Search results for: dynamics. modeling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2814

Search results for: dynamics. modeling

714 Availability Analysis of Milling System in a Rice Milling Plant

Authors: P. C. Tewari, Parveen Kumar

Abstract:

The paper describes the availability analysis of milling system of a rice milling plant using probabilistic approach. The subsystems under study are special purpose machines. The availability analysis of the system is carried out to determine the effect of failure and repair rates of each subsystem on overall performance (i.e. steady state availability) of system concerned. Further, on the basis of effect of repair rates on the system availability, maintenance repair priorities have been suggested. The problem is formulated using Markov Birth-Death process taking exponential distribution for probable failures and repair rates. The first order differential equations associated with transition diagram are developed by using mnemonic rule. These equations are solved using normalizing conditions and recursive method to drive out the steady state availability expression of the system. The findings of the paper are presented and discussed with the plant personnel to adopt a suitable maintenance policy to increase the productivity of the rice milling plant.

Keywords: Markov process, milling system, availability modeling, rice milling plant.

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713 Stability of Fractional Differential Equation

Authors: Rabha W. Ibrahim

Abstract:

We study a Dirichlet boundary value problem for Lane-Emden equation involving two fractional orders. Lane-Emden equation has been widely used to describe a variety of phenomena in physics and astrophysics, including aspects of stellar structure, the thermal history of a spherical cloud of gas, isothermal gas spheres,and thermionic currents. However, ordinary Lane-Emden equation does not provide the correct description of the dynamics for systems in complex media. In order to overcome this problem and describe dynamical processes in a fractalmedium, numerous generalizations of Lane-Emden equation have been proposed. One such generalization replaces the ordinary derivative by a fractional derivative in the Lane-Emden equation. This gives rise to the fractional Lane-Emden equation with a single index. Recently, a new type of Lane-Emden equation with two different fractional orders has been introduced which provides a more flexible model for fractal processes as compared with the usual one characterized by a single index. The contraction mapping principle and Krasnoselskiis fixed point theorem are applied to prove the existence of solutions of the problem in a Banach space. Ulam-Hyers stability for iterative Cauchy fractional differential equation is defined and studied.

Keywords: Fractional calculus, fractional differential equation, Lane-Emden equation, Riemann-Liouville fractional operators, Volterra integral equation.

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712 Location of Vortex Formation Threshold at Suction Inlets near Ground Planes – Ascending and Descending Conditions

Authors: Wei Hua Ho

Abstract:

Vortices can develop in intakes of turbojet and turbo fan aero engines during high power operation in the vicinity of solid surfaces. These vortices can cause catastrophic damage to the engine. The factors determining the formation of the vortex include both geometric dimensions as well as flow parameters. It was shown that the threshold at which the vortex forms or disappears is also dependent on the initial flow condition (i.e. whether a vortex forms after stabilised non vortex flow or vice-versa). A computational fluid dynamics study was conducted to determine the difference in thresholds between the two conditions. This is the first reported numerical investigation of the “memory effect". The numerical results reproduce the phenomenon reported in previous experimental studies and additional factors, which had not been previously studied, were investigated. They are the rate at which ambient velocity changes and the initial value of ambient velocity. The former was found to cause a shift in the threshold but not the later. It was also found that the varying condition thresholds are not symmetrical about the neutral threshold. The vortex to no vortex threshold lie slightly further away from the neutral threshold compared to the no vortex to vortex threshold. The results suggests that experimental investigation of vortex formation threshold performed either in vortex to no vortex conditions, or vice versa, solely may introduce mis-predictions greater than 10%.

Keywords: Jet Engine Test Cell, Unsteady flow, Inlet Vortex

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711 Investigation of Scour Depth at Bridge Piers using Bri-Stars Model in Iran

Authors: Gh. Saeidifar, F. Raeiszadeh

Abstract:

BRI-STARS (BRIdge Stream Tube model for Alluvial River Simulation) program was used to investigate the scour depth around bridge piers in some of the major river systems in Iran. Model calibration was performed by collecting different field data. Field data are cataloged on three categories, first group of bridges that their rivers bed are formed by fine material, second group of bridges that their rivers bed are formed by sand material, and finally bridges that their rivers bed are formed by gravel or cobble materials. Verification was performed with some field data in Fars Province. Results show that for wide piers, computed scour depth is more than measured one. In gravel bed streams, computed scour depth is greater than measured scour depth, the reason is due to formation of armor layer on bed of channel. Once this layer is eroded, the computed scour depth is close to the measured one.

Keywords: BRI-STARS, local scour, bridge, computer modeling

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710 Mathematical Model for Dengue Disease with Maternal Antibodies

Authors: Rujira Kongnuy, Puntani Pongsumpun, I-Ming Tang

Abstract:

Mathematical models can be used to describe the dynamics of the spread of infectious disease between susceptibles and infectious populations. Dengue fever is a re-emerging disease in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Its incidence has increased fourfold since 1970 and outbreaks are now reported quite frequently from many parts of the world. In dengue endemic regions, more cases of dengue infection in pregnancy and infancy are being found due to the increasing incidence. It has been reported that dengue infection was vertically transmitted to the infants. Primary dengue infection is associated with mild to high fever, headache, muscle pain and skin rash. Immune response includes IgM antibodies produced by the 5th day of symptoms and persist for 30-60 days. IgG antibodies appear on the 14th day and persist for life. Secondary infections often result in high fever and in many cases with hemorrhagic events and circulatory failure. In the present paper, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate the succession of dengue disease transmission in pregnancy and infancy. Stability analysis of the equilibrium points is carried out and a simulation is given for the different sets of parameter. Moreover, the bifurcation diagrams of our model are discussed. The controlling of this disease in infant cases is introduced in the term of the threshold condition.

Keywords: Dengue infection, equilibrium states, maternalantibodies, pregnancy and infancy.

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709 Calculation Analysis of an Axial Compressor Supersonic Stage Impeller

Authors: Y. B. Galerkin, E. Y. Popova, K. V. Soldatova

Abstract:

There is an evident trend to elevate pressure ratio of a single stage of a turbo compressors - axial compressors in particular. Whilst there was an opinion recently that a pressure ratio 1,9 was a reasonable limit, later appeared information on successful modeling tested of stages with pressure ratio up to 2,8. The authors recon that lack of information on high pressure stages makes actual a study of rational choice of design parameters before high supersonic flow problems solving. The computer program of an engineering type was developed. Below is presented a sample of its application to study possible parameters of the impeller of the stage with pressure ratio 3,0. Influence of two main design parameters on expected efficiency, periphery blade speed and flow structure is demonstrated. The results had lead to choose a variant for further analysis and improvement by CFD methods.

Keywords: Supersonic stage, impeller, efficiency, flow rate coefficient, work coefficient, loss coefficient, oblique shock, direct shock.

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708 Bayesian Online Learning of Corresponding Points of Objects with Sequential Monte Carlo

Authors: Miika Toivanen, Jouko Lampinen

Abstract:

This paper presents an online method that learns the corresponding points of an object from un-annotated grayscale images containing instances of the object. In the first image being processed, an ensemble of node points is automatically selected which is matched in the subsequent images. A Bayesian posterior distribution for the locations of the nodes in the images is formed. The likelihood is formed from Gabor responses and the prior assumes the mean shape of the node ensemble to be similar in a translation and scale free space. An association model is applied for separating the object nodes and background nodes. The posterior distribution is sampled with Sequential Monte Carlo method. The matched object nodes are inferred to be the corresponding points of the object instances. The results show that our system matches the object nodes as accurately as other methods that train the model with annotated training images.

Keywords: Bayesian modeling, Gabor filters, Online learning, Sequential Monte Carlo.

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707 A CFD Study of Heat Transfer Enhancement in Pipe Flow with Al2O3 Nanofluid

Authors: P.Kumar

Abstract:

Fluids are used for heat transfer in many engineering equipments. Water, ethylene glycol and propylene glycol are some of the common heat transfer fluids. Over the years, in an attempt to reduce the size of the equipment and/or efficiency of the process, various techniques have been employed to improve the heat transfer rate of these fluids. Surface modification, use of inserts and increased fluid velocity are some examples of heat transfer enhancement techniques. Addition of milli or micro sized particles to the heat transfer fluid is another way of improving heat transfer rate. Though this looks simple, this method has practical problems such as high pressure loss, clogging and erosion of the material of construction. These problems can be overcome by using nanofluids, which is a dispersion of nanosized particles in a base fluid. Nanoparticles increase the thermal conductivity of the base fluid manifold which in turn increases the heat transfer rate. In this work, the heat transfer enhancement using aluminium oxide nanofluid has been studied by computational fluid dynamic modeling of the nanofluid flow adopting the single phase approach.

Keywords: Heat transfer intensification, nanofluid, CFD, friction factor

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706 Predicting Extrusion Process Parameters Using Neural Networks

Authors: Sachin Man Bajimaya, SangChul Park, Gi-Nam Wang

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to estimate realistic principal extrusion process parameters by means of artificial neural network. Conventionally, finite element analysis is used to derive process parameters. However, the finite element analysis of the extrusion model does not consider the manufacturing process constraints in its modeling. Therefore, the process parameters obtained through such an analysis remains highly theoretical. Alternatively, process development in industrial extrusion is to a great extent based on trial and error and often involves full-size experiments, which are both expensive and time-consuming. The artificial neural network-based estimation of the extrusion process parameters prior to plant execution helps to make the actual extrusion operation more efficient because more realistic parameters may be obtained. And so, it bridges the gap between simulation and real manufacturing execution system. In this work, a suitable neural network is designed which is trained using an appropriate learning algorithm. The network so trained is used to predict the manufacturing process parameters.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Indirect Extrusion, Finite Element Analysis, MES.

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705 System Identification with General Dynamic Neural Networks and Network Pruning

Authors: Christian Endisch, Christoph Hackl, Dierk Schröder

Abstract:

This paper presents an exact pruning algorithm with adaptive pruning interval for general dynamic neural networks (GDNN). GDNNs are artificial neural networks with internal dynamics. All layers have feedback connections with time delays to the same and to all other layers. The structure of the plant is unknown, so the identification process is started with a larger network architecture than necessary. During parameter optimization with the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) algorithm irrelevant weights of the dynamic neural network are deleted in order to find a model for the plant as simple as possible. The weights to be pruned are found by direct evaluation of the training data within a sliding time window. The influence of pruning on the identification system depends on the network architecture at pruning time and the selected weight to be deleted. As the architecture of the model is changed drastically during the identification and pruning process, it is suggested to adapt the pruning interval online. Two system identification examples show the architecture selection ability of the proposed pruning approach.

Keywords: System identification, dynamic neural network, recurrentneural network, GDNN, optimization, Levenberg Marquardt, realtime recurrent learning, network pruning, quasi-online learning.

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704 Uncertainty Analysis of a Hardware in Loop Setup for Testing Products Related to Building Technology

Authors: Balasundaram Prasaant, Ploix Stephane, Delinchant Benoit, Muresan Cristian

Abstract:

Hardware in Loop (HIL) testing is done to test and validate a particular product especially in building technology. When it comes to building technology, it is more important to test the products for their efficiency. The test rig in the HIL simulator may contribute to some uncertainties on measured efficiency. The uncertainties include physical uncertainties and scenario-based uncertainties. In this paper, a simple uncertainty analysis framework for an HIL setup is shown considering only the physical uncertainties. The entire modeling of the HIL setup is done in Dymola. The uncertain sources are considered based on available knowledge of the components and also on expert knowledge. For the propagation of uncertainty, Monte Carlo Simulation is used since it is the most reliable and easy to use. In this article it is shown how an HIL setup can be modeled and how uncertainty propagation can be performed on it. Such an approach is not common in building energy analysis.

Keywords: Energy in Buildings, Hardware in Loop, Modelica (Dymola), Monte Carlo Simulation, Uncertainty Propagation.

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703 Reference Model for the Implementation of an E-Commerce Solution in Peruvian SMEs in the Retail Sector

Authors: Julio Kauss, Miguel Cadillo, David Mauricio

Abstract:

E-commerce is a business model that allows companies to optimize the processes of buying, selling, transferring goods and exchanging services through computer networks or the Internet. In Peru, the electronic commerce is used infrequently. This situation is due, in part to the fact that there is no model that allows companies to implement an e-commerce solution, which means that most SMEs do not have adequate knowledge to adapt to electronic commerce. In this work, a reference model is proposed for the implementation of an e-commerce solution in Peruvian SMEs in the retail sector. It consists of five phases: Business Analysis, Business Modeling, Implementation, Post Implementation and Results. The present model was validated in a SME of the Peruvian retail sector through the implementation of an electronic commerce platform, through which the company increased its sales through the delivery channel by 10% in the first month of deployment. This result showed that the model is easy to implement, is economical and agile. In addition, it allowed the company to increase its business offer, adapt to e-commerce and improve customer loyalty.

Keywords: E-commerce, retail, SMEs, reference model.

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702 Effect of Swirl on Gas-Fired Combustion Behavior in a 3-D Rectangular Combustion Chamber

Authors: Man Young Kim

Abstract:

The objective of this work is to investigate the turbulent reacting flow in a three dimensional combustor with emphasis on the effect of inlet swirl flow through a numerical simulation. Flow field is analyzed using the SIMPLE method which is known as stable as well as accurate in the combustion modeling, and the finite volume method is adopted in solving the radiative transfer equation. In this work, the thermal and flow characteristics in a three dimensional combustor by changing parameters such as equivalence ratio and inlet swirl angle have investigated. As the equivalence ratio increases, which means that more fuel is supplied due to a larger inlet fuel velocity, the flame temperature increases and the location of maximum temperature has moved towards downstream. In the mean while, the existence of inlet swirl velocity makes the fuel and combustion air more completely mixed and burnt in short distance. Therefore, the locations of the maximum reaction rate and temperature were shifted to forward direction compared with the case of no swirl.

Keywords: Gaseous Fuel, Inlet Swirl, Thermal Radiation, Turbulent Combustion

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701 Scale, Technique and Composition Effects of CO2 Emissions under Trade Liberalization of EGS: A CGE Evaluation for Argentina

Authors: M. Priscila Ramos, Omar O. Chisari, Juan Pablo Vila Martínez

Abstract:

Current literature about trade liberalization of environmental goods and services (EGS) raises doubts about the extent of the triple win-win situation for trade, development and the environment. However, much of this literature does not consider the possibility that this agreement carries technological transmissions, either through trade or foreign direct investment. This paper presents a computable general equilibrium model calibrated for Argentina, where there are alternative technologies (one dirty and one clean according to carbon emissions) to produce the same goods. In this context, the trade liberalization of EGS allows to increase GDP, trade, reduce unemployment and improve the households welfare. However, the capital mobility appears as the key assumption to jointly reach the environmental target, when the positive scale effect generated by the increase in trade is offset by the change in the composition of production (composition and technical effects by the use of the clean alternative technology) and of consumption (composition effect by substitution of relatively lesspolluting imported goods).

Keywords: CGE modeling, CO2 emissions, composition effect, scale effect, technique effect, trade liberalization of EGS.

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700 Crack Opening Investigation in Fiberconcrete

Authors: Arturs Macanovskis, Vitalijs Lusis, Andrejs Krasnikovs

Abstract:

This work had three stages. In the first stage was examined pull-out process for steel fiber was embedded into a concrete by one end and was pulled out of concrete under the angle to pulling out force direction. Angle was varied. On the obtained forcedisplacement diagrams were observed jumps. For such mechanical behavior explanation, fiber channel in concrete surface microscopical experimental investigation, using microscope KEYENCE VHX2000, was performed. At the second stage were obtained diagrams for load- crack opening displacement for breaking homogeneously reinforced and layered fiberconcrete prisms (with dimensions 10x10x40cm) subjected to 4-point bending. After testing was analyzed main crack. At the third stage elaborated prediction model for the fiberconcrete beam, failure under bending, using the following data: a) diagrams for fibers pulling out at different angles; b) experimental data about steel-straight fibers locations in the main crack. Experimental and theoretical (modeling) data were compared.

Keywords: Fiberconcrete, pull-out, fiber channel, layered fiberconcrete.

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699 Fragility Analysis of Weir Structure Subjected to Flooding Water Damage

Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: Weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo Simulation, permeability coefficient.

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698 ESS Control Strategy for Primary Frequency Response in Microgrid Considering Ramp Rate

Authors: Ho-Jun Jo, Wook-Won Kim, Yong-Sung Kim, Jin-O Kim

Abstract:

The application of ESS (Energy Storage Systems) in the future grids has been the solution of the microgrid. However, high investment costs necessitate accurate modeling and control strategy of ESS to justify its economic viability and further underutilization. Therefore, the reasonable control strategy for ESS which is subjected to generator and usage helps to curtail the cost of investment and operation costs. The rated frequency in power system is decreased when the load is increasing unexpectedly; hence the thermal power is operated at the capacity of only its 95% for the Governor Free (GF) to adjust the frequency as reserve (5%) in practice. The ESS can be utilized with governor at the same time for the frequency response due to characteristic of its fast response speed and moreover, the cost of ESS is declined rapidly to the reasonable price. This paper presents the ESS control strategy to extend usage of the ESS taken account into governor’s ramp rate and reduce the governor’s intervention as well. All results in this paper are simulated by MATLAB.

Keywords: Micro grid, energy storage systems, ramp rate, control strategy.

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697 CFD Analysis of Incompressible Turbulent Swirling Flow through Circle Grids Space Filling Plate

Authors: B. Manshoor, M. Jaat, Amir Khalid

Abstract:

Circle grid space filling plate is a flow conditioner with a fractal pattern and used to eliminate turbulence originating from pipe fittings in experimental fluid flow applications. In this paper, steady state, incompressible, swirling turbulent flow through circle grid space filling plate has been studied. The solution and the analysis were carried out using finite volume CFD solver FLUENT 6.2. Three turbulence models were used in the numerical investigation and their results were compared with the pressure drop correlation of BS EN ISO 5167-2:2003. The turbulence models investigated here are the standard k-ε, realizable k-ε, and the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM). The results showed that the RSM model gave the best agreement with the ISO pressure drop correlation. The effects of circle grids space filling plate thickness and Reynolds number on the flow characteristics have been investigated as well.

Keywords: Flow conditioning, turbulent flow, turbulent modeling, CFD.

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696 Machine Learning Methods for Flood Hazard Mapping

Authors: S. Zappacosta, C. Bove, M. Carmela Marinelli, P. di Lauro, K. Spasenovic, L. Ostano, G. Aiello, M. Pietrosanto

Abstract:

This paper proposes a neural network approach for assessing flood hazard mapping. The core of the model is a machine learning component fed by frequency ratios, namely statistical correlations between flood event occurrences and a selected number of topographic properties. The classification capability was compared with the flood hazard mapping River Basin Plans (Piani Assetto Idrogeologico, acronimed as PAI) designed by the Italian Institute for Environmental Research and Defence, ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale), encoding four different increasing flood hazard levels. The study area of Piemonte, an Italian region, has been considered without loss of generality. The frequency ratios may be used as a standalone block to model the flood hazard mapping. Nevertheless, the mixture with a neural network improves the classification power of several percentage points, and may be proposed as a basic tool to model the flood hazard map in a wider scope.

Keywords: flood modeling, hazard map, neural networks, hydrogeological risk, flood risk assessment

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695 An Agent-based Model for Analyzing Interaction of Two Stable Social Networks

Authors: Masatora Daito, Hisashi Kojima

Abstract:

In this research, the authors analyze network stability using agent-based simulation. Firstly, the authors focus on analyzing large networks (eight agents) by connecting different two stable small social networks (A small stable network is consisted on four agents.). Secondly, the authors analyze the network (eight agents) shape which is added one agent to a stable network (seven agents). Thirdly, the authors analyze interpersonal comparison of utility. The “star-network "was not found on the result of interaction among stable two small networks. On the other hand, “decentralized network" was formed from several combination. In case of added one agent to a stable network (seven agents), if the value of “c"(maintenance cost of per a link) was larger, the number of patterns of stable network was also larger. In this case, the authors identified the characteristics of a large stable network. The authors discovered the cases of decreasing personal utility under condition increasing total utility.

Keywords: Social Network, Symmetric Situation, Network Stability, Agent-Based Modeling.

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694 A Bayesian Network Reliability Modeling for FlexRay Systems

Authors: Kuen-Long Leu, Yung-Yuan Chen, Chin-Long Wey, Jwu-E Chen, Chung-Hsien Hsu

Abstract:

The increasing importance of FlexRay systems in automotive domain inspires unceasingly relative researches. One primary issue among researches is to verify the reliability of FlexRay systems either from protocol aspect or from system design aspect. However, research rarely discusses the effect of network topology on the system reliability. In this paper, we will illustrate how to model the reliability of FlexRay systems with various network topologies by a well-known probabilistic reasoning technology, Bayesian Network. In this illustration, we especially investigate the effectiveness of error containment built in star topology and fault-tolerant midpoint synchronization algorithm adopted in FlexRay communication protocol. Through a FlexRay steer-by-wire case study, the influence of different topologies on the failure probability of the FlexRay steerby- wire system is demonstrated. The notable value of this research is to show that the Bayesian Network inference is a powerful and feasible method for the reliability assessment of FlexRay systems.

Keywords: Bayesian Network, FlexRay, fault tolerance, network topology, reliability.

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693 Analysis of Urban Population Using Twitter Distribution Data: Case Study of Makassar City, Indonesia

Authors: Yuyun Wabula, B. J. Dewancker

Abstract:

In the past decade, the social networking app has been growing very rapidly. Geolocation data is one of the important features of social media that can attach the user's location coordinate in the real world. This paper proposes the use of geolocation data from the Twitter social media application to gain knowledge about urban dynamics, especially on human mobility behavior. This paper aims to explore the relation between geolocation Twitter with the existence of people in the urban area. Firstly, the study will analyze the spread of people in the particular area, within the city using Twitter social media data. Secondly, we then match and categorize the existing place based on the same individuals visiting. Then, we combine the Twitter data from the tracking result and the questionnaire data to catch the Twitter user profile. To do that, we used the distribution frequency analysis to learn the visitors’ percentage. To validate the hypothesis, we compare it with the local population statistic data and land use mapping released by the city planning department of Makassar local government. The results show that there is the correlation between Twitter geolocation and questionnaire data. Thus, integration the Twitter data and survey data can reveal the profile of the social media users.

Keywords: Geolocation, Twitter, distribution analysis, human mobility.

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692 Modeling Managerial Competences for Effective Small Firm Performance in a Developing Economy

Authors: M. Aminu Sanda

Abstract:

This paper explores competencies that managers of small firms in Ghana use to enhance operational flexibility towards the attainment of higher productivity. This is because the requisite competence required of such managers to be effective performers continues to be a challenge. Data was collected from managers of three hundred small firms using a standardized self-completion questionnaire and analyzed using the Amos-based structural equation model approach. Findings from factor and confirmatory factor analyses showed that the only competence exhibited by managers toward effective performance is realistic practices evident at the workplace. It is concluded that a manager’s self-confidence and involvement in areas that he/she is good at, and his/her possession of skills that enables performance at high capacity are indications of the manger’s effectiveness. The study outcome provides a knowledge base helpful to policy-makers, especially in Ghana, in determining the requisite managerial competences required by small firm managers for effective performance.

Keywords: Managerial competence, small firm, effective performance, developing economy, Ghana.

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691 Inferential Reasoning for Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Mission

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

We describe issues bedeviling the coordination of heterogeneous (different sensors carrying agents) multi-agent missions such as belief conflict, situation reasoning, etc. We applied Bayesian and agents' presumptions inferential reasoning to solve the outlined issues with the heterogeneous multi-agent belief variation and situational-base reasoning. Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was used in modeling the agents' belief conflict due to sensor variations. Simulation experiments were designed, and cases from agents’ missions were used in training the BBN using gradient descent and expectation-maximization algorithms. The output network is a well-trained BBN for making inferences for both agents and human experts. We claim that the Bayesian learning algorithm prediction capacity improves by the number of training data and argue that it enhances multi-agents robustness and solve agents’ sensor conflicts.

Keywords: Distributed constraint optimization problem, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence.

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690 A New Controlling Parameter in Design of Above Knee Prosthesis

Authors: M. Tahani, G. Karimi

Abstract:

In this paper after reviewing some previous studies, in order to optimize the above knee prosthesis, beside the inertial properties a new controlling parameter is informed. This controlling parameter makes the prosthesis able to act as a multi behavior system when the amputee is opposing to different environments. This active prosthesis with the new controlling parameter can simplify the control of prosthesis and reduce the rate of energy consumption in comparison to recently presented similar prosthesis “Agonistantagonist active knee prosthesis". In this paper three models are generated, a passive, an active, and an optimized active prosthesis. Second order Taylor series is the numerical method in solution of the models equations and the optimization procedure is genetic algorithm. Modeling the prosthesis which comprises this new controlling parameter (SEP) during the swing phase represents acceptable results in comparison to natural behavior of shank. Reported results in this paper represent 3.3 degrees as the maximum deviation of models shank angle from the natural pattern. The natural gait pattern belongs to walking at the speed of 81 m/min.

Keywords: Above knee prosthesis, active controlling parameter, ballistic motion, swing phase.

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689 A Hybrid Model of ARIMA and Multiple Polynomial Regression for Uncertainties Modeling of a Serial Production Line

Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid b. Ali, Loh Wei Ping, Mohsen Mohammadzadeh

Abstract:

Uncertainties of a serial production line affect on the production throughput. The uncertainties cannot be prevented in a real production line. However the uncertain conditions can be controlled by a robust prediction model. Thus, a hybrid model including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiple polynomial regression, is proposed to model the nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput. The uncertainties under consideration of this study are demand, breaktime, scrap, and lead-time. The nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput are examined in the form of quadratic and cubic regression models, where the adjusted R-squared for quadratic and cubic regressions was 98.3% and 98.2%. We optimized the multiple quadratic regression (MQR) by considering the time series trend of the uncertainties using ARIMA model. Finally the hybrid model of ARIMA and MQR is formulated by better adjusted R-squared, which is 98.9%.

Keywords: ARIMA, multiple polynomial regression, production throughput, uncertainties

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688 Signal and Thermodynamic Analysis for Evaluation of Thermal and Power of Gas Turbine-Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Hybrid System

Authors: R. Mahjoub, K. Maghsoudi Mehraban

Abstract:

In recent years, solid oxide fuel cells have been used as one of the main technologies for the production of electrical energy with high-efficiency ratio, which is used hydrogen and other hydrocarbons as fuels. The fuel cell technology can be used either alone or in hybrid gas turbines systems. In this study, thermodynamics analysis for GT-SOFC hybrid system is developed, and then mass balance and exergy equations have been applied not only on the process but also on the individual components of the hybrid system, which enable us to estimate the thermal efficiency of the hybrid systems. Furthermore, various sources of irreversibility in the solid oxide fuel cell system are discussed, and modeling and parametric analyses like heat and pressure are carried out. This study enables us to consider the irreversible effects of solid oxide fuel cells, and also it leads to the specification of efficiency of the system accurately. Next in the study, both methane and hydrogen as a fuel for SOFC are used and implemented, and finally, our results are compared with other references.

Keywords: hybrid system, gas turbine, entropy and exergy analysis, irreversibility analysis

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687 Numerical Modeling of Benzene Transport in Andosol and Sand: Adequacy of Diffusion and Equilibrium Adsorption Equations

Authors: Ping Du, Masaki Sagehashi, Akihiko Terada, Masaaki Hosomi

Abstract:

Prediction of benzene transport in soil and volatilization from soil to the atmosphere is important for the preservation of human health and management of contaminated soils. The adequacy of a simple numerical model, assuming two-phase diffusion and equilibrium of liquid/solid adsorption, was investigated by experimental data of benzene concentration in a flux chamber (with headspace) where Andosol and sand were filled. Adsorption experiment for liquid phase was performed to determine an adsorption coefficient. Furthermore, adequacy of vapor phase adsorption was also studied through two runs of experiment using sand with different water content. The results show that the model adequately predicted benzene transport and volatilization from Andosol and sand with water content of 14.0%. In addition, the experiment additionally revealed that vapor phase adsorption should be considered in diffusion model for sand with very low water content.

Keywords: Benzene; Transport Model, Adsorption, Soil Contaminant.

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686 Selecting an Advanced Creep Model or a Sophisticated Time-Integration? A New Approach by Means of Sensitivity Analysis

Authors: Holger Keitel

Abstract:

The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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685 Modeling and Analysis of a Cycling Prosthetic

Authors: John Tolentino, Yong Seok Park

Abstract:

There are currently many people living with limb loss in the USA. The main causes for amputation can range from vascular disease, to trauma, or cancer. This number is expected increase over the next decade. Many patients have a single prosthetic for the first year but end up getting a second one to accommodate their changing physique. Afterwards, the prosthesis gets replaced every three to five years depending on how often it is used. This could cost the patient up to $500,000 throughout their lifetime. Complications do not end there, however. Due to the absence of nerves, it becomes more difficult to traverse terrain with a prosthetic. Moving on an incline or decline becomes difficult, thus curbs and stairs can be a challenge. Certain physical activities, such as cycling, could be even more strenuous. It will need to be relearned to accommodate for the change in weight, center of gravity, and transfer of energy from the leg to the pedal. The purpose of this research project is to develop a new, alternate below-knee cycling prosthetic using Dieter & Schmidt’s design process approach. It will be subjected to fatigue analysis under dynamic loading to observe the limitations as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the prosthetic. Benchmark comparisons will be made between existing prosthetics and the proposed one, examining the benefits and disadvantages. The resulting prosthetic will be 3D printed using acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) or polycarbonate (PC) plastic.

Keywords: 3D printing, cycling, prosthetic design, synthetic design.

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