Search results for: Predictive Analytics

Authors: Abdesselem Dakhli, Wajdi Bellil, Chokri Ben Amar

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DNA Barcode provides good sources of needed information to classify living species. The classification problem has to be supported with reliable methods and algorithms. To analyze species regions or entire genomes, it becomes necessary to use the similarity sequence methods. A large set of sequences can be simultaneously compared using Multiple Sequence Alignment which is known to be NP-complete. However, all the used methods are still computationally very expensive and require significant computational infrastructure. Our goal is to build predictive models that are highly accurate and interpretable. In fact, our method permits to avoid the complex problem of form and structure in different classes of organisms. The empirical data and their classification performances are compared with other methods. Evenly, in this study, we present our system which is consisted of three phases. The first one, is called transformation, is composed of three sub steps; Electron-Ion Interaction Pseudopotential (EIIP) for the codification of DNA Barcodes, Fourier Transform and Power Spectrum Signal Processing. Moreover, the second phase step is an approximation; it is empowered by the use of Multi Library Wavelet Neural Networks (MLWNN). Finally, the third one, is called the classification of DNA Barcodes, is realized by applying the algorithm of hierarchical classification.

Keywords: DNA Barcode, Electron-Ion Interaction Pseudopotential, Multi Library Wavelet Neural Networks.

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Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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In this paper, we present the human action recognition method using the variational Bayesian HMM with the Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of the Gaussian-Wishart emission model (GWEM). First, we define the Bayesian HMM based on the Dirichlet process, which allows an infinite number of Gaussian-Wishart components to support continuous emission observations. Second, we have considered an efficient variational Bayesian inference method that can be applied to drive the posterior distribution of hidden variables and model parameters for the proposed model based on training data. And then we have derived the predictive distribution that may be used to classify new action. Third, the paper proposes a process of extracting appropriate spatial-temporal feature vectors that can be used to recognize a wide range of human behaviors from input video image. Finally, we have conducted experiments that can evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the method presented is more efficient with human action recognition than existing methods.

Keywords: Human action recognition, Bayesian HMM, Dirichlet process mixture model, Gaussian-Wishart emission model, Variational Bayesian inference, Prior distribution and approximate posterior distribution, KTH dataset.

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Authors: N. Ahmed, A.J. Day, J.L. Victory L. Zeall, B. Young

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The manufacture of large-scale precision aerospace components using CNC requires a highly effective maintenance strategy to ensure that the required accuracy can be achieved over many hours of production. This paper reviews a strategy for a maintenance management system based on Failure Mode Avoidance, which uses advanced techniques and technologies to underpin a predictive maintenance strategy. It is shown how condition monitoring (CM) is important to predict potential failures in high precision machining facilities and achieve intelligent and integrated maintenance management. There are two distinct ways in which CM can be applied. One is to monitor key process parameters and observe trends which may indicate a gradual deterioration of accuracy in the product. The other is the use of CM techniques to monitor high status machine parameters enables trends to be observed which can be corrected before machine failure and downtime occurs. It is concluded that the key to developing a flexible and intelligent maintenance framework in any precision manufacturing operation is the ability to evaluate reliably and routinely machine tool condition using condition monitoring techniques within a framework of Failure Mode Avoidance.

Keywords: Maintenance, Condition Monitoring, CNC, Machining, Accuracy, Capability, Key Process Parameters, Critical Parameters

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Authors: Ravneet Kaur, Joydeep Acharya, Sudhanshu Gaur

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform manufacturing by improving shop floor processes such as production, maintenance and quality. However, industrial datasets are notoriously difficult to extract in a real-time, streaming fashion thus, negating potential AI benefits. The main example is some specialized industrial controllers that are operated by custom software which complicates the process of connecting them to an Information Technology (IT) based data acquisition network. Security concerns may also limit direct physical access to these controllers for data acquisition. To connect the Operational Technology (OT) data stored in these controllers to an AI application in a secure, reliable and available way, we propose a novel Industrial IoT (IIoT) solution in this paper. In this solution, we demonstrate how video cameras can be installed in a factory shop floor to continuously obtain images of the controller HMIs. We propose image pre-processing to segment the HMI into regions of streaming data and regions of fixed meta-data. We then evaluate the performance of multiple Optical Character Recognition (OCR) technologies such as Tesseract and Google vision to recognize the streaming data and test it for typical factory HMIs and realistic lighting conditions. Finally, we use the meta-data to match the OCR output with the temporal, domain-dependent context of the data to improve the accuracy of the output. Our IIoT solution enables reliable and efficient data extraction which will improve the performance of subsequent AI applications.

Keywords: Human machine interface, industrial internet of things, internet of things, optical character recognition, video analytic.

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Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

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In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling.

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Authors: František Šebek, Petr Kubík, Jindřich Petruška, Jiří Hůlka

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Present study is aimed on the cutting process of circular cross-section rods where the fracture is used to separate one rod into two pieces. Incorporating the phenomenological ductile fracture model into the explicit formulation of finite element method, the process can be analyzed without the necessity of realizing too many real experiments which could be expensive in case of repetitive testing in different conditions. In the present paper, the steel AISI 1045 was examined and the tensile tests of smooth and notched cylindrical bars were conducted together with biaxial testing of the notched tube specimens to calibrate material constants of selected phenomenological ductile fracture models. These were implemented into the Abaqus/Explicit through user subroutine VUMAT and used for cutting process simulation. As the calibration process is based on variables which cannot be obtained directly from experiments, numerical simulations of fracture tests are inevitable part of the calibration. Finally, experiments regarding the cutting process were carried out and predictive capability of selected fracture models is discussed. Concluding remarks then make the summary of gained experience both with the calibration and application of particular ductile fracture criteria.

Keywords: Ductile fracture, phenomenological criteria, cutting process, explicit formulation, AISI 1045 steel.

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Authors: M. Bodner, M. Scampicchio

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Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy coupled with chemometrics was used to distinguish between butter samples and non-butter samples. Further, quantification of the content of margarine in adulterated butter samples was investigated. Fingerprinting region (1400-800 cm^–1) was used to develop unsupervised pattern recognition (Principal Component Analysis, PCA), supervised modeling (Soft Independent Modelling by Class Analogy, SIMCA), classification (Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis, PLS-DA) and regression (Partial Least Squares Regression, PLS-R) models. PCA of the fingerprinting region shows a clustering of the two sample types. All samples were classified in their rightful class by SIMCA approach; however, nine adulterated samples (between 1% and 30% w/w of margarine) were classified as belonging both at the butter class and at the non-butter one. In the two-class PLS-DA model’s (R² = 0.73, RMSEP, Root Mean Square Error of Prediction = 0.26% w/w) sensitivity was 71.4% and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 100%. Its threshold was calculated at 7% w/w of margarine in adulterated butter samples. Finally, PLS-R model (R² = 0.84, RMSEP = 16.54%) was developed. PLS-DA was a suitable classification tool and PLS-R a proper quantification approach. Results demonstrate that FT-IR spectroscopy combined with PLS-R can be used as a rapid, simple and safe method to identify pure butter samples from adulterated ones and to determine the grade of adulteration of margarine in butter samples.

Keywords: Adulterated butter, margarine, PCA, PLS-DA, PLS-R, SIMCA.

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Authors: Abeer Aljohani

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The COVID-19 virus spread has been one of the extreme pandemics across the globe. It is also referred as corona virus which is a contagious disease that continuously mutates into numerous variants. Currently, the B.1.1.529 variant labeled as Omicron is detected in South Africa. The huge spread of COVID-19 disease has affected several lives and has surged exceptional pressure on the healthcare systems worldwide. Also, everyday life and the global economy have been at stake. Numerous COVID-19 cases have produced a huge burden on hospitals as well as health workers. To reduce this burden, this paper predicts COVID-19 disease based on the symptoms and medical history of the patient. As machine learning is a widely accepted area and gives promising results for healthcare, this research presents an architecture for COVID-19 detection using ML techniques integrated with feature dimensionality reduction. This paper uses a standard University of California Irvine (UCI) dataset for predicting COVID-19 disease. This dataset comprises symptoms of 5434 patients. This paper also compares several supervised ML techniques on the presented architecture. The architecture has also utilized 10-fold cross validation process for generalization and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique for feature reduction. Standard parameters are used to evaluate the proposed architecture including F1-Score, precision, accuracy, recall, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Area under Curve (AUC). The results depict that Decision tree, Random Forest and neural networks outperform all other state-of-the-art ML techniques. This result can be used to effectively identify COVID-19 infection cases.

Keywords: Supervised machine learning, COVID-19 prediction, healthcare analytics, Random Forest, Neural Network.

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Authors: Nieves M. C. Talavera-Prieto, Abel G. M. Ferreira, António T. G. Portugal, Rui J. Moreira, Jaime B. Santos

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The knowledge of biodiesel density over large ranges of temperature and pressure is important for predicting the behavior of fuel injection and combustion systems in diesel engines, and for the optimization of such systems. In this study, cottonseed oil was transesterified into biodiesel and its density was measured at temperatures between 288 K and 358 K and pressures between 0.1 MPa and 30 MPa, with expanded uncertainty estimated as ±1.6 kg⋅m- 3. Experimental pressure-volume-temperature (pVT) cottonseed data was used along with literature data relative to other 18 biodiesels, in order to build a database used to test the correlation of density with temperarure and pressure using the Goharshadi–Morsali–Abbaspour equation of state (GMA EoS). To our knowledge, this is the first that density measurements are presented for cottonseed biodiesel under such high pressures, and the GMA EoS used to model biodiesel density. The new tested EoS allowed correlations within 0.2 kg·m-3 corresponding to average relative deviations within 0.02%. The built database was used to develop and test a new full predictive model derived from the observed linear relation between density and degree of unsaturation (DU), which depended from biodiesel FAMEs profile. The average density deviation of this method was only about 3 kg.m-3 within the temperature and pressure limits of application. These results represent appreciable improvements in the context of density prediction at high pressure when compared with other equations of state.

Keywords: Biodiesel, Correlation, Density, Equation of state, Prediction.

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Authors: L. A. Muhammad, M. S. Argungu

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Educational data mining (EDM) has recorded substantial considerations. Techniques of data mining in one way or the other have been proposed to dig out out-of-sight knowledge in educational data. The result of the study got assists academic institutions in further enhancing their process of learning and methods of passing knowledge to students. Consequently, the performance of students boasts and the educational products are by no doubt enhanced. This study adopted a student performance prediction model premised on techniques of data mining with Students' Essential Features (SEF). SEF are linked to the learner's interactivity with the e-learning management system. The performance of the student's predictive model is assessed by a set of classifiers, viz. Bayes Network, Logistic Regression, and Reduce Error Pruning Tree (REP). Consequently, ensemble methods of Bagging, Boosting, and Random Forest (RF) are applied to improve the performance of these single classifiers. The study reveals that the result shows a robust affinity between learners' behaviors and their academic attainment. Result from the study shows that the REP Tree and its ensemble record the highest accuracy of 83.33% using SEF. Hence, in terms of the Receiver Operating Curve (ROC), boosting method of REP Tree records 0.903, which is the best. This result further demonstrates the dependability of the proposed model.

Keywords: Ensemble, bagging, Random Forest, boosting, data mining, classifiers, machine learning.

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Authors: Omar M. Elmabrouk., Roaa Y. Taha., Najat M. Ebrahim, Sabbreen A. Mohammed

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Power transformers are the most crucial part of power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. This part is maintained using predictive or condition-based maintenance approach. The diagnosis of power transformer condition is performed based on Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA). There are five main methods utilized for analyzing these gases. These methods are International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) gas ratio, Key Gas, Roger gas ratio, Doernenburg, and Duval Triangle. Moreover, due to the importance of the transformers, there is a need for an accurate technique to diagnose and hence predict the transformer condition. The main objective of this technique is to avoid the transformer faults and hence to maintain the power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. In this paper, the DGA was utilized based on the data collected from the transformer records available in the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) which is located in Benghazi-Libya. The Fuzzy Logic (FL) technique was implemented as a diagnostic approach based on IEC gas ratio method. The FL technique gave better results and approved to be used as an accurate prediction technique for power transformer faults. Also, this technique is approved to be a quite interesting for the readers and the concern researchers in the area of FL mathematics and power transformer.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, dissolved gas-in-oil analysis, DGA, prediction, power transformer.

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Authors: R.V Pawar, P.P.Kajave, S.N.Mali

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The speech signal conveys information about the identity of the speaker. The area of speaker identification is concerned with extracting the identity of the person speaking the utterance. As speech interaction with computers becomes more pervasive in activities such as the telephone, financial transactions and information retrieval from speech databases, the utility of automatically identifying a speaker is based solely on vocal characteristic. This paper emphasizes on text dependent speaker identification, which deals with detecting a particular speaker from a known population. The system prompts the user to provide speech utterance. System identifies the user by comparing the codebook of speech utterance with those of the stored in the database and lists, which contain the most likely speakers, could have given that speech utterance. The speech signal is recorded for N speakers further the features are extracted. Feature extraction is done by means of LPC coefficients, calculating AMDF, and DFT. The neural network is trained by applying these features as input parameters. The features are stored in templates for further comparison. The features for the speaker who has to be identified are extracted and compared with the stored templates using Back Propogation Algorithm. Here, the trained network corresponds to the output; the input is the extracted features of the speaker to be identified. The network does the weight adjustment and the best match is found to identify the speaker. The number of epochs required to get the target decides the network performance.

Keywords: Average Mean Distance function, Backpropogation, Linear Predictive Coding, MultilayeredPerceptron,

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Authors: H. B. Mehta, Vipul M. Patel, Jyotirmay Banerjee

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The present paper discusses the prediction of gas-liquid two-phase frictional pressure drop in a 2.12 mm horizontal circular minichannel using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The experimental results are obtained with air as gas phase and water as liquid phase. The superficial gas velocity is kept in the range of 0.0236 m/s to 0.4722 m/s while the values of 0.0944 m/s, 0.1416 m/s and 0.1889 m/s are considered for superficial liquid velocity. The experimental results are predicted using different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Networks used for prediction are radial basis, generalised regression, linear layer, cascade forward back propagation, feed forward back propagation, feed forward distributed time delay, layer recurrent, and Elman back propagation. Transfer functions used for networks are Linear (PURELIN), Logistic sigmoid (LOGSIG), tangent sigmoid (TANSIG) and Gaussian RBF. Combination of networks and transfer functions give different possible neural network models. These models are compared for Mean Absolute Relative Deviation (MARD) and Mean Relative Deviation (MRD) to identify the best predictive model of ANN.

Keywords: Minichannel, Two-Phase Flow, Frictional Pressure Drop, ANN, MARD, MRD.

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Authors: Dimitrios E. Kontaxis, George Litainas, Dimitrios P. Ptochos, Vaggelis P. Ptochos, Sotirios P. Ptochos, Dimitrios Beletsis, Konstantinos Kritikakis, Milan Sunaric

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Real-time monitoring of the supply chain conditions and procedures is a critical element for the optimal coordination and safety of the deliveries, as well as for the minimization of the delivery time and cost. Real time monitoring requires IoT data streams, which are related to the conditions of the products and the means of transport (e.g., location, temperature/humidity conditions, kinematic state, ambient light conditions, etc.). These streams are generated by battery-based IoT tracking devices, equipped with appropriate sensors, and are transmitted to a cloud-based back-end system. Proper handling and processing of the IoT data streams, using predictive and artificial intelligence algorithms, can provide significant and useful results, which can be exploited by the supply chain stakeholders in order to enhance their financial benefits, as well as the efficiency, security, transparency, coordination and sustainability of the supply chain procedures. The technology, the features and the characteristics of a complete, proprietary system, including hardware, firmware and software tools - developed in the context of a co-funded R&D program - are addressed and presented in this paper. 

Keywords: IoT embedded electronics, real-time monitoring, tracking device, sensor platform

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Authors: Kamaldeep Kaur, Arvinder Kaur, Ruchika Malhotra

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The aim of this paper is to rank the impact of Object Oriented(OO) metrics in fault prediction modeling using Artificial Neural Networks(ANNs). Past studies on empirical validation of object oriented metrics as fault predictors using ANNs have focused on the predictive quality of neural networks versus standard statistical techniques. In this empirical study we turn our attention to the capability of ANNs in ranking the impact of these explanatory metrics on fault proneness. In ANNs data analysis approach, there is no clear method of ranking the impact of individual metrics. Five ANN based techniques are studied which rank object oriented metrics in predicting fault proneness of classes. These techniques are i) overall connection weights method ii) Garson-s method iii) The partial derivatives methods iv) The Input Perturb method v) the classical stepwise methods. We develop and evaluate different prediction models based on the ranking of the metrics by the individual techniques. The models based on overall connection weights and partial derivatives methods have been found to be most accurate.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANNS), Backpropagation, Fault Prediction Modeling.

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Authors: Liping Jing, Michael K. Ng, Tieyong Zeng

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Microarray data profiles gene expression on a whole genome scale, therefore, it provides a good way to study associations between gene expression and occurrence or progression of cancer. More and more researchers realized that microarray data is helpful to predict cancer sample. However, the high dimension of gene expressions is much larger than the sample size, which makes this task very difficult. Therefore, how to identify the significant genes causing cancer becomes emergency and also a hot and hard research topic. Many feature selection algorithms have been proposed in the past focusing on improving cancer predictive accuracy at the expense of ignoring the correlations between the features. In this work, a novel framework (named by SGS) is presented for stable gene selection and efficient cancer prediction . The proposed framework first performs clustering algorithm to find the gene groups where genes in each group have higher correlation coefficient, and then selects the significant genes in each group with Bayesian Lasso and important gene groups with group Lasso, and finally builds prediction model based on the shrinkage gene space with efficient classification algorithm (such as, SVM, 1NN, Regression and etc.). Experiment results on real world data show that the proposed framework often outperforms the existing feature selection and prediction methods, say SAM, IG and Lasso-type prediction model.

Keywords: Gene Selection, Cancer Prediction, Lasso, Clustering, Classification.

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Authors: M. Farahnakian, M.R. Razfar, S. Elhami-Joosheghan

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This paper presents an approach for the determination of the optimal cutting parameters (spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut and engagement) leading to minimum surface roughness in face milling of high silicon stainless steel by coupling neural network (NN) and Electromagnetism-like Algorithm (EM). In this regard, the advantages of statistical experimental design technique, experimental measurements, artificial neural network, and Electromagnetism-like optimization method are exploited in an integrated manner. To this end, numerous experiments on this stainless steel were conducted to obtain surface roughness values. A predictive model for surface roughness is created by using a back propogation neural network, then the optimization problem was solved by using EM optimization. Additional experiments were performed to validate optimum surface roughness value predicted by EM algorithm. It is clearly seen that a good agreement is observed between the predicted values by EM coupled with feed forward neural network and experimental measurements. The obtained results show that the EM algorithm coupled with back propogation neural network is an efficient and accurate method in approaching the global minimum of surface roughness in face milling.

Keywords: cutting parameters, face milling, surface roughness, artificial neural network, Electromagnetism-like algorithm,

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Authors: Rachid Zentar, Mokrane Bala, Pascal Boustingorry

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The prediction of the rheological behavior of concrete is at the center of current concerns of the concrete industry for different reasons. The shortage of good quality standard materials combined with variable properties of available materials imposes to improve existing models to take into account these variations at the design stage of concrete. The main reasons for improving the predictive models are, of course, saving time and cost at the design stage as well as to optimize concrete performances. In this study, we will highlight the different properties of the granular mixtures that affect the rheological properties of concrete. Our objective is to identify the intrinsic parameters of the aggregates which make it possible to predict the yield stress of concrete. The work was done using two typologies of grains: crushed and rolled aggregates. The experimental results have shown that the rheology of concrete is improved by increasing the packing density of the granular mixture using rolled aggregates. The experimental program realized allowed to model the yield stress of concrete by a modified model of Chateau et al. through a dimensionless parameter following Krieger-Dougherty law. The modelling confirms that the yield stress of concrete depends not only on the properties of cement paste but also on the packing density of the granular skeleton and the shape of grains.

Keywords: Crushed aggregates, intrinsic viscosity, packing density, rolled aggregates, slump, yield stress of concrete.

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Authors: Farhan Ismaeel Dakheel, Raoof Smko, K. Negrat, Abdelsalam Almarimi

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In this paper we used data mining techniques to identify outlier patients who are using large amount of drugs over a long period of time. Any healthcare or health insurance system should deal with the quantities of drugs utilized by chronic diseases patients. In Kingdom of Bahrain, about 20% of health budget is spent on medications. For the managers of healthcare systems, there is no enough information about the ways of drug utilization by chronic diseases patients, is there any misuse or is there outliers patients. In this work, which has been done in cooperation with information department in the Bahrain Defence Force hospital; we select the data for Cardiac patients in the period starting from 1/1/2008 to December 31/12/2008 to be the data for the model in this paper. We used three techniques for finding the drug utilization for cardiac patients. First we applied a clustering technique, followed by measuring of clustering validity, and finally we applied a decision tree as classification algorithm. The clustering results is divided into three clusters according to the drug utilization, for 1603 patients, who received 15,806 prescriptions during this period can be partitioned into three groups, where 23 patients (2.59%) who received 1316 prescriptions (8.32%) are classified to be outliers. The classification algorithm shows that the use of average drug utilization and the age, and the gender of the patient can be considered to be the main predictive factors in the induced model.

Keywords: Data Mining, Clustering, Classification, Drug Utilization..

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Authors: Haifeng Wang, Haili Zhang

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Most movie recommendation systems have been developed for customers to find items of interest. This work introduces a predictive model usable by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) who are in need of a data-based and analytical approach to stock proper movies for local audiences and retain more customers. We used classification models to extract features from thousands of customers’ demographic, behavioral and social information to predict their movie genre preference. In the implementation, a Gaussian kernel support vector machine (SVM) classification model and a logistic regression model were established to extract features from sample data and their test error-in-sample were compared. Comparison of error-out-sample was also made under different Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) dimensions in the machine learning algorithm to find and prevent overfitting. Gaussian kernel SVM prediction model can correctly predict movie genre preferences in 85% of positive cases. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 93% with a smaller VC dimension and less overfitting. These findings advance our understanding of how to use machine learning approach to predict customers’ preferences with a small data set and design prediction tools for these enterprises.

Keywords: Computational social science, movie preference, machine learning, SVM.

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Authors: Shobha Sharma, Amita Dev

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This research paper presents highly optimized barrel shifter at 22nm Hi K metal gate strained Si technology node. This barrel shifter is having a unique combination of static and dynamic body bias which gives lowest power delay product. This power delay product is compared with the same circuit at same technology node with static forward biasing at ‘supply/2’ and also with normal reverse substrate biasing and still found to be the lowest. The power delay product of this barrel sifter is .39362X10-17J and is lowered by approximately 78% to reference proposed barrel shifter at 32nm bulk CMOS technology. Power delay product of barrel shifter at 22nm Hi K Metal gate technology with normal reverse substrate bias is 2.97186933X10-17J and can be compared with this design’s PDP of .39362X10-17J. This design uses both static and dynamic substrate biasing and also has approximately 96% lower power delay product compared to only forward body biased at half of supply voltage. The NMOS model used are predictive technology models of Arizona state university and the simulations to be carried out using HSPICE simulator.

Keywords: Dynamic body biasing, highly optimized barrel shifter, PDP, Static body biasing.

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Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

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Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to prevent deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network. 

Keywords: Accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, K-mean, road safety.

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Authors: Shang-En Yu

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Human society, there are many uncertainties, such as economic growth rate forecast of the financial crisis, many scholars have, since the the Song Chissom two scholars in 1993 the concept of the so-called fuzzy time series (Fuzzy Time Series)different mode to deal with these problems, a previous study, however, usually does not consider the relevant variables selected and fuzzy process based solely on subjective opinions the fuzzy semantic discrete, so can not objectively reflect the characteristics of the data set, in addition to carrying outforecasts are often fuzzy rules as equally important, failed to consider the importance of each fuzzy rule. For these reasons, the variable selection (Factor Selection) through self-organizing map (Self-Organizing Map, SOM) and proposed high-end weighted multivariate fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy neural network (Fuzzy-BPN), and using the the sequential weighted average operator (Ordered Weighted Averaging operator, OWA) weighted prediction. Therefore, in order to verify the proposed method, the Taiwan stock exchange (Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation) Taiwan Weighted Stock Index (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, TAIEX) as experimental forecast target, in order to filter the appropriate variables in the experiment Finally, included in other studies in recent years mode in conjunction with this study, the results showed that the predictive ability of this study further improve.

Keywords: Heterogeneity, residential mortgage loans, foreclosure.

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Authors: Panagiotis Karadimos, Leonidas Anthopoulos

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Predicting the actual cost and duration in construction projects concern a continuous and existing problem for the construction sector. This paper addresses this problem with modern methods and data available from past public construction projects. 39 bridge projects, constructed in Greece, with a similar type of available data were examined. Considering each project’s attributes with the actual cost and the actual duration, correlation analysis is performed and the most appropriate predictive project variables are defined. Additionally, the most efficient subgroup of variables is selected with the use of the WEKA application, through its attribute selection function. The selected variables are used as input neurons for neural network models through correlation analysis. For constructing neural network models, the application FANN Tool is used. The optimum neural network model, for predicting the actual cost, produced a mean squared error with a value of 3.84886e-05 and it was based on the budgeted cost and the quantity of deck concrete. The optimum neural network model, for predicting the actual duration, produced a mean squared error with a value of 5.89463e-05 and it also was based on the budgeted cost and the amount of deck concrete.

Keywords: Actual cost and duration, attribute selection, bridge projects, neural networks, predicting models, FANN TOOL, WEKA.

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: Fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity.

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Authors: Salem Alsanusi, Loubna Bentaher

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Response Surface Methods (RSM) provide statistically validated predictive models that can then be manipulated for finding optimal process configurations. Variation transmitted to responses from poorly controlled process factors can be accounted for by the mathematical technique of propagation of error (POE), which facilitates ‘finding the flats’ on the surfaces generated by RSM. The dual response approach to RSM captures the standard deviation of the output as well as the average. It accounts for unknown sources of variation. Dual response plus propagation of error (POE) provides a more useful model of overall response variation. In our case, we implemented this technique in predicting compressive strength of concrete of 28 days in age. Since 28 days is quite time consuming, while it is important to ensure the quality control process. This paper investigates the potential of using design of experiments (DOE-RSM) to predict the compressive strength of concrete at 28th day. Data used for this study was carried out from experiment schemes at university of Benghazi, civil engineering department. A total of 114 sets of data were implemented. ACI mix design method was utilized for the mix design. No admixtures were used, only the main concrete mix constituents such as cement, coarseaggregate, fine aggregate and water were utilized in all mixes. Different mix proportions of the ingredients and different water cement ratio were used. The proposed mathematical models are capable of predicting the required concrete compressive strength of concrete from early ages.

Keywords: Mix proportioning, response surface methodology, compressive strength, optimal design.

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Authors: K.Alkhulaifi, M. Hamdalla

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Most of ignition delay correlations studies have been developed in a constant volume bombs which cannot capture the dynamic variation in pressure and temperature during the ignition delay as in real engines. Watson, Assanis et. al. and Hardenberg and Hase correlations have been developed based on experimental data of diesel engines. However, they showed limited predictive ability of ignition delay when compared to experimental results. The objective of the study was to investigate the dependency of ignition delay time on engine brake power. An experimental investigation of the effect of automotive diesel and water diesel emulsion fuels on ignition delay under steady state conditions of a direct injection diesel engine was conducted. A four cylinder, direct injection naturally aspirated diesel engine was used in this experiment over a wide range of engine speeds and two engine loads. The ignition delay experimental data were compared with predictions of Assanis et. al. and Watson ignition delay correlations. The results of the experimental investigation were then used to develop a new ignition delay correlation. The newly developed ignition delay correlation has shown a better agreement with the experimental data than Assanis et. al. and Watson when using automotive diesel and water diesel emulsion fuels especially at low to medium engine speeds at both loads. In addition, the second derivative of cylinder pressure which is the most widely used method in determining the start of combustion was investigated.

Keywords: gnition delay correlation, water diesel emulsion, direct injection diesel engine

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Authors: Tebogo Emma Makaba, Barnabas Ndlovu Gatsheni

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The cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria both located in the Gauteng province are separated by a distance of 58 km. The traffic queues on the Ben Schoeman freeway which connects these two cities can stretch for almost 1.5 km. Vehicle traffic congestion impacts negatively on the business and the commuter’s quality of life. The goal of this paper is to identify variables that influence the flow of traffic and to design a vehicle traffic prediction model, which will predict the traffic flow pattern in advance. The model will unable motorist to be able to make appropriate travel decisions ahead of time. The data used was collected by Mikro’s Traffic Monitoring (MTM). Multi-Layer perceptron (MLP) was used individually to construct the model and the MLP was also combined with Bagging ensemble method to training the data. The cross—validation method was used for evaluating the models. The results obtained from the techniques were compared using predictive and prediction costs. The cost was computed using combination of the loss matrix and the confusion matrix. The predicted models designed shows that the status of the traffic flow on the freeway can be predicted using the following parameters travel time, average speed, traffic volume and day of month. The implications of this work is that commuters will be able to spend less time travelling on the route and spend time with their families. The logistics industry will save more than twice what they are currently spending.

Keywords: Bagging ensemble methods, confusion matrix, multi-layer perceptron, vehicle traffic flow.

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Authors: S. M. Seyedhosseini, A. Makui, M. Ghadami

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Globalization and therefore increasing tight competition among companies, have resulted to increase the importance of making well-timed decision. Devising and employing effective strategies, that are flexible and adaptive to changing market, stand a greater chance of being effective in the long-term. In other side, a clear focus on managing the entire product lifecycle has emerged as critical areas for investment. Therefore, applying wellorganized tools to employ past experience in new case, helps to make proper and managerial decisions. Case based reasoning (CBR) is based on a means of solving a new problem by using or adapting solutions to old problems. In this paper, an adapted CBR model with k-nearest neighbor (K-NN) is employed to provide suggestions for better decision making which are adopted for a given product in the middle of life phase. The set of solutions are weighted by CBR in the principle of group decision making. Wrapper approach of genetic algorithm is employed to generate optimal feature subsets. The dataset of the department store, including various products which are collected among two years, have been used. K-fold approach is used to evaluate the classification accuracy rate. Empirical results are compared with classical case based reasoning algorithm which has no special process for feature selection, CBR-PCA algorithm based on filter approach feature selection, and Artificial Neural Network. The results indicate that the predictive performance of the model, compare with two CBR algorithms, in specific case is more effective.

Keywords: Case based reasoning, Genetic algorithm, Groupdecision making, Product management.

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Authors: S. Aberkane, N. Djabali, S. Fafi, A. Baghezza

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Chronic illnesses affect many Algerians. It is possible to investigate the impact of illness representations and coping on quality of life and whether illness representations are indirectly associated with quality of life through their influence on coping. This study aims at investigating the relationship between illness perception, coping strategies and quality of life with chronic illness. Illness perceptions are indirectly associated with the quality of life through their influence on coping mediation. A sample of 316 participants with chronic illness living in the region of Batna, Algeria, has been adopted in this study. A correlation statistical analysis is used to determine the relationship between illness perception, coping strategies, and quality of life. Multiple regression analysis was employed to highlight the predictive ability of the dimensions of illness perception and coping strategies on the dependent variables of quality of life, where mediation analysis is considered in the exploration of the indirect effect significance of the mediator. This study provides insights about the relationship between illness perception, coping strategies and quality of life in the considered sample (r = 0.39, p < 0.01). Therefore, it proves that there is an effect of illness identity perception, external and medical attributions related to emotional role, physical functioning, and mental health perceived, and these were fully mediated by the asking for assistance (c’= 0.04, p < 0.05), the guarding (c’= 0.00, p < 0.05), and the task persistence strategy (c’= 0.05, p < 0.05). The findings imply partial support for the common-sense model of illness representations in a chronic illness population. Directions for future research are highlighted, as well as implications for psychotherapeutic interventions which target unhelpful beliefs and maladaptive coping strategies (e.g., cognitive behavioral therapy).

Keywords: Chronic illness, coping, illness perception, quality of life, self-regulation model.

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