Search results for: 9/7 Wavelets Error Sensitivity WES

Authors: A. Bumbová, M. Čáslavský, F. Božek, J. Dvořák

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The paper deals with the analysis of hazards and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply of population in a selected region of the Czech Republic. The procedure of identification and analysis of hazards and sensitivity is carried out on the basis of a unique methodology of classifying the drinking water resources earmarked for emergency supply of population. The hazard identification is based on a general register of hazards for individual parts of hydrological structure and the elements of technological equipment. It is followed by a semi-quantitative point indexation for the activation of each identified hazard, i.e. fires of anthropogenic origin, flood and the increased radioactive background accompanied by the leak of radon. Point indexation of sensitivity has been carried out at the same time. The analysis is the basis for a risk assessment of potential resource of emergency supply of population and the subsequent classification of such resource within the system of crisis planning.

Keywords: Hazard identification, sensitivity, semi-quantitative assessment, emergency water supply, crisis situation, ground water.

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Authors: Desmond B. Keenan

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The clinical usefulness of heart rate variability is limited to the range of Holter monitoring software available. These software algorithms require a normal sinus rhythm to accurately acquire heart rate variability (HRV) measures in the frequency domain. Premature ventricular contractions (PVC) or more commonly referred to as ectopic beats, frequent in heart failure, hinder this analysis and introduce ambiguity. This investigation demonstrates an algorithm to automatically detect ectopic beats by analyzing discrete wavelet transform coefficients. Two techniques for filtering and replacing the ectopic beats from the RR signal are compared. One technique applies wavelet hard thresholding techniques and another applies linear interpolation to replace ectopic cycles. The results demonstrate through simulation, and signals acquired from a 24hr ambulatory recorder, that these techniques can accurately detect PVC-s and remove the noise and leakage effects produced by ectopic cycles retaining smooth spectra with the minimum of error.

Keywords: Heart rate variability, vagal tone, sympathetic, parasympathetic, wavelets, ectopic beats, spectral analysis.

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Authors: Mahdi Yaghobi, Mohammad Haeri

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The current methods of predictive controllers are utilized for those processes in which the rate of output variations is not high. For such processes, therefore, stability can be achieved by implementing the constrained predictive controller or applying infinite prediction horizon. When the rate of the output growth is high (e.g. for unstable nonminimum phase process) the stabilization seems to be problematic. In order to avoid this, it is suggested to change the method in the way that: first, the prediction error growth should be decreased at the early stage of the prediction horizon, and second, the rate of the error variation should be penalized. The growth of the error is decreased through adjusting its weighting coefficients in the cost function. Reduction in the error variation is possible by adding the first order derivate of the error into the cost function. By studying different examples it is shown that using these two remedies together, the closed-loop stability of unstable nonminimum phase process can be achieved.

Keywords: GPC, Stability, Varying Weighting Coefficients.

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Authors: S. Swain, P. S Khuntia

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In this paper, the unstable angle of attack of a FOXTROT aircraft is controlled by using Genetic Algorithm based flight controller and the result is compared with the conventional techniques like Tyreus-Luyben (TL), Ziegler-Nichols (ZN) and Interpolation Rule (IR) for tuning the PID controller. In addition, the performance indices like Mean Square Error (MSE), Integral Square Error (ISE), and Integral Absolute Time Error (IATE) etc. are improved by using Genetic Algorithm. It was established that the error by using GA is very less as compared to the conventional techniques thereby improving the performance indices of the dynamic system.

Keywords: Angle of Attack, Genetic Algorithm, Performance Indices, PID Controller.

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Authors: Chaiwat Tantarangsee

Abstract:

The purposes of this study are 1) to study the effects of participatory error correction process and 2) to find out the students’ satisfaction of such error correction process. This study is a Quasi Experimental Research with single group, in which data is collected 5 times preceding and following 4 experimental studies of participatory error correction process including providing coded indirect corrective feedback in the students’ texts with error treatment activities. Samples include 52 2nd year English Major students, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Tool for experimental study includes the lesson plan of the course; Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and tools for data collection include 5 writing tests of short texts and a questionnaire. Based on formative evaluation of the students’ writing ability prior to and after each of the 4 experiments, the research findings disclose the students’ higher scores with statistical difference at 0.00. Moreover, in terms of the effect size of such process, it is found that for mean of the students’ scores prior to and after the 4 experiments; d equals 0.6801, 0.5093, 0.5071, and 0.5296 respectively. It can be concluded that participatory error correction process enables all of the students to learn equally well and there is improvement in their ability to write short texts. Finally the students’ overall satisfaction of the participatory error correction process is in high level (Mean = 4.39, S.D. = 0.76).

Keywords: Coded indirect corrective feedback, participatory error correction process, error treatment.

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Authors: Ondrej Baran, Miroslav Kasal, Petr Vagner, Tomas Urbanec

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This paper deals with the modeling and the evaluation of a multiplicative phase noise influence on the bit error ratio in a general space communication system. Our research is focused on systems with multi-state phase shift keying modulation techniques and it turns out, that the phase noise significantly affects the bit error rate, especially for higher signal to noise ratios. These results come from a system model created in Matlab environment and are shown in a form of constellation diagrams and bit error rate dependencies. The change of a user data bit rate is also considered and included into simulation results. Obtained outcomes confirm theoretical presumptions.

Keywords: Additive thermal noise, AWGN, BER, bit error rate, multiplicative phase noise, phase shift keying.

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Authors: Anjana Choudhary

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The ad hoc networks are the future of wireless technology as everyone wants fast and accurate error free information so keeping this in mind Bit Error Rate (BER) and power is optimized in this research paper by using the Genetic Algorithm (GA). The digital modulation techniques used for this paper are Binary Phase Shift Keying (BPSK), M-ary Phase Shift Keying (M-ary PSK), and Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (QAM). This work is implemented on Wireless Ad Hoc Networks (WLAN). Then it is analyze which modulation technique is performing well to optimize the BER and power of WLAN.

Keywords: Bit Error Rate, Genetic Algorithm, Power, Phase Shift Keying, Quadrature Amplitude Modulation, Signal to Noise Ratio, Wireless Ad Hoc Networks.

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Authors: M. Arulvizhi

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In Multiuser MIMO communication systems, interuser interference has a strong impact on the transmitted signals. Precoding technique schemes are employed for multiuser broadcast channels to suppress an interuser interference. Different Linear and nonlinear precoding schemes are there. For the massive system dimension, it is difficult to design an appropriate precoding algorithm with low computational complexity and good error rate performance at the same time over fading channels. This paper describes the error rate performance of precoding schemes over fading channels with the assumption of perfect channel state information at the transmitter. To estimate the bit error rate performance, different propagation environments namely, Rayleigh, Rician and Nakagami fading channels have been offered. This paper presents the error rate performance comparison of these fading channels based on precoding methods like Channel Inversion and Dirty paper coding for multiuser broadcasting system. MATLAB simulation has been used. It is observed that multiuser system achieves better error rate performance by Dirty paper coding over Rayleigh fading channel.

Keywords: Multiuser MIMO, channel inversion precoding, dirty paper coding, fading channels, BER.

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Authors: Abhijit Mitra

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A special case of floating point data representation is block floating point format where a block of operands are forced to have a joint exponent term. This paper deals with the finite wordlength properties of this data format. The theoretical errors associated with the error model for block floating point quantization process is investigated with the help of error distribution functions. A fast and easy approximation formula for calculating signal-to-noise ratio in quantization to block floating point format is derived. This representation is found to be a useful compromise between fixed point and floating point format due to its acceptable numerical error properties over a wide dynamic range.

Keywords: Block floating point, Roundoff error, Block exponent dis-tribution fuction, Signal factor.

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Authors: R. Bremananth, A. Chitra

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Cryptography provides the secure manner of information transmission over the insecure channel. It authenticates messages based on the key but not on the user. It requires a lengthy key to encrypt and decrypt the sending and receiving the messages, respectively. But these keys can be guessed or cracked. Moreover, Maintaining and sharing lengthy, random keys in enciphering and deciphering process is the critical problem in the cryptography system. A new approach is described for generating a crypto key, which is acquired from a person-s iris pattern. In the biometric field, template created by the biometric algorithm can only be authenticated with the same person. Among the biometric templates, iris features can efficiently be distinguished with individuals and produces less false positives in the larger population. This type of iris code distribution provides merely less intra-class variability that aids the cryptosystem to confidently decrypt messages with an exact matching of iris pattern. In this proposed approach, the iris features are extracted using multi resolution wavelets. It produces 135-bit iris codes from each subject and is used for encrypting/decrypting the messages. The autocorrelators are used to recall original messages from the partially corrupted data produced by the decryption process. It intends to resolve the repudiation and key management problems. Results were analyzed in both conventional iris cryptography system (CIC) and non-repudiation iris cryptography system (NRIC). It shows that this new approach provides considerably high authentication in enciphering and deciphering processes.

Keywords: Autocorrelators, biometrics cryptography, irispatterns, wavelets.

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Authors: Sudeept Mohan, Surekha Bhanot

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The problem of manipulator control is a highly complex problem of controlling a system which is multi-input, multioutput, non-linear and time variant. In this paper some adaptive fuzzy, and a new hybrid fuzzy control algorithm have been comparatively evaluated through simulations, for manipulator control. The adaptive fuzzy controllers consist of self-organizing, self-tuning, and coarse/fine adaptive fuzzy schemes. These controllers are tested for different trajectories and for varying manipulator parameters through simulations. Various performance indices like the RMS error, steady state error and maximum error are used for comparison. It is observed that the self-organizing fuzzy controller gives the best performance. The proposed hybrid fuzzy plus integral error controller also performs remarkably well, given its simple structure.

Keywords: Hybrid fuzzy, Self-organizing, Self-tuning, Trajectory tracking.

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Authors: Shiraz Ahmad, Zhe-Ming Lu

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An effective visual error concealment method has been presented by employing a robust rotation, scale, and translation (RST) invariant partial patch matching model (RSTI-PPMM) and exemplar-based inpainting. While the proposed robust and inherently feature-enhanced texture synthesis approach ensures the generation of excellent and perceptually plausible visual error concealment results, the outlier pruning property guarantees the significant quality improvements, both quantitatively and qualitatively. No intermediate user-interaction is required for the pre-segmented media and the presented method follows a bootstrapping approach for an automatic visual loss recovery and the image and video error concealment.

Keywords: Exemplar-based image and video inpainting, outlierpruning, RST-invariant partial patch matching model (RSTI-PPMM), visual error concealment.

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Authors: Fangfang Meng, Shuang Cong

Abstract:

In the closed quantum system, if the control system is strongly regular and all other eigenstates are directly coupled to the target state, the control system can be asymptotically stabilized at the target eigenstate by the Lyapunov control based on the state error. However, if the control system is not strongly regular or as long as there is one eigenstate not directly coupled to the target state, the situations will become complicated. In this paper, we propose an implicit Lyapunov control method based on the state error to solve the convergence problems for these two degenerate cases. And at the same time, we expand the target state from the eigenstate to the arbitrary pure state. Especially, the proposed method is also applicable in the control system with multi-control Hamiltonians. On this basis, the convergence of the control systems is analyzed using the LaSalle invariance principle. Furthermore, the relation between the implicit Lyapunov functions of the state distance and the state error is investigated. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed implicit Lyapunov control method. The comparisons of the control effect using the implicit Lyapunov control method based on the state distance with that of the state error are given.

Keywords: Implicit Lyapunov control, state error, degenerate cases, convergence.

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Authors: Kamil Ďurana, Robert Černý

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An electrical apparatus for measuring moisture content was developed by our laboratory and uses dependence of electrical properties on water content in studied material. Error analysis of the apparatus was run by measuring different volumes of water in a simplified specimen, i.e. hollow plexiglass block, in order to avoid as many side-effects as possible. Obtained data were processed using both basic and advanced statistics and results were compared with each other. The influence of water content on accuracy of measured data was studied as well as the influence of variation of apparatus' proper arrangement or factual methodics of its usage. The overall coefficient of variation was 4%. There was no trend found in results of error dependence on water content. Comparison with current surveys led to a conclusion, that the studied apparatus can be used for indirect measurement of water content in porous materials, with expectable error and under known conditions. Factual experiments with porous materials are not involved, but are currently under investigation.

Keywords: device, capacitance method, error analysis, moisture meter

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Authors: R. Sabre, W. Horrigue, J. C. Simon

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This paper is interested in two difficulties encountered in practice when observing a continuous time process. The first is that we cannot observe a process over a time interval; we only take discrete observations. The second is the process frequently observed with a constant additive error. It is important to give an estimator of the spectral density of such a process taking into account the additive observation error and the choice of the discrete observation times. In this work, we propose an estimator based on the spectral smoothing of the periodogram by the polynomial Jackson kernel reducing the additive error. In order to solve the aliasing phenomenon, this estimator is constructed from observations taken at well-chosen times so as to reduce the estimator to the field where the spectral density is not zero. We show that the proposed estimator is asymptotically unbiased and consistent. Thus we obtain an estimate solving the two difficulties concerning the choice of the instants of observations of a continuous time process and the observations affected by a constant error.

Keywords: Spectral density, stable processes, aliasing, periodogram.

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Authors: P. B. Sob, A. A. Alugongo, T. B. Tengen

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The activation volume of 6082T6 aluminum is investigated at different temperatures for grain size variants. The deformation activation volume was computed on the basis of the relationship between the Boltzmann’s constant k, the testing temperatures, the material strain rate sensitivity and the material yield stress grain size variants. The material strain rate sensitivity is computed as a function of yield stress and strain rate grain size variants. The effect of the material strain rate sensitivity and the deformation activation volume of 6082T6 aluminum at different temperatures of 3-D grain are discussed. It is shown that the strain rate sensitivities and activation volume are negative for the grain size variants during the deformation of nanostructured materials. It is also observed that the activation volume vary in different ways with the equivalent radius, semi minor axis radius, semi major axis radius and major axis radius. From the obtained results it is shown that the variation of activation volume increase and decrease with the testing temperature. It was revealed that, increase in strain rate sensitivity led to decrease in activation volume whereas increase in activation volume led to decrease in strain rate sensitivity.

Keywords: Nanostructured materials, grain size variants, temperature, yield stress, strain rate sensitivity, activation volume.

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Authors: Jun Sung Go, Jong Kang Park, Jong Tae Kim

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As semi-conductor manufacturing technology evolves; the single event transient problem becomes more significant issue. Single event transient has a critical impact on both combinational and sequential logic circuits, so it is important to evaluate the soft error tolerance of the circuits at the design stage. In this paper, we present a soft error detecting simulation using scan chain. The simulation model generates a single event transient randomly in the circuit, and detects the soft error during the execution of the test patterns. We verified this model by inserting a scan chain in an 8051 microprocessor using 65 nm CMOS technology. While the test patterns generated by ATPG program are passing through the scan chain, we insert a single event transient and detect the number of soft errors per sub-module. The experiments show that the soft error rates per cell area of the SFR module is 277% larger than other modules.

Keywords: Scan chain, single event transient, soft error, 8051 processor.

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Authors: Chaiwat Tantarangsee

Abstract:

The purposes of this study are 1) to study the frequent English writing errors of students registering the course: Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and 2) to find out the results of writing error correction by using coded indirect corrective feedback and writing error treatments. Samples include 28 2nd year English Major students, Faculty of Education, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Tool for experimental study includes the lesson plan of the course; Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and tool for data collection includes 4 writing tests of short texts. The research findings disclose that frequent English writing errors found in this course comprise 7 types of grammatical errors, namely Fragment sentence, Subject-verb agreement, Wrong form of verb tense, Singular or plural noun endings, Run-ons sentence, Wrong form of verb pattern and Lack of parallel structure. Moreover, it is found that the results of writing error correction by using coded indirect corrective feedback and error treatment reveal the overall reduction of the frequent English writing errors and the increase of students’ achievement in the writing of short texts with the significance at .05.

Keywords: Coded indirect corrective feedback, error correction, error treatment, frequent English writing errors.

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Authors: Johann Barbier, Guillaume Sicot, Sebastien Houcke

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In this paper we present a generic approach for the problem of the blind estimation of the parameters of linear and convolutional error correcting codes. In a non-cooperative context, an adversary has only access to the noised transmission he has intercepted. The intercepter has no knowledge about the parameters used by the legal users. So, before having acess to the information he has first to blindly estimate the parameters of the error correcting code of the communication. The presented approach has the main advantage that the problem of reconstruction of such codes can be expressed in a very simple way. This allows us to evaluate theorical bounds on the complexity of the reconstruction process but also bounds on the estimation rate. We show that some classical reconstruction techniques are optimal and also explain why some of them have theorical complexities greater than these experimentally observed.

Keywords: Blind estimation parameters, error correcting codes, non-cooperative context, reconstruction algorithm

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Authors: Chaiwat Tantarangsee

Abstract:

The purposes of this study are 1) to study the frequent English writing errors of students registering the course: Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and 2) to find out the results of writing error correction by using coded indirect corrective feedback and writing error treatments. Samples include 28 2nd year English Major students, Faculty of Education, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Tool for experimental study includes the lesson plan of the course; Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and tool for data collection includes 4 writing tests of short texts. The research findings disclose that frequent English writing errors found in this course comprise 7 types of grammatical errors, namely Fragment sentence, Subject-verb agreement, Wrong form of verb tense, Singular or plural noun endings, Run-ons sentence, Wrong form of verb pattern and Lack of parallel structure. Moreover, it is found that the results of writing error correction by using coded indirect corrective feedback and error treatment reveal the overall reduction of the frequent English writing errors and the increase of students’ achievement in the writing of short texts with the significance at .05.

Keywords: Coded indirect corrective feedback, error correction, and error treatment.

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Authors: Matthias Kirmse, Uwe Petersohn, Elief Paffrath

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As in today's semiconductor industries test costs can make up to 50 percent of the total production costs, an efficient test error detection becomes more and more important. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to test error detection that should provide a faster recognition of test system faults as well as an improved test error recall. The key idea is to learn a classifier ensemble, detecting typical test error patterns in wafer test results immediately after finishing these tests. Since test error detection has not yet been discussed in the machine learning community, we define central problem-relevant terms and provide an analysis of important domain properties. Finally, we present comparative studies reflecting the failure detection performance of three individual classifiers and three ensemble methods based upon them. As base classifiers we chose a decision tree learner, a support vector machine and a Bayesian network, while the compared ensemble methods were simple and weighted majority vote as well as stacking. For the evaluation, we used cross validation and a specially designed practical simulation. By implementing our approach in a semiconductor test department for the observation of two products, we proofed its practical applicability.

Keywords: Ensemble methods, fault detection, machine learning, semiconductor test.

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Authors: J.S.C. Prentice

Abstract:

The RK5GL3 method is a numerical method for solving initial value problems in ordinary differential equations, and is based on a combination of a fifth-order Runge-Kutta method and 3-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature. In this paper we describe the propagation of local errors in this method, and show that the global order of RK5GL3 is expected to be six, one better than the underlying Runge- Kutta method.

Keywords: RK5GL3, RKrGLm, Runge-Kutta, Gauss-Legendre, initial value problem, order, local error, global error.

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Authors: J. Kala, J. Melcher, M. Škaloud, Z. Kala

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In the paper, the results of sensitivity analysis of the influence of initial imperfections on the web stress state of a thinwalled girder are presented. The results of the study corroborate a very good and effective agreement of experiments with theory. Most input random quantities were found experimentally. The change of sensitivity coefficients in dependence on working load value is analysed. The stress was analysed by means of a geometrically and materially non-linear solution by applying the program ANSYS. This research study offers important background for theoretical studies of stability problems, post-critical effects and limit states of thin-walled steel structures.

Keywords: Buckling, Fatigue, Imperfection, Steel, Sensitivity analysis.

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Authors: Sandra Ondrušová, Jaroslav Polec

Abstract:

Arbitrarily shaped video objects are an important concept in modern video coding methods. The techniques presently used are not based on image elements but rather video objects having an arbitrary shape. In this paper, spatial shape error concealment techniques to be used for object-based image in error-prone environments are proposed. We consider a geometric shape representation consisting of the object boundary, which can be extracted from the α-plane. Three different approaches are used to replace a missing boundary segment: Bézier interpolation, Bézier approximation and NURBS approximation. Experimental results on object shape with different concealment difficulty demonstrate the performance of the proposed methods. Comparisons with proposed methods are also presented.

Keywords: error concealment, shape coding, object-based image, NURBS, Bézier curves.

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Authors: Hyun-Gwang Cho, Wan-Seok Yang, Su-Jin Kim, Jeong-Seok Oh, Chun-Hong Park

Abstract:

Machine tools are improved capacity remarkably during the 20th century. Improving the precision of machine tools are related with precision of products and accurate processing is always associated with the subject of interest. There are a lot of the elements that determine the precision of the machine, as guides, motors, structure, control, etc. In this paper we focused on the phenomenon that vertical movement system has worse precision than horizontal movement system even they were made up with same components. The vertical movement system needs to be studied differently from the horizontal movement system to develop its precision. The vertical movement system has load on its transfer direction and it makes the movement system weak in precision than the horizontal one. Some machines have mechanical counter balance, hydraulic or pneumatic counter balance to compensate the weight of the machine head. And there is several type of compensating the weight. It can push the machine head and also can use chain or wire lope to transfer the compensating force from counter balance to machine head. According to the type of compensating, there could be error from friction, pressure error of hydraulic or pressure control error. Also according to what to use for transferring the compensating force, transfer error of compensating force could be occur.

Keywords: Chain chordal action, counter balance, setup error, vertical positioning system.

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Authors: Kalyan Chatterjee

Abstract:

The optimal design of PI controller for Automatic Generation Control in two area is presented in this paper. The concept of Dual mode control is applied in the PI controller, such that the proportional mode is made active when the rate of change of the error is sufficiently larger than a specified limit otherwise switched to the integral mode. A digital simulation is used in conjunction with the Hooke-Jeeve’s optimization technique to determine the optimum parameters (individual gain of proportional and integral controller) of the PI controller. Integrated Square of the Error (ISE), Integrated Time multiplied by Absolute Error(ITAE) , and Integrated Absolute Error(IAE) performance indices are considered to measure the appropriateness of the designed controller.  The proposed controller are tested for a two area single nonreheat thermal system considering the practical aspect of the problem such as Deadband and Generation Rate Constraint(GRC). Simulation results show that  dual mode with optimized values of the gains improved the control performance than the commonly used Variable Structure .

Keywords: Load Frequency Control, Area Control Error(ACE), Dual Mode PI Controller, Performance Index

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Authors: Insung Jung, lockjo Koo, Gi-Nam Wang

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to design a model of human vital sign prediction for decreasing prediction error by using two states mapping based time series neural network BP (back-propagation) model. Normally, lot of industries has been applying the neural network model by training them in a supervised manner with the error back-propagation algorithm for time series prediction systems. However, it still has a residual error between real value and prediction output. Therefore, we designed two states of neural network model for compensation of residual error which is possible to use in the prevention of sudden death and metabolic syndrome disease such as hypertension disease and obesity. We found that most of simulations cases were satisfied by the two states mapping based time series prediction model compared to normal BP. In particular, small sample size of times series were more accurate than the standard MLP model. We expect that this algorithm can be available to sudden death prevention and monitoring AGENT system in a ubiquitous homecare environment.

Keywords: Neural network, U-healthcare, prediction, timeseries, computer aided prediction.

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Authors: Mehmet Ozcan

Abstract:

This study is designed to investigate errors emerged in written texts produced by 30 Turkish EFL learners with an explanatory, and thus, qualitative perspective. Erroneous language elements were identified by the researcher first and then their grammaticality and intelligibility were checked by five native speakers of English. The analysis of the data showed that it is difficult to claim that an error stems from only one single factor since different features of an error are triggered by different factors. Our findings revealed two different types of errors: those which stem from the interference of L1 with L2 and those which are developmental ones. The former type contains more global errors whereas the errors in latter type are more intelligible.

Keywords: Contrastive analysis, Error analysis, Language acquisition, Language transfer, Turkish

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Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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Authors: Davod Khojasteh Salkuyeh

Abstract:

An important task in solving second order linear ordinary differential equations by the finite difference is to choose a suitable stepsize h. In this paper, by using the stochastic arithmetic, the CESTAC method and the CADNA library we present a procedure to estimate the optimal stepsize hopt, the stepsize which minimizes the global error consisting of truncation and round-off error.

Keywords: Ordinary differential equations, optimal stepsize, error, stochastic arithmetic, CESTAC, CADNA.

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