Search results for: Bayesian rule

Authors: M. Hari Prabhu

Abstract:

This paper is based on the performance of the Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM) drives using Z-Source Inverter with the simplified rule base of Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC) with the output scaling factor (SF) self-tuning mechanism are proposed. The aim of this paper is to simplify the program complexity of the controller by reducing the number of fuzzy sets of the membership functions (MFs) without losing the system performance and stability via the adjustable controller gain. ZSI exhibits both voltage-buck and voltage-boost capability. It reduces line harmonics, improves reliability, and extends output voltage range. The output SF of the controller can be tuned continuously by a gain updating factor, whose value is derived from fuzzy logic, with the plant error and error change ratio as input variables. Then the results, carried out on a four-phase 6/8 pole SRM based on the dSPACEDS1104 platform, to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the devised methods and also performance of the proposed controllers will be compared with conventional counterpart.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, scaling factor (SF), switched reluctance motor (SRM), variable-speed drives.

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Authors: Kamalendu Pal

Abstract:

This paper describes the main features of a knowledge-based system evaluation method. System evaluation is placed in the context of a hybrid legal decision-support system, Advisory Support for Home Settlement in Divorce (ASHSD). Legal knowledge for ASHSD is represented in two forms, as rules and previously decided cases. Besides distinguishing the two different forms of knowledge representation, the paper outlines the actual use of these forms in a computational framework that is designed to generate a plausible solution for a given case, by using rule-based reasoning (RBR) and case-based reasoning (CBR) in an integrated environment. The nature of suitability assessment of a solution has been considered as a multiple criteria decision-making process in ASHAD evaluation. The evaluation was performed by a combination of discussions and questionnaires with different user groups. The answers to questionnaires used in this evaluations method have been measured as a fuzzy linguistic term. The finding suggests that fuzzy linguistic evaluation is practical and meaningful in knowledge-based system development purpose. 

Keywords: Case-based reasoning, decision-support system, fuzzy linguistic term, rule-based reasoning, system evaluation.

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Authors: J. Alamelu Mangai, Satej Wagle, V. Santhosh Kumar

Abstract:

The exponential increase in the volume of medical image database has imposed new challenges to clinical routine in maintaining patient history, diagnosis, treatment and monitoring. With the advent of data mining and machine learning techniques it is possible to automate and/or assist physicians in clinical diagnosis. In this research a medical image classification framework using data mining techniques is proposed. It involves feature extraction, feature selection, feature discretization and classification. In the classification phase, the performance of the traditional kNN k nearest neighbor classifier is improved using a feature weighting scheme and a distance weighted voting instead of simple majority voting. Feature weights are calculated using the interestingness measures used in association rule mining. Experiments on the retinal fundus images show that the proposed framework improves the classification accuracy of traditional kNN from 78.57 % to 92.85 %.

Keywords: Medical Image Mining, Data Mining, Feature Weighting, Association Rule Mining, k nearest neighbor classifier.

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Authors: Prima Gusti Yanti, Fairul Zabadi

Abstract:

The purpose of the study is to find out relation of moral massage between the authority and globalization in proverb. Proverb is one of the many forms of cultural identity of the Indonesian/Malay people filled with moral values. The values contained within those proverbs are beneficial not only to the society, but also to those who held power amidst on this era of globalization. The method being used is qualitative research through content analysis which is done by describing and uncovering the forms and meanings of proverbs used within Indonesia Minangkabau society. Sources for this study’s data were extracted from a Minangkabau native speaker in the sub district of Tanah Abang, Jakarta. Said sources were retrieved through a series of interviews with the Minangkabau native speaker, whose speech is still adorned with idiomatic expressions. The research findings show that there are 30 existed proverbs or idiomatic expressions in the Minangkabau language often used by its indigenous people. The thirty data contain moral values which are closely interwoven with the matter of power and globalization. Analytical results show that the fourteen moral values contained within proverbs reflect a firm connection between rule and power in globalization; such as: responsible, brave, togetherness and consensus, tolerance, politeness, thorough and meticulous, honest and keeping promise, ingenious and learning, care, self-correction, be fair, alert, arbitrary, self-awareness. Structurally, proverbs possess an unchangeably formal construction; symbolically, proverbs possess meanings that are clearly decided through ethnographic communicative factors along with situational and cultural contexts. Values contained within proverbs may be used as a guide in social management, be it between fellow men, between men and nature, or even between men and their Creator. Therefore, the meanings and values contained within the morals of proverbs could also be utilized as a counsel for those who rule and in charge of power in order to stem the tides of globalization that had already spread into sectoral, territorial and educational continuums.

Keywords: Continuum, globalization, identity, proverb, rule-power.

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Authors: P. S. Gomathi, B. Kalaavathi

Abstract:

The process in which the complementary information from multiple images is integrated to provide composite image that contains more information than the original input images is called image fusion. Medical image fusion provides useful information from multimodality medical images that provides additional information to the doctor for diagnosis of diseases in a better way. This paper represents the wavelet based medical image fusion algorithm on different multimodality medical images. In order to fuse the medical images, images are decomposed using Redundant Wavelet Transform (RWT). The high frequency coefficients are convolved with morphological operator followed by the maximum-selection (MS) rule. The low frequency coefficients are processed by MS rule. The reconstructed image is obtained by inverse RWT. The quantitative measures which includes Mean, Standard Deviation, Average Gradient, Spatial frequency, Edge based Similarity Measures are considered for evaluating the fused images. The performance of this proposed method is compared with Pixel averaging, PCA, and DWT fusion methods. When compared with conventional methods, the proposed framework provides better performance for analysis of multimodality medical images.

Keywords: Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), Image Fusion, Morphological Processing, Redundant Wavelet Transform (RWT).

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Authors: Yoshitaka Fujiwara, Jun-ichirou Fukushima, Yasunari Maeda

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Keys to high-quality face-to-face education are ensuring flexibility in the way lectures are given, and providing care and responsiveness to learners. This paper describes a face-to-face education support system that is designed to raise the satisfaction of learners and reduce the workload on instructors. This system consists of a lecture adaptation assistance part, which assists instructors in adapting teaching content and strategy, and a Q&A assistance part, which provides learners with answers to their questions. The core component of the former part is a “learning achievement map", which is composed of a Bayesian network (BN). From learners- performance in exercises on relevant past lectures, the lecture adaptation assistance part obtains information required to adapt appropriately the presentation of the next lecture. The core component of the Q&A assistance part is a case base, which accumulates cases consisting of questions expected from learners and answers to them. The Q&A assistance part is a case-based search system equipped with a search index which performs probabilistic inference. A prototype face-to-face education support system has been built, which is intended for the teaching of Java programming, and this approach was evaluated using this system. The expected degree of understanding of each learner for a future lecture was derived from his or her performance in exercises on past lectures, and this expected degree of understanding was used to select one of three adaptation levels. A model for determining the adaptation level most suitable for the individual learner has been identified. An experimental case base was built to examine the search performance of the Q&A assistance part, and it was found that the rate of successfully finding an appropriate case was 56%.

Keywords: Bayesian network, face-to-face education, lecture adaptation, Q&A assistance.

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Authors: Haibo Hu, Dan Yang, Chunxiao Ye, Chunlei Fu, Ren Li

Abstract:

High quality requirements analysis is one of the most crucial activities to ensure the success of a software project, so that requirements verification for software system becomes more and more important in Requirements Engineering (RE) and it is one of the most helpful strategies for improving the quality of software system. Related works show that requirement elicitation and analysis can be facilitated by ontological approaches and semantic web technologies. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid method which aims to verify requirements with structural and formal semantics to detect interactions. The proposed method is twofold: one is for modeling requirements with the semantic web language OWL, to construct a semantic context; the other is a set of interaction detection rules which are derived from scenario-based analysis and represented with semantic web rule language (SWRL). SWRL based rules are working with rule engines like Jess to reason in semantic context for requirements thus to detect interactions. The benefits of the proposed method lie in three aspects: the method (i) provides systematic steps for modeling requirements with an ontological approach, (ii) offers synergy of requirements elicitation and domain engineering for knowledge sharing, and (3)the proposed rules can systematically assist in requirements interaction detection.

Keywords: Requirements Engineering, Semantic Web, OWL, Requirements Interaction Detection, SWRL.

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Authors: Yogi Satrya Aryadinata, Anne Laurent, Michel Sala

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Gradual patterns have been studied for many years as they contain precious information. They have been integrated in many expert systems and rule-based systems, for instance to reason on knowledge such as “the greater the number of turns, the greater the number of car crashes”. In many cases, this knowledge has been considered as a rule “the greater the number of turns → the greater the number of car crashes” Historically, works have thus been focused on the representation of such rules, studying how implication could be defined, especially fuzzy implication. These rules were defined by experts who were in charge to describe the systems they were working on in order to turn them to operate automatically. More recently, approaches have been proposed in order to mine databases for automatically discovering such knowledge. Several approaches have been studied, the main scientific topics being: how to determine what is an relevant gradual pattern, and how to discover them as efficiently as possible (in terms of both memory and CPU usage). However, in some cases, end-users are not interested in raw level knowledge, and are rather interested in trends. Moreover, it may be the case that no relevant pattern can be discovered at a low level of granularity (e.g. city), whereas some can be discovered at a higher level (e.g. county). In this paper, we thus extend gradual pattern approaches in order to consider multiple level gradual patterns. For this purpose, we consider two aggregation policies, namely horizontal and vertical.

Keywords: Gradual Pattern.

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Authors: Songlin Yang, Ying Ge

Abstract:

This paper shows that some properties of the decision rules in the literature do not hold by presenting a counterexample. We give sufficient and necessary conditions under which these properties are valid. These results will be helpful when one tries to choose the right decision rules in the research of rough set theory.

Keywords: set, Decision table, Decision rule, coverage factor.

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Authors: Kongsheng Zhang, Li Ge

Abstract:

It is a one-sided hypothesis testing process for assessing bioequivalence. Bootstrap and modified large-sample(MLS) methods are considered to study individual bioequivalence(IBE), type I error and power of hypothesis tests are simulated and compared with FDA(2001). The results show that modified large-sample method is equivalent to the method of FDA(2001) .

Keywords: Individual bioequivalence, bootstrap, Bayesian bootstrap, modified large-sample.

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Authors: Xun Ge

Abstract:

Recently, X. Ge and J. Qian investigated some relations between higher mathematics scores and calculus scores (resp. linear algebra scores, probability statistics scores) for Chinese university students. Based on rough-set theory, they established an information system S = (U,CuD,V, f). In this information system, higher mathematics score was taken as a decision attribute and calculus score, linear algebra score, probability statistics score were taken as condition attributes. They investigated importance of each condition attribute with respective to decision attribute and strength of each condition attribute supporting decision attribute. In this paper, we give further investigations for this issue. Based on the above information system S = (U, CU D, V, f), we analyze the decision rules between condition and decision granules. For each x E U, we obtain support (resp. strength, certainty factor, coverage factor) of the decision rule C —>x D, where C —>x D is the decision rule induced by x in S = (U, CU D, V, f). Results of this paper gives new analysis of on higher mathematics scores for Chinese university students, which can further lead Chinese university students to raise higher mathematics scores in Chinese graduate student entrance examination.

Keywords: Rough set, support, strength, certainty factor, coverage factor.

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Authors: Mario Mastriani, Alberto E. Giraldez

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In this paper, a new probability density function (pdf) is proposed to model the statistics of wavelet coefficients, and a simple Kalman-s filter is derived from the new pdf using Bayesian estimation theory. Specifically, we decompose the speckled image into wavelet subbands, we apply the Kalman-s filter to the high subbands, and reconstruct a despeckled image from the modified detail coefficients. Experimental results demonstrate that our method compares favorably to several other despeckling methods on test synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images.

Keywords: Kalman's filter, shrinkage, speckle, wavelets.

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Authors: Wafa' S.Al-Sharafat, Reyadh Naoum

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Society has grown to rely on Internet services, and the number of Internet users increases every day. As more and more users become connected to the network, the window of opportunity for malicious users to do their damage becomes very great and lucrative. The objective of this paper is to incorporate different techniques into classier system to detect and classify intrusion from normal network packet. Among several techniques, Steady State Genetic-based Machine Leaning Algorithm (SSGBML) will be used to detect intrusions. Where Steady State Genetic Algorithm (SSGA), Simple Genetic Algorithm (SGA), Modified Genetic Algorithm and Zeroth Level Classifier system are investigated in this research. SSGA is used as a discovery mechanism instead of SGA. SGA replaces all old rules with new produced rule preventing old good rules from participating in the next rule generation. Zeroth Level Classifier System is used to play the role of detector by matching incoming environment message with classifiers to determine whether the current message is normal or intrusion and receiving feedback from environment. Finally, in order to attain the best results, Modified SSGA will enhance our discovery engine by using Fuzzy Logic to optimize crossover and mutation probability. The experiments and evaluations of the proposed method were performed with the KDD 99 intrusion detection dataset.

Keywords: MSSGBML, Network Intrusion Detection, SGA, SSGA.

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Authors: Hany Mahgoub, Dietmar Rösner, Nabil Ismail, Fawzy Torkey

Abstract:

This paper describes text mining technique for automatically extracting association rules from collections of textual documents. The technique called, Extracting Association Rules from Text (EART). It depends on keyword features for discover association rules amongst keywords labeling the documents. In this work, the EART system ignores the order in which the words occur, but instead focusing on the words and their statistical distributions in documents. The main contributions of the technique are that it integrates XML technology with Information Retrieval scheme (TFIDF) (for keyword/feature selection that automatically selects the most discriminative keywords for use in association rules generation) and use Data Mining technique for association rules discovery. It consists of three phases: Text Preprocessing phase (transformation, filtration, stemming and indexing of the documents), Association Rule Mining (ARM) phase (applying our designed algorithm for Generating Association Rules based on Weighting scheme GARW) and Visualization phase (visualization of results). Experiments applied on WebPages news documents related to the outbreak of the bird flu disease. The extracted association rules contain important features and describe the informative news included in the documents collection. The performance of the EART system compared with another system that uses the Apriori algorithm throughout the execution time and evaluating extracted association rules.

Keywords: Text mining, data mining, association rule mining

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Authors: Amna Noreen , Kare Olaussen

Abstract:

We demonstrate that it is possible to compute wave function normalization constants for a class of Schr¨odinger type equations by an algorithm which scales linearly (in the number of eigenfunction evaluations) with the desired precision P in decimals.

Keywords: Eigenvalue problems, bound states, trapezoidal rule, poisson resummation.

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Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

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In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, Gaussian processes, robot control learning, tracked vehicles.

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Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

Abstract:

We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: Autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision-support, interventions, patterns-of-life, predictive analytics, predictive insights.

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Authors: P. Bergl

Abstract:

Numerous divergence measures (spectral distance, cepstral distance, difference of the cepstral coefficients, Kullback-Leibler divergence, distance given by the General Likelihood Ratio, distance defined by the Recursive Bayesian Changepoint Detector and the Mahalanobis measure) are compared in this study. The measures are used for detection of abrupt spectral changes in synthetic AR signals via the sliding window algorithm. Two experiments are performed; the first is focused on detection of single boundary while the second concentrates on detection of a couple of boundaries. Accuracy of detection is judged for each method; the measures are compared according to results of both experiments.

Keywords: Abrupt changes detection, autoregressive model, divergence measure.

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Authors: Hemant Kumar, Nilendu Das

Abstract:

A study based on ANN structure gives us the information to predict the size of the future in realizing a past event. ANN, IMD (Indian meteorological department) data and remote sensing were used to enable a number of parameters for calculating the size that may occur in the future. A threshold selected specifically above the high-frequency harvest reached the area during the selected seismic activity. In the field of human and local biodiversity it remains to obtain the right parameter compared to the frequency of impact. But during the study the assumption is that predicting seismic activity is a difficult process, not because of the parameters involved here, which can be analyzed and funded in research activity.

Keywords: ANN, Bayesian class, earthquakes, IMD.

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Authors: Kamal K.Bharadwaj, Rekha Kandwal

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An important structuring mechanism for knowledge bases is building clusters based on the content of their knowledge objects. The objects are clustered based on the principle of maximizing the intraclass similarity and minimizing the interclass similarity. Clustering can also facilitate taxonomy formation, that is, the organization of observations into a hierarchy of classes that group similar events together. Hierarchical representation allows us to easily manage the complexity of knowledge, to view the knowledge at different levels of details, and to focus our attention on the interesting aspects only. One of such efficient and easy to understand systems is Hierarchical Production rule (HPRs) system. A HPR, a standard production rule augmented with generality and specificity information, is of the following form Decision If < condition> Generality Specificity . HPRs systems are capable of handling taxonomical structures inherent in the knowledge about the real world. In this paper, a set of related HPRs is called a cluster and is represented by a HPR-tree. This paper discusses an algorithm based on cumulative learning scenario for dynamic structuring of clusters. The proposed scheme incrementally incorporates new knowledge into the set of clusters from the previous episodes and also maintains summary of clusters as Synopsis to be used in the future episodes. Examples are given to demonstrate the behaviour of the proposed scheme. The suggested incremental structuring of clusters would be useful in mining data streams.

Keywords: Cumulative learning, clustering, data mining, hierarchical production rules.

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Authors: Muhammad Raza Ali, Tim Morris

Abstract:

Skin color is an important visual cue for computer vision systems involving human users. In this paper we combine skin color and optical flow for detection and tracking of skin regions. We apply these techniques to gesture recognition with encouraging results. We propose a novel skin similarity measure. For grouping detected skin regions we propose a novel skin region grouping mechanism. The proposed techniques work with any number of skin regions making them suitable for a multiuser scenario.

Keywords: Bayesian tracking, chromaticity space, optical flowgesture recognition

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Authors: Girija Chetty, Monica Singh

Abstract:

In this paper we propose a novel approach for ascertaining human identity based on fusion of profile face and gait biometric cues The identification approach based on feature learning in PCA-LDA subspace, and classification using multivariate Bayesian classifiers allows significant improvement in recognition accuracy for low resolution surveillance video scenarios. The experimental evaluation of the proposed identification scheme on a publicly available database [2] showed that the fusion of face and gait cues in joint PCA-LDA space turns out to be a powerful method for capturing the inherent multimodality in walking gait patterns, and at the same time discriminating the person identity..

Keywords: Biometrics, gait recognition, PCA, LDA, Eigenface, Fisherface, Multivariate Gaussian Classifier

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Authors: Rania Mustafa

Abstract:

This audit was conducted at Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Wythenshawe Hospital Radiology and Accident and Emergency [A&E] Department to assess the appropriateness of clinical information in X-ray requests, specifically in cases of acute ankle injuries. As per the Ottawa Ankle Rules and the recommendations of National Institute for Health and Care Excellence [NICE] and the Royal College of Radiology, we aimed to evaluate the appropriateness of referrals and the thoroughness of clinical information provided by Emergency Department [ED] clinicians for ankle radiography. Our goal was to achieve 100% compliance with these guidelines. The audit involved a comprehensive analysis spanning the period from August 2022 to January 2023, encompassing patient records, radiographic orders, and clinical assessments. Data collection included patient demographics, presenting complaints, clinical assessments, adherence to Ottawa Ankle Rules criteria, and subsequent radiography orders. Here we conducted two audit cycles, involving 38 patients in the first cycle and 86 patients in the second cycle. The data were furtherly filtered to include all patients who were referred from the ED for an ankle Xray with a history of acute trauma and age of more than 18 years. The key finding was that in August 2022, 60% of cases met the Ottawa Ankle Rules criteria accurately, indicating a need for improvement in adherence. However, by January 2023, there was a notable improvement, with 95% of cases accurately meeting the criteria. This significant change reflects an increased alignment with best practices for ankle radiography referrals.

Keywords: Ankle, injuries, Ottawa Ankle Rule, X-rays.

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Authors: Ruigang Zhang, Wuyungaowa, Xingchen Ma

Abstract:

In this paper, we present some formulas of symbolic operator summation, which involving Generalization well-know number sequences or polynomial sequences, and mean while we obtain some identities about the sequences by employing M-R‘s substitution rule.

Keywords: Generating functions, operators sequence group, Riordan arrays, R. G operator group, combinatorial identities.

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Authors: Anupam Kumar, Abdul Hamid Bhat, Pramod Agarwal

Abstract:

Bidirectional energy transfer capability with high efficiency and reduced cost is fast gaining prominence in the central part of a lot of power conversion systems in Direct Current (DC) microgrid. Preferably, under the economics constraints, these systems utilise a single high efficiency power electronics conversion system and a dual active bridge converter. In this paper, modeling and performance of Dual Active Bridge (DAB) converter with Extended Phase Shift (EPS) is evaluated with two batteries on both sides of DC bus and bidirectional energy transfer is facilitated and this is further compared with the Single Phase Shift (SPS) mode of operation. Optimum operating zone is identified through exhaustive simulations using MATLAB/Simulink and SimPowerSystem software. Reduced rules based fuzzy logic controller is implemented for closed loop control of DAB converter. The control logic enables the bidirectional energy transfer within the batteries even at lower duty ratios. Charging and discharging of batteries is supervised by the fuzzy logic controller. State of charge, current and voltage for both the batteries are plotted in the battery characteristics. Power characteristics of batteries are also obtained using MATLAB simulations.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, rule base, membership functions, dual active bridge converter, bidirectional power flow, duty ratio, extended phase shift, state of charge.

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Authors: M. Abdullah-Al-Wadud

Abstract:

Sensor-based Activity Recognition systems usually accounts which sensors have been activated to perform an activity. The system then combines the conditional probabilities of those sensors to represent different activities and takes the decision based on that. However, the information about the sensors which are not activated may also be of great help in deciding which activity has been performed. This paper proposes an approach where the sensory data related to both usage and non-usage of objects are utilized to make the classification of activities. Experimental results also show the promising performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: Naïve Bayesian-based classification, Activity recognition, sensor data, object-usage model.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: Konstantinos C. Giotopoulos, Christos E. Alexakos, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Spiridon D.Likothanassis

Abstract:

In this contribution a newly developed elearning environment is presented, which incorporates Intelligent Agents and Computational Intelligence Techniques. The new e-learning environment is constituted by three parts, the E-learning platform Front-End, the Student Questioner Reasoning and the Student Model Agent. These parts are distributed geographically in dispersed computer servers, with main focus on the design and development of these subsystems through the use of new and emerging technologies. These parts are interconnected in an interoperable way, using web services for the integration of the subsystems, in order to enhance the user modelling procedure and achieve the goals of the learning process.

Keywords: E-learning environments, intelligent agents, user modeling, Bayesian Networks, computational intelligence.

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Authors: Konstantinos C. Giotopoulos, Christos E. Alexakos, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Spiridon D.Likothanassis

Abstract:

In this contribution a newly developed e-learning environment is presented, which incorporates Intelligent Agents and Computational Intelligence Techniques. The new e-learning environment is constituted by three parts, the E-learning platform Front-End, the Student Questioner Reasoning and the Student Model Agent. These parts are distributed geographically in dispersed computer servers, with main focus on the design and development of these subsystems through the use of new and emerging technologies. These parts are interconnected in an interoperable way, using web services for the integration of the subsystems, in order to enhance the user modelling procedure and achieve the goals of the learning process.

Keywords: Computational Intelligence, E-learning Environments, Intelligent Agents, User Modelling, Bayesian Networks.

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Authors: Yu. Menshikov

Abstract:

In this paper the influence of errors of function derivatives in initial time which have been obtained by experiment (uncontrollable inaccuracy) to the results of inverse problem solution was investigated. It was shown that these errors distort the inverse problem solution as a rule near the beginning of interval where the solutions are analyzed. Several methods for removing the influence of uncontrollable inaccuracy have been suggested. 

Keywords: Inverse problems, uncontrollable inaccuracy, filtration.

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