Search results for: Markov Chains

Authors: Chun Wen, Tingzhu Huang

Abstract:

We present a new numerical method for the computation of the steady-state solution of Markov chains. Theoretical analyses show that the proposed method, with a contraction factor α, converges to the one-dimensional null space of singular linear systems of the form Ax = 0. Numerical experiments are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, with applications to a class of interesting models in the domain of tandem queueing networks.

Keywords: Markov chains, tandem queueing networks, convergence, effectiveness.

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Authors: Jeng-Shin Sheu, Jenn-Kaie Lain, Tai-Kuo Woo, Jyh-Horng Wen

Abstract:

The least mean square (LMS) algorithmis one of the most well-known algorithms for mobile communication systems due to its implementation simplicity. However, the main limitation is its relatively slow convergence rate. In this paper, a booster using the concept of Markov chains is proposed to speed up the convergence rate of LMS algorithms. The nature of Markov chains makes it possible to exploit the past information in the updating process. Moreover, since the transition matrix has a smaller variance than that of the weight itself by the central limit theorem, the weight transition matrix converges faster than the weight itself. Accordingly, the proposed Markov-chain based booster thus has the ability to track variations in signal characteristics, and meanwhile, it can accelerate the rate of convergence for LMS algorithms. Simulation results show that the LMS algorithm can effectively increase the convergence rate and meantime further approach the Wiener solution, if the Markov-chain based booster is applied. The mean square error is also remarkably reduced, while the convergence rate is improved.

Keywords: LMS, Markov chain, convergence rate, accelerator.

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Authors: Miloš Šeda, Pavel Ošmera, Jindřich Petrucha

Abstract:

In the queueing theory, it is assumed that customer arrivals correspond to a Poisson process and service time has the exponential distribution. Using these assumptions, the behaviour of the queueing system can be described by means of Markov chains and it is possible to derive the characteristics of the system. In the paper, these theoretical approaches are presented on several types of systems and it is also shown how to compute the characteristics in a situation when these assumptions are not satisfied

Keywords: Queueing theory, Poisson process, Markov chains.

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Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

Abstract:

The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: Concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix.

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Authors: Jaroslav Polec, Viliam Hirner, Michal Martinovič, Kvetoslava Kotuliaková

Abstract:

In this paper we present a novel error model for packet loss and subsequent error description. The proposed model simulates the error performance of wireless communication link. The model is designed as two independent Markov chains, where the first one is used for packet generation and the second one generates correctly and incorrectly transmitted bits for received packets from the first chain. The statistical analyses of real communication on the wireless link are used for determination of model-s parameters. Using the obtained parameters and the implementation of the generator, we collected generated traffic. The obtained results generated by proposed model are compared with the real data collection.

Keywords: Wireless channel, error model, Markov chain, Elliot model, Gilbert model, generator, IEEE 802.11.

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Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi

Abstract:

Most of the real queuing systems include special properties and constraints, which can not be analyzed directly by using the results of solved classical queuing models. Lack of Markov chains features, unexponential patterns and service constraints, are the mentioned conditions. This paper represents an applied general algorithm for analysis and optimizing the queuing systems. The algorithm stages are described through a real case study. It is consisted of an almost completed non-Markov system with limited number of customers and capacities as well as lots of common exception of real queuing networks. Simulation is used for optimizing this system. So introduced stages over the following article include primary modeling, determining queuing system kinds, index defining, statistical analysis and goodness of fit test, validation of model and optimizing methods of system with simulation.

Keywords: Estimation, queuing system, simulation model, probability distribution, non-Markov chain.

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Authors: Chao Wang, Ting-Zhu Huang, Chen Jia

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a simplified higher-order Markov chain model for multiple categorical data sequences also called as simplified higher-order multivariate Markov chain model.

Keywords: Higher-order multivariate Markov chain model, Categorical data sequences, Multivariate Markov chain.

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Zina Benouaret, Djamil A¨ıssani

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the performance of the strong stability method of the univariate classical risk model. We interest to the stability bounds established using two approaches. The first based on the strong stability method developed for a general Markov chains. The second approach based on the regenerative processes theory . By adopting an algorithmic procedure, we study the performance of the stability method in the case of exponential distribution claim amounts. After presenting numerically and graphically the stability bounds, an interpretation and comparison of the results have been done.

Keywords: Markov Chain, regenerative processes, risk models, ruin probability, strong stability.

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Authors: Anastasia Rita Widiarti, Phalita Nari Wastu

Abstract:

Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a stochastic method which has been used in various signal processing and character recognition. This study proposes to use HMM to recognize Javanese characters from a number of different handwritings, whereby HMM is used to optimize the number of state and feature extraction. An 85.7 % accuracy is obtained as the best result in 16-stated vertical model using pure HMM. This initial result is satisfactory for prompting further research.

Keywords: Character recognition, off-line handwritingrecognition, Hidden Markov Model.

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Authors: Ehsan Amid, Sina Rezaei Aghdam

Abstract:

In this paper, a novel method for recognition of musical instruments in a polyphonic music is presented by using an embedded hidden Markov model (EHMM). EHMM is a doubly embedded HMM structure where each state of the external HMM is an independent HMM. The classification is accomplished for two different internal HMM structures where GMMs are used as likelihood estimators for the internal HMMs. The results are compared to those achieved by an artificial neural network with two hidden layers. Appropriate classification accuracies were achieved both for solo instrument performance and instrument combinations which demonstrates that the new approach outperforms the similar classification methods by means of the dynamic of the signal.

Keywords: hidden Markov model (HMM), embedded hidden Markov models (EHMM), MFCC, musical instrument.

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Authors: Boukelkoul Lahcen

Abstract:

The cumulative costs for O&M may represent as much as 65%-90% of the turbine's investment cost. Nowadays the cost effectiveness concept becomes a decision-making and technology evaluation metric. The cost of energy metric accounts for the effect replacement cost and unscheduled maintenance cost parameters. One key of the proposed approach is the idea of maintaining the WTs which can be captured via use of a finite state Markov chain. Such a model can be embedded within a probabilistic operation and maintenance simulation reflecting the action to be done. In this paper, an approach of estimating the cost of O&M is presented. The finite state Markov model is used for decision problems with number of determined periods (life cycle) to predict the cost according to various options of maintenance.

Keywords: Cost, finite state, Markov model, operation, maintenance.

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Authors: Nam Lethanh, Bryan T. Adey

Abstract:

In this paper, the potential use of an exponential hidden Markov model to model a hidden pavement deterioration process, i.e. one that is not directly measurable, is investigated. It is assumed that the evolution of the physical condition, which is the hidden process, and the evolution of the values of pavement distress indicators, can be adequately described using discrete condition states and modeled as a Markov processes. It is also assumed that condition data can be collected by visual inspections over time and represented continuously using an exponential distribution. The advantage of using such a model in decision making process is illustrated through an empirical study using real world data.

Keywords: Deterioration modeling, Exponential distribution, Hidden Markov model, Pavement management

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Authors: Rajneesh Sharma, M. Gopal

Abstract:

Markov games are a generalization of Markov decision process to a multi-agent setting. Two-player zero-sum Markov game framework offers an effective platform for designing robust controllers. This paper presents two novel controller design algorithms that use ideas from game-theory literature to produce reliable controllers that are able to maintain performance in presence of noise and parameter variations. A more widely used approach for controller design is the H∞ optimal control, which suffers from high computational demand and at times, may be infeasible. Our approach generates an optimal control policy for the agent (controller) via a simple Linear Program enabling the controller to learn about the unknown environment. The controller is facing an unknown environment, and in our formulation this environment corresponds to the behavior rules of the noise modeled as the opponent. Proposed controller architectures attempt to improve controller reliability by a gradual mixing of algorithmic approaches drawn from the game theory literature and the Minimax-Q Markov game solution approach, in a reinforcement-learning framework. We test the proposed algorithms on a simulated Inverted Pendulum Swing-up task and compare its performance against standard Q learning.

Keywords: Reinforcement learning, Markov Decision Process, Matrix Games, Markov Games, Smooth Fictitious play, Controller, Inverted Pendulum.

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Authors: Terrence Chen, Thomas S. Huang

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the region based hidden Markov random field model (RBHMRF), which encodes the characteristics of different brain regions into a probabilistic framework for brain MR image segmentation. The recently proposed TV+L1 model is used for region extraction. By utilizing different spatial characteristics in different brain regions, the RMHMRF model performs beyond the current state-of-the-art method, the hidden Markov random field model (HMRF), which uses identical spatial information throughout the whole brain. Experiments on both real and synthetic 3D MR images show that the segmentation result of the proposed method has higher accuracy compared to existing algorithms.

Keywords: Finite Gaussian mixture model, Hidden Markov random field model, image segmentation, MRI.

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Authors: Sherine Beshara, Khaled S. El-Kilany, Noha M. Galal

Abstract:

Supply chain management has become more challenging with the emerging trend of globalization and sustainability. Lately, research related to perishable products supply chains, in particular agricultural food products, has emerged. This is attributed to the additional complexity of managing this type of supply chains with the recently increased concern of public health, food quality, food safety, demand and price variability, and the limited lifetime of these products. Inventory management for agrifood supply chains is of vital importance due to the product perishability and customers- strive for quality. This paper concentrates on developing a simulation model of a real life case study of a two echelon production-distribution system for agri-food products. The objective is to improve a set of performance measures by developing a simulation model that helps in evaluating and analysing the performance of these supply chains. Simulation results showed that it can help in improving overall system performance.

Keywords: Agri-food supply chains, inventory model, modelling and Simulation, supply chain.

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Authors: Zöhre Kara Kayikci, Günther Palm

Abstract:

A word recognition architecture based on a network of neural associative memories and hidden Markov models has been developed. The input stream, composed of subword-units like wordinternal triphones consisting of diphones and triphones, is provided to the network of neural associative memories by hidden Markov models. The word recognition network derives words from this input stream. The architecture has the ability to handle ambiguities on subword-unit level and is also able to add new words to the vocabulary during performance. The architecture is implemented to perform the word recognition task in a language processing system for understanding simple command sentences like “bot show apple".

Keywords: Hebbian learning, hidden Markov models, neuralassociative memories, word recognition.

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Authors: Yi Yu, Lin Ma, Yong Sun, Yuantong Gu

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel method for remaining useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF) network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance decision and resource planning.

Keywords: Elliptical Basis Function Network, Markov Chain, Missing Covariates, Remaining Useful Life

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Authors: N. Sopipan, A. Intarasit, K. Chuarkham

Abstract:

 In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Keywords: Volatility, Markov Regime Switching, Forecasting.

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Authors: Somayeh Farzin, Hossein Teimoori Nezhad

Abstract:

Procurement is an important component in the field of operating resource management and e-procurement is the golden key to optimizing the supply chains system. Global firms are optimistic on the level of savings that can be achieved through full implementation of e-procurement strategies. E-procurement is an Internet-based business process for obtaining materials and services and managing their inflow into the organization. In this paper, the subjects of supply chains and e-procurement and its benefits to organizations have been studied. Also, e-procurement in construction and its drivers and barriers have been discussed and a framework of supplier selection in an e-procurement environment has been demonstrated. This paper also has addressed critical success factors in adopting e-procurement in supply chains.

Keywords: E-Procurement, Supply Chain, Benefits, Construction, Drivers, Barriers, Supplier Selection, CFSs.

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Authors: Pavan K. Rallabandi, Kailash C. Patidar

Abstract:

In this paper, we present an optimization technique or a learning algorithm using the hybrid architecture by combining the most popular sequence recognition models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Hidden Markov models (HMMs). In order to improve the sequence/pattern recognition/classification performance by applying a hybrid/neural symbolic approach, a gradient descent learning algorithm is developed using the Real Time Recurrent Learning of Recurrent Neural Network for processing the knowledge represented in trained Hidden Markov Models. The developed hybrid algorithm is implemented on automata theory as a sample test beds and the performance of the designed algorithm is demonstrated and evaluated on learning the deterministic finite state automata.

Keywords: Hybrid systems, Hidden Markov Models, Recurrent neural networks, Deterministic finite state automata.

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Authors: Kaustav Kundu, Alberto Portioli Staudacher

Abstract:

Construction industry plays a vital role in the economy of the world. However, due to high uncertainty and variability in the industry, its performance is not as efficient in terms of quality, lead times, productivity and costs as of other industries. Moreover, there are continuous conflicts among the different actors in the construction supply chains in terms of profit sharing. Previous studies suggested partnership as an important approach to promote cooperation among the different actors in the construction supply chains and thereby it improves the overall performance. Construction practitioners tried to focus on partnership which can enhance the performance of construction supply chains but they are not fully aware of different approaches and techniques for improving partnership. In this research, a systematic review on partnership in relation to construction supply chains is carried out to understand different elements influencing the partnership. The research development of this domain is analyzed by reviewing selected articles published from 1996 to 2015. Based on the papers, three major elements influencing partnership in construction supply chains are identified: ‘Lean approach’, ‘Relationship building’ and ‘E-commerce applications’. This study analyses the contributions in the areas within each element and provides suggestions for future developments of partnership in construction supply chains.

Keywords: Partnership, construction, lean, SCM, supply chain management.

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Authors: Y. K. Chen, K. C. Chiou, C. Y. Chen

Abstract:

The cumulative conformance count (CCC) charts are widespread in process monitoring of high-yield manufacturing. Recently, it is found the use of variable sampling interval (VSI) scheme could further enhance the efficiency of the standard CCC charts. The average time to signal (ATS) a shift in defect rate has become traditional measure of efficiency of a chart with the VSI scheme. Determining the ATS is frequently a difficult and tedious task. A simple method based on a finite Markov Chain approach for modeling the ATS is developed. In addition, numerical results are given.

Keywords: Cumulative conformance count, variable sampling interval, Markov Chain, average time to signal, control chart.

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Authors: Armin Ghayoori, Faramarz Hendessi, Asrar Sheikh

Abstract:

In developing a text-to-speech system, it is well known that the accuracy of information extracted from a text is crucial to produce high quality synthesized speech. In this paper, a new scheme for converting text into its equivalent phonetic spelling is introduced and developed. This method is applicable to many applications in text to speech converting systems and has many advantages over other methods. The proposed method can also complement the other methods with a purpose of improving their performance. The proposed method is a probabilistic model and is based on Smooth Ergodic Hidden Markov Model. This model can be considered as an extension to HMM. The proposed method is applied to Persian language and its accuracy in converting text to speech phonetics is evaluated using simulations.

Keywords: Hidden Markov Models, text, synthesis.

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Authors: Raveen R. Goundar, Ken-ichi Shiota, Masahiko Toyonaga

Abstract:

The major building block of most elliptic curve cryptosystems are computation of multi-scalar multiplication. This paper proposes a novel algorithm for simultaneous multi-scalar multiplication, that is by employing addition chains. The previously known methods utilizes double-and-add algorithm with binary representations. In order to accomplish our purpose, an efficient empirical method for finding addition chains for multi-exponents has been proposed.

Keywords: elliptic curve cryptosystems, multi-scalar multiplication, addition chains, Fibonacci sequence.

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control.

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Authors: Jevgenijs Carkovs

Abstract:

The paper is devoted to stochastic analysis of finite dimensional difference equation with dependent on ergodic Markov chain increments, which are proportional to small parameter ". A point-form solution of this difference equation may be represented as vertexes of a time-dependent continuous broken line given on the segment [0,1] with "-dependent scaling of intervals between vertexes. Tending " to zero one may apply stochastic averaging and diffusion approximation procedures and construct continuous approximation of the initial stochastic iterations as an ordinary or stochastic Ito differential equation. The paper proves that for sufficiently small " these equations may be successfully applied not only to approximate finite number of iterations but also for asymptotic analysis of iterations, when number of iterations tends to infinity.

Keywords: Markov dynamical system, diffusion approximation, equilibrium stochastic stability.

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Authors: Jong Woo Kim, Go Bong Choi, Sang Hwan Son, Dae Shik Kim, Jung Chul Suh, Jong Min Lee

Abstract:

The Markov decision process (MDP) based methodology is implemented in order to establish the optimal schedule which minimizes the cost. Formulation of MDP problem is presented using the information about the current state of pipe, improvement cost, failure cost and pipe deterioration model. The objective function and detailed algorithm of dynamic programming (DP) are modified due to the difficulty of implementing the conventional DP approaches. The optimal schedule derived from suggested model is compared to several policies via Monte Carlo simulation. Validity of the solution and improvement in computational time are proved.

Keywords: Markov decision processes, Dynamic Programming, Monte Carlo simulation, Periodic replacement, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: V.Manikandan, N.Devarajan

Abstract:

The main objective of this work is to provide a fault detection and isolation based on Markov parameters for residual generation and a neural network for fault classification. The diagnostic approach is accomplished in two steps: In step 1, the system is identified using a series of input / output variables through an identification algorithm. In step 2, the fault is diagnosed comparing the Markov parameters of faulty and non faulty systems. The Artificial Neural Network is trained using predetermined faulty conditions serves to classify the unknown fault. In step 1, the identification is done by first formulating a Hankel matrix out of Input/ output variables and then decomposing the matrix via singular value decomposition technique. For identifying the system online sliding window approach is adopted wherein an open slit slides over a subset of 'n' input/output variables. The faults are introduced at arbitrary instances and the identification is carried out in online. Fault residues are extracted making a comparison of the first five Markov parameters of faulty and non faulty systems. The proposed diagnostic approach is illustrated on benchmark problems with encouraging results.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Fault Diagnosis, Identification, Markov parameters.

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Authors: Hong Son Hoang, Remy Baraille

Abstract:

This paper addresses the problem of how one can improve the performance of a non-optimal filter. First the theoretical question on dynamical representation for a given time correlated random process is studied. It will be demonstrated that for a wide class of random processes, having a canonical form, there exists a dynamical system equivalent in the sense that its output has the same covariance function. It is shown that the dynamical approach is more effective for simulating and estimating a Markov and non- Markovian random processes, computationally is less demanding, especially with increasing of the dimension of simulated processes. Numerical examples and estimation problems in low dimensional systems are given to illustrate the advantages of the approach. A very useful application of the proposed approach is shown for the problem of state estimation in very high dimensional systems. Here a modified filter for data assimilation in an oceanic numerical model is presented which is proved to be very efficient due to introducing a simple Markovian structure for the output prediction error process and adaptive tuning some parameters of the Markov equation.

Keywords: Statistical simulation, canonical form, dynamical system, Markov and non-Markovian processes, data assimilation.

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Authors: Dali Zhang, Baoqun Yin, Hongsheng Xi

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a single sample path based algorithm with state aggregation to optimize the average rewards of singularly perturbed Markov reward processes (SPMRPs) with a large scale state spaces. It is assumed that such a reward process depend on a set of parameters. Differing from the other kinds of Markov chain, SPMRPs have their own hierarchical structure. Based on this special structure, our algorithm can alleviate the load in the optimization for performance. Moreover, our method can be applied on line because of its evolution with the sample path simulated. Compared with the original algorithm applied on these problems of general MRPs, a new gradient formula for average reward performance metric in SPMRPs is brought in, which will be proved in Appendix, and then based on these gradients, the schedule of the iteration algorithm is presented, which is based on a single sample path, and eventually a special case in which parameters only dominate the disturbance matrices will be analyzed, and a precise comparison with be displayed between our algorithm with the old ones which is aim to solve these problems in general Markov reward processes. When applied in SPMRPs, our method will approach a fast pace in these cases. Furthermore, to illustrate the practical value of SPMRPs, a simple example in multiple programming in computer systems will be listed and simulated. Corresponding to some practical model, physical meanings of SPMRPs in networks of queues will be clarified.

Keywords: Singularly perturbed Markov processes, Gradient of average reward, Differential reward, State aggregation, Perturbed close network.

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