Search results for: bit error rate.

Authors: J. R. Wang, S. W. Chen, Y. Chiang, W. S. Hsu, J. H. Yang, Y. S. Tseng, C. Shih

Abstract:

In this research, the HABIT analysis methodology was established for Maanshan nuclear power plant (NPP). The Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR), reports, and other data were used in this study. To evaluate the control room habitability under the CO₂ storage burst, the HABIT methodology was used to perform this analysis. The HABIT result was below the R.G. 1.78 failure criteria. This indicates that Maanshan NPP habitability can be maintained. Additionally, the sensitivity study of the parameters (wind speed, atmospheric stability classification, air temperature, and control room intake flow rate) was also performed in this research.

Keywords: PWR, HABIT, habitability, Maanshan.

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Authors: Y. Chiang, W. Y. Li, J. R. Wang, S. W. Chen, W. S. Hsu, J. H. Yang, Y. S. Tseng, C. Shih

Abstract:

In this research, the HABIT code was used to estimate the concentration under the CO₂ and H₂SO₄ storage burst conditions for Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP). The Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) and reports were used in this research. In addition, to evaluate the control room habitability for these cases, the HABIT analysis results were compared with the R.G. 1.78 failure criteria. The comparison results show that the HABIT results are below the criteria. Additionally, some sensitivity studies (stability classification, wind speed and control room intake rate) were performed in this study.

Keywords: BWR, HABIT, habitability, KUOSHENG.

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Authors: F. Barzegar, M. H. Sheikhi

Abstract:

In the present work we model a Multiquantum Well structure Separate Absorption and Charge Multiplication Avalanche Photodiode (MQW-SACM-APD), while the Absorption region coincide with the MQW. We consider the nonuniformity of electric field using split-step method in active region. This model is based on the carrier rate equations in the different regions of the device. Using the model we obtain the photocurrent, and dark current. As an example, InGaAs/InP SACM-APD and MQW-SACM-APD are simulated. There is a good agreement between the simulation and experimental results.

Keywords: Avalanche Photodiode, Physical Model, MultiquantumWell, Split Step Method.

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Authors: Khaled E. A. Negm

Abstract:

A neuron can emit spikes in an irregular time basis and by averaging over a certain time window one would ignore a lot of information. It is known that in the context of fast information processing there is no sufficient time to sample an average firing rate of the spiking neurons. The present work shows that the spiking neurons are capable of computing the radial basis functions by storing the relevant information in the neurons' delays. One of the fundamental findings of the this research also is that when using overlapping receptive fields to encode the data patterns it increases the network-s clustering capacity. The clustering algorithm that is discussed here is interesting from computer science and neuroscience point of view as well as from a perspective.

Keywords: Temporal Neurons, RBF Recognition, Perturbation, On Line Recognition.

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Authors: Gunasekaran Raja, Ramkumar Jayaraman

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider CCL-N (Cooperative Cross Layer Network) topology based on the cross layer (both centralized and distributed) environment to form network communities. Various performance metrics related to the IEEE 802.16 networks are discussed to design CCL-N Topology. In CCL-N topology, nodes are classified as master nodes (Master Base Station [MBS]) and serving nodes (Relay Station [RS]). Nodes communities are organized based on the networking terminologies. Based on CCL-N Topology, various simulation analyses for both transparent and non-transparent relays are tabulated and throughput efficiency is calculated. Weighted load balancing problem plays a challenging role in IEEE 802.16 network. CoTS (Concurrent Transmission Scheduling) Scheme is formulated in terms of three aspects – transmission mechanism based on identical communities, different communities and identical node communities. CoTS scheme helps in identifying the weighted load balancing problem. Based on the analytical results, modularity value is inversely proportional to that of the error value. The modularity value plays a key role in solving the CoTS problem based on hop count. The transmission mechanism for identical node community has no impact since modularity value is same for all the network groups. In this paper three aspects of communities based on the modularity value which helps in solving the problem of weighted load balancing and CoTS are discussed.

Keywords: Cross layer network topology, concurrent scheduling, modularity value, network communities and weighted load balancing.

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Authors: M. Azadi, N. Tahouni, M. H. Panjeshahi

Abstract:

A techno-economic evaluation for efficient use of energy in a large scale industrial plant of methanol is carried out. This assessment is based on integration of a gas turbine with an existing plant of methanol in which the outlet gas products of exothermic reactor is expanded to power generation. Also, it is decided that methanol production rate is constant through addition of power generation system to the existing methanol plant. Having incorporated a gas turbine with the existing plant, the economic results showed total investment of MUSD 16.9, energy saving of 3.6 MUSD/yr with payback period of approximately 4.7 years.

Keywords: Energy saving, Gas turbine, Methanol, Power generation.

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Authors: Essam Al Daoud

Abstract:

To improve the classification rate of the face recognition, features combination and a novel non-linear kernel are proposed. The feature vector concatenates three different radius of local binary patterns and Gabor wavelet features. Gabor features are the mean, standard deviation and the skew of each scaling and orientation parameter. The aim of the new kernel is to incorporate the power of the kernel methods with the optimal balance between the features. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, numerous methods are tested by using four datasets, which are consisting of various emotions, orientations, configuration, expressions and lighting conditions. Empirical results show the superiority of the proposed technique when compared to other methods.

Keywords: Face recognition, Gabor wavelet, LBP, Non-linearkerner

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Authors: Muhammad Hammad Lakhvi

Abstract:

Islam has a general principle of increase in population. But the Muslims are equally obliged to take care of health, education and the provisions etc. for their offspring and wives in the best possible way. The Muslims would have to regulate and manage the number of children, if any situation affects their duties regarding their wives or children. Islam accomplishes permissibility of temporary blockade in human fertility if someone faces any problem regarding health of mother or children. During the life of the Holy Prophet (SAW), Azl (coitus interruptus) was the only way for temporary spacing between the children. In technologically developed environment, the same can be resort through some advanced methodology or instrument of temporary blockade. Solid grounds are available in Islam that the fertility rate should be managed if any of the aspect of human quality is being affected.

Keywords: Islam, Fertility Regulations, Muslims, Qur'an

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Authors: Rusliza Ahmad, Harun Budin

Abstract:

This paper studies the effect of time delay on stability of mutualism population model with limited resources for both species. First, the stability of the model without time delay is analyzed. The model is then improved by considering a time delay in the mechanism of the growth rate of the population. We analyze the effect of time delay on the stability of the stable equilibrium point. Result showed that the time delay can induce instability of the stable equilibrium point, bifurcation and stability switches.

Keywords: Bifurcation, Delay margin, Mutualism population model, Time delay

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Authors: Miguel A. Gómez , Enrique Hilario , Francisco J. Alvarez , Elena Gastiasoro , Antonia Alvarez, Juan L. Larrabe

Abstract:

Total liquid ventilation can support gas exchange in animal models of lung injury. Clinical application awaits further technical improvements and performance verification. Our aim was to develop a liquid ventilator, able to deliver accurate tidal volumes, and a computerized system for measuring lung mechanics. The computer-assisted, piston-driven respirator controlled ventilatory parameters that were displayed and modified on a real-time basis. Pressure and temperature transducers along with a lineal displacement controller provided the necessary signals to calculate lung mechanics. Ten newborn lambs (<6 days old) with respiratory failure induced by lung lavage, were monitored using the system. Electromechanical, hydraulic and data acquisition/analysis components of the ventilator were developed and tested in animals with respiratory failure. All pulmonary signals were collected synchronized in time, displayed in real-time, and archived on digital media. The total mean error (due to transducers, A/D conversion, amplifiers, etc.) was less than 5% compared to calibrated signals. Improvements in gas exchange and lung mechanics were observed during liquid ventilation, without impairment of cardiovascular profiles. The total liquid ventilator maintained accurate control of tidal volumes and the sequencing of inspiration/expiration. The computerized system demonstrated its ability to monitor in vivo lung mechanics, providing valuable data for early decision-making.

Keywords: immature lamb, perfluorocarbon, pressure-limited, total liquid ventilation, ventilator; volume-controlled

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Authors: N.M. Anas, S.K.S. Yusoff, R. Mohamad

Abstract:

A modified Saleh-Valenzuela channel model has been adapted for Ultra Wideband (UWB) system. The suggested realistic channel is assessed by its distribution of fading amplitude and time of arrivals. Furthermore, the propagation characteristic has been distinct into four channel models, namely CM 1 to 4. Each are differentiate in terms of cluster arrival rates, rays arrival rate within each cluster and its respective constant decay rates. This paper described the multiband OFDM system performance simulates under these multipath conditions. Simulation work described in this paper is based on WiMedia ECMA-368 standard, which has been deployed for practical implementation of low cost and low power UWB devices.

Keywords: Log-Normal, Multiband OFDM, Saleh-Valenzuela

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Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Moses Macalinao

Abstract:

Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until 12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation. In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to 12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than 9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential extreme flood are indicated.

Keywords: Neural Network, Fuzzy, River, Forecasting

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Authors: Boncho G. Bonev, Kliment N. Angelov, Emil S. Altimirski

Abstract:

In this paper, the link quality in SHF and EHF ranges are studied. In order to achieve high data rate higher frequencies must be used – centimeter waves (SHF), millimeter waves (EHF) or optical range. However, there are significant problem when a radio link work in that diapason – rain attenuation and attenuation in earth-s atmosphere. Based on statistical rain rates data for Bulgaria, the link availability can be determined, depending on the working frequency, the path length and the Power Budget of the link. For the calculations of rain attenuation and atmosphere-s attenuation the ITU recommendations are used.

Keywords: rain attenuation, atmospheric gaseous attenuation, link availability, link breaking probability

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Authors: G. Spada, E. Gavini, P. Giunchedi

Abstract:

Aim of this work was to compare the efficacy of two loading methods of proteins onto polymeric nanocarriers: adsorption and encapsulation methods. Preliminary studies of protein loading were done using Bovine Serum Albumin (BSA) as model protein. Nanocarriers were prepared starting from polylactic co-glycolic acid (PLGA) polymer; production methods used are two different variants of emulsion evaporation method. Nanoparticles obtained were analyzed in terms of dimensions by Dynamic Light Scattering and Loading Efficiency of BSA by Bradford Assay. Loaded nanoparticles were then submitted to in-vitro protein dissolution test in order to study the effect of the delivery system on the release rate of the protein.

Keywords: Drug delivery, nanoparticles, PLGA, proteinadsorption, protein encapsulation.

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Authors: Mojca Ciglaric, Andrej Krevl, Matjaž Pancur, Tone Vidmar

Abstract:

P2P Networks are highly dynamic structures since their nodes – peer users keep joining and leaving continuously. In the paper, we study the effects of network change rates on query routing efficiency. First we describe some background and an abstract system model. The chosen routing technique makes use of cached metadata from previous answer messages and also employs a mechanism for broken path detection and metadata maintenance. Several metrics are used to show that the protocol behaves quite well even with high rate of node departures, but above a certain threshold it literally breaks down and exhibits considerable efficiency degradation.

Keywords: Network dynamics, overlay network, P2P system, routing efficiency.

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Authors: N. Todorovic, I. Bikit, J. Nikolov, S. Forkapic, D. Mrdja, S. Todorovic

Abstract:

Interventional cardiologists are at greater risk from radiation exposure as a result of the procedures they undertake than most other medical specialists. A study was performed to evaluate operator dose during interventional cardiology procedures and to establish methods of operator dose reduction with a radiation protective device. Different procedure technique and use of protective tools can explain big difference in the annual equivalent dose received by the professionals. Strategies to prevent and monitor radiation exposure, advanced protective shielding and effective radiation monitoring methods should be applied.

Keywords: absorbed dose rate measurements, annualequivalent dose, protective device.

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Authors: Ude N. Callistus, Amulu F. Ndidi, Onukwuli D. Okechukwu, Amulu E. Patrick

Abstract:

Power law approximation was used in this study to evaluate the reaction orders of calcium oxide, CaO catalyzed transesterification of refined cottonseed oil and methanol. The kinetics study was carried out at temperatures of 45, 55 and 65 ^oC. The kinetic parameters such as reaction order 2.02 and rate constant 2.8 hr^-1g^-1cat, obtained at the temperature of 65 ^oC best fitted the kinetic model. The activation energy, Ea obtained was 127.744 KJ/mol. The results indicate that the transesterification reaction of the refined cottonseed oil using calcium oxide catalyst is approximately second order reaction.

Keywords: Refined cottonseed oil, transesterification, CaO, heterogeneous catalysts, kinetic model.

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Authors: M. Karimpour, L. Hitihamillage, N. Elkhoury, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

Abstract:

Rail transport authorities around the world have been facing a significant challenge when predicting rail infrastructure maintenance work for a long period of time. Generally, maintenance monitoring and prediction is conducted manually. With the restrictions in economy, the rail transport authorities are in pursuit of improved modern methods, which can provide precise prediction of rail maintenance time and location. The expectation from such a method is to develop models to minimize the human error that is strongly related to manual prediction. Such models will help them in understanding how the track degradation occurs overtime under the change in different conditions (e.g. rail load, rail type, rail profile). They need a well-structured technique to identify the precise time that rail tracks fail in order to minimize the maintenance cost/time and secure the vehicles. The rail track characteristics that have been collected over the years will be used in developing rail track degradation prediction models. Since these data have been collected in large volumes and the data collection is done both electronically and manually, it is possible to have some errors. Sometimes these errors make it impossible to use them in prediction model development. This is one of the major drawbacks in rail track degradation prediction. An accurate model can play a key role in the estimation of the long-term behavior of rail tracks. Accurate models increase the track safety and decrease the cost of maintenance in long term. In this research, a short review of rail track degradation prediction models has been discussed before estimating rail track degradation for the curve sections of Melbourne tram track system using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.

Keywords: ANFIS, MGT, Prediction modeling, rail track degradation.

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Authors: Branislav Vuksanović, Dragana Nikolić

Abstract:

This paper describes the implementation and testing of a multichannel active noise control system (ANCS) based on the filtered-inverse LMS (FILMS) algorithm. The FILMS algorithm is derived from the well-known filtered-x LMS (FXLMS) algorithm with the aim to improve the rate of convergence of the multichannel FXLMS algorithm and to reduce its computational load. Laboratory setup and techniques used to implement this system efficiently are described in this paper. Experiments performed in order to test the performance of the FILMS algorithm are discussed and the obtained results presented.

Keywords: Active noise control, adaptive filters, inverse filters, LMS algorithm, FILMS algorithm.

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Authors: J. Daba, J. Dubois

Abstract:

In this work, we improve a previously developed segmentation scheme aimed at extracting edge information from speckled images using a maximum likelihood edge detector. The scheme was based on finding a threshold for the probability density function of a new kernel defined as the arithmetic mean-to-geometric mean ratio field over a circular neighborhood set and, in a general context, is founded on a likelihood random field model (LRFM). The segmentation algorithm was applied to discriminated speckle areas obtained using simple elliptic discriminant functions based on measures of the signal-to-noise ratio with fractional order moments. A rigorous stochastic analysis was used to derive an exact expression for the cumulative density function of the probability density function of the random field. Based on this, an accurate probability of error was derived and the performance of the scheme was analysed. The improved segmentation scheme performed well for both simulated and real images and showed superior results to those previously obtained using the original LRFM scheme and standard edge detection methods. In particular, the false alarm probability was markedly lower than that of the original LRFM method with oversegmentation artifacts virtually eliminated. The importance of this work lies in the development of a stochastic-based segmentation, allowing an accurate quantification of the probability of false detection. Non visual quantification and misclassification in medical ultrasound speckled images is relatively new and is of interest to clinicians.

Keywords: Discriminant function, false alarm, segmentation, signal-to-noise ratio, skewness, speckle.

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Authors: M. D. Haneef, R. B. Randall, Z. Peng

Abstract:

Journal bearings used in IC engines are prone to premature failures and are likely to fail earlier than the rated life due to highly impulsive and unstable operating conditions and frequent starts/stops. Vibration signature extraction and wear debris analysis techniques are prevalent in industry for condition monitoring of rotary machinery. However, both techniques involve a great deal of technical expertise, time, and cost. Limited literature is available on the application of these techniques for fault detection in reciprocating machinery, due to the complex nature of impact forces that confounds the extraction of fault signals for vibration-based analysis and wear prediction. In present study, a simulation model was developed to investigate the bearing wear behaviour, resulting because of different operating conditions, to complement the vibration analysis. In current simulation, the dynamics of the engine was established first, based on which the hydrodynamic journal bearing forces were evaluated by numerical solution of the Reynold’s equation. In addition, the essential outputs of interest in this study, critical to determine wear rates are the tangential velocity and oil film thickness between the journals and bearing sleeve, which if not maintained appropriately, have a detrimental effect on the bearing performance. Archard’s wear prediction model was used in the simulation to calculate the wear rate of bearings with specific location information as all determinative parameters were obtained with reference to crank rotation. Oil film thickness obtained from the model was used as a criterion to determine if the lubrication is sufficient to prevent contact between the journal and bearing thus causing accelerated wear. A limiting value of 1 μm was used as the minimum oil film thickness needed to prevent contact. The increased wear rate with growing severity of operating conditions is analogous and comparable to the rise in amplitude of the squared envelope of the referenced vibration signals. Thus on one hand, the developed model demonstrated its capability to explain wear behaviour and on the other hand it also helps to establish a co-relation between wear based and vibration based analysis. Therefore, the model provides a cost effective and quick approach to predict the impending wear in IC engine bearings under various operating conditions.

Keywords: Condition monitoring, IC engine, journal bearings, vibration analysis, wear prediction.

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Authors: Yusuke Onoue, Seiji Fujino, Norimasa Nakashima

Abstract:

The IDR(s) method based on an extended IDR theorem was proposed by Sonneveld and van Gijzen. The original IDR(s) method has excellent property compared with the conventional iterative methods in terms of efficiency and small amount of memory. IDR(s) method, however, has unexpected property that relative residual 2-norm stagnates at the level of less than 10-12. In this paper, an effective strategy for stagnation detection, stagnation avoidance using adaptively information of parameter s and improvement of convergence rate itself of IDR(s) method are proposed in order to gain high accuracy of the approximated solution of IDR(s) method. Through numerical experiments, effectiveness of adaptive tuning IDR(s) method is verified and demonstrated.

Keywords: Krylov subspace methods, IDR(s), adaptive tuning, stagnation of relative residual.

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Authors: P.S.Prakash, S.Selvan

Abstract:

Over the past several years, there has been a considerable amount of research within the field of Quality of Service (QoS) support for distributed multimedia systems. One of the key issues in providing end-to-end QoS guarantees in packet networks is determining a feasible path that satisfies a number of QoS constraints. The problem of finding a feasible path is NPComplete if number of constraints is more than two and cannot be exactly solved in polynomial time. We proposed Feasible Path Selection Algorithm (FPSA) that addresses issues with pertain to finding a feasible path subject to delay and cost constraints and it offers higher success rate in finding feasible paths.

Keywords: feasible path, multiple constraints, path selection, QoS routing

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Authors: Saad M. Al-Garni, Adel A. Abdennour

Abstract:

Vehicle detection is the critical step for highway monitoring. In this paper we propose background subtraction and edge detection technique for vehicle detection. This technique uses the advantages of both approaches. The practical applications approved the effectiveness of this method. This method consists of two procedures: First, automatic background extraction procedure, in which the background is extracted automatically from the successive frames; Second vehicles detection procedure, which depend on edge detection and background subtraction. Experimental results show the effective application of this algorithm. Vehicles detection rate was higher than 91%.

Keywords: Image processing, Automatic background extraction, Moving vehicle detection.

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Authors: Saba Zare Zardareh, Farhad Akbari Boroumand

Abstract:

The objective is to fabricate organic light emitting diode and to study its degradation process in atmosphere condition in which PFO as an emitting material and PEDOT:PSS as a hole injecting material were used on ITO substrate. Thus degradation process of the OLED was studied upon its current-voltage characteristic. By fabricating this OLED and obtaining blue light and analysis of current-voltage characteristic during the time after fabrication, it was observed that the current of the OLED was exponentially decreased. Current reduction during the initial hours of fabrication was outstanding and after few days its reduction rate was dropped significantly, while the diode was dying.

Keywords: OLED, Degradation, Dark spot.

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Authors: Vikram Jeganathan, A. V. Sai Balasubramanian, N. Ravi Shankar, S. Subbaraman, R. Rengaraj

Abstract:

Heating systems are a necessity for regions which brace extreme cold weather throughout the year. To maintain a comfortable temperature inside a given place, heating systems making use of- Hydronic boilers- are used. The principle of a single pipe system serves as a base for their working. It is mandatory for these heating systems to control the room temperature, thus maintaining a warm environment. In this paper, the concept of regulation of the room temperature over a wide range is established by using an Adaptive Fuzzy Controller (AFC). This fuzzy controller automatically detects the changes in the outside temperatures and correspondingly maintains the inside temperature to a palatial value. Two separate AFC's are put to use to carry out this function: one to determine the quantity of heat needed to reach the prospective temperature required and to set the desired temperature; the other to control the position of the valve, which is directly proportional to the error between the present room temperature and the user desired temperature. The fuzzy logic controls the position of the valve as per the requirement of the heat. The amount by which the valve opens or closes is controlled by 5 knob positions, which vary from minimum to maximum, thereby regulating the amount of heat flowing through the valve. For the given test system data, different de-fuzzifier methods have been implemented and the results are compared. In order to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, a fuzzy controller has been designed by obtaining a test data from a real time system. The simulations are performed in MATLAB and are verified with standard system data. The proposed approach can be implemented for real time applications.

Keywords: Adaptive fuzzy controller, Hydronic heating system

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Authors: T. N. Mac, B. Shahbodaghkhan, N. Khalili

Abstract:

A new elastic-viscoplastic (EVP) constitutive model is proposed for the analysis of time-dependent behavior of clay. The proposed model is based on the bounding surface plasticity and the concept of viscoplastic consistency framework to establish continuous transition from plasticity to rate dependent viscoplasticity. Unlike the overstress based models, this model will meet the consistency condition in formulating the constitutive equation for EVP model. The procedure of deriving the constitutive relationship is also presented. Simulation results and comparisons with experimental data are then presented to demonstrate the performance of the model.

Keywords: Bounding surface, consistency theory, constitutive model, viscosity.

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Authors: Zilong He, Yuesheng Zhu

Abstract:

Based on the combined shape feature and texture feature, a fast object detection method with rotation invariant features is proposed in this paper. A quick template matching scheme based online learning designed for online applications is also introduced in this paper. The experimental results have shown that the proposed approach has the features of lower computation complexity and higher detection rate, while keeping almost the same performance compared to the HOG-based method, and can be more suitable for run time applications.

Keywords: gradient feature, online learning, rotationinvariance, template feature

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Authors: M. Aghajani Haghighi, H. Emdad, K. Jafarpur, A. N. Ziaei

Abstract:

The effect of a uniform magnetic field on the formation of drops of specific size has been investigated numerically in a T-shaped microchannel. Previous researches indicated that the drop sizes of secondary stream decreases, with increasing main stream flow rate and decreasing interfacial tension. In the present study the effect of a uniform magnetic field on the main stream is considered, and it is proposed that by increasing the Hartmann number, the size of the drops of the secondary stream will be decreased.

Keywords: Drop formation, Magnetohydrodynamics, Microchannel, Volume-of-Fluid

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Authors: H. Anıl, G. Kar

Abstract:

In addition to being rich in renewable energy resources, Turkey is one of the countries that promise potential in geothermal energy production with its high installed power, cheapness, and sustainability. Increasing imbalance penalties become an economic burden for organizations, since the geothermal generation plants cannot maintain the balance of supply and demand due to the inadequacy of the production forecasts given in the day-ahead market. A better production forecast reduces the imbalance penalties of market participants and provides a better imbalance in the day ahead market. In this study, using machine learning, deep learning and time series methods, the total generation of the power plants belonging to Zorlu Doğal Electricity Generation, which has a high installed capacity in terms of geothermal, was predicted for the first one-week and first two-weeks of March, then the imbalance penalties were calculated with these estimates and compared with the real values. These modeling operations were carried out on two datasets, the basic dataset and the dataset created by extracting new features from this dataset with the feature engineering method. According to the results, Support Vector Regression from traditional machine learning models outperformed other models and exhibited the best performance. In addition, the estimation results in the feature engineering dataset showed lower error rates than the basic dataset. It has been concluded that the estimated imbalance penalty calculated for the selected organization is lower than the actual imbalance penalty, optimum and profitable accounts.

Keywords: Machine learning, deep learning, time series models, feature engineering, geothermal energy production forecasting.

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