Search results for: regional influence.
207 Work System Design in Productivity for Small and Medium Enterprises: A Systematic Literature Review
Authors: S. Halofaki, D. R. Seenivasagam, P. Bijay, K. Singh, R. Ananthanarayanan
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This comprehensive literature review delves into the effects and applications of work system design on the performance of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). The review process involved three independent reviewers who screened 514 articles through a four-step procedure: removing duplicates, assessing keyword relevance, evaluating abstract content, and thoroughly reviewing full-text articles. Various criteria such as relevance to the research topic, publication type, study type, language, publication date, and methodological quality were employed to exclude certain publications. A portion of articles that met the predefined inclusion criteria were included as a result of this systematic literature review. These selected publications underwent data extraction and analysis to compile insights regarding the influence of work system design on SME performance. Additionally, the quality of the included studies was assessed, and the level of confidence in the body of evidence was established. The findings of this review shed light on how work system design impacts SME performance, emphasizing important implications and applications. Furthermore, the review offers suggestions for further research in this critical area and summarizes the current state of knowledge in the field. Understanding the intricate connections between work system design and SME success can enhance operational efficiency, employee engagement, and overall competitiveness for SMEs. This comprehensive examination of the literature contributes significantly to both academic research and practical decision-making for SMEs.
Keywords: Literature review, productivity, small and medium-sized enterprises, SMEs, work system design.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 102206 Hallucinatory Activity in Schizophrenia: The Relationship with Childhood Memories, Submissive Behavior, Social Comparison, and Depression
Authors: C. Barreto Carvalho, C. da Motta, J. Pinto-Gouveia, E. B. Peixoto
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Auditory hallucinations among the most invalidating and distressing experiences reported by patients diagnosed with schizophrenia, leading to feelings of powerlessness and helplessness towards their illness. In more severe cases, these auditory hallucinations can take the form of commanding voices, which are often related to high suicidality rates in these patients. Several authors propose that the meanings attributed to the hallucinatory experience, rather than characteristics like form and content, can be determinant in patients’ reactions to hallucinatory activity, particularly in the case of voice-hearing experiences. In this study, 48 patients diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia presenting auditory hallucinations were studied. Multiple regression analyses were computed to study the influence of several developmental aspects, such as family and social dynamics, bullying, depression, and sociocognitive variables on the auditory hallucinations, on patients’ attributions and relationships with their voices, and on the resulting invalidation of hallucinatory experience. Overall, results showed how relationships with voices can mirror several aspects of interpersonal relationship with others, and how self-schemas, depression and actual social relationships help shaping the voice-hearing experience. Early experiences of victimization and submission help predict the attributions of omnipotence of the voices, and increased hostility from parents seems to increase the malevolence of the voices, suggesting that socio-cognitive factors can significantly contribute to the etiology and maintenance of auditory hallucinations. The understanding of the characteristics of auditory hallucinations and the relationships patients established with their voices can allow the development of more promising therapeutic interventions that can be more effective in decreasing invalidation caused by this devastating mental illness.Keywords: Auditory hallucinations, beliefs, life events, schizophrenia.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2255205 Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth by Industries in Central and Eastern European Countries
Authors: Shorena Pharjiani
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Present empirical paper investigates the relationship between FDI and economic growth by 10 selected industries in 10 Central and Eastern European countries from the period 1995 to 2012. Different estimation approaches were used to explore the connection between FDI and economic growth, for example OLS, RE, FE with and without time dummies. Obtained empirical results leads to some main consequences: First, the Central and East European countries (CEEC) attracted foreign direct investment, which raised the productivity of industries they entered in. It should be concluded that the linkage between FDI and output growth by industries is positive and significant enough to suggest that foreign firm’s participation enhanced the productivity of the industries they occupied. There had been an endogeneity problem in the regression and fixed effects estimation approach was used which partially corrected the regression analysis in order to make the results less biased. Second, it should be stressed that the results show that time has an important role in making FDI operational for enhancing output growth by industries via total factor productivity. Third, R&D positively affected economic growth and at the same time, it should take some time for research and development to influence economic growth. Fourth, the general trends masked crucial differences at the country level: over the last 20 years, the analysis of the tables and figures at the country level show that the main recipients of FDI of the 11 Central and Eastern European countries were Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. The main reason was that these countries had more open door policies for attracting the FDI. Fifth, according to the graphical analysis, while Hungary had the highest FDI inflow in this region, it was not reflected in the GDP growth as much as in other Central and Eastern European countries.Keywords: Central and East European countries (CEEC), economic growth, FDI, panel data.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1665204 Promoting Open Educational Resources (OER) in Theological/Religious Education in Nigeria
Authors: Miracle Ajah
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One of the biggest challenges facing Theological/ Religious Education in Nigeria is access to quality learning materials. For instance at the Trinity (Union) Theological College, Umuahia, it was difficult for lecturers to access suitable and qualitative materials for instruction especially the ones that would suit the African context and stimulate a deep rooted interest among the students. Some textbooks written by foreign authors were readily available in the School Library, but were lacking in the College bookshops for students to own copies. Even when the College was able to order some of the books from abroad, it did not usher in the needed enthusiasm expected from the students because they were either very expensive or very difficult to understand during private studies. So it became necessary to develop contextual materials which were affordable and understandable, though with little success. The National Open University of Nigeria (NOUN)’s innovation in the development and sharing of learning resources through its Open Courseware is a welcome development and of great assistance to students. Apart from NOUN students who could easily access the materials, many others from various theological/religious institutes across the nation have benefited immensely. So, the thesis of this paper is that the promotion of open educational resources in theological/religious education in Nigeria would facilitate a better informed/equipped religious leadership, which would in turn impact its adherents for a healthier society and national development. Adopting a narrative and historical approach within the context of Nigeria’s educational system, the paper discusses: educational traditions in Nigeria; challenges facing theological/religious education in Nigeria; and benefits of open educational resources. The study goes further to making recommendations on how OER could positively influence theological/religious education in Nigeria. It is expected that theologians, religious educators, and ODL practitioners would find this work very useful.
Keywords: Nigeria, OER, religious education, theological education.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2408203 Currency Boards in Crisis: Experience of Baltic Countries
Authors: Gordana Kordić, Petra Palić
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The European countries that during the past two decades based their exchange rate regimes on currency board arrangement (CBA) are usually analysed from the perspective of corner solution choice’s stabilisation effects. There is an open discussion on the positive and negative background of a strict exchange rate regime choice, although it should be seen as part of the transition process towards the monetary union membership. The focus of the paper is on the Baltic countries that after two decades of a rigid exchange rate arrangement and strongly influenced by global crisis are finishing their path towards the euro zone. Besides the stabilising capacity, the CBA is highly vulnerable regime, with limited developing potential. The rigidity of the exchange rate (and monetary) system, despite the ensured credibility, do not leave enough (or any) space for the adjustment and/or active crisis management. Still, the Baltics are in a process of recovery, with fiscal consolidation measures combined with (painful and politically unpopular) measures of internal devaluation. Today, two of them (Estonia and Latvia) are members of euro zone, fulfilling their ultimate transition targets, but de facto exchanging one fixed regime with another. The paper analyses the challenges for the CBA in unstable environment since the fixed regimes rely on imported stability and are sensitive to external shocks. With limited monetary instruments, these countries were oriented to the fiscal policies and used a combination of internal devaluation and tax policy measures. Despite their rather quick recovery, our second goal is to analyse the long term influence that the measures had on the national economy.
Keywords: Currency Board Arrangement, internal devaluation, exchange rate regime, Great recession.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2046202 Motivating Factors and Prospects for Rural Community Involvement in Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Mantanani Island, Sabah, Malaysia
Authors: F. Fabeil Noor, Roslinah Mahmud, Janice L. H. Nga, Rasid Mail
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In Malaysia, particularly in Sabah, the government has been promoting entrepreneurship among rural people to encourage them to earn their living by making good use of the diverse natural resources and local cultures of Sabah. Nevertheless, despite the government’s aim to encourage more local community in rural area to involve in entrepreneurship, the involvement of community in entrepreneurial activity is still low. It is crucial to identify the factors stimulate (or prevent) the involvement of rural community in Sabah in entrepreneurial activity. Therefore, this study tries to investigate the personal and contextual factors that may have impact on decision to start a business among the local community in Mantanani Island. In addition, this study also aims to identify the perceived benefits they receive from entrepreneurial activity. A structured face-to-face interview was conducted with 61 local communities in Mantanani Island. Data analysis revealed that passion, personal skills and self-confidence are the significant internal factors to entrepreneurial activity, whereas access to finance, labour and infrastructure are the significant external factors that are found to influence entrepreneurship. In terms of perceived rewards they received from taking up small business, it was found that respondents are predominantly agreed that entrepreneurship offers financial benefit than non-financial. In addition, this study also offers several suggestions for entrepreneurship development in Mantanani Island and it is hoped that this study may help the related agency to develop effective support policies in order to encourage more people in rural area to involve in entrepreneurship.
Keywords: Entrepreneurship, motivation, perceived rewards, rural community.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1272201 Finite Element Approach to Evaluate Time Dependent Shear Behavior of Connections in Hybrid Steel-PC Girder under Sustained Loading
Authors: Mohammad Najmol Haque, Takeshi Maki, Jun Sasaki
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Headed stud shear connections are widely used in the junction or embedded zone of hybrid girder to achieve whole composite action with continuity that can sustain steel-concrete interfacial tensile and shear forces. In Japan, Japan Road Association (JRA) specifications are used for hybrid girder design that utilizes very low level of stud capacity than those of American Institute of Steel Construction (AISC) specifications, Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE) specifications and EURO code. As low design shear strength is considered in design of connections, the time dependent shear behavior due to sustained external loading is not considered, even not fully studied. In this study, a finite element approach was used to evaluate the time dependent shear behavior for headed studs used as connections at the junction. This study clarified, how the sustained loading distinctively impacted on changing the interfacial shear of connections with time which was sensitive to lodging history, positions of flanges, neighboring studs, position of prestress bar and reinforcing bar, concrete strength, etc. and also identified a shear influence area. Stud strength was also confirmed through pushout tests. The outcome obtained from the study may provide an important basis and reference data in designing connections of hybrid girders with enhanced stud capacity with due consideration of their long-term shear behavior.
Keywords: Finite element approach, hybrid girder, headed stud shear connections, sustained loading, time dependent shear behavior.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 628200 Determination of Some Physical and Mechanical Properties of Pofaki Variety of Pea
Authors: M. Azadbakht, E. Ghajarjazi, E. Amiri, F. Abdigaol
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In this research the effect of moisture at three levels (47, 57, and 67 w.b.%) on the physical properties of the Pofaki pea variety including, dimensions, geometric mean diameter, volume, sphericity index and the surface area was determined. The influence of different moisture levels (47, 57 and 67 w.b.%), in two loading orientation (longitudinal and transverse) and three loading speed (4,6 and 8 mm min-1) on the mechanical properties of pea such as maximum deformation, rupture force, rupture energy, toughness and the power to break the pea was investigated. It was observed in the physical properties that moisture changes were affective at 1% on, dimensions, geometric mean diameter, volume, sphericity index and the surface area. It was observed in the mechanical properties that moisture changes were effective at 1% on, maximum deformation, rupture force, rupture energy, toughness and the power to break. Loading speed was effective on maximum deformation, rupture force, rupture energy at 1% and it was effective on toughness at 5%. Loading orientation was effective on maximum deformation, rupture force, rupture energy, toughness at 1% and it was effective on power at 5%. The mutual effect of speed and orientation were effective on rupture energy at 1% and were effective on toughness at 5% probability. The mutual effect of moisture and speed were effective on rupture force and rupture energy at 1% and were effective on toughness 5% probability. The mutual effect of orientation and moisture on rupture energy and toughness were effective at 1%.
Keywords: Mechanical properties, Pea, Physical properties.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2341199 COVID_ICU_BERT: A Fine-tuned Language Model for COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit Clinical Notes
Authors: Shahad Nagoor, Lucy Hederman, Kevin Koidl, Annalina Caputo
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Doctors’ notes reflect their impressions, attitudes, clinical sense, and opinions about patients’ conditions and progress, and other information that is essential for doctors’ daily clinical decisions. Despite their value, clinical notes are insufficiently researched within the language processing community. Automatically extracting information from unstructured text data is known to be a difficult task as opposed to dealing with structured information such as physiological vital signs, images and laboratory results. The aim of this research is to investigate how Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and machine learning techniques applied to clinician notes can assist in doctors’ decision making in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. The hypothesis is that clinical outcomes like survival or mortality can be useful to influence the judgement of clinical sentiment in ICU clinical notes. This paper presents two contributions: first, we introduce COVID_ICU_BERT, a fine-tuned version of a clinical transformer model that can reliably predict clinical sentiment for notes of COVID patients in ICU. We train the model on clinical notes for COVID-19 patients, ones not previously seen by Bio_ClinicalBERT or Bio_Discharge_Summary_BERT. The model which was based on Bio_ClinicalBERT achieves higher predictive accuracy than the one based on Bio_Discharge_Summary_BERT (Acc 93.33%, AUC 0.98, and Precision 0.96). Second, we perform data augmentation using clinical contextual word embedding that is based on a pre-trained clinical model to balance the samples in each class in the data (survived vs. deceased patients). Data augmentation improves the accuracy of prediction slightly (Acc 96.67%, AUC 0.98, and Precision 0.92).
Keywords: BERT fine-tuning, clinical sentiment, COVID-19, data augmentation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 276198 Influence of Paralleled Capacitance Effect in Well-defined Multiple Value Logical Level System with Active Load
Authors: Chih Chin Yang, Yen Chun Lin, Hsiao Hsuan Cheng
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Three similar negative differential resistance (NDR) profiles with both high peak to valley current density ratio (PVCDR) value and high peak current density (PCD) value in unity resonant tunneling electronic circuit (RTEC) element is developed in this paper. The PCD values and valley current density (VCD) values of the three NDR curves are all about 3.5 A and 0.8 A, respectively. All PV values of NDR curves are 0.40 V, 0.82 V, and 1.35 V, respectively. The VV values are 0.61 V, 1.07 V, and 1.69 V, respectively. All PVCDR values reach about 4.4 in three NDR curves. The PCD value of 3.5 A in triple PVCDR RTEC element is better than other resonant tunneling devices (RTD) elements. The high PVCDR value is concluded the lower VCD value about 0.8 A. The low VCD value is achieved by suitable selection of resistors in triple PVCDR RTEC element. The low PV value less than 1.35 V possesses low power dispersion in triple PVCDR RTEC element. The designed multiple value logical level (MVLL) system using triple PVCDR RTEC element provides equidistant logical level. The logical levels of MVLL system are about 0.2 V, 0.8 V, 1.5 V, and 2.2 V from low voltage to high voltage and then 2.2 V, 1.3 V, 0.8 V, and 0.2 V from high voltage back to low voltage in half cycle of sinusoid wave. The output level of four levels MVLL system is represented in 0.3 V, 1.1 V, 1.7 V, and 2.6 V, which satisfies the NMP condition of traditional two-bit system. The remarkable logical characteristic of improved MVLL system with paralleled capacitor are with four significant stable logical levels about 220 mV, 223 mV, 228 mV, and 230 mV. The stability and articulation of logical levels of improved MVLL system are outstanding. The average holding time of improved MVLL system is approximately 0.14 μs. The holding time of improved MVLL system is fourfold than of basic MVLL system. The function of additional capacitor in the improved MVLL system is successfully discovered.Keywords: Capacitance, Logical level, Constant current source
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1390197 Exergy Based Performance Analysis of a Gas Turbine Unit at Various Ambient Conditions
Authors: Idris A. Elfeituri
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This paper studies the effect of ambient conditions on the performance of a 285 MW gas turbine unit using the exergy concept. Based on the available exergy balance models developed, a computer program has been constructed to investigate the performance of the power plant under varying ambient temperature and relative humidity conditions. The variations of ambient temperature range from zero to 50 ºC and the relative humidity ranges from zero to 100%, while the unit load kept constant at 100% of the design load. The exergy destruction ratio and exergy efficiency are determined for each component and for the entire plant. The results show a moderate increase in the total exergy destruction ratio of the plant from 62.05% to 65.20%, while the overall exergy efficiency decrease from 38.2% to 34.8% as the ambient temperature increases from zero to 50 ºC at all relative humidity values. Furthermore, an increase of 1 ºC in ambient temperature leads to 0.063% increase in the total exergy destruction ratio and 0.07% decrease in the overall exergy efficiency. The relative humidity has a remarkable influence at higher ambient temperature values on the exergy destruction ratio of combustion chamber and on exergy loss ratio of the exhaust gas but almost no effect on the total exergy destruction ratio and overall exergy efficiency. At 50 ºC ambient temperature, the exergy destruction ratio of the combustion chamber increases from 30% to 52% while the exergy loss ratio of the exhaust gas decreases from 28% to 8% as the relative humidity increases from zero to 100%. In addition, exergy analysis reveals that the combustion chamber and exhaust gas are the main source of irreversibility in the gas turbine unit. It is also identified that the exergy efficiency and exergy destruction ratio are considerably dependent on the variations in the ambient air temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, the incorporation of the existing gas turbine plant with inlet air cooling and humidifier technologies should be considered seriously.
Keywords: Destruction, exergy, gas turbine, irreversibility, performance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 905196 Green Synthesized Iron Oxide Nanoparticles: A Nano-Nutrient for the Growth and Enhancement of Flax (Linum usitatissimum L.) Plant
Authors: G. Karunakaran, M. Jagathambal, N. Van Minh, E. Kolesnikov, A. Gusev, O. V. Zakharova, E. V. Scripnikova, E. D. Vishnyakova, D. Kuznetsov
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Iron oxide nanoparticles (Fe2O3NPs) are widely used in different applications due to its ecofriendly nature and biocompatibility. Hence, in this investigation, biosynthesized Fe2O3NPs influence on flax (Linum usitatissimum L.) plant was examined. The biosynthesized nanoparticles were found to be cubic phase which is confirmed by XRD analysis. FTIR analysis confirmed the presence of functional groups corresponding to the iron oxide nanoparticle. The elemental analysis also confirmed that the obtained nanoparticle is iron oxide nanoparticle. The scanning electron microscopy and the transmission electron microscopy confirm that the average particle size was around 56 nm. The effect of Fe2O3NPs on seed germination followed by biochemical analysis was carried out using standard methods. The results obtained after four days and 11 days of seed vigor studies showed that the seedling length (cm), average number of seedling with leaves, increase in root length (cm) was found to be enhanced on treatment with iron oxide nanoparticles when compared to control. A positive correlation was noticed with the dose of the nanoparticle and plant growth, which may be due to changes in metabolic activity. Hence, to evaluate the change in metabolic activity, peroxidase and catalase activities were estimated. It was clear from the observation that higher concentration of iron oxide nanoparticles (Fe2O3NPs 1000 mg/L) has enhanced peroxidase and catalase activities and in turn plant growth. Thus, this study clearly showed that biosynthesized iron oxide nanoparticles will be an effective nano-nutrient for agriculture applications.
Keywords: Catalase, fertilizer, iron oxide nanoparticles, Linum usitatissimum L., nano-nutrient, peroxidase.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1683195 Simplified Empirical Method for Predicting Liquefaction Potential and Its Application to Kaohsiung Areas in Taiwan
Authors: Darn H. Hsiao, Zhu-Yun Zheng
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Since Taiwan is located between the Eurasian and Filipino plates and earthquakes often thus occur. The coastal plains in western Taiwan are alluvial plains, and the soils of the alluvium are mostly from the Lao-Shan belt in the central mountainous area of southern Taiwan. It could come mostly from sand/shale and slate. The previous investigation found that the soils in the Kaohsiung area of southern Taiwan are mainly composed of slate, shale, quartz, low-plastic clay, silt, silty sand and so on. It can also be found from the past earthquakes that the soil in Kaohsiung is highly susceptible to soil subsidence due to liquefaction. Insufficient bearing capacity of building will cause soil liquefaction disasters. In this study, the boring drilling data from nine districts among the Love River Basin in the city center, and some factors affecting liquefaction include the content of fines (FC), standard penetration test N value (SPT N), the thickness of clay layer near ground-surface, and the thickness of possible liquefied soil were further discussed for liquefaction potential as well as groundwater level. The results show that the liquefaction potential is higher in the areas near the riverside, the backfill area, and the west area of the study area. This paper also uses the old paleo-geological map, soil particle distribution curve, compared with LPI map calculated from the analysis results. After all the parameters finally were studied for five sub zones in the Love River Basin by maximum-minimum method, it is found that both of standard penetration test N value and the thickness of the clay layer will be most influential.
Keywords: Liquefaction, western Taiwan, liquefaction potential map, factors influence high liquefaction potential areas, LPI analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 704194 Evaluation of Short-Term Load Forecasting Techniques Applied for Smart Micro Grids
Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone
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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.
Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, Gain.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2602193 Importance of Risk Assessment in Managers´ Decision-Making Process
Authors: Mária Hudáková, Vladimír Míka, Katarína Hollá
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Making decisions is the core of management and a result of conscious activities which is under way in a particular environment and concrete conditions. The managers decide about the goals, procedures and about the methods how to respond to the changes and to the problems which developed. Their decisions affect the effectiveness, quality, economy and the overall successfulness in every organisation. In spite of this fact, they do not pay sufficient attention to the individual steps of the decision-making process. They emphasise more how to cope with the individual methods and techniques of making decisions and forget about the way how to cope with analysing the problem or assessing the individual solution variants. In many cases, the underestimating of the analytical phase can lead to an incorrect assessment of the problem and this can then negatively influence its further solution. Based on our analysis of the theoretical solutions by individual authors who are dealing with this area and the realised research in Slovakia and also abroad we can recognise an insufficient interest of the managers to assess the risks in the decision-making process. The goal of this paper is to assess the risks in the managers´ decision-making process relating to the conditions of the environment, to the subject’s activity (the manager’s personality), to the insufficient assessment of individual variants for solving the problems but also to situations when the arisen problem is not solved. The benefit of this paper is the effort to increase the need of the managers to deal with the risks during the decision-making process. It is important for every manager to assess the risks in his/her decision-making process and to make efforts to take such decisions which reflect the basic conditions, states and development of the environment in the best way and especially for the managers´ decisions to contribute to achieving the determined goals of the organisation as effectively as possible.
Keywords: Risk, decision-making, manager, process, analysis, source of risk.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1799192 Anti-Aging Effects of Retinol and Alpha Hydroxy Acid on Elastin Fibers of Artificially Photo-Aged Human Dermal Fibroblast Cell Lines
Authors: M. Jarrar, S. Behl, N. Shaheen, A. Fatima, R. Nasab
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Skin aging is a slow multifactorial process influenced by both internal as well as external factors. Ultra-violet radiations (UV), diet, smoking and personal habits are the most common environmental factors that affect skin aging. Fat contents and fibrous proteins as collagen and elastin are core internal structural components. The direct influence of UV on elastin integrity and health is central on aging of skin especially by time. The deposition of abnormal elastic material is a major marker in a photo-aged skin. Searching for compounds that may protect against cutaneous photodamage is exceedingly valued. Retinoids and alpha hydroxy acids have been endorsed by some researchers as possible candidates for protecting and or repairing the effect of UV damaged skin. For consolidating a better system of anti- and protective effects of such anti-aging agents, we evaluated the combinatory effects of various dosages of lactic acid and retinol on the dermal fibroblast’s elastin levels exposed to UV. The UV exposed cells showed significant reduction in the elastin levels. A combination of drugs with a higher concentration of lactic acid (30 -35 mM) and a lower concentration of retinol (10-15mg/mL) showed to work better in maintaining elastin concentration in UV exposed cells. We assume this preservation could be the result of increased tropo-elastin gene expression stimulated by retinol whereas lactic acid probably repaired the UV irradiated damage by enhancing the amount and integrity of the elastin fibers.
Keywords: Alpha Hydroxy Acid, Elastin, Retinol, Ultraviolet radiations.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3094191 Volatile Profile of Monofloral Honeys Produced by Stingless Bees from the Brazilian Semiarid Region
Authors: Ana Caroliny Vieira da Costa, Marta Suely Madruga
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In Brazil, there is a diverse fauna of social bees, known by Meliponinae or native stingless bees. These bees are important for providing a differentiated product, especially regarding unique sweetness, flavor, and aroma. However, information about the volatile fraction in honey produced by stingless native bees is still lacking. The aim of this work was to characterize the volatile compound profile of monofloral honey produced by jandaíra bees (Melipona subnitida Ducke) which used chanana (Turnera ulmifolia L.), malícia (Mimosa quadrivalvis) and algaroba (Prosopis juliflora (Sw.) DC) as their floral sources; and by uruçu bees (Melipona scutellaris Latrelle), which used chanana (Turnera ulmifolia L.), malícia (Mimosa quadrivalvis) and angico (Anadenanthera colubrina) as their floral sources. The volatiles were extracted using HS-SPME-GC-MS technique. The condition for the extraction was: equilibration time of 15 minutes, extraction time of 45 min and extraction temperature of 45°C. Through the results obtained, it was observed that the floral source had a strong influence on the aroma profile of the honey under evaluation, since the chemical profiles were marked primarily by the classes of terpenes, norisoprenoids, and benzene derivatives. Furthermore, the results obtained suggest the existence of differentiator compounds and potential markers for the botanical sources evaluated, such as linalool, D-sylvestrene, rose oxide and benzenethanol. These reports represent a valuable contribution to certifying the authenticity of those honey and provides for the first time, information intended for the construction of chemical knowledge of the aroma and flavor that characterize these honey produced in Brazil.
Keywords: Aroma, honey, semiarid, stingless, volatiles.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1446190 Design of a Hand-Held, Clamp-on, Leakage Current Sensor for High Voltage Direct Current Insulators
Authors: Morné Roman, Robert van Zyl, Nishanth Parus, Nishal Mahatho
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Leakage current monitoring for high voltage transmission line insulators is of interest as a performance indicator. Presently, to the best of our knowledge, there is no commercially available, clamp-on type, non-intrusive device for measuring leakage current on energised high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission line insulators. The South African power utility, Eskom, is investigating the development of such a hand-held sensor for two important applications; first, for continuous real-time condition monitoring of HVDC line insulators and, second, for use by live line workers to determine if it is safe to work on energised insulators. In this paper, a DC leakage current sensor based on magnetic field sensing techniques is developed. The magnetic field sensor used in the prototype can also detect alternating current up to 5 MHz. The DC leakage current prototype detects the magnetic field associated with the current flowing on the surface of the insulator. Preliminary HVDC leakage current measurements are performed on glass insulators. The results show that the prototype can accurately measure leakage current in the specified current range of 1-200 mA. The influence of external fields from the HVDC line itself on the leakage current measurements is mitigated through a differential magnetometer sensing technique. Thus, the developed sensor can perform measurements on in-service HVDC insulators. The research contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a sensor to measure leakage current on energised HVDC insulators non-intrusively. This sensor can also be used by live line workers to inform them whether or not it is safe to perform maintenance on energized insulators.
Keywords: Direct current, insulator, leakage current, live line, magnetic field, sensor, transmission lines.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 912189 The Relationships between Market Orientation and Competitiveness of Companies in Banking Sector
Authors: P. Jangl, M. Mikuláštík
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The objective of the paper is to measure and compare market orientation of Swiss and Czech banks, as well as examine statistically the degree of influence it has on competitiveness of the institutions. The analysis of market orientation is based on the collecting, analysis and correct interpretation of the data. Descriptive analysis of market orientation describe current situation. Research of relation of competitiveness and market orientation in the sector of big international banks is suggested with the expectation of existence of a strong relationship. Partially, the work served as reconfirmation of suitability of classic methodologies to measurement of banks’ market orientation.
Two types of data were gathered. Firstly, by measuring subjectively perceived market orientation of a company and secondly, by quantifying its competitiveness. All data were collected from a sample of small, mid-sized and large banks. We used numerical secondary character data from the international statistical financial Bureau Van Dijk’s BANKSCOPE database.
Statistical analysis led to the following results. Assuming classical market orientation measures to be scientifically justified, Czech banks are statistically less market-oriented than Swiss banks. Secondly, among small Swiss banks, which are not broadly internationally active, small relationship exist between market orientation measures and market share based competitiveness measures. Thirdly, among all Swiss banks, a strong relationship exists between market orientation measures and market share based competitiveness measures. Above results imply existence of a strong relation of this measure in sector of big international banks. A strong statistical relationship has been proven to exist between market orientation measures and equity/total assets ratio in Switzerland.
Keywords: Market Orientation, Competitiveness, Marketing Strategy, Measurement of Market Orientation, Relation between Market Orientation and Competitiveness, Banking Sector.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2780188 Evaluating the Perception of Roma in Europe through Social Network Analysis
Authors: Giulia I. Pintea
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The Roma people are a nomadic ethnic group native to India, and they are one of the most prevalent minorities in Europe. In the past, Roma were enslaved and they were imprisoned in concentration camps during the Holocaust; today, Roma are subject to hate crimes and are denied access to healthcare, education, and proper housing. The aim of this project is to analyze how the public perception of the Roma people may be influenced by antiziganist and pro-Roma institutions in Europe. In order to carry out this project, we used social network analysis to build two large social networks: The antiziganist network, which is composed of institutions that oppress and racialize Roma, and the pro-Roma network, which is composed of institutions that advocate for and protect Roma rights. Measures of centrality, density, and modularity were obtained to determine which of the two social networks is exerting the greatest influence on the public’s perception of Roma in European societies. Furthermore, data on hate crimes on Roma were gathered from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). We analyzed the trends in hate crimes on Roma for several European countries for 2009-2015 in order to see whether or not there have been changes in the public’s perception of Roma, thus helping us evaluate which of the two social networks has been more influential. Overall, the results suggest that there is a greater and faster exchange of information in the pro-Roma network. However, when taking the hate crimes into account, the impact of the pro-Roma institutions is ambiguous, due to differing patterns among European countries, suggesting that the impact of the pro-Roma network is inconsistent. Despite antiziganist institutions having a slower flow of information, the hate crime patterns also suggest that the antiziganist network has a higher impact on certain countries, which may be due to institutions outside the political sphere boosting the spread of antiziganist ideas and information to the European public.
Keywords: Applied mathematics, oppression, Roma people, social network analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 985187 Influence of Environment-Friendly Organic Wastes on the Properties of Sandy Soil under Growing Zea mays L. in Arid Regions
Authors: Mohamed Rashad, Mohamed Hafez, Mohamed Emran, Emad Aboukila, Ibrahim Nassar
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Environment-friendly organic wastes of Brewers' spent grain, a byproduct of the brewing process, have recently used as soil amendment to improve soil fertility and plant production. In this work, treatments of 1% (T1) and 2% (T2) of spent grains, 1% (C1) and 2% (C2) of compost and mix of both sources (C1T1) were used and compared to the control for growing Zea mays L. on sandy soil under arid Mediterranean climate. Soils were previously incubated at 65% saturation capacity for a month. The most relevant soil physical and chemical parameters were analysed. Water holding capacity and soil organic matter (OM) increased significantly along the treatments with the highest values in T2. Soil pH decreased along the treatments and the lowest pH was in C1T1. Bicarbonate decreased by 69% in C1T1 comparing to control. Total nitrogen (TN) and available P varied significantly among all treatments and T2, C1T1 and C2 treatments increased 25, 17 and 11 folds in TN and 1.2, 0.6 and 0.3 folds in P, respectively related to control. Available K showed the highest values in C1T1. Soil micronutrients increased significantly along all treatments with the highest values in T2. After corn germination, significant variation was observed in the velocity of germination coefficients (VGC) among all treatments in the order of C1T1>T2>T1>C2>C1>control. The highest records of final germination and germination index were in C1T1 and T2. The spent grains may compensate deficiencies of macro and micronutrients in newly reclaimed sandy soils without adverse effects to sustain crop production with a rider that excessive or continuous use need to be circumvented.Keywords: Spent grain, compost, micronutrients, macronutrients, water holding capacity, plant growth.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1139186 Mechanical Behavior of Recycled Pet Fiber Reinforced Concrete Matrix
Authors: Comingstarful Marthong, Deba Kumar Sarma
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Concrete is strong in compression however weak in tension. The tensile strength as well as ductile property of concrete could be improved by addition of short dispersed fibers. Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) fiber obtained from hand cutting or mechanical slitting of plastic sheets generally used as discrete reinforcement in substitution of steel fiber. PET fiber obtained from the former process is in the form of straight slit sheet pattern that impart weaker mechanical bonding behavior in the concrete matrix. To improve the limitation of straight slit sheet fiber the present study considered two additional geometry of fiber namely (a) flattened end slit sheet and (b) deformed slit sheet. The mix for plain concrete was design for a compressive strength of 25 MPa at 28 days curing time with a watercement ratio of 0.5. Cylindrical and beam specimens with 0.5% fibers volume fraction and without fibers were cast to investigate the influence of geometry on the mechanical properties of concrete. The performance parameters mainly studied include flexural strength, splitting tensile strength, compressive strength and ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV). Test results show that geometry of fiber has a marginal effect on the workability of concrete. However, it plays a significant role in achieving a good compressive and tensile strength of concrete. Further, significant improvement in term of flexural and energy dissipation capacity were observed from other fibers as compared to the straight slit sheet pattern. Also, the inclusion of PET fiber improved the ability in absorbing energy in the post-cracking state of the specimen as well as no significant porous structures.Keywords: Concrete matrix, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) fibers, mechanical bonding, mechanical properties, UPV.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2052185 Influence of Drought on Yield and Yield Components in White Bean
Authors: Gholamreza Habibi
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In order to study seed yield and seed yield components in bean under reduced irrigation condition and assessment drought tolerance of genotypes, 15 lines of White beans were evaluated in two separate RCB design with 3 replications under stress and non stress conditions. Analysis of variance showed that there were significant differences among varieties in terms of traits under study, indicating the existence of genetic variation among varieties. The results indicate that drought stress reduced seed yield, number of seed per plant, biological yield and number of pod in White been. In non stress condition, yield was highly correlated with the biological yield, whereas in stress condition it was highly correlated with harvest index. Results of stepwise regression showed that, selection can we done based on, biological yield, harvest index, number of seed per pod, seed length, 100 seed weight. Result of path analysis showed that the highest direct effect, being positive, was related to biological yield in non stress and to harvest index in stress conditions. Factor analysis were accomplished in stress and nonstress condition a, there were 4 factors that explained more than 76 percent of total variations. We used several selection indices such as Stress Susceptibility Index ( SSI ), Geometric Mean Productivity ( GMP ), Mean Productivity ( MP ), Stress Tolerance Index ( STI ) and Tolerance Index ( TOL ) to study drought tolerance of genotypes, we found that the best Stress Index for selection tolerance genotypes were STI, GMP and MP were the greatest correlations between these Indices and seed yield under stress and non stress conditions. In classification of genotypes base on phenotypic characteristics, using cluster analysis ( UPGMA ), all allels classified in 5 separate groups in stress and non stress conditions.Keywords: Cluster analysis, factor analysis, path analysis, selection index, White bean
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2140184 Influence of Internal Topologies on Components Produced by Selective Laser Melting: Numerical Analysis
Authors: C. Malça, P. Gonçalves, N. Alves, A. Mateus
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Regardless of the manufacturing process used, subtractive or additive, material, purpose and application, produced components are conventionally solid mass with more or less complex shape depending on the production technology selected. Aspects such as reducing the weight of components, associated with the low volume of material required and the almost non-existent material waste, speed and flexibility of production and, primarily, a high mechanical strength combined with high structural performance, are competitive advantages in any industrial sector, from automotive, molds, aviation, aerospace, construction, pharmaceuticals, medicine and more recently in human tissue engineering. Such features, properties and functionalities are attained in metal components produced using the additive technique of Rapid Prototyping from metal powders commonly known as Selective Laser Melting (SLM), with optimized internal topologies and varying densities. In order to produce components with high strength and high structural and functional performance, regardless of the type of application, three different internal topologies were developed and analyzed using numerical computational tools. The developed topologies were numerically submitted to mechanical compression and four point bending testing. Finite Element Analysis results demonstrate how different internal topologies can contribute to improve mechanical properties, even with a high degree of porosity relatively to fully dense components. Results are very promising not only from the point of view of mechanical resistance, but especially through the achievement of considerable variation in density without loss of structural and functional high performance.
Keywords: Additive Manufacturing, Internal topologies, Porosity, Rapid Prototyping, Selective Laser Melting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2362183 Mental Illness Stigma and Causal Beliefs: Among Potential Mental Health Professionals
Authors: Josephine S. Larkings, Patricia M. Brown
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Mental health professionals views about mental illness is an important issue which has not received enough attention. The negative stigma associated with mental illness can have many negative consequences. Unfortunately, health professionals working with the mentally ill can also exhibit stigma. It has been suggested that causal explanations or beliefs around the causes of mental illness may influence stigma. This study aims to gain a greater insight into stigma through examining stigma among potential mental health professionals. Firstly, results found that potential mental health professionals had relatively low social distance t(205) = -3.62, p <.001. Secondly, an ANOVA indicated that the participants endorsed some causal beliefs more than others, F(1.82, 311.55) = 88.47, p < .001, partial n2 = .34. Moreover, participants endorsed the biological causal explanation the most. Thirdly, results indicated that combined contact (quality and quantity) and causal beliefs (biological, psychological, and environmental) explained a significant proportion of the variance in stigma, R2 = .35, adjusted R2 = .33, F(5, 153) = 16.66, p < .001. Quality of contact was the strongest predictor, with greater quality of contact associated with lower desired social distance. Also, quantity of contact, psychological and environmental causal explanations were also significant predictors of stigma. Greater quantity of contact and higher levels of environmental causal beliefs were associated with lower levels of stigma while psychological causal explanations were associated with higher levels of stigma. A series of multiple regression analyses were conducted that showed the three causal beliefs had different impacts on four factors of stigma (Authoritarian, Benevolence, Social restrictiveness, and Community mental health ideology). These analyses showed that psychological causal beliefs had the most positive impact. More research is required on this topic as it has important implications to the treatment and recovery for people suffering from mental illness.Keywords: Causal beliefs, contact, health professionals, mental illness stigma, social distance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2075182 Tokyo Skyscrapers: Technologically Advanced Structures in Seismic Areas
Authors: J. Szolomicki, H. Golasz-Szolomicka
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The architectural and structural analysis of selected high-rise buildings in Tokyo is presented in this paper. The capital of Japan is the most densely populated city in the world and moreover is located in one of the most active seismic zones. The combination of these factors has resulted in the creation of sophisticated designs and innovative engineering solutions, especially in the field of design and construction of high-rise buildings. The foreign architectural studios (as, for Jean Nouvel, Kohn Pedesen Associates, Skidmore, Owings & Merill) which specialize in the designing of skyscrapers, played a major role in the development of technological ideas and architectural forms for such extraordinary engineering structures. Among the projects completed by them, there are examples of high-rise buildings that set precedents for future development. An essential aspect which influences the design of high-rise buildings is the necessity to take into consideration their dynamic reaction to earthquakes and counteracting wind vortices. The need to control motions of these buildings, induced by the force coming from earthquakes and wind, led to the development of various methods and devices for dissipating energy which occur during such phenomena. Currently, Japan is a global leader in seismic technologies which safeguard seismic influence on high-rise structures. Due to these achievements the most modern skyscrapers in Tokyo are able to withstand earthquakes with a magnitude of over seven degrees at the Richter scale. Damping devices applied are of a passive, which do not require additional power supply or active one which suppresses the reaction with the input of extra energy. In recent years also hybrid dampers were used, with an additional active element to improve the efficiency of passive damping.
Keywords: Core structure, damping systems, high-rise buildings.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1017181 CFD Study of Subcooled Boiling Flow at Elevated Pressure Using a Mechanistic Wall Heat Partitioning Model
Authors: Machimontorn Promtong, Sherman C. P. Cheung, Guan H. Yeoh, Sara Vahaji, Jiyuan Tu
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The wide range of industrial applications involved with boiling flows promotes the necessity of establishing fundamental knowledge in boiling flow phenomena. For this purpose, a number of experimental and numerical researches have been performed to elucidate the underlying physics of this flow. In this paper, the improved wall boiling models, implemented on ANSYS CFX 14.5, were introduced to study subcooled boiling flow at elevated pressure. At the heated wall boundary, the Fractal model, Force balance approach and Mechanistic frequency model are given for predicting the nucleation site density, bubble departure diameter, and bubble departure frequency. The presented wall heat flux partitioning closures were modified to consider the influence of bubble sliding along the wall before the lift-off, which usually happens in the flow boiling. The simulation was performed based on the Two-fluid model, where the standard k-ω SST model was selected for turbulence modelling. Existing experimental data at around 5 bars were chosen to evaluate the accuracy of the presented mechanistic approach. The void fraction and Interfacial Area Concentration (IAC) are in good agreement with the experimental data. However, the predicted bubble velocity and Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD) are over-predicted. This over-prediction may be caused by consideration of only dispersed and spherical bubbles in the simulations. In the future work, the important physical mechanisms of bubbles, such as merging and shrinking during sliding on the heated wall will be incorporated into this mechanistic model to enhance its capability for a wider range of flow prediction.
Keywords: CFD, mechanistic model, subcooled boiling flow, two-fluid model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1270180 The Impact of Gender Differences on the Expressions of Refusal in Jordanian Arabic
Authors: Hanan Yousef, Nisreen Naji Al-Khawaldeh
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The present study investigates the use of the expression of refusal by native speakers of Jordanian Arabic (NSsJA) in different social situations (i.e. invitations, suggestions, and offers). It also investigates the influence of gender on the refusal realization patterns within the Jordanian culture to provide a better insight into the relation between situations, strategies and gender in the Jordanian culture. To that end, a group of 70 participants, including 35 male and 35 female students from different departments at the Hashemite University (HU) participated in this study using mixed methods (i.e. Discourse Completion Test (DCT), interviews and naturally occurring data). Data were analyzed in light of a developed coding scheme. The results showed that NSsJA preferred indirect strategies which mitigate the interaction such as "excuse, reason and, explanation" strategy more than other strategies which aggravate the interaction such as "face-threatening" strategy. Moreover, the analysis of this study has revealed a considerable impact of gender on the use of linguistic forms expressing refusal among NSsJA. Significant differences in the results of the Chi-square test relating the effect of participants' gender indicate that both males and females were conscious of the gender of their interlocutors. The findings provide worthwhile insights into the relation amongst types of communicative acts and the rapport between people in social interaction. They assert that refusal should not be labeled as face threatening act since it does not always pose a threat in some cases especially where refusal is expressed among friends, relatives and family members. They highlight some distinctive culture-specific features of the communicative acts of refusal.
Keywords: Speech act, refusals, semantic formulas, politeness, Jordanian Arabic, mixed methodology, gender.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 943179 Experimental and Theoretical Investigation of Rough Rice Drying in Infrared-assisted Hot Air Dryer Using Artificial Neural Network
Authors: D. Zare, H. Naderi, A. A. Jafari
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Drying characteristics of rough rice (variety of lenjan) with an initial moisture content of 25% dry basis (db) was studied in a hot air dryer assisted by infrared heating. Three arrival air temperatures (30, 40 and 500C) and four infrared radiation intensities (0, 0.2 , 0.4 and 0.6 W/cm2) and three arrival air speeds (0.1, 0.15 and 0.2 m.s-1) were studied. Bending strength of brown rice kernel, percentage of cracked kernels and time of drying were measured and evaluated. The results showed that increasing the drying arrival air temperature and radiation intensity of infrared resulted decrease in drying time. High bending strength and low percentage of cracked kernel was obtained when paddy was dried by hot air assisted infrared dryer. Between this factors and their interactive effect were a significant difference (p<0.01). An intensity level of 0.2 W/cm2 was found to be optimum for radiation drying. Furthermore, in the present study, the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for predicting the moisture content during drying (output parameter for ANN modeling) was investigated. Infrared Radiation intensity, drying air temperature, arrival air speed and drying time were considered as input parameters for the model. An ANN model with two hidden layers with 8 and 14 neurons were selected for studying the influence of transfer functions and training algorithms. The results revealed that a network with the Tansig (hyperbolic tangent sigmoid) transfer function and trainlm (Levenberg-Marquardt) back propagation algorithm made the most accurate predictions for the paddy drying system. Mean square error (MSE) was calculated and found that the random errors were within and acceptable range of ±5% with coefficient of determination (R2) of 99%.
Keywords: Rough rice, Infrared-hot air, Artificial Neural Network
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1826178 Copper Price Prediction Model for Various Economic Situations
Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin
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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.
Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 187