Search results for: Steganalysis Heuristic approach.
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 5131

Search results for: Steganalysis Heuristic approach.

2671 Characteristics of Hydraulic Jump

Authors: Sumit Gandhi

Abstract:

The effect of an abruptly expanding channel on the main characteristics of hydraulic jump is considered experimentally. The present study was made for supercritical flow of Froude number varying between 2 to 9 and approach to expanded channel width ratios 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and 0.8. Physical explanations of the variation of these characteristics under varying flow conditions are discussed based on the observation drawn from experimental results. The analytical equation for the sequent depth ratio in an abruptly expanding channel as given by eminent hydraulic engineers are verified well with the experimental data for all expansion ratios, and the empirical relation was also verified with the present experimental data.

Keywords: Abruptly Expanding Channel, Hydraulic Jump, Efficiency, Sequent Depth Ratio.

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2670 Gender Differences of Elementary Prospective Teachers in Mathematical Beliefs and Mathematics Teaching Anxiety

Authors: Ersen Yazıcı, Erhan Ertekin

Abstract:

In this study, any possible differences between mathematics beliefs and anxiety of prospective elementary mathematics teachers have been investigated according to their gender. In this purpose, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th grade students from a Government University in Turkey were selected as a sample. Mathematics Teaching Anxiety Scale (MATAS) and Beliefs About Mathematics Survey (BAMS) has been used as data collection tools. As a result of the study, it has been observed that prospective male teachers have more instrumentalist approach in learning mathematics than females according to their mathematical beliefs. On the other hand, females have more mathematics teaching anxiety than males especially, for subject knowledge in mathematics and selfconfidence.

Keywords: Mathematical beliefs, mathematics teaching anxiety, gender, prospective elementary mathematics teachers.

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2669 Dual Pyramid of Agents for Image Segmentation

Authors: K. Idir, H. Merouani, Y. Tlili.

Abstract:

An effective method for the early detection of breast cancer is the mammographic screening. One of the most important signs of early breast cancer is the presence of microcalcifications. For the detection of microcalcification in a mammography image, we propose to conceive a multiagent system based on a dual irregular pyramid. An initial segmentation is obtained by an incremental approach; the result represents level zero of the pyramid. The edge information obtained by application of the Canny filter is taken into account to affine the segmentation. The edge-agents and region-agents cooper level by level of the pyramid by exploiting its various characteristics to provide the segmentation process convergence.

Keywords: Dual Pyramid, Image Segmentation, Multi-agent System, Region/Edge Cooperation.

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2668 A Four Method Framework for Fighting Software Architecture Erosion

Authors: Sundus Ayyaz, Saad Rehman, Usman Qamar

Abstract:

Software Architecture is the basic structure of software that states the development and advancement of a software system. Software architecture is also considered as a significant tool for the construction of high quality software systems. A clean design leads to the control, value and beauty of software resulting in its longer life while a bad design is the cause of architectural erosion where a software evolution completely fails. This paper discusses the occurrence of software architecture erosion and presents a set of methods for the detection, declaration and prevention of architecture erosion. The causes and symptoms of architecture erosion are observed with the examples of prescriptive and descriptive architectures and the practices used to stop this erosion are also discussed by considering different types of software erosion and their affects. Consequently finding and devising the most suitable approach for fighting software architecture erosion and in some way reducing its affect is evaluated and tested on different scenarios.

Keywords: Software Architecture, Architecture Erosion, Prescriptive Architecture, Descriptive Architecture.

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2667 Face Detection using Gabor Wavelets and Neural Networks

Authors: Hossein Sahoolizadeh, Davood Sarikhanimoghadam, Hamid Dehghani

Abstract:

This paper proposes new hybrid approaches for face recognition. Gabor wavelets representation of face images is an effective approach for both facial action recognition and face identification. Perform dimensionality reduction and linear discriminate analysis on the down sampled Gabor wavelet faces can increase the discriminate ability. Nearest feature space is extended to various similarity measures. In our experiments, proposed Gabor wavelet faces combined with extended neural net feature space classifier shows very good performance, which can achieve 93 % maximum correct recognition rate on ORL data set without any preprocessing step.

Keywords: Face detection, Neural Networks, Multi-layer Perceptron, Gabor wavelets.

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2666 3D Mesh Coarsening via Uniform Clustering

Authors: Shuhua Lai, Kairui Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a fast and efficient mesh coarsening algorithm for 3D triangular meshes. Theis approach can be applied to very complex 3D meshes of arbitrary topology and with millions of vertices. The algorithm is based on the clustering of the input mesh elements, which divides the faces of an input mesh into a given number of clusters for clustering purpose by approximating the Centroidal Voronoi Tessellation of the input mesh. Once a clustering is achieved, it provides us an efficient way to construct uniform tessellations, and therefore leads to good coarsening of polygonal meshes. With proliferation of 3D scanners, this coarsening algorithm is particularly useful for reverse engineering applications of 3D models, which in many cases are dense, non-uniform, irregular and arbitrary topology. Examples demonstrating effectiveness of the new algorithm are also included in the paper.

Keywords: Coarsening, mesh clustering, shape approximation, mesh simplification.

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2665 Hand Written Digit Recognition by Multiple Classifier Fusion based on Decision Templates Approach

Authors: Reza Ebrahimpour, Samaneh Hamedi

Abstract:

Classifier fusion may generate more accurate classification than each of the basic classifiers. Fusion is often based on fixed combination rules like the product, average etc. This paper presents decision templates as classifier fusion method for the recognition of the handwritten English and Farsi numerals (1-9). The process involves extracting a feature vector on well-known image databases. The extracted feature vector is fed to multiple classifier fusion. A set of experiments were conducted to compare decision templates (DTs) with some combination rules. Results from decision templates conclude 97.99% and 97.28% for Farsi and English handwritten digits.

Keywords: Decision templates, multi-layer perceptron, characteristics Loci, principle component analysis (PCA).

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2664 An Empirical Analysis of the Board Composition Concerning Logistics Competencies

Authors: Ingrid Göpfert, Michael Stephan, Wanja Wellbrock, Malte Ackermann

Abstract:

Empirical insights into the implementation of logistics competencies at the top management level are scarce. This paper addresses this issue with an explorative approach which is based on a dataset of 872 observations in the years 2000, 2004 and 2008 using quantitative content analysis from annual reports of the 500 publicly listed firms with the highest global research and development expenditures according to the British Department for Business Innovation and Skills. We find that logistics competencies are more pronounced in Asian companies than in their European or American counterparts. On an industrial level the results are quite mixed. Using partial point-biserial correlations we show that logistics competencies are positively related to financial performance.

Keywords: Logistics, supply chain management, content analysis, executive boards, multinational corporations.

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2663 Designing Ontology-Based Knowledge Integration for Preprocessing of Medical Data in Enhancing a Machine Learning System for Coding Assignment of a Multi-Label Medical Text

Authors: Phanu Waraporn

Abstract:

This paper discusses the designing of knowledge integration of clinical information extracted from distributed medical ontologies in order to ameliorate a machine learning-based multilabel coding assignment system. The proposed approach is implemented using a decision tree technique of the machine learning on the university hospital data for patients with Coronary Heart Disease (CHD). The preliminary results obtained show a satisfactory finding that the use of medical ontologies improves the overall system performance.

Keywords: Medical Ontology, Knowledge Integration, Machine Learning, Medical Coding, Text Assignment.

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2662 Sensitizing Rules for Fuzzy Control Charts

Authors: N. Pekin Alakoç, A. Apaydın

Abstract:

Quality control charts indicate out of control conditions if any nonrandom pattern of the points is observed or any point is plotted beyond the control limits. Nonrandom patterns of Shewhart control charts are tested with sensitizing rules. When the processes are defined with fuzzy set theory, traditional sensitizing rules are insufficient for defining all out of control conditions. This is due to the fact that fuzzy numbers increase the number of out of control conditions. The purpose of the study is to develop a set of fuzzy sensitizing rules, which increase the flexibility and sensitivity of fuzzy control charts. Fuzzy sensitizing rules simplify the identification of out of control situations that results in a decrease in the calculation time and number of evaluations in fuzzy control chart approach.

Keywords: Fuzzy set theory, Quality control charts, Run Rules, Unnatural patterns.

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2661 Conception of a Reliable, Low Cost and Autonomous Explorative Hovercraft

Authors: S. Burgalat, L. Teilhac, A. Brand, E. Chastel, M. Jumeline

Abstract:

The paper presents actual benefits and drawbacks of a multidirectional autonomous hovercraft conceived with limited resources and designed for indoor exploration. Recent developments in the field have led to the apparition of very powerful automotive systems capable of very high calculation and exploration in complex unknown environments. They usually propose very complex algorithms, high precision/cost sensors and sometimes have heavy calculation consumption with complex data fusion. These systems are usually powerful but have a certain price, and the benefits may not be worth the cost, especially considering their hardware limitations and their power consumption. The present approach is to build a compromise between cost, power consumption and results preciseness.

Keywords: Hovercraft, Indoor Exploration, Autonomous, Multidirectional, Wireless Control.

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2660 Characteristics of the Severe Rollover Crashes in the UAE Using In-Depth Crash Investigation Data

Authors: Yaser E. Hawas, Md. Didarul Alam

Abstract:

Rollover crashes are complex events entailing interactions of driver, road, vehicle, and environmental factors. The primary objective of this paper is to present an empirical approach that can be used to characterise the rollover crashes and to identify some of the important factors that may lead to rollovers. Among the studied factors are the vehicle types and the rollover occurrence rate after hitting various barrier types. The carried analysis indicated that 71% of the rollover crashes occurred after impact and the type of rollover initiation is “trip/turn over” (nearly 50%). It was also found that light trucks (LTVs) vehicles are more likely to rollover than the sedan vehicles. Barrier impacts are associated with increased incidence of rollover.

Keywords: Empirical, hitting barrier, in-depth crash investigation, rollover, severe crash.

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2659 Self-Tuning Robot Control Based on Subspace Identification

Authors: Mathias Marquardt, Peter Dünow, Sandra Baßler

Abstract:

The paper describes the use of subspace based identification methods for auto tuning of a state space control system. The plant is an unstable but self balancing transport robot. Because of the unstable character of the process it has to be identified from closed loop input-output data. Based on the identified model a state space controller combined with an observer is calculated. The subspace identification algorithm and the controller design procedure is combined to a auto tuning method. The capability of the approach was verified in a simulation experiments under different process conditions.

Keywords: Auto tuning, balanced robot, closed loop identification, subspace identification.

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2658 Computer Simulations of an Augmented Automatic Choosing Control Using Automatic Choosing Functions of Gradient Optimization Type

Authors: Toshinori Nawata

Abstract:

In this paper we consider a nonlinear feedback control called augmented automatic choosing control (AACC) using the automatic choosing functions of gradient optimization type for nonlinear systems. Constant terms which arise from sectionwise linearization of a given nonlinear system are treated as coefficients of a stable zero dynamics. Parameters included in the control are suboptimally selected by minimizing the Hamiltonian with the aid of the genetic algorithm. This approach is applied to a field excitation control problem of power system to demonstrate the splendidness of the AACC. Simulation results show that the new controller can improve performance remarkably well.

Keywords: augmented automatic choosing control, nonlinear control, genetic algorithm, zero dynamics.

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2657 Role of Community Youths in Conservation of Forests and Protected Areas of Bangladesh

Authors: Obaidul Fattah Tanvir, Zinat Ara Afroze

Abstract:

Community living adjacent to forests and Protected Areas, especially in South Asian countries, have a common practice in extracting resources for their living and livelihoods. This extraction of resources, because the way it is done, destroys the biophysical features of the area. Deforestation, wildlife poaching, illegal logging, unauthorized hill cutting etc. are some of the serious issues of concern for the sustainability of the natural resources that has a direct impact on environment and climate as a whole. To ensure community involvement in conservation initiatives of the state, community based forest management, commonly known as Comanagement, has been in practice in 6 South Asian countries. These are -India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Involving community in forestry management was initiated first in Bangladesh in 1979 and reached as an effective co-management approach through a several paradigm shifts. This idea of Comanagement has been institutionalized through a Government Order (GO) by the Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of Bangladesh on November 23, 2009. This GO clearly defines the structure and functions of Co-management and its different bodies. Bangladesh Forest Department has been working in association with community to conserve and manage the Forests and Protected areas of Bangladesh following this legal document. Demographically young people constitute the largest segment of population in Bangladesh. This group, if properly sensitized, can produce valuable impacts on the conservation initiatives, both by community and government. This study traced the major factors that motivate community youths to work effectively with different tiers of comanagement organizations in conservation of forests and Protected Areas of Bangladesh. For the purpose of this study, 3 FGDs were conducted with 30 youths from the community living around the Protected Areas of Cox’s bazar, South East corner of Bangladesh, who are actively involved in Co-management organizations. KII were conducted with 5 key officials of Forest Department stationed at Cox’s Bazar. 2 FGDs were conducted with the representatives of 7 Co-management organizations working in Cox’s Bazar region and approaches of different community outreach activities conducted for forest conservation by 3 private organizations and Projects have been reviewed. Also secondary literatures were reviewed for the history and evolution of Co-management in Bangladesh and six South Asian countries. This study found that innovative community outreach activities that are financed by public and private sectors involving youths and community as a whole have played a pivotal role in conservation of forests and Protected Areas of the region. This approach can be replicated in other regions of Bangladesh as well as other countries of South Asia where Co-Management exists in practice.

Keywords: Community, co-management, conservation, forests, protected areas, youth.

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2656 Adaptive Integral Backstepping Motion Control for Inverted Pendulum

Authors: Ö. Tolga Altınöz

Abstract:

The adaptive backstepping controller for inverted pendulum is designed by using the general motion control model. Backstepping is a novel nonlinear control technique based on the Lyapunov design approach, used when higher derivatives of parameter estimation appear. For easy parameter adaptation, the mathematical model of the inverted pendulum converted into the motion control model. This conversion is performed by taking functions of unknown parameters and dynamics of the system. By using motion control model equations, inverted pendulum is simulated without any information about not only parameters but also measurable dynamics. Also these results are compare with the adaptive backstepping controller which extended with integral action that given from [1].

Keywords: Adaptive backstepping, inverted pendulum, nonlinear adaptive control.

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2655 Finding Sparse Features in Face Detection Using Genetic Algorithms

Authors: H. Sagha, S. Kasaei, E. Enayati, M. Dehghani

Abstract:

Although Face detection is not a recent activity in the field of image processing, it is still an open area for research. The greatest step in this field is the work reported by Viola and its recent analogous is Huang et al. Both of them use similar features and also similar training process. The former is just for detecting upright faces, but the latter can detect multi-view faces in still grayscale images using new features called 'sparse feature'. Finding these features is very time consuming and inefficient by proposed methods. Here, we propose a new approach for finding sparse features using a genetic algorithm system. This method requires less computational cost and gets more effective features in learning process for face detection that causes more accuracy.

Keywords: Face Detection, Genetic Algorithms, Sparse Feature.

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2654 Integration of CMOS Biosensor into a Polymeric Lab-on-a-Chip System

Authors: T. Brettschneider, C. Dorrer, H. Suy, T. Braun, E. Jung, R. Hoofman, M. Bründel, R. Zengerle, F. Lärmer

Abstract:

We present an integration approach of a CMOS biosensor into a polymer based microfluidic environment suitable for mass production. It consists of a wafer-level-package for the silicon die and laser bonding process promoted by an intermediate hot melt foil to attach the sensor package to the microfluidic chip, without the need for dispensing of glues or underfiller. A very good condition of the sensing area was obtained after introducing a protection layer during packaging. A microfluidic flow cell was fabricated and shown to withstand pressures up to Δp = 780 kPa without leakage. The employed biosensors were electrically characterized in a dry environment.

Keywords: CMOS biosensor, laser bonding, silicon polymer integration, wafer level packaging.

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2653 Multiple Input Multiple Output Detection Using Roulette Wheel Based Ant Colony Optimization Technique

Authors: B. Rebekka, B. Malarkodi

Abstract:

This paper describes an approach to detect the transmitted signals for 2×2 Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) setup using roulette wheel based ant colony optimization technique. The results obtained are compared with classical zero forcing and least mean square techniques. The detection rates achieved using this technique are consistently larger than the one achieved using classical methods for 50 number of attempts with two different antennas transmitting the input stream from a user. This paves the path to use alternative techniques to improve the throughput achieved in advanced networks like Long Term Evolution (LTE) networks.

Keywords: MIMO, ant colony optimization, roulette wheel, soft computing, LTE.

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2652 Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of Downward Bubbly Flows

Authors: Mahmood Reza Rahimi, Hajir Karimi

Abstract:

Downward turbulent bubbly flows in pipes were modeled using computational fluid dynamics tools. The Hydrodynamics, phase distribution and turbulent structure of twophase air-water flow in a 57.15 mm diameter and 3.06 m length vertical pipe was modeled by using the 3-D Eulerian-Eulerian multiphase flow approach. Void fraction, liquid velocity and turbulent fluctuations profiles were calculated and compared against experimental data. CFD results are in good agreement with experimental data.

Keywords: CFD, Bubbly flow, Vertical pipe, Population balance modeling, Gas void fraction, Liquid velocity, Normal turbulent stresses.

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2651 Multiple Sequence Alignment Using Three- Dimensional Fragments

Authors: Layal Al Ait, Eduardo Corel, Kifah Tout, Burkhard Morgenstern

Abstract:

Background: Dialign is a DNA/Protein alignment tool for performing pairwise and multiple pairwise alignments through the comparison of gap-free segments (fragments) between sequence pairs. An alignment of two sequences is a chain of fragments, i.e local gap-free pairwise alignments, with the highest total score. METHOD: A new approach is defined in this article which relies on the concept of using three-dimensional fragments – i.e. local threeway alignments -- in the alignment process instead of twodimensional ones. These three-dimensional fragments are gap-free alignments constituting of equal-length segments belonging to three distinct sequences. RESULTS: The obtained results showed good improvments over the performance of DIALIGN.

Keywords: DIALIGN, Multiple sequence alignment, Threedimensional fragments.

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2650 A Metametadata Architecture forPedagogic Data Description

Authors: A. Ismail, M. S. Joy, J. E. Sinclair, M. I. Hamzah

Abstract:

This paper focuses on a novel method for semantic searching and retrieval of information about learning materials. Metametadata encapsulate metadata instances by using the properties and attributes provided by ontologies rather than describing learning objects. A novel metametadata taxonomy has been developed which provides the basis for a semantic search engine to extract, match and map queries to retrieve relevant results. The use of ontological views is a foundation for viewing the pedagogical content of metadata extracted from learning objects by using the pedagogical attributes from the metametadata taxonomy. Using the ontological approach and metametadata (based on the metametadata taxonomy) we present a novel semantic searching mechanism.These three strands – the taxonomy, the ontological views, and the search algorithm – are incorporated into a novel architecture (OMESCOD) which has been implemented.

Keywords: Metadata, metametadata, semantic, ontologies.

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2649 Strategic Information in the Game of Go

Authors: Michael Harre, Terry Bossomaier, Ranqing Chu, Allan Snyder

Abstract:

We introduce a novel approach to measuring how humans learn based on techniques from information theory and apply it to the oriental game of Go. We show that the total amount of information observable in human strategies, called the strategic information, remains constant for populations of players of differing skill levels for well studied patterns of play. This is despite the very large amount of knowledge required to progress from the recreational players at one end of our spectrum to the very best and most experienced players in the world at the other and is in contrast to the idea that having more knowledge might imply more 'certainty' in what move to play next. We show this is true for very local up to medium sized board patterns, across a variety of different moves using 80,000 game records. Consequences for theoretical and practical AI are outlined.

Keywords: Board Games, Cognitive Capacity, Decision Theory, Information Theory.

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2648 Identification of Nonlinear Systems Structured by Hammerstein-Wiener Model

Authors: A. Brouri, F. Giri, A. Mkhida, F. Z. Chaoui, A. Elkarkri, M. L. Chhibat

Abstract:

Standard Hammerstein-Wiener models consist of a linear subsystem sandwiched by two memoryless nonlinearities. The problem of identifying Hammerstein-Wiener systems is addressed in the presence of linear subsystem of structure totally unknown and polynomial input and output nonlinearities. Presently, the system nonlinearities are allowed to be noninvertible. The system identification problem is dealt by developing a two-stage frequency identification method. First, the parameters of system nonlinearities are identified. In the second stage, a frequency approach is designed to estimate the linear subsystem frequency gain. All involved estimators are proved to be consistent.

Keywords: Nonlinear system identification, Hammerstein systems, Wiener systems, frequency identification.

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2647 Robust H State-Feedback Control for Uncertain Fuzzy Markovian Jump Systems: LMI-Based Design

Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote, Sing Kiong Nguang

Abstract:

This paper investigates the problem of designing a robust state-feedback controller for a class of uncertain Markovian jump nonlinear systems that guarantees the L2-gain from an exogenous input to a regulated output is less than or equal to a prescribed value. First, we approximate this class of uncertain Markovian jump nonlinear systems by a class of uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models with Markovian jumps. Then, based on an LMI approach, LMI-based sufficient conditions for the uncertain Markovian jump nonlinear systems to have an H performance are derived. An illustrative example is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed design techniques.

Keywords: Robust H, Fuzzy Control, Markovian Jump Systems, LMI.

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2646 A Novel Approach to EMABS and Comparison with ABS

Authors: Mehrdad N. Khajavi, Abbas Hosseini, N.Bani Mostafa

Abstract:

In this paper two different Antilock braking system (ABS) are simulated and compared. One is the ordinary hydraulic ABS system which we call it ABS and the other is Electromagnetic Antilock braking system which is called (EMABS) the basis of performance of an EMABS is based upon Electromagnetic force. In this system there is no need to use servo hydraulic booster which are used in ABS system. In EMABS to generate the desired force we have use a magnetic relay which works with an input voltage through an air gap (g). The generated force will be amplified by the relay arm, and is applied to the brake shoes and thus the braking torque is generated. The braking torque is proportional to the applied electrical voltage E. to adjust the braking torque it is only necessary to regulate the electrical voltage E which is very faster and has a much smaller time constant T than the ABS system. The simulations of these two different ABS systems are done with MATLAB/SIMULINK software and the superiority of the EMABS has been shown.

Keywords: ABS, EMABS, ECU

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2645 Dynamic Meshing for Material Point Method Computations

Authors: Wookuen Shin, Gregory R. Miller, Pedro Arduino, Peter Mackenzie-Helnwein

Abstract:

This paper presents strategies for dynamically creating, managing and removing mesh cells during computations in the context of the Material Point Method (MPM). The dynamic meshing approach has been developed to help address problems involving motion of a finite size body in unbounded domains in which the extent of material travel and deformation is unknown a priori, such as in the case of landslides and debris flows. The key idea is to efficiently instantiate and search only cells that contain material points, thereby avoiding unneeded storage and computation. Mechanisms for doing this efficiently are presented, and example problems are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of dynamic mesh management relative to alternative approaches.

Keywords: Numerical Analysis, Material Point Method, Large Deformations, Moving Boundaries.

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2644 Toward a Risk Assessment Model Based On Multi-Agent System for Cloud Consumer

Authors: Saadia Drissi, Siham Benhadou, Hicham Medromi

Abstract:

The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: Cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer.

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2643 Model-Driven and Data-Driven Approaches for Crop Yield Prediction: Analysis and Comparison

Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

Abstract:

Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: Crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest.

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2642 Evaluation of Disease Risk Variables in the Control of Bovine Tuberculosis

Authors: Berrin Şentürk

Abstract:

In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: Bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis.

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