Search results for: Mean Squared Error
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1275

Search results for: Mean Squared Error

1185 Phase Noise Impact on BER in Space Communication

Authors: Ondrej Baran, Miroslav Kasal, Petr Vagner, Tomas Urbanec

Abstract:

This paper deals with the modeling and the evaluation of a multiplicative phase noise influence on the bit error ratio in a general space communication system. Our research is focused on systems with multi-state phase shift keying modulation techniques and it turns out, that the phase noise significantly affects the bit error rate, especially for higher signal to noise ratios. These results come from a system model created in Matlab environment and are shown in a form of constellation diagrams and bit error rate dependencies. The change of a user data bit rate is also considered and included into simulation results. Obtained outcomes confirm theoretical presumptions.

Keywords: Additive thermal noise, AWGN, BER, bit error rate, multiplicative phase noise, phase shift keying.

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1184 Optimization of Bit Error Rate and Power of Ad-hoc Networks Using Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Anjana Choudhary

Abstract:

The ad hoc networks are the future of wireless technology as everyone wants fast and accurate error free information so keeping this in mind Bit Error Rate (BER) and power is optimized in this research paper by using the Genetic Algorithm (GA). The digital modulation techniques used for this paper are Binary Phase Shift Keying (BPSK), M-ary Phase Shift Keying (M-ary PSK), and Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (QAM). This work is implemented on Wireless Ad Hoc Networks (WLAN). Then it is analyze which modulation technique is performing well to optimize the BER and power of WLAN.

Keywords: Bit Error Rate, Genetic Algorithm, Power, Phase Shift Keying, Quadrature Amplitude Modulation, Signal to Noise Ratio, Wireless Ad Hoc Networks.

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1183 Error Rate Performance Comparisons of Precoding Schemes over Fading Channels for Multiuser MIMO

Authors: M. Arulvizhi

Abstract:

In Multiuser MIMO communication systems, interuser interference has a strong impact on the transmitted signals. Precoding technique schemes are employed for multiuser broadcast channels to suppress an interuser interference. Different Linear and nonlinear precoding schemes are there. For the massive system dimension, it is difficult to design an appropriate precoding algorithm with low computational complexity and good error rate performance at the same time over fading channels. This paper describes the error rate performance of precoding schemes over fading channels with the assumption of perfect channel state information at the transmitter. To estimate the bit error rate performance, different propagation environments namely, Rayleigh, Rician and Nakagami fading channels have been offered. This paper presents the error rate performance comparison of these fading channels based on precoding methods like Channel Inversion and Dirty paper coding for multiuser broadcasting system. MATLAB simulation has been used. It is observed that multiuser system achieves better error rate performance by Dirty paper coding over Rayleigh fading channel.

Keywords: Multiuser MIMO, channel inversion precoding, dirty paper coding, fading channels, BER.

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1182 On Finite Wordlength Properties of Block-Floating-Point Arithmetic

Authors: Abhijit Mitra

Abstract:

A special case of floating point data representation is block floating point format where a block of operands are forced to have a joint exponent term. This paper deals with the finite wordlength properties of this data format. The theoretical errors associated with the error model for block floating point quantization process is investigated with the help of error distribution functions. A fast and easy approximation formula for calculating signal-to-noise ratio in quantization to block floating point format is derived. This representation is found to be a useful compromise between fixed point and floating point format due to its acceptable numerical error properties over a wide dynamic range.

Keywords: Block floating point, Roundoff error, Block exponent dis-tribution fuction, Signal factor.

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1181 Optimized Calculation of Hourly Price Forward Curve (HPFC)

Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

Abstract:

This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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1180 Refitting Equations for Peak Ground Acceleration in Light of the PF-L Database

Authors: M. Breška, I. Peruš, V. Stankovski

Abstract:

The number of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) used for predicting peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the number of earthquake recordings that have been used for fitting these equations has increased in the past decades. The current PF-L database contains 3550 recordings. Since the GMPEs frequently model the peak ground acceleration the goal of the present study was to refit a selection of 44 of the existing equation models for PGA in light of the latest data. The algorithm Levenberg-Marquardt was used for fitting the coefficients of the equations and the results are evaluated both quantitatively by presenting the root mean squared error (RMSE) and qualitatively by drawing graphs of the five best fitted equations. The RMSE was found to be as low as 0.08 for the best equation models. The newly estimated coefficients vary from the values published in the original works.

Keywords: Ground Motion Prediction Equations, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, refitting PF-L database.

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1179 Comparative Study of Some Adaptive Fuzzy Algorithms for Manipulator Control

Authors: Sudeept Mohan, Surekha Bhanot

Abstract:

The problem of manipulator control is a highly complex problem of controlling a system which is multi-input, multioutput, non-linear and time variant. In this paper some adaptive fuzzy, and a new hybrid fuzzy control algorithm have been comparatively evaluated through simulations, for manipulator control. The adaptive fuzzy controllers consist of self-organizing, self-tuning, and coarse/fine adaptive fuzzy schemes. These controllers are tested for different trajectories and for varying manipulator parameters through simulations. Various performance indices like the RMS error, steady state error and maximum error are used for comparison. It is observed that the self-organizing fuzzy controller gives the best performance. The proposed hybrid fuzzy plus integral error controller also performs remarkably well, given its simple structure.

Keywords: Hybrid fuzzy, Self-organizing, Self-tuning, Trajectory tracking.

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1178 Are Asia-Pacific Stock Markets Predictable? Evidence from Wavelet-based Fractional Integration Estimator

Authors: Pei. P. Tan, Don. U.A. Galagedera, Elizabeth A.Maharaj

Abstract:

This paper examines predictability in stock return in developed and emergingmarkets by testing long memory in stock returns using wavelet approach. Wavelet-based maximum likelihood estimator of the fractional integration estimator is superior to the conventional Hurst exponent and Geweke and Porter-Hudak estimator in terms of asymptotic properties and mean squared error. We use 4-year moving windows to estimate the fractional integration parameter. Evidence suggests that stock return may not be predictable indeveloped countries of the Asia-Pacificregion. However, predictability of stock return insome developing countries in this region such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines may not be ruled out. Stock return in the Thailand stock market appears to be not predictable after the political crisis in 2008.

Keywords: Asia-Pacific stock market, long-memory, return predictability, wavelet

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1177 Effective Image and Video Error Concealment using RST-Invariant Partial Patch Matching Model and Exemplar-based Inpainting

Authors: Shiraz Ahmad, Zhe-Ming Lu

Abstract:

An effective visual error concealment method has been presented by employing a robust rotation, scale, and translation (RST) invariant partial patch matching model (RSTI-PPMM) and exemplar-based inpainting. While the proposed robust and inherently feature-enhanced texture synthesis approach ensures the generation of excellent and perceptually plausible visual error concealment results, the outlier pruning property guarantees the significant quality improvements, both quantitatively and qualitatively. No intermediate user-interaction is required for the pre-segmented media and the presented method follows a bootstrapping approach for an automatic visual loss recovery and the image and video error concealment.

Keywords: Exemplar-based image and video inpainting, outlierpruning, RST-invariant partial patch matching model (RSTI-PPMM), visual error concealment.

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1176 Impulse Noise Reduction in Brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging Using Fuzzy Filters

Authors: Benjamin Y. M. Kwan, Hon Keung Kwan

Abstract:

Noise contamination in a magnetic resonance (MR) image could occur during acquisition, storage, and transmission in which effective filtering is required to avoid repeating the MR procedure. In this paper, an iterative asymmetrical triangle fuzzy filter with moving average center (ATMAVi filter) is used to reduce different levels of salt and pepper noise in a brain MR image. Besides visual inspection on filtered images, the mean squared error (MSE) is used as an objective measurement. When compared with the median filter, simulation results indicate that the ATMAVi filter is effective especially for filtering a higher level noise (such as noise density = 0.45) using a smaller window size (such as 3x3) when operated iteratively or using a larger window size (such as 5x5) when operated non-iteratively.

Keywords: Brain images, Fuzzy filters, Magnetic resonance imaging, Salt and pepper noise reduction.

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1175 Implicit Lyapunov Control of Multi-Control Hamiltonians Systems Based On the State Error

Authors: Fangfang Meng, Shuang Cong

Abstract:

In the closed quantum system, if the control system is strongly regular and all other eigenstates are directly coupled to the target state, the control system can be asymptotically stabilized at the target eigenstate by the Lyapunov control based on the state error. However, if the control system is not strongly regular or as long as there is one eigenstate not directly coupled to the target state, the situations will become complicated. In this paper, we propose an implicit Lyapunov control method based on the state error to solve the convergence problems for these two degenerate cases. And at the same time, we expand the target state from the eigenstate to the arbitrary pure state. Especially, the proposed method is also applicable in the control system with multi-control Hamiltonians. On this basis, the convergence of the control systems is analyzed using the LaSalle invariance principle. Furthermore, the relation between the implicit Lyapunov functions of the state distance and the state error is investigated. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed implicit Lyapunov control method. The comparisons of the control effect using the implicit Lyapunov control method based on the state distance with that of the state error are given.

Keywords: Implicit Lyapunov control, state error, degenerate cases, convergence.

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1174 Error Analysis of Nonconventional Electrical Moisture-meter under Simplified Conditions

Authors: Kamil Ďurana, Robert Černý

Abstract:

An electrical apparatus for measuring moisture content was developed by our laboratory and uses dependence of electrical properties on water content in studied material. Error analysis of the apparatus was run by measuring different volumes of water in a simplified specimen, i.e. hollow plexiglass block, in order to avoid as many side-effects as possible. Obtained data were processed using both basic and advanced statistics and results were compared with each other. The influence of water content on accuracy of measured data was studied as well as the influence of variation of apparatus' proper arrangement or factual methodics of its usage. The overall coefficient of variation was 4%. There was no trend found in results of error dependence on water content. Comparison with current surveys led to a conclusion, that the studied apparatus can be used for indirect measurement of water content in porous materials, with expectable error and under known conditions. Factual experiments with porous materials are not involved, but are currently under investigation.

Keywords: device, capacitance method, error analysis, moisture meter

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1173 Discrete Estimation of Spectral Density for Alpha Stable Signals Observed with an Additive Error

Authors: R. Sabre, W. Horrigue, J. C. Simon

Abstract:

This paper is interested in two difficulties encountered in practice when observing a continuous time process. The first is that we cannot observe a process over a time interval; we only take discrete observations. The second is the process frequently observed with a constant additive error. It is important to give an estimator of the spectral density of such a process taking into account the additive observation error and the choice of the discrete observation times. In this work, we propose an estimator based on the spectral smoothing of the periodogram by the polynomial Jackson kernel reducing the additive error. In order to solve the aliasing phenomenon, this estimator is constructed from observations taken at well-chosen times so as to reduce the estimator to the field where the spectral density is not zero. We show that the proposed estimator is asymptotically unbiased and consistent. Thus we obtain an estimate solving the two difficulties concerning the choice of the instants of observations of a continuous time process and the observations affected by a constant error.

Keywords: Spectral density, stable processes, aliasing, periodogram.

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1172 Deep Learning for Renewable Power Forecasting: An Approach Using LSTM Neural Networks

Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: Deep learning, long-short-term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting.

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1171 Single Event Transient Tolerance Analysis in 8051 Microprocessor Using Scan Chain

Authors: Jun Sung Go, Jong Kang Park, Jong Tae Kim

Abstract:

As semi-conductor manufacturing technology evolves; the single event transient problem becomes more significant issue. Single event transient has a critical impact on both combinational and sequential logic circuits, so it is important to evaluate the soft error tolerance of the circuits at the design stage. In this paper, we present a soft error detecting simulation using scan chain. The simulation model generates a single event transient randomly in the circuit, and detects the soft error during the execution of the test patterns. We verified this model by inserting a scan chain in an 8051 microprocessor using 65 nm CMOS technology. While the test patterns generated by ATPG program are passing through the scan chain, we insert a single event transient and detect the number of soft errors per sub-module. The experiments show that the soft error rates per cell area of the SFR module is 277% larger than other modules.

Keywords: Scan chain, single event transient, soft error, 8051 processor.

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1170 Correction of Frequent English Writing Errors by Using Coded Indirect Corrective Feedback and Error Treatment

Authors: Chaiwat Tantarangsee

Abstract:

The purposes of this study are 1) to study the frequent English writing errors of students registering the course: Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and 2) to find out the results of writing error correction by using coded indirect corrective feedback and writing error treatments. Samples include 28 2nd year English Major students, Faculty of Education, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Tool for experimental study includes the lesson plan of the course; Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and tool for data collection includes 4 writing tests of short texts. The research findings disclose that frequent English writing errors found in this course comprise 7 types of grammatical errors, namely Fragment sentence, Subject-verb agreement, Wrong form of verb tense, Singular or plural noun endings, Run-ons sentence, Wrong form of verb pattern and Lack of parallel structure. Moreover, it is found that the results of writing error correction by using coded indirect corrective feedback and error treatment reveal the overall reduction of the frequent English writing errors and the increase of students’ achievement in the writing of short texts with the significance at .05.

Keywords: Coded indirect corrective feedback, error correction, error treatment, frequent English writing errors.

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1169 Investigation of Drying Kinetics of Viscose Yarn Bobbins

Authors: Ugur Akyol, Dinçer Akal, Ahmet Cihan, Kamil Kahveci

Abstract:

This study is concerned with the investigation of the suitability of several empirical and semi-empirical drying models available in the literature to define drying behavior of viscose yarn bobbins. For this purpose, firstly, experimental drying behaviour of viscose bobbins was determined on an experimental dryer setup which was designed and manufactured based on hot-air bobbin dryers used in textile industry. Afterwards, drying models considered were fitted to the experimentally obtained moisture ratios. Drying parameters were drying temperature and bobbin diameter. The fit was performed by selecting the values for constants in the models in such a way that these values make the sum of the squared differences between the experimental and the model results for moisture ratio minimum. Suitability of fitting was specified as comparing the correlation coefficient, standard error and mean square deviation. The results show that the most appropriate model in describing the drying curves of viscose bobbins is the Page model.

Keywords: Drying, moisture ratio, Page model, viscose

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1168 Algebraic Approach for the Reconstruction of Linear and Convolutional Error Correcting Codes

Authors: Johann Barbier, Guillaume Sicot, Sebastien Houcke

Abstract:

In this paper we present a generic approach for the problem of the blind estimation of the parameters of linear and convolutional error correcting codes. In a non-cooperative context, an adversary has only access to the noised transmission he has intercepted. The intercepter has no knowledge about the parameters used by the legal users. So, before having acess to the information he has first to blindly estimate the parameters of the error correcting code of the communication. The presented approach has the main advantage that the problem of reconstruction of such codes can be expressed in a very simple way. This allows us to evaluate theorical bounds on the complexity of the reconstruction process but also bounds on the estimation rate. We show that some classical reconstruction techniques are optimal and also explain why some of them have theorical complexities greater than these experimentally observed.

Keywords: Blind estimation parameters, error correcting codes, non-cooperative context, reconstruction algorithm

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1167 Margin-Based Feed-Forward Neural Network Classifiers

Authors: Han Xiao, Xiaoyan Zhu

Abstract:

Margin-Based Principle has been proposed for a long time, it has been proved that this principle could reduce the structural risk and improve the performance in both theoretical and practical aspects. Meanwhile, feed-forward neural network is a traditional classifier, which is very hot at present with a deeper architecture. However, the training algorithm of feed-forward neural network is developed and generated from Widrow-Hoff Principle that means to minimize the squared error. In this paper, we propose a new training algorithm for feed-forward neural networks based on Margin-Based Principle, which could effectively promote the accuracy and generalization ability of neural network classifiers with less labelled samples and flexible network. We have conducted experiments on four UCI open datasets and achieved good results as expected. In conclusion, our model could handle more sparse labelled and more high-dimension dataset in a high accuracy while modification from old ANN method to our method is easy and almost free of work.

Keywords: Max-Margin Principle, Feed-Forward Neural Network, Classifier.

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1166 A Hybrid Model of ARIMA and Multiple Polynomial Regression for Uncertainties Modeling of a Serial Production Line

Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid b. Ali, Loh Wei Ping, Mohsen Mohammadzadeh

Abstract:

Uncertainties of a serial production line affect on the production throughput. The uncertainties cannot be prevented in a real production line. However the uncertain conditions can be controlled by a robust prediction model. Thus, a hybrid model including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiple polynomial regression, is proposed to model the nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput. The uncertainties under consideration of this study are demand, breaktime, scrap, and lead-time. The nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput are examined in the form of quadratic and cubic regression models, where the adjusted R-squared for quadratic and cubic regressions was 98.3% and 98.2%. We optimized the multiple quadratic regression (MQR) by considering the time series trend of the uncertainties using ARIMA model. Finally the hybrid model of ARIMA and MQR is formulated by better adjusted R-squared, which is 98.9%.

Keywords: ARIMA, multiple polynomial regression, production throughput, uncertainties

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1165 Correction of Frequent English Writing Errors by Using Coded Indirect Corrective Feedback and Error Treatment: The Case of Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II

Authors: Chaiwat Tantarangsee

Abstract:

The purposes of this study are 1) to study the frequent English writing errors of students registering the course: Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and 2) to find out the results of writing error correction by using coded indirect corrective feedback and writing error treatments. Samples include 28 2nd year English Major students, Faculty of Education, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Tool for experimental study includes the lesson plan of the course; Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and tool for data collection includes 4 writing tests of short texts. The research findings disclose that frequent English writing errors found in this course comprise 7 types of grammatical errors, namely Fragment sentence, Subject-verb agreement, Wrong form of verb tense, Singular or plural noun endings, Run-ons sentence, Wrong form of verb pattern and Lack of parallel structure. Moreover, it is found that the results of writing error correction by using coded indirect corrective feedback and error treatment reveal the overall reduction of the frequent English writing errors and the increase of students’ achievement in the writing of short texts with the significance at .05.

Keywords: Coded indirect corrective feedback, error correction, and error treatment.

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1164 Application of Machine Learning Methods to Online Test Error Detection in Semiconductor Test

Authors: Matthias Kirmse, Uwe Petersohn, Elief Paffrath

Abstract:

As in today's semiconductor industries test costs can make up to 50 percent of the total production costs, an efficient test error detection becomes more and more important. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to test error detection that should provide a faster recognition of test system faults as well as an improved test error recall. The key idea is to learn a classifier ensemble, detecting typical test error patterns in wafer test results immediately after finishing these tests. Since test error detection has not yet been discussed in the machine learning community, we define central problem-relevant terms and provide an analysis of important domain properties. Finally, we present comparative studies reflecting the failure detection performance of three individual classifiers and three ensemble methods based upon them. As base classifiers we chose a decision tree learner, a support vector machine and a Bayesian network, while the compared ensemble methods were simple and weighted majority vote as well as stacking. For the evaluation, we used cross validation and a specially designed practical simulation. By implementing our approach in a semiconductor test department for the observation of two products, we proofed its practical applicability.

Keywords: Ensemble methods, fault detection, machine learning, semiconductor test.

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1163 Error Propagation in the RK5GL3 Method

Authors: J.S.C. Prentice

Abstract:

The RK5GL3 method is a numerical method for solving initial value problems in ordinary differential equations, and is based on a combination of a fifth-order Runge-Kutta method and 3-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature. In this paper we describe the propagation of local errors in this method, and show that the global order of RK5GL3 is expected to be six, one better than the underlying Runge- Kutta method.

Keywords: RK5GL3, RKrGLm, Runge-Kutta, Gauss-Legendre, initial value problem, order, local error, global error.

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1162 Shape Error Concealment for Shape Independent Transform Coding

Authors: Sandra Ondrušová, Jaroslav Polec

Abstract:

Arbitrarily shaped video objects are an important concept in modern video coding methods. The techniques presently used are not based on image elements but rather video objects having an arbitrary shape. In this paper, spatial shape error concealment techniques to be used for object-based image in error-prone environments are proposed. We consider a geometric shape representation consisting of the object boundary, which can be extracted from the α-plane. Three different approaches are used to replace a missing boundary segment: Bézier interpolation, Bézier approximation and NURBS approximation. Experimental results on object shape with different concealment difficulty demonstrate the performance of the proposed methods. Comparisons with proposed methods are also presented.

Keywords: error concealment, shape coding, object-based image, NURBS, Bézier curves.

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1161 Error Factors in Vertical Positioning System

Authors: Hyun-Gwang Cho, Wan-Seok Yang, Su-Jin Kim, Jeong-Seok Oh, Chun-Hong Park

Abstract:

Machine tools are improved capacity remarkably during the 20th century. Improving the precision of machine tools are related with precision of products and accurate processing is always associated with the subject of interest. There are a lot of the elements that determine the precision of the machine, as guides, motors, structure, control, etc. In this paper we focused on the phenomenon that vertical movement system has worse precision than horizontal movement system even they were made up with same components. The vertical movement system needs to be studied differently from the horizontal movement system to develop its precision. The vertical movement system has load on its transfer direction and it makes the movement system weak in precision than the horizontal one. Some machines have mechanical counter balance, hydraulic or pneumatic counter balance to compensate the weight of the machine head. And there is several type of compensating the weight. It can push the machine head and also can use chain or wire lope to transfer the compensating force from counter balance to machine head. According to the type of compensating, there could be error from friction, pressure error of hydraulic or pressure control error. Also according to what to use for transferring the compensating force, transfer error of compensating force could be occur.

Keywords: Chain chordal action, counter balance, setup error, vertical positioning system.

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1160 A Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model for Multi-Variate Forecasting Analysis with Fuzzy C-Means Clustering

Authors: Emrah Bulut, Okan Duru, Shigeru Yoshida

Abstract:

In this study, a fuzzy integrated logical forecasting method (FILF) is extended for multi-variate systems by using a vector autoregressive model. Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) method was recently introduced by Song and Chissom [1]-[2] after that Chen improved the FTSF method. Rather than the existing literature, the proposed model is not only compared with the previous FTS models, but also with the conventional time series methods such as the classical vector autoregressive model. The cluster optimization is based on the C-means clustering method. An empirical study is performed for the prediction of the chartering rates of a group of dry bulk cargo ships. The root mean squared error (RMSE) metric is used for the comparing of results of methods and the proposed method has superiority than both traditional FTS methods and also the classical time series methods.

Keywords: C-means clustering, Fuzzy time series, Multi-variate design

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1159 PI Controller for Automatic Generation Control Based on Performance Indices

Authors: Kalyan Chatterjee

Abstract:

The optimal design of PI controller for Automatic Generation Control in two area is presented in this paper. The concept of Dual mode control is applied in the PI controller, such that the proportional mode is made active when the rate of change of the error is sufficiently larger than a specified limit otherwise switched to the integral mode. A digital simulation is used in conjunction with the Hooke-Jeeve’s optimization technique to determine the optimum parameters (individual gain of proportional and integral controller) of the PI controller. Integrated Square of the Error (ISE), Integrated Time multiplied by Absolute Error(ITAE) , and Integrated Absolute Error(IAE) performance indices are considered to measure the appropriateness of the designed controller.  The proposed controller are tested for a two area single nonreheat thermal system considering the practical aspect of the problem such as Deadband and Generation Rate Constraint(GRC). Simulation results show that  dual mode with optimized values of the gains improved the control performance than the commonly used Variable Structure .

Keywords: Load Frequency Control, Area Control Error(ACE), Dual Mode PI Controller, Performance Index

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1158 Two States Mapping Based Neural Network Model for Decreasing of Prediction Residual Error

Authors: Insung Jung, lockjo Koo, Gi-Nam Wang

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to design a model of human vital sign prediction for decreasing prediction error by using two states mapping based time series neural network BP (back-propagation) model. Normally, lot of industries has been applying the neural network model by training them in a supervised manner with the error back-propagation algorithm for time series prediction systems. However, it still has a residual error between real value and prediction output. Therefore, we designed two states of neural network model for compensation of residual error which is possible to use in the prevention of sudden death and metabolic syndrome disease such as hypertension disease and obesity. We found that most of simulations cases were satisfied by the two states mapping based time series prediction model compared to normal BP. In particular, small sample size of times series were more accurate than the standard MLP model. We expect that this algorithm can be available to sudden death prevention and monitoring AGENT system in a ubiquitous homecare environment.

Keywords: Neural network, U-healthcare, prediction, timeseries, computer aided prediction.

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1157 Novelist Calls Out Poemist: A Psycholinguistic and Contrastive Analysis of the Errors in Turkish EFL Learners- Interlanguage

Authors: Mehmet Ozcan

Abstract:

This study is designed to investigate errors emerged in written texts produced by 30 Turkish EFL learners with an explanatory, and thus, qualitative perspective. Erroneous language elements were identified by the researcher first and then their grammaticality and intelligibility were checked by five native speakers of English. The analysis of the data showed that it is difficult to claim that an error stems from only one single factor since different features of an error are triggered by different factors. Our findings revealed two different types of errors: those which stem from the interference of L1 with L2 and those which are developmental ones. The former type contains more global errors whereas the errors in latter type are more intelligible.

Keywords: Contrastive analysis, Error analysis, Language acquisition, Language transfer, Turkish

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1156 Stepsize Control of the Finite Difference Method for Solving Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: Davod Khojasteh Salkuyeh

Abstract:

An important task in solving second order linear ordinary differential equations by the finite difference is to choose a suitable stepsize h. In this paper, by using the stochastic arithmetic, the CESTAC method and the CADNA library we present a procedure to estimate the optimal stepsize hopt, the stepsize which minimizes the global error consisting of truncation and round-off error.

Keywords: Ordinary differential equations, optimal stepsize, error, stochastic arithmetic, CESTAC, CADNA.

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