Search results for: optimal estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2576

Search results for: optimal estimation

506 Estimation of the Road Traffic Emissions and Dispersion in the Developing Countries Conditions

Authors: Hicham Gourgue, Ahmed Aharoune, Ahmed Ihlal

Abstract:

We present in this work our model of road traffic emissions (line sources) and dispersion of these emissions, named DISPOLSPEM (Dispersion of Poly Sources and Pollutants Emission Model). In its emission part, this model was designed to keep the consistent bottom-up and top-down approaches. It also allows to generate emission inventories from reduced input parameters being adapted to existing conditions in Morocco and in the other developing countries. While several simplifications are made, all the performance of the model results are kept. A further important advantage of the model is that it allows the uncertainty calculation and emission rate uncertainty according to each of the input parameters. In the dispersion part of the model, an improved line source model has been developed, implemented and tested against a reference solution. It provides improvement in accuracy over previous formulas of line source Gaussian plume model, without being too demanding in terms of computational resources. In the case study presented here, the biggest errors were associated with the ends of line source sections; these errors will be canceled by adjacent sections of line sources during the simulation of a road network. In cases where the wind is parallel to the source line, the use of the combination discretized source and analytical line source formulas minimizes remarkably the error. Because this combination is applied only for a small number of wind directions, it should not excessively increase the calculation time.

Keywords: Air pollution, dispersion, emissions, line sources, road traffic, urban transport.

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505 Grid-Connected Photovoltaic System: System Overview and Sizing Principles

Authors: Najiya Omar, Hamed Aly, Timothy Little

Abstract:

The optimal size of a photovoltaic (PV) array is considered a critical factor in designing an efficient PV system due to the dependence of the PV cell performance on temperature. A high temperature can lead to voltage losses of solar panels, whereas a low temperature can cause voltage overproduction. There are two possible scenarios of the inverter’s operation in which they are associated with the erroneous calculations of the number of PV panels: 1) If the number of the panels is scant and the temperature is high, the minimum voltage required to operate the inverter will not be reached. As a result, the inverter will shut down. 2) Comparably, if the number of panels is excessive and the temperature is low, the produced voltage will be more than the maximum limit of the inverter which can cause the inverter to get disconnected or even damaged. This article aims to assess theoretical and practical methodologies to calculate size and determine the topology of a PV array. The results are validated by applying an experimental evaluation for a 100 kW Grid-connected PV system for a location in Halifax, Nova Scotia and achieving a satisfactory system performance compared to the previous work done.

Keywords: Sizing PV panels, grid-connected PV, topology of PV array, theoretical and practical methodologies.

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504 An Integrated Logistics Model of Spare Parts Maintenance Planning within the Aviation Industry

Authors: Roy Fritzsche, Rainer Lasch

Abstract:

Avoidable unscheduled maintenance events and unnecessary spare parts deliveries are mostly caused by an incorrect choice of the underlying maintenance strategy. For a faster and more efficient supply of spare parts for aircrafts of an airline we examine options for improving the underlying logistics network integrated in an existing aviation industry network. This paper presents a dynamic prediction model as decision support for maintenance method selection considering requirements of an entire flight network. The objective is to guarantee a high supply of spare parts by an optimal interaction of various network levels and thus to reduce unscheduled maintenance events and minimize total costs. By using a prognostics-based preventive maintenance strategy unscheduled component failures are avoided for an increase in availability and reliability of the entire system. The model is intended for use in an aviation company that utilizes a structured planning process based on collected failures data of components.

Keywords: Aviation industry, Prognosis, Reliability, Preventive maintenance.

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503 Exergy Analysis of Combined Cycle of Air Separation and Natural Gas Liquefaction

Authors: Hanfei Tuo, Yanzhong Li

Abstract:

This paper presented a novel combined cycle of air separation and natural gas liquefaction. The idea is that natural gas can be liquefied, meanwhile gaseous or liquid nitrogen and oxygen are produced in one combined cryogenic system. Cycle simulation and exergy analysis were performed to evaluate the process and thereby reveal the influence of the crucial parameter, i.e., flow rate ratio through two stages expanders β on heat transfer temperature difference, its distribution and consequent exergy loss. Composite curves for the combined hot streams (feeding natural gas and recycled nitrogen) and the cold stream showed the degree of optimization available in this process if appropriate β was designed. The results indicated that increasing β reduces temperature difference and exergy loss in heat exchange process. However, the maximum limit value of β should be confined in terms of minimum temperature difference proposed in heat exchanger design standard and heat exchanger size. The optimal βopt under different operation conditions corresponding to the required minimum temperature differences was investigated.

Keywords: combined cycle simulation, exergy analysis, natural gas liquefaction.

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502 Operation Strategy of Multi-Energy Storage System Considering Power System Reliability

Authors: Wook-Won Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Jin-O Kim

Abstract:

As the penetration of Energy Storage System (ESS) increases in the power system due to higher performance and lower cost than ever, ESS is expanding its role to the ancillary service as well as the storage of extra energy from the intermittent renewable energy resources. For multi-ESS with different capacity and SOC level each other, it is required to make the optimal schedule of SOC level use the multi-ESS effectively. This paper proposes the energy allocation method for the multiple battery ESS with reliability constraint, in order to make the ESS discharge the required energy as long as possible. A simple but effective method is proposed in this paper, to satisfy the power for the spinning reserve requirement while improving the system reliability. Modelling of ESS is also proposed, and reliability is evaluated by using the combined reliability model which includes the proposed ESS model and conventional generation one. In the case study, it can be observed that the required power is distributed to each ESS adequately and accordingly, the SOC is scheduled to improve the reliability indices such as Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE).

Keywords: Multiple energy storage system, energy allocation method, SOC schedule, reliability constraints.

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501 Energy Consumption Forecast Procedure for an Industrial Facility

Authors: Tatyana Aleksandrovna Barbasova, Lev Sergeevich Kazarinov, Olga Valerevna Kolesnikova, Aleksandra Aleksandrovna Filimonova

Abstract:

We regard forecasting of energy consumption by private production areas of a large industrial facility as well as by the facility itself. As for production areas, the forecast is made based on empirical dependencies of the specific energy consumption and the production output. As for the facility itself, implementation of the task to minimize the energy consumption forecasting error is based on adjustment of the facility’s actual energy consumption values evaluated with the metering device and the total design energy consumption of separate production areas of the facility. The suggested procedure of optimal energy consumption was tested based on the actual data of core product output and energy consumption by a group of workshops and power plants of the large iron and steel facility. Test results show that implementation of this procedure gives the mean accuracy of energy consumption forecasting for winter 2014 of 0.11% for the group of workshops and 0.137% for the power plants.

Keywords: Energy consumption, energy consumption forecasting error, energy efficiency, forecasting accuracy, forecasting.

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500 Optimization of Solar Tracking Systems

Authors: A. Zaher, A. Traore, F. Thiéry, T. Talbert, B. Shaer

Abstract:

In this paper, an intelligent approach is proposed to optimize the orientation of continuous solar tracking systems on cloudy days. Considering the weather case, the direct sunlight is more important than the diffuse radiation in case of clear sky. Thus, the panel is always pointed towards the sun. In case of an overcast sky, the solar beam is close to zero, and the panel is placed horizontally to receive the maximum of diffuse radiation. Under partly covered conditions, the panel must be pointed towards the source that emits the maximum of solar energy and it may be anywhere in the sky dome. Thus, the idea of our approach is to analyze the images, captured by ground-based sky camera system, in order to detect the zone in the sky dome which is considered as the optimal source of energy under cloudy conditions. The proposed approach is implemented using experimental setup developed at PROMES-CNRS laboratory in Perpignan city (France). Under overcast conditions, the results were very satisfactory, and the intelligent approach has provided efficiency gains of up to 9% relative to conventional continuous sun tracking systems.

Keywords: Clouds detection, fuzzy inference systems, images processing, sun trackers.

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499 Solid-State Bioconversion of Pineapple Residues into Kojic Acid by Aspergillus flavus: A Prospective Study

Authors: S. Nurashikin, E. Z. Rusley, A. Husaini

Abstract:

Kojic acid is an organic acid that is widely used as an ingredient for dermatological products, precursor for flavor enhancer and also as anti-inflammatory drug. The present study was undertaken to test the feasibility of pineapple residues as substrate for kojic acid production by Aspergillus flavus Link 44-1 via solid-state fermentation. The effect of initial moisture content, pH and incubation time on kojic acid fermentation was investigated. The best initial moisture content for kojic acid production from pineapple residues was observed at 70% (v/w) whereas initial culture pH 2.5 was identified to give high production of kojic acid. The optimal range of incubation time was identified between 8 and 14 days of incubation which corresponded to highest range of kojic acid produced. The results from this study pronounce the promising usability of pineapple residues as alternative substrate for kojic acid production by A. flavus Link 44-1.

Keywords: Aspergillus flavus, kojic acid, pineapple residues, solid state fermentation.

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498 Effect of Vibration Amplitude and Welding Force on Weld Strength of Ultrasonic Metal Welding

Authors: Ziad. Sh. Al Sarraf

Abstract:

Ultrasonic metal welding has been the subject of ongoing research and development, most recently concentrating on metal joining in miniature devices, for example to allow solder-free wire bonding. As well as at the small scale, there are also opportunities to research the joining of thicker sheet metals and to widen the range of similar and dissimilar materials that can be successfully joined using this technology. This study presents the design, characterisation and test of a lateral-drive ultrasonic metal spot welding device. The ultrasonic metal spot welding horn is modelled using finite element analysis (FEA) and its vibration behaviour is characterised experimentally to ensure ultrasonic energy is delivered effectively to the weld coupon. The welding stack and fixtures are then designed and mounted on a test machine to allow a series of experiments to be conducted for various welding and ultrasonic parameters. Weld strength is subsequently analysed using tensile-shear tests. The results show how the weld strength is particularly sensitive to the combination of clamping force and ultrasonic vibration amplitude of the welding tip, but there are optimal combinations of these and also limits that must be clearly identified.

Keywords: Ultrasonic welding, vibration amplitude, welding force, weld strength.

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497 Movement Optimization of Robotic Arm Movement Using Soft Computing

Authors: V. K. Banga

Abstract:

Robots are now playing a very promising role in industries. Robots are commonly used in applications in repeated operations or where operation by human is either risky or not feasible. In most of the industrial applications, robotic arm manipulators are widely used. Robotic arm manipulator with two link or three link structures is commonly used due to their low degrees-of-freedom (DOF) movement. As the DOF of robotic arm increased, complexity increases. Instrumentation involved with robotics plays very important role in order to interact with outer environment. In this work, optimal control for movement of various DOFs of robotic arm using various soft computing techniques has been presented. We have discussed about different robotic structures having various DOF robotics arm movement. Further stress is on kinematics of the arm structures i.e. forward kinematics and inverse kinematics. Trajectory planning of robotic arms using soft computing techniques is demonstrating the flexibility of this technique. The performance is optimized for all possible input values and results in optimized movement as resultant output. In conclusion, soft computing has been playing very important role for achieving optimized movement of robotic arm. It also requires very limited knowledge of the system to implement soft computing techniques.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, kinematics, robotic arm, neural networks, fuzzy logic.

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496 A Survey on Opportunistic Routing in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

Authors: R. Poonkuzhali, M. Y. Sanavullah, A. Sabari, T. Dhivyaa

Abstract:

Opportunistic Routing (OR) increases the transmission reliability and network throughput. Traditional routing protocols preselects one or more predetermined nodes before transmission starts and uses a predetermined neighbor to forward a packet in each hop. The opportunistic routing overcomes the drawback of unreliable wireless transmission by broadcasting one transmission can be overheard by manifold neighbors. The first cooperation-optimal protocol for Multirate OR (COMO) used to achieve social efficiency and prevent the selfish behavior of the nodes. The novel link-correlation-aware OR improves the performance by exploiting the miscellaneous low correlated forward links. Context aware Adaptive OR (CAOR) uses active suppression mechanism to reduce packet duplication. The Context-aware OR (COR) can provide efficient routing in mobile networks. By using Cooperative Opportunistic Routing in Mobile Ad hoc Networks (CORMAN), the problem of opportunistic data transfer can be tackled. While comparing to all the protocols, COMO is the best as it achieves social efficiency and prevents the selfish behavior of the nodes.

Keywords: CAOR, COMO, COR, CORMAN, MANET, Opportunistic Routing, Reliability, Throughput.

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495 Adaptive Image Transmission with P-V Diversity in Multihop Wireless Mesh Networks

Authors: Wei Wang, Dongming Peng, Honggang Wang, Hamid Sharif

Abstract:

Multirate multimedia delivery applications in multihop Wireless Mesh Network (WMN) are data redundant and delay-sensitive, which brings a lot of challenges for designing efficient transmission systems. In this paper, we propose a new cross layer resource allocation scheme to minimize the receiver side distortion within the delay bound requirements, by exploring application layer Position and Value (P-V) diversity as well as the multihop Effective Capacity (EC). We specifically consider image transmission optimization here. First of all, the maximum supportable source traffic rate is identified by exploring the multihop Effective Capacity (EC) model. Furthermore, the optimal source coding rate is selected according to the P-V diversity of multirate media streaming, which significantly increases the decoded media quality. Simulation results show the proposed approach improved media quality significantly compared with traditional approaches under the same QoS requirements.

Keywords: Multirate Multimedia Streaming, Effective CapacityMultihop Wireless Mesh Network

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494 A Novel Approach to Improve Users Search Goal in Web Usage Mining

Authors: R. Lokeshkumar, P. Sengottuvelan

Abstract:

Web mining is to discover and extract useful Information. Different users may have different search goals when they search by giving queries and submitting it to a search engine. The inference and analysis of user search goals can be very useful for providing an experience result for a user search query. In this project, we propose a novel approach to infer user search goals by analyzing search web logs. First, we propose a novel approach to infer user search goals by analyzing search engine query logs, the feedback sessions are constructed from user click-through logs and it efficiently reflect the information needed for users. Second we propose a preprocessing technique to clean the unnecessary data’s from web log file (feedback session). Third we propose a technique to generate pseudo-documents to representation of feedback sessions for clustering. Finally we implement k-medoids clustering algorithm to discover different user search goals and to provide a more optimal result for a search query based on feedback sessions for the user.

Keywords: Data Preprocessing, Session Identification, Web log mining, Web Personalization.

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493 Waste to Biofuel by Torrefaction Technology

Authors: Jyh-Cherng Chen, Yu-Zen Lin, Wei-Zhi Chen

Abstract:

Torrefaction is one of waste to energy (WTE) technologies developing in Taiwan recently, which can reduce the moisture and impuritiesand increase the energy density of biowaste effectively.To understand the torrefaction characteristics of different biowaste and the influences of different torrefaction conditions, four typical biowaste were selected to carry out the torrefaction experiments. The physical and chemical properties of different biowaste prior to and after torrefaction were analyzed and compared. Experimental results show that the contents of elemental carbon and caloric value of the four biowaste were significantly increased after torrefaction. The increase of combustible and caloric value in bamboo was the greatest among the four biowaste. The caloric value of bamboo can be increased from 1526 kcal/kg to 6104 kcal/kg after 300oC and 1 hour torrefaction. The caloric valueof torrefied bamboo was almost four times as the original. The increase of elemental carbon content in wood was the greatest (from 41.03% to 75.24%), and the next was bamboo (from 47.07% to 74.63%). The major parameters which affected the caloric value of torrefied biowaste followed the sequence of biowaste kinds, torrefaction time, and torrefaction temperature. The optimal torrefaction conditions of the experiments were bamboo torrefied at 300oC for 3 hours, and the corresponding caloric value of torrefied bamboo was 5953 kcal/kg. This caloric value is similar to that of brown coal or bituminous coal.

Keywords: Torrefaction, waste to energy, calorie, biofuel.

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492 Visualization and Indexing of Spectral Databases

Authors: Tibor Kulcsar, Gabor Sarossy, Gabor Bereznai, Robert Auer, Janos Abonyi

Abstract:

On-line (near infrared) spectroscopy is widely used to support the operation of complex process systems. Information extracted from spectral database can be used to estimate unmeasured product properties and monitor the operation of the process. These techniques are based on looking for similar spectra by nearest neighborhood algorithms and distance based searching methods. Search for nearest neighbors in the spectral space is an NP-hard problem, the computational complexity increases by the number of points in the discrete spectrum and the number of samples in the database. To reduce the calculation time some kind of indexing could be used. The main idea presented in this paper is to combine indexing and visualization techniques to reduce the computational requirement of estimation algorithms by providing a two dimensional indexing that can also be used to visualize the structure of the spectral database. This 2D visualization of spectral database does not only support application of distance and similarity based techniques but enables the utilization of advanced clustering and prediction algorithms based on the Delaunay tessellation of the mapped spectral space. This means the prediction has not to use the high dimension space but can be based on the mapped space too. The results illustrate that the proposed method is able to segment (cluster) spectral databases and detect outliers that are not suitable for instance based learning algorithms.

Keywords: indexing high dimensional databases, dimensional reduction, clustering, similarity, k-nn algorithm.

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491 Dynamic Self-Scheduling of Pumped-Storage Power Plant in Energy and Ancillary Service Markets Using Sliding Window Technique

Authors: P. Kanakasabapathy, Radhika. S,

Abstract:

In the competitive electricity market environment, the profit of the pumped-storage plant in the energy market can be maximized by operating it as a generator, when market clearing price is high and as a pump, to pump water from lower reservoir to upper reservoir, when the price is low. An optimal self-scheduling plan has been developed for a pumped-storage plant, carried out on weekly basis in order to maximize the profit of the plant, keeping into account of all the major uncertainties such as the sudden ancillary service delivery request and the price forecasting errors. For a pumped storage power plant to operate in a real time market successive self scheduling has to be done by considering the forecast of the day-ahead market and the modified reservoir storage due to the ancillary service request of the previous day. Sliding Window Technique has been used for successive self scheduling to ensure profit for the plant.

Keywords: Ancillary services, BPSO, Power System Economics (Electricity markets), Self-Scheduling, Sliding Window Technique.

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490 Numerical Analysis of the SIR-SI Differential Equations with Application to Dengue Disease Mapping in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Authors: N. A. Samat, D. F. Percy

Abstract:

The main aim of this study is to describe and introduce a method of numerical analysis in obtaining approximate solutions for the SIR-SI differential equations (susceptible-infectiverecovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) that represent a model for dengue disease transmission. Firstly, we describe the ordinary differential equations for the SIR-SI disease transmission models. Then, we introduce the numerical analysis of solutions of this continuous time, discrete space SIR-SI model by simplifying the continuous time scale to a densely populated, discrete time scale. This is followed by the application of this numerical analysis of solutions of the SIR-SI differential equations to the estimation of relative risk using continuous time, discrete space dengue data of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Finally, we present the results of the analysis, comparing and displaying the results in graphs, table and maps. Results of the numerical analysis of solutions that we implemented offers a useful and potentially superior model for estimating relative risks based on continuous time, discrete space data for vector borne infectious diseases specifically for dengue disease. 

Keywords: Dengue disease, disease mapping, numerical analysis, SIR-SI differential equations.

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489 Optimization of Two-Stage Pretreatment Combined with Microwave Radiation Using Response Surface Methodology

Authors: Jidapa Manaso, Apanee Luengnaruemitchai, Sujitra Wongkasemjit

Abstract:

Pretreatment is an essential step in the conversion of lignocellulosic biomass to fermentable sugar that used for biobutanol production. Among pretreatment processes, microwave is considered to improve pretreatment efficiency due to its high heating efficiency, easy operation, and easily to combine with chemical reaction. The main objectives of this work are to investigate the feasibility of microwave pretreatment to enhance enzymatic hydrolysis of corncobs and to determine the optimal conditions using response surface methodology. Corncobs were pretreated via two-stage pretreatment in dilute sodium hydroxide (2 %) followed by dilute sulfuric acid 1 %. Pretreated corncobs were subjected to enzymatic hydrolysis to produce reducing sugar. Statistical experimental design was used to optimize pretreatment parameters including temperature, residence time and solid-to-liquid ratio to achieve the highest amount of glucose. The results revealed that solid-to-liquid ratio and temperature had a significant effect on the amount of glucose.

Keywords: Corncobs, Microwave radiation, Pretreatment, Response Surface Methodology.

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488 Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship and Insilco Docking of Substituted 1,3,4-Oxadiazole Derivatives as Potential Glucosamine-6-Phosphate Synthase Inhibitors

Authors: Suman Bala, Sunil Kamboj, Vipin Saini

Abstract:

Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) analysis has been developed to relate antifungal activity of novel substituted 1,3,4-oxadiazole against Candida albicans and Aspergillus niger using computer assisted multiple regression analysis. The study has shown the better relationship between antifungal activities with respect to various descriptors established by multiple regression analysis. The analysis has shown statistically significant correlation with R2 values 0.932 and 0.782 against Candida albicans and Aspergillus niger respectively. These derivatives were further subjected to molecular docking studies to investigate the interactions between the target compounds and amino acid residues present in the active site of glucosamine-6-phosphate synthase. All the synthesized compounds have better docking score as compared to standard fluconazole. Our results could be used for the further design as well as development of optimal and potential antifungal agents.

Keywords: 1, 3, 4-Oxadiazole, QSAR, Multiple linear regression, Docking, Glucosamine-6-Phosphate Synthase.

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487 Neural Networks and Particle Swarm Optimization Based MPPT for Small Wind Power Generator

Authors: Chun-Yao Lee, Yi-Xing Shen, Jung-Cheng Cheng, Yi-Yin Li, Chih-Wen Chang

Abstract:

This paper proposes the method combining artificial neural network (ANN) with particle swarm optimization (PSO) to implement the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) by controlling the rotor speed of the wind generator. First, the measurements of wind speed, rotor speed of wind power generator and output power of wind power generator are applied to train artificial neural network and to estimate the wind speed. Second, the method mentioned above is applied to estimate and control the optimal rotor speed of the wind turbine so as to output the maximum power. Finally, the result reveals that the control system discussed in this paper extracts the maximum output power of wind generator within the short duration even in the conditions of wind speed and load impedance variation.

Keywords: Maximum power point tracking, artificial neuralnetwork, particle swarm optimization.

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486 Variation of Spot Price and Profits of Andhra Pradesh State Grid in Deregulated Environment

Authors: Chava Sunil Kumar, P.S. Subrahmanyan, J. Amarnath

Abstract:

In this paper variation of spot price and total profits of the generating companies- through wholesale electricity trading are discussed with and without Central Generating Stations (CGS) share and seasonal variations are also considered. It demonstrates how proper analysis of generators- efficiencies and capabilities, types of generators owned, fuel costs, transmission losses and settling price variation using the solutions of Optimal Power Flow (OPF), can allow companies to maximize overall revenue. It illustrates how solutions of OPF can be used to maximize companies- revenue under different scenarios. And is also extended to computation of Available Transfer Capability (ATC) is very important to the transmission system security and market forecasting. From these results it is observed that how crucial it is for companies to plan their daily operations and is certainly useful in an online environment of deregulated power system. In this paper above tasks are demonstrated on 124 bus real-life Indian utility power system of Andhra Pradesh State Grid and results have been presented and analyzed.

Keywords: OPF, ATC, Electricity Market, Bid, Spot Price

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485 Beam Orientation Optimization Using Ant Colony Optimization in Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy

Authors: Xi Pei, Ruifen Cao, Hui Liu, Chufeng Jin, Mengyun Cheng, Huaqing Zheng, Yican Wu, FDS Team

Abstract:

In intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) treatment planning, beam angles are usually preselected on the basis of experience and intuition. Therefore, getting an appropriate beam configuration needs a very long time. Based on the present situation, the paper puts forward beam orientation optimization using ant colony optimization (ACO). We use ant colony optimization to select the beam configurations, after getting the beam configuration using Conjugate Gradient (CG) algorithm to optimize the intensity profiles. Combining with the information of the effect of pencil beam, we can get the global optimal solution accelerating. In order to verify the feasibility of the presented method, a simulated and clinical case was tested, compared with dose-volume histogram and isodose line between target area and organ at risk. The results showed that the effect was improved after optimizing beam configurations. The optimization approach could make treatment planning meet clinical requirements more efficiently, so it had extensive application perspective.

Keywords: intensity modulated radiation therapy, ant colonyoptimization, Conjugate Gradient algorithm

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484 Investigation on Performance of Change Point Algorithm in Time Series Dynamical Regimes and Effect of Data Characteristics

Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi

Abstract:

In this paper, Bayesian online inference in models of data series are constructed by change-points algorithm, which separated the observed time series into independent series and study the change and variation of the regime of the data with related statistical characteristics. variation of statistical characteristics of time series data often represent separated phenomena in the some dynamical system, like a change in state of brain dynamical reflected in EEG signal data measurement or a change in important regime of data in many dynamical system. In this paper, prediction algorithm for studying change point location in some time series data is simulated. It is verified that pattern of proposed distribution of data has important factor on simpler and smother fluctuation of hazard rate parameter and also for better identification of change point locations. Finally, the conditions of how the time series distribution effect on factors in this approach are explained and validated with different time series databases for some dynamical system.

Keywords: Time series, fluctuation in statistical characteristics, optimal learning.

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483 Three-Stage Mining Metals Supply Chain Coordination and Product Quality Improvement with Revenue Sharing Contract

Authors: Hamed Homaei, Iraj Mahdavi, Ali Tajdin

Abstract:

One of the main concerns of miners is to increase the quality level of their products because the mining metals price depends on their quality level; however, increasing the quality level of these products has different costs at different levels of the supply chain. These costs usually increase after extractor level. This paper studies the coordination issue of a decentralized three-level supply chain with one supplier (extractor), one mineral processor and one manufacturer in which the increasing product quality level cost at the processor level is higher than the supplier and at the level of the manufacturer is more than the processor. We identify the optimal product quality level for each supply chain member by designing a revenue sharing contract. Finally, numerical examples show that the designed contract not only increases the final product quality level but also provides a win-win condition for all supply chain members and increases the whole supply chain profit.

Keywords: Three-stage supply chain, product quality improvement, channel coordination, revenue sharing.

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482 Continuous Functions Modeling with Artificial Neural Network: An Improvement Technique to Feed the Input-Output Mapping

Authors: A. Belayadi, A. Mougari, L. Ait-Gougam, F. Mekideche-Chafa

Abstract:

The artificial neural network is one of the interesting techniques that have been advantageously used to deal with modeling problems. In this study, the computing with artificial neural network (CANN) is proposed. The model is applied to modulate the information processing of one-dimensional task. We aim to integrate a new method which is based on a new coding approach of generating the input-output mapping. The latter is based on increasing the neuron unit in the last layer. Accordingly, to show the efficiency of the approach under study, a comparison is made between the proposed method of generating the input-output set and the conventional method. The results illustrated that the increasing of the neuron units, in the last layer, allows to find the optimal network’s parameters that fit with the mapping data. Moreover, it permits to decrease the training time, during the computation process, which avoids the use of computers with high memory usage.

Keywords: Neural network computing, information processing, input-output mapping, training time, computers with high memory.

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481 The Pressure Losses in the Model of Human Lungs

Authors: Michaela Chovancova, Pavel Niedoba

Abstract:

For the treatment of acute and chronic lung diseases it is preferred to deliver medicaments by inhalation. The drug is delivered directly to tracheobronchial tree. This way allows the given medicament to get directly into the place of action and it makes rapid onset of action and maximum efficiency. The transport of aerosol particles in the particular part of the lung is influenced by their size, anatomy of the lungs, breathing pattern and airway resistance. This article deals with calculation of airway resistance in the lung model of Horsfield. It solves the problem of determination of the pressure losses in bifurcation and thus defines the pressure drop at a given location in the bronchial tree. The obtained data will be used as boundary conditions for transport of aerosol particles in a central part of bronchial tree realized by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approach. The results obtained from CFD simulation will allow us to provide information on the required particle size and optimal inhalation technique for particle transport into particular part of the lung.

Keywords: Human lungs, bronchial tree, pressure losses, airways resistance, flow, breathing.

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480 PI Controller for Automatic Generation Control Based on Performance Indices

Authors: Kalyan Chatterjee

Abstract:

The optimal design of PI controller for Automatic Generation Control in two area is presented in this paper. The concept of Dual mode control is applied in the PI controller, such that the proportional mode is made active when the rate of change of the error is sufficiently larger than a specified limit otherwise switched to the integral mode. A digital simulation is used in conjunction with the Hooke-Jeeve’s optimization technique to determine the optimum parameters (individual gain of proportional and integral controller) of the PI controller. Integrated Square of the Error (ISE), Integrated Time multiplied by Absolute Error(ITAE) , and Integrated Absolute Error(IAE) performance indices are considered to measure the appropriateness of the designed controller.  The proposed controller are tested for a two area single nonreheat thermal system considering the practical aspect of the problem such as Deadband and Generation Rate Constraint(GRC). Simulation results show that  dual mode with optimized values of the gains improved the control performance than the commonly used Variable Structure .

Keywords: Load Frequency Control, Area Control Error(ACE), Dual Mode PI Controller, Performance Index

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479 Some Peculiarities of Growth and Functional Activity of Escherichia coli Strain from Probiotic Formula “ASAP“

Authors: Marine A. Balayan, Susanna S. Mirzabekyan, Marine Isajanyan, Zaven S. Pepoyan, Аrmen H. Trchounian, Аstghik Z. Pepoyan, Helena Bujdakova

Abstract:

It has been shown that pH 7,3 and 37 0C are the optimal condition for the growth of E. coli “ASAP". The cells grow well on Glucose, Lactose, D-Mannitol, D-Sorbitol, (+)-Xylose, L- (+)-Arabinose and Dulcitol. No growth has been observed on Sucrose, Inositol, Phenylalanine, and Tryptophan. The strain is sensitive to a range of antibiotics. The present study has demonstrated that E. coli “ASAP" inhibit the growth of S. enterica ATCC #700931 in vitro. The studies on conjugating activity has revealed no conjugant of E. coli “ASAP" with plasmid strains E. coli G35#59 and S. enterica ATCC #700931. On the other hand, the conjugants with low frequencies were obtained from E. coli “ASAP" with E. coli G35#61, and E. coli “ASAP" with randomly chosen isolate from healthy human gut microflora: E. coli E6. The results of present study have demonstrated improvements in gut microflora condition of patients with different diseases after the administration of “ASAP"

Keywords: E. coli, ASAP, Probiotic formula, gut microflora.

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478 Combining the Deep Neural Network with the K-Means for Traffic Accident Prediction

Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

Abstract:

Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to prevent deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network. 

Keywords: Accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, K-mean, road safety.

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477 Fuzzy EOQ Models for Deteriorating Items with Stock Dependent Demand and Non-Linear Holding Costs

Authors: G. C. Mahata, A. Goswami

Abstract:

This paper deals with infinite time horizon fuzzy Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) models for deteriorating items with  stock dependent demand rate and nonlinear holding costs by taking deterioration rate θ0 as a triangular fuzzy number  (θ0 −δ 1, θ0, θ0 +δ 2), where 1 2 0 0 <δ ,δ <θ are fixed real numbers. The traditional parameters such as unit cost and ordering  cost have been kept constant but holding cost is considered to vary. Two possibilities of variations in the holding cost function namely, a non-linear function of the length of time for which the item is held in stock and a non-linear function of the amount of on-hand inventory have been used in the models. The approximate optimal solution for the fuzzy cost functions in both these cases have been obtained and the effect of non-linearity in holding costs is studied with the help of a numerical example.

Keywords: Inventory Model, Deterioration, Holding Cost, Fuzzy Total Cost, Extension Principle.

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