Search results for: Dynamic decision model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9517

Search results for: Dynamic decision model

9367 Simulating and Forecasting Qualitative Marcoeconomic Models Using Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Authors: Spiros Mazarakis, George Matzavinos, Peter P. Groumpos

Abstract:

Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed

Keywords: Macroeconomic Models, Mamdani Rule Based- FCMs(MBFCMs), Qualitative and Dynamics System, Simulation.

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9366 A Performance Model for Designing Network in Reverse Logistic

Authors: S. Dhib, S. A. Addouche, T. Loukil, A. Elmhamedi

Abstract:

In this paper, a reverse supply chain network is investigated for a decision making. This decision is surrounded by complex flows of returned products, due to the increasing quantity, the type of returned products and the variety of recovery option products (reuse, recycling, and refurbishment). The most important problem in the reverse logistic network (RLN) is to orient returned products to the suitable type of recovery option. However, returned products orientations from collect sources to the recovery disposition have not well considered in performance model. In this study, we propose a performance model for designing a network configuration on reverse logistics. Conceptual and analytical models are developed with taking into account operational, economic and environmental factors on designing network.

Keywords: Reverse logistics, Network design, Performance model, Open loop configuration.

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9365 Decision Support System for Suppliers

Authors: Babak Tashakori Bafghi, Laleh Tashakori, Reza Allahyari Soeini, Mohammad Mokhtari

Abstract:

Supplier selection is a multi criteria decision-making process that comprises tangible and intangible factors. The majority of previous supplier selection techniques do not consider strategic perspective. Besides, uncertainty is one of the most important obstacles in supplier selection. For the first, time in this paper, the idea of the algorithm " Knapsack " is used to select suppliers Moreover, an attempt has to be made to take the advantage of a simple numerical method for solving model .This is an innovation to resolve any ambiguity in choosing suppliers. This model has been tried in the suppliers selected in a competitive environment and according to all desired standards of quality and quantity to show the efficiency of the model, an industry sample has been uses.

Keywords: Knapsack, linear programming, supplier select, supply chain management.

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9364 A Fuzzy Mathematical Model for Order Acceptance and Scheduling Problem

Authors: E. Koyuncu

Abstract:

The problem of Order Acceptance and Scheduling (OAS) is defined as a joint decision of which orders to accept for processing and how to schedule them. Any linear programming model representing real-world situation involves the parameters defined by the decision maker in an uncertain way or by means of language statement. Fuzzy data can be used to incorporate vagueness in the real-life situation. In this study, a fuzzy mathematical model is proposed for a single machine OAS problem, where the orders are defined by their fuzzy due dates, fuzzy processing times, and fuzzy sequence dependent setup times. The signed distance method, one of the fuzzy ranking methods, is used to handle the fuzzy constraints in the model.

Keywords: Fuzzy mathematical programming, fuzzy ranking, order acceptance, single machine scheduling.

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9363 Dynamic Models versus Frailty Models for Recurrent Event Data

Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

Abstract:

Recurrent event data is a special type of multivariate survival data. Dynamic and frailty models are one of the approaches that dealt with this kind of data. A comparison between these two models is studied using the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes as a way of assessing the fit of the two models based on the Aalen additive regression model. Here we found both approaches took heterogeneity into account and produce residual standard deviations close to each other both in the simulation study and in the real data set.

Keywords: Dynamic, frailty, misspecification, recurrent events.

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9362 An Agent Based Dynamic Resource Scheduling Model with FCFS-Job Grouping Strategy in Grid Computing

Authors: Raksha Sharma, Vishnu Kant Soni, Manoj Kumar Mishra, Prachet Bhuyan, Utpal Chandra Dey

Abstract:

Grid computing is a group of clusters connected over high-speed networks that involves coordinating and sharing computational power, data storage and network resources operating across dynamic and geographically dispersed locations. Resource management and job scheduling are critical tasks in grid computing. Resource selection becomes challenging due to heterogeneity and dynamic availability of resources. Job scheduling is a NP-complete problem and different heuristics may be used to reach an optimal or near optimal solution. This paper proposes a model for resource and job scheduling in dynamic grid environment. The main focus is to maximize the resource utilization and minimize processing time of jobs. Grid resource selection strategy is based on Max Heap Tree (MHT) that best suits for large scale application and root node of MHT is selected for job submission. Job grouping concept is used to maximize resource utilization for scheduling of jobs in grid computing. Proposed resource selection model and job grouping concept are used to enhance scalability, robustness, efficiency and load balancing ability of the grid.

Keywords: Agent, Grid Computing, Job Grouping, Max Heap Tree (MHT), Resource Scheduling.

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9361 Behavior Model Mapping and Transformation using Model-Driven Architecture

Authors: Mohammed Abdalla Osman Mukhtar, Azween Abdullah, Alan Giffin Downe

Abstract:

Model mapping and transformation are important processes in high level system abstractions, and form the cornerstone of model-driven architecture (MDA) techniques. Considerable research in this field has devoted attention to static system abstraction, despite the fact that most systems are dynamic with high frequency changes in behavior. In this paper we provide an overview of work that has been done with regard to behavior model mapping and transformation, based on: (1) the completeness of the platform independent model (PIM); (2) semantics of behavioral models; (3) languages supporting behavior model transformation processes; and (4) an evaluation of model composition to effect the best approach to describing large systems with high complexity.

Keywords: MDA; PIM, PSM, QVT, Model Transformation

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9360 Financial Information and Collective Bargaining: Conflicting or Complementing?

Authors: Humayun Murshed, Shibly Abdullah

Abstract:

The research conducted in early seventies apparently assumed the existence of a universal decision model for union negotiators and furthermore tended to regard financial information as a ‘neutral’ input into a rational decision making process. However, research in the eighties began to question the neutrality of financial information as an input in collective bargaining rather viewing it as a potentially effective means for controlling the labour force. Furthermore, this later research also started challenging the simplistic assumptions relating particularly to union objectives which have underpinned the earlier search for universal union decision models. Despite the above developments there seems to be a dearth of studies in developing countries concerning the use of financial information in collective bargaining. This paper seeks to begin to remedy this deficiency. Utilising a case study approach based on two enterprises, one in the public sector and the other a multinational, the universal decision model is rejected and it is argued that the decision whether or not to use financial information is a contingent one and such a contingency is largely defined by the context and environment in which both union and management negotiators work. An attempt is also made to identify the factors constraining as well as promoting the use of financial information in collective bargaining, these being regarded as unique to the organisations within which the case studies are conducted.

Keywords: Collective Bargaining, Developing Countries, Disclosures, Financial Information.

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9359 An Optimization Model for the Arrangement of Assembly Areas Considering Time Dynamic Area Requirements

Authors: Michael Zenker, Henrik Prinzhorn, Christian Böning, Tom Strating

Abstract:

Large-scale products are often assembled according to the job-site principle, meaning that during the assembly the product is located at a fixed position, while the area requirements are constantly changing. On one hand, the product itself is growing with each assembly step, whereas varying areas for storage, machines or working areas are temporarily required. This is an important factor when arranging products to be assembled within the factory. Currently, it is common to reserve a fixed area for each product to avoid overlaps or collisions with the other assemblies. Intending to be large enough to include the product and all adjacent areas, this reserved area corresponds to the superposition of the maximum extents of all required areas of the product. In this procedure, the reserved area is usually poorly utilized over the course of the entire assembly process; instead a large part of it remains unused. If the available area is a limited resource, a systematic arrangement of the products, which complies with the dynamic area requirements, will lead to an increased area utilization and productivity. This paper presents the results of a study on the arrangement of assembly objects assuming dynamic, competing area requirements. First, the problem situation is extensively explained, and existing research on associated topics is described and evaluated on the possibility of an adaptation. Then, a newly developed mathematical optimization model is introduced. This model allows an optimal arrangement of dynamic areas, considering logical and practical constraints. Finally, in order to quantify the potential of the developed method, some test series results are presented, showing the possible increase in area utilization.

Keywords: Dynamic area requirements, facility layout problem, optimization model, product assembly.

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9358 Environmental Decision Making Model for Assessing On-Site Performances of Building Subcontractors

Authors: Buket Metin

Abstract:

Buildings cause a variety of loads on the environment due to activities performed at each stage of the building life cycle. Construction is the first stage that affects both the natural and built environments at different steps of the process, which can be defined as transportation of materials within the construction site, formation and preparation of materials on-site and the application of materials to realize the building subsystems. All of these steps require the use of technology, which varies based on the facilities that contractors and subcontractors have. Hence, environmental consequences of the construction process should be tackled by focusing on construction technology options used in every step of the process. This paper presents an environmental decision-making model for assessing on-site performances of subcontractors based on the construction technology options which they can supply. First, construction technologies, which constitute information, tools and methods, are classified. Then, environmental performance criteria are set forth related to resource consumption, ecosystem quality, and human health issues. Finally, the model is developed based on the relationships between the construction technology components and the environmental performance criteria. The Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method is used for weighting the environmental performance criteria according to environmental priorities of decision-maker(s), while the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method is used for ranking on-site environmental performances of subcontractors using quantitative data related to the construction technology components. Thus, the model aims to provide an insight to decision-maker(s) about the environmental consequences of the construction process and to provide an opportunity to improve the overall environmental performance of construction sites.

Keywords: Construction process, construction technology, decision making, environmental performance, subcontractors.

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9357 Hospital Facility Location Selection Using Permanent Analytics Process

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, a new MCDMA approach, the permanent analytics process is proposed to assess the immovable valuation criteria and their significance in the placement of the healthcare facility. Five decision factors are considered for the value and selection of immovables. In the multiple factor selection problems, the priority vector of the criteria used to compare several immovables is first determined using the permanent analytics method, a mathematical model for the multiple criteria decisionmaking process. Then, to demonstrate the viability and efficacy of the suggested approach, twenty potential candidate locations were evaluated using the hospital site selection problem's decision criteria. The ranking accuracy of estimation was evaluated using composite programming, which took into account both the permanent analytics process and the weighted multiplicative model. 

Keywords: Hospital Facility Location Selection, Permanent Analytics Process, Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)

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9356 Analysis on the Decision-Making Model of Private Sector Companies in PPP Projects

Authors: Xueqin Shan, Chuanming Wu, Wenhua Hou, Xiaosu Ye

Abstract:

Successful public-private-partnership (PPP) implementation can not be achieved without the active participation of private sector companies. This paper examines the decision-making of private sector companies in public works delivered by the PPP model on the basis of social responsibility theory. It proposes that private sector companies should indentify objectives of entering into PPP projects, and shoulder relevant social responsibilities, while a minimum return should also be guaranteed in their favor, so as to compensate for their assumed risk and support them to take on responsibilities in the future. The paper also gives a calculation regarding the appropriate scale and reasonable degree of private sector involvement in PPP projects through the cost-benefit analysis in a specific case study, with the purpose to guide the private sector companies to create a cooperation environment resembling “symbiosis" and facilitate the smooth implementation of public works delivered by the PPP model.

Keywords: Social Responsibility Theory, Cost-benefit Analysis, PPP Projects, Private Sector Companies, Decision-making Modell

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9355 Learning of Class Membership Values by Ellipsoidal Decision Regions

Authors: Leehter Yao, Chin-Chin Lin

Abstract:

A novel method of learning complex fuzzy decision regions in the n-dimensional feature space is proposed. Through the fuzzy decision regions, a given pattern's class membership value of every class is determined instead of the conventional crisp class the pattern belongs to. The n-dimensional fuzzy decision region is approximated by union of hyperellipsoids. By explicitly parameterizing these hyperellipsoids, the decision regions are determined by estimating the parameters of each hyperellipsoid.Genetic Algorithm is applied to estimate the parameters of each region component. With the global optimization ability of GA, the learned decision region can be arbitrarily complex.

Keywords: Ellipsoid, genetic algorithm, decision regions, classification.

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9354 An Analytical Study of Small Unmanned Arial Vehicle Dynamic Stability Characteristics

Authors: Abdelhakam A. Noreldien, Sakhr B. Abudarag, Muslim S. Eltoum, Salih O. Osman

Abstract:

This paper presents an analytical study of Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (SUAV) dynamic stability derivatives. Simulating SUAV dynamics and analyzing its behavior at the earliest design stages is too important and more efficient design aspect. The approach suggested in this paper is using the wind tunnel experiment to collect the aerodynamic data and get the dynamic stability derivatives. AutoCAD Software was used to draw the case study (wildlife surveillance SUAV). The SUAV is scaled down to be 0.25% of the real SUAV dimensions and converted to a wind tunnel model. The model was tested in three different speeds for three different attitudes which are; pitch, roll and yaw. The wind tunnel results were then used to determine the case study stability derivative values, and hence it used to calculate the roots of the characteristic equation for both longitudinal and lateral motions. Finally, the characteristic equation roots were found and discussed in all possible cases.

Keywords: Model, simulating, SUAV, wind tunnel.

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9353 Carrying Out the Steps of Decision Making Process in Concrete Organization

Authors: Eva Štěpánková

Abstract:

The decision-making process is theoretically clearly defined. Generally, it includes the problem identification and analysis, data gathering, goals and criteria setting, alternatives development and optimal alternative choice and its implementation. In practice however, various modifications of the theoretical decision-making process can occur. The managers can consider some of the phases to be too complicated or unfeasible and thus they do not carry them out and conversely some of the steps can be overestimated. The aim of the paper is to reveal and characterize the perception of the individual phases of decision-making process by the managers. The research is concerned with managers in the military environment – commanders. Quantitative survey is focused cross-sectionally in the individual levels of management of the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic. On the total number of 135 respondents the analysis focuses on which of the decision-making process phases are problematic or not carried out in practice and which are again perceived to be the easiest. Then it is examined the reasons of the findings.

Keywords: Decision making, decision making process, decision problems.

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9352 Using Analytic Hierarchy Process as a Decision-Making Tool in Project Portfolio Management

Authors: D. Danesh, M. J. Ryan, A. Abbasi

Abstract:

Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures, which requires attention of several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes to support strategic project portfolio decisions. To evaluate overall efficiency at the portfolio level, it is essential to identify the functionality of specific projects as well as to aggregate those findings in a mathematically meaningful manner that indicates the strategic significance of the associated projects at a number of levels of abstraction. PPM success is directly associated with the quality of decisions made and poor judgment increases portfolio costs. Hence, various Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques have been designed and employed to support the decision-making functions. This paper reviews possible options to enhance the decision-making outcomes in organisational portfolio management processes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) both from academic and practical perspectives and will examine the usability, certainty and quality of the technique. The results of the study will also provide insight into the technical risk associated with current decision-making model to underpin initiative tracking and strategic portfolio management.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, decision support systems, multi-criteria decision-making, project portfolio management.

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9351 Component Lifecycle and Concurrency Model in Usage Control (UCON) System

Authors: P. Ghann, J. Shiguang, C. Zhou

Abstract:

Access control is one of the most challenging issues facing information security. Access control is defined as, the ability to permit or deny access to a particular computational resource or digital information by an unauthorized user or subject. The concept of usage control (UCON) has been introduced as a unified approach to capture a number of extensions for access control models and systems. In UCON, an access decision is determined by three factors: authorizations, obligations and conditions. Attribute mutability and decision continuity are two distinct characteristics introduced by UCON for the first time. An observation of UCON components indicates that, the components are predefined and static. In this paper, we propose a new and flexible model of usage control for the creation and elimination of some of these components; for example new objects, subjects, attributes and integrate these with the original UCON model. We also propose a model for concurrent usage scenarios in UCON.

Keywords: Access Control, Concurrency, Digital container, Usage control.

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9350 Strategic Decision Making Practice in Croatia – Which Decision Making Style is More Effective?

Authors: Ivana Bulog

Abstract:

Decision making is a vital part of the business world and any other field of human endeavor. Which way a business organization will take, and where that way will lead it, depends on broad range of decisions made by managers in the managerial structure. Strategic decisions are of the greatest importance for organizational success. Although much empirical research has been done trying to describe and explain its nature and effectiveness, knowledge about strategic decision making is still incomplete. This paper explores the nature of strategic decision making in particular setting - in Croatian companies. The main focus of this research is on the style that decision makers on strategic management level are following when making decisions of life importance for their companies. Two main decision making style that explain the way decision maker collects and processes available information and performs all the activities in strategic decision making process were empirical tested: rational and intuitive one. Besides analyzing their existence on strategic management level in Croatian companies, their effectiveness is analyzed as well. Results showed that decision makers at strategic management level are following both styles somewhat equally in order to function effectively, and that intuitive style is more effective when considering decisions outcomes.

Keywords: Decision making style, decision making effectiveness, strategic decisions.

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9349 The Analysis of Duct Model Through Structural and Dynamic Schemes

Authors: S. H. Yahaya, J. M. Ali, M. R. Arham

Abstract:

This paper presents the analysis of duct design using static and dynamic approaches. The static approach is used to find out applicability between the design and material applied. The material used in this paper is Thermoplastic Olefins (TPO). For the dynamic approach, the focusing is only on the CFD simulations. The fatigue life in this design and material applied also covered.

Keywords: CFD, structural analysis, fluid analysis, duct design, fatigue life

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9348 Interactive Agents with Artificial Mind

Authors: Hirohide Ushida

Abstract:

This paper discusses an artificial mind model and its applications. The mind model is based on some theories which assert that emotion is an important function in human decision making. An artificial mind model with emotion is built, and the model is applied to action selection of autonomous agents. In three examples, the agents interact with humans and their environments. The examples show the proposed model effectively work in both virtual agents and real robots.

Keywords: Artificial mind, emotion, interactive agent, pet robot

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9347 Reciprocating Equipment Piston Rod Dynamic Elastic-Plastic Deformation Analysis

Authors: Amin Almasi

Abstract:

Analysis of reciprocating equipment piston rod leads to nonlinear elastic-plastic deformation analysis of rod with initial imperfection under axial dynamic load. In this paper a new and effective model and analytical formulations are presented to evaluate dynamic deformation and elastic-plastic stresses of reciprocating machine piston rod. This new method has capability to account for geometric nonlinearity, elastic-plastic deformation and dynamic effects. Proposed method can be used for evaluation of piston rod performance for various reciprocating machines under different operation situations. Rod load curves and maximum allowable rod load are calculated with presented method for a refinery type reciprocating compressor. Useful recommendations and guidelines for rod load, rod load reversal and rod drop monitoring are also addressed.

Keywords: Deformation, Reciprocating Equipment, Rod.

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9346 The Impacts of Local Decision Making on Customisation Process Speed across Distributed Boundaries: A Case Study

Authors: A. M. Qahtani, G. B. Wills, A. M. Gravell

Abstract:

Communicating and managing customers’ requirements in software development projects play a vital role in the software development process. While it is difficult to do so locally, it is even more difficult to communicate these requirements over distributed boundaries and to convey them to multiple distribution customers. This paper discusses the communication of multiple distribution customers’ requirements in the context of customised software products. The main purpose is to understand the challenges of communicating and managing customisation requirements across distributed boundaries. We propose a model for Communicating Customisation Requirements of Multi-Clients in a Distributed Domain (CCRD). Thereafter, we evaluate that model by presenting the findings of a case study conducted with a company with customisation projects for 18 distributed customers. Then, we compare the outputs of the real case process and the outputs of the CCRD model using simulation methods. Our conjecture is that the CCRD model can reduce the challenge of communication requirements over distributed organisational boundaries, and the delay in decision making and in the entire customisation process time.

Keywords: Customisation Software Products, Global Software Engineering, Local Decision Making, Requirement Engineering, Simulation Model.

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9345 Formal Modeling and Verification of Software Models

Authors: Siamak Rasulzadeh

Abstract:

Graph transformation has recently become more and more popular as a general visual modeling language to formally state the dynamic semantics of the designed models. Especially, it is a very natural formalism for languages which basically are graph (e.g. UML). Using this technique, we present a highly understandable yet precise approach to formally model and analyze the behavioral semantics of UML 2.0 Activity diagrams. In our proposal, AGG is used to design Activities, then using our previous approach to model checking graph transformation systems, designers can verify and analyze designed Activity diagrams by checking the interesting properties as combination of graph rules and LTL (Linear Temporal Logic) formulas on the Activities.

Keywords: UML 2.0 Activity, Verification, Model Checking, Graph Transformation, Dynamic Semantics.

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9344 Bayesian Networks for Earthquake Magnitude Classification in a Early Warning System

Authors: G. Zazzaro, F.M. Pisano, G. Romano

Abstract:

During last decades, worldwide researchers dedicated efforts to develop machine-based seismic Early Warning systems, aiming at reducing the huge human losses and economic damages. The elaboration time of seismic waveforms is to be reduced in order to increase the time interval available for the activation of safety measures. This paper suggests a Data Mining model able to correctly and quickly estimate dangerousness of the running seismic event. Several thousand seismic recordings of Japanese and Italian earthquakes were analyzed and a model was obtained by means of a Bayesian Network (BN), which was tested just over the first recordings of seismic events in order to reduce the decision time and the test results were very satisfactory. The model was integrated within an Early Warning System prototype able to collect and elaborate data from a seismic sensor network, estimate the dangerousness of the running earthquake and take the decision of activating the warning promptly.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Decision Support System, Magnitude Classification, Seismic Early Warning System

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9343 Formulation, Analysis and Validation of Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Modeling For Robotic Monipulators

Authors: Rafael Jorge Menezes Santos, Ginalber Luiz de Oliveira Serra, Carlos César Teixeira Ferreira

Abstract:

This paper proposes a methodology for analysis of the dynamic behavior of a robotic manipulator in continuous time. Initially this system (nonlinear system) will be decomposed into linear submodels and analyzed in the context of the Linear and Parameter Varying (LPV) Systems. The obtained linear submodels, which represent the local dynamic behavior of the robotic manipulator in some operating points were grouped in a Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy structure. The obtained fuzzy model was analyzed and validated through analog simulation, as universal approximator of the robotic manipulator.

Keywords: modeling of nonlinear dynamic systems, Takagi- Sugeno fuzzy model, Linear and Parameter Varying (LPV) System.

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9342 Averaging Model of a Three-Phase Controlled Rectifier Feeding an Uncontrolled Buck Converter

Authors: P. Ruttanee, K-N. Areerak, K-L. Areerak

Abstract:

Dynamic models of power converters are normally time-varying because of their switching actions. Several approaches are applied to analyze the power converters to achieve the timeinvariant models suitable for system analysis and design via the classical control theory. The paper presents how to derive dynamic models of the power system consisting of a three-phase controlled rectifier feeding an uncontrolled buck converter by using the combination between the well known techniques called the DQ and the generalized state-space averaging methods. The intensive timedomain simulations of the exact topology model are used to support the accuracies of the reported model. The results show that the proposed model can provide good accuracies in both transient and steady-state responses.

Keywords: DQ method, Generalized state-space averaging method, Three-phase controlled rectifier, Uncontrolled buck converter, Averaging model, Modeling, Simulation.

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9341 Response of Pavement under Temperature and Vehicle Coupled Loading

Authors: Yang Zhong, Mei-jie Xu

Abstract:

To study the dynamic mechanics response of asphalt pavement under the temperature load and vehicle loading, asphalt pavement was regarded as multilayered elastic half-space system, and theory analysis was conducted by regarding dynamic modulus of asphalt mixture as the parameter. Firstly, based on the dynamic modulus test of asphalt mixture, function relationship between the dynamic modulus of representative asphalt mixture and temperature was obtained. In addition, the analytical solution for thermal stress in single layer was derived by using Laplace integral transformation and Hankel integral transformation respectively by using thermal equations of equilibrium. The analytical solution of calculation model of thermal stress in asphalt pavement was derived by transfer matrix of thermal stress in multilayer elastic system. Finally, the variation of thermal stress in pavement structure was analyzed. The result shows that there is obvious difference between the thermal stress based on dynamic modulus and the solution based on static modulus. So the dynamic change of parameter in asphalt mixture should be taken into consideration when theoretical analysis is taken out.

Keywords: Asphalt pavement, dynamic modulus, integral transformation, transfer matrix, thermal stress.

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9340 Decision Support System for Flood Crisis Management using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Akira Yano, Nishiyama Soichi

Abstract:

This paper presents an alternate approach that uses artificial neural network to simulate the flood level dynamics in a river basin. The algorithm was developed in a decision support system environment in order to enable users to process the data. The decision support system is found to be useful due to its interactive nature, flexibility in approach and evolving graphical feature and can be adopted for any similar situation to predict the flood level. The main data processing includes the gauging station selection, input generation, lead-time selection/generation, and length of prediction. This program enables users to process the flood level data, to train/test the model using various inputs and to visualize results. The program code consists of a set of files, which can as well be modified to match other purposes. This program may also serve as a tool for real-time flood monitoring and process control. The running results indicate that the decision support system applied to the flood level seems to have reached encouraging results for the river basin under examination. The comparison of the model predictions with the observed data was satisfactory, where the model is able to forecast the flood level up to 5 hours in advance with reasonable prediction accuracy. Finally, this program may also serve as a tool for real-time flood monitoring and process control.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Neural Network, Flood Level

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9339 Optimal Estimation of Supporting-Ground Orientation for Multi-Segment Body Based on Otolith-Canal Fusion

Authors: Karim A. Tahboub

Abstract:

This article discusses the problem of estimating the orientation of inclined ground on which a human subject stands based on information provided by the vestibular system consisting of the otolith and semicircular canals. It is assumed that body segments are not necessarily aligned and thus forming an open kinematic chain. The semicircular canals analogues to a technical gyrometer provide a measure of the angular velocity whereas the otolith analogues to a technical accelerometer provide a measure of the translational acceleration. Two solutions are proposed and discussed. The first is based on a stand-alone Kalman filter that optimally fuses the two measurements based on their dynamic characteristics and their noise properties. In this case, no body dynamic model is needed. In the second solution, a central extended disturbance observer that incorporates a body dynamic model (internal model) is employed. The merits of both solutions are discussed and demonstrated by experimental and simulation results.

Keywords: Kalman filter, orientation estimation, otolith-canalfusion, vestibular system.

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9338 Effect of the Machine Frame Structures on the Frequency Responses of Spindle Tool

Authors: Yuan L. Lai, Yong R. Chen, Jui P. Hung, Tzuo L. Luo, Hsi H. Hsiao

Abstract:

Chatter vibration has been a troublesome problem for a machine tool toward the high precision and high speed machining. Essentially, the machining performance is determined by the dynamic characteristics of the machine tool structure and dynamics of cutting process. Therefore the dynamic vibration behavior of spindle tool system greatly determines the performance of machine tool. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influences of the machine frame structure on the dynamic frequency of spindle tool unit through finite element modeling approach. To this end, a realistic finite element model of the vertical milling system was created by incorporated the spindle-bearing model into the spindle head stock of the machine frame. Using this model, the dynamic characteristics of the milling machines with different structural designs of spindle head stock and identical spindle tool unit were demonstrated. The results of the finite element modeling reveal that the spindle tool unit behaves more compliant when the excited frequency approaches the natural mode of the spindle tool; while the spindle tool show a higher dynamic stiffness at lower frequency that may be initiated by the structural mode of milling head. Under this condition, it is concluded that the structural configuration of spindle head stock associated with the vertical column of milling machine plays an important role in determining the machining dynamics of the spindle unit.

Keywords: Machine tools, Compliance, Frequency response function, Machine frame structure, Spindle unit

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