Search results for: Binomial regression model

Authors: M. H. Ayazi, M. Qamari, N.Hedayat, A. Rohani

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Simulation of the flow and sedimentation process in the reservoir dams can be made by two methods of physical and mathematical modeling. The study area was within a region which ranged from the Jelogir hydrometric station to the Karkheh reservoir dam aimed at investigating the effects of stream tubes on the GSTARS-3 model behavior. The methodologies was to run the model based on 5 stream tubes in order to observe the influence of each scenario on longitudinal profiles, cross-section, flow velocity and bed load sediment size. Results further suggest that the use of two stream tubes or more which result in the semi-two-dimensional model will yield relatively closer results to the observational data than a singular stream tube modeling. Moreover, the results of modeling with three stream tubes shown to yield a relatively close results with the observational data. The overall conclusion of the paper is with applying various stream tubes; it would be possible to yield a significant influence on the modeling behavior Vis-a Vis the bed load sediment size.

Keywords: Karkheh, stream tubes, GSTARS-3 Model, Jelogir hydrometric station.

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Authors: Mihails Kulikovs, Ernests Petersons

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Network management techniques have long been of interest to the networking research community. The queue size plays a critical role for the network performance. The adequate size of the queue maintains Quality of Service (QoS) requirements within limited network capacity for as many users as possible. The appropriate estimation of the queuing model parameters is crucial for both initial size estimation and during the process of resource allocation. The accurate resource allocation model for the management system increases the network utilization. The present paper demonstrates the results of empirical observation of memory allocation for packet-based services.

Keywords: Queuing System, Packet Loss Probability, Measurement-Based Admission Control (MBAC), Performanceevaluation, Quality of Service (QoS).

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Authors: Somkiat Wangsiripitak

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Virtual touch screen using camera is an ordinary screen which uses a camera to imitate the touch screen by taking a picture of an indicator, e.g., finger, which is laid on the screen, converting the indicator tip position on the picture to the position on the screen, and moving the cursor on the screen to that position. In fact, the indicator is not laid on the screen directly, but it is intervened by the cover at some intervals. In spite of this gap, if the eye-indicator-camera angle is not large, the mapping from the indicator tip positions on the image to the corresponding cursor positions on the screen is not difficult and could be done with a little error. However, the larger the angle is, the bigger the error in the mapping occurs. This paper proposes cursor position estimation model for virtual touch screen using camera which could eliminate this kind of error. The proposed model (i) moves the on-screen pilot cursor to the screen position which locates on the screen at the position just behind the indicator tip when the indicator tip has been looked from the camera position, and then (ii) converts that pilot cursor position to the desirable cursor position (the position on the screen when it has been looked from the user-s eye through the indicator tip) by using the bilinear transformation. Simulation results show the correctness of the estimated cursor position by using the proposed model.

Keywords: Bilinear transformation, cursor position, pilot cursor, virtual touch screen.

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Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

Abstract:

The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: Angle of internal friction, Cone penetrating test, General regression neural network, Soil modulus of elasticity.

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Authors: J.W. Xiang, M. Liang

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This paper presents a method to detect multiple cracks based on frequency information. When a structure is subjected to dynamic or static loads, cracks may develop and the modal frequencies of the cracked structure may change. To detect cracks in a structure, we construct a high precision wavelet finite element (EF) model of a certain structure using the B-spline wavelet on the interval (BSWI). Cracks can be modeled by rotational springs and added to the FE model. The crack detection database will be obtained by solving that model. Then the crack locations and depths can be determined based on the frequency information from the database. The performance of the proposed method has been numerically verified by a rotor example.

Keywords: Rotor, frequency measurement, multiple cracks, wavelet finite element method, identification.

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Authors: G.–A. Constantin, G. Voicu, E.–M. Stefan, P. Tudor, G. Paraschiv, M.–G. Munteanu

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In the activity of handling and transport of food products, the products may be subjected to mechanical stresses that may lead to their deterioration by deformation, breaking, or crushing. This is the case for biscuits, regardless of their type (gluten-free or sugary), the addition of ingredients or flour from which they are made. However, gluten-free biscuits have a higher mechanical resistance to breakage or crushing compared to easily shattered sugar biscuits (especially those for children). The paper presents the results of the experimental evaluation of the texture for four varieties of commercial biscuits, using the penetrometer equipped with needle cone at five different additional weights on the cone-rod. The assortments of biscuits tested in the laboratory were Petit Beurre, Picnic, and Maia (all three manufactured by RoStar, Romania) and Sultani diet biscuits, manufactured by Eti Burcak Sultani (Turkey, in packs of 138 g). For the four varieties of biscuits and the five additional weights (50, 77, 100, 150 and 177 g), the experimental data obtained were subjected to regression analysis in the MS Office Excel program, using Velon's relationship (h = a∙ln(t) + b). The regression curves were analysed comparatively in order to identify possible differences and to highlight the variation of the penetration depth h, in relation to the time t. Based on the penetration depth between two-time intervals (every 5 seconds), the curves of variation of the penetration speed in relation to time were then drawn. It was found that Velon's law verifies the experimental data for all assortments of biscuits and for all five additional weights. The correlation coefficient R2 had in most of the analysed cases values over 0.850. The values recorded for the penetration depth were framed, in general, within 45-55 p.u. (penetrometric units) at an additional mass of 50 g, respectively between 155-168 p.u., at an additional mass of 177 g, at Petit Beurre biscuits. For Sultani diet biscuits, the values of the penetration depth were within the limits of 32-35 p.u., at an additional weight of 50 g and between 80-114 p.u., at an additional weight of 177g. The data presented in the paper can be used by both operators on the manufacturing technology flow, as well as by the traders of these food products, in order to establish the most efficient parametric of the working regimes (when packaging and handling).

Keywords: Biscuits resistance/texture, penetration depth, penetration velocity, sharp pin penetrometer.

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Authors: Norfadzila, S.W.A., Balakrishnan, V., A. Abrizah

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The purpose of this paper is to propose an integrated consumer health informatics utilization framework that can be used to gauge the online health information needs and usage patterns among Malaysian women. The proposed framework was developed based on four different theories/models: Use and Gratification Theory, Technology Acceptance 3 Model, Health Belief Model, and Multi-level Model of Information Seeking. The relevant constructs and research hypotheses are also presented in this paper. The framework will be tested in order for it to be used successfully to identify Malaysian women-s preferences of online health information resources and health information seeking activities.

Keywords: Consumer Health Informatics, Consumer Preferences, Information Needs and Usage Patterns, Online Health Information, Women Studies

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Authors: H. Baseri, G. Alinejad

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The objective of this study is to design an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for estimation of surface roughness in grinding process. The Used data have been generated from experimental observations when the wheel has been dressed using a rotary diamond disc dresser. The input parameters of model are dressing speed ratio, dressing depth and dresser cross-feed rate and output parameter is surface roughness. In the experimental procedure the grinding conditions are constant and only the dressing conditions are varied. The comparison of the predicted values and the experimental data indicates that the ANFIS model has a better performance with respect to back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model which has been presented by the authors in previous work for estimation of the surface roughness.

Keywords: Grinding, ANFIS, Neural network, Disc dressing.

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Authors: Abdulsalam A. Al-Sudairi

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Object-oriented simulation is considered one of the most sophisticated techniques that has been widely used in planning, designing, executing and maintaining construction projects. This technique enables the modeler to focus on objects which is extremely important for thorough understanding of a system. Thus, identifying an object is an essential point of building a successful simulation model. In a maintenance process an object is a maintenance work order (MWO). This study demonstrates a maintenance simulation model for the building maintenance division of Saudi Consolidated Electric Company (SCECO) in Dammam, Saudi Arabia. The model focused on both types of maintenance processes namely: (1) preventive maintenance (PM) and (2) corrective maintenance (CM). It is apparent from the findings that object-oriented simulation is a good diagnostic and experimental tool. This is because problems, limitations, bottlenecks and so forth are easily identified. These features are very difficult to obtain when using other tools.

Keywords: Object oriented, simulation, maintenance, process, work orders

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Authors: Wei Lei, Hui Chen, Lin Lu

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Microscopic emission and fuel consumption models have been widely recognized as an effective method to quantify real traffic emission and energy consumption when they are applied with microscopic traffic simulation models. This paper presents a framework for developing the Microscopic Emission (HC, CO, NOx, and CO2) and Fuel consumption (MEF) models for light-duty vehicles. The variable of composite acceleration is introduced into the MEF model with the purpose of capturing the effects of historical accelerations interacting with current speed on emission and fuel consumption. The MEF model is calibrated by multivariate least-squares method for two types of light-duty vehicle using on-board data collected in Beijing, China by a Portable Emission Measurement System (PEMS). The instantaneous validation results shows the MEF model performs better with lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to other two models. Moreover, the aggregate validation results tells the MEF model produces reasonable estimations compared to actual measurements with prediction errors within 12%, 10%, 19%, and 9% for HC, CO, NOx emissions and fuel consumption, respectively.

Keywords: Emission, Fuel consumption, Light-duty vehicle, Microscopic, Modeling.

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Authors: Anton Purnama

Abstract:

Multiport diffusers are the effective engineering devices installed at the modern marine outfalls for the steady discharge of effluent streams from the coastal plants, such as municipal sewage treatment, thermal power generation and seawater desalination. A mathematical model using a two-dimensional advection-diffusion equation based on a flat seabed and incorporating the effect of a coastal tidal current is developed to calculate the compounded concentration following discharges of desalination brine from a sea outfall with multiport diffusers. The analytical solutions are computed graphically to illustrate the merging of multiple brine plumes in shallow coastal waters, and further approximation will be made to the maximum shoreline's concentration to formulate dilution of a multiport diffuser discharge.

Keywords: Desalination brine discharge, mathematical model, multiport diffuser, two sea outfalls.

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Authors: F. Rahimi Dehgolan, M. Behzadi, J. Fathi Sola

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In this article, the Johnson-Cook material model’s constants for structural steel ST.37 have been determined by a method which integrates experimental tests, numerical simulation, and optimization. In the first step, a quasi-static test was carried out on a plain specimen. Next, the constants were calculated for it by minimizing the difference between the results acquired from the experiment and numerical simulation. Then, a quasi-static tension test was performed on three notched specimens with different notch radii. At last, in order to verify the results, they were used in numerical simulation of notched specimens and it was observed that experimental and simulation results are in good agreement. Changing the diameter size of the plain specimen in the necking area was set as the objective function in the optimization step. For final validation of the proposed method, diameter variation was considered as a parameter and its sensitivity to a change in any of the model constants was examined and the results were completely corroborating.

Keywords: Constants, Johnson-Cook material model, notched specimens, quasi-static test, sensitivity.

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Authors: Nader Ghareeb, R¨udiger Schmidt

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Minimizing the weight in flexible structures means reducing material and costs as well. However, these structures could become prone to vibrations. Attenuating these vibrations has become a pivotal engineering problem that shifted the focus of many research endeavors. One technique to do that is to design and implement an active control system. This system is mainly composed of a vibrating structure, a sensor to perceive the vibrations, an actuator to counteract the influence of disturbances, and finally a controller to generate the appropriate control signals. In this work, two different techniques are explored to create two different mathematical models of an active control system. The first model is a finite element model with a reduced number of nodes and it is called a super-element. The second model is in the form of state-space representation, i.e. a set of partial differential equations. The damping coefficients are calculated and incorporated into both models. The effectiveness of these models is demonstrated when the system is excited by its first natural frequency and an active control strategy is developed and implemented to attenuate the resulting vibrations. Results from both modeling techniques are presented and compared.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, super-element, state-space model.

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Authors: P. Pasomboon, P. Chumnanpuen, T. E-kobon

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Hyaluronic acid (HA) consists of linear heteropolysaccharides repeat of D-glucuronic acid and N-acetyl-D-glucosamine. HA has various useful properties to maintain skin elasticity and moisture, reduce inflammation, and lubricate the movement of various body parts without causing immunogenic allergy. HA can be found in several animal tissues as well as in the capsule component of some bacteria including Pasteurella multocida. This study aimed to modify a genome-scale metabolic model of Escherichia coli using computational simulation and flux analysis methods to predict HA productivity under different carbon sources and nitrogen supplement by the addition of two enzymes (GLMU2 and HYAD) from P. multocida to improve the HA production under the specified amount of carbon sources and nitrogen supplements. Result revealed that threonine and aspartate supplement raised the HA production by 12.186%. Our analyses proposed the genome-scale metabolic model is useful for improving the HA production and narrows the number of conditions to be tested further.

Keywords: Pasteurella multocida, Escherichia coli, hyaluronic acid, genome-scale metabolic model, bioinformatics.

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Authors: Do Hoai Nam, Keiko Udo, Akira Mano

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This paper presents the combination of different precipitation data sets and the distributed hydrological model, in order to examine the flood runoff reproductivity of scattered observation catchments. The precipitation data sets were obtained from observation using rain-gages, satellite based estimate (TRMM), and numerical weather prediction model (NWP), then were coupled with the super tank model. The case study was conducted in three basins (small, medium, and large size) located in Central Vietnam. Calculated hydrographs based on ground observation rainfall showed best fit to measured stream flow, while those obtained from TRMM and NWP showed high uncertainty of peak discharges. However, calculated hydrographs using the adjusted rainfield depicted a promising alternative for the application of TRMM and NWP in flood modeling for scattered observation catchments, especially for the extension of forecast lead time.

Keywords: Flood forecast, rainfall-runoff model, satellite rainfall estimate, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting.

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Authors: Petri Solanti, Russell Klein

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Many designers are asking for an automated path from an abstract mathematical MATLAB model to a high-quality Register-Transfer Level (RTL) hardware description. Manual transformations of MATLAB or intermediate code are needed, when the design abstraction is changed. Design conversion is problematic as it is multidimensional and it requires many different design steps to translate the mathematical representation of the desired functionality to an efficient hardware description with the same behavior and configurability. Yet, a manual model conversion is not an insurmountable task. Using currently available design tools and an appropriate design methodology, converting a MATLAB model to efficient hardware is a reasonable effort. This paper describes a simple and flexible design methodology that was developed together with several design teams.

Keywords: Design methodology, high-level synthesis, MATLAB, verification.

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Authors: Peyman Sindareh Esfahani, Jeffery Kurt Pieper

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In this paper, the problem of robust model predictive control (MPC) for discrete-time linear systems in linear fractional transformation form with structured uncertainty and norm-bounded disturbance is investigated. The problem of minimization of the cost function for MPC design is converted to minimization of the worst case of the cost function. Then, this problem is reduced to minimization of an upper bound of the cost function subject to a terminal inequality satisfying the l₂-norm of the closed loop system. The characteristic of the linear fractional transformation system is taken into account, and by using some mathematical tools, the robust predictive controller design problem is turned into a linear matrix inequality minimization problem. Afterwards, a formulation which includes an integrator to improve the performance of the proposed robust model predictive controller in steady state condition is studied. The validity of the approaches is illustrated through a robust control benchmark problem.

Keywords: Linear fractional transformation, linear matrix inequality, robust model predictive control, state feedback control.

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Authors: Kaylash Chaudhary, Ansgar Fehnker

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There are many virtual payment systems available to conduct micropayments. It is essential that the protocols satisfy the highest standards of correctness. This paper examines the Netpay Protocol [3], provide its formalization as automata model, and prove two important correctness properties, namely absence of deadlock and validity of an ecoin during the execution of the protocol. This paper assumes a cooperative customer and will prove that the protocol is executing according to its description.

Keywords: Model, Verification, Micropayment.

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Authors: Naghmeh Moradpoor Sheykhkanloo

Abstract:

Thousands of organisations store important and confidential information related to them, their customers, and their business partners in databases all across the world. The stored data ranges from less sensitive (e.g. first name, last name, date of birth) to more sensitive data (e.g. password, pin code, and credit card information). Losing data, disclosing confidential information or even changing the value of data are the severe damages that Structured Query Language injection (SQLi) attack can cause on a given database. It is a code injection technique where malicious SQL statements are inserted into a given SQL database by simply using a web browser. In this paper, we propose an effective pattern recognition neural network model for detection and classification of SQLi attacks. The proposed model is built from three main elements of: a Uniform Resource Locator (URL) generator in order to generate thousands of malicious and benign URLs, a URL classifier in order to: 1) classify each generated URL to either a benign URL or a malicious URL and 2) classify the malicious URLs into different SQLi attack categories, and a NN model in order to: 1) detect either a given URL is a malicious URL or a benign URL and 2) identify the type of SQLi attack for each malicious URL. The model is first trained and then evaluated by employing thousands of benign and malicious URLs. The results of the experiments are presented in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Neural Networks, pattern recognition, SQL injection attacks, SQL injection attack classification, SQL injection attack detection.

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Authors: Man Li, Wanting Zhou, Lei Li

Abstract:

Communication stability is the primary concern of communication satellites. Communication satellites are easily affected by particle radiation to generate single event effects (SEE), which leads to soft errors (SE) of combinational logic circuit. The existing research on soft error rates (SER) of combined logic circuit is mostly based on the assumption that the logic gates being bombarded have the same pulse width. However, in the actual radiation environment, the pulse widths of the logic gates being bombarded are different due to different linear energy transfers (LET). In order to improve the accuracy of SER evaluation model, this paper proposes a soft error rates evaluation method based on LET. In this paper, we analyze the influence of LET on the pulse width of combinational logic and establish the pulse width model based on LET. Based on this model, the error rate of test circuit ISCAS’85 is calculated. Experimental results show that this model can be used for SER evaluation.

Keywords: Communication satellite, pulse width, soft error rates, linear energy transfer, LET.

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Authors: HoYoung Son, Ki Young Kim, Woo Young Jung

Abstract:

This study investigated the change of weir structure performances when durability of concrete, which is the main material of weir structure, decreased due to their aging by mean of seismic fragility analysis. In the analysis, it was assumed that the elastic modulus of concrete was reduced by 10% in order to account for their aged deterioration. Additionally, the analysis of seismic fragility was based on Monte Carlo Simulation method combined with a 2D nonlinear finite element in ABAQUS platform with the consideration of deterioration of concrete. Finally, the comparison of seismic fragility of model pre- and post-deterioration was made to study the performance of weir. Results show that the probability of failure in moderate damage for deteriorated model was found to be larger than pre-deterioration model when peak ground acceleration (PGA) passed 0.4 g.

Keywords: Weir, FEM, concrete, fragility, aging.

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Authors: Barenten Suciu, Ryoichi Kinoshita

Abstract:

In this paper, an experimental and theoretical study on the bogie pseudo-hunting motion of a reduced-scale model railway vehicle, running on double-curved rails, is presented. Since the actual bogie hunting motion, occurring for real railway vehicles running on straight rails at high travelling speeds, cannot be obtained in laboratory conditions, due to the speed and wavelength limitations, a pseudo- hunting motion was induced by employing double-curved rails. Firstly, the test rig and the experimental procedure are described. Then, a geometrical model of the double-curved rails is presented. Based on such model, the variation of the carriage rotation angle relative to the bogies and the working conditions of the yaw damper are clarified. Vibration spectra recorded during vehicle travelling, on straight and double-curved rails, are presented and interpreted based on a simple vibration model of the railway vehicle. Ride comfort of the vehicle is evaluated according to the ISO 2631 standard, and also by using some particular frequency weightings, which account for the discomfort perceived during the reading and writing activities. Results obtained in this work are useful for the adequate design of the yaw dampers, which are used to attenuate the lateral vibration of the train car bodies.

Keywords: Double-curved rail, octave analysis, lateral vibration, ride comfort, yaw damper, railway vehicle.

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Authors: Antonio Natali, Ambra Molesini

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In modern distributed software systems, the issue of communication among composing parts represents a critical point, but the idea of extending conventional programming languages with general purpose communication constructs seems difficult to realize. As a consequence, there is a (growing) gap between the abstraction level required by distributed applications and the concepts provided by platforms that enable communication. This work intends to discuss how the Model Driven Software Development approach can be considered as a mature technology to generate in automatic way the schematic part of applications related to communication, by providing at the same time high level specialized languages useful in all the phases of software production. To achieve the goal, a stack of languages (meta-meta¬models) has been introduced in order to describe – at different levels of abstraction – the collaborative behavior of generic entities in terms of communication actions related to a taxonomy of messages. Finally, the generation of platforms for communication is viewed as a form of specification of language semantics, that provides executable models of applications together with model-checking supports and effective runtime environments.

Keywords: Interactions, specific languages, meta-models, model driven development.

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Authors: E.Darzi

Abstract:

In this study, a reformer model simulation to use refinery (Farashband refinery, Iran) waste natural gas. In the petroleum and allied sectors where natural gas is being encountered (in form of associated gas) without prior preparation for its positive use, its combustion (which takes place in flares, an equipment through which they are being disposed) has become a great problem because of its associated environmental problems in form of gaseous emission. The proposed model is used to product syngas from waste natural gas. A detailed steady model described by a set of ordinary differential and algebraic equations was developed to predict the behavior of the overall process. The proposed steady reactor model was validated against process data of a reformer synthesis plant recorded and a good agreement was achieved. H2/CO ratio has important effect on Fischer- Tropsch synthesis reactor product and we try to achieve this parameter with best designing reformer reactor. We study different kind of reformer reactors and then select auto thermal reforming process of natural gas in a fixed bed reformer that adjustment H2/CO ratio with CO2 and H2O injection. Finally a strategy was proposed for prevention of extra natural gas to atmosphere.

Keywords: Fischer-Tropsch, injection, reformer, syngas, waste natural gas.

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Authors: Ali Hamadi Dicko, Nicolas Tong-Yette, Benjamin Gilles, François Faure, Olivier Palombi

Abstract:

A novel hybrid model of the lumbar spine, allowing fast static and dynamic simulations of the disc pressure and the spine mobility, is introduced in this work. Our contribution is to combine rigid bodies, deformable finite elements, articular constraints, and springs into a unique model of the spine. Each vertebra is represented by a rigid body controlling a surface mesh to model contacts on the facet joints and the spinous process. The discs are modeled using a heterogeneous tetrahedral finite element model. The facet joints are represented as elastic joints with six degrees of freedom, while the ligaments are modeled using non-linear one-dimensional elastic elements. The challenge we tackle is to make these different models efficiently interact while respecting the principles of Anatomy and Mechanics. The mobility, the intradiscal pressure, the facet joint force and the instantaneous center of rotation of the lumbar spine are validated against the experimental and theoretical results of the literature on flexion, extension, lateral bending as well as axial rotation. Our hybrid model greatly simplifies the modeling task and dramatically accelerates the simulation of pressure within the discs, as well as the evaluation of the range of motion and the instantaneous centers of rotation, without penalizing precision. These results suggest that for some types of biomechanical simulations, simplified models allow far easier modeling and faster simulations compared to usual full-FEM approaches without any loss of accuracy.

Keywords: Hybrid, modeling, fast simulation, lumbar spine.

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Authors: A. G. Temnikov, O. S. Belova, L. L. Chernensky, T. K. Gerastenok, N. Y. Lysov, A. V. Orlov, D. S. Zhuravkova

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Hypothesis of the lightning initiation on the arrays of large hydrometeors are in the consideration. There is no agreement about the form the hydrometeors that could be the best for the lightning initiation from the thundercloud. Artificial charged water aerosol clouds of the positive or negative polarity could help investigate the possible influence of the hydrometeor form on the peculiarities and the probability of the lightning discharge initiation between the thundercloud and the ground. Artificial charged aerosol clouds that could create the electric field strength in the range of 5-6 kV/cm to 16-18 kV/cm have been used in experiments. The array of the model hydrometeors of the volume and plate form has been disposed near the bottom cloud boundary. It was established that the different kinds of the discharge could be initiated in the presence of the model hydrometeors array – from the cloud discharges up to the diffuse and channel discharges between the charged cloud and the ground. It was found that the form of the model hydrometeors could significantly influence the channel discharge initiation from the artificial charged aerosol cloud of the negative or positive polarity correspondingly. Analysis and generalization of the experimental results have shown that the maximal probability of the channel discharge initiation and propagation stimulation has been observed for the artificial charged cloud of the positive polarity when the arrays of the model hydrometeors of the cylinder revolution form have been used. At the same time, for the artificial charged clouds of the negative polarity, application of the model hydrometeor array of the plate rhombus form has provided the maximal probability of the channel discharge formation between the charged cloud and the ground. The established influence of the form of the model hydrometeors on the channel discharge initiation and from the artificial charged water aerosol cloud and its following successful propagation has been related with the different character of the positive and negative streamer and volume leader development on the model hydrometeors array being near the bottom boundary of the charged cloud. The received experimental results have shown the possibly important role of the form of the large hail particles precipitated in thundercloud on the discharge initiation.

Keywords: Cloud and channel discharges, hydrometeor form, lightning initiation, negative and positive artificial charged aerosol cloud.

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Authors: Francesco Pia

Abstract:

Stellar objects such as black, white and worm holes can be the subject of speculative reasoning if represented in a simplified and geometric form in order to be able to move them; and the cosmological model is one of the most important contents in relation to speculations that can then open the way to other aspects that are not strictly speculative but practical, precisely in the Universe represented by us. In this work, thanks to the hypothesis of a very large number of black, white and worm holes present in our Universe, we imagine that they can be moved; it was therefore thought to align them on a plane and following a redistribution, and the boundaries of this plane were ideally joined, giving rise to a sphere that has the stellar objects examined radially distributed. Thanks to geometrical displacements of these stellar objects that do not make each one of them lose their functionality in the region in which they are located, at the end of the speculative process it is possible to highlight a spherical layer that allows a flow from the outside and inside this spherical shell allowing to relate to other external and internal spherical layers; this aspect that seems useful to describe the universe we live in, for example inside one of the spherical shells just described. The name "Jewel" was chosen because, imagining the speculative process present in this work at the end of steps, the cosmological model tends to be "luminous". This cosmological model includes, for each internal part of a generic layer, different and numerous moments of our universe thanks to an eternal flow inward. There are many aspects to explore, one of these is the connection between the outermost and the inside of the spherical layers.

Keywords: Black hole, cosmological model, cosmology, white hole.

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

Abstract:

This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization.

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Authors: Kejun Zhuang, Hailong Zhu

Abstract:

The dynamics of a delayed mathematical model for Hes1 oscillatory expression are investigated. The linear stability of positive equilibrium and existence of local Hopf bifurcation are studied. Moreover, the global existence of large periodic solutions has been established due to the global bifurcation theorem.

Keywords: Hes1, Hopf bifurcation, time delay, transcriptional repression loop

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Authors: N. Haghjou, M. J. Abdekhodaie, Y. L. Cheng, M. Saadatmand

Abstract:

Intravitreal injection (IVI) is the most common treatment for eye posterior segment diseases such as endopthalmitis, retinitis, age-related macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy, uveitis, and retinal detachment. Most of the drugs used to treat vitreoretinal diseases, have a narrow concentration range in which they are effective, and may be toxic at higher concentrations. Therefore, it is critical to know the drug distribution within the eye following intravitreal injection. Having knowledge of drug distribution, ophthalmologists can decide on drug injection frequency while minimizing damage to tissues. The goal of this study was to develop a computer model to predict intraocular concentrations and pharmacokinetics of intravitreally injected drugs. A finite volume model was created to predict distribution of two drugs with different physiochemical properties in the rabbit eye. The model parameters were obtained from literature review. To validate this numeric model, the in vivo data of spatial concentration profile from the lens to the retina were compared with the numeric data. The difference was less than 5% between the numerical and experimental data. This validation provides strong support for the numerical methodology and associated assumptions of the current study.

Keywords: Posterior segment, Intravitreal injection (IVI), Pharmacokinetic, Modelling, Finite volume method.

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