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Forecasting the Volatility of Geophysical Time Series with Stochastic Volatility Models
Abstract:This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1132226Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 711
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