Search results for: Human Factor.

Authors: F. Maamar, M. Sartor

Abstract:

The present study focuses on methods allowing a convenient and quick calculation of the SIFs in order to predict the static adhesive strength of bonded joints. A new SIF calculation method is proposed, based on the stresses obtained from a FE model at a reference point located in the adhesive layer at equal distance of the free-edge and of the two interfaces. It is shown that, even limiting ourselves to the two main modes, i.e. the opening and the shearing modes, and using the values of the stresses resulting from a low detailed FE model, an efficient calculation of the peeling stress at adhesive-substrate corners can be obtained by this way. The proposed method is interesting in that it can be the basis of a prediction tool that will allow the designer to quickly evaluate the SIFs characterizing a particular application without developing a detailed analysis.

Keywords: Adhesive layer, bounded joints, free-edge corner, stress intensity factor.

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Authors: S. P. Yeong, L. M. King, S. S. Dol

Abstract:

There have been rigorous research and development of unmanned aerial vehicles in the field of search and rescue (SAR) operation recently. UAVs reduce unnecessary human risks while assisting rescue efforts through aerial imagery, topographic mapping and emergency delivery. The application of UAVs in offshore and nearshore marine SAR missions is discussed in this paper. Projects that integrate UAV technology into their systems are introduced to highlight the great advantages and capabilities of UAVs. Scenarios where UAVs could provide invaluable assistance are also suggested.

Keywords: Marine SAR, nearshore, offshore, search and rescue, UAS, UAV.

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Authors: S. Chee Choy, Pauline Swee Choo Goh, Yow Lin Liew

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the English version and a Malay translation of the 21-item Learner Awareness Questionnaire for its application to assess student learning in higher education. The Learner Awareness Questionnaire, originally written in English, is a quantitative measure of how and why students learn. The questionnaire gives an indication of the process and motives to learn using four scales: survival, establishing stability, approval and loving to learn. Data in the present study came from 680 university students enrolled in various programmes in Malaysia. The Malay version of the questionnaire supported a similar four factor structure and internal consistency to the English version. The four factors of the Malay version also showed moderate to strong correlations with those of the English versions. The results suggest that the Malay version of the questionnaire is similar to the English version. However, further refinement to the questions is needed to strengthen the correlations between the two questionnaires.

Keywords: Student learning, learner awareness, instrument validation.

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Authors: A. Arya, R. Laha, V. R. Dantham

Abstract:

We report the enhancement of Raman scattering signal by one order of magnitude using photonic nanojet (PNJ) of a lollipop shaped dielectric microstructure (LSDM) fabricated by a pulsed CO₂ laser. Here, the PNJ is generated by illuminating sphere portion of the LSDM with non-resonant laser. Unlike the surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) technique, this technique is simple, and the obtained results are highly reproducible. In addition, an efficient technique is proposed to enhance the SERS signal with the help of high quality factor optical resonance (whispering gallery mode) of a LSDM. From the theoretical simulations, it has been found that at least an order of magnitude enhancement in the SERS signal could be achieved easily using the proposed technique. We strongly believe that this report will enable the research community for improving the Raman scattering signals.

Keywords: Localized surface plasmons, photonic nanojet, SERS, whispering gallery mode.

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Authors: C.C. Chen, C.C. Wei, S.H. Chen, S.J. Hsieh, W.G. Diau

Abstract:

This paper aims to scale up Dye-sensitized Solar Cell (DSSC) production using a commonly available industrial material – stainless steel - and industrial plasma equipment. A working DSSC electrode formed by (1) coating titania nanotube (TiO2 NT) film on 304 stainless steel substrate using a plasma spray technique; then, (2) filling the nano-pores of the TiO2 NT film using a TiF4 sol-gel method. A DSSC device consists of an anode absorbed photosensitive dye (N3), a transparent conductive cathode with platinum (Pt) nano-catalytic particles adhered to its surface, and an electrolytic solution sealed between the anode and the transparent conductive cathode. The photo-current conversion efficiency of the DSSC sample was tested under an AM 1.5 Solar Simulator. The sample has a short current (Isc) of 0.83 mA cm-2, open voltage (Voc) of 0.81V, filling factor (FF) of 0.52, and conversion efficiency (η) of 2.18% on a 0.16 cm2 DSSC work-piece.

Keywords: DSSC, Spray, stainless steel, TiO2 NT, efficiency

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Authors: Kyaw Myo Lin, Pyone Lai Swe, Khine Zin Oo

Abstract:

In this paper, an approach combining analytical method for the distributed generator (DG) sizing and meta-heuristic search for the optimal location of DG has been presented. The optimal size of DG on each bus is estimated by the loss sensitivity factor method while the optimal sites are determined by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) based optimal reactive power dispatch for minimizing active power loss. To confirm the proposed approach, it has been tested on IEEE-30 bus test system. The adjustments of operating constraints and voltage profile improvements have also been observed. The obtained results show that the allocation of DGs results in a significant loss reduction with good voltage profiles and the combined approach is competent in keeping the system voltages within the acceptable limits.

Keywords: Analytical approach, distributed generations, optimal size, optimal location, optimal reactive power dispatch, particle swarm optimization algorithm.

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Authors: Ali N. Siyal, Saima Q. Memon, Latif Elçi, Aydan Elçi

Abstract:

Polystyrene (PS) was extracted from Styrofoam (expanded polystyrene foam) waste, so called white pollutant. The PS was functionalized with N,N- Bis(2-aminobenzylidene)benzene-1,2-diamine (ABA) ligand through an azo spacer. The resin was characterized by FT-IR spectroscopy and elemental analysis. The PS-N=N-ABA resin was used for the enrichment and speciation of Cr(III)/Cr(VI) ions and total Cr determination in aqueous samples by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS). The separation of Cr(III)/Cr(VI) ions was achieved at pH 2. The recovery of Cr(VI) ions was achieved ≥ 95.0% at optimum parameters: pH 2; resin amount 300mg; flow rates 2.0mL min^-1 of solution and 2.0mL min^-1 of eluent (2.0mol L^-1 HNO₃). Total Cr was determined by oxidation of Cr(III) to Cr(VI) ions using H₂O₂. The limit of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) of Cr(VI) were found to be 0.40 and 1.20μg L^-1, respectively with preconcentration factor of 250. Total saturation and breakthrough capacitates of the resin for Cr(IV) ions were found to be 0.181 and 0.531mmol g^-1, respectively. The proposed method was successfully applied for the preconcentration/speciation of Cr(III)/Cr(VI) ions and determination of total Cr in industrial effluents.

Keywords: Styrofoam waste, Polymeric resin, Preconcentration, Speciation, Cr(III)/Cr(VI) ions, FAAS.

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Authors: Ali Dehgan Moroozeh, B. Farhadi Bansouleh

Abstract:

Evapotranspiration is one of the most important components of the hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important variable in water and energy balances on the earth’s surface, and knowledge of the distribution of ET is a key factor in hydrology, climatology, agronomy and ecology studies. Many researchers have a valid relationship, which is a function of climate factors, to estimate the potential evapotranspiration presented to the plant water stress or water loss, prevent. The FAO-Penman method (PM) had been recommended as a standard method. This method requires many data and these data are not available in every area of world. So, other methods should be evaluated for these conditions. When sufficient or reliable data to solve the PM equation are not available then Hargreaves equation can be used. The Hargreaves equation (HG) requires only daily mean, maximum and minimum air temperature extraterrestrial radiation .In this study, Hargreaves method (HG) were evaluated in 12 stations in the North West region of Iran. Results of HG and M.HG methods were compared with results of PM method. Statistical analysis of this comparison showed that calibration process has had significant effect on efficiency of Hargreaves method.

Keywords: Evapotranspiration, Hargreaves equation, FAOPenman method.

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Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that “fattailedness” alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.

Keywords: Extreme Value theory, Financial Crisis 2008, Frontier Markets, Value at Risk.

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Authors: Yuwaraj M. Ghugal, Ajay G. Dahake

Abstract:

A trigonometric shear deformation theory for flexure of thick beams, taking into account transverse shear deformation effects, is developed. The number of variables in the present theory is same as that in the first order shear deformation theory. The sinusoidal function is used in displacement field in terms of thickness coordinate to represent the shear deformation effects. The noteworthy feature of this theory is that the transverse shear stresses can be obtained directly from the use of constitutive relations with excellent accuracy, satisfying the shear stress free conditions on the top and bottom surfaces of the beam. Hence, the theory obviates the need of shear correction factor. Governing differential equations and boundary conditions are obtained by using the principle of virtual work. The thick cantilever isotropic beams are considered for the numerical studies to demonstrate the efficiency of the. Results obtained are discussed critically with those of other theories.

Keywords: Trigonometric shear deformation, thick beam, flexure, principle of virtual work, equilibrium equations, stress.

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Authors: Zoheir Tir, Rachid Abdessemed

Abstract:

This paper presents a new control scheme to control a brushless doubly fed induction generator (BDFIG) using back-to-back PWM converters for wind power generation. The proposed control scheme is a New Self-Tuning Fuzzy Proportional-Derivative Controller (NSTFPDC). The goal of BDFIG control is to achieve a similar dynamic performance to the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), exploiting the well-known induction machine vector control philosophy. The performance of NSTFPDC controller has been investigated and compared with the two controllers, called Proportional–Integral (PI) and PD-like Fuzzy Logic controller (PD-like FLC) based BDFIG. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and the robustness of the NSTFPDC controller.

Keywords: Brushless Doubly Fed Induction Generator (BDFIG), PI controller, PD-like Fuzzy Logic controller, New Self-Tuning Fuzzy Proportional-Derivative Controller (NSTFPDC), Scaling factor, back-to-back PWM converters, wind energy system.

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Authors: Sedigheh Zarei

Abstract:

The aim of this research is to identify the key factors in shipping company’s port selection in order to providing their requirement. To identify and rank factors that play the main role in selecting port for providing the ship requirement, at the first step, data were collected via Semi-structured interviews, the aim was to generate knowledge on how shipping company select the port and suppliers for providing their needs. 37 port selection factors were chosen from the previous researches and field interviews and have been categorized into two groups of port's factor and the factors of services of suppliers companies. The current study adopts a questionnaire survey to the main shipping companies' operators in Iran. Their responses reveal that level of services of supplying companies and customs rules play the important role in selecting the ports. Our findings could affect decisions made by port authorities to consider that supporting the privet sections for ship chandelling business could have the best result in attracting ships.

Keywords: Port selection, ship supplier, ship chandler, provision.

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Authors: R. B. Mishra

Abstract:

Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been used in prediction and determination of states that generate different neural activations as well as mental working conditions. This paper addresses two applications of HMM; one to determine the optimal sequence of states for two neural states: Active (AC) and Inactive (IA) for the three emission (observations) which are for No Working (NW), Waiting (WT) and Working (W) conditions of human beings. Another is for the determination of optimal sequence of intentionality i.e. Believe (B), Desire (D), and Intention (I) as the states and three observational sequences: NW, WT and W. The computational results are encouraging and useful.

Keywords: BDI, HMM, neural activation, optimal states, working conditions.

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Authors: Rossella Arcucci, Luisa D’Amore, Simone Celestino, Giuseppe Scotti, Giuliano Laccetti

Abstract:

This work is the first dowel in a rather wide research activity in collaboration with Euro Mediterranean Center for Climate Changes, aimed at introducing scalable approaches in Ocean Circulation Models. We discuss designing and implementation of a parallel algorithm for solving the Variational Data Assimilation (DA) problem on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). The algorithm is based on the fully scalable 3DVar DA model, previously proposed by the authors, which uses a Domain Decomposition approach (we refer to this model as the DD-DA model). We proceed with an incremental porting process consisting of 3 distinct stages: requirements and source code analysis, incremental development of CUDA kernels, testing and optimization. Experiments confirm the theoretic performance analysis based on the so-called scale up factor demonstrating that the DD-DA model can be suitably mapped on GPU architectures.

Keywords: Data Assimilation, Parallel Algorithm, GPU architectures, Ocean Models.

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Authors: Ran Bernstein, Tal Shafir, Rachelle Tsachor, Karen Studd, Assaf Schuster

Abstract:

Laban Movement Analysis (LMA), developed in the dance community over the past seventy years, is an effective method for observing, describing, notating, and interpreting human movement to enhance communication and expression in everyday and professional life. Many applications that use motion capture data might be significantly leveraged if the Laban qualities will be recognized automatically. This paper presents an automated recognition method of Laban qualities from motion capture skeletal recordings and it is demonstrated on the output of Microsoft’s Kinect V2 sensor.

Keywords: Laban Movement Analysis, Kinect, Machine Learning.

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Authors: František Mošna

Abstract:

E-learning has become an efficient and widespread means of education at all levels of human activities. Statistics is no exception. Unfortunately the main focus in statistics teaching is usually paid to the substitution in formulas. Suitable websites can simplify and automate calculations and provide more attention and time to the basic principles of statistics, mathematization of real-life situations and following interpretation of results. We now introduce our own web-site for hypothesis testing. Its didactic aspects, the technical possibilities of the individual tools, the experience of use and the advantages or disadvantages are discussed in this paper. This web-site is not a substitute for common statistical software but should significantly improve the teaching of statistics at universities.

Keywords: E-learning, hypothesis testing, PHP, websites.

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Authors: M. D. Prokhorov, V. I. Ponomarenko, A. S. Karavaev, A. R. Kiselev, V. I. Gridnev

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Synchronization between the slow oscillations of heart rate and blood pressure having in humans a basic frequency close to 0.1 Hz is investigated. A method is proposed for quantitative estimation of synchronization between these oscillating processes based on calculation of relative time of phase synchronization of oscillations. It is shown that healthy subjects exhibit in average substantially longer epochs of synchronization between the slow oscillations in heart rate and blood pressure than patients after acute myocardial infarction

Keywords: Cardiovascular system, slow oscillating processes, synchronization.

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Authors: Ngo Thanh Xuan, Mai Thi Hang, Vu Nguyen Thanh

Abstract:

A. niger XP isolated from Vietnam produces very low amount of acidic phytase with optimal pH at 2.5 and 5.5. The phytase production of this strain was successfully improved through gene cloning and expression. A 1.4 - kb DNA fragment containing the coding region of the phyA gene was amplified by PCR and inserted into the expression vector pPICZαA with a signal peptide α- factor, under the control of AOX1 promoter. The recombined plasmid was transformed into the host strain P. pastoris KM71H and X33 by electroporation. Both host strains could efficiently express and secret phytase. The multicopy strains were screened for over expression of phytase. All the selected multicopy strains of P. pastoris X33 were examined for phytase activity, the maximum phytase yield of 1329 IU/ml was obtained after 4 days of incubation in medium BMM. The recombinant protein with MW of 97.4 KW showed to be the only one protein secreted in the culture broth. Multicopy transformant P. pastoris X33 supposed to be potential candidate for producing the commercial preparation of phytase.

Keywords: Aspergillus niger XP, cloning, over expression, Pichia pastoris, phyA , phytase.

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Authors: M. Soyaslan, A. Fenercioglu, C. Kozkurt

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Automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS) become frequently used systems in warehouses. There has been a transition from human based forklift applications to fast and safe AS/RS applications in firm-s warehouse systems. In this study, basic components and automation systems of the AS/RS are examined. Proposed system's automation components and their tasks in the system control algorithm were stated. According to this control algorithm the control system structure was obtained.

Keywords: AS/RS, Automatic Storage and Retrieval System, Warehouse Control System

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Authors: N. W. U. D. Chathurani, Shlomo Geva, Vinod Chandran, Proboda Rajapaksha

Abstract:

Selecting an appropriate image representation is the most important factor in implementing an effective Content-Based Image Retrieval (CBIR) system. This paper presents a multi-feature fusion approach for efficient CBIR, based on the distance distribution of features and relative feature weights at the time of query processing. It is a simple yet effective approach, which is free from the effect of features' dimensions, ranges, internal feature normalization and the distance measure. This approach can easily be adopted in any feature combination to improve retrieval quality. The proposed approach is empirically evaluated using two benchmark datasets for image classification (a subset of the Corel dataset and Oliva and Torralba) and compared with existing approaches. The performance of the proposed approach is confirmed with the significantly improved performance in comparison with the independently evaluated baseline of the previously proposed feature fusion approaches.

Keywords: Feature fusion, image retrieval, membership function, normalization.

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Authors: A. Bobirca, A. Draghici

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to construct a creativity composite index designed to capture the growing role of creativity in driving economic and social development for the 27 European Union countries. The paper proposes a new approach for the measurement of EU-27 creative potential and for determining its capacity to attract and develop creative human capital. We apply a modified version of the 3T model developed by Richard Florida and Irene Tinagli for constructing a Euro-Creativity Index. The resulting indexes establish a quantitative base for policy makers, supporting their efforts to determine the contribution of creativity to economic development.

Keywords: European Creativity Index, talent, technology, tolerance

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

Abstract:

This study examined the mental health and behavioral problems in early adolescence with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose of the study was stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 1975 participants. Multiple regression models and hierarchical regression models were applied to examine the relations between the background variables and internalizing problems, and the ones between students’ performance and internalizing problems. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict the anxious/depressed problem; reading and social study scores could significantly predict the anxious/depressed problem. However the class as a hierarchical macro factor did not indicate the significant effect. In brief, the majority of these models represented that the background variables, behaviors and academic performance were significantly related to the anxious/depressed problem.

Keywords: Behavioral problems, anxious/depression problems, empirical-based assessment, hierarchical modeling.

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Authors: Hyung T. Kwak, Jun Gao, Yao An, Alfred Kleinhammes, Yue Wu

Abstract:

Surface wettability is a crucial factor in oil recovery. In oil industry, the rock wettability involves the interplay between water, oil, and solid surface. Therefore, studying the interplay between adsorptions of water and hydrocarbon molecules on solid surface would be very informative for understanding rock wettability. Here we use the in-situ Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) gas isotherm technique to study competitive adsorptions of water and isopropanol, an intermediate step from hydrocarbons. This in-situ NMR technique obtains information on thermodynamic properties such as the isotherm, molecular dynamics via spin relaxation measurements, and adsorption kinetics such as how fast the system can reach thermal equilibrium after changes of vapor pressures. Using surfaces of silica glass beads, which can be modified from hydrophilic to hydrophobic, we obtained information on the influence of surface hydrophilicity on the state of surface water via obtained thermodynamic and dynamic properties.

Keywords: Competitive adsorption, nuclear magnetic resonance, wettability.

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Authors: Bilel Gassara, Mahmoud Abdellaoui, Nouri Masmoud

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The 4G front-end transceiver needs a high performance which can be obtained mainly with an optimal architecture and a multi-band Local Oscillator. In this study, we proposed and presented a new architecture of multi-band frequency synthesizer based on an Inverse Sine Phase Detector Phase Locked Loop (ISPD PLL) without any filters and any controlled gain block and associated with adapted multi band LC tuned VCO using a several numeric controlled capacitive branches but not binary weighted. The proposed architecture, based on 0.35μm CMOS process technology, supporting Multi-band GSM/DCS/DECT/ UMTS/WiMax application and gives a good performances: a phase noise @1MHz -127dBc and a Factor Of Merit (FOM) @ 1MHz - 186dB and a wide band frequency range (from 0.83GHz to 3.5GHz), that make the proposed architecture amenable for monolithic integration and 4G multi-band application.

Keywords: GSM/DCS/DECT/UMTS/WiMax, ISPD PLL, keep and capture range, Multi-Band, Synthesizer, Wireless.

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Authors: Rasha A. Abdullah, Mohammed. A. Razooqi, Adwan N. H. Al-Ajili

Abstract:

A SnO2/CdS/CdTe heterojunction was fabricated by thermal evaporation technique. The fabricated cells were annealed at 573K for periods of 60, 120 and 180 minutes. The structural properties of the solar cells have been studied by using X-ray diffraction. Capacitance- voltage measurements were studied for the as-prepared and annealed cells at a frequency of 102 Hz. The capacitance- voltage measurements indicated that these cells are abrupt. The capacitance decreases with increasing annealing time. The zero bias depletion region width and the carrier concentration increased with increasing annealing time. The carrier transport mechanism for the CdS/CdTe heterojunction in dark is tunneling recombination. The ideality factor is 1.56 and the reverse bias saturation current is 9.6×10-10A. The energy band lineup for the n- CdS/p-CdTe heterojunction was investigated using current - voltage and capacitance - voltage characteristics.

Keywords: SnO2/CdS/CdTe heterojunction, XRD, C-V measurement, I-V measurement, energy band diagram.

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Authors: Mustafa A. Al-Refai

Abstract:

This paper presents the optimal design and simulation of a grid-connected Photovoltaic (PV) system to supply electric power to meet the energy demand by Electrical Department in University of Tripoli Libya. Solar radiation is the key factor determining electricity produced by photovoltaic (PV) systems. This paper is designed to develop a novel method to calculate the solar photovoltaic generation capacity on the basis of Mean Global Solar Radiation data available for Tripoli Libya and finally develop a system design of possible plant capacity for the available roof area. MatLab/Simulink Programming tools and monthly average solar radiation data are used for this design and simulation. The specifications of equipments are provided based on the availability of the components in the market. Simulation results and analyses are presented to validate the proposed system configuration.

Keywords: Photovoltaic (PV), solar energy, solar irradiation, Simulink.

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Authors: Wen Liu

Abstract:

With the rapid progress of modern cities, the railway construction must be developing quickly in China.As a typical high-density country, shopping center on the subway should be one important factor during the process of urban development. The paper discusses the influence of the layout of shopping center on the subway, and put it in the time and space’s axis of Shanghai urban development. We usethe digital technology to establish the database of relevant information. And then get the change role about shopping center on subway in Shanghaiby the Kernel density estimate.The result shows the development of shopping center on subway has a relationship with local economic strength, population size, policysupport, and city construction. And the suburbanization trend of shopping center would be increasingly significant.By this case research, we could see the Kernel density estimate is an efficient analysis method on the spatial layout. It could reveal the characters of layout form of shopping center on subway in essence. And it can also be applied to the other research of space form.

Keywords: Shanghai, Shopping center on the subway, Layout form, The Kernel density estimate.

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Authors: Mohammad Shoyaib, M. Abdullah-Al-Wadud, Oksam Chae

Abstract:

In this paper an effective approach for segmenting human skin regions in images taken at different environment is proposed. The proposed method uses a color distance map that is flexible enough to reliably detect the skin regions even if the illumination conditions of the image vary. Local image conditions is also focused, which help the technique to adaptively detect differently illuminated skin regions of an image. Moreover, usage of local information also helps the skin detection process to get rid of picking up much noisy pixels.

Keywords: Color Distance map, Reference skin color, Regiongrowing, Skin segmentation.

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Authors: Sharan Badiger, Prema T. Akkasaligar

Abstract:

Medical imaging technology has experienced a dramatic change in the last few years. Medical imaging refers to the techniques and processes used to create images of the human body (or parts thereof) for various clinical purposes such as medical procedures and diagnosis or medical science including the study of normal anatomy and function. With the growth of computers and image technology, medical imaging has greatly influenced the medical field. The diagnosis of a health problem is now highly dependent on the quality and the credibility of the image analysis. This paper deals with the various aspects and types of medical imaging.

Keywords: Computed Tomography, Echocardiography, Medical Imaging, Magnetic Resonance, Ultrasound Imaging.

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Authors: Michael A. Unbehauen, Gregory D. Sloan, Alberto J. Squatrito

Abstract:

Missile proliferation and global stability are intrinsically linked. Missile threats continually appear at the forefront of global security issues. North Korea’s recently demonstrated nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities, for the first time since the Cold War, renewed public interest in strategic missile defense capabilities. To protect from limited ICBM attacks from so-called rogue actors, the United States developed the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system. This study examines if the GMD missile defense shield has contributed to a safer world or triggered a new arms race. Based upon increased missile-related developments and the lack of adherence to international missile treaties, it is generally perceived that the GMD system is a destabilizing factor for global security. By examining the current state of arms control treaties as well as existing missile arsenals and ongoing efforts in technologies to overcome U.S. missile defenses, this study seeks to analyze the contribution of GMD to global stability. A thorough investigation cannot ignore that, through the establishment of this limited capability, the U.S. violated longstanding, successful weapons treaties and caused concern among states that possess ICBMs. GMD capability contributes to the perception that ICBM arsenals could become ineffective, creating an imbalance in favor of the United States, leading to increased global instability and tension. While blame for the deterioration of global stability and non-adherence to arms control treaties is often placed on U.S. missile defense, the facts do not necessarily support this view. The notion of a renewed arms race due to GMD is supported neither by current missile arsenals nor by the inevitable development of new and enhanced missile technology, to include multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles (MIRVs), maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs), and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). The methodology in this study encapsulates a period of time, pre- and post-GMD introduction, while analyzing international treaty adherence, missile counts and types, and research in new missile technologies. The decline in international treaty adherence, coupled with a measurable increase in the number and types of missiles or research in new missile technologies during the period after the introduction of GMD, could be perceived as a clear indicator of GMD contributing to global instability. However, research into improved technology (MIRV, MaRV and HGV) prior to GMD, as well as a decline of various global missile inventories and testing of systems during this same period, would seem to invalidate this theory. U.S. adversaries have exploited the perception of the U.S. missile defense shield as a destabilizing factor as a pretext to strengthen and modernize their militaries and justify their policies. As a result, it can be concluded that global stability has not significantly decreased due to GMD; but rather, the natural progression of technological and missile development would inherently include innovative and dynamic approaches to target engagement, deterrence, and national defense.

Keywords: Arms control, arms race, global security, GMD, ICBM, missile defense, proliferation.

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