Search results for: prediction method.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8798

Search results for: prediction method.

6668 Analysis of Cyclic Elastic-Plastic Loading of Shaft Based On Kinematic Hardening Model

Authors: Isa Ahmadi, Ramin Khamedi

Abstract:

In this paper, the elasto-plastic and cyclic torsion of a shaft is studied using a finite element method. The Prager kinematic hardening theory of plasticity with the Ramberg and Osgood stress-strain equation is used to evaluate the cyclic loading behavior of the shaft under the torsional loading. The material of shaft is assumed to follow the non-linear strain hardening property based on the Prager model. The finite element method with C1 continuity is developed and used for solution of the governing equations of the problem. The successive substitution iterative method is used to calculate the distribution of stresses and plastic strains in the shaft due to cyclic loads. The shear stress, effective stress, residual stress and elastic and plastic shear strain distribution are presented in the numerical results.

Keywords: Cyclic Loading, Finite Element Analysis, Prager Kinematic Hardening Model, Torsion of shaft.

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6667 Increasing The Speed of Convergence of an Artificial Neural Network based ARMA Coefficients Determination Technique

Authors: Abiodun M. Aibinu, Momoh J. E. Salami, Amir A. Shafie, Athaur Rahman Najeeb

Abstract:

In this paper, novel techniques in increasing the accuracy and speed of convergence of a Feed forward Back propagation Artificial Neural Network (FFBPNN) with polynomial activation function reported in literature is presented. These technique was subsequently used to determine the coefficients of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Autoregressive (AR) system. The results obtained by introducing sequential and batch method of weight initialization, batch method of weight and coefficient update, adaptive momentum and learning rate technique gives more accurate result and significant reduction in convergence time when compared t the traditional method of back propagation algorithm, thereby making FFBPNN an appropriate technique for online ARMA coefficient determination.

Keywords: Adaptive Learning rate, Adaptive momentum, Autoregressive, Modeling, Neural Network.

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6666 The Study on Migration Strategy of Legacy System

Authors: Chao Qi, Fuyang Peng, Bo Deng, Xiaoyan Su

Abstract:

In the upgrade process of enterprise information systems, whether new systems will be success and their development will be efficient, depends on how to deal with and utilize those legacy systems. We propose an evaluation system, which comprehensively describes the capacity of legacy information systems in five aspects. Then a practical legacy systems evaluation method is scripted. Base on the evaluation result, we put forward 4 kinds of migration strategy: eliminated, maintenance, modification, encapsulating. The methods and strategies play important roles in practice.

Keywords: Legacy Systems, Evaluation Method, Migration Strategy.

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6665 More Realistic Model for Simulating Min Protein Dynamics: Lattice Boltzmann Method Incorporating the Role of Nucleoids

Authors: J.Yojina, W. Ngamsaad, N. Nuttavut, D.Triampo, Y. Lenbury, W. Triampo, P. Kanthang, S.Sriyab

Abstract:

The dynamics of Min proteins plays a center role in accurate cell division. Although the nucleoids may presumably play an important role in prokaryotic cell division, there is a lack of models to account for its participation. In this work, we apply the lattice Boltzmann method to investigate protein oscillation based on a mesoscopic model that takes into account the nucleoid-s role. We found that our numerical results are in reasonably good agreement with the previous experimental results On comparing with the other computational models without the presence of nucleoids, the highlight of our finding is that the local densities of MinD and MinE on the cytoplasmic membrane increases, especially along the cell width, when the size of the obstacle increases, leading to a more distinct cap-like structure at the poles. This feature indicated the realistic pattern and reflected the combination of Min protein dynamics and nucleoid-s role.

Keywords: lattice Boltzmann method, cell division, Minproteins oscillation, nucleoid

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6664 Finite Element Analysis of Flush End Plate Moment Connections under Cyclic Loading

Authors: Vahid Zeinoddini-Meimand, Mehdi Ghassemieh, Jalal Kiani

Abstract:

This paper explains the results of an investigation on the analysis of flush end plate steel connections by means of finite element method. Flush end plates are a highly indeterminate type of connection, which have a number of parameters that affect their behavior. Because of this, experimental investigations are complicated and very costly. Today, the finite element method provides an ideal method for analyzing complicated structures. Finite element models of these types of connections under monotonic loading have previously been investigated. A numerical model, which can predict the cyclic behavior of these connections, is of critical importance, as dynamic experiments are more costly. This paper summarizes a study to develop a three-dimensional finite element model that can accurately capture the cyclic behavior of flush end plate connections. Comparisons between FEM results and experimental results obtained from full-scale tests have been carried out, which confirms the accuracy of the finite element model. Consequently, design equations for this connection have been investigated and it is shown that these predictions are not precise in all cases. The effect of end plate thickness and bolt diameter on the overall behavior of this connection is discussed. This research demonstrates that using the appropriate configuration, this connection has the potential to form a plastic hinge in the beam--desirable in seismic behavior.

Keywords: Flush end plate connection, moment-rotation diagram, finite element method, moment frame, cyclic loading.

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6663 HPM Solution of Momentum Equation for Darcy-Brinkman Model in a Parallel Plates Channel Subjected to Lorentz Force

Authors: Asghar Shirazpour, Seyed Moein Rassoulinejad Mousavi, Hamid Reza Seyf

Abstract:

In this paper an analytical solution is presented for fully developed flow in a parallel plates channel under the action of Lorentz force, by use of Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM). The analytical results are compared with exact solution and an excellent agreement has been observed between them for both Couette and Poiseuille flows. Moreover, the effects of key parameters have been studied on the dimensionless velocity profile.

Keywords: Lorentz Force, Porous Media, Homotopy Perturbation method

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6662 The Effects of Detector Spacing on Travel Time Prediction on Freeways

Authors: Piyali Chaudhuri, Peter T. Martin, Aleksandar Z. Stevanovic, Chongkai Zhu

Abstract:

Loop detectors report traffic characteristics in real time. They are at the core of traffic control process. Intuitively, one would expect that as density of detection increases, so would the quality of estimates derived from detector data. However, as detector deployment increases, the associated operating and maintenance cost increases. Thus, traffic agencies often need to decide where to add new detectors and which detectors should continue receiving maintenance, given their resource constraints. This paper evaluates the effect of detector spacing on freeway travel time estimation. A freeway section (Interstate-15) in Salt Lake City metropolitan region is examined. The research reveals that travel time accuracy does not necessarily deteriorate with increased detector spacing. Rather, the actual location of detectors has far greater influence on the quality of travel time estimates. The study presents an innovative computational approach that delivers optimal detector locations through a process that relies on Genetic Algorithm formulation.

Keywords: Detector, Freeway, Genetic algorithm, Travel timeestimate.

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6661 Antecedent Factors of Ethical Ideologies in Moral Judgment: Evidence from the Mixed Method Study

Authors: N. Mustamil, M. Quaddus

Abstract:

This research investigates the factors that influence moral judgments when dealing with ethical dilemmas in the organizational context. It also investigates the antecedents of individual ethical ideology (idealism and relativism). A mixed method study, which combines qualitative (field study) and quantitative (survey) approaches, was used in this study. An initial model was developed first, which was then fine-tuned based on field studies. Data were collected from managers in Malaysian large organizations. The results of this study reveal that in-group collectivism culture, power distance culture, parental values, and religiosity were significant as antecedents of ethical ideology. However, direct effects of these variables on moral judgment were not significant. Furthermore, the results of this study confirm the significant effects of ethical ideology on moral judgment. This study provides valuable insight into evaluating the validity of existing theory as proposed in the literature and offers significant practical implications.

Keywords: Antecedents Factors, Ethical Ideology, Mixed Method, Moral Judgment

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6660 Integrating Low and High Level Object Recognition Steps by Probabilistic Networks

Authors: András Barta, István Vajk

Abstract:

In pattern recognition applications the low level segmentation and the high level object recognition are generally considered as two separate steps. The paper presents a method that bridges the gap between the low and the high level object recognition. It is based on a Bayesian network representation and network propagation algorithm. At the low level it uses hierarchical structure of quadratic spline wavelet image bases. The method is demonstrated for a simple circuit diagram component identification problem.

Keywords: Object recognition, Bayesian network, Wavelets, Document processing.

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6659 Non-Overlapping Hierarchical Index Structure for Similarity Search

Authors: Mounira Taileb, Sid Lamrous, Sami Touati

Abstract:

In order to accelerate the similarity search in highdimensional database, we propose a new hierarchical indexing method. It is composed of offline and online phases. Our contribution concerns both phases. In the offline phase, after gathering the whole of the data in clusters and constructing a hierarchical index, the main originality of our contribution consists to develop a method to construct bounding forms of clusters to avoid overlapping. For the online phase, our idea improves considerably performances of similarity search. However, for this second phase, we have also developed an adapted search algorithm. Our method baptized NOHIS (Non-Overlapping Hierarchical Index Structure) use the Principal Direction Divisive Partitioning (PDDP) as algorithm of clustering. The principle of the PDDP is to divide data recursively into two sub-clusters; division is done by using the hyper-plane orthogonal to the principal direction derived from the covariance matrix and passing through the centroid of the cluster to divide. Data of each two sub-clusters obtained are including by a minimum bounding rectangle (MBR). The two MBRs are directed according to the principal direction. Consequently, the nonoverlapping between the two forms is assured. Experiments use databases containing image descriptors. Results show that the proposed method outperforms sequential scan and SRtree in processing k-nearest neighbors.

Keywords: K-nearest neighbour search, multi-dimensional indexing, multimedia databases, similarity search.

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6658 Crack Opening Investigation in Fiberconcrete

Authors: Arturs Macanovskis, Vitalijs Lusis, Andrejs Krasnikovs

Abstract:

This work had three stages. In the first stage was examined pull-out process for steel fiber was embedded into a concrete by one end and was pulled out of concrete under the angle to pulling out force direction. Angle was varied. On the obtained forcedisplacement diagrams were observed jumps. For such mechanical behavior explanation, fiber channel in concrete surface microscopical experimental investigation, using microscope KEYENCE VHX2000, was performed. At the second stage were obtained diagrams for load- crack opening displacement for breaking homogeneously reinforced and layered fiberconcrete prisms (with dimensions 10x10x40cm) subjected to 4-point bending. After testing was analyzed main crack. At the third stage elaborated prediction model for the fiberconcrete beam, failure under bending, using the following data: a) diagrams for fibers pulling out at different angles; b) experimental data about steel-straight fibers locations in the main crack. Experimental and theoretical (modeling) data were compared.

Keywords: Fiberconcrete, pull-out, fiber channel, layered fiberconcrete.

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6657 Efficient Tools for Managing Uncertainties in Design and Operation of Engineering Structures

Authors: J. Menčík

Abstract:

Actual load, material characteristics and other quantities often differ from the design values. This can cause worse function, shorter life or failure of a civil engineering structure, a machine, vehicle or another appliance. The paper shows main causes of the uncertainties and deviations and presents a systematic approach and efficient tools for their elimination or mitigation of consequences. Emphasis is put on the design stage, which is most important for reliability ensuring. Principles of robust design and important tools are explained, including FMEA, sensitivity analysis and probabilistic simulation methods. The lifetime prediction of long-life objects can be improved by long-term monitoring of the load response and damage accumulation in operation. The condition evaluation of engineering structures, such as bridges, is often based on visual inspection and verbal description. Here, methods based on fuzzy logic can reduce the subjective influences.

Keywords: Design, fuzzy methods, Monte Carlo, reliability, robust design, sensitivity analysis, simulation, uncertainties.

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6656 Adaptive Score Normalization: A Novel Approach for Multimodal Biometric Systems

Authors: Anouar Ben Khalifa, Sami Gazzah, Najoua Essoukri BenAmara

Abstract:

Multimodal biometric systems integrate the data presented by multiple biometric sources, hence offering a better performance than the systems based on a single biometric modality. Although the coupling of biometric systems can be done at different levels, the fusion at the scores level is the most common since it has been proven effective than the rest of the fusion levels. However, the scores from different modalities are generally heterogeneous. A step of normalizing the scores is needed to transform these scores into a common domain before combining them. In this paper, we study the performance of several normalization techniques with various fusion methods in a context relating to the merger of three unimodal systems based on the face, the palmprint and the fingerprint. We also propose a new adaptive normalization method that takes into account the distribution of client scores and impostor scores. Experiments conducted on a database of 100 people show that the performances of a multimodal system depend on the choice of the normalization method and the fusion technique. The proposed normalization method has given the best results.

Keywords: Multibiometrics, Fusion, Score level, Score normalization, Adaptive normalization.

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6655 Electrochemical Performance of Carbon Nanotube Based Supercapacitor

Authors: Jafar Khan Kasi, Ajab Khan Kasi, Muzamil Bokhari

Abstract:

Carbon nanotube is one of the most attractive materials for the potential applications of nanotechnology due to its excellent mechanical, thermal, electrical and optical properties. In this paper we report a supercapacitor made of nickel foil electrodes, coated with multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) thin film using electrophoretic deposition (EPD) method. Chemical vapor deposition method was used for the growth of MWCNTs and ethanol was used as a hydrocarbon source. High graphitic multiwall carbon nanotube was found at 750oC analyzing by Raman spectroscopy. We observed the electrochemical performance of supercapacitor by cyclic voltammetry. The electrodes of supercapacitor fabricated from MWCNTs exhibit considerably small equivalent series resistance (ESR), and a high specific power density. Electrophoretic deposition is an easy method in fabricating MWCNT electrodes for high performance supercapacitor.

Keywords: Carbon nanotube, chemical vapor deposition, catalyst, charge, cyclic voltammetry.

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6654 Congestion Management in a Deregulated Power System with Micro Grid

Authors: Guguloth Ramesh, T. K. Sunil Kumar

Abstract:

This paper presents congestion management in deregulated power systems. In a deregulated environment, every buyer wants to buy power from the cheapest generator available, irrespective of relative geographical location of buyer and seller. As a consequence of this, the transmission corridors evacuating the power of cheaper generators would get overloaded if all such transactions are approved. Congestion management is a mechanism to prioritize the transactions and commit to such a schedule which would not overload the network. The congestions in the transmission lines are determined by Optimal Power Flow (OPF) solution, which is carried by primal liner programming method. Congestion in the transmission lines are alleviated by connected Distributed Generation (DG) of micro grid at load bus. A method to determine the optimal location of DG unit has been suggested based on transmission line relief sensitivity based approach. The effectiveness of proposed method has been demonstrated on modified IEEE-14 and 30 bus test systems.

Keywords: Congestion management, Distribution Generation (DG), Transmission Line Relief (TLR) sensitivity index, OPF.

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6653 Simulation of Enhanced Biomass Gasification for Hydrogen Production using iCON

Authors: Mohd K. Yunus, Murni M. Ahmad, Abrar Inayat, Suzana Yusup

Abstract:

Due to the environmental and price issues of current energy crisis, scientists and technologists around the globe are intensively searching for new environmentally less-impact form of clean energy that will reduce the high dependency on fossil fuel. Particularly hydrogen can be produced from biomass via thermochemical processes including pyrolysis and gasification due to the economic advantage and can be further enhanced through in-situ carbon dioxide removal using calcium oxide. This work focuses on the synthesis and development of the flowsheet for the enhanced biomass gasification process in PETRONAS-s iCON process simulation software. This hydrogen prediction model is conducted at operating temperature between 600 to 1000oC at atmospheric pressure. Effects of temperature, steam-to-biomass ratio and adsorbent-to-biomass ratio were studied and 0.85 mol fraction of hydrogen is predicted in the product gas. Comparisons of the results are also made with experimental data from literature. The preliminary economic potential of developed system is RM 12.57 x 106 which equivalent to USD 3.77 x 106 annually shows economic viability of this process.

Keywords: Biomass, Gasification, Hydrogen, iCON.

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6652 Development of Predictive Model for Surface Roughness in End Milling of Al-SiCp Metal Matrix Composites using Fuzzy Logic

Authors: M. Chandrasekaran, D. Devarasiddappa

Abstract:

Metal matrix composites have been increasingly used as materials for components in automotive and aerospace industries because of their improved properties compared with non-reinforced alloys. During machining the selection of appropriate machining parameters to produce job for desired surface roughness is of great concern considering the economy of manufacturing process. In this study, a surface roughness prediction model using fuzzy logic is developed for end milling of Al-SiCp metal matrix composite component using carbide end mill cutter. The surface roughness is modeled as a function of spindle speed (N), feed rate (f), depth of cut (d) and the SiCp percentage (S). The predicted values surface roughness is compared with experimental result. The model predicts average percentage error as 4.56% and mean square error as 0.0729. It is observed that surface roughness is most influenced by feed rate, spindle speed and SiC percentage. Depth of cut has least influence.

Keywords: End milling, fuzzy logic, metal matrix composites, surface roughness

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6651 A Study for Carbonation Degree on Concrete using a Phenolphthalein Indicator and Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy

Authors: Ho Jae Lee, Do Gyeum Kim, Jang Hwa Lee, Myoung Suk Cho

Abstract:

A concrete structure is designed and constructed for its purpose of use, and is expected to maintain its function for the target durable years from when it was planned. Nevertheless, as time elapses the structure gradually deteriorates and then eventually degrades to the point where the structure cannot exert the function for which it was planned. The performance of concrete that is able to maintain the level of the performance required over the designed period of use as it has less deterioration caused by the elapse of time under the designed condition is referred to as Durability. There are a number of causes of durability degradation, but especially chloride damage, carbonation, freeze-thaw, etc are the main causes. In this study, carbonation, one of the main causes of deterioration of the durability of a concrete structure, was investigated via a microstructure analysis technique. The method for the measurement of carbonation was studied using the existing indicator method, and the method of measuring the progress of carbonation in a quantitative manner was simultaneously studied using a FT-IR (Fourier-Transform Infrared) Spectrometer along with the microstructure analysis technique.

Keywords: Concrete, Carbonation, Microsturcture, FT-IR

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6650 Global Behavior in (Q-xy)2 Potential

Authors: K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

The general global behavior of particle S a non-linear (Q - xy)2 potential cannot be revealed a Poincare surface of section method (PSS) because inost trajectories take practically infinitely long time to integrate numerically before they come back to the surface. In this study as an alternative to PSS, a multiple scale perturbation is applied to analyze global adiabatic, non-adiabatic and chaotic behavior of particles in this potential. It was found that the results can be summarized as a form of a Fermi-like map. Additionally, this method gives a variation of global stochasticity criteria with Q.

Keywords: Multiple Scak Perturbation The Poincare Surface or Section, Fermi Map

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6649 Analysis of the Black Sea Gas Hydrates

Authors: Sukru Merey, Caglar Sinayuc

Abstract:

Gas hydrate deposits which are found in deep ocean sediments and in permafrost regions are supposed to be a fossil fuel reserve for the future. The Black Sea is also considered rich in terms of gas hydrates. It abundantly contains gas hydrates as methane (CH4~80 to 99.9%) source. In this study, by using the literature, seismic and other data of the Black Sea such as salinity, porosity of the sediments, common gas type, temperature distribution and pressure gradient, the optimum gas production method for the Black Sea gas hydrates was selected as mainly depressurization method. Numerical simulations were run to analyze gas production from gas hydrate deposited in turbidites in the Black Sea by depressurization.

Keywords: Black Sea hydrates, depressurization, turbidites, HydrateResSim.

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6648 Integrating Fast Karnough Map and Modular Neural Networks for Simplification and Realization of Complex Boolean Functions

Authors: Hazem M. El-Bakry

Abstract:

In this paper a new fast simplification method is presented. Such method realizes Karnough map with large number of variables. In order to accelerate the operation of the proposed method, a new approach for fast detection of group of ones is presented. Such approach implemented in the frequency domain. The search operation relies on performing cross correlation in the frequency domain rather than time one. It is proved mathematically and practically that the number of computation steps required for the presented method is less than that needed by conventional cross correlation. Simulation results using MATLAB confirm the theoretical computations. Furthermore, a powerful solution for realization of complex functions is given. The simplified functions are implemented by using a new desigen for neural networks. Neural networks are used because they are fault tolerance and as a result they can recognize signals even with noise or distortion. This is very useful for logic functions used in data and computer communications. Moreover, the implemented functions are realized with minimum amount of components. This is done by using modular neural nets (MNNs) that divide the input space into several homogenous regions. Such approach is applied to implement XOR function, 16 logic functions on one bit level, and 2-bit digital multiplier. Compared to previous non- modular designs, a clear reduction in the order of computations and hardware requirements is achieved.

Keywords: Boolean Functions, Simplification, KarnoughMap, Implementation of Logic Functions, Modular NeuralNetworks.

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6647 Optimization of Reaction Rate Parameters in Modeling of Heavy Paraffins Dehydrogenation

Authors: Leila Vafajoo, Farhad Khorasheh, Mehrnoosh Hamzezadeh Nakhjavani, Moslem Fattahi

Abstract:

In the present study, a procedure was developed to determine the optimum reaction rate constants in generalized Arrhenius form and optimized through the Nelder-Mead method. For this purpose, a comprehensive mathematical model of a fixed bed reactor for dehydrogenation of heavy paraffins over Pt–Sn/Al2O3 catalyst was developed. Utilizing appropriate kinetic rate expressions for the main dehydrogenation reaction as well as side reactions and catalyst deactivation, a detailed model for the radial flow reactor was obtained. The reactor model composed of a set of partial differential equations (PDE), ordinary differential equations (ODE) as well as algebraic equations all of which were solved numerically to determine variations in components- concentrations in term of mole percents as a function of time and reactor radius. It was demonstrated that most significant variations observed at the entrance of the bed and the initial olefin production obtained was rather high. The aforementioned method utilized a direct-search optimization algorithm along with the numerical solution of the governing differential equations. The usefulness and validity of the method was demonstrated by comparing the predicted values of the kinetic constants using the proposed method with a series of experimental values reported in the literature for different systems.

Keywords: Dehydrogenation, Pt-Sn/Al2O3 Catalyst, Modeling, Nelder-Mead, Optimization

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6646 Numerical Study of Vortex Formation inside a Stirred Tank

Authors: Divya Rajavathsavai, Akhilesh Khapre, Basudeb Munshi

Abstract:

The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of stirred tank with the air-water interface are carried out in the presence of different types of the impeller and with or without baffles. A multiple reference frame (MRF) approach with the volume of fluid (VOF) method is used to capture the air-water interface. The RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes) equations with k-ε turbulence model are solved to predict the flow behavior of water and air phase which are treated as a different phases. The predicted results have shown that the VOF method is able to capture the interface in the unbaffled tank. While, the VOF method is showing an unfeasible results in the baffled tank with high rotational impeller speed. For continuous stirred tank, the air-water interface is disturbed by the inflow and the level of water is also increased with time.

Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, stirred tank, airwater interface, multiple reference frame, volume of fluid, Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations.

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6645 A Modified Speech Enhancement Using Adaptive Gain Equalizer with Non linear Spectral Subtraction for Robust Speech Recognition

Authors: C. Ganesh Babu, P. T. Vanathi

Abstract:

In this paper we present an enhanced noise reduction method for robust speech recognition using Adaptive Gain Equalizer with Non linear Spectral Subtraction. In Adaptive Gain Equalizer method (AGE), the input signal is divided into a number of subbands that are individually weighed in time domain, in accordance to the short time Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) in each subband estimation at every time instant. Instead of focusing on suppression the noise on speech enhancement is focused. When analysis was done under various noise conditions for speech recognition, it was found that Adaptive Gain Equalizer method algorithm has an obvious failing point for a SNR of -5 dB, with inadequate levels of noise suppression for SNR less than this point. This work proposes the implementation of AGE when coupled with Non linear Spectral Subtraction (AGE-NSS) for robust speech recognition. The experimental result shows that out AGE-NSS performs the AGE when SNR drops below -5db level.

Keywords: Adaptive Gain Equalizer, Non Linear Spectral Subtraction, Speech Enhancement, and Speech Recognition.

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6644 Development of a Project Selection Method on Information System Using ANP and Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Ingu Kim, Shangmun Shin, Yongsun Choi, Nguyen Manh Thang, Edwin R. Ramos, Won-Joo Hwang

Abstract:

Project selection problems on management information system (MIS) are often considered a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) for a solving method. These problems contain two aspects, such as interdependencies among criteria and candidate projects and qualitative and quantitative factors of projects. However, most existing methods reported in literature consider these aspects separately even though these two aspects are simultaneously incorporated. For this reason, we proposed a hybrid method using analytic network process (ANP) and fuzzy logic in order to represent both aspects. We then propose a goal programming model to conduct an optimization for the project selection problems interpreted by a hybrid concept. Finally, a numerical example is conducted as verification purposes.

Keywords: Analytic Network Process (ANP), Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), Fuzzy Logic, Information System Project Selection, Goal Programming.

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6643 Human Growth Curve Estimation through a Combination of Longitudinal and Cross-sectional Data

Authors: Sedigheh Mirzaei S., Debasis Sengupta

Abstract:

Parametric models have been quite popular for studying human growth, particularly in relation to biological parameters such as peak size velocity and age at peak size velocity. Longitudinal data are generally considered to be vital for fittinga parametric model to individual-specific data, and for studying the distribution of these biological parameters in a human population. However, cross-sectional data are easier to obtain than longitudinal data. In this paper, we present a method of combining longitudinal and cross-sectional data for the purpose of estimating the distribution of the biological parameters. We demonstrate, through simulations in the special case ofthePreece Baines model, how estimates based on longitudinal data can be improved upon by harnessing the information contained in cross-sectional data.We study the extent of improvement for different mixes of the two types of data, and finally illustrate the use of the method through data collected by the Indian Statistical Institute.

Keywords: Preece-Baines growth model, MCMC method, Mixed effect model

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6642 Parameters Optimization of the Laminated Composite Plate for Sound Transmission Problem

Authors: Yu T. Tsai, Jin H. Huang

Abstract:

In this paper, the specific sound Transmission Loss (TL) of the Laminated Composite Plate (LCP) with different material properties in each layer is investigated. The numerical method to obtain the TL of the LCP is proposed by using elastic plate theory. The transfer matrix approach is novelty presented for computational efficiency in solving the numerous layers of dynamic stiffness matrix (D-matrix) of the LCP. Besides the numerical simulations for calculating the TL of the LCP, the material properties inverse method is presented for the design of a laminated composite plate analogous to a metallic plate with a specified TL. As a result, it demonstrates that the proposed computational algorithm exhibits high efficiency with a small number of iterations for achieving the goal. This method can be effectively employed to design and develop tailor-made materials for various applications.

Keywords: Sound transmission loss, laminated composite plate, transfer matrix approach, inverse problem, elastic plate theory, material properties.

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6641 Inferential Reasoning for Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Mission

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

We describe issues bedeviling the coordination of heterogeneous (different sensors carrying agents) multi-agent missions such as belief conflict, situation reasoning, etc. We applied Bayesian and agents' presumptions inferential reasoning to solve the outlined issues with the heterogeneous multi-agent belief variation and situational-base reasoning. Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was used in modeling the agents' belief conflict due to sensor variations. Simulation experiments were designed, and cases from agents’ missions were used in training the BBN using gradient descent and expectation-maximization algorithms. The output network is a well-trained BBN for making inferences for both agents and human experts. We claim that the Bayesian learning algorithm prediction capacity improves by the number of training data and argue that it enhances multi-agents robustness and solve agents’ sensor conflicts.

Keywords: Distributed constraint optimization problem, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence.

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6640 A Hybrid Model of ARIMA and Multiple Polynomial Regression for Uncertainties Modeling of a Serial Production Line

Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid b. Ali, Loh Wei Ping, Mohsen Mohammadzadeh

Abstract:

Uncertainties of a serial production line affect on the production throughput. The uncertainties cannot be prevented in a real production line. However the uncertain conditions can be controlled by a robust prediction model. Thus, a hybrid model including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiple polynomial regression, is proposed to model the nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput. The uncertainties under consideration of this study are demand, breaktime, scrap, and lead-time. The nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput are examined in the form of quadratic and cubic regression models, where the adjusted R-squared for quadratic and cubic regressions was 98.3% and 98.2%. We optimized the multiple quadratic regression (MQR) by considering the time series trend of the uncertainties using ARIMA model. Finally the hybrid model of ARIMA and MQR is formulated by better adjusted R-squared, which is 98.9%.

Keywords: ARIMA, multiple polynomial regression, production throughput, uncertainties

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6639 Knowledge Based Wear Particle Analysis

Authors: Mohammad S. Laghari, Qurban A. Memon, Gulzar A. Khuwaja

Abstract:

The paper describes a knowledge based system for analysis of microscopic wear particles. Wear particles contained in lubricating oil carry important information concerning machine condition, in particular the state of wear. Experts (Tribologists) in the field extract this information to monitor the operation of the machine and ensure safety, efficiency, quality, productivity, and economy of operation. This procedure is not always objective and it can also be expensive. The aim is to classify these particles according to their morphological attributes of size, shape, edge detail, thickness ratio, color, and texture, and by using this classification thereby predict wear failure modes in engines and other machinery. The attribute knowledge links human expertise to the devised Knowledge Based Wear Particle Analysis System (KBWPAS). The system provides an automated and systematic approach to wear particle identification which is linked directly to wear processes and modes that occur in machinery. This brings consistency in wear judgment prediction which leads to standardization and also less dependence on Tribologists.

Keywords: Computer vision, knowledge based systems, morphology, wear particles.

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