Search results for: 24 hour forecasting

Authors: Ying Shang, Chencheng Wang

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The wind field is the main driving factor for the spread of forest fires. For the simulation results of forest fire spread to be more accurate, it is necessary to obtain more detailed wind field data. Therefore, this paper studied the mountainous fine wind field simulation method coupled with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) to realize the numerical simulation of the wind field in a mountainous area with a scale of 30 m and a small measurement error. Local topographical changes have an important impact on the wind field. Based on the Rothermel fire spread model, a forest fire in Idaho in the western United States was simulated. The historical data proved that the simulation results had a good accuracy. They showed that the fire spread rate will decrease rapidly with time and then reach a steady state. After reaching a steady state, the fire spread growth area will not only be affected by the slope, but will also show a significant quadratic linear positive correlation with the wind speed change.

Keywords: Wind field, numerical simulation, forest fire spread, fire behavior model, complex terrain.

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Authors: Sanjoy Mukherjee

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Discussions on concepts of Single Axis Tracker (SAT) are becoming more and more apt for developing countries like India not just as an advancement in racking technology but due to the utmost necessity of reaching at the lowest Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) targets. With this increasing competition and significant fall in feed-in tariffs of solar PV projects, developers are under constant pressure to secure investment for their projects and eventually earn profits from them. Moreover, being the second largest populated country, India suffers from scarcity of land because of higher average population density. So, to mitigate the risk of this dual edged sword with reducing trend of unit (kWh) cost at one side and utilization of land on the other, tracking evolved as the call of the hour. Therefore, the prime objectives of this paper are not only to showcase how STT proves to be an effective mechanism to get more gain in Global Incidence in collector plane (G_inc) with respect to traditional mounting systems but also to introduce Seasonally Tilted Tracker (STT) technology as a possible option for high latitude locations.

Keywords: Tracking system, grid-connected PV systems, cost reduction.

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Authors: Rajesh Kumar, Roopali Dogra, Puneet Aggarwal

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In the era of technological advancement, use of computer technology has become inevitable. Hence it has become the need of the hour to integrate software methods in engineering curriculum as a part to boost pedagogy techniques. Simulations software is a great help to graduates of disciplines such as electrical engineering. Since electrical engineering deals with high voltages and heavy instruments, extra care must be taken while operating with them. The viable solution would be to have appropriate control. The appropriate control could be well designed if engineers have knowledge of kind of waveforms associated with the system. Though these waveforms can be plotted manually, but it consumes a lot of time. Hence aid of simulation helps to understand steady state of system and resulting in better performance. In this paper computer, aided teaching of transformer is carried out using MATLAB/Simulink. The test carried out on a transformer includes open circuit test and short circuit respectively. The respective parameters of transformer are then calculated using the values obtained from open circuit and short circuit test respectively using Simulink.

Keywords: Computer aided teaching, transformer, open circuit test, short circuit test, Simulink.

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Authors: J. Uka, B. McKay, T. Minton, O. Adole, R. Lewis, S. J. Glanvill, L. Anguilano

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Effective heat treatment conditions to obtain maximum aluminium swarf recycling are investigated in this work. Aluminium swarf briquettes underwent treatments at different temperatures and cooling times to investigate the improvements obtained in the recovery of aluminium metal. The main issue for the recovery of the metal from swarfs is to overcome the constraints due to the oxide layers present in high concentration in the swarfs since they have a high surface area. Briquettes supplied by Renishaw were heat treated at 650, 700, 750, 800 and 850 ℃ for 1-hour and then cooled at 2.3, 3.5 and 5 ℃/min. The resulting material was analysed using SEM EDX to observe the oxygen diffusion and aluminium coalescence at the boundary between adjacent swarfs. Preliminary results show that, swarf needs to be heat treated at a temperature of 850 ℃ and cooled down slowly at 2.3 ℃/min to have thin and discontinuous alumina layers between the adjacent swarf and consequently allowing aluminium coalescence. This has the potential to save energy and provide maximum financial profit in preparation of swarf briquettes for recycling.

Keywords: Aluminium, swarf, oxide layers, recycle, reuse.

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Authors: D.O. Omondi, L.O.A. Othuon, G.M. Mbagaya

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The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of physical activity and dietary fat intake on Body Mass Index (BMI) of lecturers within a higher learning institutionalized setting. The study adopted a Cross-sectional Correlational Design and included 120 lecturers selected proportionately by simple random sampling techniques from a population of 600 lecturers. Data was collected using questionnaires, which had sections including physical activity checklist adopted from the international physical activity questionnaire (IPAQ), 24-hour food recall, anthropometric measurements mainly weight and height. Analysis involved the use of bivariate correlations and linear regression. A significant inverse association was registered between BMI and duration (in minutes) spent doing moderate intense physical activity per day (r=-0.322, p<0.01). Physical activity also predicted BMI (r2=0.096, F=13.616, β=-3.22, t=-3.69, n=120, P<0.01). However, the association between Body Mass Index and dietary fat was not significant (r=0.038, p>0.05). Physical activity emerged as a more powerful determinant of BMI compared to dietary fat intake.

Keywords: Physical activity, dietary fat intake, Body MassIndex, Kenya.

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Authors: Yasaman Tohidi, Shidvash Vakilipour, Saeed Ebadi Tavallaee, Shahin Vakilipoor Takaloo, Hossein Amiri

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The numerical modeling is performed to study the effects of N₂ addition to the fuel stream on the flame structure and temperature distribution of methane-air swirl diffusion flames with different swirl intensities. The Open source Field Operation and Manipulation (OpenFOAM) has been utilized as the computational tool. Flamelet approach along with modified k-ε model is employed to model the flame characteristics.  The results indicate that the presence of N₂ in the fuel stream leads to the flame temperature reduction. By increasing of swirl intensity, the flame structure changes significantly. The flame has a conical shape in low swirl intensity; however, it has an hour glass-shape with a shorter length in high swirl intensity. The effects of N₂ dilution decrease the flame length in all swirl intensities; however, the rate of reduction is more noticeable in low swirl intensity.

Keywords: Swirl diffusion flame, N2 dilution, OpenFOAM, Swirl intensity.

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Authors: Petr Seďa

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This paper deals with heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility (HAR-RV models) on high-frequency data of stock indices in the USA. Its aim is to capture the behavior of three groups of market participants trading on a daily, weekly and monthly basis and assess their role in predicting the daily realized volatility. The benefits of this work lies mainly in the application of heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility on stock indices in the USA with a special aim to analyze an impact of the global financial crisis on applied models forecasting performance. We use three data sets, the first one from the period before the global financial crisis occurred in the years 2006-2007, the second one from the period when the global financial crisis fully hit the U.S. financial market in 2008-2009 years, and the last period was defined over 2010-2011 years. The model output indicates that estimated realized volatility in the market is very much determined by daily traders and in some cases excludes the impact of those market participants who trade on monthly basis.

Keywords: Global financial crisis, heterogeneous autoregressive model, in-sample forecast, realized volatility, U.S. stock market.

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Authors: Mohammed H. Rady, Mohd Sukri Mustapa, S Shamsudin, M. A. Lajis, A. Wagiman

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The present study is aimed at investigating microhardness and density of aluminium alloy chips when subjected to various settings of preheating temperature and preheating time. Three values of preheating temperature were taken as 450 °C, 500 °C, and 550 °C. On the other hand, three values of preheating time were chosen (1, 2, 3) hours. The influences of the process parameters (preheating temperature and time) were analyzed using Design of Experiments (DOE) approach whereby full factorial design with center point analysis was adopted. The total runs were 11 and they comprise of two factors of full factorial design with 3 center points. The responses were microhardness and density. The results showed that the density and microhardness increased with decreasing the preheating temperature. The results also found that the preheating temperature is more important to be controlled rather than the preheating time in microhardness analysis while both the preheating temperature and preheating time are important in density analysis. It can be concluded that setting temperature at 450 °C for 1 hour resulted in the optimum responses.

Keywords: AA6061, density, DOE, hot extrusion, microhardness.

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Authors: M. R. Mustafa, M. H. Isa, R. B. Rezaur

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The use of artificial neural network (ANN) modeling for prediction and forecasting variables in water resources engineering are being increasing rapidly. Infrastructural applications of ANN in terms of selection of inputs, architecture of networks, training algorithms, and selection of training parameters in different types of neural networks used in water resources engineering have been reported. ANN modeling conducted for water resources engineering variables (river sediment and discharge) published in high impact journals since 2002 to 2011 have been examined and presented in this review. ANN is a vigorous technique to develop immense relationship between the input and output variables, and able to extract complex behavior between the water resources variables such as river sediment and discharge. It can produce robust prediction results for many of the water resources engineering problems by appropriate learning from a set of examples. It is important to have a good understanding of the input and output variables from a statistical analysis of the data before network modeling, which can facilitate to design an efficient network. An appropriate training based ANN model is able to adopt the physical understanding between the variables and may generate more effective results than conventional prediction techniques.

Keywords: ANN, discharge, modeling, prediction, sediment,

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Authors: Amir Gandomkar

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The development incompatible with environment cannot be sustainable. Using renewable energy sources such as solar energy, geothermal energy and wind energy can make sustainable development in a region. Iran has a lot of renewable and nonrenewable energy resources. Since Iran has a special geographic position, it has lot of solar and wind energy resources. Both solar and wind energy are free, renewable and adaptable with environment. The study of 10 year wind data in Iranian South coastal and Islands synoptic stations shows that the production of wind power electricity and water pumping is possible in this region. In this research, we studied the local and temporal distribution of wind using three – hour statistics of windspeed in Iranian South coastal and Islands synoptic stations. This research shows that the production of wind power electricity is possible in this region all the year.

Keywords: Wind energy, wind regime, wind electricity, synoptic station.

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Authors: A. Ashjaran, A. Rashidi, R. Ghazi-Saeidi

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Protective clothing limits heat transfer and hampers task performance due to the increased weight. Militarism protective clothing enables humans to operate in adverse environments. In the selection and evaluation of militarism protective clothing attention should be given to heat strain, ergonomic and fit issues next to the actual protection it offers. Fifty Male healthy subjects participated in the study. The subjects were dressed in shorts, T-shirts, socks, sneakers and four deferent kinds of militarism protective clothing such as CS, CSB, CS with NBC protection and CS with NBC- protection added. Ergonomically and psychological strains of every four cloths were investigated on subjects by walking on a treadmill (7km/hour) with a 19.7 kg backpack. As a result of these tests were showed that, the highest heart rate was found wearing the NBC-protection added outfit, the highest temperatures were observed wearing NBCprotection added, followed by respectively CS with NBC protection, CSB and CS and the highest value for thermal comfort (implying worst thermal comfort) was observed wearing NBC-protection added.

Keywords: Militarist protective clothing, Ergonomic, Heat strain, Thermal comfort

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh river, log pearson type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares.

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Authors: Amir Gandomkar

Abstract:

Kish Islands in South of Iran is located in coastal water near Hormozgan Province. Based on the wind 3-hour statistics in Kish station, the mean annual windspeed in this Island is 8.6 knot (4.3 m/s). The maximum windspeed recorded in this stations 47 knot (23.5 m/s). In 45.7 percent of recorded times, windspeed has been Zero or less than 8 knot which is not suitable to use the wind energy. But in 54.3 percent of recorded times, windspeed has been more than 8 knot and suitable to use wind energy to run turbines. In 40.2 percent of recorded times, windspeed has been between 8 to 16 knot, in 13 percent of times between 16 to 24 knot and in 1 percent of times it has been higher than 24 knot. In this station, the direction of winds higher than 8 is west and wind direction in Kish station is stable in most times of the year.With regard to high – speed and stable direction winds during the year and also shallow coasts near this is land, it is possible to build offshore wind farms near Kish Island and utilize wind energy produce the electricity required in this Island during most of the year.

Keywords: Kish Island, Wind energy, Offshore wind farm, Windspeed, Wind direction

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Authors: Morten Stigaard Laursen, Rasmus Nyholm Jørgensen, Mads Dyrmann, Robert Poulsen

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For the past three years, the Danish project, RoboWeedSupport, has sought to bridge the gap between the potential herbicide savings using a decision support system and the required weed inspections. In order to automate the weed inspections it is desired to generate a map of the weed species present within the field, to generate the map images must be captured with samples covering the field. This paper investigates the economical cost of performing this data collection based on a camera system mounted on a all-terain vehicle (ATV) able to drive and collect data at up to 50 km/h while still maintaining a image quality sufficient for identifying newly emerged grass weeds. The economical estimates are based on approximately 100 hectares recorded at three different locations in Denmark. With an average image density of 99 images per hectare the ATV had an capacity of 28 ha per hour, which is estimated to cost 6.6 EUR/ha. Alternatively relying on a boom solution for an existing tracktor it was estimated that a cost of 2.4 EUR/ha is obtainable under equal conditions.

Keywords: Weed mapping, integrated weed management, weed recognition.

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Authors: E. Moroydor Derun, A. S. Kipcak, A. Kaplan, S. Piskin

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Magnesium wastes are produced by many industrial activities. This waste problem is becoming a future problem for the world. Magnesium borates have many advantages such as; high corrosion resistance, heat resistance, high coefficient of elasticity and can also be used in the production of material against radiation. Addition, magnesium borates have great potential in sectors including ceramic and detergents industry and superconducting materials. In this study, using the starting materials of waste magnesium and H3BO3 the hydrothermal method was applied at a moderate temperature of 70oC. Several mole ratios of waste magnesium to H3BO3 are selected as; 1:2, 1:4, 1:6, 1:8, 1:10. Reaction time was determined as 1 hour. After the synthesis, X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) techniques are applied to products. As a result the forms of mcallisterite “Mg2(B6O7(OH)6)2.9(H2O)”, admontite “MgO(B2O3)3.7(H2O)” and magnesium boron hydrate (MgO(B2O3)3.6(H2O)” are obtained. 

Keywords: Hydrothermal synthesis, magnesium borates, waste magnesium.

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Authors: A. R. Rashid, A. S. Siti, F. R. Siti, A. R. Reena, H. S. S. Sharifah, F. Z. Nurul, W. A. Nazni

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This study was conducted to examine the effects of ketum extract on development of Chrysomya rufifacies and to analyze the presence of mitragynine in the larvae samples. 110 newly emerged first instar larvae of C. rufifacies were introduced on ketum extract-mixed cow liver at doses of 0, 20, 40 and 60g. Blowfly development rate was determined with 12 hour intervals and mitragynine in larvae was extracted and quantitated. C. rufifacies in control group took about 192 hours to complete their development from first instar larvae to adult blowfly; meanwhile blowfly form from the highest dose of ketum was 264 hours. Mitragynine was detected in all groups of treatment, except for control. In conclusion, the presence of mitragynine in C. rufifacies is affected in delaying development rates of the blowfly for up to 62 hours or 3 days. Chemical analysis of mitragynine from larvae samples showed that this alkaloid present in all specimens analyzed. 

Keywords: Chrysomya rufifacies, Ketum, Mitragynine, Postmortem Interval (PMI).

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Authors: Seyed Azizollah Ghotb, Mohammad Chamani, Elmira Abdollahzadeh Esmaeili, Farhad Foroudi

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the objective of this study is to measure the levels of cellulas activity of ostrich GI microorganisms, and comparing it with the levels of cellulas activity of rumen-s microorganisms, and also to estimate the probability of increasing enzyme activity with injecting different dosages (30%, 50% and 70%) of pure anaerobic goat rumen fungi. The experiment was conducted in laboratory and under a complete anaerobic condition (in vitro condition). 40 ml of “CaldWell" medium and 1.4g wheat straw were placed in incubator for an hour. The cellulase activity of ostrich microorganisms was compared with other treatments, and then different dosages (30%, 50% and 70%) of pure anaerobic goat rumen fungi were injected to ostrich microorganism-s media. Due to the results, cattle and goat with 2.13 and 2.08 I.U (international units) respectively showed the highest activity and ostrich with 0.91 (I.U) had the lowest cellulose activity (p < 0.05). Injecting 30% and 50% of anaerobic fungi had no significant incensement in enzyme activity, but with injecting 70% of rumen fungi to ostrich microorganisms culture a significant increase was observed 1.48 I.U. (p < 0.05).

Keywords: Cellulase enzyme, Microorganisms, Ostrich, Ruminants

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Authors: D. Zabala, Y. Cárdenas, G. Núñez

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In this work the numerical simulation of transient heat transfer in a cylindrical probe is done. An experiment was conducted introducing a steel cylinder in a heating chamber and registering its surface temperature along the time during one hour. In parallel, a mathematical model was solved for one dimension transient heat transfer in cylindrical coordinates, considering the boundary conditions of the test. The model was solved using finite difference method, because the thermal conductivity in the cylindrical steel bar and the convection heat transfer coefficient used in the model are considered temperature dependant functions, and both conditions prevent the use of the analytical solution. The comparison between theoretical and experimental results showed the average deviation is below 2%. It was concluded that numerical methods are useful in order to solve engineering complex problems. For constant k and h, the experimental methodology used here can be used as a tool for teaching heat transfer in mechanical engineering, using mathematical simplified models with analytical solutions.

Keywords: Heat transfer experiment, thermal conductivity, finite difference, engineering education.

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Authors: Olga Tkacheva, Pavel Arkhipov, Alexey Rudenko, Yurii Zaikov

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The aluminum electrolysis process in the conventional cryolite-alumina electrolyte with cryolite ratio of 2.7 was carried out at an initial temperature of 970 °C and the anode current density of 0.5 A/cm² in a 15A lab-scale cell in order to study the formation of the side ledge during electrolysis and the alumina distribution between electrolyte and side ledge. The alumina contained 35.97% α-phase and 64.03% γ-phase with the particles size in the range of 10-120 μm. The cryolite ratio and the alumina concentration were determined in molten electrolyte during electrolysis and in frozen bath after electrolysis. The side ledge in the electrolysis cell was formed only by the 13^th hour of electrolysis. With a slight temperature decrease a significant increase in the side ledge thickness was observed. The basic components of the side ledge obtained by the XRD phase analysis were Na₃AlF₆, Na₅Al₃F₁₄, Al₂O₃, and NaF^.5CaF₂^.AlF₃. As in the industrial cell, the increased alumina concentration in the side ledge formed on the cell walls and at the ledge-electrolyte-aluminum three-phase boundary during aluminum electrolysis in the lab cell was found (FTP No 05.604.21.0239, IN RFMEFI60419X0239).

Keywords: Alumina, alumina distribution, aluminum electrolyzer, cryolite-alumina electrolyte, side ledge.

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Authors: E. Danso-Boateng

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The effects of enzyme action and heat pretreatment on oil extraction yield from sunflower kernels were analysed using hexane extraction with Soxhlet, and aqueous extraction with incubator shaker. Ground kernels of raw and heat treated kernels, each with and without Viscozyme treatment were used. Microscopic images of the kernels were taken to analyse the visible effects of each treatment on the cotyledon cell structure of the kernels. Heat pretreated kernels before both extraction processes produced enhanced oil extraction yields than the control, with steam explosion the most efficient. In hexane extraction, applying a combination of steam explosion and Viscozyme treatments to the kernels before the extraction gave the maximum oil extractable in 1 hour; while for aqueous extraction, raw kernels treated with Viscozyme gave the highest oil extraction yield. Remarkable cotyledon cell disruption was evident in kernels treated with Viscozyme; whereas steam explosion and conventional heat treated kernels had similar effects.

Keywords: Enzyme-assisted aqueous and hexane extraction, heatpretreatment, sunflower cotyledon structure, sunflower oil extraction

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Authors: A. Kablan

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The prediction of financial time series is a very complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed. Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input and has increased the overall performance of the system.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference system, High Frequency Trading, Intraday Seasonality Observation Model.

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Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

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In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.

Keywords: ARIMA, auto correlation, Bayesian network, forecasting models, life cycle, partial correlation, renewable energy, SARIMA, solar energy.

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Authors: Chien-Jen Liu, Shu Ching Yang

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Using the technology acceptance model (TAM), this study examined the external variables of technological complexity (TC) to acquire a better understanding of the factors that influence the acceptance of computer application courses by learners at Active Aging Universities. After the learners in this study had completed a 27-hour Facebook course, 44 learners responded to a modified TAM survey. Data were collected to examine the path relationships among the variables that influence the acceptance of Facebook-mediated community learning. The partial least squares (PLS) method was used to test the measurement and the structural model. The study results demonstrated that attitudes toward Facebook use directly influence behavioral intentions (BI) with respect to Facebook use, evincing a high prediction rate of 58.3%. In addition to the perceived usefulness (PU) and perceived ease of use (PEOU) measures that are proposed in the TAM, other external variables, such as TC, also indirectly influence BI. These four variables can explain 88% of the variance in BI and demonstrate a high level of predictive ability. Finally, limitations of this investigation and implications for further research are discussed.

Keywords: Technology acceptance model (TAM), technological complexity, partial least squares (PLS), perceived usefulness.

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Authors: Diah Tri Widayati, Sunendar, Kresno Suharto, Pudji Asuti, Aris Junaid

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Eight Etawah cross bred does were divided into two groups based on body condition score (BCS). Group I (BSC 2, body weight 25-30 kg; n = 4), and Group II (BSC 3, body weight, 35-40 kg, n=4). All does received intravaginal controlled internal drug release devices (CIDR) for 10 days, and a prostaglandin F2α at 48 h before CIDR removal. Estrus detection was carried out using vasectomized buck. Vaginal epithelium was taken to determine estrus cycle. Blood samples were taken every 3-6 hours, started from moment of CIDR removal until the end of estrus. The results showed vaginal histological indicated estrus occurred at the hours of 25 to 60 and 30 to 70 post CIDR removal in BCS 2 and 3, respectively. Progesterone peak of BCS 2 and BCS 3 were 0.18±0.31 and 0.48±0.31 ng/mL on the hour 0 post CIDR removal. Estradiol -17ß peak of each group was 53.25±35.08 and 89.91±92.84 pg/mL at 48 post CIDR removal. LH surge only occurred on BCS 3 groups, the LH concentrations were 9.9± 9.1; 4.5± 4.0; and 18.2± 9.1 ng/mL at 45, 48 and 51 hours post CIDR removal, respectively. It was concluded that the BCS had effects on vaginal histological changes and LH surge.

Keywords: Estrus synchronization, Vaginal histological changes, Progesterone, Estradiol -17ß , LH

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Authors: Jyh-Cherng Chen, Yu-Zen Lin, Wei-Zhi Chen

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Torrefaction is one of waste to energy (WTE) technologies developing in Taiwan recently, which can reduce the moisture and impuritiesand increase the energy density of biowaste effectively.To understand the torrefaction characteristics of different biowaste and the influences of different torrefaction conditions, four typical biowaste were selected to carry out the torrefaction experiments. The physical and chemical properties of different biowaste prior to and after torrefaction were analyzed and compared. Experimental results show that the contents of elemental carbon and caloric value of the four biowaste were significantly increased after torrefaction. The increase of combustible and caloric value in bamboo was the greatest among the four biowaste. The caloric value of bamboo can be increased from 1526 kcal/kg to 6104 kcal/kg after 300^oC and 1 hour torrefaction. The caloric valueof torrefied bamboo was almost four times as the original. The increase of elemental carbon content in wood was the greatest (from 41.03% to 75.24%), and the next was bamboo (from 47.07% to 74.63%). The major parameters which affected the caloric value of torrefied biowaste followed the sequence of biowaste kinds, torrefaction time, and torrefaction temperature. The optimal torrefaction conditions of the experiments were bamboo torrefied at 300^oC for 3 hours, and the corresponding caloric value of torrefied bamboo was 5953 kcal/kg. This caloric value is similar to that of brown coal or bituminous coal.

Keywords: Torrefaction, waste to energy, calorie, biofuel.

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

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Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study, climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One of models (Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and input parameters to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 t0 105 cm. Furthermore, the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: Climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, artificial neural network, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Abdelrasoul, Khalid Ahmed Elrabie

Abstract:

The study was conducted on Sahiwal cattle bulls maintained at the Artificial Breeding Complex, NDRI, Karnal, Hayana, India, to determine the effect of exercise on the sexual behavior and semen quality. Fourteen Sahiwal bulls were classified into two groups of seven each. Group-1, bulls were exercised by walking in a bull exerciser once a week one hour before semen collection, whereas bulls in group-2 were exercised daily. Sexual behavior and semen quality traits studied were: Reaction time (RT), Dismounting time (DMT), Total time taken in mounts (TTTM), Flehmen response (FR), Erection Score (ES), Protrusion Score (PS), Intensity of thrust (ITS), Temperament Score (TS), Libido Score (LS), Semen volume, Physical appearance, Mass activity, Initial progressive motility, Non-eosinophilic spermatozoa count (NESC) and post thaw motility percent. Data were analyzed by least squares technique. Group-2 showed significantly (p < 0.01) higher value in RT (sec), DMT (sec), TTTM (sec), ES, PS, ITS, LS, semen volume, semen color density and mass activity.

Keywords: Exercise, Sahiwal bulls, semen quality, sexual behavior.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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Authors: Nasrin Bakhshizadeh, Ashkan Forootan

Abstract:

A major problem that affects the quality control of polymer in the industrial polymerization is the lack of suitable on-line measurement tools to evaluate the properties of the polymer such as melt and density indices. Controlling the polymerization in ordinary method is performed manually by taking samples, measuring the quality of polymer in the lab and registry of results. This method is highly time consuming and leads to producing large number of incompatible products. An online application for estimating melt index and density proposed in this study is a neural network based on the input-output data of the polyethylene production plant. Temperature, the level of reactors' bed, the intensity of ethylene mass flow, hydrogen and butene-1, the molar concentration of ethylene, hydrogen and butene-1 are used for the process to establish the neural model. The neural network is taught based on the actual operational data and back-propagation and Levenberg-Marquart techniques. The simulated results indicate that the neural network process model established with three layers (one hidden layer) for forecasting the density and the four layers for the melt index is able to successfully predict those quality properties.

Keywords: Polyethylene, polymerization, density, melt index, neural network.

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Authors: Danae Venieri, Christos Theodoropoulos, Maria Lagkadinou, Joan Iliopoulou-Georgudaki

Abstract:

Changes in the sensory, chemical and microbiological quality of the Mediterranean hake during post-catch handling and distribution were investigated. 115 fish samples were seasonally received during three stages of the transfer route from the sea to the consumer and two storage methods were recorded, seawater and ice storage. Microbiological evaluation revealed higher status for the ice stored samples regarding heterotrophic bacteria (2.68 log cfu/g and 1.92 log cfu/g at 22oC and 37°C respectively) and psychrotrophic counts (3.20 log cfu/g), with statistically significant differences among storage methods. Sensory evaluation also revealed higher status for the ice stored samples with a mean quality index of 0.17 and a spoilage time estimated at 30 hours, in contrast to seawater storage, which varied from 0.28 to 0.3, and a 14-hour estimated spoilage. Detected pathogens were identified mainly in the seawater stored samples, posing questions on the quality of the product reaching the seafood markets.

Keywords: Merluccius merluccius, Microbiological quality, Psychrotrophic bacteria, Sensory evaluation.

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