Search results for: fire behavior model

Authors: Hao-Hsiang Ku, Ching-Ho Chi

Abstract:

Big data applications have become an imperative for many fields. Many researchers have been devoted into increasing correct rates and reducing time complexities. Hence, the study designs and proposes an Ontology-based backpropagation neural network classification and reasoning strategy for NoSQL big data applications, which is called ON4NoSQL. ON4NoSQL is responsible for enhancing the performances of classifications in NoSQL and SQL databases to build up mass behavior models. Mass behavior models are made by MapReduce techniques and Hadoop distributed file system based on Hadoop service platform. The reference engine of ON4NoSQL is the ontology-based backpropagation neural network classification and reasoning strategy. Simulation results indicate that ON4NoSQL can efficiently achieve to construct a high performance environment for data storing, searching, and retrieving.

Keywords: Hadoop, NoSQL, ontology, backpropagation neural network, and high distributed file system.

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Authors: Julio Manuel de Luis Ruiz, Javier Sedano Cibrián, Rubén Pérez Álvarez, Raúl Pereda García, Cristina Diego Soroa

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Nowadays, the use of drones has been extended to practically any human activity. One of the main applications is focused on the surveying field. In this regard, software programs that process the images captured by the sensor from the drone in an almost automatic way have been developed and commercialized, but they only allow contrasting the results through control points. This work proposes the contrast of a 3D model obtained from a flight developed by a drone and a non-metric camera (due to its low cost), with a second model that is obtained by means of the historically-endorsed classical methods. In addition to this, the contrast is developed over a certain territory with a significant unevenness, so as to test the model generated with photogrammetry, and considering that photogrammetry with drones finds more difficulties in terms of accuracy in this kind of situations. Distances, heights, surfaces and volumes are measured on the basis of the 3D models generated, and the results are contrasted. The differences are about 0.2% for the measurement of distances and heights, 0.3% for surfaces and 0.6% when measuring volumes. Although they are not important, they do not meet the order of magnitude that is presented by salespeople.

Keywords: Accuracy, classical topographic, 3D model, photogrammetry, UAV.

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Authors: Changjin Xu, Yusen Wu

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In this paper, a asymptotically periodic predator-prey model with Modified Leslie-Gower and Holling-Type II schemes is investigated. Some sufficient conditions for the uniformly strong persistence of the system are established. Our result is an important complementarity to the earlier results.

Keywords: Predator-prey model, uniformly strong persistence, asymptotically periodic, Holling-type II.

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Authors: A. Khafaji, R. Saadane, J. El Abbadi, M. Belkasmi

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The main objectif of this paper is to present a tool that we have developed subject to characterize and modelling indoor radio channel propagation at millimetric wave. The tool is based on the ray tracing technique (RTT). As, in realistic environment we cannot neglect the significant impact of Human Body Shadowing and other objects in motion on indoor 60 GHz propagation channel. Hence, our proposed model allows a simulation of propagation in a dynamic indoor environment. First, we describe a model of human body. Second, RTT with this model is used to simulate the propagation of millimeter waves in the presence of persons in motion. Results of the simulation show that this tool gives results in agreement with those reported in the literature. Specially, the effects of people motion on temporal channel properties.

Keywords: Simulation. 60 GHz band, Ray Tracing Technique, Indoor channel, Propagation, Human Body Model, Level crossing rate,

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Authors: James D. Gadze, Niki Pissinou, Kia Makki

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In this paper we propose an intelligent agent approach to control the electric power grid at a smaller granularity in order to give it self-healing capabilities. We develop a method using the influence model to transform transmission substations into information processing, analyzing and decision making (intelligent behavior) units. We also develop a wireless communication method to deliver real-time uncorrupted information to an intelligent controller in a power system environment. A combined networking and information theoretic approach is adopted in meeting both the delay and error probability requirements. We use a mobile agent approach in optimizing the achievable information rate vector and in the distribution of rates to users (sensors). We developed the concept and the quantitative tools require in the creation of cooperating semiautonomous subsystems which puts the electric grid on the path towards intelligent and self-healing system.

Keywords: Mobile agent, power system operation and control, real time, wireless communication.

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Authors: Prashanth C.M., K. Chandrashekar Shet

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In recent past, the Unified Modeling Language (UML) has become the de facto industry standard for object-oriented modeling of the software systems. The syntax and semantics rich UML has encouraged industry to develop several supporting tools including those capable of generating deployable product (code) from the UML models. As a consequence, ensuring the correctness of the model/design has become challenging and extremely important task. In this paper, we present an approach for automatic verification of protocol model/design. As a case study, Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) design is verified for the property, “the CALLER will not converse with the CALLEE before the connection is established between them ". The SIP is modeled using UML statechart diagrams and the desired properties are expressed in temporal logic. Our prototype verifier “UML-SMV" is used to carry out the verification. We subjected an erroneous SIP model to the UML-SMV, the verifier could successfully detect the error (in 76.26ms) and generate the error trace.

Keywords: Unified Modeling Language, Statechart, Verification, Protocol Design, Model Checking.

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Authors: Tohru Kawabe

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In this paper, a 2DOF (two degrees of freedom) PID (Proportional-Integral-Derivative) controller based on MPC (Model predictive control) algorithm fo slip suppression of EV (Electric Vehicle) under braking is proposed. The proposed method aims to improve the safety and the stability of EVs under braking by controlling the wheel slip ration. There also include numerical simulation results to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: Model predictive control, PID controller, Two degrees of freedom, Electric Vehicle, Slip suppression.

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Authors: André M. Senna, Mary L. G. S. Senna, Rosa M. Machado-de-Sena

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One of the great challenges presented in educational practice is how to ensure the students not only acquire knowledge of training courses throughout their academic life, but also how to apply it in their current professional activities. Consequently, aiming to incite changes in the education system of healthcare professionals noticed the inadequacy of the training providers to solve the social problems related to health, the education related to these procedures should initiate in the earliest years of process. Following that idea, there is another question that needs an answer: If the change in the education should start sooner, in the period of basic training of healthcare professionals, what guidelines should a permanent education program incorporate to promote changes in an already established system? For this reason, the objective of this paper is to present different views of the teaching-learning process, with the purpose of better understanding the behavior adopted by healthcare professionals, through bibliographic study. The conclusion was that more than imparting knowledge to the individual, a larger approach is necessary on permanent education programs concerning the performance of professional health services in order to foment significant changes in education.

Keywords: Health education, continuing education, training, behavior.

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Authors: Vahhab Attar Olyaee, Fouad Attar Olyaee

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Many IT projects come to failure because of having technical approach, focusing on the final product and lack of proper attention to strategic alignment. Project management models quite often have technical management view [4], [8], [13], [14]. These models focus greatly on the finalization of the project product and the delivery of the product to the customer. However, many project problems are due to lack of attention to the needs and capabilities of the organizations or disregarding how to deploy and use the product in the organization. In this regard, in the current research we are trying to present a solution with the purpose of raising the value of the project in an organization. This way, the project outputs will be properly deployed in the organization. Therefore, a comprehensive model is presented which takes into account the whole processes from initial step of project definition to the deployment of the final outputs in the organization and then the definition of all roles and responsibilities to put the model into practice. Taking into account the opinions of experts and project managers, to prove the performance of the model, the project problems were recognized and based on the model, categorized and analyzed. And at the end it is made clear that ignoring the proper definition of the project and not having a proper understanding of the expected value on the one hand and not supervising the emerged value in the process of production and installment are among the most important factors that bring a project to failure.

Keywords: IT Governance, Project Model, Roles and Responsibilities of Project

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Authors: Mingyu Xie, Mietek Brdys

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The paper develops a Non-Linear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) of water quality in Drinking Water Distribution Systems (DWDS) based on the advanced non-linear quality dynamics model including disinfections by-products (DBPs). A special attention is paid to the analysis of an impact of the flow trajectories prescribed by an upper control level of the recently developed two-time scale architecture of an integrated quality and quantity control in DWDS. The new quality controller is to operate within this architecture in the fast time scale as the lower level quality controller. The controller performance is validated by a comprehensive simulation study based on an example case study DWDS.

Keywords: Model predictive control, hierarchical control structure, genetic algorithm, water quality with DBPs objectives.

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Authors: B. Marasović, S. Pivac, S. V. Vukasović

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Constructing a portfolio of investments is one of the most significant financial decisions facing individuals and institutions. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximization of return at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. In addition, the costs incurred when setting up a new portfolio or rebalancing an existing portfolio must be included in any realistic analysis. In this paper rebalancing an investment portfolio in the presence of transaction costs on the Croatian capital market is analyzed. The model applied in the paper is an extension of the standard portfolio mean-variance optimization model in which transaction costs are incurred to rebalance an investment portfolio. This model allows different costs for different securities, and different costs for buying and selling. In order to find efficient portfolio, using this model, first, the solution of quadratic programming problem of similar size to the Markowitz model, and then the solution of a linear programming problem have to be found. Furthermore, in the paper the impact of transaction costs on the efficient frontier is investigated. Moreover, it is shown that global minimum variance portfolio on the efficient frontier always has the same level of the risk regardless of the amount of transaction costs. Although efficient frontier position depends of both transaction costs amount and initial portfolio it can be concluded that extreme right portfolio on the efficient frontier always contains only one stock with the highest expected return and the highest risk.

Keywords: Croatian capital market, Fractional quadratic programming, Markowitz model, Portfolio optimization, Transaction costs.

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Authors: R. AliMohammadzadeh, M. Rahgozar, A. Zarnani

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The inherent flexibilities of XML in both structure and semantics makes mining from XML data a complex task with more challenges compared to traditional association rule mining in relational databases. In this paper, we propose a new model for the effective extraction of generalized association rules form a XML document collection. We directly use frequent subtree mining techniques in the discovery process and do not ignore the tree structure of data in the final rules. The frequent subtrees based on the user provided support are split to complement subtrees to form the rules. We explain our model within multi-steps from data preparation to rule generation.

Keywords: XML, Data Mining, Association Rule Mining.

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Authors: D. Benasciutti, M. Gallina, M. Gh. Munteanu, F. Flumian

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This paper presents a numerical approach for the static and dynamic analysis of hydrodynamic radial journal bearings. In the first part, the effect of shaft and housing deformability on pressure distribution within oil film is investigated. An iterative algorithm that couples Reynolds equation with a plane finite elements (FE) structural model is solved. Viscosity-to-pressure dependency (Vogel- Barus equation) is also included. The deformed lubrication gap and the overall stress state are obtained. Numerical results are presented with reference to a typical journal bearing configuration at two different inlet oil temperatures. Obtained results show the great influence of bearing components structural deformation on oil pressure distribution, compared with results for ideally rigid components. In the second part, a numerical approach based on perturbation method is used to compute stiffness and damping matrices, which characterize the journal bearing dynamic behavior.

Keywords: Journal bearing, finite elements, deformation, dynamic analysis

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Authors: T. Sakamoto, N. Hori

Abstract:

A multi-rate discrete-time model, whose response agrees exactly with that of a continuous-time original at all sampling instants for any sampling periods, is developed for a linear system, which is assumed to have multiple real eigenvalues. The sampling rates can be chosen arbitrarily and individually, so that their ratios can even be irrational. The state space model is obtained as a combination of a linear diagonal state equation and a nonlinear output equation. Unlike the usual lifted model, the order of the proposed model is the same as the number of sampling rates, which is less than or equal to the order of the original continuous-time system. The method is based on a nonlinear variable transformation, which can be considered as a generalization of linear similarity transformation, which cannot be applied to systems with multiple eigenvalues in general. An example and its simulation result show that the proposed multi-rate model gives exact responses at all sampling instants.

Keywords: Multi-rate discretization, linear systems, triangularization, similarity transformation, diagonalization, exponential transformation, multiple eigenvalues

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Authors: V. D. Thi, M. Li, M. Khelifa, M. El Ganaoui, Y. Rogaume

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This paper presents a two-dimensional model to study the heat and moisture transfer through porous building materials. Dynamic and static coupled models of heat and moisture transfer in porous material under low temperature are presented and the coupled models together with variable initial and boundary conditions have been considered in an analytical way and using the finite element method. The resulting coupled model is converted to two nonlinear partial differential equations, which is then numerically solved by an implicit iterative scheme. The numerical results of temperature and moisture potential changes are compared with the experimental measurements available in the literature. Predicted results demonstrate validation of the theoretical model and effectiveness of the developed numerical algorithms. It is expected to provide useful information for the porous building material design based on heat and moisture transfer model.

Keywords: Finite element method, heat transfer, moisture transfer, porous materials, wood.

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Authors: Nur Azaliah Abu Bakar, Harihodin Selamat, Mohd Nazri Kama

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This article provides a systematic review of existing research related to the Service-oriented Enterprise Architecture (SoEA) adoption and maturity measurement model. The review’s main goals are to support research; to facilitate other researchers’ search for relevant studies; and to propose areas for future studies within this area. In addition, this article provides useful information on SoEA adoption issues and its related maturity model, based on research-based knowledge. The review results suggest that motives, critical success factors (CSFs), implementation status, and benefits are the most frequently studied areas, and that each of these areas would benefit from further exposure.

Keywords: Systematic Literature Review, Service-oriented Architecture, Adoption, Maturity Model.

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Authors: Ava Dodd, Jonathan Adams

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The purpose of this study is to explore the characteristics of developing a machine learning application using synthetic data. The study is structured to develop the application for the purpose of deploying the computer vision model. The findings discuss the realities of attempting to develop a computer vision model for practical purpose, and detail the processes, tools and techniques that were used to meet accuracy requirements. The research reveals that synthetic data represent another variable that can be adjusted to improve the performance of a computer vision model. Further, a suite of tools and tuning recommendations are provided.

Keywords: computer vision, machine learning, synthetic data, YOLOv4

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Authors: Ravinu Garg, Naresh V. Datla

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We study the fracture mechanics of peeling of thin films perfectly bonded to a rigid substrate of any random surface topology using an analytical formulation. A generalized theoretical model has been developed to determine the peel strength of thin elastic films. It is demonstrated that an improvement in the peel strength can be achieved by modifying the surface characteristics of the rigid substrate. Characterization study has been performed to analyze the effect of different parameters on effective peel force from the rigid surface. Different surface profiles such as circular and sinusoidal has been considered to demonstrate the bonding characteristics of film-substrate interface. Condition for the instability in the debonding of the film is analyzed, where the localized self-debonding arises depending upon the film and surface characteristics. This study is towards improved adhesion strength of thin films to rigid substrate using different textured surfaces.

Keywords: Debonding, fracture mechanics, surface topology, thin film adhesion.

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Authors: Oktavian Muhammad Rizki, Appiah Rita, Lastres Oscar, Miller True, Chapman Alec, Tsoukalas Lefteri H.

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The Purdue University Research Reactor-1 (PUR-1) is a 10 kWth pool-type research reactor located at Purdue University’s West Lafayette campus. The reactor was recently upgraded to use entirely digital instrumentation and control systems. However, currently, there is no automated control system to regulate the power in the reactor. We propose a fuzzy logic controller as a form of digital twin to complement the existing digital instrumentation system to monitor and stabilize power control using existing experimental data. This work assesses the feasibility of a power controller based on a Fuzzy Rule-Based System (FRBS) by modelling and simulation with a MATLAB algorithm. The controller uses power error and reactor period as inputs and generates reactivity insertion as output. The reactivity insertion is then converted to control rod height using a logistic function based on information from the recorded experimental reactor control rod data. To test the capability of the proposed fuzzy controller, a point-kinetic reactor model is utilized based on the actual PUR-1 operation conditions and a Monte Carlo N-Particle simulation result of the core to numerically compute the neutronics parameters of reactor behavior. The Point Kinetic Equation (PKE) was employed to model dynamic characteristics of the research reactor since it explains the interactions between the spatial and time varying input and output variables efficiently. The controller is demonstrated computationally using various cases: startup, power maneuver, and shutdown. From the test results, it can be proved that the implemented fuzzy controller can satisfactorily regulate the reactor power to follow demand power without compromising nuclear safety measures.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, power controller, reactivity, research reactor.

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Authors: Mouse, cardiac myocytes, computer simulation, action potential.

Abstract:

Heterogeneous repolarization causes dispersion of the T-wave and has been linked to arrhythmogenesis. Such heterogeneities appear due to differential expression of ionic currents in different regions of the heart, both in healthy and diseased animals and humans. Mice are important animals for the study of heart diseases because of the ability to create transgenic animals. We used our previously reported model of mouse ventricular myocytes to develop 2D mouse ventricular tissue model consisting of 14,000 cells (apical or septal ventricular myocytes) and to study the stability of action potential propagation and Ca2+ dynamics. The 2D tissue model was implemented as a FORTRAN program code for highperformance multiprocessor computers that runs on 36 processors. Our tissue model is able to simulate heterogeneities not only in action potential repolarization, but also heterogeneities in intracellular Ca2+ transients. The multicellular model reproduced experimentally observed velocities of action potential propagation and demonstrated the importance of incorporation of realistic Ca2+ dynamics for action potential propagation. The simulations show that relatively sharp gradients of repolarization are predicted to exist in 2D mouse tissue models, and they are primarily determined by the cellular properties of ventricular myocytes. Abrupt local gradients of channel expression can cause alternans at longer pacing basic cycle lengths than gradual changes, and development of alternans depends on the site of stimulation.

Keywords: Mouse, cardiac myocytes, computer simulation, action potential

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Authors: Shamsuddin Ahmed, M. G. M. Khan, Biman Prasad, Avlin Prasad

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The focus of this paper is to construct daily time series exchange rate forecast models of Samoan Tala/USD and Tala/AUD during the year 2008 to 2012 with neural network The performance of the models was measured by using varies error functions such as Root Square mean error (RSME), Mean absolute error (MAE), and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Our empirical findings suggest that AR (1) model is an effective tool to forecast the Tala/USD and Tala/AUD.

Keywords: Neural Network Forecasting Model, Autoregressive time series, Exchange rate, Tala/AUD, winters model.

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Authors: Arshia Azam, J. Amarnath, Ch. D. V. Paradesi Rao

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The advantage of solving the complex nonlinear problems by utilizing fuzzy logic methodologies is that the experience or expert-s knowledge described as a fuzzy rule base can be directly embedded into the systems for dealing with the problems. The current limitation of appropriate and automated designing of fuzzy controllers are focused in this paper. The structure discovery and parameter adjustment of the Branched T-S fuzzy model is addressed by a hybrid technique of type constrained sparse tree algorithms. The simulation result for different system model is evaluated and the identification error is observed to be minimum.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, branch T-S fuzzy model, tree modeling, complex nonlinear system.

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Authors: Hanieh Jalali, Ahmad Baraani

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Nowaday-s, many organizations use systems that support business process as a whole or partially. However, in some application domains, like software development and health care processes, a normative Process Aware System (PAS) is not suitable, because a flexible support is needed to respond rapidly to new process models. On the other hand, a flexible Process Aware System may be vulnerable to undesirable and fraudulent executions, which imposes a tradeoff between flexibility and security. In order to make this tradeoff available, a genetic-based anomaly detection model for logs of Process Aware Systems is presented in this paper. The detection of an anomalous trace is based on discovering an appropriate process model by using genetic process mining and detecting traces that do not fit the appropriate model as anomalous trace; therefore, when used in PAS, this model is an automated solution that can support coexistence of flexibility and security.

Keywords: Anomaly Detection, Genetic Algorithm, ProcessAware Systems, Process Mining.

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Authors: Ö. Şenyiğit, A. Çolak

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It is of great importance for an architectural student to know the parameters through which he/she can conduct his/her design and makes his/her design effective in architectural education. Therefore; an empirical application study was carried out through the designing activity using the emulation model to support the design and design approaches of architectural students. During the investigation period, studies were done on the basic design elements and principles of the fall semester, and the emulation model, one of the designing methods that constitute the subject of the study, was fictionalized as three phased “recognition-interpretation-application”. As a result of the study, it was observed that when students were given a key method during the design process, their awareness increased and their aspects improved as well.

Keywords: Basic design, design education, design methods, emulation.

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Authors: Nureddin Dinler, Nuri Yucel

Abstract:

Improving the performance of internal combustion engines is one of the major concerns of researchers. Experimental studies are more expensive than computational studies. Also using computational techniques allows one to obtain all the required data for the cylinder, some of which could not be measured. In this study, an axisymmetric homogeneous charged spark ignition engine was modeled. Fluid motion and combustion process were investigated numerically. Turbulent flow conditions were considered. Standard k- ε turbulence model for fluid flow and eddy break-up model for turbulent combustion were utilized. The effects of valve angle on the fluid flow and combustion are analyzed for constant air/fuel and compression ratios. It is found that, velocities and strength of tumble increases in-cylinder flow and due to increase in turbulence strength, the flame propagation is faster for small valve angles.

Keywords: CFD simulation, eddy break-up model, k-εturbulence model, reciprocating engine flow and combustion.

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Authors: Tao Dai, Andy Adler, Behnam Shahrrava

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This paper presents a forgetting factor scheme for variable step-size affine projection algorithms (APA). The proposed scheme uses a forgetting processed input matrix as the projection matrix of pseudo-inverse to estimate system deviation. This method introduces temporal weights into the projection matrix, which is typically a better model of the real error's behavior than homogeneous temporal weights. The regularization overcomes the ill-conditioning introduced by both the forgetting process and the increasing size of the input matrix. This algorithm is tested by independent trials with coloured input signals and various parameter combinations. Results show that the proposed algorithm is superior in terms of convergence rate and misadjustment compared to existing algorithms. As a special case, a variable step size NLMS with forgetting factor is also presented in this paper.

Keywords: Adaptive signal processing, affine projection algorithms, variable step-size adaptive algorithms, regularization.

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Authors: Wataru Nakamura, Tomoaki Hashimoto, Liang-Kuang Chen

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This paper provides a state estimation method for automatic control systems of nonlinear vehicle dynamics. A nonlinear tire model is employed to represent the realistic behavior of a vehicle. In general, all the state variables of control systems are not precisedly known, because those variables are observed through output sensors and limited parts of them might be only measurable. Hence, automatic control systems must incorporate some type of state estimation. It is needed to establish a state estimation method for nonlinear vehicle dynamics with restricted measurable state variables. For this purpose, unscented Kalman filter method is applied in this study for estimating the state variables of nonlinear vehicle dynamics. The objective of this paper is to propose a state estimation method using unscented Kalman filter for nonlinear vehicle dynamics. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: State estimation, control systems, observer systems, unscented Kalman filter, nonlinear vehicle dynamics.

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Authors: Mahmoud Roushdy, Mohamed El Naggar, Ahmed Yehia Abdelaziz

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Anchored sheet pile has been used worldwide as front quay walls for decades. With the increase in vessel drafts and weights, those sheet pile walls need to be upgraded by increasing the depth of the dredging line in front of the wall. One of the upgrades for the sheet pile wall is to add a separated platform to the system, where the platform is structurally separated from the front wall. The platform is structurally separated from the front wall. This paper presents a numerical investigation utilizing finite element analysis on the behavior of separated relieve platforms installed within existing anchored sheet pile quay walls. The investigation was done in two steps: a verification step followed by a parametric study. In the verification step, the numerical model was verified based on field measurements performed by others. The validated model was extended within the parametric study to a series of models with different backfill soils, separation gap width, and number of pile rows supporting the platform. The results of the numerical investigation show that using stiff clay as backfill soil (neglecting consolidation) gives better performance for the front wall and the first pile row adjacent to sandy backfills. The degree of compaction of the sandy backfill slightly increases lateral deformations but reduces bending moment acting on pile rows, while the effect is minor on the front wall. In addition, the increase in the separation gap width gradually increases bending moments on the front wall regardless of the backfill soil type, while this effect is reversed on pile rows (gradually decrease). Finally, the paper studies the possibility of deepening the basin along with the separation to take advantage of the positive separation effect on piles, and front wall.

Keywords: Anchored sheet pile, relieving platform, separation gap, upgrade quay wall.

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Authors: Jawairia Umar, Tanveer Hussain, Zulfiqar Ali, Muhammad Maqsood

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Different knitted structures and knitted parameters play a vital role in the stretch and recovery management of compression sportswear in addition to the materials use to generate this stretch and recovery behavior of the fabric. The present work was planned to predict the different performance indicators of a compression sportswear fabric with some ground parameters i.e. base yarn stitch length (polyester as base yarn and spandex as plating yarn involve to make a compression fabric) and linear density of the spandex which is a key material of any sportswear fabric. The prediction models were generated by response surface method for performance indicators such as stretch & recovery percentage, compression generated by the garment on body, total elongation on application of high power force and load generated on certain percentage extension in fabric. Certain physical properties of the fabric were also modeled using these two parameters.

Keywords: Compression, sportswear, stretch and recovery, statistical model, kikuhime.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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