Search results for: Fast Forecasting
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1069

Search results for: Fast Forecasting

919 Using Combination of Optimized Recurrent Neural Network with Design of Experiments and Regression for Control Chart Forecasting

Authors: R. Behmanesh, I. Rahimi

Abstract:

recurrent neural network (RNN) is an efficient tool for modeling production control process as well as modeling services. In this paper one RNN was combined with regression model and were employed in order to be checked whether the obtained data by the model in comparison with actual data, are valid for variable process control chart. Therefore, one maintenance process in workshop of Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC) was taken for illustration of models. First, the regression was made for predicting the response time of process based upon determined factors, and then the error between actual and predicted response time as output and also the same factors as input were used in RNN. Finally, according to predicted data from combined model, it is scrutinized for test values in statistical process control whether forecasting efficiency is acceptable. Meanwhile, in training process of RNN, design of experiments was set so as to optimize the RNN.

Keywords: RNN, DOE, regression, control chart.

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918 Forecasting Fraudulent Financial Statements using Data Mining

Authors: S. Kotsiantis, E. Koumanakos, D. Tzelepis, V. Tampakas

Abstract:

This paper explores the effectiveness of machine learning techniques in detecting firms that issue fraudulent financial statements (FFS) and deals with the identification of factors associated to FFS. To this end, a number of experiments have been conducted using representative learning algorithms, which were trained using a data set of 164 fraud and non-fraud Greek firms in the recent period 2001-2002. The decision of which particular method to choose is a complicated problem. A good alternative to choosing only one method is to create a hybrid forecasting system incorporating a number of possible solution methods as components (an ensemble of classifiers). For this purpose, we have implemented a hybrid decision support system that combines the representative algorithms using a stacking variant methodology and achieves better performance than any examined simple and ensemble method. To sum up, this study indicates that the investigation of financial information can be used in the identification of FFS and underline the importance of financial ratios.

Keywords: Machine learning, stacking, classifier.

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917 Combined Sewer Overflow forecasting with Feed-forward Back-propagation Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Achela K. Fernando, Xiujuan Zhang, Peter F. Kinley

Abstract:

A feed-forward, back-propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model has been used to forecast the occurrences of wastewater overflows in a combined sewerage reticulation system. This approach was tested to evaluate its applicability as a method alternative to the common practice of developing a complete conceptual, mathematical hydrological-hydraulic model for the sewerage system to enable such forecasts. The ANN approach obviates the need for a-priori understanding and representation of the underlying hydrological hydraulic phenomena in mathematical terms but enables learning the characteristics of a sewer overflow from the historical data. The performance of the standard feed-forward, back-propagation of error algorithm was enhanced by a modified data normalizing technique that enabled the ANN model to extrapolate into the territory that was unseen by the training data. The algorithm and the data normalizing method are presented along with the ANN model output results that indicate a good accuracy in the forecasted sewer overflow rates. However, it was revealed that the accurate forecasting of the overflow rates are heavily dependent on the availability of a real-time flow monitoring at the overflow structure to provide antecedent flow rate data. The ability of the ANN to forecast the overflow rates without the antecedent flow rates (as is the case with traditional conceptual reticulation models) was found to be quite poor.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Back-propagationlearning, Combined sewer overflows, Forecasting.

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916 A New Technique for Solar Activity Forecasting Using Recurrent Elman Networks

Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

Abstract:

In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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915 Hazard Rate Estimation of Temporal Point Process, Case Study: Earthquake Hazard Rate in Nusatenggara Region

Authors: Sunusi N., Kresna A. J., Islamiyati A., Raupong

Abstract:

Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research, we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between HRLPP and HRSD method.

Keywords: Earthquake forecast, Hazard Rate, Likelihood point process, Point process.

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914 Parallel Discrete Fourier Transform for Fast FIR Filtering Based on Overlapped-save Block Structure

Authors: Ying-Wen Bai, Ju-Maw Chen

Abstract:

To successfully provide a fast FIR filter with FTT algorithms, overlapped-save algorithms can be used to lower the computational complexity and achieve the desired real-time processing. As the length of the input block increases in order to improve the efficiency, a larger volume of zero padding will greatly increase the computation length of the FFT. In this paper, we use the overlapped block digital filtering to construct a parallel structure. As long as the down-sampling (or up-sampling) factor is an exact multiple lengths of the impulse response of a FIR filter, we can process the input block by using a parallel structure and thus achieve a low-complex fast FIR filter with overlapped-save algorithms. With a long filter length, the performance and the throughput of the digital filtering system will also be greatly enhanced.

Keywords: FIR Filter, Overlapped-save Algorithm, ParallelStructure

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913 Time Series Forecasting Using Various Deep Learning Models

Authors: Jimeng Shi, Mahek Jain, Giri Narasimhan

Abstract:

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models change as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict into the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based transformer models, which had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the website of University of California, Irvine (UCI), which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean   Absolute Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Keywords: Air quality prediction, deep learning algorithms, time series forecasting, look-back window.

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912 Forecasting Stock Indexes Using Bayesian Additive Regression Tree

Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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911 An Image Enhancement Method Based on Curvelet Transform for CBCT-Images

Authors: Shahriar Farzam, Maryam Rastgarpour

Abstract:

Image denoising plays extremely important role in digital image processing. Enhancement of clinical image research based on Curvelet has been developed rapidly in recent years. In this paper, we present a method for image contrast enhancement for cone beam CT (CBCT) images based on fast discrete curvelet transforms (FDCT) that work through Unequally Spaced Fast Fourier Transform (USFFT). These transforms return a table of Curvelet transform coefficients indexed by a scale parameter, an orientation and a spatial location. Accordingly, the coefficients obtained from FDCT-USFFT can be modified in order to enhance contrast in an image. Our proposed method first uses a two-dimensional mathematical transform, namely the FDCT through unequal-space fast Fourier transform on input image and then applies thresholding on coefficients of Curvelet to enhance the CBCT images. Consequently, applying unequal-space fast Fourier Transform leads to an accurate reconstruction of the image with high resolution. The experimental results indicate the performance of the proposed method is superior to the existing ones in terms of Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR) and Effective Measure of Enhancement (EME).

Keywords: Curvelet transform, image enhancement, CBCT, image denoising.

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910 Optimizing Network Latency with Fast Path Assignment for Incoming Flows

Authors: Qing Lyu, Hang Zhu

Abstract:

Various flows in the network require to go through different types of middlebox. The improper placement of network middlebox and path assignment for flows could greatly increase the network latency and also decrease the performance of network. Minimizing the total end to end latency of all the ows requires to assign path for the incoming flows. In this paper, the flow path assignment problem in regard to the placement of various kinds of middlebox is studied. The flow path assignment problem is formulated to a linear programming problem, which is very time consuming. On the other hand, a naive greedy algorithm is studied. Which is very fast but causes much more latency than the linear programming algorithm. At last, the paper presents a heuristic algorithm named FPA, which takes bottleneck link information and estimated bandwidth occupancy into consideration, and achieves near optimal latency in much less time. Evaluation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Latency, Fast path assignment, Bottleneck link.

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909 Application of Artificial Neural Network to Forecast Actual Cost of a Project to Improve Earned Value Management System

Authors: Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh, Mansoureh Zarezadeh

Abstract:

This paper presents an application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to forecast actual cost of a project based on the earned value management system (EVMS). For this purpose, some projects randomly selected based on the standard data set , and it is produced necessary progress data such as actual cost ,actual percent complete , baseline cost and percent complete for five periods of project. Then an ANN with five inputs and five outputs and one hidden layer is trained to produce forecasted actual costs. The comparison between real and forecasted data show better performance based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) criterion. This approach could be applicable to better forecasting the project cost and result in decreasing the risk of project cost overrun, and therefore it is beneficial for planning preventive actions.

Keywords: Earned Value Management System (EVMS), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Estimate At Completion, Forecasting Methods, Project Performance Measurement.

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908 Disaggregating and Forecasting the Total Energy Consumption of a Building: A Case Study of a High Cooling Demand Facility

Authors: Juliana Barcelos Cordeiro, Khashayar Mahani, Farbod Farzan, Mohsen A. Jafari

Abstract:

Energy disaggregation has been focused by many energy companies since energy efficiency can be achieved when the breakdown of energy consumption is known. Companies have been investing in technologies to come up with software and/or hardware solutions that can provide this type of information to the consumer. On the other hand, not all people can afford to have these technologies. Therefore, in this paper, we present a methodology for breaking down the aggregate consumption and identifying the highdemanding end-uses profiles. These energy profiles will be used to build the forecast model for optimal control purpose. A facility with high cooling load is used as an illustrative case study to demonstrate the results of proposed methodology. We apply a high level energy disaggregation through a pattern recognition approach in order to extract the consumption profile of its rooftop packaged units (RTUs) and present a forecast model for the energy consumption.  

Keywords: Energy consumption forecasting, energy efficiency, load disaggregation, pattern recognition approach.

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907 Fast Fourier Transform-Based Steganalysis of Covert Communications over Streaming Media

Authors: Jinghui Peng, Shanyu Tang, Jia Li

Abstract:

Steganalysis seeks to detect the presence of secret data embedded in cover objects, and there is an imminent demand to detect hidden messages in streaming media. This paper shows how a steganalysis algorithm based on Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) can be used to detect the existence of secret data embedded in streaming media. The proposed algorithm uses machine parameter characteristics and a network sniffer to determine whether the Internet traffic contains streaming channels. The detected streaming data is then transferred from the time domain to the frequency domain through FFT. The distributions of power spectra in the frequency domain between original VoIP streams and stego VoIP streams are compared in turn using t-test, achieving the p-value of 7.5686E-176 which is below the threshold. The results indicate that the proposed FFT-based steganalysis algorithm is effective in detecting the secret data embedded in VoIP streaming media.

Keywords: Steganalysis, security, fast Fourier transform, streaming media.

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906 A Fast Code Acquisition Scheme for O-CDMA Systems

Authors: Youngpo Lee, Jaewoo Lee, Seokho Yoon

Abstract:

This paper proposes a fast code acquisition scheme for optical code division multiple access (O-CDMA) systems. Unlike the conventional scheme, the proposed scheme employs multiple thresholds providing a shorter mean acquisition time (MAT) performance. The simulation results show that the MAT of the proposed scheme is shorter than that of the conventional scheme.

Keywords: Optical CDMA, acquisition, MAT, multiple-shift

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905 Forecasting Electricity Spot Price with Generalized Long Memory Modeling: Wavelet and Neural Network

Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: k-factor, GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, electricity price, forecasting.

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904 Tool for Fast Detection of Java Code Snippets

Authors: Tomáš Bublík, Miroslav Virius

Abstract:

This paper presents general results on the Java source code snippet detection problem. We propose the tool which uses graph and subgraph isomorphism detection. A number of solutions for all of these tasks have been proposed in the literature. However, although that all these solutions are really fast, they compare just the constant static trees. Our solution offers to enter an input sample dynamically with the Scripthon language while preserving an acceptable speed. We used several optimizations to achieve very low number of comparisons during the matching algorithm.

Keywords: AST, Java, tree matching, Scripthon, source code recognition

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903 PM10 Prediction and Forecasting Using CART: A Case Study for Pleven, Bulgaria

Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

Abstract:

Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: Cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting.

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902 A Novel Portable Device for Fast Analysis of Energetic Materials in the Environment

Authors: Jozef Šesták, Zbyněk Večeřa, Vladislav Kahle, Dana Moravcová, Pavel Mikuška, Josef Kellner, František Božek

Abstract:

Construction of portable device for fast analysis of energetic materials is described in this paper. The developed analytical system consists of two main parts: a miniaturized microcolumn liquid chromatograph of unique construction and original chemiluminescence detector. This novel portable device is able to determine selectively most of nitramine- and nitroester-based explosives as well as inorganic nitrates at trace concentrations in water or soil extracts in less than 8 minutes.

Keywords: Portable device, uLC, chemiluminescence, nitramines, nitroesters.

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901 Fast Painting with Different Colors Using Cross Correlation in the Frequency Domain

Authors: Hazem M. El-Bakry

Abstract:

In this paper, a new technique for fast painting with different colors is presented. The idea of painting relies on applying masks with different colors to the background. Fast painting is achieved by applying these masks in the frequency domain instead of spatial (time) domain. New colors can be generated automatically as a result from the cross correlation operation. This idea was applied successfully for faster specific data (face, object, pattern, and code) detection using neural algorithms. Here, instead of performing cross correlation between the input input data (e.g., image, or a stream of sequential data) and the weights of neural networks, the cross correlation is performed between the colored masks and the background. Furthermore, this approach is developed to reduce the computation steps required by the painting operation. The principle of divide and conquer strategy is applied through background decomposition. Each background is divided into small in size subbackgrounds and then each sub-background is processed separately by using a single faster painting algorithm. Moreover, the fastest painting is achieved by using parallel processing techniques to paint the resulting sub-backgrounds using the same number of faster painting algorithms. In contrast to using only faster painting algorithm, the speed up ratio is increased with the size of the background when using faster painting algorithm and background decomposition. Simulation results show that painting in the frequency domain is faster than that in the spatial domain.

Keywords: Fast Painting, Cross Correlation, Frequency Domain, Parallel Processing

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900 Hydrodynamic Characteristics of Dry Beneficiation of Iron Ore and Coal in a Fast Fluidized Bed

Authors: M. Das, R. K. Saha, B. C. Meikap

Abstract:

Iron ore and coal are the two major important raw materials being used in Iron making industries. Usually ore fines containing around 5% Alumina are rejected due to higher proportion of alumina. Therefore, a technology or process which may reduce the alumina content by 2% by beneficiation process will be highly attractive . In addition fine coals with ash content is used nearly 12% is directly injected in blast furnace. Fast fluidization is a technology by using dry beneficiation of coal and iron ore can be done. During the fluidization process the iron ore band coal is fluidized at high velocity in the riser of a fast fluidized bed, the heavier and coarse particles is generally settled at the bottom in a dense zone of the riser while the finer and lighter particle are entrained to the top dilute zone and then via a cyclone is fed back to the bottom of the riser column. Most of the alumina and low ash fine size coals being lighter are expected to move up to the riser and by a natural beneficiation of ores is expected to take place in the riser. Therefore in this study an attempt has been made for dry beneficiation of iron ore and coal in a fluidized bed and its hydrodynamic characterization.

Keywords: beneficiation, fluidization, gas-solid fluidization, riser .

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899 Fast 2.5D Model Reconstruction of Assembled Parts with High Occlusion for Completeness Inspection

Authors: Matteo Munaro, Stefano Michieletto, Edmond So, Daniele Alberton, Emanuele Menegatti

Abstract:

In this work a dual laser triangulation system is presented for fast building of 2.5D textured models of objects within a production line. This scanner is designed to produce data suitable for 3D completeness inspection algorithms. For this purpose two laser projectors have been used in order to considerably reduce the problem of occlusions in the camera movement direction. Results of reconstruction of electronic boards are presented, together with a comparison with a commercial system.

Keywords: 3D quality inspection, 2.5D reconstruction, laser triangulation, occlusions.

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898 Decoupled, Reduced Order Model for Double Output Induction Generator Using Integral Manifolds and Iterative Separation Theory

Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

Abstract:

In this paper presents a technique for developing the computational efficiency in simulating double output induction generators (DOIG) with two rotor circuits where stator transients are to be included. Iterative decomposition is used to separate the flux– Linkage equations into decoupled fast and slow subsystems, after which the model order of the fast subsystems is reduced by neglecting the heavily damped fast transients caused by the second rotor circuit using integral manifolds theory. The two decoupled subsystems along with the equation for the very slowly changing slip constitute a three time-scale model for the machine which resulted in increasing computational speed. Finally, the proposed method of reduced order in this paper is compared with the other conventional methods in linear and nonlinear modes and it is shown that this method is better than the other methods regarding simulation accuracy and speed.

Keywords: DOIG, Iterative separation, Integral manifolds, Reduced order.

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897 A Medical Resource Forecasting Model for Emergency Room Patients with Acute Hepatitis

Authors: R. J. Kuo, W. C. Cheng, W. C. Lien, T. J. Yang

Abstract:

Taiwan is a hyper endemic area for the Hepatitis B virus (HBV). The estimated total number of HBsAg carriers in the general population who are more than 20 years old is more than 3 million. Therefore, a case record review is conducted from January 2003 to June 2007 for all patients with a diagnosis of acute hepatitis who were admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of a well-known teaching hospital. The cost for the use of medical resources is defined as the total medical fee. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) is firstly employed to reduce the number of dimensions. Support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN) are then used to develop the forecasting model. A total of 117 patients meet the inclusion criteria. 61% patients involved in this study are hepatitis B related. The computational result shows that the proposed PCA-SVR model has superior performance than other compared algorithms. In conclusion, the Child-Pugh score and echogram can both be used to predict the cost of medical resources for patients with acute hepatitis in the ED.

Keywords: Acute hepatitis, Medical resource cost, Artificial neural network, Support vector regression.

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896 Collaborative Tracking Control of UAV-UGV

Authors: Jae-Young Choi, Sung-Gaun Kim

Abstract:

This paper suggests a fast and stable Target Tracking system in collaborative control of UAV and UGV. Wi-Fi communication range is limited in collaborative control of UAV and UGV. Thus, to secure a stable communications, UAV and UGV have to be kept within a certain distance from each other. But existing method which uses UAV Vertical Camera to follow the motion of UGV is likely to lose a target with a sudden movement change. Eventually, UGV has disadvantages that it could only move at a low speed and not make any sudden change of direction in order to keep track of the target. Therefore, we suggest utilizing AR Drone UAV front camera to track fast-moving and Omnidirectional Mecanum Wheel UGV.

Keywords: Collaborative control, UAV, UGV, Target Tracking.

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895 On the Construction of m-Sequences via Primitive Polynomials with a Fast Identification Method

Authors: Abhijit Mitra

Abstract:

The paper provides an in-depth tutorial of mathematical construction of maximal length sequences (m-sequences) via primitive polynomials and how to map the same when implemented in shift registers. It is equally important to check whether a polynomial is primitive or not so as to get proper m-sequences. A fast method to identify primitive polynomials over binary fields is proposed where the complexity is considerably less in comparison with the standard procedures for the same purpose.

Keywords: Finite field, irreducible polynomial, primitive polynomial, maximal length sequence, additive shift register, multiplicative shift register.

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894 Forecast Based on an Empirical Probability Function with an Adjusted Error Using Propagation of Error

Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Ángel Camacho

Abstract:

This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors.’ The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Empirical Distribution, Propagation of Error.

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893 Forecasting the Fluctuation of Currency Exchange Rate Using Random Forest

Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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892 The Link between Unemployment and Inflation Using Johansen’s Co-Integration Approach and Vector Error Correction Modelling

Authors: Sagaren Pillay

Abstract:

In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.

A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.

Keywords: Forecasting, lagged, linear, relationship.

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891 Hydraulic Studies on Core Components of PFBR

Authors: G. K. Pandey, D. Ramadasu, I. Banerjee, V. Vinod, G. Padmakumar, V. Prakash, K. K. Rajan

Abstract:

Detailed thermal hydraulic investigations are very  essential for safe and reliable functioning of liquid metal cooled fast  breeder reactors. These investigations are further more important for  components with complex profile, since there is no direct correlation  available in literature to evaluate the hydraulic characteristics of such  components directly. In those cases available correlations for similar  profile or geometries may lead to significant uncertainty in the  outcome. Hence experimental approach can be adopted to evaluate  these hydraulic characteristics more precisely for better prediction in  reactor core components.  Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), a sodium cooled pool  type reactor is under advanced stage of construction at Kalpakkam,  India. Several components of this reactor core require hydraulic  investigation before its usage in the reactor. These hydraulic  investigations on full scale models, carried out by experimental  approaches using water as simulant fluid are discussed in the paper. 

Keywords: Fast Breeder Reactor, Cavitation, pressure drop, Reactor components.

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890 Environmental Capacity and Sustainability of European Regional Airports: A Case Study

Authors: Nicola Gualandi, Luca Mantecchini, Davide Serrau

Abstract:

Airport capacity has always been perceived in the traditional sense as the number of aircraft operations during a specified time corresponding to a tolerable level of average delay and it mostly depends on the airside characteristics, on the fleet mix variability and on the ATM. The adoption of the Directive 2002/30/EC in the EU countries drives the stakeholders to conceive airport capacity in a different way though. Airport capacity in this sense is fundamentally driven by environmental criteria, and since acoustical externalities represent the most important factors, those are the ones that could pose a serious threat to the growth of airports and to aviation market itself in the short-medium term. The importance of the regional airports in the deregulated market grew fast during the last decade since they represent spokes for network carriers and a preferential destination for low-fares carriers. Not only regional airports have witnessed a fast and unexpected growth in traffic but also a fast growth in the complaints for the nuisance by the people living near those airports. In this paper the results of a study conducted in cooperation with the airport of Bologna G. Marconi are presented in order to investigate airport acoustical capacity as a defacto constraint of airport growth.

Keywords: Airport acoustical capacity, airport noise, air traffic noise, sustainability of regional airports.

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