Search results for: Information Model

Authors: Zhizhong Jiang, Craig Comstock

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The past decade has seen enormous growth in the amount of software produced. However, given the ever increasing complexity of the software being developed and the concomitant rise in the typical project size, managers are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of issues that influence the productivity levels of the project teams involved. By analyzing the latest release of ISBSG data repository, we report on the factors found to significantly influence the productivity among which average team size and language type are the two most essential ones. Building on this we present an original model for evaluating the potential productivity during the project planning stage.

Keywords: ISBSG, Linear Model, Productivity, SoftwareEngineering.

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Authors: M. Abdulkadir, V. Hernandez-Perez

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The characteristics of fluid flow and phase separation in an oil-water separator were numerically analysed as part of the work presented herein. Simulations were performed for different velocities and droplet diameters, and the way this parameters can influence the separator geometry was studied. The simulations were carried out using the software package Fluent 6.2, which is designed for numerical simulation of fluid flow and mass transfer. The model consisted of a cylindrical horizontal separator. A tetrahedral mesh was employed in the computational domain. The condition of two-phase flow was simulated with the two-fluid model, taking into consideration turbulence effects using the k-ε model. The results showed that there is a strong dependency of phase separation on mixture velocity and droplet diameter. An increase in mixture velocity will bring about a slow down in phase separation and as a consequence will require a weir of greater height. An increase in droplet diameter will produce a better phase separation. The simulations are in agreement with results reported in literature and show that CFD can be a useful tool in studying a horizontal oilwater separator.

Keywords: CFD, droplet diameter, mixture velocity

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Authors: Juan Portoviejo Brito, Daniel Icaza Alvarez, Christian Castro Samaniego

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In this article, we present the modeling, simulations, and energy conversion analysis of the solar-wind system for the Quingeo Heritage Center in Ecuador. A numerical model was constructed based on the 19 equations, it was coded in MATLAB R2017a, and the results were compared with the experimental data of the site. The model is built with the purpose of using it as a computer development for the optimization of resources and designs of hybrid systems in the Parish of Quingeo and its surroundings. The model obtained a fairly similar pattern compared to the data and curves obtained in the field experimentally and detailed in manuscript. It is important to indicate that this analysis has been carried out so that in the near future one or two of these power generation systems can be exploited in a massive way according to the budget assigned by the Parish GAD of Quingeo or other national or international organizations with the purpose of preserving this unique colonial helmet in Ecuador.

Keywords: Hybrid system, wind turbine, modeling, simulation, Smart Grid, Quingeo Azuay Ecuador.

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Authors: V. Vassiliou, M. Charalambides, M. Menicou

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Fish-feed is a major cost component of operating expenses for any aquaculture farm. Due to soaring prices of fish-feed ingredients, the need for better feeding schedule management has become imperative. On such factor that influences the utilization rate of fish-feed are sea currents. Up to now, practical monitoring of fishfeed loss due to sea currents is not exercised. This paper gives a description of an economic methodology that aims at quantifying the amount of fish-feed lost due to sea currents and draws on data from a Mediterranean aquaculture farm to formulate the associated model.

Keywords: Aquaculture, economic model, fish-feed loss, sea currents.

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Authors: Schehrazad Selmane

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We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly-observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.

Keywords: Deterministic model, reproduction number, stability, tuberculosis.

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Authors: Chenxue Yang, Mao Ye, Zijian Liu, Tao Li, Jiao Bao

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Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a useful computational method to find basis information of multivariate nonnegative data. A popular approach to solve the NMF problem is the multiplicative update (MU) algorithm. But, it has some defects. So the columnwisely alternating gradient (cAG) algorithm was proposed. In this paper, we analyze convergence of the cAG algorithm and show advantages over the MU algorithm. The stability of the equilibrium point is used to prove the convergence of the cAG algorithm. A classic model is used to obtain the equilibrium point and the invariant sets are constructed to guarantee the integrity of the stability. Finally, the convergence conditions of the cAG algorithm are obtained, which help reducing the evaluation time and is confirmed in the experiments. By using the same method, the MU algorithm has zero divisor and is convergent at zero has been verified. In addition, the convergence conditions of the MU algorithm at zero are similar to that of the cAG algorithm at non-zero. However, it is meaningless to discuss the convergence at zero, which is not always the result that we want for NMF. Thus, we theoretically illustrate the advantages of the cAG algorithm.

Keywords: Non-negative matrix factorizations, convergence, cAG algorithm, equilibrium point, stability.

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Authors: Samson Henry Dogo, Allan Clark, Elena Kulinskaya

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The objective of meta-analysis is to combine results from several independent studies in order to create generalization and provide evidence base for decision making. But recent studies show that the magnitude of effect size estimates reported in many areas of research significantly changed over time and this can impair the results and conclusions of meta-analysis. A number of sequential methods have been proposed for monitoring the effect size estimates in meta-analysis. However they are based on statistical theory applicable only to fixed effect model (FEM) of meta-analysis. For random-effects model (REM), the analysis incorporates the heterogeneity variance, τ 2 and its estimation create complications. In this paper we study the use of a truncated CUSUM-type test with asymptotically valid critical values for sequential monitoring in REM. Simulation results show that the test does not control the Type I error well, and is not recommended. Further work required to derive an appropriate test in this important area of applications.

Keywords: Meta-analysis, random-effects model, sequential testing, temporal changes in effect sizes.

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Authors: Liming Chen, Baoxin Xiu, Zhaoyun Ding, Bin Liu, Xianqiang Zhu

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In the era of big data, public investors are faced with more complicated information related to investment decisions than ever before. To survive in the fierce competition, it has become increasingly urgent for investors to combine multi-source knowledge and evaluate the companies’ true value efficiently. For this, a rule-based ontology reasoning method is proposed to support steel companies’ value assessment. Considering the delay in financial disclosure and based on cost-benefit analysis, this paper introduces the supply chain enterprises financial analysis and constructs the ontology model used to value the value of steel company. In addition, domain knowledge is formally expressed with the help of Web Ontology Language (OWL) language and SWRL (Semantic Web Rule Language) rules. Finally, a case study on a steel company in China proved the effectiveness of the method we proposed.

Keywords: Financial ontology, steel company, supply chain, ontology reasoning.

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Authors: R.M. López-Gutiérrez, C. Cruz-Hernández, C. Posadas-Castillo, E.E.García-Guerrero

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Encoded information based on synchronization of coupled chaotic Nd:YAG lasers in master-slave configuration is numerically studied. Encoding, transmission, and decoding of information in optical chaotic communication with a single channel is presented. We analyze the robustness of the encrypted audio transmission in a channel noise. In order to illustrate this synchronization robustness, we present two cases of study: synchronization and transmission with a single channel without and with noise in the channel.

Keywords: Encryption, Secure coomunication, Chaos, Synchronization, Complex networks, Nd:YAG laser.

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Authors: Xu Jianguo

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In this paper, a generalized self-consistent scheme, or “three phase model", is used to set up a micro-mechanics model for rough surface contact with randomly distributed asperities. The dimensionless average real pressure p is obtained as function of the ratio of the real contact area to the apparent contact area, 0 A / A r . Both elastic and plastic materials are considered, and the influence of the plasticity of material on p is discussed. Both two-dimensional and three-dimensional rough surface contact problems are considered.

Keywords: Contact mechanics, plastic deformation, self-consistent scheme.

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Authors: Saima Ali, Pathamanathan Rajeev, Imteaz A. Monzur

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In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.

Keywords: Corrosion, pit depth, sensitivity analysis, exposure period.

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Authors: Rowland R. Ogunrinde, Yusmadi Y. Jusoh, Noraini Che Pa, Wan Nurhayati W. Rahman, Azizol B. Abdullah

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Enterprise Applications (EAs) aid the organizations achieve operational excellence and competitive advantage. Over time, most Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which are known to be the major drivers of most thriving global economies, use the costly on-premise versions of these applications thereby making business difficult to competitively thrive in the same market environment with their large enterprise counterparts. The advent of cloud computing presents the SMEs an affordable offer and great opportunities as such EAs can be cloud-hosted and rented on a pay-per-use basis which does not require huge initial capital. However, as there are numerous Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) offering EAs as Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), there is a challenge of choosing a suitable provider with Quality of Service (QoS) that meet the organizations’ customized requirements. The proposed model takes care of that and goes a step further to select the most affordable among a selected few of the CSPs. In the earlier stage, before developing the instrument and conducting the pilot test, the researchers conducted a structured interview with three experts to validate the proposed model. In conclusion, the validity and reliability of the instrument were tested through experts, typical respondents, and analyzed with SPSS 22. Results confirmed the validity of the proposed model and the validity and reliability of the instrument.

Keywords: Cloud service provider, enterprise applications, quality of service, selection criteria, small and medium enterprise.

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Authors: Truong Nguyen Luan Vu, Moonyong Lee

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The interactions between input/output variables are a very common phenomenon encountered in the design of multi-loop controllers for interacting multivariable processes, which can be a serious obstacle for achieving a good overall performance of multiloop control system. To overcome this impediment, the decomposed dynamic interaction analysis is proposed by decomposing the multiloop control system into a set of n independent SISO systems with the corresponding effective open-loop transfer function (EOTF) within the dynamic interactions embedded explicitly. For each EOTF, the reduced model is independently formulated by using the proposed reduction design strategy, and then the paired multi-loop proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is derived quite simply and straightforwardly by using internal model control (IMC) theory. This design method can easily be implemented for various industrial processes because of its effectiveness. Several case studies are considered to demonstrate the superior of the proposed method.

Keywords: Multi-loop PID controller, internal model control(IMC), effective open-loop transfer function (EOTF)

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Authors: Patil Ashwini, Archana Thosar

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This paper addresses the mathematical model of wind energy system useful for designing fault tolerant control. To serve the demand of power, large capacity wind energy systems are vital. These systems are installed offshore where non planned service is very costly. Whenever there is a fault in between two planned services, the system may stop working abruptly. This might even lead to the complete failure of the system. To enhance the reliability, the availability and reduce the cost of maintenance of wind turbines, the fault tolerant control systems are very essential. For designing any control system, an appropriate mathematical model is always needed. In this paper, the two-mass model is modified by considering the frequent mechanical faults like misalignments in the drive train, gears and bearings faults. These faults are subject to a wear process and cause frictional losses. This paper addresses these faults in the mathematics of the wind energy system. Further, the work is extended to study the variations of the parameters namely generator inertia constant, spring constant, viscous friction coefficient and gear ratio; on the pole-zero plot which is related with the physical design of the wind turbine. Behavior of the wind turbine during drive train faults are simulated and briefly discussed.

Keywords: Mathematical model of wind energy system, stability analysis, shaft stiffness, viscous friction coefficient, gear ratio, generator inertia, fault tolerant control.

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Authors: Yuji Waizumi, Yuya Tsukabe, Hiroshi Tsunoda, Yoshiaki Nemoto

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A person-to-person information sharing is easily realized by P2P networks in which servers are not essential. Leakage of information, which are caused by malicious accesses for P2P networks, has become a new social issues. To prevent information leakage, it is necessary to detect and block traffics of P2P software. Since some P2P softwares can spoof port numbers, it is difficult to detect the traffics sent from P2P softwares by using port numbers. It is more difficult to devise effective countermeasures for detecting the software because their protocol are not public. In this paper, a discriminating method of network applications based on communication characteristics of application messages without port numbers is proposed. The proposed method is based on an assumption that there can be some rules about time intervals to transmit messages in application layer and the number of necessary packets to send one message. By extracting the rule from network traffic, the proposed method can discriminate applications without port numbers.

Keywords: Network Application Identification, Message Transition Pattern

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Authors: Zhen Chen, Haitao Zhang, Weiyong Ying, Dingye Fang

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Based on a global kinetics of direct dimethyl ether (DME) synthesis process from syngas, a steady-state one-dimensional mathematical model for the bubble column slurry reactor (BCSR) has been established. It was built on the assumption of plug flow of gas phase, sedimentation-dispersion model of catalyst grains and isothermal chamber regardless of reaction heats and rates for the design of an industrial scale bubble column slurry reactor. The simulation results indicate that higher pressure and lower temperature were favorable to the increase of CO conversion, DME selectivity, products yield and the height of slurry bed, which has a coincidence with the characteristic of DME synthesis reaction system, and that the height of slurry bed is lessen with the increasing of operation temperature in the range of 220-260℃. CO conversion, the optimal operation conditions in BCSR were proposed. 

Keywords: Alcohol/ether fuel, bubble column slurry reactor, global kinetics, mathematical model.

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Authors: Swarniv Chandra, Parthasona Maji, Basudev Ghosh

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The nonlinear self-interaction of an electrostatic surface wave on a semibounded quantum plasma with relativistic degeneracy is investigated by using quantum hydrodynamic (QHD) model and the Poisson’s equation with appropriate boundary conditions. It is shown that a part of the second harmonic generated through self-interaction does not have a true surface wave character but propagates obliquely away from the plasma-vacuum interface into the bulk of plasma.

Keywords: Harmonic Generation, Quantum Plasma, Quantum Hydrodynamic Model, Relativistic Degeneracy, Surface waves.

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Authors: Takayuki Shiina

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Mathematical programming has been applied to various problems. For many actual problems, the assumption that the parameters involved are deterministic known data is often unjustified. In such cases, these data contain uncertainty and are thus represented as random variables, since they represent information about the future. Decision-making under uncertainty involves potential risk. Stochastic programming is a commonly used method for optimization under uncertainty. A stochastic programming problem with recourse is referred to as a two-stage stochastic problem. In this study, we consider a stochastic programming problem with simple integer recourse in which the value of the recourse variable is restricted to a multiple of a nonnegative integer. The algorithm of a dynamic slope scaling procedure for solving this problem is developed by using a property of the expected recourse function. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is quite efficient. The stochastic programming model defined in this paper is quite useful for a variety of design and operational problems.

Keywords: stochastic programming problem with recourse, simple integer recourse, dynamic slope scaling procedure

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Authors: Sandhya Dixit, Tilak Raj

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Flexible Manufacturing System (FMS) is seen as an option for industries which want to boost productivity as well as respond quickly to an increasingly changing marketplace. FMS produces in mid variety, mid volume range and can meet the changing market demands very quickly. But still the impact of adoption of FMS on the productivity of any industry is not very clear. In this paper an attempt has been made to model the various factors affecting the productivity of FMS installation using Total Interpretive Structural Modelling (TISM) Technique.

Keywords: Flexible manufacturing system, productivity, total interpretive structural modelling.

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Authors: Shih-Bin Wang, Ping Yuan, Syu-Fang Liu, Ming-Jun Kuo

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By the application of an improved back-propagation neural network (BPNN), a model of current densities for a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) with 10 layers is established in this study. To build the learning data of BPNN, Taguchi orthogonal array is applied to arrange the conditions of operating parameters, which totally 7 factors act as the inputs of BPNN. Also, the average current densities achieved by numerical method acts as the outputs of BPNN. Comparing with the direct solution, the learning errors for all learning data are smaller than 0.117%, and the predicting errors for 27 forecasting cases are less than 0.231%. The results show that the presented model effectively builds a mathematical algorithm to predict performance of a SOFC stack immediately in real time. Also, the calculating algorithms are applied to proceed with the optimization of the average current density for a SOFC stack. The operating performance window of a SOFC stack is found to be between 41137.11 and 53907.89. Furthermore, an inverse predicting model of operating parameters of a SOFC stack is developed here by the calculating algorithms of the improved BPNN, which is proved to effectively predict operating parameters to achieve a desired performance output of a SOFC stack.

Keywords: a SOFC stack, BPNN, inverse predicting model of operating parameters, optimization of the average current density

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Authors: Marco Raciti Castelli, Alberto Castelli, Ernesto Benini

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The construction of a civil structure inside a urban area inevitably modifies the outdoor microclimate at the building site. Wind speed, wind direction, air pollution, driving rain, radiation and daylight are some of the main physical aspects that are subjected to the major changes. The quantitative amount of these modifications depends on the shape, size and orientation of the building and on its interaction with the surrounding environment.The flow field over a flat roof model building has been numerically investigated in order to determine two-dimensional CFD guidelines for the calculation of the turbulent flow over a structure immersed in an atmospheric boundary layer. To this purpose, a complete validation campaign has been performed through a systematic comparison of numerical simulations with wind tunnel experimental data.Several turbulence models and spatial node distributions have been tested for five different vertical positions, respectively from the upstream leading edge to the downstream bottom edge of the analyzed model. Flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the building model have been numerically investigated, allowing a quantification of the capabilities of the CFD code to predict the flow separation and the extension of the recirculation regions.The proposed calculations have allowed the development of a preliminary procedure to be used as a guidance in selecting the appropriate grid configuration and corresponding turbulence model for the prediction of the flow field over a twodimensional roof architecture dominated by flow separation.

Keywords: CFD, roof, building, wind.

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Authors: Anne M. Sørebø, Øystein Sørebø, Maung K. Sein

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The search for factors that influence user behavior has remained an important theme for both the academic and practitioner Information Systems Communities. In this paper we examine relevant user behaviors in the phase after adoption and investigate two factors that are expected to influence such behaviors, namely User Involvement (UI) and Personal Innovativeness in IT (PIIT). We conduct a field study to examine how these factors influence postadoption behavior and how they are interrelated. Building on theoretical premises and prior empirical findings, we propose and test two alternative models of the relationship between these factors. Our results reveal that the best explanation of post-adoption behavior is provided by the model where UI and PIIT independently influence post-adoption behavior. Our findings have important implications for research and practice. To that end, we offer directions for future research.

Keywords: User involvement, personal innovativeness in IT, use of systems, user support, post-adoption behavior.

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Authors: Nuri Yucel, Muhammed Ilter Berberoglu, Salih Karaaslan, Nureddin Dinler

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The objective of this study is to investigate fire behaviors, experimentally and numerically, in a scaled version of an underground station. The effect of ventilation velocity on the fire is examined. Fire experiments are simulated by burning 10 ml isopropyl alcohol fuel in a fire pool with dimensions 5cm x 10cm x 4 mm at the center of 1/100 scaled underground station model. A commercial CFD program FLUENT was used in numerical simulations. For air flow simulations, k-ω SST turbulence model and for combustion simulation, non-premixed combustion model are used. This study showed that, the ventilation velocity is increased from 1 m/s to 3 m/s the maximum temperature in the station is found to be less for ventilation velocity of 1 m/s. The reason for these experimental result lies on the relative dominance of oxygen supply effect on cooling effect. Without piston effect, maximum temperature occurs above the fuel pool. However, when the ventilation velocity increased the flame was tilted in the direction of ventilation and the location of maximum temperature moves along the flow direction. The velocities measured experimentally in the station at different locations are well matched by the CFD simulation results. The prediction of general flow pattern is satisfactory with the smoke visualization tests. The backlayering in velocity is well predicted by CFD simulation. However, all over the station, the CFD simulations predicted higher temperatures compared to experimental measurements.

Keywords: Fire, underground station, flame propagation, CFDsimulation, k-ω SST turbulence model, non-premixed combustionmodel.

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Authors: Lakshmi Keshav, V. G. Srisanthi

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In this experimental investigation shake table tests were conducted on two reduced models that represent normal single room building constructed by Compressed Stabilized Earth Block (CSEB) from locally available soil. One model was constructed with earthquake resisting features (EQRF) having sill band, lintel band and vertical bands to control the building vibration and another one was without Earthquake Resisting Features. To examine the seismic capacity of the models particularly when it is subjected to long-period ground motion by large amplitude by many cycles of repeated loading, the test specimen was shaken repeatedly until the failure. The test results from Hi-end Data Acquisition system show that model with EQRF behave better than without EQRF. This modified masonry model with new material combined with new bands is used to improve the behavior of masonry building.

Keywords: Earth Quake Resisting Features, Compressed Stabilized Earth Blocks, Masonry structures, Shake table testing, Horizontal and vertical bands.

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Authors: Roy Fritzsche, Rainer Lasch

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Avoidable unscheduled maintenance events and unnecessary spare parts deliveries are mostly caused by an incorrect choice of the underlying maintenance strategy. For a faster and more efficient supply of spare parts for aircrafts of an airline we examine options for improving the underlying logistics network integrated in an existing aviation industry network. This paper presents a dynamic prediction model as decision support for maintenance method selection considering requirements of an entire flight network. The objective is to guarantee a high supply of spare parts by an optimal interaction of various network levels and thus to reduce unscheduled maintenance events and minimize total costs. By using a prognostics-based preventive maintenance strategy unscheduled component failures are avoided for an increase in availability and reliability of the entire system. The model is intended for use in an aviation company that utilizes a structured planning process based on collected failures data of components.

Keywords: Aviation industry, Prognosis, Reliability, Preventive maintenance.

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Authors: Safdar Tanweer, Abdul Mobin, Afshar Alam

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The performance and analysis of speech recognition system is illustrated in this paper. An approach to recognize the English word corresponding to digit (0-9) spoken by 2 different speakers is captured in noise free environment. For feature extraction, speech Mel frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC) has been used which gives a set of feature vectors from recorded speech samples. Neural network model is used to enhance the recognition performance. Feed forward neural network with back propagation algorithm model is used. However other speech recognition techniques such as HMM, DTW exist. All experiments are carried out on Matlab.

Keywords: Speech Recognition, MFCC, Neural Network, classifier.

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Authors: Tansuriyavong Suriyon, Endo Takanobu, Boonmee Choompol

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Using the animations video of teaching materials is an effective learning method. However, we thought that more effective learning method is to produce the teaching video by learners themselves. The learners who act as the producer must learn and understand well to produce and present video of teaching materials to others. The purpose of this study is to propose the project based learning (PBL) technique by co-producing video of IT (information technology) teaching materials. We used the T2V player to produce the video based on TVML a TV program description language. By proposed method, we have assigned the learners to produce the animations video for “National Examination for Information Processing Technicians (IPA examination)" in Japan, in order to get them learns various knowledge and skill on IT field. Experimental result showed that learning effect has occurred at the video production process that useful for IT personnel resources development.

Keywords: TVML , T2V Player, The animation made as learning materials, National Examination for Information Processing Technicians, IT Education, Problem Based Learning

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Authors: Swarniv Chandra, Basudev Ghosh

Abstract:

Nonlinear solitary structures of electron plasma waves have been investigated by using nonlinear quantum fluid equations for electrons with an arbitrary temperature. It is shown that the electron degeneracy parameter has significant effects on the linear and nonlinear properties of electron plasma waves. Depending on its value both compressive and rarefactive solitons can be excited in the model plasma under consideration.

Keywords: Electron Plasma Waves, Finite Temperature Model, Modulational Instability, Quantum Plasma, Solitary structure

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Authors: D. Šedivý, S. Fialová

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The main purpose of this study is to show differences between the numerical solution of the flow through the artificial heart valve using Newtonian or non-Newtonian fluid. The simulation was carried out by a commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) package based on finite-volume method. An aortic bileaflet heart valve (Sorin Bicarbon) was used as a pattern for model of real heart valve replacement. Computed tomography (CT) was used to gain the accurate parameters of the valve. Data from CT were transferred in the commercial 3D designer, where the model for CFD was made. Carreau rheology model was applied as non-Newtonian fluid. Physiological data of cardiac cycle were used as boundary conditions. Outputs were taken the leaflets excursion from opening to closure and the fluid dynamics through the valve. This study also includes experimental measurement of pressure fields in ambience of valve for verification numerical outputs. Results put in evidence a favorable comparison between the computational solutions of flow through the mechanical heart valve using Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluid.

Keywords: Computational modeling, dynamic mesh, mechanical heart valve, non-Newtonian fluid, SDOF.

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Authors: Chien-Hui Yang, Che-Yang Lin, Ya-Chen Hsu

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Gold passbook is an investing tool that is especially suitable for investors to do small investment in the solid gold. The gold passbook has the lower risk than other ways investing in gold, but its price is still affected by gold price. However, there are many factors can cause influences on gold price. Therefore, building a model to predict the price of gold passbook can both reduce the risk of investment and increase the benefits. This study investigates the important factors that influence the gold passbook price, and utilize the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) to build the predictive model. This method can not only obtain the significant variables but also perform well in prediction. Finally, the significant variables of gold passbook price, which can be predicted by GMDH, are US dollar exchange rate, international petroleum price, unemployment rate, whole sale price index, rediscount rate, foreign exchange reserves, misery index, prosperity coincident index and industrial index.

Keywords: Gold price, Gold passbook price, Group Method ofData Handling (GMDH), Regression.

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