Search results for: Autoregressive moving average

Authors: Lavanya Srinivasan

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Biometric identification is to identify unique features in a person like fingerprints, iris, ear, and voice recognition that need the subject's permission and physical contact. Gait biometric is used to identify the unique gait of the person by extracting moving features. The main advantage of gait biometric to identify the gait of a person at a distance, without any physical contact. In this work, the gait biometric is used for person re-identification. The person walking naturally compared with the same person walking with bag, coat and case recorded using long wave infrared, short wave infrared, medium wave infrared and visible cameras. The videos are recorded in rural and in urban environments. The pre-processing technique includes human identified using You Only Look Once, background subtraction, silhouettes extraction and synthesis Gait Entropy Image by averaging the silhouettes. The moving features are extracted from the Gait Entropy Energy Image. The extracted features are dimensionality reduced by the Principal Component Analysis and recognized using different classifiers. The comparative results with the different classifier show that Linear Discriminant Analysis outperform other classifiers with 95.8% for visible in the rural dataset and 94.8% for longwave infrared in the urban dataset.

Keywords: biometric, gait, silhouettes, You Only Look Once

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: Stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh River.

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Authors: M. Abdulkadir, V. Hernandez-Perez, S. Sharaf, I. S. Lowndes, B. J. Azzopardi

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This paper reports the results of an experimental study conducted to characterise the gas-liquid multiphase flows experienced within a vertical riser transporting a range of gas-liquid flow rates. The scale experiments were performed using an air/silicone oil mixture within a 6 m long riser. The superficial air velocities studied ranged from 0.047 to 2.836 m/ s, whilst maintaining a liquid superficial velocity at 0.047 m/ s. Measurements of the mean cross-sectional and time average radial void fraction were obtained using a wire mesh sensor (WMS). The data were recorded at an acquisition frequency of 1000 Hz over an interval of 60 seconds. For the range of flow conditions studied, the average void fraction was observed to vary between 0.1 and 0.9. An analysis of the data collected concluded that the observed void fraction was strongly affected by the superficial gas velocity, whereby the higher the superficial gas velocity, the higher was the observed average void fraction. The average void fraction distributions observed were in good agreement with the results obtained by other researchers. When the air-silicone oil flows were fully developed reasonably symmetric profiles were observed, with the shape of the symmetry profile being strongly dependent on the superficial gas velocity.

Keywords: WMS, phase distribution, silicone-oil, riser

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Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian

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The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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Authors: Jayesh K., Ganesh T., Suganthi D., Mohan R., Rakesh C. J., Sarojkumar D. M., Jacob S. J.

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Prior to the use of detectors, characteristics comparison study was performed and baseline established. In patient specific QA, the portal dosimetry mean values of area gamma, average gamma and maximum gamma were 1.02, 0.31 and 1.31 with standard deviation of 0.33, 0.03 and 0.14 for IMRT and the corresponding values were 1.58, 0.48 and 1.73 with standard deviation of 0.31, 0.06 and 0.66 for VMAT. With ImatriXX 2-D array system, on an average 99.35% of the pixels passed the criteria of 3%-3 mm gamma with standard deviation of 0.24 for dynamic IMRT. For VMAT, the average value was 98.16% with a standard deviation of 0.86. The results showed that both the systems can be used in patient specific QA measurements for IMRT and VMAT. The values obtained with the portal dosimetry system were found to be relatively more consistent compared to those obtained with ImatriXX 2-D array system.

Keywords: Gamma, IMRT, QA, TPS, VMAT.

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Authors: Mayowa Philips Ibitola, Abe Oluwaseun Banji, Olorunfemi Akinade-Solomon

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A total of 20 bottom sediment samples were collected from the Lekki Lagoon during the wet and dry season. The study was carried out to determine the textural characteristics, sediment distribution pattern and energy of transportation within the lagoon system. The sediment grain sizes and depth profiling was analyzed using dry sieving method and MATLAB algorithm for processing. The granulometric reveals fine grained sand both for the wet and dry season with an average mean value of 2.03 ϕ and -2.88 ϕ, respectively. Sediments were moderately sorted with an average inclusive standard deviation of 0.77 ϕ and -0.82 ϕ. Skewness varied from strongly coarse and near symmetrical 0.34- ϕ and 0.09 ϕ. The kurtosis average value was 0.87 ϕ and -1.4 ϕ (platykurtic and leptokurtic). Entirely, the bathymetry shows an average depth of 4.0 m. The deepest and shallowest area has a depth of 11.2 m and 0.5 m, respectively. High concentration of fine sand was observed at deep areas compared to the shallow areas during wet and dry season. Statistical parameter results show that the overall sediments are sorted, and deposited under low energy condition over a long distance. However, sediment distribution and sediment transport pattern of Lekki Lagoon is controlled by a low energy current and the down slope configuration of the bathymetry enhances the sorting and the deposition rate in the Lekki Lagoon.

Keywords: Lekki Lagoon, marine sediment, bathymetry, grain size distribution.

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Authors: Evisa Mitrou, Nicholas Tsitsianis, Supriya Shinde

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In the age of digitisation and globalisation, businesses have shifted online and are investing in big data analytics (BDA) to respond to changing market conditions and sustain their performance. Our study shifts the focus from the adoption of BDA to the impact of BDA on financial performance. We explore the financial performance of both BDA-vendors (business-to-business) and BDA-clients (business-to-customer). We distinguish between the five BDA-technologies (big-data-as-a-service (BDaaS), descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive analytics) and discuss them individually. Further, we use four perspectives (internal business process, learning and growth, customer, and finance) and discuss the significance of how each of the five BDA-technologies affect the performance measures of these four perspectives. We also present the analysis of employee engagement, average turnover, average net income, and average net assets for BDA-clients and BDA-vendors. Our study also explores the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on business continuity for both BDA-vendors and BDA-clients.

Keywords: BDA-clients, BDA-vendors, big data analytics, financial performance.

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Authors: Yilun Shang

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In this paper we consider a one-dimensional random geometric graph process with the inter-nodal gaps evolving according to an exponential AR(1) process. The transition probability matrix and stationary distribution are derived for the Markov chains concerning connectivity and the number of components. We analyze the algorithm for hitting time regarding disconnectivity. In addition to dynamical properties, we also study topological properties for static snapshots. We obtain the degree distributions as well as asymptotic precise bounds and strong law of large numbers for connectivity threshold distance and the largest nearest neighbor distance amongst others. Both exact results and limit theorems are provided in this paper.

Keywords: random geometric graph, autoregressive process, degree, connectivity, Markovian, wireless network.

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Authors: M.K. Bhuyan, Aragala Jagan.

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Current image-based individual human recognition methods, such as fingerprints, face, or iris biometric modalities generally require a cooperative subject, views from certain aspects, and physical contact or close proximity. These methods cannot reliably recognize non-cooperating individuals at a distance in the real world under changing environmental conditions. Gait, which concerns recognizing individuals by the way they walk, is a relatively new biometric without these disadvantages. The inherent gait characteristic of an individual makes it irreplaceable and useful in visual surveillance. In this paper, an efficient gait recognition system for human identification by extracting two features namely width vector of the binary silhouette and the MPEG-7-based region-based shape descriptors is proposed. In the proposed method, foreground objects i.e., human and other moving objects are extracted by estimating background information by a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and subsequently, median filtering operation is performed for removing noises in the background subtracted image. A moving target classification algorithm is used to separate human being (i.e., pedestrian) from other foreground objects (viz., vehicles). Shape and boundary information is used in the moving target classification algorithm. Subsequently, width vector of the outer contour of binary silhouette and the MPEG-7 Angular Radial Transform coefficients are taken as the feature vector. Next, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied to the selected feature vector to reduce its dimensionality. These extracted feature vectors are used to train an Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for identification of some individuals. The proposed system is evaluated using some gait sequences and the experimental results show the efficacy of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Gait Recognition, Gaussian Mixture Model, PrincipalComponent Analysis, MPEG-7 Angular Radial Transform.

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Authors: Tae-Hyub Hong, Choeng-Ryul Choi, Chang-Nyung Kim

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Human heart valves diseased by congenital heart defects, rheumatic fever, bacterial infection, cancer may cause stenosis or insufficiency in the valves. Treatment may be with medication but often involves valve repair or replacement (insertion of an artificial heart valve). Bileaflet mechanical heart valves (BMHVs) are widely implanted to replace the diseased heart valves, but still suffer from complications such as hemolysis, platelet activation, tissue overgrowth and device failure. These complications are closely related to both flow characteristics through the valves and leaflet dynamics. In this study, the physiological flow interacting with the moving leaflets in a bileaflet mechanical heart valve (BMHV) is simulated with a strongly coupled implicit fluid-structure interaction (FSI) method which is newly organized based on the Arbitrary-Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) approach and the dynamic mesh method (remeshing) of FLUENT. The simulated results are in good agreement with previous experimental studies. This study shows the applicability of the present FSI model to the complicated physics interacting between fluid flow and moving boundary.

Keywords: Bileaflet Mechanical Heart Valve, Fluid- Structure Interaction.

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Authors: Ziba Omidi, Min-Ki Kim

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This research presents the design, fabrication and application of a flavor sensor for an integrated electronic tongue and electronic nose that can allow rapid characterization of multi-component mixtures in a solution. The odor gas and liquid are separated using hydrophobic porous membrane in micro fluidic channel. The sensor uses an array composed of microbeads in micromachined cavities localized on silicon wafer. Sensing occurs via colorimetric and fluorescence changes to receptors and indicator molecules that are attached to termination sites on the polymeric microbeads. As a result, the sensor array system enables simultaneous and near-real-time analyses using small samples and reagent volumes with the capacity to incorporate significant redundancies. One of the key parts of the system is a passive pump driven only by capillary force. The hydrophilic surface of the fluidic structure draws the sample into the sensor array without any moving mechanical parts. Since there is no moving mechanical component in the structure, the size of the fluidic structure can be compact and the fabrication becomes simple when compared to the device including active microfluidic components. These factors should make the proposed system inexpensive to mass-produce, portable and compatible with biomedical applications.

Keywords: Optical Sensor, Semiconductor manufacturing, Smell sensor, Taste sensor.

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Authors: Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar

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The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Keywords: IDF curves, L-moments, regionalization, storm events.

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Authors: I. Erins, J. Erina

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The aim of the present article is to determine the impact of the external and internal factors of bank performance on the profitability indicators of the CEE countries banks in the period from 2006 to 2012. On the basis of research conducted abroad on bank and macroeconomic profitability indicators, in order to obtain research results, the authors evaluated return on average assets (ROAA) and return on average equity (ROAE) indicators of the CEE countries banks. The authors analyzed profitability indicators of banks using descriptive methods, SPSS data analysis methods, as well as data correlation and linear regression analysis. The authors concluded that most internal and external indicators of bank performance have no direct influence the profitability of the banks in the CEE countries. The only exceptions are credit risk and bank size, which affect one of the measures of bank profitability – return on average equity.

Keywords: Banks, CEE countries, Profitability ROAA, ROAE.

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Authors: Sameh Abu El-Soud, Zahra Zayed, Safwan Khedr, Adel M. Belal

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The population increase in Egypt is urging for horizontal land development which became a demand to allow the benefit of different natural resources and expand from the narrow Nile valley. However, this development is facing challenges preventing land development and agriculture development. Desertification and moving sand dunes in the west sector of Egypt are considered the major obstacle that is blocking the ideal land use and development. In the proposed research, the sandy soil is treated biologically using Bacillus pasteurii bacteria as these bacteria have the ability to bond the sand partials to change its state of loose sand to cemented sand, which reduces the moving ability of the sand dunes. The procedure of implementing the Microbial Induced Carbonate Precipitation Technique (MICP) technique is examined, and the different factors affecting on this process such as the medium of bacteria sample preparation, the optical density (OD600), the reactant concentration, injection rates and intervals are highlighted. Based on the findings of the MICP treatment for sandy soil, conclusions and future recommendations are reached.

Keywords: Soil stabilization, biological treatment, MICP, sand cementation.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: M. Selvaggi, F. Pinto, A. R. Pesce Delfino, A. Vicenti, C. Dario

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Data from 1731 Gentile di Puglia lambs, sired by 65 rams over a 5-year period were analyzed by a mixed model to estimate the variance components for heritability. The considered growth traits were: birth weight (BW), weight at 30 days of age (W30) and average daily gain from birth to 30 days of age (DG). Year of birth, sex of lamb, type of birth (single or twin), dam age at lambing and farm were significant sources of variation for all the considered growth traits. The average lamb weights were 3.85±0.16 kg at birth, 9.57±0.91 kg at 30 days of age and the average daily gain was 191±14 g. Estimates of heritability were 0.33±0.05, 0.41±0.06 and 0.16±0.05 respectively for the same traits. These values suggest there is a good opportunity to improve Gentile di Puglia lambs by selecting animals for growth traits.

Keywords: heritability estimate, growth traits, lambs, Gentile diPuglia.

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Authors: I. Kruashvili, I. Inashvili, K. Bziava, M. Lomishvili

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Seepage capillary anomalies in the active layer of soil, related to the soil water movement, often cause variation of soil hydrophysical properties and become one of the main objectives of the hydroecology. It is necessary to mention that all existing equations for computing the seepage flow particularly from soil channels, through dams, bulkheads, and foundations of hydraulic engineering structures are preferable based on the linear seepage law. Regarding the existing beliefs, anomalous seepage is based on postulates according to which the fluid in free volume is characterized by resistance against shear deformation and is presented in the form of initial gradient. According to the above-mentioned information, we have determined: Equation to calculate seepage coefficient when the velocity of transition flow is equal to seepage flow velocity; by means of power function, equations for the calculation of average and maximum velocities of seepage flow have been derived; taking into consideration the fluid continuity condition, average velocity for calculation of average velocity in capillary tube has been received.

Keywords: Seepage, soil, velocity, water.

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Authors: Kullanart Obsuwan, Suluck Namchote, Natdhera Sanmanee, Kamolchanok Panishkan, Sirichai Dharmvanij

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Humic acids (HAs) have been shown to activate some ion uptakes along with stimulating the lateral roots at effective concentration of micronutrients. However, the effects of HA on ion adsorption by plant roots are not easily explainable due to the varieties of HAs that differ from origins. Therefore, this study was aimed to investigate the effect of various concentrations of HA obtained from the compost derived from mix manures and some agricultural wastes on the growth of eggplant seedlings (Solanum melongena L. cv. Chao Praya) in tissue cultures at low nutrient level. Egg plant seeds were surfaced sterilized and germinated in ½ Murashige and Skoog medium (MS) without HA added or in ¼ MS supplemented with 0, 25, 50, 75 and 100 ppm of HAs. Then, they were cultured for 4 weeks under the controlled environment. The results showed that seedlings grown on ¼MS supplemented with HAs at the concentration of 25 and 50 ppm had the average plant heights (2.49 and 2.28 cm, respectively) higher than the other treatments. Both treatments also significantly showed the maximum average fresh and dry weights (p<0.05). Also the later yielded the highest average number of leaves and the longest average root length (p<0.05). However, there was no statistically different in the number of roots among treatments (p>0.05). This suggested that HAs at the concentration of 25 and 50 ppm could improve the growth of egg plant seedlings in tissue cultures at low nutrient level (¼ MS).

Keywords: growth, seedling, humic acid, fresh weght, dry weight, tissue culture

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Authors: Vilma Deltuvaitė

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Comparisons of financial development across countries are central to answering many of the questions on factors leading to economic development. For this reason this study analyzes the implications of financial system’s development on country’s economic development. The aim of the article: to analyze the impact of financial system’s development on economic development. The following research methods were used: systemic, logical and comparative analysis of scientific literature, analysis of statistical data, time series model (Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model). The empirical results suggest about positive short and long term effect of stock market development on GDP per capita.

Keywords: Banking sector, economic development, financial system’s development, stock market, private bond market.

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Authors: Habtu Alemayehu, G. Radhakrishnamacharya

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The paper presents an analytical solution for dispersion of a solute in the peristaltic motion of a couple stress fluid through a porous medium with slip condition in the presence of both homogeneous and heterogeneous chemical reactions. The average effective dispersion coefficient has been found using Taylor-s limiting condition and long wavelength approximation. The effects of various relevant parameters on the average coefficient of dispersion have been studied. The average effective dispersion coefficient tends to increase with permeability parameter but tends to decrease with homogeneous chemical reaction rate parameter, couple stress parameter, slip parameter and heterogeneous reaction rate parameter.

Keywords: Dispersion, Peristalsis, Couple stress fluid, Porousmedium, Chemical reaction, Slip condition.

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Authors: Martin J.-D. Otis, Thien-Ly Nguyen-Dang, Thierry Laliberte, Denis Ouellet, Denis Laurendeau, Clement Gosselin

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A Cable-Driven Locomotion Interface provides a low inertia haptic interface and is used as a way of enabling the user to walk and interact with virtual surfaces. These surfaces generate Cartesian wrenches which must be optimized for each motorized reel in order to reproduce a haptic sensation in both feet. However, the use of wrench control requires a measure of the cable tensions applied to the moving platform. The latter measure may be inaccurate if it is based on sensors located near the reel. Moreover, friction hysteresis from the reel moving parts needs to be compensated for with an evaluation of low angular velocity of the motor shaft. Also, the pose of the platform is not known precisely due to cable sagging and mechanical deformation. This paper presents a non-ideal motorized reel design with its corresponding control strategy that aims at overcoming the aforementioned issues. A transfert function of the reel based on frequency responses in function of cable tension and cable length is presented with an optimal adaptative PIDF controller. Finally, an hybrid position/tension control is discussed with an analysis of the stability for achieving a complete functionnality of the haptic platform.

Keywords: haptic, reel, transparency, cable, tension, control

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Authors: Ramesh K. Sunkaria

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The linear methods of heart rate variability analysis such as non-parametric (e.g. fast Fourier transform analysis) and parametric methods (e.g. autoregressive modeling) has become an established non-invasive tool for marking the cardiac health, but their sensitivity and specificity were found to be lower than expected with positive predictive value <30%. This may be due to considering the RR-interval series as stationary and re-sampling them prior to their use for analysis, whereas actually it is not. This paper reviews the non-linear methods of HRV analysis such as correlation dimension, largest Lyupnov exponent, power law slope, fractal analysis, detrended fluctuation analysis, complexity measure etc. which are currently becoming popular as these uses the actual RR-interval series. These methods are expected to highly accurate cardiac health prognosis.

Keywords: chaos, nonlinear dynamics, sample entropy, approximate entropy, detrended fluctuation analysis.

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Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

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This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model.

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Authors: M. V. Ramana Rao, T. Adilakshmi

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Based on application requirements, nodes are static or mobile in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). Mobility poses challenges in protocol design, especially at the link layer requiring mobility adaptation algorithms to localize mobile nodes and predict link quality to be established with them. This study implements XMAC and Berkeley Media Access Control (BMAC) routing protocols to evaluate performance under WSN’s static and mobility conditions. This paper gives a comparative study of mobility-aware MAC protocols. Routing protocol performance, based on Average End to End Delay, Average Packet Delivery Ratio, Average Number of hops, and Jitter is evaluated.

Keywords: Wireless Sensor Network (WSN), Medium Access Control (MAC), Berkeley Media Access Control (BMAC), mobility.

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Authors: Yun Won Chung

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The energy consumption of home femto base stations (BSs) can be reduced, by turning off the Wi-Fi radio interface when there is no mobile station (MS) under the coverage of the BSs or MSs do not transmit or receive data packet for long time, especially in late night. In the energy-efficient home femto BSs, if MSs have any data packet to transmit and the Wi-Fi radio interface in off state, MSs wake up the Wi-Fi radio interface of home femto BSs by using additional low power radio interface. In this paper, the performance of the energy-efficient home femto BSs from the aspect of energy consumption and cumulative average delay, and show the effect of various parameters on energy consumption and cumulative average delay. From the results, the tradeoff relationship between energy consumption and cumulative average delay is shown and thus, appropriate operation should be needed to balance the tradeoff.

Keywords: energy consumption, power saving, femto base station.

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Authors: D. Jakovčević, M. Mihelja Žaja

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence and relative share of underwriting risks in explaining the variation in insurance cycles in subsequent periods. Through the insurance contracts they underwrite, insurance companies assume risks. Underwriting risks include pricing risk, reserve risk, reinsurance risk and occurrence risk. These risks pose major risks for property and liability insurers, and therefore their impact on the insurance cycle is important. The main goal of this paper is to determine the relative proportion of underwriting risks in explaining the variation of insurance cycle. In order to fulfill the main goal of the paper vector autoregressive model, VAR, will be applied.

Keywords: Insurance cycle, insurance risks, combined ratio, Republic of Croatia.

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Authors: Olfa.Ben Ahmed, Mahmoud. Mejdoub, Chokri. Ben Amar

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Recognizing human action from videos is an active field of research in computer vision and pattern recognition. Human activity recognition has many potential applications such as video surveillance, human machine interaction, sport videos retrieval and robot navigation. Actually, local descriptors and bag of visuals words models achieve state-of-the-art performance for human action recognition. The main challenge in features description is how to represent efficiently the local motion information. Most of the previous works focus on the extension of 2D local descriptors on 3D ones to describe local information around every interest point. In this paper, we propose a new spatio-temporal descriptor based on a spacetime description of moving points. Our description is focused on an Accordion representation of video which is well-suited to recognize human action from 2D local descriptors without the need to 3D extensions. We use the bag of words approach to represent videos. We quantify 2D local descriptor describing both temporal and spatial features with a good compromise between computational complexity and action recognition rates. We have reached impressive results on publicly available action data set

Keywords: Accordion, Bag of Features, Human action, Motion, Moving point, Space-Time Descriptor, SIFT, Video.

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Authors: Sirimanee Banjong

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This study aimed to 1) develop pre-service teachers’ leadership skills through camp-based learning, and 2) develop preservice teachers’ teamwork skills through camp-based learning. An applied research methodology was used. The target group was derived from a purposive selection. It involved 32 fourth-year students in Early Childhood Education Program enrolling a course entitled Seminar in Early Childhood Education provided during second semester of academic year 2013. The treatment was camp-based learning activities which applied a PDCA process including four stages: 1) plan, 2) do, 3) check, and 4) act. Research instruments were a learning camp program, a camp-based learning management plan, a 5-level assessment form for leadership skills and a 5-level assessment form for assessing teamwork skills. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results were: 1) pre-service teachers’ leadership skills yielded the before treatment average score at x= 3.4, S.D.=0.6 2and the after-treatment average score at x 4.29 , S.D.=0.66 pre-service teachers’ teamwork skills yielded the before-treatment average score at x=3.31, S.D.=0.60 and the after-treatment average score at x=4.42, S.D.=0.66 Both differences were statistically significant at the .05 level. Thus, the pre-service teachers’ leadership and teamwork skills were significantly improved through the camp-based learning approach.

Keywords: Learning camp, leadership skills, teamwork skills.

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Authors: Heng Han, Zhilei Liang, Xiangong Zhou

Abstract:

In this paper, the finite element method is used to study the temperature field of the main cable of the suspension bridge, and the calculation method of the average temperature of the cross-section of the main cable suitable for the construction control of the cable system is proposed. By comparing and analyzing the temperature field of the main cable with five diameters, a reasonable diameter limit for calculating the average temperature of the cross section of the main cable by finite element method is proposed. The results show that the maximum error of this method is less than 1 ℃, which meets the requirements of construction control accuracy. For the main cable with a diameter greater than 400 mm, the surface temperature measuring points combined with the finite element method shall be used to calculate the average cross-section temperature.

Keywords: Suspension bridge, main cable, temperature field, finite element.

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Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

Abstract:

In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: Deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction.

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