Search results for: Marginal likelihood evidence.

Authors: Mazidah Tajjudin, Norhashim Mohd Arshad, Ramli Adnan

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Fractional-order controller was proven to perform better than the integer-order controller. However, the absence of a pole at origin produced marginal error in fractional-order control system. This study demonstrated the enhancement of the fractionalorder PI over the integer-order PI in a steam temperature control. The fractional-order controller was cascaded with an error compensator comprised of a very small zero and a pole at origin to produce a zero steady-state error for the closed-loop system. Some modification on the error compensator was suggested for different order fractional integrator that can improve the overall phase margin.

Keywords: Fractional-order PI, Ziegler-Nichols tuning, Oustaloup's Recursive Approximation, steam temperature control.

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Authors: Khattab Ibrahim Al Qaisi, Nicholas Bowring

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This paper presents the simulation results of the effects of sampling frequency on the total harmonic distortion (THD) of three-phase inverters using the space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM) and space vector control (SVC) algorithms. The relationship between the variables was studied using curve fitting techniques, and it has been shown that, for 50 Hz inverters, there is an exponential relation between the sampling frequency and THD up to around 8500 Hz, beyond which the performance of the model becomes irregular, and there is an negative exponential relation between the sampling frequency and the marginal improvement to the THD. It has also been found that the performance of SVPWM is better than that of SVC with the same sampling frequency in most frequency range, including the range where the performance of the former is irregular.

Keywords: SVPWM, THD, DC-AC Inverter, Sampling Frequency.

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Authors: Luc Cessieux, French Navy, Adrien Derock, DCNS/IMATH

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Security risk models have been successful in estimating the likelihood of attack for simple security threats. However, modeling complex system and their security risk is even a challenge. Many methods have been proposed to face this problem. Often difficult to manipulate, and not enough all-embracing they are not as famous as they should with administrators and deciders. We propose in this paper a new tool to model big systems on purpose. The software, takes into account attack threats and security strength.

Keywords: Security, risk management, threat, modelization.

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Authors: Erna T. Herdiani, Maman A. Djauhari

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In recent years, the use of vector variance as a measure of multivariate variability has received much attention in wide range of statistics. This paper deals with a more economic measure of multivariate variability, defined as vector variance minus all duplication elements. For high dimensional data, this will increase the computational efficiency almost 50 % compared to the original vector variance. Its sampling distribution will be investigated to make its applications possible.

Keywords: Asymptotic distribution, covariance matrix, likelihood ratio test, vector variance.

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Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Hamid Kalhornia

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One of the most important roles of financial reporting is improving the firms’ investment decisions; however, there is not much supporting evidence for this claim in emerging markets like Iran. In this study, the effect of financial reporting transparency in investment efficiency of Iranian firms has been investigated. In order to do this, 336 listed companies on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) has been selected for time period 2012 to 2015 as research sample. For testing our main hypothesis, we classified sample firms into two groups based on their deviation from expected investment: under-investment and over-investment cases. The results indicate that there is positive significant relationship between financial transparency and investment efficiency. In the other words, transparency can mitigate both underinvestment and overinvestment situations.

Keywords: Corporate governance, disclosure, investment decisions, investment efficiency, transparency.

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Authors: Yohei Saika

Abstract:

On the basis of Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal estimate, we carry out phase unwrapping using multiple interferograms via generalized mean-field theory. Numerical calculations for a typical wave-front in remote sensing using the synthetic aperture radar interferometry, phase diagram in hyper-parameter space clarifies that the present method succeeds in phase unwrapping perfectly under the constraint of surface- consistency condition, if the interferograms are not corrupted by any noises. Also, we find that prior is useful for extending a phase in which phase unwrapping under the constraint of the surface-consistency condition. These results are quantitatively confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, generalized mean-field theory, phase unwrapping, statistical mechanics.

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Authors: Cătălin Nicolae Albu, Nadia Albu, Maria Mădălina Gîrbină

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There is limited evidence from various countries about the possible impact of various criteria to be used to determine the scope of the IFRS for SMEs issued in 2009 and, research is needed in this area. We provide evidence from Romania, an emerging economy member of the European Union. The aim of this paper is to analyze in a local setting if size is a relevant factor for deciding between local and global standards for SMEs. Our results indicate that size is a moderate indicator of the existence of possible users interested in financial statements and that there is a difference between the scopes of the standard determined on various criteria.. Also, we suggest that the international exposure is quite reduced in the case of SMEs, but is sufficient to suggest that at least some SMEs would benefit from international comparability of financial statements

Keywords: SMEs, IFRS for SMEs, accounting regulation, entity's size.

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Authors: Rubaiyat Jahan, Nasreen Sultana Mitu

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This paper examines the theoretical construct of transformative practices, and reports some evidence of transformative practices from a couple of Bangladeshi English teachers. The idea of transformative practices calls for teachers’ capabilities to invest their intellectual labor in teaching with an assumption that along with the academic advancement of the learners, it aims for the personal transformation for both the learners as well for themselves. Following an ethnographic research approach, data for this study were collected through in-depth interviews, informal talks and classroom observations for a period of one year. In relevance to the English classroom of the Bangladeshi context, from this study, references of transformative practices have been underlined from the participant teachers’ views on English language teaching as well as from their actual practices. According to data of this research, some evidence of transformative practices in the form of critical language awareness and personal theories of practices emerge from the participants’ articulation of the beliefs on teaching; and from the participant teachers’ classroom practices evidence of self-directed acts of teaching, self-directed acts of professional development, and liberatory autonomy have been highlighted as the reflections of transformative practices. The implication of this paper refers to the significance of practicing teachers’ articulation of beliefs and views on teaching along with their orientation to critical pedagogical relations.

Keywords: Critical language awareness, personal theories of practices, teacher autonomy, transformative practices.

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Authors: V. Komarova

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The main purpose of this research is the calculation of implicit prices of the environmental level of air quality in the city of Moscow on the basis of housing property prices. The database used contains records of approximately 20 thousand apartments and has been provided by a leading real estate agency operating in Russia. The explanatory variables include physical characteristics of the houses, environmental (industry emissions), neighbourhood sociodemographic and geographic data: GPS coordinates of each house. The hedonic regression results for ecological variables show «negative» prices while increasing the level of air contamination from such substances as carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and particles (CO, NO2, SO2, TSP). The marginal willingness to pay for higher environmental quality is presented for linear and log-log models.

Keywords: Air pollution, environment, hedonic prices, real estate, willingness to pay.

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Authors: Alessandro Barbiero

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In this paper some procedures for building confidence intervals for the reliability in stress-strength models are discussed and empirically compared. The particular case of a bivariate normal setup is considered. The confidence intervals suggested are obtained employing approximations or asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators. The coverage and the precision of these intervals are empirically checked through a simulation study. An application to real paired data is also provided.

Keywords: Approximate estimators, asymptotic theory, confidence interval, Monte Carlo simulations, stress-strength, variance estimation.

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Authors: A. M. Tarola, R. Preti, A. M. Girelli, P. Campana

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Goat dairy products are gaining popularity worldwide. In developing countries, but also in many marginal regions of the Mediterranean area, goats represent a great part of the economy and ensure food security. In fact, these small ruminants are able to convert efficiently poor weedy plants and small trees into traditional products of high nutritional quality, showing great resilience to different climatic and environmental conditions. In developed countries, goat milk is appreciated for the presence of health-promoting compounds, bioactive compounds such as conjugated linoleic acids, oligosaccharides, sphingolipids and polyammines. This paper focuses on the recent advances in literature on the nutritional properties of goat milk and on innovative techniques to improve its quality as to become a promising functional food. The environmental sustainability of different methodologies of production has also been examined. Goat milk is valued today as a food of high nutritional value and functional properties as well as small environmental footprint. It is widely consumed in many countries due to high nutritional value, lower allergenic potential, and better digestibility when compared to bovine milk, that makes this product suitable for infants, elderly or sensitive patients. The main differences in chemical composition between a cow and goat milk rely on fat globules that in goat milk are smaller and in fatty acids that present a smaller chain length, while protein, fat, and lactose concentration are comparable. Milk nutritional properties have demonstrated to be strongly influenced by animal diet, genotype, and welfare, but also by season and production systems. Furthermore, there is a growing interest in the dairy industry in goat milk for its relatively high concentration of prebiotics and a good amount of probiotics, which have recently gained importance for their therapeutic potential. Therefore, goat milk is studied as a promising matrix to develop innovative functional foods. In addition to the economic and nutritional value, goat milk is considered a sustainable product for its small environmental footprint, as they require relatively little water and land, and less medical treatments, compared to cow, these characteristics make its production naturally vocated to organic farming. Organic goat milk production has becoming more and more interesting both for farmers and consumers as it can answer to several concerns like environment protection, animal welfare and economical sustainment of rural populations living in marginal lands. These evidences make goat milk an ancient food with novel properties and advantages to be valorized and exploited.

Keywords: Goat milk, nutritional quality, bioactive compounds, sustainable production.

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Authors: H. Panahi, S. Asadi

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In this paper, the estimation of the stress-strength parameter R = P(Y < X), when X and Y are independent and both are Lomax distributions with the common scale parameters but different shape parameters is studied. The maximum likelihood estimator of R is derived. Assuming that the common scale parameter is known, the bayes estimator and exact confidence interval of R are discussed. Simulation study to investigate performance of the different proposed methods has been carried out.

Keywords: Stress-Strength model; maximum likelihoodestimator; Bayes estimator; Lomax distribution

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Authors: Masoud Saeedi, Shirin Rahimi Kazerooni, Vahid Parvaresh

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Validity is an overriding consideration in language testing. If a test score is intended for a particular purpose, this must be supported through empirical evidence. This article addresses the validity of a multiple-choice achievement test (MCT). The test is administered at the end of each semester to decide about students' mastery of a course in general English. To provide empirical evidence pertaining to the validity of this test, two criterion measures were used. In so doing, a Cloze test and a C-test which are reported to gauge general English proficiency were utilized. The results of analyses show that there is a statistically significant correlation among participants' scores on the MCT, Cloze, and Ctest. Drawing on the findings of the study, it can be cautiously deduced that these tests measure the same underlying trait. However, allowing for the limitations of using criterion measures to validate tests, we cannot make any absolute claim as to the validity of this MCT test.

Keywords: C-test, cloze test, multiple-choice test, validity argument.

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Authors: José M. Merigó, Montserrat Casanovas

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We study the problem of decision making with Dempster-Shafer belief structure. We analyze the previous work developed by Yager about using the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the Dempster-Shafer decision process. We discuss the possibility of aggregating with an ascending order in the OWA operator for the cases where the smallest value is the best result. We suggest the introduction of the ordered weighted geometric (OWG) operator in the Dempster-Shafer framework. In this case, we also discuss the possibility of aggregating with an ascending order and we find that it is completely necessary as the OWG operator cannot aggregate negative numbers. Finally, we give an illustrative example where we can see the different results obtained by using the OWA, the Ascending OWA (AOWA), the OWG and the Ascending OWG (AOWG) operator.

Keywords: Decision making, aggregation operators, Dempster- Shafer theory of evidence, Uncertainty, OWA operator, OWG operator.

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Authors: Vilém Pařil, Dominika Tóthová

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This paper discusses the value theory in cultural heritage and the value theory in environmental economics. Two economic views of the value theory are compared, within the field of cultural heritage maintenance and within the field of the environment. The main aims are to find common features in these two differently structured theories under the layer of differently defined terms as well as really differing features of these two approaches; to clear the confusion which stems from different terminology as in fact these terms capture the same aspects of reality; and to show possible inspiration these two perspectives can offer one another. Another aim is to present these two value systems in one value framework. First, important moments of the value theory from the economic perspective are presented, leading to the marginal revolution of (not only) the Austrian School. Then the theory of value within cultural heritage and environmental economics are explored. Finally, individual approaches are compared and their potential mutual inspiration searched for.

Keywords: Cultural heritage, environmental economics, existence value, value theory.

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Authors: Ahmad Luthfi

Abstract:

One of the main goals of a computer forensic analyst is to determine the cause and effect of the acquisition of a digital evidence in order to obtain relevant information on the case is being handled. In order to get fast and accurate results, this paper will discuss the approach known as Ontology Framework. This model uses a structured hierarchy of layers that create connectivity between the variant and searching investigation of activity that a computer forensic analysis activities can be carried out automatically. There are two main layers are used, namely Analysis Tools and Operating System. By using the concept of Ontology, the second layer is automatically designed to help investigator to perform the acquisition of digital evidence. The methodology of automation approach of this research is by utilizing Forward Chaining where the system will perform a search against investigative steps and atomically structured in accordance with the rules of the Ontology.

Keywords: Ontology, Framework, Automation, Forensics.

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Authors: K. Hardy, A. Maurushat

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Policy makers are increasingly looking to make evidence-based decisions. Evidence-based decisions have historically used rigorous methodologies of empirical studies by research institutes, as well as less reliable immediate survey/polls often with limited sample sizes. As we move into the era of Big Data analytics, policy makers are looking to different methodologies to deliver reliable empirics in real-time. The question is not why did these people do this for the last 10 years, but why are these people doing this now, and if the this is undesirable, and how can we have an impact to promote change immediately. Big data analytics rely heavily on government data that has been released in to the public domain. The open data movement promises greater productivity and more efficient delivery of services; however, Australian government agencies remain reluctant to release their data to the general public. This paper considers the barriers to releasing government data as open data, and how these barriers might be overcome.

Keywords: Big data, open data, productivity, transparency.

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Authors: César Camisón-Zornoza, Beatriz Forés-Julián, Alba Puig-Denia

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The literature has argued that firms based in industrial districts enjoy advantages for creating internal knowledge and absorbing external knowledge as a consequence of to the knowledge flows and spillovers that exist in the district. However, empirical evidence to show how belonging to an industrial district affects the business processes of creation and absorption of knowledge is scarce and, moreover, empirical research has not taken into account the influence of variations in the flows of knowledge circulating in each cluster. This study aims to extend empirical evidence on the effect that the stock of shared competencies in industrial districts has on the business processes of creation and absorption of knowledge, through data from an initial study on 952 firms and 35 industrial districts in Spain.

Keywords: Absorptive capacity, industrial district, knowledge creation, organisational learning

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Authors: A. Taqaddas

Abstract:

Chemotherapy and radiotherapy are one of the major treatment modalities that play important role in the management of a number of different cancers. This study for the first time evaluates the toxicity of these treatment modalities and its impact on quality of life of cancer patients in Pakistan. The study also for the first time determines what cancer patients of different ages and cancer stages believe would be an effective intervention to manage their psychosocial needs and treatment induced toxicity. The article also provides evidence based approach for the use of variety of interventions to mange cancer treatment induced morbidity and toxicity. In light of the present study and reviewed research data, evidence based recommendations are also made for selection of appropriate interventions to manage Pain, Nausea and Vomiting, Anxiety and Depression, Fatigue and Overall QOL of cancer survivors.

Keywords: Chemotherapy Toxicity, Psycho-Social Interventions, Quality of Life, Radiotherapy Toxicity.

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Authors: B. Skrabic, N. Tomic-Plazibat

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In this paper real money demand function is analyzed within multivariate time-series framework. Cointegration approach is used (Johansen procedure) assuming interdependence between money demand determinants, which are nonstationary variables. This will help us to understand the behavior of money demand in Croatia, revealing the significant influence between endogenous variables in vector autoregrression system (VAR), i.e. vector error correction model (VECM). Exogeneity of the explanatory variables is tested. Long-run money demand function is estimated indicating slow speed of adjustment of removing the disequilibrium. Empirical results provide the evidence that real industrial production and exchange rate explains the most variations of money demand in the long-run, while interest rate is significant only in short-run.

Keywords: Cointegration, Long-run equilibrium, Money demand function, Vector error correction model.

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Authors: Ying-Hsiu Chen, Pao-Peng Hsu, Mou-Yuan Liao, Shu-Min Hsieh

Abstract:

This paper employs a the variable returns to scale DEA model to take account of risky assets and estimate the operating efficiencies for the 21 domestic listed securities firms during the period 2005-2009. Evidence is found that on average the brokerage securities firms- operating efficiencies are better than integrated securities firms. Evidence is also found that the technical inefficiency from inappropriate management constitutes the main source of the operating inefficiency for both types of securities firms. Moreover, the scale economies prevail in brokerage and integrated securities firms, in other words, which exhibit the characteristic of increasing returns to scale.

Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, Risky Assets, PureTechnical Efficiency, Scale Efficiency, Scale Economies.

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Authors: Amir M. Alani, Morteza Aboutalebi, Martin J. King

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Experimental study on the influence of fibre content on crack behaviour and propagation in synthetic-fibre reinforced beams has been reported in this paper. The tensile behaviour of metallic fibre concrete is evaluated in terms of residual flexural tensile strength values determined from the load-crack mouth opening displacement curve or load-deflection curve obtained by applying a centre-point load on a simply supported notched prism. The results achieved demonstrate that an increase in fibre content has an almost negligible effect on compressive and tensile splitting properties, causes a marginal increment in flexural tensile strength and increasesthe Re3 value.

Keywords: Fibre-Reinforced Concrete, Crack, Flexural Test, Ductility, Fibre Content, Experimental Study.

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Authors: Ülkü Erişoğlu, Murat Erişoğlu, Hamza Erol

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In this paper we propose a mixture of two different distributions such as Exponential-Gamma, Exponential-Weibull and Gamma-Weibull to model heterogeneous survival data. Various properties of the proposed mixture of two different distributions are discussed. Maximum likelihood estimations of the parameters are obtained by using the EM algorithm. Illustrative example based on real data are also given.

Keywords: Exponential-Gamma, Exponential-Weibull, Gamma-Weibull, EM Algorithm, Survival Analysis.

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Authors: Enerit Saçdanaku, Idriz Haxhiu

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In this study was monitored the population of the European Pond Turtle, Emys orbicularis (Linnaeus, 1758) in the area of Narta Lagoon, Vlora Bay (Albania), from August to October 2014. A total of 54 individuals of E. orbicularis were studied using different methodologies. Curved Carapace Length (CCL), Plastron Length (PL) and Curved Carapace Width (CCW) were measured for each individual of E. orbicularis and were statistically analyzed. All captured turtles were separated in seven different size – classes based on their carapace length (CCL). Each individual of E. orbicularis was marked by notching the carapace (marginal scutes). Form all individuals captured resulted that 37 were females (68.5%), 14 males (25.9%), 3 juveniles (5.5%), while 18 individuals of E. orbicularis were recaptured for the first and some for the second time.

Keywords: Emys orbicularis, female, juvenile, male, population, size – classes.

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Authors: Edlira Kalemi, Sule Yildirim-Yayilgan

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Online Social Networks (OSNs) are nowadays being used widely and intensively for crime investigation and prevention activities. As they provide a lot of information they are used by the law enforcement and intelligence. An extensive review on existing solutions and models for collecting intelligence from this source of information and making use of it for solving crimes has been presented in this article. The main focus is on smart solutions and models where ontologies have been used as the main approach for representing criminal domain knowledge. A framework for a prototype ontology named SC-Ont will be described. This defines terms of the criminal domain ontology and the relations between them. The terms and the relations are extracted during both this review and the discussions carried out with domain experts. The development of SC-Ont is still ongoing work, where in this paper, we report mainly on the motivation for using smart ontology models and the possible benefits of using them for solving crimes.

Keywords: Criminal digital evidence, social media, ontologies, reasoning.

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Authors: P. Bergl

Abstract:

Numerous divergence measures (spectral distance, cepstral distance, difference of the cepstral coefficients, Kullback-Leibler divergence, distance given by the General Likelihood Ratio, distance defined by the Recursive Bayesian Changepoint Detector and the Mahalanobis measure) are compared in this study. The measures are used for detection of abrupt spectral changes in synthetic AR signals via the sliding window algorithm. Two experiments are performed; the first is focused on detection of single boundary while the second concentrates on detection of a couple of boundaries. Accuracy of detection is judged for each method; the measures are compared according to results of both experiments.

Keywords: Abrupt changes detection, autoregressive model, divergence measure.

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Authors: Husna Hasan, Norfatin Salam, Mohd Bakri Adam

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Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modelled by fitting the monthly maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Two models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that half of the stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Keywords: Extreme temperature, extreme value, return level.

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Authors: N. A. Ibrahim, A. Kudus, I. Daud, M. R. Abu Bakar

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Competing risks survival data that comprises of more than one type of event has been used in many applications, and one of these is in clinical study (e.g. in breast cancer study). The decision tree method can be extended to competing risks survival data by modifying the split function so as to accommodate two or more risks which might be dependent on each other. Recently, researchers have constructed some decision trees for recurrent survival time data using frailty and marginal modelling. We further extended the method for the case of competing risks. In this paper, we developed the decision tree method for competing risks survival time data based on proportional hazards for subdistribution of competing risks. In particular, we grow a tree by using deviance statistic. The application of breast cancer data is presented. Finally, to investigate the performance of the proposed method, simulation studies on identification of true group of observations were executed.

Keywords: Competing risks, Decision tree, Simulation, Subdistribution Proportional Hazard.

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Authors: Hossein Jafari, Xiangfang Li, Lijun Qian, Alexander Aved, Timothy Kroecker

Abstract:

Traditionally in sensor networks and recently in the Internet of Things, numerous heterogeneous sensors are deployed in distributed manner to monitor a phenomenon that often can be model by an underlying stochastic process. The big time-series data collected by the sensors must be analyzed to detect change in the stochastic process as quickly as possible with tolerable false alarm rate. However, sensors may have different accuracy and sensitivity range, and they decay along time. As a result, the big time-series data collected by the sensors will contain uncertainties and sometimes they are conflicting. In this study, we present a framework to take advantage of Evidence Theory (a.k.a. Dempster-Shafer and Dezert-Smarandache Theories) capabilities of representing and managing uncertainty and conflict to fast change detection and effectively deal with complementary hypotheses. Specifically, Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as the similarity metric to calculate the distances between the estimated current distribution with the pre- and post-change distributions. Then mass functions are calculated and related combination rules are applied to combine the mass values among all sensors. Furthermore, we applied the method to estimate the minimum number of sensors needed to combine, so computational efficiency could be improved. Cumulative sum test is then applied on the ratio of pignistic probability to detect and declare the change for decision making purpose. Simulation results using both synthetic data and real data from experimental setup demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented schemes.

Keywords: CUSUM, evidence theory, KL divergence, quickest change detection, time series data.

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Authors: Guangpu Chen

Abstract:

When the failure function is monotone, some monotonic reliability methods are used to gratefully simplify and facilitate the reliability computations. However, these methods often work in a transformed iso-probabilistic space. To this end, a monotonic simulator or transformation is needed in order that the transformed failure function is still monotone. This note proves at first that the output distribution of failure function is invariant under the transformation. And then it presents some conditions under which the transformed function is still monotone in the newly obtained space. These concern the copulas and the dependence concepts. In many engineering applications, the Gaussian copulas are often used to approximate the real word copulas while the available information on the random variables is limited to the set of marginal distributions and the covariances. So this note catches an importance on the conditional monotonicity of the often used transformation from an independent random vector into a dependent random vector with Gaussian copulas.

Keywords: Monotonic, Rosenblatt, Nataf transformation, dependence concepts, completely positive matrices, Gaussiancopulas

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