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Designing Early Warning System: Prediction Accuracy of Currency Crisis by Using k-Nearest Neighbour Method

Authors: Mohd Tahir Ismail, Nor Azuana Ramli, Hooy Chee Wooi

Abstract:

Developing a stable early warning system (EWS) model that is capable to give an accurate prediction is a challenging task. This paper introduces k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) method which never been applied in predicting currency crisis before with the aim of increasing the prediction accuracy. The proposed k-NN performance depends on the choice of a distance that is used where in our analysis; we take the Euclidean distance and the Manhattan as a consideration. For the comparison, we employ three other methods which are logistic regression analysis (logit), back-propagation neural network (NN) and sequential minimal optimization (SMO). The analysis using datasets from 8 countries and 13 macro-economic indicators for each country shows that the proposed k-NN method with k = 4 and Manhattan distance performs better than the other methods.

Keywords: Neural Network, Currency Crisis, logit, k-nearest neighbour method

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1087229

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