Search results for: language learning strategies

Authors: Mohammad Hassanzadeh

Abstract:

As far as incidental vocabulary learning is concerned, the basic contention of the Involvement Load Hypothesis (ILH) is that retention of unfamiliar words is, generally, conditional upon the degree of involvement in processing them. This study examined input modality and incidental vocabulary uptake in a task-induced setting whereby three variously loaded task types (marginal glosses, fill-in-task, and sentence-writing) were alternately assigned to one group of students at Allameh Tabataba’i University (n=2l) during six classroom sessions. While one round of exposure was comprised of the audiovisual medium (TV talk shows), the second round consisted of textual materials with approximately similar subject matter (reading texts). In both conditions, however, the tasks were equivalent to one another. Taken together, the study pursued the dual objectives of establishing a litmus test for the ILH and its proposed values of ‘need’, ‘search’ and ‘evaluation’ in the first place. Secondly, it sought to bring to light the superiority issue of exposure to audiovisual input versus the written input as far as the incorporation of tasks is concerned. At the end of each treatment session, a vocabulary active recall test was administered to measure their incidental gains. Running a one-way analysis of variance revealed that the audiovisual intervention yielded higher gains than the written version even when differing tasks were included. Meanwhile, task 'three' (sentence-writing) turned out the most efficient in tapping learners' active recall of the target vocabulary items. In addition to shedding light on the superiority of audiovisual input over the written input when circumstances are relatively held constant, this study for the most part, did support the underlying tenets of ILH.

Keywords: Evaluation, incidental vocabulary learning, input mode, involvement load hypothesis, need, search.

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Authors: Rosalba D'onofrio

Abstract:

It is not easy to imagine how the existing city can be converted to the principles of sustainability, however, the need for innovation, requires a pioneering phase which must address the main problems of rehabilitation of the operating models of the city. Today, however, there is a growing awareness that the identification and implementation of policies and measures to promote the adaptation, resilience and reversibility of the city, require the contribution of our discipline. This breakthrough is present in some recent international experiences of Climate Plans, in which the envisaged measures are closely interwoven with those of urban planning. These experiences, provide some answers principle questions, such as: how the strategies to combat climate can be integrated in the instruments of the local government; what new and specific analysis must be introduced in urban planning in order to understand the issues of urban sustainability, and how the project compares with different spatial scales.

Keywords: Climate change, urban sustainability, urban planning

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Authors: Haiyan Wang

Abstract:

Micro-reading is a new way of reading depended on short messages of mobile phones, network articles and short literary forms, which impacts greatly on traditional way of reading. The effect of "micro-reading" is deeper especially for those growing middle school students and college students. Aiming at the problem with the development of college students' micro-reading and based on the influence of schema theory on the research of cognition of reading, this paper is to analyze the comparison between micro-reading and traditional reading and explore reading strategies in micro-era based on the negative and positive effect which schema theory has on micro-reading.

Keywords: Schema theory, comparative analysis, micro-reading, traditional reading

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Authors: Nomataru P. Gontse, Lavanithum Joseph

Abstract:

Deafness coupled with a lack of support and resources in developing countries poses a serious threat to the well- being of children. The mismatch between the needs of persons with disabilities and the resources available to them is a key factor in service provision in resource constrained contexts. Furthermore, deafness in children is the most common childhood sensory disorder in developing countries, and as such seriously affected with regard to resource constraints. This paper discusses the issues and research protocol for a Ph.D. study that aims to develop a practice guideline that is contextually sensitive and includes an interdisciplinary approach that will improve the outcomes of learners and the relationships in hearing households with deaf learners in rural areas of the Eastern Cape, one of the poorest provinces in South Africa. The guideline developed will consider the lived experiences of deaf children and their hearing families on the impact deafness has on their relationships and communication at home. Ethical clearance for the study has been obtained. The methodology is a mixed-methods approach in the form of a survey using questionnaires and semi-structured interviews with deaf learners in primary and high school and their hearing parents to get their perspective on the impact deafness has on their relationships and communication at home. The study is conducted using adolescent learners from Grades 7 to 12 (excluding learners younger than 12 years and older than 21 years). An audiologist, teachers, and support staff will also give their views on how the intervention is currently done and possible suggestions on how management can be done differently. Data collection will be conducted in isiXhosa by the researcher, as isiXhosa is dominant in this region. The interviews will be conducted in South African Sign Language by the sign language interpreter for deaf learners and educational professionals. An expected outcome for this study is the development of recommendations and a practice guideline for deaf children diagnosed late from rural or under-resourced environments. To ensure the implementation of the findings, in the end, professionals will be given feedback on the outcomes of the study so that they can identify areas within their practices that require updated knowledge. The developed guideline is expected to have an impact on the Department of Education policies both regionally and nationally, providing recommendations for a strategic management plan and practice guidelines for this vulnerable and marginalized population. The IsiXhosa specific context could be generalized to other similar contexts.

Keywords: Deafness, family-centred approach, early identification, rural communities.

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Authors: El-Said Badr, Mahmoud Moussa, Konstantinos Paparrizos, Nikolaos Samaras, Angelo Sifaleras

Abstract:

There are two major variants of the Simplex Algorithm: the revised method and the standard, or tableau method. Today, all serious implementations are based on the revised method because it is more efficient for sparse linear programming problems. Moreover, there are a number of applications that lead to dense linear problems so our aim in this paper is to present some computational results on parallel implementation of dense Simplex Method. Our implementation is implemented on a SMP cluster using C programming language and the Message Passing Interface MPI. Preliminary computational results on randomly generated dense linear programs support our results.

Keywords: Linear Programming, MPI, Parallel Implementation, Simplex Algorithm.

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Authors: Ahmet Denker, Hakan Gürkan

Abstract:

Defense and Aerospace environment is continuously striving to keep up with increasingly sophisticated Information Technology (IT) in order to remain effective in today-s dynamic and unpredictable threat environment. This makes IT one of the largest and fastest growing expenses of Defense. Hundreds of millions of dollars spent a year on IT projects. But, too many of those millions are wasted on costly mistakes. Systems that do not work properly, new components that are not compatible with old ones, trendy new applications that do not really satisfy defense needs or lost through poorly managed contracts. This paper investigates and compiles the effective strategies that aim to end exasperation with low returns and high cost of Information Technology acquisition for defense; it tries to show how to maximize value while reducing time and expenditure.

Keywords: Iterative process, acquisition management, project management, software economics, requirement analysis.

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Authors: Michael Harre, Terry Bossomaier, Ranqing Chu, Allan Snyder

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We introduce a novel approach to measuring how humans learn based on techniques from information theory and apply it to the oriental game of Go. We show that the total amount of information observable in human strategies, called the strategic information, remains constant for populations of players of differing skill levels for well studied patterns of play. This is despite the very large amount of knowledge required to progress from the recreational players at one end of our spectrum to the very best and most experienced players in the world at the other and is in contrast to the idea that having more knowledge might imply more 'certainty' in what move to play next. We show this is true for very local up to medium sized board patterns, across a variety of different moves using 80,000 game records. Consequences for theoretical and practical AI are outlined.

Keywords: Board Games, Cognitive Capacity, Decision Theory, Information Theory.

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Authors: Wookuen Shin, Gregory R. Miller, Pedro Arduino, Peter Mackenzie-Helnwein

Abstract:

This paper presents strategies for dynamically creating, managing and removing mesh cells during computations in the context of the Material Point Method (MPM). The dynamic meshing approach has been developed to help address problems involving motion of a finite size body in unbounded domains in which the extent of material travel and deformation is unknown a priori, such as in the case of landslides and debris flows. The key idea is to efficiently instantiate and search only cells that contain material points, thereby avoiding unneeded storage and computation. Mechanisms for doing this efficiently are presented, and example problems are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of dynamic mesh management relative to alternative approaches.

Keywords: Numerical Analysis, Material Point Method, Large Deformations, Moving Boundaries.

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Authors: Sitalakshmi Venkataraman

Abstract:

Recent scientific investigations indicate that multimodal biometrics overcome the technical limitations of unimodal biometrics, making them ideally suited for everyday life applications that require a reliable authentication system. However, for a successful adoption of multimodal biometrics, such systems would require large heterogeneous datasets with complex multimodal fusion and privacy schemes spanning various distributed environments. From experimental investigations of current multimodal systems, this paper reports the various issues related to speed, error-recovery and privacy that impede the diffusion of such systems in real-life. This calls for a robust mechanism that caters to the desired real-time performance, robust fusion schemes, interoperability and adaptable privacy policies. The main objective of this paper is to present a framework that addresses the abovementioned issues by leveraging on the heterogeneous resource sharing capacities of Grid services and the efficient machine learning capabilities of artificial neural networks (ANN). Hence, this paper proposes a Grid-based neural network framework for adopting multimodal biometrics with the view of overcoming the barriers of performance, privacy and risk issues that are associated with shared heterogeneous multimodal data centres. The framework combines the concept of Grid services for reliable brokering and privacy policy management of shared biometric resources along with a momentum back propagation ANN (MBPANN) model of machine learning for efficient multimodal fusion and authentication schemes. Real-life applications would be able to adopt the proposed framework to cater to the varying business requirements and user privacies for a successful diffusion of multimodal biometrics in various day-to-day transactions.

Keywords: Back Propagation, Grid Services, MultimodalBiometrics, Neural Networks.

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Authors: K. Benamrane, T. Abdelkrim, T. Benslimane, Aeh. Benkhelifa, B. Bezza

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This paper presents a comparison between two Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) algorithms applied to a three-level Neutral Point Clamped (NPC) Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). The first algorithm applied is the triangular-sinusoidal strategy; the second is the Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) strategy. In the first part, we present a topology of three-level NCP VSI. After that, we develop the two PWM strategies to control this converter. At the end the experimental results are presented.

Keywords: Multilevel inverter, Space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM), triangular-sinusoidal strategy.

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Authors: Elisa Pautasso, Matteo Castagno, Michele Osella

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In the last decade the emergence of new social needs as an effect of the economic crisis has stimulated the flourishing of business endeavours characterised by explicit social goals. Social start-ups, social enterprises or Corporate Social Responsibility operations carried out by traditional companies are quintessential examples in this regard. This paper analyses these kinds of initiatives in order to discover the main characteristics of social business models and to provide insights to social entrepreneurs for developing or improving their strategies. The research is conducted through the integration of literature review and case study analysis and, thanks to the recognition of the importance of both profits and social impacts as the key success factors for a social business model, proposes a framework for identifying indicators suitable for measuring the social impacts generated.

Keywords: Business model, case study, impacts, social business.

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Authors: José M. Merigó, Anna M. Gil-Lafuente

Abstract:

We study different types of aggregation operators such as the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator and the generalized OWA (GOWA) operator. We analyze the use of OWA operators in the Minkowski distance. We will call these new distance aggregation operator the Minkowski ordered weighted averaging distance (MOWAD) operator. We give a general overview of this type of generalization and study some of their main properties. We also analyze a wide range of particular cases found in this generalization such as the ordered weighted averaging distance (OWAD) operator, the Euclidean ordered weighted averaging distance (EOWAD) operator, the normalized Minkowski distance, etc. Finally, we give an illustrative example of the new approach where we can see the different results obtained by using different aggregation operators.

Keywords: Aggregation operators, Minkowski distance, OWA operators, Selection of strategies.

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Authors: Lynne Chester

Abstract:

Governments around the world are expending considerable time and resources framing strategies and policies to deliver energy security. The term 'energy security' has quietly slipped into the energy lexicon without any meaningful discourse about its meaning or assumptions. An examination of explicit and inferred definitions finds that the concept is inherently slippery because it is polysemic in nature having multiple dimensions and taking on different specificities depending on the country (or continent), timeframe or energy source to which it is applied. But what does this mean for policymakers? Can traditional policy approaches be used to address the problem of energy security or does its- polysemic qualities mean that it should be treated as a 'wicked' problem? To answer this question, the paper assesses energy security against nine commonly cited characteristics of wicked policy problems and finds strong evidence of 'wickedness'.

Keywords: Energy security, policy making, wicked problems.

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Authors: Na Li

Abstract:

This paper describes a new measuring algorithm for three-dimensional (3-D) braided composite material .Braided angle is an important parameter of braided composites. The objective of this paper is to present an automatic measuring system. In the paper, the algorithm is performed by using vcµ6.0 language on PC. An advanced filtered algorithm for image of 3-D braided composites material performs has been developed. The procedure is completely automatic and relies on the gray scale information content of the images and their local wavelet transform modulus maxims. Experimental results show that the proposed method is feasible. The algorithm was tested on both carbon-fiber and glass-fiber performs.

Keywords: Three-Dimensional composite material, Mathematical morphology.

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Authors: N. Sefiani, C. Fikri Benbrahim, A. Boumane, K. Reklaoui

Abstract:

Nowadays, the reflection on competence management is the basic for new competitive strategies. It is considered as the core of the problems of the global supply chain. It interact a variety of actors: information, physical and activities flows, etc. Even though competence management is seen as the key factor for any business success, the existing approaches demonstrate the deficiencies and limitations of the competence concept. This research has two objectives: The first is to make a contribution by focusing on the development of a competence approach, based on continuous improvement. It allows the enterprise to spot key competencies, mobilize them in order to serve its strategic objectives and to develop future competencies. The second is to propose a method to evaluate the Level of Collective Competence. The approach was confirmed through an application carried out at an automotive company.

Keywords: Competencies, approach, continuous improvement, collective competence level, performance indicator.

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Authors: T. Thendral, M. S. Vijaya, S. Karpagavalli

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Tamil handwritten document is taken as a key source of data to identify the writer. Tamil is a classical language which has 247 characters include compound characters, consonants, vowels and special character. Most characters of Tamil are multifaceted in nature. Handwriting is a unique feature of an individual. Writer may change their handwritings according to their frame of mind and this place a risky challenge in identifying the writer. A new discriminative model with pooled features of handwriting is proposed and implemented using support vector machine. It has been reported on 100% of prediction accuracy by RBF and polynomial kernel based classification model.

Keywords: Classification, Feature extraction, Support vector machine, Training, Writer.

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Authors: T. Thendral, M. S. Vijaya, S. Karpagavalli

Abstract:

Tamil handwritten document is taken as a key source of data to identify the writer. Tamil is a classical language which has 247 characters include compound characters, consonants, vowels and special character. Most characters of Tamil are multifaceted in nature. Handwriting is a unique feature of an individual. Writer may change their handwritings according to their frame of mind and this place a risky challenge in identifying the writer. A new discriminative model with pooled features of handwriting is proposed and implemented using support vector machine. It has been reported on 100% of prediction accuracy by RBF and polynomial kernel based classification model.

Keywords: Classification, Feature extraction, Support vector machine, Training, Writer.

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Authors: Bachir Belmadani, Rachid Taleb, Zinelaabidine Boudjema, Adil Yahdou

Abstract:

Carrier-based methods have been used widely for switching of multilevel inverters due to their simplicity, flexibility and reduced computational requirements compared to space vector modulation (SVM). This paper focuses on Multicarrier Sinusoidal Pulse Width Modulation (MCSPWM) strategy for the three phase Five-Level Flying Capacitor Inverter (5LFCI). The inverter is simulated for Induction Motor (IM) load and Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) for output waveforms is observed for different controlling schemes.

Keywords: Flying capacitor inverter, multicarrier sinusoidal pulse width modulation, space vector modulation, total harmonic distortion, induction motor.

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Authors: M. Samaka

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of a software application for Off-line robot task programming and simulation. Such application is designed to assist in robot task planning and to direct manipulator motion on sensor based programmed motion. The concept of the designed programming application is to use the power of the knowledge base for task accumulation. In support of the programming means, an interactive graphical simulation for manipulator kinematics was also developed and integrated into the application as the complimentary factor to the robot programming media. The simulation provides the designer with useful, inexpensive, off-line tools for retain and testing robotics work cells and automated assembly lines for various industrial applications.

Keywords: Robot programming, task-level programming, robot languages, robot simulation, robotics software.

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Authors: Michael Moeti, Khuliso Sigama, Thapelo Samuel Matlala

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One of the principal challenges that the world is confronted with is insecurity. The crime rate is increasing exponentially, and protecting our physical assets, especially in the motorist sector, is becoming impossible when applying our own strength. The need to develop technological solutions that detect and report theft without any human interference is inevitable. This is critical, especially for vehicle owners, to ensure theft detection and speedy identification towards recovery efforts in cases where a vehicle is missing or attempted theft is taking place. The vehicle theft detection system uses Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to recognize the driver's face captured using an installed mobile phone device. The location identification function uses a Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine the real-time location of the vehicle. Upon identification of the location, Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) technology is used to report or notify the vehicle owner about the whereabouts of the vehicle. The installed mobile app was implemented by making use of Python as it is undoubtedly the best choice in machine learning. It allows easy access to machine learning algorithms through its widely developed library ecosystem. The graphical user interface was developed by making use of JAVA as it is better suited for mobile development. Google's online database (Firebase) was used as a means of storage for the application. The system integration test was performed using a simple percentage analysis. 60 vehicle owners participated in this study as a sample, and questionnaires were used in order to establish the acceptability of the system developed. The result indicates the efficiency of the proposed system, and consequently, the paper proposes that the use of the system can effectively monitor the vehicle at any given place, even if it is driven outside its normal jurisdiction. More so, the system can be used as a database to detect, locate and report missing vehicles to different security agencies.

Keywords: Convolutional Neural Network, CNN, location identification, tracking, GPS, GSM.

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Authors: Lara L. Barbosa, Marco Imperadori

Abstract:

This article aims to define strategies for applying innovative technology so that housing in regions subject to floods can be more resilient to disasters. Based on case studies of seven amphibious and floating projects, it proposes design guidelines to implement this practice. Its originality consists of transposing a technology developed for fluctuating buildings for housing types in regions affected by flood disasters. The proposal could be replicated in other contexts, endowing vulnerable households with ability to resist rising water levels after a flood. The results of this study are design guidelines to adapt for houses in areas subject to flooding, contributing to the mitigation of this disaster.

Keywords: Amphibious housing, disaster resilience, floating architecture, flood mitigation, post-disaster reconstruction.

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Authors: Zeynep Orhan, Zeynep Altan

Abstract:

Word sense disambiguation is an important intermediate stage for many natural language processing applications. The senses of an ambiguous word are the classification of usages for that specific word. This paper deals with the methodologies of determining the senses for a given word if they can not be obtained from an already available resource like WordNet. We offer a method that helps us to determine the sense boundaries gradually. In this method, first we decide on some features that are thought to be effective on the senses and divide the instances first into two, then according to the results of evaluations we continue dividing instances gradually. In a second method we use the pseudo words. We devise artificial words depending on some criteria and evaluate classification algorithms on these previously classified words.

Keywords: Word sense disambiguation, sense determination, pseudo words, sense granularity.

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Authors: Cristian F.T. Montenegro, Luís F. N. Lourenço, Maurício B. C. Salles, Renato M. Monaro

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More PV systems have been connected to the electrical network each year. As the number of PV systems increases, some issues affecting grid operations have been identified. This paper studied the impacts related to changes in solar irradiance on a distribution/sub-transmission network, considering variations due to moving clouds and daily cycles. Using MATLAB/Simulink software, a solar farm of 30 MWp was built and then implemented to a test network. From simulations, it has been determined that irradiance changes can have a significant impact on the grid by causing voltage fluctuations outside the allowable thresholds. This work discussed some local control strategies and grid reinforcements to mitigate the negative effects of the irradiance changes on the grid.

Keywords: Utility-scale PV systems, reactive power control, solar irradiance, voltage fluctuation.

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Authors: Khababa Abdallah, Touahria Mohamed, Frécon Louis

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The school / university orientation interests a broad and often badly informed public. Technically, it is an important multicriterion decision problem, which supposes the combination of much academic professional and/or lawful knowledge, which in turn justifies software resorting to the techniques of Artificial Intelligence. CORUS is an expert system of the "Conseil et ORientation Universitaire et Scolaire", based on a knowledge representation language (KRL) with rules and objects, called/ known as Ibn Rochd. CORUS was developed thanks to DéGSE, a workshop of cognitive engineering which supports this LRC. CORUS works out many acceptable solutions for the case considered, and retains the most satisfactory among them. Several versions of CORUS have extended its services gradually.

Keywords: Kknowledge Engineering, Multicriterion Decision, Knowledge-Based Systems.

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Authors: Praloy Kumar Biswas, Prof. Dipanwita Roy Chowdhury

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Grobner basis calculation forms a key part of computational commutative algebra and many other areas. One important ramification of the theory of Grobner basis provides a means to solve a system of non-linear equations. This is why it has become very important in the areas where the solution of non-linear equations is needed, for instance in algebraic cryptanalysis and coding theory. This paper explores on a parallel-distributed implementation for Grobner basis calculation over GF(2). For doing so Buchberger algorithm is used. OpenMP and MPI-C language constructs have been used to implement the scheme. Some relevant results have been furnished to compare the performances between the standalone and hybrid (parallel-distributed) implementation.

Keywords: Grobner basis, Buchberger Algorithm, Distributed- Parallel Computation, OpenMP, MPI.

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Authors: Anna Mirzaiyan, Vahid Parvaresh, Mahmoud Hashemian, Masoud Saeedi

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People usually have a telephone voice, which means they adjust their speech to fit particular situations and to blend in with other interlocutors. The question is: Do we speak differently to different people? This possibility has been suggested by social psychologists within Accommodation Theory [1]. Converging toward the speech of another person can be regarded as a polite speech strategy while choosing a language not used by the other interlocutor can be considered as the clearest example of speech divergence [2]. The present study sets out to investigate such processes in the course of everyday telephone conversations. Using Joos-s [3] model of formality in spoken English, the researchers try to explore convergence to or divergence from the addressee. The results propound the actuality that lexical choice, and subsequently, patterns of style vary intriguingly in concordance with the person being addressed.

Keywords: Convergence, divergence, lexical formality, speechaccommodation.

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Authors: A. Taqaddas

Abstract:

Purpose: This E-survey was carried out to facilitate the implementation and Education of VMAT (Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy) in Radiotherapy-RT departments and reasons for not using IMRT (Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy). VMAT Skills in demand were also identified. Method: E-Survey was distributed to NHS hospitals across UK by email. Thirty NHS and related centres in England, 21 in Scotland, 3 in Ireland and 1 in Wales were contacted. This Survey was intended for those working in RT and Medical Physics and who were responsible for Treatment Planning and training. Results: This E-survey have indicated pathways adopted by staff to acquire VMAT skills, strategies to efficiently implement VMAT in RT departments and for obtaining VMAT Education. Conclusion: Despite poor survey response this survey has managed to highlight requirements for education and implementation of VMAT that are also applicable to IMRT. Other RT centres in world can also find these results useful.

Keywords: IMRT, Radiotherapy, Treatment Planning, VMAT.

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Authors: Sahba Paktinat, Afshin Salajeghe, Mir Ali Seyyedi, Yousef Rastegari

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Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) allows modeling of dynamic interaction between incongruous providers, which enables governing the development of complex applications. However, implementation of SOA comes with some challenges, including its adaptability and robustness. Dynamism is inherent to the nature of service based applications and of their running environment. These factors lead to necessity for dynamic adaptation. In this paper we try to describe basics and main structure of SOA adaptation process with a conceptual view to this issue. In this survey we will review the relevant adaptation approaches. This paper allows studying how different approaches deal with service oriented architecture adaptation life-cycle and provides basic guidelines for their analysis, evaluation and comparison.

Keywords: Context-aware, Dynamic Adaptation, Quality of Services, Service Oriented Architecture, Service Based Application.

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Authors: Juho Lindholm

Abstract:

Practical hermeneutics explores the emergence of meaning in scientific practice. Visual hermeneutics is its subclass which explores the emergence of meaning in instrumentally mediated interactions with scientific objects. There remains to be explained, upon what theory of meaning their discussions are based. Linguistic theories of meaning seem utterly inappropriate for the analysis of the non-linguistic meanings that such hermeneutics invoke. In this article, it will be shown by conceptual analysis that the so-called “pragmatic maxim” provides sufficient resources for the philosophical analysis of such meanings. The “pragmatic maxim” states that the meaning of a thing consists in the potential practical effects of that thing. Because this notion is not confined to language, it can be broadly applied to anything meaningful, including practices and the instruments which are part of practices.

Keywords: Hermeneutics, philosophy of science, pragmatism, theory of meaning.

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Authors: N. Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

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