Search results for: nonlinear time history analysis

Authors: Wang Yichen, Haruka Yamashita

Abstract:

In recent years, in the field of sports, decision making such as member in the game and strategy of the game based on then analysis of the accumulated sports data are widely attempted. In fact, in the NBA basketball league where the world's highest level players gather, to win the games, teams analyze the data using various statistical techniques. However, it is difficult to analyze the game data for each play such as the ball tracking or motion of the players in the game, because the situation of the game changes rapidly, and the structure of the data should be complicated. Therefore, it is considered that the analysis method for real time game play data is proposed. In this research, we propose an analytical model for "determining the optimal lineup composition" using the real time play data, which is considered to be difficult for all coaches. In this study, because replacing the entire lineup is too complicated, and the actual question for the replacement of players is "whether or not the lineup should be changed", and “whether or not Small Ball lineup is adopted”. Therefore, we propose an analytical model for the optimal player selection problem based on Small Ball lineups. In basketball, we can accumulate scoring data for each play, which indicates a player's contribution to the game, and the scoring data can be considered as a time series data. In order to compare the importance of players in different situations and lineups, we combine RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) model, which can analyze time series data, and NN (Neural Network) model, which can analyze the situation on the field, to build the prediction model of score. This model is capable to identify the current optimal lineup for different situations. In this research, we collected all the data of accumulated data of NBA from 2019-2020. Then we apply the method to the actual basketball play data to verify the reliability of the proposed model.

Keywords: Recurrent Neural Network, players lineup, basketball data, decision making model.

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Authors: Abolfazl Jalilvand, Mohammad Reza Feyzi, Sohrab Khanmohammad, Mohammad Bagher Bana Sharifian, Ali Sajjadi

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Nowadays the control of stator voltage at a constant frequency is one of the traditional and low expense methods in order to control the speed of induction motors near its nominal speed. The torque of induction motor is a nonlinear function of the firing angle, phase angle and speed. In this paper the speed control of induction motor regarding various load torque and under different conditions will be investigated based on a fuzzy controller with inverse training.

Keywords: Three phase induction motor, AC converter, speedcontrol, fuzzy control.

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Authors: Yin-Ching Keung, Kit-Lun Yick

Abstract:

The issue of bra fitting has persisted throughout history despite advancements in molded bra cups. To gain a deeper understanding of the interaction between the breast and bra pattern, this study combines the art of traditional bra patternmaking with 3D body scanning technology. By employing a 2D bra pattern drafting method and analyzing the effect of body shape on the desired bra cup shape, the study focuses on the differentiation of the lower cup among bras designed for flat and round body-shaped breasts. The results shed light on the impact of body shape on bra fit and provide valuable insights for further research and improvements in bra design, pattern drafting, and fit. The integration of 3D body scanning technology enhances the accuracy and precision of measurements, allowing for a more comprehensive analysis of the unique contours and dimensions of the breast and body. Ultimately, the study aims to provide individuals with different body shapes a more comfortable and well-fitted bra-wearing experience, contributing to the ongoing efforts to alleviate the longstanding problem of bra fitting.

Keywords: Breast shapes, bra fitting, 3D body scanning, bra patternmaking.

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, A. Ehsani

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In this paper, the optimum weight and cost of a laminated composite plate is seeked, while it undergoes the heaviest load prior to a complete failure. Various failure criteria are defined for such structures in the literature. In this work, the Tsai-Hill theory is used as the failure criterion. The theory of analysis was based on the Classical Lamination Theory (CLT). A newly type of Genetic Algorithm (GA) as an optimization technique with a direct use of real variables was employed. Yet, since the optimization via GAs is a long process, and the major time is consumed through the analysis, Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFNN) was employed in predicting the output from the analysis. Thus, the process of optimization will be carried out through a hybrid neuro-GA environment, and the procedure will be carried out until a predicted optimum solution is achieved.

Keywords: Composite Laminates, GA, Multi-objectiveOptimisation, Neural Networks, RBFNN.

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Authors: Ayesha Sohail, Khadija Maqbool, Anila Asif, Haroon Ahmad

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These days, the field of tissue engineering is getting serious attention due to its usefulness. Bone tissue engineering helps to address and sort-out the critical sized and non-healing orthopedic problems by the creation of manmade bone tissue. We will design and validate an efficient numerical model, which will simulate the effective diffusivity in bone tissue engineering. Our numerical model will be based on the finite element analysis of the diffusion-reaction equations. It will have the ability to optimize the diffusivity, even at multi-scale, with the variation of time. It will also have a special feature “parametric sweep”, with which we will be able to predict the oxygen, glucose and cell density dynamics, more accurately. We will fix these problems by modifying the governing equations, by selecting appropriate spatio-temporal finite element schemes and by transient analysis.

Keywords: Bone tissue engineering, Transient Analysis, Scaffolds, fabrication techniques.

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Authors: K. Jayakumar, S. Thangavel

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In this paper proposed the effective fault detection of industrial drives by using Biorthogonal Posterior Vibration Signal-Data Probabilistic Wavelet Neural Network (BPPVS-WNN) system. This system was focused to reducing the current flow and to identify faults with lesser execution time with harmonic values obtained through fifth derivative. Initially, the construction of Biorthogonal vibration signal-data based wavelet transform in BPPVS-WNN system localizes the time and frequency domain. The Biorthogonal wavelet approximates the broken bearing using double scaling and factor, identifies the transient disturbance due to fault on induction motor through approximate coefficients and detailed coefficient. Posterior Probabilistic Neural Network detects the final level of faults using the detailed coefficient till fifth derivative and the results obtained through it at a faster rate at constant frequency signal on the industrial drive. Experiment through the Simulink tool detects the healthy and unhealthy motor on measuring parametric factors such as fault detection rate based on time, current flow rate, and execution time.

Keywords: Biorthogonal Wavelet Transform, Posterior Probabilistic Neural Network, Induction Motor.

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Authors: M.B. Aryanezhad, J. Aliabadi

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This paper considers the integration of assembly operations and product structure to Cellular Manufacturing System (CMS) design so that to correct the drawbacks of previous researches in the literature. For this purpose, a new mathematical model is developed which dedicates machining and assembly operations to manufacturing cells while the objective function is to minimize the intercellular movements resulting due to both of them. A linearization method is applied to achieve optimum solution through solving aforementioned nonlinear model by common programming language such as Lingo. Then, using different examples and comparing the results, the importance of integrating assembly considerations is demonstrated.

Keywords: Assembly operations and Product structure, CellFormation, Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Z. Saidi, A.O. Boudraa, J.C. Cexus, S. Bourennane

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In this paper, a new time-delay estimation technique based on the cross IB-energy operator [5] is introduced. This quadratic energy detector measures how much a signal is present in another one. The location of the peak of the energy operator, corresponding to the maximum of interaction between the two signals, is the estimate of the delay. The method is a fully data-driven approach. The discrete version of the continuous-time form of the cross IBenergy operator, for its implementation, is presented. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on real underwater acoustic signals arriving from targets and the results compared to the cross-correlation method.

Keywords: Teager-Kaiser energy operator, Cross-energyoperator, Time-Delay, Underwater acoustic signals.

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Authors: M. Mousavi-Daramoroudi, H. Yousefnia, F. Abbasi-Davani, S. Zolghadri

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In this study, ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC was prepared under optimized conditions (radiochemical purity: > 99%, radionuclidic purity: > 99%). The percentage of injected dose per gram (%ID/g) was calculated for organs up to 168 h post injection. Compartmental model was applied to mathematical description of the drug behaviour in tissue at different times. The biodistribution data showed the significant excretion of the radioactivity from the kidneys. The adrenal and pancreas, as major expression sites for somatostatin receptor (SSTR), had significant uptake. A pharmacokinetic model of ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC was presented by compartmental analysis which demonstrates the behavior of the complex.

Keywords: Biodistribution, compartmental modeling, 177Lu, octreotide.

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Authors: Reza Nadimi, Fariborz Jolai

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This article combines two techniques: data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Factor analysis (FA) to data reduction in decision making units (DMU). Data envelopment analysis (DEA), a popular linear programming technique is useful to rate comparatively operational efficiency of decision making units (DMU) based on their deterministic (not necessarily stochastic) input–output data and factor analysis techniques, have been proposed as data reduction and classification technique, which can be applied in data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique for reduction input – output data. Numerical results reveal that the new approach shows a good consistency in ranking with DEA.

Keywords: Effectiveness, Decision Making, Data EnvelopmentAnalysis, Factor Analysis

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Authors: Faisal Alazzaz, Andrew Whyte

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Off-site construction methods have played an important role in the construction sector in the past few decades. It is increasingly becoming a major alternative technique and strategic direction compared to traditional in-situ method. It produces a significant amount of value for the construction industry and the economy more generally. To date, an impressive number of studies have been lunched on the perceived perception of off-site construction. However, it seems that a quantifying benefit on the offsite construction area is lacking. Therefore, this paper examines the recent research literature on the benefits of off- site construction and provides future direction. In the beginning, this paper provides a brief history and current value of the off-site construction followed by a detailed discussion on the benefit of off-site construction. These benefits include but not limited to time saving, quality improvement, relieving skills shortages, cost reduction and productivity improvement. Toward this end, off-site construction should learn from other productive industry similar to services or manufacturing industry by applying operational management tools and techniques with extensive focus on employee empowerment will shed the light on future uptake of Off-site construction. This study is of value in providing scholars have a clear picture of perceived benefit of off-site construction research and give an opportunities for future uptake of off-site method.

Keywords: Building projects, Employer empowerment, Off-site construction benefits, Productivity.

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Authors: Aydin Azizi, Poorya Ghafoorpoor Yazdi

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This paper presents the review of the studies on the ergonomics, virtual reality, and work measurement (time study) at the industrial workstations because each of these three individual techniques can be used to improve the design of workstations and task position. The objective of this paper is to give an overall literature review that if there is any relation between these three different techniques. Therefore, it is so important to review the scientific studies to find a better and effective way for improving design of workstations. On the other hand, manufacturers found that instead of using one of the approaches, utilizing the combination of these individual techniques are more effective to reduce the cost and production time.

Keywords: Ergonomics, time study, virtual reality, workplace.

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Authors: MD Zaheer Ansari, A.K. Nirala

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In this study spatial-temporal speckle correlation techniques have been applied for the quality evaluation of three different Indian fruits namely apple, pear and tomato for the first time. The method is based on the analysis of variations of laser light scattered from biological samples. The results showed that crosscorrelation coefficients of biospeckle patterns change subject to their freshness and the storage conditions. The biospeckle activity was determined by means of the cross-correlation functions of the intensity fluctuations. Significant changes in biospeckle activity were observed during their shelf lives. From the study, it is found that the biospeckle activity decreases with the shelf-life storage time. Further it has been shown that biospeckle activity changes according to their respiration rates.

Keywords: Biospeckle, cross-correlation, respiration, shelf-life.

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Authors: Dr. L.K. Singh, Dr. R. M. L, Riktesh Srivastava

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How to efficiently assign system resource to route the Client demand by Gateway servers is a tricky predicament. In this paper, we tender an enhanced proposal for autonomous recital of Gateway servers under highly vibrant traffic loads. We devise a methodology to calculate Queue Length and Waiting Time utilizing Gateway Server information to reduce response time variance in presence of bursty traffic. The most widespread contemplation is performance, because Gateway Servers must offer cost-effective and high-availability services in the elongated period, thus they have to be scaled to meet the expected load. Performance measurements can be the base for performance modeling and prediction. With the help of performance models, the performance metrics (like buffer estimation, waiting time) can be determined at the development process. This paper describes the possible queue models those can be applied in the estimation of queue length to estimate the final value of the memory size. Both simulation and experimental studies using synthesized workloads and analysis of real-world Gateway Servers demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system.

Keywords: Gateway Server, G/M/1 Queuing Model.

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Authors: Mustafa Resa Becan

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The performance of a type of fuzzy sliding mode control is researched by considering the nonlinear characteristic of a missile-target interception problem to obtain a robust interception process. The variable boundary layer by using fuzzy logic is proposed to reduce the chattering around the switching surface then is applied to the interception model which was derived. The performances of the sliding mode control with constant and fuzzy boundary layer are compared at the end of the study and the results are evaluated.

Keywords: Sliding mode control, fuzzy, boundary layer, interception problem.

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Authors: Zohreh O. Akbari

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In this paper a deterministic polynomial-time algorithm is presented for the Clique problem. The case is considered as the problem of omitting the minimum number of vertices from the input graph so that none of the zeroes on the graph-s adjacency matrix (except the main diagonal entries) would remain on the adjacency matrix of the resulting subgraph. The existence of a deterministic polynomial-time algorithm for the Clique problem, as an NP-complete problem will prove the equality of P and NP complexity classes.

Keywords: Clique problem, Deterministic Polynomial-time Algorithm, Equality of P and NP Complexity Classes.

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Authors: Young-Seok Choi

Abstract:

This work proposes a data-driven multiscale based quantitative measures to reveal the underlying complexity of electroencephalogram (EEG), applying to a rodent model of hypoxic-ischemic brain injury and recovery. Motivated by that real EEG recording is nonlinear and non-stationary over different frequencies or scales, there is a need of more suitable approach over the conventional single scale based tools for analyzing the EEG data. Here, we present a new framework of complexity measures considering changing dynamics over multiple oscillatory scales. The proposed multiscale complexity is obtained by calculating entropies of the probability distributions of the intrinsic mode functions extracted by the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) of EEG. To quantify EEG recording of a rat model of hypoxic-ischemic brain injury following cardiac arrest, the multiscale version of Tsallis entropy is examined. To validate the proposed complexity measure, actual EEG recordings from rats (n=9) experiencing 7 min cardiac arrest followed by resuscitation were analyzed. Experimental results demonstrate that the use of the multiscale Tsallis entropy leads to better discrimination of the injury levels and improved correlations with the neurological deficit evaluation after 72 hours after cardiac arrest, thus suggesting an effective metric as a prognostic tool.

Keywords: Electroencephalogram (EEG), multiscale complexity, empirical mode decomposition, Tsallis entropy.

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Authors: A. Yacob, N. Hj. Ali, M. H. Yusoff, M. Y. MohdSaman, W. M. A. F. W. Hamzah

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Personalized learning becomes increasingly popular which not be restricted by time, place or any other barriers. This study proposes an analysis of Personalized Learning using Item Response Theory which considers course material difficulty and learner ability.The study investigates twenty undergraduate students at TATI University College, who are taking programming subject. By using the IRT,it was found that, finding the most appropriate problem levels to each student include high and low level test items together is not a problem. Thus, the student abilities can be asses more accurately and fairly. Learners who experience more anxiety will affect a heavier cognitive load and receive lower test scores.Instructors are encouraged to provide a supportive learning environment to enhance learning effectiveness because Cognitive Load Theory concerns the limited capacity of the brain to absorb new information.

Keywords: Analysis, Cognitive Load Theory, Item Response Theory, Learning, Motivation, Performance.

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Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Barta, Josef Navrátil

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Natural or human made disasters have a significant negative impact on the environment. At the same time there is an extensive effort to support management and decision making in emergency situations by information technologies. Therefore the purpose of the paper is to propose a design patterns applicable in emergency management, enabling better analysis and design of emergency management processes and therefore easier development and deployment of information systems in the field of emergency management. It will be achieved by detailed analysis of existing emergency management legislation, contingency plans and information systems. The result is a set of design patterns focused at emergency management processes that enable easier design of emergency plans or development of new information system. These results will have a major impact on the development of new information systems as well as to more effective and faster solving of emergencies.

Keywords: Analysis and Design, Business Process Modeling Notation, Contingency Plans, Design Patterns, Emergency Management.

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Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah, Ogunmodimu Dupe Catherine

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The relevance of geometric Brownian motion (GBM) in modelling the behaviour of stock market prices (SMP) cannot be over emphasized taking into consideration the volatility of the SMP. Consequently, there is need to investigate how GBM models are being estimated and used in financial market to predict SMP. To achieve this, the GBM estimation and its application to the SMP of some selected companies are studied. The normal and log-normal distributions were used to determine the expected value, variance and co-variance. Furthermore, the GBM model was used to predict the SMP of some selected companies over a period of time and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were calculated and used to determine the accuracy of the GBM model in predicting the SMP of the four companies under consideration. It was observed that for all the four companies, their MAPE values were within the region of acceptance. Also, the MAPE values of our data were compared to an existing literature to test the accuracy of our prediction with respect to time of investment. Finally, some numerical simulations of the graphs of the SMP, expectations and variance of the four companies over a period of time were presented using MATLAB programming software.

Keywords: Stock Market, Geometric Brownian Motion, normal and log-normal distribution, mean absolute percentage error.

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Authors: Najmeh Bolbolamiri, Maryam Setayesh Sanai, Ahmad Mirabadi

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This paper deals with condition monitoring of electric switch machine for railway points. Point machine, as a complex electro-mechanical device, switch the track between two alternative routes. There has been an increasing interest in railway safety and the optimal management of railway equipments maintenance, e.g. point machine, in order to enhance railway service quality and reduce system failure. This paper explores the development of Kolmogorov- Smirnov (K-S) test to detect some point failures (external to the machine, slide chairs, fixing, stretchers, etc), while the point machine (inside the machine) is in its proper condition. Time-domain stator Current signatures of normal (healthy) and faulty points are taken by 3 Hall Effect sensors and are analyzed by K-S test. The test is simulated by creating three types of such failures, namely putting a hard stone and a soft stone between stock rail and switch blades as obstacles and also slide chairs- friction. The test has been applied for those three faults which the results show that K-S test can effectively be developed for the aim of other point failures detection, which their current signatures deviate parametrically from the healthy current signature. K-S test as an analysis technique, assuming that any defect has a specific probability distribution. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) are used to differentiate these probability distributions. This test works based on the null hypothesis that ECDF of target distribution is statistically similar to ECDF of reference distribution. Therefore by comparing a given current signature (as target signal) from unknown switch state to a number of template signatures (as reference signal) from known switch states, it is possible to identify which is the most likely state of the point machine under analysis.

Keywords: stator currents monitoring, railway points, point failures, fault detection and diagnosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, time-domain analysis.

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Authors: Mohamed M. M. Elnasharty, Azhar M. Elwan

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Irradiation deposits energy through ionisation changing the bio-system’s net dipole, allowing the use of dielectric parameters and thermodynamic state functions related to these parameters as biophysical detectors to electrical inhomogeneity within the biosystem. This part is concerned with the effect of Moringa leaves extract, natural supplement, on the response of the biosystem to two different dose rates of irradiation. Having Hb molecule as a representative to the biosystem to be least invasive to the biosystem, dielectric measurements were used to extract the relaxation time of certain process found in the Hb spectrum within the indicated frequency window and the interrelated thermodynamic state functions were calculated from the deduced relaxation time. The results showed that relaxation time was decreased for both dose rates indicating a strong influence of Moringa on the response of biosystem and consequently Hb molecule. This influence was presented in the relaxation time and other parameters as well.

Keywords: Activation energy, DC conductivity, dielectric relaxation, enthalpy change, moringa leaves extract, relaxation time.

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Authors: Daniel Y. Abebe, Jaehyouk Choi

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The idea of adding metallic energy dissipaters to a structure to absorb a large part of the seismic energy began four decades ago. There are several types of metal-based devices conceived as dampers for the seismic energy absorber whereby damages to the major structural components could be minimized for both new and existing structures. This paper aimed to develop and evaluate structural performance of both stiffened and non stiffened circular shear panel damper for passive seismic energy protection by inelastic deformation. Structural evaluation was done using commercially available nonlinear FE simulation program. Diameter-to-thickness ratio is employed as main parameter to investigate the hysteresis performance of stiffened and unstiffened circular shear panel. Depending on these parameters three different buckling mode and hysteretic behavior was found: yielding prior to buckling without strength degradation, yielding prior to buckling with strength degradation and yielding with buckling and strength degradation which forms pinching at initial displacement. Hence, the hysteresis behavior is identified, specimens which deform without strength degradation so it will be used as passive energy dissipating device in civil engineering structures.

Keywords: Circular shear panel damper, FE analysis, Hysteretic behavior, Large deformation.

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Authors: Ameer A. Jebur, William Atherton, Rafid M. Alkhaddar, Edward Loffill

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Superstructures like offshore platforms, tall buildings, transition towers, skyscrapers and bridges are normally designed to resist compression, uplift and lateral forces from wind waves, negative skin friction, ship impact and other applied loads. Better understanding and the precise simulation of the response of batter piles under the action of independent uplift loads is a vital topic and an area of active research in the field of geotechnical engineering. This paper investigates the use of finite element code (FEC) to examine the behaviour of model batter piles penetrated in dense sand, subjected to pull-out pressure by means of numerical modelling. The concept of the Winkler Model (beam on elastic foundation) has been used in which the interaction between the pile embedded depth and adjacent soil in the bearing zone is simulated by nonlinear p-y curves. The analysis was conducted on different pile slenderness ratios (lc⁄d) ranging from 7.5, 15.22 and 30 respectively. In addition, the optimum batter angle for a model steel pile penetrated in dense sand has been chosen to be 20° as this is the best angle for this simulation as demonstrated by other researcher published in literature. In this numerical analysis, the soil response is idealized as elasto-plastic and the model piles are described as elastic materials for the purpose of simulation. The results revealed that the applied loads affect the pullout pile capacity as well as the lateral pile response for dense sand together with varying shear strength parameters linked to the pile critical depth. Furthermore, the pile pull-out capacity increases with increasing the pile aspect ratios.

Keywords: Slenderness ratio, soil-pile interaction, winkler model (beam on elastic foundation), pull-out capacity.

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Authors: Lianglin Xiong, Yun Zhao, Tao Jiang

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In this paper, we study the stability of n-dimensional linear fractional neutral differential equation with time delays. By using the Laplace transform, we introduce a characteristic equation for the above system with multiple time delays. We discover that if all roots of the characteristic equation have negative parts, then the equilibrium of the above linear system with fractional order is Lyapunov globally asymptotical stable if the equilibrium exist that is almost the same as that of classical differential equations. An example is provided to show the effectiveness of the approach presented in this paper.

Keywords: Fractional neutral differential equation, Laplace transform, characteristic equation.

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Authors: Chih-Cheng Chen, Meng-Lung Lin, Yung-Tan Lee Tsun-I Hsiao, Yi-Cheng Chen

Abstract:

The Taiwan government has invested approximately 21 billion NT dollars in the construction of bicycle paths since bicycling has gained huge popularity as a healthy leisure and recreational activity. This study focuses on the behavior of recreational bicyclists in Danshuei and Bali, northern Taiwan. Data were collected from a field investigation carried out along the Danshuei bicycle path and Bali left-bank bicycle path. A total of 578 questionnaires were gathered for data analysis. Descriptive statistics and Chi-Square tests were used to assess bicyclists- behaviors. The frequency shows that, in these areas, Danshuei and Bali, most bicyclists rented bicycles, rode the bicycle path in the afternoon for about 2 hours. The used the bicycle path one time per week. For most, it was the first time to ride these bicycle paths. There were significant differences in distribution of bicycle ownership, time of day, duration of ride, ride frequency, and whether riding occurred on weekdays or weekends. Results indicated that most bicyclists in Danshuei and Bali were infrequent users.

Keywords: recreational bicyclist, bicyclist behaviors, NorthernTaiwan

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Authors: Reginald D. Smith

Abstract:

The dynamics of User Datagram Protocol (UDP) traffic over Ethernet between two computers are analyzed using nonlinear dynamics which shows that there are two clear regimes in the data flow: free flow and saturated. The two most important variables affecting this are the packet size and packet flow rate. However, this transition is due to a transcritical bifurcation rather than phase transition in models such as in vehicle traffic or theorized large-scale computer network congestion. It is hoped this model will help lay the groundwork for further research on the dynamics of networks, especially computer networks.

Keywords: congestion, packet flow, Internet, traffic dynamics, transcritical bifurcation

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Authors: Xin Zhao, Yin-fan Zhu, Wei-ping Wang, Qun Li

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The Influence Diagrams (IDs) is a kind of Probabilistic Belief Networks for graphic modeling. The usage of IDs can improve the communication among field experts, modelers, and decision makers, by showing the issue frame discussed from a high-level point of view. This paper enhances the Time-Sliced Influence Diagrams (TSIDs, or called Dynamic IDs) based formalism from a Discrete Event Systems Modeling and Simulation (DES M&S) perspective, for Exploring Analysis (EA) modeling. The enhancements enable a modeler to specify times occurred of endogenous events dynamically with stochastic sampling as model running and to describe the inter- influences among them with variable nodes in a dynamic situation that the existing TSIDs fails to capture. The new class of model is named Dynamic-Stochastic Influence Diagrams (DSIDs). The paper includes a description of the modeling formalism and the hiberarchy simulators implementing its simulation algorithm, and shows a case study to illustrate its enhancements.

Keywords: Time-sliced influence diagrams, discrete event systems, dynamic-stochastic influence diagrams, modeling formalism, simulation algorithm.

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Authors: Shahab Kavehkar, Mohammad Ali Ghorbani, Valeriy Khokhlov, Afshin Ashrafzadeh, Sabereh Darbandi

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Water level forecasting using records of past time series is of importance in water resources engineering and management. For example, water level affects groundwater tables in low-lying coastal areas, as well as hydrological regimes of some coastal rivers. Then, a reliable prediction of sea-level variations is required in coastal engineering and hydrologic studies. During the past two decades, the approaches based on the Genetic Programming (GP) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were developed. In the present study, the GP is used to forecast daily water level variations for a set of time intervals using observed water levels. The measurements from a single tide gauge at Urmia Lake, Northwest Iran, were used to train and validate the GP approach for the period from January 1997 to July 2008. Statistics, the root mean square error and correlation coefficient, are used to verify model by comparing with a corresponding outputs from Artificial Neural Network model. The results show that both these artificial intelligence methodologies are satisfactory and can be considered as alternatives to the conventional harmonic analysis.

Keywords: Water-Level variation, forecasting, artificial neural networks, genetic programming, comparative analysis.

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Authors: M. M. Toufigh, A. R. Ahangarasr, A. Ouria

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Among many different methods that are used for optimizing different engineering problems mathematical (numerical) optimization techniques are very important because they can easily be used and are consistent with most of engineering problems. Many studies and researches are done on stability analysis of three dimensional (3D) slopes and the relating probable slip surfaces and determination of factors of safety, but in most of them force equilibrium equations, as in simplified 2D methods, are considered only in two directions. In other words for decreasing mathematical calculations and also for simplifying purposes the force equilibrium equation in 3rd direction is omitted. This point is considered in just a few numbers of previous studies and most of them have only given a factor of safety and they haven-t made enough effort to find the most probable slip surface. In this study shapes of the slip surfaces are modeled, and safety factors are calculated considering the force equilibrium equations in all three directions, and also the moment equilibrium equation is satisfied in the slip direction, and using nonlinear programming techniques the shape of the most probable slip surface is determined. The model which is used in this study is a 3D model that is composed of three upper surfaces which can cover all defined and probable slip surfaces. In this research the meshing process is done in a way that all elements are prismatic with quadrilateral cross sections, and the safety factor is defined on this quadrilateral surface in the base of the element which is a part of the whole slip surface. The method that is used in this study to find the most probable slip surface is the non-linear programming method in which the objective function that must get optimized is the factor of safety that is a function of the soil properties and the coordinates of the nodes on the probable slip surface. The main reason for using non-linear programming method in this research is its quick convergence to the desired responses. The final results show a good compatibility with the previously used classical and 2D methods and also show a reasonable convergence speed.

Keywords: Non-linear programming, numerical optimization, slope stability, 3D analysis.

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