Search results for: price prediction.
1137 Artificial Neural Networks Modeling in Water Resources Engineering: Infrastructure and Applications
Authors: M. R. Mustafa, M. H. Isa, R. B. Rezaur
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The use of artificial neural network (ANN) modeling for prediction and forecasting variables in water resources engineering are being increasing rapidly. Infrastructural applications of ANN in terms of selection of inputs, architecture of networks, training algorithms, and selection of training parameters in different types of neural networks used in water resources engineering have been reported. ANN modeling conducted for water resources engineering variables (river sediment and discharge) published in high impact journals since 2002 to 2011 have been examined and presented in this review. ANN is a vigorous technique to develop immense relationship between the input and output variables, and able to extract complex behavior between the water resources variables such as river sediment and discharge. It can produce robust prediction results for many of the water resources engineering problems by appropriate learning from a set of examples. It is important to have a good understanding of the input and output variables from a statistical analysis of the data before network modeling, which can facilitate to design an efficient network. An appropriate training based ANN model is able to adopt the physical understanding between the variables and may generate more effective results than conventional prediction techniques.Keywords: ANN, discharge, modeling, prediction, sediment,
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 56631136 Aggregate Angularity on the Permanent Deformation Zones of Hot Mix Asphalt
Authors: Lee P. Leon, Raymond Charles
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This paper presents a method of evaluating the effect of aggregate angularity on hot mix asphalt (HMA) properties and its relationship to the Permanent Deformation resistance. The research concluded that aggregate particle angularity had a significant effect on the Permanent Deformation performance, and also that with an increase in coarse aggregate angularity there was an increase in the resistance of mixes to Permanent Deformation. A comparison between the measured data and predictive data of permanent deformation predictive models showed the limits of existing prediction models. The numerical analysis described the permanent deformation zones and concluded that angularity has an effect of the onset of these zones. Prediction of permanent deformation help road agencies and by extension economists and engineers determine the best approach for maintenance, rehabilitation, and new construction works of the road infrastructure.Keywords: Aggregate angularity, asphalt concrete, permanent deformation, rutting prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20671135 Economic Evaluation of Bowland Shale Gas Wells Development in the UK
Authors: Elijah Acquah-Andoh
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The UK has had its fair share of the shale gas revolutionary waves blowing across the global oil and gas industry at present. Although, its exploitation is widely agreed to have been delayed, shale gas was looked upon favorably by the UK Parliament when they recognized it as genuine energy source and granted licenses to industry to search and extract the resource. This, although a significant progress by industry, there yet remains another test the UK fracking resource must pass in order to render shale gas extraction feasible – it must be economically extractible and sustainably so. Developing unconventional resources is much more expensive and risky, and for shale gas wells, producing in commercial volumes is conditional upon drilling horizontal wells and hydraulic fracturing, techniques which increase CAPEX. Meanwhile, investment in shale gas development projects is sensitive to gas price and technical and geological risks. Using a Two-Factor Model, the economics of the Bowland shale wells were analyzed and the operational conditions under which fracking is profitable in the UK was characterized. We find that there is a great degree of flexibility about Opex spending; hence Opex does not pose much threat to the fracking industry in the UK. However, we discover Bowland shale gas wells fail to add value at gas price of $8/ Mmbtu. A minimum gas price of $12/Mmbtu at Opex of no more than $2/ Mcf and no more than $14.95M Capex are required to create value within the present petroleum tax regime, in the UK fracking industry.Keywords: Capex, economical, investment, profitability, shale gas development, sustainable.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27031134 Electricity Consumption Prediction Model using Neuro-Fuzzy System
Authors: Rahib Abiyev, Vasif H. Abiyev, C. Ardil
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In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.
Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, neuro-fuzzy prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19941133 Traffic Flow Prediction using Adaboost Algorithm with Random Forests as a Weak Learner
Authors: Guy Leshem, Ya'acov Ritov
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Traffic Management and Information Systems, which rely on a system of sensors, aim to describe in real-time traffic in urban areas using a set of parameters and estimating them. Though the state of the art focuses on data analysis, little is done in the sense of prediction. In this paper, we describe a machine learning system for traffic flow management and control for a prediction of traffic flow problem. This new algorithm is obtained by combining Random Forests algorithm into Adaboost algorithm as a weak learner. We show that our algorithm performs relatively well on real data, and enables, according to the Traffic Flow Evaluation model, to estimate and predict whether there is congestion or not at a given time on road intersections.Keywords: Machine Learning, Boosting, Classification, TrafficCongestion, Data Collecting, Magnetic Loop Detectors, SignalizedIntersections, Traffic Signal Timing Optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 38951132 Prediction of the Characteristics of Transformer Oil under Different Operation Conditions
Authors: EL-Sayed M. M. EL-Refaie, Mohamed R. Salem, Wael A. Ahmed
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Power systems and transformer are intrinsic apparatus, therefore its reliability and safe operation is important to determine their operation conditions, and the industry uses quality control tests in the insulation design of oil filled transformers. Hence the service period effect on AC dielectric strength is significant. The effect of aging on transformer oil physical, chemical and electrical properties was studied using the international testing methods for the evaluation of transformer oil quality. The study was carried out on six transformers operate in the field and for monitoring periods over twenty years. The properties which are strongly time dependent were specified and those which have a great impact on the transformer oil acidity, breakdown voltage and dissolved gas analysis were defined. Several tests on the transformers oil were studied to know the time of purifying or changing it, moreover prediction of the characteristics of it under different operation conditions.
Keywords: Dissolved Gas Analysis, Prediction, Purifying and Changing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 37161131 Numerical Prediction of NOX in the Exhaust of a Compression Ignition Engine
Authors: A. A. Pawar, R. R. Kulkarni
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For numerical prediction of the NOX in the exhaust of a compression ignition engine a model was developed by considering the parameter equivalence ratio. This model was validated by comparing the predicted results of NOX with experimental ones. The ultimate aim of the work was to access the applicability, robustness and performance of the improved NOX model against other NOX models.Keywords: Biodiesel fueled engine, equivalence ratio, Compression ignition engine, exhausts gas temperature, NOX formation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20731130 Integration of Educational Data Mining Models to a Web-Based Support System for Predicting High School Student Performance
Authors: Sokkhey Phauk, Takeo Okazaki
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The challenging task in educational institutions is to maximize the high performance of students and minimize the failure rate of poor-performing students. An effective method to leverage this task is to know student learning patterns with highly influencing factors and get an early prediction of student learning outcomes at the timely stage for setting up policies for improvement. Educational data mining (EDM) is an emerging disciplinary field of data mining, statistics, and machine learning concerned with extracting useful knowledge and information for the sake of improvement and development in the education environment. The study is of this work is to propose techniques in EDM and integrate it into a web-based system for predicting poor-performing students. A comparative study of prediction models is conducted. Subsequently, high performing models are developed to get higher performance. The hybrid random forest (Hybrid RF) produces the most successful classification. For the context of intervention and improving the learning outcomes, a feature selection method MICHI, which is the combination of mutual information (MI) and chi-square (CHI) algorithms based on the ranked feature scores, is introduced to select a dominant feature set that improves the performance of prediction and uses the obtained dominant set as information for intervention. By using the proposed techniques of EDM, an academic performance prediction system (APPS) is subsequently developed for educational stockholders to get an early prediction of student learning outcomes for timely intervention. Experimental outcomes and evaluation surveys report the effectiveness and usefulness of the developed system. The system is used to help educational stakeholders and related individuals for intervening and improving student performance.
Keywords: Academic performance prediction system, prediction model, educational data mining, dominant factors, feature selection methods, student performance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 9541129 Discovery of Sequential Patterns Based On Constraint Patterns
Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Youichi Kitahata, Ryohei Orihara
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This paper proposes a method that discovers sequential patterns corresponding to user-s interests from sequential data. This method expresses the interests as constraint patterns. The constraint patterns can define relationships among attributes of the items composing the data. The method recursively decomposes the constraint patterns into constraint subpatterns. The method evaluates the constraint subpatterns in order to efficiently discover sequential patterns satisfying the constraint patterns. Also, this paper applies the method to the sequential data composed of stock price indexes and verifies its effectiveness through comparing it with a method without using the constraint patterns.
Keywords: Sequential pattern mining, Constraint pattern, Attribute constraint, Stock price indexes
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14121128 Modeling Prices of Electricity Futures at EEX
Authors: Robest Flasza, Milan Rippel, Jan Solc
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The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modeling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modeling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts and prices of LT futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX.Keywords: electricity futures, EEX, ARIMAX, emissionallowances
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19961127 Dry Relaxation Shrinkage Prediction of Bordeaux Fiber Using a Feed Forward Neural
Authors: Baeza S. Roberto
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The knitted fabric suffers a deformation in its dimensions due to stretching and tension factors, transverse and longitudinal respectively, during the process in rectilinear knitting machines so it performs a dry relaxation shrinkage procedure and thermal action of prefixed to obtain stable conditions in the knitting. This paper presents a dry relaxation shrinkage prediction of Bordeaux fiber using a feed forward neural network and linear regression models. Six operational alternatives of shrinkage were predicted. A comparison of the results was performed finding neural network models with higher levels of explanation of the variability and prediction. The presence of different reposes is included. The models were obtained through a neural toolbox of Matlab and Minitab software with real data in a knitting company of Southern Guanajuato. The results allow predicting dry relaxation shrinkage of each alternative operation.Keywords: Neural network, dry relaxation, knitting, linear regression.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17491126 A Deep-Learning Based Prediction of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma with Electronic Health Records from the State of Maine
Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen
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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.
Keywords: Cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8141125 Forecast of the Small Wind Turbines Sales with Replacement Purchases and with or without Account of Price Changes
Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin
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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18731124 Aerodynamic Coefficients Prediction from Minimum Computation Combinations Using OpenVSP Software
Authors: Marine Segui, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez
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OpenVSP is an aerodynamic solver developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that allows building a reliable model of an aircraft. This software performs an aerodynamic simulation according to the angle of attack of the aircraft makes between the incoming airstream, and its speed. A reliable aerodynamic model of the Cessna Citation X was designed but it required a lot of computation time. As a consequence, a prediction method was established that allowed predicting lift and drag coefficients for all Mach numbers and for all angles of attack, exclusively for stall conditions, from a computation of three angles of attack and only one Mach number. Aerodynamic coefficients given by the prediction method for a Cessna Citation X model were finally compared with aerodynamics coefficients obtained using a complete OpenVSP study.
Keywords: Aerodynamic, coefficient, cruise, improving, longitudinal, OpenVSP, solver, time.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14241123 Bandwidth, Area Efficient and Target Device Independent DDR SDRAM Controller
Authors: T. Mladenov, F. Mujahid, E. Jung, D. Har
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The application of the synchronous dynamic random access memory (SDRAM) has gone beyond the scope of personal computers for quite a long time. It comes into hand whenever a big amount of low price and still high speed memory is needed. Most of the newly developed stand alone embedded devices in the field of image, video and sound processing take more and more use of it. The big amount of low price memory has its trade off – the speed. In order to take use of the full potential of the memory, an efficient controller is needed. Efficient stands for maximum random accesses to the memory both for reading and writing and less area after implementation. This paper proposes a target device independent DDR SDRAM pipelined controller and provides performance comparison with available solutions.Keywords: DDR SDRAM, controller, effective implementation
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15441122 Dynamic Analyses for Passenger Volume of Domestic Airline and High Speed Rail
Authors: Shih-Ching Lo
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Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption.
Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competition model, external variable, oil price
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14491121 Designing Early Warning System: Prediction Accuracy of Currency Crisis by Using k-Nearest Neighbour Method
Authors: Nor Azuana Ramli, Mohd Tahir Ismail, Hooy Chee Wooi
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Developing a stable early warning system (EWS) model that is capable to give an accurate prediction is a challenging task. This paper introduces k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) method which never been applied in predicting currency crisis before with the aim of increasing the prediction accuracy. The proposed k-NN performance depends on the choice of a distance that is used where in our analysis; we take the Euclidean distance and the Manhattan as a consideration. For the comparison, we employ three other methods which are logistic regression analysis (logit), back-propagation neural network (NN) and sequential minimal optimization (SMO). The analysis using datasets from 8 countries and 13 macro-economic indicators for each country shows that the proposed k-NN method with k = 4 and Manhattan distance performs better than the other methods.
Keywords: Currency crisis, k-nearest neighbour method, logit, neural network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22851120 An Automated Stock Investment System Using Machine Learning Techniques: An Application in Australia
Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves
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A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.
Keywords: Machine learning, stock market trading, logistic principal component analysis, automated stock investment system.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10801119 Sequence-based Prediction of Gamma-turn Types using a Physicochemical Property-based Decision Tree Method
Authors: Chyn Liaw, Chun-Wei Tung, Shinn-Jang Ho, Shinn-Ying Ho
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The γ-turns play important roles in protein folding and molecular recognition. The prediction and analysis of γ-turn types are important for both protein structure predictions and better understanding the characteristics of different γ-turn types. This study proposed a physicochemical property-based decision tree (PPDT) method to interpretably predict γ-turn types. In addition to the good prediction performance of PPDT, three simple and human interpretable IF-THEN rules are extracted from the decision tree constructed by PPDT. The identified informative physicochemical properties and concise rules provide a simple way for discriminating and understanding γ-turn types.Keywords: Classification and regression tree (CART), γ-turn, Physicochemical properties, Protein secondary structure.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15411118 A Comparative Analysis of the Performance of COSMO and WRF Models in Quantitative Rainfall Prediction
Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju
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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.Keywords: Comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15111117 Combining Similarity and Dissimilarity Measurements for the Development of QSAR Models Applied to the Prediction of Antiobesity Activity of Drugs
Authors: Irene Luque Ruiz, Manuel Urbano Cuadrado, Miguel Ángel Gómez-Nieto
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In this paper we study different similarity based approaches for the development of QSAR model devoted to the prediction of activity of antiobesity drugs. Classical similarity approaches are compared regarding to dissimilarity models based on the consideration of the calculation of Euclidean distances between the nonisomorphic fragments extracted in the matching process. Combining the classical similarity and dissimilarity approaches into a new similarity measure, the Approximate Similarity was also studied, and better results were obtained. The application of the proposed method to the development of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) has provided reliable tools for predicting of inhibitory activity of drugs. Acceptable results were obtained for the models presented here.Keywords: Graph similarity, Nonisomorphic dissimilarity, Approximate similarity, Drugs activity prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15501116 Online Prediction of Nonlinear Signal Processing Problems Based Kernel Adaptive Filtering
Authors: Hamza Nejib, Okba Taouali
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This paper presents two of the most knowing kernel adaptive filtering (KAF) approaches, the kernel least mean squares and the kernel recursive least squares, in order to predict a new output of nonlinear signal processing. Both of these methods implement a nonlinear transfer function using kernel methods in a particular space named reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) where the model is a linear combination of kernel functions applied to transform the observed data from the input space to a high dimensional feature space of vectors, this idea known as the kernel trick. Then KAF is the developing filters in RKHS. We use two nonlinear signal processing problems, Mackey Glass chaotic time series prediction and nonlinear channel equalization to figure the performance of the approaches presented and finally to result which of them is the adapted one.Keywords: KLMS, online prediction, KAF, signal processing, RKHS, Kernel methods, KRLS, KLMS.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10431115 Fatigue Life Prediction on Steel Beam Bridges under Variable Amplitude Loading
Authors: M. F. V. Montezuma, E. P. Deus, M. C. Carvalho
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Steel bridges are normally subjected to random loads with different traffic frequencies. They are structures with dynamic behavior and are subject to fatigue failure process, where the nucleation of a crack, growth and failure can occur. After locating and determining the size of an existing fault, it is important to predict the crack propagation and the convenient time for repair. Therefore, fracture mechanics and fatigue concepts are essential to the right approach to the problem. To study the fatigue crack growth, a computational code was developed by using the root mean square (RMS) and the cycle-by-cycle models. One observes the variable amplitude loading influence on the life structural prediction. Different loads histories and initial crack length were considered as input variables. Thus, it was evaluated the dispersion of results of the expected structural life choosing different initial parameters.
Keywords: Fatigue crack propagation, life prediction, variable loadings, steel bridges.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 5071114 Stock Market Prediction by Regression Model with Social Moods
Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome
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This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model, where document topics are extracted using LDA. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.
Keywords: Regression model, social mood, stock market prediction, Twitter.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24261113 Software Maintenance Severity Prediction with Soft Computing Approach
Authors: E. Ardil, Erdem Uçar, Parvinder S. Sandhu
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As the majority of faults are found in a few of its modules so there is a need to investigate the modules that are affected severely as compared to other modules and proper maintenance need to be done on time especially for the critical applications. In this paper, we have explored the different predictor models to NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in Perl programming language. Different machine learning algorithms belonging to the different learner categories of the WEKA project including Mamdani Based Fuzzy Inference System and Neuro-fuzzy based system have been evaluated for the modeling of maintenance severity or impact of fault severity. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provides relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the maintenance severity prediction of the software.Keywords: Software Metrics, Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy, SoftwareFaults, Accuracy, MAE, RMSE.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15721112 The Effect of Maximum Strain on Fatigue Life Prediction for Natural Rubber Material
Authors: Chang S. Woo, Hyun S. Park, Wan D. Kim
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Fatigue life prediction and evaluation are the key technologies to assure the safety and reliability of automotive rubber components. The objective of this study is to develop the fatigue analysis process for vulcanized rubber components, which is applicable to predict fatigue life at initial product design step. Fatigue life prediction methodology of vulcanized natural rubber was proposed by incorporating the finite element analysis and fatigue damage parameter of maximum strain appearing at the critical location determined from fatigue test. In order to develop an appropriate fatigue damage parameter of the rubber material, a series of displacement controlled fatigue test was conducted using threedimensional dumbbell specimen with different levels of mean displacement. It was shown that the maximum strain was a proper damage parameter, taking the mean displacement effects into account. Nonlinear finite element analyses of three-dimensional dumbbell specimens were performed based on a hyper-elastic material model determined from the uni-axial tension, equi-biaxial tension and planar test. Fatigue analysis procedure employed in this study could be used approximately for the fatigue design.Keywords: Rubber, Material test, Finite element analysis, Strain, Fatigue test, Fatigue life prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 46481111 Virulent-GO: Prediction of Virulent Proteins in Bacterial Pathogens Utilizing Gene Ontology Terms
Authors: Chia-Ta Tsai, Wen-Lin Huang, Shinn-Jang Ho, Li-Sun Shu, Shinn-Ying Ho
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Prediction of bacterial virulent protein sequences can give assistance to identification and characterization of novel virulence-associated factors and discover drug/vaccine targets against proteins indispensable to pathogenicity. Gene Ontology (GO) annotation which describes functions of genes and gene products as a controlled vocabulary of terms has been shown effectively for a variety of tasks such as gene expression study, GO annotation prediction, protein subcellular localization, etc. In this study, we propose a sequence-based method Virulent-GO by mining informative GO terms as features for predicting bacterial virulent proteins. Each protein in the datasets used by the existing method VirulentPred is annotated by using BLAST to obtain its homologies with known accession numbers for retrieving GO terms. After investigating various popular classifiers using the same five-fold cross-validation scheme, Virulent-GO using the single kind of GO term features with an accuracy of 82.5% is slightly better than VirulentPred with 81.8% using five kinds of sequence-based features. For the evaluation of independent test, Virulent-GO also yields better results (82.0%) than VirulentPred (80.7%). When evaluating single kind of feature with SVM, the GO term feature performs much well, compared with each of the five kinds of features.Keywords: Bacterial virulence factors, GO terms, prediction, protein sequence.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21791110 Active Intra-ONU Scheduling with Cooperative Prediction Mechanism in EPONs
Authors: Chuan-Ching Sue, Shi-Zhou Chen, Ting-Yu Huang
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Dynamic bandwidth allocation in EPONs can be generally separated into inter-ONU scheduling and intra-ONU scheduling. In our previous work, the active intra-ONU scheduling (AS) utilizes multiple queue reports (QRs) in each report message to cooperate with the inter-ONU scheduling and makes the granted bandwidth fully utilized without leaving unused slot remainder (USR). This scheme successfully solves the USR problem originating from the inseparability of Ethernet frame. However, without proper setting of threshold value in AS, the number of QRs constrained by the IEEE 802.3ah standard is not enough, especially in the unbalanced traffic environment. This limitation may be solved by enlarging the threshold value. The large threshold implies the large gap between the adjacent QRs, thus resulting in the large difference between the best granted bandwidth and the real granted bandwidth. In this paper, we integrate AS with a cooperative prediction mechanism and distribute multiple QRs to reduce the penalty brought by the prediction error. Furthermore, to improve the QoS and save the usage of queue reports, the highest priority (EF) traffic which comes during the waiting time is granted automatically by OLT and is not considered in the requested bandwidth of ONU. The simulation results show that the proposed scheme has better performance metrics in terms of bandwidth utilization and average delay for different classes of packets.Keywords: EPON, Inter-ONU and Intra-ONU scheduling, Prediction, Unused slot remainder
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15851109 Performance Evaluation of Neural Network Prediction for Data Prefetching in Embedded Applications
Authors: Sofien Chtourou, Mohamed Chtourou, Omar Hammami
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Embedded systems need to respect stringent real time constraints. Various hardware components included in such systems such as cache memories exhibit variability and therefore affect execution time. Indeed, a cache memory access from an embedded microprocessor might result in a cache hit where the data is available or a cache miss and the data need to be fetched with an additional delay from an external memory. It is therefore highly desirable to predict future memory accesses during execution in order to appropriately prefetch data without incurring delays. In this paper, we evaluate the potential of several artificial neural networks for the prediction of instruction memory addresses. Neural network have the potential to tackle the nonlinear behavior observed in memory accesses during program execution and their demonstrated numerous hardware implementation emphasize this choice over traditional forecasting techniques for their inclusion in embedded systems. However, embedded applications execute millions of instructions and therefore millions of addresses to be predicted. This very challenging problem of neural network based prediction of large time series is approached in this paper by evaluating various neural network architectures based on the recurrent neural network paradigm with pre-processing based on the Self Organizing Map (SOM) classification technique.Keywords: Address, data set, memory, prediction, recurrentneural network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16671108 Design of an Stable GPC for Nonminimum Phase LTI Systems
Authors: Mahdi Yaghobi, Mohammad Haeri
Abstract:
The current methods of predictive controllers are utilized for those processes in which the rate of output variations is not high. For such processes, therefore, stability can be achieved by implementing the constrained predictive controller or applying infinite prediction horizon. When the rate of the output growth is high (e.g. for unstable nonminimum phase process) the stabilization seems to be problematic. In order to avoid this, it is suggested to change the method in the way that: first, the prediction error growth should be decreased at the early stage of the prediction horizon, and second, the rate of the error variation should be penalized. The growth of the error is decreased through adjusting its weighting coefficients in the cost function. Reduction in the error variation is possible by adding the first order derivate of the error into the cost function. By studying different examples it is shown that using these two remedies together, the closed-loop stability of unstable nonminimum phase process can be achieved.Keywords: GPC, Stability, Varying Weighting Coefficients.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1262