Search results for: Robust fault detection

Authors: Seyed Ali Sedigh Zyabari, A. Zarifkar

Abstract:

Single photon detectors have been fabricated NbN nano wire. These detectors are fabricated from high quality, ultra high vacuum sputtered NbN thin films on a sapphire substrate. In this work a typical schematic of the nanowire Single Photon Detector structure and then driving and measurement electronic circuit are shown. The response of superconducting nanowire single photon detectors during a photo detection event, is modeled by a special electrical circuits (two circuit). Finally, current through the wire is calculated by solving equations of models.

Keywords: NbN, nanowire meander, superconducting single photon detector, kinetic inductance.

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Authors: Latha Parameswaran, K. Anbumani

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Multimedia security is an incredibly significant area of concern. The paper aims to discuss a robust image watermarking scheme, which can withstand geometric attacks. The source image is initially moment normalized in order to make it withstand geometric attacks. The moment normalized image is wavelet transformed. The first level wavelet transformed image is segmented into blocks if size 8x8. The product of mean and standard and standard deviation of each block is computed. The second level wavelet transformed image is divided into 8x8 blocks. The product of block mean and the standard deviation are computed. The difference between products in the two levels forms the watermark. The watermark is inserted by modulating the coefficients of the mid frequencies. The modulated image is inverse wavelet transformed and inverse moment normalized to generate the watermarked image. The watermarked image is now ready for transmission. The proposed scheme can be used to validate identification cards and financial instruments. The performance of this scheme has been evaluated using a set of parameters. Experimental results show the effectiveness of this scheme.

Keywords: Image moments, wavelets, content-based watermarking, moment normalization, geometric attacks.

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Authors: Apurv Kulkarni, Shreyas Badave, B. Rajiv

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Non-parametric reliability technique is useful for assessment of reliability of systems for which failure rates are not available. This is useful when detection of malfunctioning of any component is the key purpose during ongoing operation of the system. The main purpose of the Heat Exchanger Cycle discussed in this paper is to provide hot water at a constant temperature for longer periods of time. In such a cycle, certain components play a crucial role and this paper presents an effective way to predict the malfunctioning of the components by determination of system reliability. The method discussed in the paper is feasible and this is clarified with the help of various test cases.

Keywords: Heat exchanger cycle, K-statistics, PID controller, system reliability.

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Authors: Hafiz Gulfam Ahmad, Chuangdong Li, Zeeshan Ahmad

Abstract:

In this paper, we have proposed a parallel IDS and honeypot based approach to detect and analyze the unknown and known attack taxonomy for improving the IDS performance and protecting the network from intruders. The main theme of our approach is to record and analyze the intruder activities by using both the low and high interaction honeypots. Our architecture aims to achieve the required goals by combing signature based IDS, honeypots and generate the new signatures. The paper describes the basic component, design and implementation of this approach and also demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach to reduce the probability of network attacks.

Keywords: Network security, Intrusion detection, Honeypot, Snort, Nmap.

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Authors: Mojca Ciglaric, Andrej Krevl, Matjaž Pancur, Tone Vidmar

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P2P Networks are highly dynamic structures since their nodes – peer users keep joining and leaving continuously. In the paper, we study the effects of network change rates on query routing efficiency. First we describe some background and an abstract system model. The chosen routing technique makes use of cached metadata from previous answer messages and also employs a mechanism for broken path detection and metadata maintenance. Several metrics are used to show that the protocol behaves quite well even with high rate of node departures, but above a certain threshold it literally breaks down and exhibits considerable efficiency degradation.

Keywords: Network dynamics, overlay network, P2P system, routing efficiency.

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Authors: Adilson M. Enes, Juliana A. Fracarolli, Inácio M. Dal Fabbro, Silvestre Rodrigues

Abstract:

This research work proposed a study of fruit bruise detection by means of a biospeckle method, selecting the papaya fruit (Carica papaya) as testing body. Papaya is recognized as a fruit of outstanding nutritional qualities, showing high vitamin A content, calcium, carbohydrates, exhibiting high popularity all over the world, considering consumption and acceptability. The commercialization of papaya faces special problems which are associated to bruise generation during harvesting, packing and transportation. Papaya is classified as climacteric fruit, permitting to be harvested before the maturation is completed. However, by one side bruise generation is partially controlled once the fruit flesh exhibits high mechanical firmness. By the other side, mechanical loads can set a future bruise at that maturation stage, when it can not be detected yet by conventional methods. Mechanical damages of fruit skin leave an entrance door to microorganisms and pathogens, which will cause severe losses of quality attributes. Traditional techniques of fruit quality inspection include total soluble solids determination, mechanical firmness tests, visual inspections, which would hardly meet required conditions for a fully automated process. However, the pertinent literature reveals a new method named biospeckle which is based on the laser reflectance and interference phenomenon. The laser biospeckle or dynamic speckle is quantified by means of the Moment of Inertia, named after its mechanical counterpart due to similarity between the defining formulae. Biospeckle techniques are able to quantify biological activities of living tissues, which has been applied to seed viability analysis, vegetable senescence and similar topics. Since the biospeckle techniques can monitor tissue physiology, it could also detect changes in the fruit caused by mechanical damages. The proposed technique holds non invasive character, being able to generate numerical results consistent with an adequate automation. The experimental tests associated to this research work included the selection of papaya fruit at different maturation stages which were submitted to artificial mechanical bruising tests. Damages were visually compared with the frequency maps yielded by the biospeckle technique. Results were considered in close agreement.

Keywords: Biospeckle, papaya, mechanical damages, vegetable bruising.

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Authors: Kamaldeep Joshi, Rajkumar Yadav, Sachin Allwadhi

Abstract:

Image steganography is the best aspect of information hiding. In this, the information is hidden within an image and the image travels openly on the Internet. The Least Significant Bit (LSB) is one of the most popular methods of image steganography. In this method, the information bit is hidden at the LSB of the image pixel. In one bit LSB steganography method, the total numbers of the pixels and the total number of message bits are equal to each other. In this paper, the LSB method of image steganography is used for watermarking. The watermarking is an application of the steganography. The watermark contains 80*88 pixels and each pixel requirs 8 bits for its binary equivalent form so, the total number of bits required to hide the watermark are 80*88*8(56320). The experiment was performed on standard 256*256 and 512*512 size images. After the watermark insertion, histogram analysis was performed. A noise factor (salt and pepper) of 0.02 was added to the stego image in order to evaluate the robustness of the method. The watermark was successfully retrieved after insertion of noise. An experiment was performed in order to know the imperceptibility of stego and the retrieved watermark. It is clear that the LSB watermarking scheme is robust to the salt and pepper noise.

Keywords: LSB, watermarking, salt and pepper, PSNR.

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Authors: M. R. Mustafa, M. H. Isa, R. B. Rezaur

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The use of artificial neural network (ANN) modeling for prediction and forecasting variables in water resources engineering are being increasing rapidly. Infrastructural applications of ANN in terms of selection of inputs, architecture of networks, training algorithms, and selection of training parameters in different types of neural networks used in water resources engineering have been reported. ANN modeling conducted for water resources engineering variables (river sediment and discharge) published in high impact journals since 2002 to 2011 have been examined and presented in this review. ANN is a vigorous technique to develop immense relationship between the input and output variables, and able to extract complex behavior between the water resources variables such as river sediment and discharge. It can produce robust prediction results for many of the water resources engineering problems by appropriate learning from a set of examples. It is important to have a good understanding of the input and output variables from a statistical analysis of the data before network modeling, which can facilitate to design an efficient network. An appropriate training based ANN model is able to adopt the physical understanding between the variables and may generate more effective results than conventional prediction techniques.

Keywords: ANN, discharge, modeling, prediction, sediment,

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Authors: Ava Dodd, Jonathan Adams

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to explore the characteristics of developing a machine learning application using synthetic data. The study is structured to develop the application for the purpose of deploying the computer vision model. The findings discuss the realities of attempting to develop a computer vision model for practical purpose, and detail the processes, tools and techniques that were used to meet accuracy requirements. The research reveals that synthetic data represent another variable that can be adjusted to improve the performance of a computer vision model. Further, a suite of tools and tuning recommendations are provided.

Keywords: computer vision, machine learning, synthetic data, YOLOv4

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper proposes entropic programming for the freighter aircraft selection problem using the multiple criteria decision analysis method. The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive framework by focusing on the perspective of freighter aircraft selection. In order to achieve this goal, an integrated entropic programming approach was proposed to evaluate and rank alternatives. The decision criteria and aircraft alternatives were identified from the research data analysis. The objective criteria weights were determined by the mean weight method and the standard deviation method. The proposed entropic programming model was applied to a practical decision problem for evaluating and selecting freighter aircraft. The proposed entropic programming technique gives robust, reliable, and efficient results in modeling decision making analysis problems. As a result of entropic programming analysis, Boeing B747-8F, a freighter aircraft alternative ( a3), was chosen as the most suitable freighter aircraft candidate.   

Keywords: entropic programming, additive weighted model, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS, aircraft selection, freighter aircraft, Boeing B747-8F, Boeing B777F, Airbus A350F

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Authors: Sofia Matoug, Amr Abdel-Dayem

Abstract:

This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent research studies to segment and classify brain MR (magnetic resonance) images in order to detect significant changes to brain ventricles. The paper also presents a general framework for detecting regions that atrophy, which can help neurologists in detecting and staging Alzheimer. Furthermore, a prototype was implemented to segment brain MR images in order to extract the region of interest (ROI) and then, a classifier was employed to differentiate between normal and abnormal brain tissues. Experimental results show that the proposed scheme can provide a reliable second opinion that neurologists can benefit from.

Keywords: Alzheimer, brain images, classification techniques, Magnetic Resonance Images, MRI.

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Authors: C. Tung, P.-L. Tso

Abstract:

This paper presents a complete procedure for tool path planning and blade machining in 5-axis manufacturing. The actual cutting contact and cutter locations can be determined by lead and tilt angles. The tool path generation is implemented by piecewise curved approximation and chordal deviation detection. An application about drive surface method promotes flexibility of tool control and stability of machine motion. A real manufacturing process is proposed to separate the operation into three regions with five stages and to modify the local tool orientation with an interactive algorithm.

Keywords: 5-axis machining, tool orientation, lead and tilt angles, tool path generation.

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Authors: Yusuke Onoue, Seiji Fujino, Norimasa Nakashima

Abstract:

The IDR(s) method based on an extended IDR theorem was proposed by Sonneveld and van Gijzen. The original IDR(s) method has excellent property compared with the conventional iterative methods in terms of efficiency and small amount of memory. IDR(s) method, however, has unexpected property that relative residual 2-norm stagnates at the level of less than 10-12. In this paper, an effective strategy for stagnation detection, stagnation avoidance using adaptively information of parameter s and improvement of convergence rate itself of IDR(s) method are proposed in order to gain high accuracy of the approximated solution of IDR(s) method. Through numerical experiments, effectiveness of adaptive tuning IDR(s) method is verified and demonstrated.

Keywords: Krylov subspace methods, IDR(s), adaptive tuning, stagnation of relative residual.

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Authors: Nebi Gedik

Abstract:

The aim of the brain-computer interface studies on electroencephalogram (EEG) signals containing motor imagery is to extract the effective features that will provide the highest possible classification accuracy for the detection of the desired motor movement. However, achieving this goal is difficult as the most suitable frequency band and time frame vary from subject to subject. In this study, the classification success of the two-feature data obtained from raw EEG signals and the coefficients of the multi-resolution analysis method applied to the EEG signals were analyzed comparatively. The method was applied to several EEG channels (C3, Cz and C4) signals obtained from the EEG data set belonging to the publicly available BCI competition III.

Keywords: Motor imagery, EEG, wave atom transform, k-NN.

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Authors: Oyelami M. Olufemi

Abstract:

The menace of counterfeiting pharmaceuticals/drugs has become a major threat to consumers, healthcare providers, drug manufacturers and governments. It is a source of public health concern both in the developed and developing nations. Several solutions for detecting and authenticating counterfeit drugs have been adopted by different nations of the world. In this article, a dialogue system-based drug counterfeiting detection system was developed and the results of the user satisfaction and acceptability of the system are presented. The results show that the users were satisfied with the system and the system was widely accepted as a means of fighting counterfeited drugs.

Keywords: Counterfeiting, dialogue system, drugs, voice application.

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Authors: S. Hajeb, M. Javadi, S. M. Hashemi, P. Parvizi

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Road Traffic Accidents are a major cause of disability and death throughout the world. The control of intelligent vehicles in order to reduce human error and boost ease congestion is not accomplished solely by the aid of human resources. The present article is an attempt to introduce an intelligent control system based on RFID technology. By the help of RFID technology, vehicles are connected to computerized systems, intelligent light poles and other available hardware along the way. In this project, intelligent control system is capable of tracking all vehicles, crisis management and control, traffic guidance and recording Driving offences along the highway.

Keywords: RFID, Intelligent highway, Traffic violation

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Authors: Cherry Dhiman, Ayushi Paliwal, Mohd. Shahid Khan, M. N. Reddy, Vinay Gupta, Monika Tomar

Abstract:

The laser based high resolution spectroscopic experimental techniques such as Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS), Rotating Disk Electrode Optical Emission spectroscopy (RDE-OES) and Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR) have been used for the study of composition and degradation analysis of used engine oils. Engine oils are mainly composed of aliphatic and aromatics compounds and its soot contains hazardous components in the form of fine, coarse and ultrafine particles consisting of wear metal elements. Such coarse particulates matter (PM) and toxic elements are extremely dangerous for human health that can cause respiratory and genetic disorder in humans. The combustible soot from thermal power plants, industry, aircrafts, ships and vehicles can lead to the environmental and climate destabilization. It contributes towards global pollution for land, water, air and global warming for environment. The detection of such toxicants in the form of elemental analysis is a very serious issue for the waste material management of various organic, inorganic hydrocarbons and radioactive waste elements. In view of such important points, the current study on used engine oils was performed. The fundamental characterization of engine oils was conducted by measuring water content and kinematic viscosity test that proves the crude analysis of the degradation of used engine oils samples. The microscopic quantitative and qualitative analysis was presented by RDE-OES technique which confirms the presence of elemental impurities of Pb, Al, Cu, Si, Fe, Cr, Na and Ba lines for used waste engine oil samples in few ppm. The presence of such elemental impurities was confirmed by LIBS spectral analysis at various transition levels of atomic line. The recorded transition line of Pb confirms the maximum degradation which was found in used engine oil sample no. 3 and 4. Apart from the basic tests, the calculations for dielectric constants and refractive index of the engine oils were performed via SPR analysis.

Keywords: Laser induced breakdown spectroscopy, rotating disk electrode optical emission spectroscopy, surface plasmon resonance, ICCD spectrometer, Nd:YAG laser, engine oil.

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Authors: M. V. Sudhamani, C. R. Venugopal

Abstract:

Content-based Image Retrieval (CBIR) aims at searching image databases for specific images that are similar to a given query image based on matching of features derived from the image content. This paper focuses on a low-dimensional color based indexing technique for achieving efficient and effective retrieval performance. In our approach, the color features are extracted using the mean shift algorithm, a robust clustering technique. Then the cluster (region) mode is used as representative of the image in 3-D color space. The feature descriptor consists of the representative color of a region and is indexed using a spatial indexing method that uses *R -tree thus avoiding the high-dimensional indexing problems associated with the traditional color histogram. Alternatively, the images in the database are clustered based on region feature similarity using Euclidian distance. Only representative (centroids) features of these clusters are indexed using *R -tree thus improving the efficiency. For similarity retrieval, each representative color in the query image or region is used independently to find regions containing that color. The results of these methods are compared. A JAVA based query engine supporting query-by- example is built to retrieve images by color.

Keywords: Content-based, indexing, cluster, region.

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Authors: Young-Jae Kim, Young-Hwan You

Abstract:

This paper presents a integer frequency offset (IFO) estimation scheme for the 3GPP long term evolution (LTE) downlink system. Firstly, the conventional joint detection method for IFO and sector cell index (CID) information is introduced. Secondly, an IFO estimation without explicit sector CID information is proposed, which can operate jointly with the proposed IFO estimation and reduce the time delay in comparison with the conventional joint method. Also, the proposed method is computationally efficient and has almost similar performance in comparison with the conventional method over the Pedestrian and Vehicular channel models.

Keywords: LTE, OFDMA, primary synchronization signal (PSS), IFO, CID

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Authors: Jafreezal Jaafar, Hasiah Mohamed, Hazida Razali

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This paper focuses on the 3D reconstruction of the architectural design of Darul Ridzuan Museum. It has concentrated on designing exterior part of the building according to colored digital photo of the real museum. Besides viewing the architecture, walkthroughs are generated for the user to control it in an easier way. User can travel through the museum to get the feel of the environment and to explore the design of the museum as a whole; both exterior and interior. The result has shown positive result in terms of realism, navigation, collision detection, suitability, usability and user-s acceptance. In brief, the 3D virtual museum has provided an alternative to present a real museum.

Keywords: Virtual Heritage, 3D Modelling, Virtual Museum, Usability Evaluation

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Authors: S. Forkapic, J. Nikolov, N. Todorovic, D. Mrdja, I. Bikit

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Tritium activity concentration in Danube river water in Serbia has been determinate using a liquid scintillation counter Quantulus 1220. During December 2010, water samples were taken along the entire course of Danube through Serbia, from Hungarian- Serbian to Romanian-Serbian border. This investigation is very important because of the nearness of nuclear reactor Paks in Hungary. Sample preparation was performed by standard test method using Optiphase HiSafe 3 scintillation cocktail. We used a rapid method for the preparation of environmental samples, without electrolytic enrichment.

Keywords: detection limit, liquid scintillation counter, low-leveltritium analysis, monitoring.

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Authors: A. Starczewska, A. Nawrat, K. Daniec, J. Homa, K. Hołda

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Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) is the main routing protocol that enables routing establishment between all autonomous systems, which are the basic administrative units of the internet. Due to the poor protection of BGP, it is important to use additional BGP security systems. Many solutions to this problem have been proposed over the years, but none of them have been implemented on a global scale. This article describes a system capable of building images of real-time BGP network topology in order to detect BGP anomalies. Our proposal performs a detailed analysis of BGP messages that come into local network cards supplemented by information collected by remote collectors in different localizations.

Keywords: Border Gateway Protocol, BGP, BGP hijacking, cybersecurity, detection.

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Authors: Miloud Frikel , Boubekeur Targui, Francois Hamon, Mohammed M'SAAD

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In this paper we propose an enhanced equalization technique for multi-carrier code division multiple access (MC-CDMA). This method is based on the control of Equal Gain Combining (EGC) technique. Indeed, we introduce a new level changer to the EGC equalizer in order to adapt the equalization parameters to the channel coefficients. The optimal equalization level is, first, determined by channel training. The new approach reduces drastically the mutliuser interferences caused by interferes, without increasing the noise power. To compare the performances of the proposed equalizer, the theoretical analysis and numerical performances are given.

Keywords: MC-CDMA, Equalization, EGC, Single User Detection.

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Authors: Yi Feng, Jingwen Li, Lei Huang, Changping Liu

Abstract:

In this paper we proposed a novel method to acquire the ROI (Region of interest) of unsupervised and touch-less palmprint captured from a web camera in real-time. We use Viola-Jones approach and skin model to get the target area in real time. Then an innovative course-to-fine approach to detect the key points on the hand is described. A new algorithm is used to find the candidate key points coarsely and quickly. In finely stage, we verify the hand key points with the shape context descriptor. To make the user much comfortable, it can process the hand image with different poses, even the hand is closed. Experiments show promising result by using the proposed method in various conditions.

Keywords: Palmprint recoginition, hand detection, touch-lesspalmprint, ROI localization.

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Authors: Y. Bentoutou, A.M. Si Mohammed

Abstract:

This paper presents a review of an 8-year study on radiation effects in commercial memory devices operating within the main on-board computer system OBC386 of the Algerian microsatellite Alsat-1. A statistical analysis of single-event upset (SEU) and multiple-bit upset (MBU) activity in these commercial memories shows that the typical SEU rate at alsat-1's orbit is 4.04 × 10-7 SEU/bit/day, where 98.6% of these SEUs cause single-bit errors, 1.22% cause double-byte errors, and the remaining SEUs result in multiple-bit and severe errors.

Keywords: Radiation effects, error detection and correction, satellite computer, small satellite mission.

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Authors: Jinseon Song, Yongwan Park

Abstract:

In this paper, propose method that can user’s position that based on database is built from single camera. Previous positioning calculate distance by arrival-time of signal like GPS (Global Positioning System), RF(Radio Frequency). However, these previous method have weakness because these have large error range according to signal interference. Method for solution estimate position by camera sensor. But, signal camera is difficult to obtain relative position data and stereo camera is difficult to provide real-time position data because of a lot of image data, too. First of all, in this research we build image database at space that able to provide positioning service with single camera. Next, we judge similarity through image matching of database image and transmission image from user. Finally, we decide position of user through position of most similar database image. For verification of propose method, we experiment at real-environment like indoor and outdoor. Propose method is wide positioning range and this method can verify not only position of user but also direction.

Keywords: Positioning, Distance, Camera, Features, SURF (Speed-Up Robust Features), Database, Estimation.

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Authors: C. Wan, A. Mita

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel system for monitoring the health of underground pipelines. Some of these pipelines transport dangerous contents and any damage incurred might have catastrophic consequences. However, most of these damage are unintentional and usually a result of surrounding construction activities. In order to prevent these potential damages, monitoring systems are indispensable. This paper focuses on acoustically recognizing road cutters since they prelude most construction activities in modern cities. Acoustic recognition can be easily achieved by installing a distributed computing sensor network along the pipelines and using smart sensors to “listen" for potential threat; if there is a real threat, raise some form of alarm. For efficient pipeline monitoring, a novel monitoring approach is proposed. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was studied and applied. Eigenvalues were regarded as the special signature that could characterize a sound sample, and were thus used for the feature vector for sound recognition. The denoising ability of PCA could make it robust to noise interference. One class SVM was used for classifier. On-site experiment results show that the proposed PCA and SVM based acoustic recognition system will be very effective with a low tendency for raising false alarms.

Keywords: One class SVM, pipeline monitoring system, principal component analysis, sound recognition, third party damage.

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Authors: F. Guspi, E. García

Abstract:

This exploratory study gives an overview of the evolution of the main financial and performance indicators of the Academic Spin-Off’s and High Growth Academic Spin-Off’s in year 3 and year 6 after its creation in the region of Catalonia in Spain. The study compares and evaluates results of these different measures of performance and the degree of success of these companies for each University. We found that the average Catalonian Academic Spin-Off is small and have not achieved the sustainability stage at year 6. On the contrary, a small group of High Growth Academic Spin-Off’s exhibits robust performance with high profits in year 6. Our results support the need to increase selectivity and support for these companies especially near year 3, because are the ones that will bring wealth and employment. University role as an investor has rigid norms and habits that impede an efficient economic return from their ASO investment. Universities with high performance on sales and employment in year 3 not always could sustain this growth in year 6 because their ASO’s are not profitable. On the contrary, profitable ASO exhibit superior performance in all measurement indicators in year 6. We advocate the need of a balanced growth (with profits) as a way to obtain subsequent continuous growth.

Keywords: Academic Spin-Off (ASO), University Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurial University, high growth, New Technology Based Companies (NTBC), University Spin-Off.

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Authors: Jaibir Sharma, Lee JaeWung, Merugu Srinivas, Navab Singh

Abstract:

This paper presents thermal annealing de-wetting technique for the preparation of porous metal membrane for Thin Film Encapsulation (TFE) application. Thermal annealing de-wetting experimental results reveal that pore size formation in porous metal membrane depend upon i.e. 1. The substrate at which metal is deposited, 2. Melting point of metal used for porous metal cap layer membrane formation, 3. Thickness of metal used for cap layer, 4. Temperature used for formation of porous metal membrane. In order to demonstrate this technique, Silver (Ag) was used as a metal for preparation of porous metal membrane on amorphous silicon (a-Si) and silicon oxide. The annealing of the silver thin film of various thicknesses was performed at different temperature. Pores in porous silver film were analyzed using Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). In order to check the usefulness of porous metal film for TFE application, the porous silver film prepared on amorphous silicon (a- Si) and silicon oxide was released using XeF2 and VHF, respectively. Finally, guide line and structures are suggested to use this porous membrane for robust TFE application.

Keywords: De-wetting, thermal annealing, metal, melting point, porous.

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Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

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The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.

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