Search results for: Robust exponential stability

Authors: Bujar Ismaili, Bahti Ismajli, Venhar Ismaili, Skender Ramadani

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In Kosovo, the problem with the electricity supply is huge and it does not meet the demands of consumers. Older thermal power plants, which are regarded as big environmental polluters, produce most of the energy. Our experiment is based on the production of electricity using the closed method that does not affect environmental pollution by using waste as fuel that is considered to pollute the environment. The experiment was carried out in the village of Godanc, municipality of Shtime, Kosovo. In the experiment, a production line based on the production of electricity and central heating was designed at the same time. The results are the benefits of electricity as well as the release of temperature for heating with minimal expenses and with the release of 0% gases into the atmosphere. During this experiment, coal, plastic, waste from wood processing, and agricultural wastes were used as raw materials. The method utilized in the experiment allows for the release of gas through pipes and filters during the top-to-bottom combustion of the raw material in the boiler, followed by the method of gas filtration from waste wood processing (sawdust). During this process, the final product, gas, is obtained. This gas passes through the carburetor, enabling the combustion process to put the internal combustion machine and the generator into operation and produce electricity that does not release gases into the atmosphere. The results show that the system provides energy stability without environmental pollution from toxic substances and waste, as well as with low production costs. From the final results, it follows that, in the case of using coal fuel, we have benefited from more electricity and higher temperature release, followed by plastic waste, which also gave good results. The results obtained during these experiments prove that the current problems of lack of electricity and heating can be met at a lower cost and have a clean environment and waste management.

Keywords: Energy, heating, atmosphere, waste management, gasification.

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Authors: C. Ardil

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In this paper, the comparison of composite programming and compromise programming for the aircraft selection problem is discussed using the multiple criteria decision analysis method. The decision making process requires the prior definition and fulfillment of certain factors, especially when it comes to complex areas such as aircraft selection problems. The proposed technique gives more efficient results by extending the composite programming and compromise programming, which are widely used in modeling multiple criteria decisions. The proposed model is applied to a practical decision problem for evaluating and selecting aircraft problems.A selection of aircraft was made based on the proposed approach developed in the field of multiple criteria decision making. The model presented is solved by using the following methods: composite programming, and compromise programming. The importance values of the weight coefficients of the criteria are calculated using the mean weight method. The evaluation and ranking of aircraft are carried out using the composite programming and compromise programming methods. In order to determine the stability of the model and the ability to apply the developed composite programming and compromise programming approach, the paper analyzes its sensitivity, which involves changing the value of the coefficient λ and q in the first part. The second part of the sensitivity analysis relates to the application of different multiple criteria decision making methods, composite programming and compromise programming. In addition, in the third part of the sensitivity analysis, the Spearman correlation coefficient of the ranks obtained was calculated which confirms the applicability of all the proposed approaches.

Keywords: composite programming, compromise programming, additive weighted model, multiplicative weighted model, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, aircraft selection

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Authors: A. Mínguez-Martínez, J. de Vicente

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Modern manufacturing processes have led to the miniaturization of systems and, as a result, parts at the micro and nanoscale are produced. This trend seems to become increasingly important in the near future. Besides, as a requirement of Industry 4.0, the digitalization of the models of production and processes makes it very important to ensure that the dimensions of newly manufactured parts meet the specifications of the models. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the scrap and the cost of non-conformities, ensuring the stability of the production at the same time. To ensure the quality of manufactured parts, it becomes necessary to carry out traceable measurements at scales lower than one millimeter. Providing adequate traceability to the SI unit of length (the meter) to 2D and 3D measurements at this scale is a problem that does not have a unique solution in industrial environments. Researchers in the field of dimensional metrology all around the world are working on this issue. A solution for industrial environments, even if it is not complete, will enable working with some traceability. At this point, we believe that the study of the surfaces could provide us with a first approximation to a solution. In this paper, we propose a calibration procedure for the scales of optical measuring instruments, particularizing for a confocal microscope, using material standards easy to find and calibrate in metrology and quality laboratories in industrial environments. Confocal microscopes are measuring instruments capable of filtering the out-of-focus reflected light so that when it reaches the detector, it is possible to take pictures of the part of the surface that is focused. Varying and taking pictures at different Z levels of the focus, a specialized software interpolates between the different planes, and it could reconstruct the surface geometry into a 3D model. As it is easy to deduce, it is necessary to give traceability to each axis. As a complementary result, the roughness Ra parameter will be traced to the reference. Although the solution is designed for a confocal microscope, it may be used for the calibration of other optical measuring instruments, by applying minor changes.

Keywords: Industrial environment, confocal microscope, optical measuring instrument, traceability.

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Authors: Karam Y. Maalawi

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This paper presents a generalized formulation for the problem of buckling optimization of anisotropic, radially graded, thin-walled, long cylinders subject to external hydrostatic pressure. The main structure to be analyzed is built of multi-angle fibrous laminated composite lay-ups having different volume fractions of the constituent materials within the individual plies. This yield to a piecewise grading of the material in the radial direction; that is the physical and mechanical properties of the composite material are allowed to vary radially. The objective function is measured by maximizing the critical buckling pressure while preserving the total structural mass at a constant value equals to that of a baseline reference design. In the selection of the significant optimization variables, the fiber volume fractions adjoin the standard design variables including fiber orientation angles and ply thicknesses. The mathematical formulation employs the classical lamination theory, where an analytical solution that accounts for the effective axial and flexural stiffness separately as well as the inclusion of the coupling stiffness terms is presented. The proposed model deals with dimensionless quantities in order to be valid for thin shells having arbitrary thickness-to-radius ratios. The critical buckling pressure level curves augmented with the mass equality constraint are given for several types of cylinders showing the functional dependence of the constrained objective function on the selected design variables. It was shown that material grading can have significant contribution to the whole optimization process in achieving the required structural designs with enhanced stability limits.

Keywords: Buckling instability, structural optimization, functionally graded material, laminated cylindrical shells, externalhydrostatic pressure.

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Authors: K. K. Kaldybay, T. K. Abdrassilov, G. K. Abdygalieva, P. M. Suleymenov, M. O. Nassimov

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People have always needed to believe in some supernatural power, which could explain nature phenomena. Different kinds of religions like Christianity, Hinduism, Islam, Buddhism have thought believers in all world, how to behave themselves. We think the most important role of religion in modern society most important role of religion in modern society is safety of the People. World and traditional religion played a prominent role in the socio-cultural progress, and in the development of man as a spiritual being. At the heart of religious morals the belief in god and responsibility before it lies and specifies religious and ethical values and categories . The religion is based on ethical standards historically developed by society, requirements and concepts, but it puts all social and moral relations of the person in dependence on religious values. For everything that the believer makes on a debt or a duty, he bears moral responsibility before conscience, people and god. The concept of value of religious morals takes the central place because the religion from all forms of public consciousness most values is painted as it is urged to answer vital questions. Any religion not only considers questions of creation of the world, sense of human existence, relationship of god and the person, but also offers the ethical concept, develops rules of behavior of people. The religion a long time dominated in the history of culture, and during this time created a set of cultural and material values. The identity of Kazakh culture can be defined as a Cultural identity traditional ,national identity and the identity values developed by Kazakh people in process of cultural-historical development, promoting formation of Kazakh culture identity on public consciousness. Identity is the historical process but always the tradition exists in it as a component of stability, as a component of self that what this identity formed .

Keywords: Philosophy, religion, education, culture, human, national value, security, religious value.

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Authors: Justine Jun

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This study aims to reveal migrant women English instructors' workplace learning experiences in Canadian post-secondary institutions in Ontario. Migrant women English instructors in higher education are an understudied group of teachers. This study employs a qualitative research paradigm. Mezirow’s Transformative Learning Theory is an essential lens for the researcher to explain, analyze, and interpret the research data. It is a collaborative research project. The researcher and participants cooperatively create photographic or other artwork data responding to the research questions. Photovoice and arts-informed data collection methodology are the main methods. Research participants engage in the study as co-researchers and inquire about their own workplace learning experiences, actively utilizing their critical self-reflective and dialogic skills. Co-researchers individually select the forms of artwork they prefer to engage with to represent their transformative workplace learning experiences about the Canadian workplace cultures that they underwent while working with colleagues and administrators in the workplace. Once the co-researchers generate their cultural artifacts as research data, they collaboratively interpret their artworks with the researcher and other volunteer co-researchers. Co-researchers jointly investigate the themes emerging from the artworks. They also interpret the meanings of their own and others’ workplace learning experiences embedded in the artworks through interactive one-on-one or group interviews. The following are the research questions that the migrant women English instructor participants examine and answer: (1) What have they learned about their workplace culture and how do they explain their learning experiences? (2) How transformative have their learning experiences been at work? (3) How have their colleagues and administrators influenced their transformative learning? (4) What kind of support have they received? What supports have been valuable to them and what changes would they like to see? (5) What have their learning experiences transformed? (6) What has this arts-informed research process transformed? The study findings implicate English language instructor support currently practiced in post-secondary English language programs in Ontario, Canada, especially for migrant women English instructors. This research is a doctoral empirical study in progress. This study has the urgency to address the research problem that few studies have investigated migrant English instructors’ professional learning and support issues in the workplace, precisely that of English instructors working with adult learners in Canada. While appropriate social and professional support for migrant English instructors is required throughout the country, the present workplace realities in Ontario's English language programs need to be heard soon. For that purpose, the conceptualization of this study is crucial. It makes the investigation of under-represented instructors’ under-researched social phenomena, workplace learning and support, viable and rigorous. This paper demonstrates the robust theorization of English instructors’ workplace experiences using Mezirow’s Transformative Learning Theory in the English language teacher education field. 

Keywords: English teacher education, professional learning, transformative learning theory, workplace learning.

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Authors: Tamer A. Tabet, Fauziah Abdul Aziz, Shahidan Radiman

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The spiral angle of the elementary cellulose fibril in the wood cell wall, often called microfibril angle, (MFA). Microfibril angle in hardwood is one of the key determinants of solid timber performance due to its strong influence on the stiffness, strength, shrinkage, swelling, thermal-dynamics mechanical properties and dimensional stability of wood. Variation of MFA (degree) in the S2 layer of the cell walls among Acacia mangium trees was determined using small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). The length and orientation of the microfibrils of the cell walls in the irradiated volume of the thin samples are measured using SAXS and optical microscope for 3D surface measurement. The undetermined parameters in the analysis are the MFA, (M) and the standard deviation (σФ) of the intensity distribution arising from the wandering of the fibril orientation about the mean value. Nine separate pairs of values are determined for nine different values of the angle of the incidence of the X-ray beam relative to the normal to the radial direction in the sample. The results show good agreement. The curve distribution of scattered intensity for the real cell wall structure is compared with that calculated with that assembly of rectangular cells with the same ratio of transverse to radial cell wall length. It is demonstrated that for β = 45°, the peaks in the curve intensity distribution for the real and the rectangular cells coincide. If this peak position is Ф45, then the MFA can be determined from the relation M = tan-1 (tan Ф45 / cos 45°), which is precise for rectangular cells. It was found that 92.93% of the variation of MFA can be attributed to the distance from pith to bark. Here we shall present our results of the MFA in the cell wall with respect to its shape, structure and the distance from pith to park as an important fast check and yet accurate towards the quality of wood, its uses and application.

Keywords: Small-Angle X-Ray Scattering, Microfibril Angle, MFA, rectangular cell wall and real cell wall, Acacia mangium.

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Authors: M. Naserian, M. Jooshaki, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, M. Hossein Mohammadi Sanjani, A. Oraee

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In recent years, the development of communication infrastructure and smart meters have facilitated the utilization of demand-side resources which can enhance stability and economic efficiency of power systems. Direct load control programs can play an important role in the utilization of demand-side resources in the residential sector. However, investments required for installing control equipment can be a limiting factor in the development of such demand response programs. Thus, selection of consumers with higher potentials is crucial to the success of a direct load control program. Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which due to the heat capacity of buildings feature relatively high flexibility, make up a major part of household consumption. Considering that the consumption of HVAC systems depends highly on the ambient temperature and bearing in mind the high investments required for control systems enabling direct load control demand response programs, in this paper, a solution is presented to uncover consumers with high air conditioner demand among a large number of consumers and to measure the demand response potential of such consumers. This can pave the way for estimating the investments needed for the implementation of direct load control programs for residential HVAC systems and for estimating the demand response potentials in a distribution system. In doing so, we first cluster consumers into several groups based on the correlation coefficients between hourly consumption data and hourly temperature data using K-means algorithm. Then, by applying a recent algorithm to the hourly consumption and temperature data, consumers with high air conditioner consumption are identified. Finally, demand response potential of such consumers is estimated based on the equivalent desired temperature setpoint changes.

Keywords: Data-driven analysis, demand response, direct load control, HVAC system.

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Authors: Zhiguo Yang, Xiangan Yue, Minglu Shao, Yang Yue, Tianqi Yue

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In low permeability reservoirs, the reservoir pore throat is small and the micro heterogeneity is prominent. Conventional microsphere profile control agents generally have good injectability but poor plugging effect; however, profile control agents with good plugging effect generally have poor injectability, which makes it difficult for agent to realize deep profile control of reservoir. To solve this problem, styrene and acrylamide were used as monomers in the laboratory. Emulsion polymerization was used to prepare the Controllable Self-Aggregating Colloidal Particle (CSA), which was rich in amide group. The CSA microsphere dispersion solution with a particle diameter smaller than the pore throat diameter was injected into the reservoir to ensure that the profile control agent had good inject ability. After dispersing the CSA microsphere to the deep part of the reservoir, the CSA microspheres dispersed in static for a certain period of time will self-aggregate into large-sized particle clusters to achieve plugging of hypertonic channels. The CSA microsphere has the characteristics of low expansion and avoids shear fracture in the process of migration. It can be observed by transmission electron microscope that CSA microspheres still maintain regular and uniform spherical and core-shell heterogeneous structure after aging at 100 ºC for 35 days, and CSA microspheres have good thermal stability. The results of bottle test showed that with the increase of cation concentration, the aggregation time of CSA microspheres gradually shortened, and the influence of divalent cations was greater than that of monovalent ions. Physical simulation experiments show that CSA microspheres have good injectability, and the aggregated CSA particle clusters can produce effective plugging and migrate to the deep part of the reservoir for profile control.

Keywords: Heterogeneous reservoir, deep profile control, emulsion polymerization, colloidal particles, plugging characteristic.

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Authors: Wahyu Widowati, Hana Ratnawati, Tjandrawati Mozefis, Dwiyati Pujimulyani, Yelliantty Yelliantty

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Background: Atherosclerosis is the main cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with complex and multifactorial process including atherogenic lipoprotein, oxidized low density lipoprotein (LDL), endothelial dysfunction, plaque stability, vascular inflammation, thrombotic and fibrinolytic disorder, exercises and genetic factor Epidemiological studies have shown tea consumption inversely associated with the development and progression of atherosclerosis. The research objectives: to elucidate hypolipidemic, antioxidant effects, as well as ability to improve coronary artery’s histopathologyof black tea extract (BTE) and quercetin in atherosclerotic rats. Methods: The antioxidant activity was determined by using Superoxide Dismutase activity (SOD) of serum and lipid peroxidation product (Malondialdehyde) of plasma and lipid profile including cholesterol total, LDL, triglyceride (TG), High Density Lipoprotein (HDL) of atherosclerotic rats. Inducing atherosclerotic, rats were given cholesterol and cholic acid in feed during ten weeks until rats indicated atherosclerotic symptom with narrowed artery and foamy cells in the artery’s wall. After rats suffered atherosclerotic, the high cholesterol feed and cholic acid were stopped and rats were given BTE 450; 300; 150 mg/kg body weight (BW) daily, quercetin 15; 10; 5 mg/kg BW daily, compared to rats were given vitamin E 60 mg/kg/BW; simvastatin 2.7 mg/kg BW, probucol 30 mg/kg BW daily for 21 days (first treatment) and 42 days (second treatment), negative control (normal feed), positive control (atherosclerotic rats). Results: BTE and quercetin could lower cholesterol total, triglyceride, LDL MDA and increase HDL, SOD were comparable with simvastatin, probucol both for 21 days and 42 days treatment, as well to improve coronary arteries histopathology. Conclusions: BTE andquercetin have hypolipidemic and antioxidant effects, as well as improve coronary arteries histopathology in atherosclerotic rats.

Keywords: Black tea, quercetin, atherosclerosis, antioxidant, hypolipidemic, cardiovascular disease.

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Authors: Y. C. Mao, G. S. Chen

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Bicycle configuration is not as large as those of motorcycles or automobiles, while it indeed composes a complicated dynamic system. People-s requirements on comfortability, controllability and safety grow higher as the research and development technologies improve. The shock absorber affects the vehicle suspension performances enormously. The absorber takes the vibration energy and releases it at a suitable time, keeping the wheel under a proper contact condition with road surface, maintaining the vehicle chassis stability. Suspension design for mountain bicycles is more difficult than that of city bikes since it encounters dynamic variations on road and loading conditions. Riders need a stiff damper as they exert to tread on the pedals when climbing, while a soft damper when they descend downhill. Various switchable shock absorbers are proposed in markets, however riders have to manually switch them among soft, hard and lock positions. This study proposes a novel design of the bicycle shock absorber, which provides automatic smooth tuning of the damping coefficient, from a predetermined lower bound to theoretically unlimited. An automatic quick releasing valve is involved in this design so that it can release the peak pressure when the suspension fork runs into a square-wave type obstacle and prevent the chassis from damage, avoiding the rider skeleton from injury. This design achieves the automatic tuning process by innovative plunger valve and fluidic passage arrangements without any electronic devices. Theoretical modelling of the damper and spring are established in this study. Design parameters of the valves and fluidic passages are determined. Relations between design parameters and shock absorber performances are discussed in this paper. The analytical results give directions to the shock absorber manufacture.

Keywords: Modelling, Simulation, Bicycle, Shock Absorber, Damping, Releasing Valve

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Authors: Xiangjun Li, Huaiyuan Tian, Wujie Zhang, Dianhua Liu

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Polyoxymethylene dimethyl ethers (PODE_n) as clean diesel additive can improve the combustion efficiency and quality of diesel fuel and alleviate the problem of atmospheric pollution. Considering synthetic routes, PODE production from methanol and formaldehyde is regarded as the most economical and promising synthetic route. However, methanol used for synthesizing PODE can produce water, which causes the loss of active center of catalyst and hydrolysis of PODE_n in the production process. Macroporous strong acidic cation exchange resin catalyst was prepared, which has comparative advantages over other common solid acid catalysts in terms of stability and catalytic efficiency for synthesizing PODE. Catalytic reactions were carried out under 353 K, 1 MPa and 3mL·g_cat^-1·h^-1 in a fixed bed reactor. Methanol conversion and PODE_3-6 selectivity reached 49.91% and 23.43%, respectively. Catalyst lifetime evaluation showed that resin catalyst retained its catalytic activity for 20 days without significant changes and catalytic activity of completely deactivated resin catalyst can basically return to previous level by simple acid regeneration. The acid exchange capacities of original and deactivated catalyst were 2.5191 and 0.0979 mmol·g^-1, respectively, while regenerated catalyst reached 2.0430 mmol·g^-1, indicating that the main reason for resin catalyst deactivation is that Brønsted acid sites of original resin catalyst were temporarily replaced by non-hydrogen ion cations. A separation process consisting of extraction and distillation for PODE_3-6 product was designed for separation of water and unreacted formaldehyde from reactive mixture and purification of PODE_3-6, respectively. The concentration of PODE_3-6 in final product can reach up to 97%. These results indicate that the scale-up production of PODE_3-6 from methanol and formaldehyde solution is feasible.

Keywords: Inactivation, polyoxymethylene dimethyl ethers, separation process, sulfonic cation exchange resin.

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Authors: Heri Hermansyah, Annisa Kurnia, A. Vania Anisya, Adi Surjosatyo, Yopi Sunarya, Rita Arbianti, Tania Surya Utami

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Lipase is one of biocatalyst which is applied commercially for the process in industries, such as bioenergy, food, and pharmaceutical industry. Nowadays, biocatalysts are preferred in industries because they work in mild condition, high specificity, and reduce energy consumption (high pressure and temperature). But, the usage of lipase for industry scale is limited by economic reason due to the high price of lipase and difficulty of the separation system. Immobilization of lipase is one of the solutions to maintain the activity of lipase and reduce separation system in the process. Therefore, we conduct a study about lipase immobilization with the adsorption-cross linking method using glutaraldehyde because this method produces high enzyme loading and stability. Lipase is immobilized on different kind of resin with the various functional group. Highest enzyme loading (76.69%) was achieved by lipase immobilized on anion macroporous which have anion functional group (OH^‑). However, highest activity (24,69 U/g support) through olive oil emulsion method was achieved by lipase immobilized on anion macroporous-chitosan which have amino (NH₂) and anion (OH^-) functional group. In addition, it also success to produce biodiesel until reach yield 50,6% through interesterification reaction and after 4 cycles stable 63.9% relative with initial yield. While for Aspergillus, niger lipase immobilized on anion macroporous-kitosan have unit activity 22,84 U/g resin and yield biodiesel higher than commercial lipase (69,1%) and after 4 cycles stable reach 70.6% relative from initial yield. This shows that optimum functional group on support for immobilization with adsorption-cross linking is the support that contains amino (NH₂) and anion (OH^-) functional group because they can react with glutaraldehyde and binding with enzyme prevent desorption of lipase from support through binding lipase with a functional group on support.

Keywords: Adsorption-Cross linking, lipase, resin, immobilization.

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Authors: Jonathan Sahu, Jill Aylott

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Individuals with Autism, Intellectual and Developmental disabilities (AIDD) are one of the most vulnerable groups in society, hampered not only by their own limitations to understand and interact with the wider society, but also societal limitations in perception and understanding. Communication to express their needs and wishes is fundamental to enable such individuals to live and prosper in society. This research project was designed as an organisational case study, in a large secondary health care hospital within the National Health Service (NHS), to assess the quality of care provided to people with AIDD and to review the role of advocacy to reduce health inequalities in these individuals. Methods: The research methodology adopted was as an “insider researcher”. Data collection included both quantitative and qualitative data i.e. a mixed method approach. A semi-structured interview schedule was designed and used to obtain qualitative and quantitative primary data from a wide range of interdisciplinary frontline health care workers to assess their understanding and awareness of systems, processes and evidence based practice to offer a quality service to people with AIDD. Secondary data were obtained from sources within the organisation, in keeping with “Case Study” as a primary method, and organisational performance data were then compared against national benchmarking standards. Further data sources were accessed to help evaluate the effectiveness of different types of advocacy that were present in the organisation. This was gauged by measures of user and carer experience in the form of retrospective survey analysis, incidents and complaints. Results: Secondary data demonstrate near compliance of the Organisation with the current national benchmarking standard (Monitor Compliance Framework). However, primary data demonstrate poor knowledge of the Mental Capacity Act 2005, poor knowledge of organisational systems, processes and evidence based practice applied for people with AIDD. In addition there was poor knowledge and awareness of frontline health care workers of advocacy and advocacy schemes for this group. Conclusions: A significant amount of work needs to be undertaken to improve the quality of care delivered to individuals with AIDD. An operational strategy promoting the widespread dissemination of information may not be the best approach to deliver quality care and optimal patient experience and patient advocacy. In addition, a more robust set of standards, with appropriate metrics, needs to be developed to assess organisational performance which will stand the test of professional and public scrutiny.

Keywords: Autism, intellectual developmental disabilities, advocacy, health inequalities, quality of care.

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Authors: S. Gokul Prassad, S. Aakash, K. Malar Mohan

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In the process to cope with the challenges faced by the automobile industry in providing ride comfort, the electronics and control systems play a vital role. The control systems in an automobile monitor various parameters, controls the performances of the systems, thereby providing better handling characteristics. The automobile suspension system is one of the main systems that ensure the safety, stability and comfort of the passengers. The system is solely responsible for the isolation of the entire automobile from harmful road vibrations. Thus, integration of the control systems in the automobile suspension system would enhance its performance. The diverse road conditions of India demand the need of an efficient suspension system which can provide optimum ride comfort in all road conditions. For any passenger vehicle, the design of the suspension system plays a very important role in assuring the ride comfort and handling characteristics. In recent years, the air suspension system is preferred over the conventional suspension systems to ensure ride comfort. In this article, the ride comfort of the adaptive suspension system is compared with that of the passive suspension system. The schema is created in MATLAB/Simulink environment. The system is controlled by a proportional integral differential controller. Tuning of the controller was done with the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, since it suited the problem best. Ziegler-Nichols and Modified Ziegler-Nichols tuning methods were also tried and compared. Both the static responses and dynamic responses of the systems were calculated. Various random road profiles as per ISO 8608 standard are modelled in the MATLAB environment and their responses plotted. Open-loop and closed loop responses of the random roads, various bumps and pot holes are also plotted. The simulation results of the proposed design are compared with the available passive suspension system. The obtained results show that the proposed adaptive suspension system is efficient in controlling the maximum over shoot and the settling time of the system is reduced enormously.

Keywords: Automobile suspension, MATLAB, control system, PID, PSO.

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Authors: Denise Levy, Gian M. A. A. Sordi

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This web based project focuses on continuing corporate education and improving workers' skills in Brazilian radioactive facilities throughout the country. The potential of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) shall contribute to improve the global communication in this very large country, where it is a strong challenge to ensure high quality professional information to as many people as possible. The main objective of this system is to provide Brazilian radioactive facilities a complete web-based repository - in Portuguese - for research, consultation and information, offering conditions for learning and improving professional and personal skills. UNIPRORAD is a web based system to offer unified programs and inter-related information about radiological protection programs. The content includes the best practices for radioactive facilities in order to meet both national standards and international recommendations published by different organizations over the past decades: International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and National Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN). The website counts on concepts, definitions and theory about optimization and ionizing radiation monitoring procedures. Moreover, the content presents further discussions related to some national and international recommendations, such as potential exposure, which is currently one of the most important research fields in radiological protection. Only two publications of ICRP develop expressively the issue and there is still a lack of knowledge of fail probabilities, for there are still uncertainties to find effective paths to quantify probabilistically the occurrence of potential exposures and the probabilities to reach a certain level of dose. To respond to this challenge, this project discusses and introduces potential exposures in a more quantitative way than national and international recommendations. Articulating ICRP and AIEA valid recommendations and official reports, in addition to scientific papers published in major international congresses, the website discusses and suggests a number of effective actions towards safety which can be incorporated into labor practice. The WEB platform was created according to corporate public needs, taking into account the development of a robust but flexible system, which can be easily adapted to future demands. ICTs provide a vast array of new communication capabilities and allow to spread information to as many people as possible at low costs and high quality communication. This initiative shall provide opportunities for employees to increase professional skills, stimulating development in this large country where it is an enormous challenge to ensure effective and updated information to geographically distant facilities, minimizing costs and optimizing results.

Keywords: Distance learning, information and communication technology, nuclear science, radioactive facilities.

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Authors: Maryam Memarian, Mahmood Naghizadeh

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Deconstruction is an approach that is entirely incompatible with the traditional prevalent architecture. Considering the fact that this approach attempts to put architecture in sharp contrast with its opposite events and transpires with attending to the neglected and missing aspects of architecture and deconstructing its stable structures. It also recklessly proceeds beyond the existing frameworks and intends to create a different and more efficient prospect for space. The aim of deconstruction architecture is to satisfy both the prospective and retrospective visions as well as takes into account all tastes of the present in order to transcend time. Likewise, it ventures to fragment the facts and symbols of the past and extract new concepts from within their heart, which coincide with today’s circumstances. Since this approach is an attempt to surpass the limits of the prevalent architecture, it can be employed to design places in which creative events occur and imagination and ambition flourish. Thought-provoking artistic events can grow and mature in such places and be represented in the best way possible to all people. The concept of event proposed in the plan grows out of the interaction between space and creation. In addition to triggering surprise and high impressions, it is also considered as a bold journey into the suspended realms of the traditional conflicts in architecture such as architecture-landscape, interior-exterior, center-margin, product-process, and stability-instability. In this project, at first, through interpretive-historical research method and examining the inputs and data collection, recognition and organizing takes place. After evaluating the obtained data using deductive reasoning, the data is eventually interpreted. Given the fact that the research topic is in its infancy and there is not a similar case in Iran with limited number of corresponding instances across the world, the selected topic helps to shed lights on the unrevealed and neglected parts in architecture. Similarly, criticizing, investigating and comparing specific and highly prized cases in other countries with the project under study can serve as an introduction into this architecture style.

Keywords: Creativity, deconstruction, event.

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Authors: Anne-Margré C. Vink

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Background. Food-related allergies and intolerances are frequently occurring in dogs. Diagnosis and monitoring according ‘Golden Standard’ of elimination efficiency is, however, time consuming, expensive, and requires expert clinical setting. In order to facilitate rapid and robust, quantitative testing of intolerance, and determining the individual offending foods, a serological test is implicated for Alimentary Induced Diseases and manifestations. Method. As we developed Medisynx IgG Human Screening Test ELISA before and the dog’ immune system is most similar to humans, we were able to develop Medisynx IgG Dog Screening Test ELISA as well. In this randomized, double-blind, split-sample, retro perspective study 47 dogs suffering from Canine Atopic Dermatitis (CAD) and several secondary induced reactions were included to participate in serological Medisynx IgG Dog Screening Test ELISA (within < 0,02 % SD). Results were expressed as titers relative to the standard OD readings to diagnose alimentary induced diseases and monitoring efficacy of an individual eliminating diet in dogs. Split sample analysis was performed by independently sending 2 times 3 ml serum under two unique codes. Results. The veterinarian monitored these dogs to check dog’ results at least at 3, 7, 21, 49, 70 days and after period of 6 and 12 months on an individual negative diet and a positive challenge (retrospectively) at 6 months. Data of each dog were recorded in a screening form and reported that a complete recovery of all clinical manifestations was observed at or less than 70 days (between 50 and 70 days) in the majority of dogs (44 out of 47 dogs =93.6%). Conclusion. Challenge results showed a significant result of 100% in specificity as well as 100% positive predicted value. On the other hand, sensitivity was 95,7% and negative predictive value was 95,7%. In conclusion, an individual diet based on IgG ELISA in dogs provides a significant improvement of atopic dermatitis and pruritus including all other non-specific defined allergic skin reactions as erythema, itching, biting and gnawing at toes, as well as to several secondary manifestations like chronic diarrhoea, chronic constipation, otitis media, obesity, laziness or inactive behaviour, pain and muscular stiffness causing a movement disorders, excessive lacrimation, hyper behaviour, nervous behaviour and not possible to stay alone at home, anxiety, biting and aggressive behaviour and disobedience behaviour. Furthermore, we conclude that a relatively more severe systemic candidiasis, as shown by relatively higher titer (class 3 and 4 IgG reactions to Candida albicans), influence the duration of recovery from clinical manifestations in affected dogs. These findings are consistent with our preliminary human clinical studies.

Keywords: Allergy, canine atopic dermatitis (CAD), food allergens, IgG-ELISA, food-incompatibility.

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Authors: Elza Jurun, Damir Piplica, Tea Poklepović

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Numerous studies carried out in the developed  western democratic countries have shown that the ideological  framework of the governing party has a significant influence on the  monetary policy. The executive authority consisting of a left-wing  party gives a higher weight to unemployment suppression and central  bank implements a more expansionary monetary policy. On the other  hand, right-wing governing party considers the monetary stability to  be more important than unemployment suppression and in such a  political framework the main macroeconomic objective becomes the  inflation rate reduction. The political framework conditions in the  transition countries which are new European Union (EU) members  are still highly specific in relation to the other EU member countries.  In the focus of this paper is the question whether the same  monetary policy principles are valid in these transitional countries as  well as they apply in developed western democratic EU member  countries. The data base consists of inflation rate and unemployment  rate for 11 transitional EU member countries covering the period  from 2001 to 2012. The essential information for each of these 11  countries and for each year of the observed period is right or left  political orientation of the ruling party.  In this paper we use t-statistics to test our hypothesis that there are  differences in inflation and unemployment between right and left  political orientation of the governing party. To explore the influence  of different countries, through years and different political  orientations descriptive statistics is used. Inflation and unemployment  should be strongly negatively correlated through time, which is tested  using Pearson correlation coefficient.  Regarding the fact whether the governing authority is consisted  from left or right politically oriented parties, monetary authorities  will adjust its policy setting the higher priority on lower inflation or  unemployment reduction. 

Keywords: Inflation rate, monetary policy orientation, transition EU countries, unemployment rate.

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Authors: Marinelle El-Khoury, Lina Bouhaya, Nivine Abbas, Hassan Sleiman

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The road network in the north of Lebanon is a prime example of the lack of pavement design and execution in Lebanon.  These roads show major distresses and hence, should be tested and evaluated. The aim of this research is to investigate and determine the deficiencies in road surface design in Lebanon, and to propose an environmentally friendly asphalt mix design. This paper consists of several parts: (i) evaluating pavement performance and structural behavior, (ii) identifying the distresses using visual examination followed by laboratory tests, (iii) deciding the optimal solution where rehabilitation or reconstruction is required and finally, (iv) identifying a sustainable method, which uses recycled material in the proposed mix. The asphalt formula contains Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP) in the base course layer and in the asphalt layer. Visual inspection of the roads in Tripoli shows that these roads face a high level of distress severity. Consequently, the pavement should be reconstructed rather than simply rehabilitated. Coring was done to determine the pavement layer thickness. The results were compared to the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) design methodology and showed that the existing asphalt thickness is lower than the required asphalt thickness. Prior to the pavement reconstruction, the road materials were tested according to the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) specification to identify whether the materials are suitable. Accordingly, the ASTM tests that were performed on the base course are Sieve analysis, Atterberg limits, modified proctor, Los Angeles, and California Bearing Ratio (CBR) tests. Results show a CBR value higher than 70%. Hence, these aggregates could be used as a base course layer. The asphalt layer was also tested and the results of the Marshall flow and stability tests meet the ASTM specifications. In the last section, an environmentally friendly mix was proposed. An optimal RAP percentage of 30%, which produced a well graded base course and asphalt mix, was determined through a series of trials.

Keywords: Asphalt mix, reclaimed asphalt pavement, California bearing ratio, sustainability.

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Authors: Sadaf Moeez, Madiha Khalid, Zoya Khalid, Sania Shaheen, Sumbul Khalid

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Background: Inter-individual variation in response to metformin, which has been considered as a first line therapy for T2DM treatment is considerable. In the current study, it was aimed to investigate the impact of two genetic variants Leu125Phe (rs77474263) and Gly64Asp (rs77630697) in gene SLC47A1 on the clinical efficacy of metformin in T2DM Pakistani patients. Methods: The study included 800 T2DM patients (400 metformin responders and 400 metformin non-responders) along with 400 ethnically matched healthy individuals. The genotypes were determined by allele-specific polymerase chain reaction. In-silico analysis was done to confirm the effect of the two SNPs on the structure of genes. Association was statistically determined using SPSS software. Results: Minor allele frequency for rs77474263 and rs77630697 was 0.13 and 0.12. For SLC47A1 rs77474263 the homozygotes of one mutant allele ‘T’ (CT) of rs77474263 variant were fewer in metformin responders than metformin non-responders (29.2% vs. 35.5 %). Likewise, the efficacy was further reduced (7.2% vs. 4.0 %) in homozygotes of two copies of ‘T’ allele (TT). Remarkably, T2DM cases with two copies of allele ‘C’ (CC) had 2.11 times more probability to respond towards metformin monotherapy. For SLC47A1 rs77630697 the homozygotes of one mutant allele ‘A’ (GA) of rs77630697 variant were fewer in metformin responders than metformin non-responders (33.5% vs. 43.0 %). Likewise, the efficacy was further reduced (8.5% vs. 4.5%) in homozygotes of two copies of ‘A’ allele (AA). Remarkably, T2DM cases with two copies of allele ‘G’ (GG) had 2.41 times more probability to respond towards metformin monotherapy. In-silico analysis revealed that these two variants affect the structure and stability of their corresponding proteins. Conclusion: The present data suggest that SLC47A1 Leu125Phe (rs77474263) and Gly64Asp (rs77630697) polymorphisms were associated with the therapeutic response of metformin in T2DM patients of Pakistan.

Keywords: Diabetes, T2DM, SLC47A1, Pakistan, polymorphism.

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Authors: N. Šarlija, S. Pfeifer, M. Jeger, A. Bilandžić

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Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.

Keywords: Growth measurement constructs, logistic regression, prediction of growth potential, small and medium-sized enterprises.

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Authors: A. Appe, B. Poluparthi, L. Kasivajjula, U. Mv, S. Bagadi, P. Modi, A. Singh, H. Gunupudi, S. Troiano, J. Paul, J. Stovall, J. Yamamoto

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The necessity of data-driven decisions in healthcare strategy formulation is rapidly increasing. A reliable framework which helps identify factors impacting a healthcare provider facility or a hospital (from here on termed as facility) market share is of key importance. This pilot study aims at developing a data-driven machine learning-regression framework which aids strategists in formulating key decisions to improve the facility’s market share which in turn impacts in improving the quality of healthcare services. The US (United States) healthcare business is chosen for the study, and the data spanning 60 key facilities in Washington State and about 3 years of historical data are considered. In the current analysis, market share is termed as the ratio of the facility’s encounters to the total encounters among the group of potential competitor facilities. The current study proposes a two-pronged approach of competitor identification and regression approach to evaluate and predict market share, respectively. Leveraged model agnostic technique, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), to quantify the relative importance of features impacting the market share. Typical techniques in literature to quantify the degree of competitiveness among facilities use an empirical method to calculate a competitive factor to interpret the severity of competition. The proposed method identifies a pool of competitors, develops Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and feature level word vectors, and evaluates the key connected components at the facility level. This technique is robust since it is data-driven, which minimizes the bias from empirical techniques. The DAGs factor in partial correlations at various segregations and key demographics of facilities along with a placeholder to factor in various business rules (for e.g., quantifying the patient exchanges, provider references, and sister facilities). Identified are the multiple groups of competitors among facilities. Leveraging the competitors' identified developed and fine-tuned Random Forest Regression model to predict the market share. To identify key drivers of market share at an overall level, permutation feature importance of the attributes was calculated. For relative quantification of features at a facility level, incorporated SHAP, a model agnostic explainer. This helped to identify and rank the attributes at each facility which impacts the market share. This approach proposes an amalgamation of the two popular and efficient modeling practices, viz., machine learning with graphs and tree-based regression techniques to reduce the bias. With these, we helped to drive strategic business decisions.

Keywords: Competition, DAGs, hospital, healthcare, machine learning, market share, random forest, SHAP.

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Authors: S. Behnam Malekzadeh, I. Kerr, T. Kaempffer, T. Harper, A Watson

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The Site C Hydroelectric dam is currently being constructed in north-eastern British Columbia on sub-horizontal sedimentary strata that dip approximately 15 meters from one bank of the Peace River to the other. More than 615 pressure sensors (Vibrating Wire Piezometers) have been installed on bedding planes (BPs) since construction began, with over 80 more planned before project completion. These pressure measurements are essential to monitor the stability of the rock foundation during and after construction and for dam safety purposes. BPs are identified by their clay gouge infilling, which varies in thickness from less than 1 to 20 mm and can be challenging to identify as the core drilling process often disturbs or washes away the gouge material. Without the use of depth predictions from nearby boreholes, stratigraphic markers, and downhole geophysical data, it is difficult to confidently identify BP targets for the sensors. In this paper, a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) method was used to develop an empirical model called the Bedding Plane Elevation Prediction (BPEP) to help geologists and geotechnical engineers to predict geological features and BPs at new locations in a fast and accurate manner. To develop CBR, a database was developed based on 64 pressure sensors already installed on key bedding planes BP25, BP28, and BP31 on the Right Bank, including BP elevations and coordinates. 13 (20%) of the most recent cases were selected to validate and evaluate the accuracy of the developed model, while the similarity was defined as the distance between previous cases and recent cases to predict the depth of significant BPs. The average difference between actual BP elevations and predicted elevations for above BPs was ± 55 cm, while the actual results showed that 69% of predicted elevations were within ± 79 cm of actual BP elevations while 100% of predicted elevations for new cases were within ± 99 cm range. Eventually, the actual results will be used to develop the database and improve BPEP to perform as a learning machine to predict more accurate BP elevations for future sensor installations.

Keywords: Case-Based Reasoning, CBR, geological feature, geology, piezometer, pressure sensor, core logging, dam construction.

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Authors: Abdullah Faqihi, John Hedley

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Biosensors play a significant role in the healthcare sectors, scientific and technological progress. Developing electrodes that are easy to manufacture and deliver better electrochemical performance is advantageous for diagnostics and biosensing. They can be implemented extensively in various analytical tasks such as drug discovery, food safety, medical diagnostics, process controls, security and defence, in addition to environmental monitoring. Development of biosensors aims to create high-performance electrochemical electrodes for diagnostics and biosensing. A biosensor is a device that inspects the biological and chemical reactions generated by the biological sample. A biosensor carries out biological detection via a linked transducer and transmits the biological response into an electrical signal; stability, selectivity, and sensitivity are the dynamic and static characteristics that affect and dictate the quality and performance of biosensors. In this research, a developed experimental study for laser scribing technique for graphene oxide inside a vacuum chamber for processing of graphene oxide is presented. The processing of graphene oxide (GO) was achieved using the laser scribing technique. The effect of the laser scribing on the reduction of GO was investigated under two conditions: atmosphere and vacuum. GO solvent was coated onto a LightScribe DVD. The laser scribing technique was applied to reduce GO layers to generate rGO. The micro-details for the morphological structures of rGO and GO were visualised using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Raman spectroscopy so that they could be examined. The first electrode was a traditional graphene-based electrode model, made under normal atmospheric conditions, whereas the second model was a developed graphene electrode fabricated under a vacuum state using a vacuum chamber. The purpose was to control the vacuum conditions, such as the air pressure and the temperature during the fabrication process. The parameters to be assessed include the layer thickness and the continuous environment. Results presented show high accuracy and repeatability achieving low cost productivity.

Keywords: Laser scribing, LightScribe DVD, graphene oxide, scanning electron microscopy.

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Authors: Shang-Hsin Ou, Yang-Chun Lin, Ke-Hao Cheng

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The year 2021 marked a historic drought in Taiwan, posing unprecedented challenges due to record-low rainfall and inadequate reservoir storage. The central region experienced water scarcity, leading to the implementation of "Groundwater Utilization at Construction Sites" for drought-resilient livelihood water supply. This study focuses on the establishment process of temporary groundwater treatment plants at construction sites in Taichung City, serving as a reference for future emergency response and the utilization of construction site groundwater. To identify suitable sites for groundwater reuse projects, site selection operations were carried out based on relevant water quality regulations and assessment principles. Subsequently, the planning and design of temporary water treatment plants were conducted, considering the water quality, quantity, and on-site conditions of groundwater wells associated with construction projects. The study consolidates the major water treatment facilities at each site and addresses encountered challenges during the establishment process. Practical insights gained from operating temporary groundwater treatment plants are presented, including improvements related to stable water quality, water quantity, equipment operation, and hydraulic control. In light of possible future droughts, this study provides an outlook and recommendations to expedite and improve the setup of groundwater treatment plants at construction sites. This includes considering on-site water abstraction, treatment, and distribution conditions. The study aims to provide concise guidelines for setting up and managing temporary groundwater treatment plants at construction sites, drawing insights from Taichung City's establishment process. It offers recommendations for addressing challenges like water quality, quantity, equipment operation, and regulation compliance. By sharing these insights, it aims to aid regions facing similar emergencies, ensuring sustainable water supply and societal stability amidst water shortages and droughts.

Keywords: Drought resilience, groundwater treatment, construction site, water supply.

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Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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This paper introduces topological order in descried social systems starting with the original concept of autopoiesis by biologists and scientists, including the modification of general systems based on socialized medicine. Topological order is important in describing the physical systems for exploiting optical systems and improving photonic devices. The stats of topologically order have some interesting properties of topological degeneracy and fractional statistics that reveal the entanglement origin of topological order, etc. Topological ideas in photonics form exciting developments in solid-state materials, that being; insulating in the bulk, conducting electricity on their surface without dissipation or back-scattering, even in the presence of large impurities. A specific type of autopoiesis system is interrelated to the main categories amongst existing groups of the ecological phenomena interaction social and medical sciences. The hypothesis, nevertheless, has a nonlinear interaction with its natural environment ‘interactional cycle’ for exchange photon energy with molecules without changes in topology (i.e., chemical transformation into products do not propagate any changes or variation in the network topology of physical configuration). The engineering topology of a biosensor is based on the excitation boundary of surface electromagnetic waves in photonic band gap multilayer films. The device operation is similar to surface Plasmonic biosensors in which a photonic band gap film replaces metal film as the medium when surface electromagnetic waves are excited. The use of photonic band gap film offers sharper surface wave resonance leading to the potential of greatly enhanced sensitivity. So, the properties of the photonic band gap material are engineered to operate a sensor at any wavelength and conduct a surface wave resonance that ranges up to 470 nm. The wavelength is not generally accessible with surface Plasmon sensing. Lastly, the photonic band gap films have robust mechanical functions that offer new substrates for surface chemistry to understand the molecular design structure, and create sensing chips surface with different concentrations of DNA sequences in the solution to observe and track the surface mode resonance under the influences of processes that take place in the spectroscopic environment. These processes led to the development of several advanced analytical technologies, which are automated, real-time, reliable, reproducible and cost-effective. This results in faster and more accurate monitoring and detection of biomolecules on refractive index sensing, antibody–antigen reactions with a DNA or protein binding. Ultimately, the controversial aspect of molecular frictional properties is adjusted to each other in order to form unique spatial structure and dynamics of biological molecules for providing the environment mutual contribution in investigation of changes due the pathogenic archival architecture of cell clusters.

Keywords: autopoiesis, engineering topology, photonic system molecular structure, biosensor

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Authors: Aynaz Lotfata

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Planning community has been long discussing emerging paradigms within the planning theory in the face of the changing conditions of the world order. The paradigm shift concept was introduced by Thomas Kuhn, in 1960, who claimed the necessity of shifting within scientific knowledge boundaries; and following him in 1970 Imre Loktas also gave priority to the emergence of multi-paradigm societies [24]. Multi-paradigm is changing our predetermined lifeworld through uncertainties. Those uncertainties are reflected in two sides, the first one is uncertainty as a concept of possibility and creativity in public sphere and the second one is uncertainty as a risk. Therefore, it is necessary to apply a resilience planning approach to be more dynamic in controlling uncertainties which have the potential to transfigure present time and space definitions. In this way, stability of system can be achieved. Uncertainty is not only an outcome of worldwide changes but also a place-specific issue, i.e. it changes from continent to continent, a country to country; a region to region. Therefore, applying strategic spatial planning with respect to resilience principle contributes to: control, grasp and internalize uncertainties through place-specific strategies. In today-s fast changing world, planning system should follow strategic spatial projects to control multi-paradigm societies with adaptability capacities. Here, we have selected two alternatives to demonstrate; these are; 1.Tehran (Iran) from the Middle East 2.Bath (United Kingdom) from Europe. The study elaborates uncertainties and particularities in their strategic spatial planning processes in a comparative manner. Through the comparison, the study aims at assessing place-specific priorities in strategic planning. The approach is to a two-way stream, where the case cities from the extreme end of the spectrum can learn from each other. The structure of this paper is to firstly compare semi-periphery (Tehran) and coreperiphery (Bath) cities, with the focus to reveal how they equip to face with uncertainties according to their geographical locations and local particularities. Secondly, the key message to address is “Each locality requires its own strategic planning approach to be resilient.--

Keywords: Adaptation, Relational Network, Socio-Spatial Strategic Resiliency, Uncertainty.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: Samart Homthong, Wutthipong Moungnoi

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Critical success factors (CSFs) and the criteria to measure project success have received much attention over the decades and are among the most widely researched topics in the context of project management. However, although there have been extensive studies on the subject by different researchers, to date, there has been little agreement on the CSFs. The aim of this study is to identify the CSFs that influence the performance of construction projects, and determine their relative importance for different objectives across five stages in the project life cycle. A considerable literature review was conducted that resulted in the identification of 179 individual factors. These factors were then grouped into nine major categories. A questionnaire survey was used to collect data from three groups of respondents: client representatives, consultants, and contractors. Out of 164 questionnaires distributed, 93 were returned, yielding a response rate of 56.7%. Using the mean score, relative importance index, and weighted average method, the top 10 critical factors for each category were identified. The agreement of survey respondents on those categorised factors were analysed using Spearman’s rank correlation. A one-way analysis of variance was then performed to determine whether the mean scores among the various groups of respondents were statistically significant. The findings indicate the most CSFs in each category in procurement phase are: proper procurement programming of materials (time), stability in the price of materials (cost), and determining quality in the construction (quality). They are then followed by safety equipment acquisition and maintenance (health and safety), budgeting allowed in a contractual arrangement for implementing environmental management activities (environment), completeness of drawing documents (productivity), accurate measurement and pricing of bill of quantities (risk management), adequate communication among the project team (human resource), and adequate cost control measures (client satisfaction). An understanding of CSFs would help all interested parties in the construction industry to improve project performance. Furthermore, the results of this study would help construction professionals and practitioners take proactive measures for effective project management.

Keywords: Critical success factors, procurement phase, project life cycle, project performance.

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