Search results for: Performance Indices
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5910

Search results for: Performance Indices

5910 Comparative Analysis of Diversity and Similarity Indices with Special Relevance to Vegetations around Sewage Drains

Authors: Ekta Singh

Abstract:

Indices summarizing community structure are used to evaluate fundamental community ecology, species interaction, biogeographical factors, and environmental stress. Some of these indices are insensitive to gross community changes induced by contaminants of pollution. Diversity indices and similarity indices are reviewed considering their ecological application, both theoretical and practical. For some useful indices, empirical equations are given to calculate the expected maximum value of the indices to which the observed values can be related at any combination of sample sizes at the experimental sites. This paper examines the effects of sample size and diversity on the expected values of diversity indices and similarity indices, using various formulae. It has been shown that all indices are strongly affected by sample size and diversity. In some indices, this influence is greater than the others and an attempt has been made to deal with these influences.

Keywords: Biogeographical factors, Diversity Indices, Ecology and Similarity Indices

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5909 Controlling the Angle of Attack of an Aircraft Using Genetic Algorithm Based Flight Controller

Authors: S. Swain, P. S Khuntia

Abstract:

In this paper, the unstable angle of attack of a FOXTROT aircraft is controlled by using Genetic Algorithm based flight controller and the result is compared with the conventional techniques like Tyreus-Luyben (TL), Ziegler-Nichols (ZN) and Interpolation Rule (IR) for tuning the PID controller. In addition, the performance indices like Mean Square Error (MSE), Integral Square Error (ISE), and Integral Absolute Time Error (IATE) etc. are improved by using Genetic Algorithm. It was established that the error by using GA is very less as compared to the conventional techniques thereby improving the performance indices of the dynamic system.

Keywords: Angle of Attack, Genetic Algorithm, Performance Indices, PID Controller.

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5908 Binary Programming for Manufacturing Material and Manufacturing Process Selection Using Genetic Algorithms

Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

The material selection problem is concerned with the determination of the right material for a certain product to optimize certain performance indices in that product such as mass, energy density, and power-to-weight ratio. This paper is concerned about optimizing the selection of the manufacturing process along with the material used in the product under performance indices and availability constraints. In this paper, the material selection problem is formulated using binary programming and solved by genetic algorithm. The objective function of the model is to minimize the total manufacturing cost under performance indices and material and manufacturing process availability constraints.

Keywords: Optimization, Material selection, Process selection, Genetic algorithm.

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5907 Statistical Properties and Performance of Ecological Indices Based On Relative Abundances

Authors: Gebriel M. Shamia

Abstract:

The Improved Generalized Diversity Index (IGDI) has been proposed as a tool that can be used to identify areas that have high conservation value and measure the ecological condition of an area. IGDI is based on the species relative abundances. This paper is concerned with particular attention is given to comparisons involving the MacArthur model of species abundances. The properties and performance of various species indices were assessed. Both IGDI and species richness increased with sampling area according to a power function. IGDI were also found to be acceptable ecological indicators of conditions and consistently outperformed coefficient of conservatism indices.

Keywords: Statistical ecology, MacArthur model, Functional Diversity.

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5906 Multi-Temporal Urban Land Cover Mapping Using Spectral Indices

Authors: Mst Ilme Faridatul, Bo Wu

Abstract:

Multi-temporal urban land cover mapping is of paramount importance for monitoring urban sprawl and managing the ecological environment. For diversified urban activities, it is challenging to map land covers in a complex urban environment. Spectral indices have proved to be effective for mapping urban land covers. To improve multi-temporal urban land cover classification and mapping, we evaluate the performance of three spectral indices, e.g. modified normalized difference bare-land index (MNDBI), tasseled cap water and vegetation index (TCWVI) and shadow index (ShDI). The MNDBI is developed to evaluate its performance of enhancing urban impervious areas by separating bare lands. A tasseled cap index, TCWVI is developed to evaluate its competence to detect vegetation and water simultaneously. The ShDI is developed to maximize the spectral difference between shadows of skyscrapers and water and enhance water detection. First, this paper presents a comparative analysis of three spectral indices using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM), Thematic Mapper (TM) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) data. Second, optimized thresholds of the spectral indices are imputed to classify land covers, and finally, their performance of enhancing multi-temporal urban land cover mapping is assessed. The results indicate that the spectral indices are competent to enhance multi-temporal urban land cover mapping and achieves an overall classification accuracy of 93-96%.

Keywords: Land cover, mapping, multi-temporal, spectral indices.

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5905 EEG Indices to Time-On-Task Effects and to a Workload Manipulation (Cueing)

Authors: A. T. Kamzanova, G. Matthews, A. M. Kustubayeva, S. M. Jakupov

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of a range of EEG indices to time-on-task effects and to a workload manipulation (cueing), during performance of a resource-limited vigilance task. Effects of task period and cueing on performance and subjective state response were consistent with previous vigilance studies and with resource theory. Two EEG indices – the Task Load Index (TLI) and global lower frequency (LF) alpha power – showed effects of task period and cueing similar to those seen with correct detections. Across four successive task periods, the TLI declined and LF alpha power increased. Cueing increased TLI and decreased LF alpha. Other indices – the Engagement Index (EI), frontal theta and upper frequency (UF) alpha failed to show these effects. However, EI and frontal theta were sensitive to interactive effects of task period and cueing, which may correspond to a stronger anxiety response to the uncued task.

Keywords: brain activity, EEG, task engagement, vigilance task.

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5904 Analysis of Creative City Indicators in Isfahan City, Iran

Authors: Reza Mokhtari Malek Abadi, Mohsen Saghaei, Fatima Iman

Abstract:

This paper investigates the indices of a creative city in Isfahan. Its main aim is to evaluate quantitative status of the creative city indices in Isfahan city, analyze the dispersion and distribution of these indices in Isfahan city. Concerning these, this study tries to analyze the creative city indices in fifteen area of Isfahan through secondary data, questionnaire, TOPSIS model, Shannon entropy and SPSS. Based on this, the fifteen areas of Isfahan city have been ranked with 12 factors of creative city indices. The results of studies show that fifteen areas of Isfahan city are not equally benefiting from creative indices and there is much difference between the areas of Isfahan city.

Keywords: Grading, creative city, creative city evaluation indicators, regional planning model.

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5903 Application of Neural Network for Contingency Ranking Based on Combination of Severity Indices

Authors: S. Jadid, S. Jalilzadeh

Abstract:

In this paper, an improved technique for contingency ranking using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed approach is based on multi-layer perceptrons trained by backpropagation to contingency analysis. Severity indices in dynamic stability assessment are presented. These indices are based on the concept of coherency and three dot products of the system variables. It is well known that some indices work better than others for a particular power system. This paper along with test results using several different systems, demonstrates that combination of indices with ANN provides better ranking than a single index. The presented results are obtained through the use of power system simulation (PSS/E) and MATLAB 6.5 software.

Keywords: composite indices, transient stability, neural network.

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5902 Drought Stress Indices in Some Silage Maize Cultivars

Authors: Ehsan Shahrabian, Ali Soleymani

Abstract:

Several yield-based stress indices have been developed that may be more applicable to work on drought tolerance. In this study, we investigate possibility of using stress susceptibility index (SSI), tolerance index (TOL), yield stability index (YSI), yield index (YI), stress tolerance index (STI), geometric mean productivity (GMP), harmonic mean (HARM), mean productivity (MP) to identify genotypic performance of some maize cultivars under normal and stressed condition. The results indicate that it was possible to identify superior genotypes for drought tolerance based on their stress indices and generally SSI indices which showed the lowest negative correlation with dry matter yield can be used as the best index for maize breeding programs to introduce drought tolerant hybrids. It was found that SC 647 showed the best behavior under drought stress condition based on TOL and SSI. A higher STI, GMP, and HARM values were attained for ko6. It can be suggested that ko6 should be cultivated in moderate stressful environment of Iran.

Keywords: Index, productivity, stress, susceptibility tolerance, yield.

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5901 Improving Protein-Protein Interaction Prediction by Using Encoding Strategies and Random Indices

Authors: Essam Al-Daoud

Abstract:

A New features are extracted and compared to improve the prediction of protein-protein interactions. The basic idea is to select and use the best set of features from the Tensor matrices that are produced by the frequency vectors of the protein sequences. Three set of features are compared, the first set is based on the indices that are the most common in the interacting proteins, the second set is based on the indices that tend to be common in the interacting and non-interacting proteins, and the third set is constructed by using random indices. Moreover, three encoding strategies are compared; that are based on the amino asides polarity, structure, and chemical properties. The experimental results indicate that the highest accuracy can be obtained by using random indices with chemical properties encoding strategy and support vector machine.

Keywords: protein-protein interactions, random indices, encoding strategies, support vector machine.

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5900 Reliability Evaluation of Distribution System Considering Distributed Generation

Authors: Raju Kaduru, Narsaiah Srinivas Gondlala

Abstract:

This paper presents an analytical approach for evaluating distribution system reliability indices in the presence of distributed generation. Modeling distributed generation and evaluation of distribution system reliability indices using the frequency duration technique. Using model implements and case studies are discussed. Results showed that location of DG and its effect in distribution reliability indices. In this respect, impact of DG on distribution system is investigated using the IEEE Roy Billinton test system (RBTS2) included feeder 1. Therefore, it will help to the distribution system planners in the DG resource placement.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, DG Location, Distribution System, Reliability Indices.

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5899 Comparative Study of Line Voltage Stability Indices for Voltage Collapse Forecasting in Power Transmission System

Authors: H. H. Goh, Q. S. Chua, S. W. Lee, B. C. Kok, K. C. Goh, K. T. K. Teo

Abstract:

At present, the evaluation of voltage stability assessment experiences sizeable anxiety in the safe operation of power systems. This is due to the complications of a strain power system. With the snowballing of power demand by the consumers and also the restricted amount of power sources, therefore, the system has to perform at its maximum proficiency. Consequently, the noteworthy to discover the maximum ability boundary prior to voltage collapse should be undertaken. A preliminary warning can be perceived to evade the interruption of power system’s capacity. The effectiveness of line voltage stability indices (LVSI) is differentiated in this paper. The main purpose of the indices used is to predict the proximity of voltage instability of the electric power system. On the other hand, the indices are also able to decide the weakest load buses which are close to voltage collapse in the power system. The line stability indices are assessed using the IEEE 14 bus test system to validate its practicability. Results demonstrated that the implemented indices are practically relevant in predicting the manifestation of voltage collapse in the system. Therefore, essential actions can be taken to dodge the incident from arising.

Keywords: Critical line, line outage, line voltage stability indices (LVSI), maximum loadability, voltage collapse, voltage instability, voltage stability analysis.

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5898 Applicability of Diatom-Based Water Quality Assessment Indices in Dari Stream, Isparta- Turkey

Authors: Hasan Kalyoncu, Burcu Şerbetci

Abstract:

Diatoms are an important group of aquatic ecosystems and diatom-based indices are increasingly becoming important tools for the assessment of ecological conditions in lotic systems. Although the studies are very limited about Turkish rivers, diatom indices were used for monitoring rivers in different basins. In the present study, we used OMNIDIA program for estimation of stream quality. Some indices have less sensitive (IDP, WAT, LOBO, GENRE, TID, CEE, PT), intermediate sensitivities (IDSE, DESCY, IPS, DI-CH, SLA, IDAP), the others higher sensitivities (SID, IBD, SHE, EPI-D). Among the investigated diatom communities, only a few taxa indicated alfa-mesosaprobity and polysaprobity. Most of the sites were characterized by a great relative contribution of eutraphent and tolerant ones as well as oligosaprobic and betamesosaprobic diatoms. In general, SID and IBD indices gave the best results. This study suggests that the structure of benthic diatom communities and diatom indices, especially SID, can be applied for monitoring rivers in Southern Turkey. 

Keywords: Diatom, Darı stream, OMNIDIA, Turkey, Water quality.

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5897 PI Controller for Automatic Generation Control Based on Performance Indices

Authors: Kalyan Chatterjee

Abstract:

The optimal design of PI controller for Automatic Generation Control in two area is presented in this paper. The concept of Dual mode control is applied in the PI controller, such that the proportional mode is made active when the rate of change of the error is sufficiently larger than a specified limit otherwise switched to the integral mode. A digital simulation is used in conjunction with the Hooke-Jeeve’s optimization technique to determine the optimum parameters (individual gain of proportional and integral controller) of the PI controller. Integrated Square of the Error (ISE), Integrated Time multiplied by Absolute Error(ITAE) , and Integrated Absolute Error(IAE) performance indices are considered to measure the appropriateness of the designed controller.  The proposed controller are tested for a two area single nonreheat thermal system considering the practical aspect of the problem such as Deadband and Generation Rate Constraint(GRC). Simulation results show that  dual mode with optimized values of the gains improved the control performance than the commonly used Variable Structure .

Keywords: Load Frequency Control, Area Control Error(ACE), Dual Mode PI Controller, Performance Index

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5896 Adjusted LOLE and EENS Indices for the Consideration of Load Excess Transfer in Power Systems Adequacy Studies

Authors: F. Vallée, J-F. Toubeau, Z. De Grève, J. Lobry

Abstract:

When evaluating the capacity of a generation park to cover the load in transmission systems, traditional Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) and Expected Energy not Served (EENS) indices can be used. If those indices allow computing the annual duration and severity of load non covering situations, they do not take into account the fact that the load excess is generally shifted from one penury state (hour or quarter of an hour) to the following one. In this paper, a sequential Monte Carlo framework is introduced in order to compute adjusted LOLE and EENS indices. Practically, those adapted indices permit to consider the effect of load excess transfer on the global adequacy of a generation park, providing thus a more accurate evaluation of this quantity.

Keywords: Expected Energy not Served, Loss of Load Expectation, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, wind generation.

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5895 The Use of Voltage Stability Indices and Proposed Instability Prediction to Coordinate with Protection Systems

Authors: R. Leelaruji, V. Knazkins

Abstract:

This paper proposes a methodology for mitigating the occurrence of cascading failure in stressed power systems. The methodology is essentially based on predicting voltage instability in the power system using a voltage stability index and then devising a corrective action in order to increase the voltage stability margin. The paper starts with a brief description of the cascading failure mechanism which is probable root cause of severe blackouts. Then, the voltage instability indices are introduced in order to evaluate stability limit. The aim of the analysis is to assure that the coordination of protection, by adopting load shedding scheme, capable of enhancing performance of the system after the major location of instability is determined. Finally, the proposed method to generate instability prediction is introduced.

Keywords: Blackouts, cascading failure, voltage stability indices, singular value decomposition, load shedding.

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5894 Wheat Yield Prediction through Agro Meteorological Indices for Ardebil District

Authors: Fariba Esfandiary, Ghafoor Aghaie, Ali Dolati Mehr

Abstract:

Wheat prediction was carried out using different meteorological variables together with agro meteorological indices in Ardebil district for the years 2004-2005 & 2005–2006. On the basis of correlation coefficients, standard error of estimate as well as relative deviation of predicted yield from actual yield using different statistical models, the best subset of agro meteorological indices were selected including daily minimum temperature (Tmin), accumulated difference of maximum & minimum temperatures (TD), growing degree days (GDD), accumulated water vapor pressure deficit (VPD), sunshine hours (SH) & potential evapotranspiration (PET). Yield prediction was done two months in advance before harvesting time which was coincide with commencement of reproductive stage of wheat (5th of June). It revealed that in the final statistical models, 83% of wheat yield variability was accounted for variation in above agro meteorological indices.

Keywords: Wheat yields prediction, agro meteorological indices, statistical models

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5893 Text-Mining Approach for Evaluation of Affective Management Practices

Authors: Masaaki Saito, Qin Tang, Hiroyuki Umemuro

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to propose a text mining approach to evaluate companies- practices on affective management. Affective management argues that it is critical to take stakeholders- affects into consideration during decision-making process, along with the traditional numerical and rational indices. CSR reports published by companies were collected as source information. Indices were proposed based on the frequency and collocation of words relevant to affective management concept using text mining approach to analyze the text information of CSR reports. In addition, the relationships between the results obtained using proposed indices and traditional indicators of business performance were investigated using correlation analysis. Those correlations were also compared between manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies. The results of this study revealed the possibility to evaluate affective management practices of companies based on publicly available text documents.

Keywords: Affective management, Affect, Stakeholder, Text mining.

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5892 Present and Future Climate Extreme Indices over Sinai Peninsula, Egypt

Authors: Mahmoud Roushdi, Hany Mostafa, Khaled Kheireldin

Abstract:

Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor are promising and important economic regions in Egypt due to the unique location and development opportunities. Thus, the climate change impacts should be assessed over the mentioned area. Accordingly, this paper aims to assess the climate extreme indices in through the last 35 year over Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor in addition to predict the climate extreme indices up to 2100. Present and future climate indices were analyzed with using different RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 from 2010 until 2100 for Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor. Furthermore, both CanESM and HadGEM2 global circulation models were used. The results indicate that the number of summer days is predicted to increase, on the other hand the frost days is predicted to decrease. Moreover, it is noted a slight positive trend for the percentile of wet and extremely days R95p and R99p for RCP4.5 and negative trend for RCP8.5.

Keywords: Climate change, extreme indices, RCP, Sinai Peninsula.

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5891 A Study of Islamic Stock Indices and Macroeconomic Variables

Authors: Mohammad Irfan

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship among the key macroeconomic variables and Islamic stock market in India. This study is based on the time series data of financial years 2009-2015 to explore the consistency of relationship between macroeconomic variables and Shariah Indices. The ADF (Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test Statistic) and PP (Phillips–Perron Test Statistic) tests are employed to check stationarity of the data. The study depicts the long run relationship between Shariah indices and macroeconomic variables by using the Johansen Co-integration test. BSE Shariah and Nifty Shariah have uni-direct Granger causality. The outcome of VECM is significantly confirming the applicability of best fitted model. Thus, Islamic stock indices are proficiently working for the development of Indian economy. It suggests that by keeping eyes on Islamic stock market which will be more interactive in the future with other macroeconomic variables.

Keywords: Indian shariah indices, macroeconomic variables, co-integration, Granger causality, Vector error correction model.

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5890 Evaluation of drought Tolerance Indices in Dryland Bread wheat Genotypes under Post-Anthesis drought Stress

Authors: Mokhtar Ghobadi , Mohammad-Eghbal Ghobadi, Danial Kahrizi, Alireza Zebarjadi, Mahdi Geravandi

Abstract:

Post-anthesis drought stress is the most important problem affecting wheat production in dryland fields, specially in Mediterranean regions. The main objective of this research was to evaluate drought tolerance indices in dryland wheat genotypes under post-anthesis drought stress. The research was including two different experiments. In each experiment, twenty dryland bread wheat genotypes were sown in a randomized complete blocks design (RCBD) with three replications. One of experiments belonged to rain-fed conditions (post-anthesis drought stress) and other experiment was under non-stress conditions (with supplemental irrigation). Different drought tolerance indices include Stress Tolerance (Tol), Mean Productivity (MP), Geometric Mean Productivity (GMP), Stress Susceptibility Index (SSI), Stress Tolerance Index (STI), Harmonic Mean (HAM), Yield Index (YI) and Yield Stability Index (YSI) were evaluate based on grain yield under rain-fed (Ys) and supplemental irrigation (Yp) environments. G10 and G12 were the most tolerant genotypes based on TOL and SSI. But, based on MP, GMP, STI, HAM and YI indices, G1 and G2 were selected. STI, GMP and MP indices had high correlation with grain yield under rain-fed and supplementary irrigation conditions and were recognized as appropriate indices to identify genotypes with high grain yield and low sensitivity to drought stress environments.

Keywords: Dryland wheat, Supplemental irrigation, Tolerance indices

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5889 Performance Assessment of Computational Gridon Weather Indices from HOAPS Data

Authors: Madhuri Bhavsar, Anupam K Singh, Shrikant Pradhan

Abstract:

Long term rainfall analysis and prediction is a challenging task especially in the modern world where the impact of global warming is creating complications in environmental issues. These factors which are data intensive require high performance computational modeling for accurate prediction. This research paper describes a prototype which is designed and developed on grid environment using a number of coupled software infrastructural building blocks. This grid enabled system provides the demanding computational power, efficiency, resources, user-friendly interface, secured job submission and high throughput. The results obtained using sequential execution and grid enabled execution shows that computational performance has enhanced among 36% to 75%, for decade of climate parameters. Large variation in performance can be attributed to varying degree of computational resources available for job execution. Grid Computing enables the dynamic runtime selection, sharing and aggregation of distributed and autonomous resources which plays an important role not only in business, but also in scientific implications and social surroundings. This research paper attempts to explore the grid enabled computing capabilities on weather indices from HOAPS data for climate impact modeling and change detection.

Keywords: Climate model, Computational Grid, GridApplication, Heterogeneous Grid

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5888 Detection of Linkages Between Extreme Flow Measures and Climate Indices

Authors: Mohammed Sharif, Donald Burn

Abstract:

Large scale climate signals and their teleconnections can influence hydro-meteorological variables on a local scale. Several extreme flow and timing measures, including high flow and low flow measures, from 62 hydrometric stations in Canada are investigated to detect possible linkages with several large scale climate indices. The streamflow data used in this study are derived from the Canadian Reference Hydrometric Basin Network and are characterized by relatively pristine and stable land-use conditions with a minimum of 40 years of record. A composite analysis approach was used to identify linkages between extreme flow and timing measures and climate indices. The approach involves determining the 10 highest and 10 lowest values of various climate indices from the data record. Extreme flow and timing measures for each station were examined for the years associated with the 10 largest values and the years associated with the 10 smallest values. In each case, a re-sampling approach was applied to determine if the 10 values of extreme flow measures differed significantly from the series mean. Results indicate that several stations are impacted by the large scale climate indices considered in this study. The results allow the determination of any relationship between stations that exhibit a statistically significant trend and stations for which the extreme measures exhibit a linkage with the climate indices.

Keywords: flood analysis, low-flow events, climate change, trend analysis, Canada

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5887 Measurement of Innovation Performance

Authors: M. Chobotová, Ž. Rylková

Abstract:

Time full of changes which is associated with globalization, tougher competition, changes in the structures of markets and economic downturn, that all force companies to think about their competitive advantages. These changes can bring the company a competitive advantage and that can help improve competitive position in the market. Policy of the European Union is focused on the fast growing innovative companies which quickly respond to market demands and consequently increase its competitiveness. To meet those objectives companies need the right conditions and support of their state.

Keywords: Innovation, performance, measurements metrics, indices.

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5886 Exploring the Challenges to Usage of Building and Construction Cost Indices in Ghana

Authors: J. J. Gyimah, E. Kissi, S. Osei-Tutu, C. D. Adobor, T. Adjei-Kumi, E. Osei-Tutu

Abstract:

Price fluctuation contract is imperative and of paramount essence in the construction industry as it provides adequate relief and cushioning for changes in the prices of input resources during construction. As a result, several methods have been devised to better help in arriving at fair recompense in the event of price changes. However, stakeholders often appear not to be satisfied with the existing methods of fluctuation evaluation, ostensibly because of the challenges associated with them. The aim of this study was to identify the challenges to usage of building construction cost indices in Ghana. Data were gathered from contractors and quantity surveying firms. The study utilized survey questionnaire approach to elicit responses from the contractors and the consultants. Data gathered were analyzed scientifically, using the Relative Importance Index (RII) to rank the problems associated with the existing methods. The findings revealed the following among others: late release of data; inadequate recovery of costs; and work items of interest not included in the published indices as the main challenges of the existing methods. Findings provided useful lessons for policy makers and practitioners in decision making towards the usage and improvement of available indices.

Keywords: Building construction cost indices, challenges, usage, Ghana.

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5885 Reliability Evaluation of Composite Electric Power System Based On Latin Hypercube Sampling

Authors: R. Ashok Bakkiyaraj, N. Kumarappan

Abstract:

This paper investigates the suitability of Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) for composite electric power system reliability analysis. Each sample generated in LHS is mapped into an equivalent system state and used for evaluating the annualized system and load point indices. DC loadflow based state evaluation model is solved for each sampled contingency state. The indices evaluated are loss of load probability, loss of load expectation, expected demand not served and expected energy not supplied. The application of the LHS is illustrated through case studies carried out using RBTS and IEEE-RTS test systems. Results obtained are compared with non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation and state enumeration analytical approaches. An error analysis is also carried out to check the LHS method’s ability to capture the distributions of the reliability indices. It is found that LHS approach estimates indices nearer to actual value and gives tighter bounds of indices than non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Composite power system, Latin Hypercube sampling, Monte Carlo simulation, Reliability evaluation, Variance analysis.

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5884 Comprehensive Regional Drought Assessment Index

Authors: A. Zeynolabedin, M. A. Olyaei, B. Ghiasi

Abstract:

Drought is an inevitable part of the earth’s climate. It occurs regularly with no clear warning and without recognizing borders. In addition, its impact is cumulative and not immediately discernible. Iran is located in a semi-arid region where droughts occur periodically as natural hazard. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are three well-known indices which describe drought severity; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. These indices take into account some factors such as precipitation, reservoir storage and discharge, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in determining drought severity. In this paper, first all three indices are calculated in Aharchay river watershed located in northwestern part of Iran in East Azarbaijan province. Next, based on two other important parameters which are groundwater level and solar radiation, two new indices are defined. Finally, considering all five aforementioned indices, a combined drought index (CDI) is presented and calculated for the region. This combined index is based on all the meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural features of the region. The results show that the most severe drought condition in Aharchay watershed happened in Jun, 2004. The result of this study can be used for monitoring drought and prepare for the drought mitigation planning.

Keywords: Drought, index variation, regional assessment, monitoring.

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5883 Measurement of Operational and Environmental Performance of the Coal-Fired Power Plants in India by Using Data Envelopment Analysis

Authors: Vijay Kumar Bajpai, Sudhir Kumar Singh

Abstract:

In this study, the performance analyses of the twenty five Coal-Fired Power Plants (CFPPs) used for electricity generation are carried out through various Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models. Three efficiency indices are defined and pursued. During the calculation of the operational performance, energy and non-energy variables are used as input, and net electricity produced is used as desired output (Model-1). CO2 emitted to the environment is used as the undesired output (Model-2) in the computation of the pure environmental performance while in Model-3 CO2 emissions is considered as detrimental input in the calculation of operational and environmental performance. Empirical results show that most of the plants are operating in increasing returns to scale region and Mettur plant is efficient one with regards to energy use and environment. The result also indicates that the undesirable output effect is insignificant in the research sample. The present study will provide clues to plant operators towards raising the operational and environmental performance of CFPPs.

Keywords: Coal fired power plants, environmental performance, data envelopment analysis, operational performance.

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5882 Performance of Heterogeneous Autoregressive Models of Realized Volatility: Evidence from U.S. Stock Market

Authors: Petr Seďa

Abstract:

This paper deals with heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility (HAR-RV models) on high-frequency data of stock indices in the USA. Its aim is to capture the behavior of three groups of market participants trading on a daily, weekly and monthly basis and assess their role in predicting the daily realized volatility. The benefits of this work lies mainly in the application of heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility on stock indices in the USA with a special aim to analyze an impact of the global financial crisis on applied models forecasting performance. We use three data sets, the first one from the period before the global financial crisis occurred in the years 2006-2007, the second one from the period when the global financial crisis fully hit the U.S. financial market in 2008-2009 years, and the last period was defined over 2010-2011 years. The model output indicates that estimated realized volatility in the market is very much determined by daily traders and in some cases excludes the impact of those market participants who trade on monthly basis.

Keywords: Global financial crisis, heterogeneous autoregressive model, in-sample forecast, realized volatility, U.S. stock market.

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5881 Loss Reduction and Reliability Improvement of Industrial Distribution System through Network Reconfiguration

Authors: Ei Ei Phyu, Kyaw Myo Lin, Thin Thin Moe

Abstract:

The paper presents an approach to improve the reliability and reduce line losses of practical distribution system applying network reconfiguration. The change of the topology redirects the power flow within the distribution network to obtain better performance of the system. Practical distribution network (Pyigyitagon Industrial Zone (I)) is used as the case study network. The detailed calculations of the reliability indices are done by using analytical method and power flow calculation is performed by Newton-Rephason solver. The comparison of various network reconfiguration techniques are described with respect to power loss and reliability index levels. Finally, the optimal reconfigured network is selected among difference cases based on the two factors: the most reliable network and the least loss minimization.

Keywords: Distribution system reliability, loss reduction, network reconfiguration, reliability enhancement, reliability indices.

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