Search results for: non-linear behaviour

Authors: Zhipeng Feng, Huanhuan Qi, Pingchuan Shen, Fenggang Zang, Yixiong Zhang

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Numerical simulations of vortex-induced vibration of a three-dimensional flexible tube under uniform turbulent flow are calculated when Reynolds number is 1.35×10⁴. In order to achieve the vortex-induced vibration, the three-dimensional unsteady, viscous, incompressible Navier-Stokes equation and LES turbulence model are solved with the finite volume approach, the tube is discretized according to the finite element theory, and its dynamic equilibrium equations are solved by the Newmark method. The fluid-tube interaction is realized by utilizing the diffusion-based smooth dynamic mesh method. Considering the vortex-induced vibration system, the variety trends of lift coefficient, drag coefficient, displacement, vertex shedding frequency, phase difference angle of tube are analyzed under different frequency ratios. The nonlinear phenomena of locked-in, phase-switch are captured successfully. Meanwhile, the limit cycle and bifurcation of lift coefficient and displacement are analyzed by using trajectory, phase portrait, and Poincaré sections. The results reveal that: when drag coefficient reaches its minimum value, the transverse amplitude reaches its maximum, and the “lock-in” begins simultaneously. In the range of lock-in, amplitude decreases gradually with increasing of frequency ratio. When lift coefficient reaches its minimum value, the phase difference undergoes a suddenly change from the “out-of-phase” to the “in-phase” mode.

Keywords: Vortex induced vibration, limit cycle, CFD, FEM.

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Authors: M. Karimpour, L. Hitihamillage, N. Elkhoury, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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Rail transport authorities around the world have been facing a significant challenge when predicting rail infrastructure maintenance work for a long period of time. Generally, maintenance monitoring and prediction is conducted manually. With the restrictions in economy, the rail transport authorities are in pursuit of improved modern methods, which can provide precise prediction of rail maintenance time and location. The expectation from such a method is to develop models to minimize the human error that is strongly related to manual prediction. Such models will help them in understanding how the track degradation occurs overtime under the change in different conditions (e.g. rail load, rail type, rail profile). They need a well-structured technique to identify the precise time that rail tracks fail in order to minimize the maintenance cost/time and secure the vehicles. The rail track characteristics that have been collected over the years will be used in developing rail track degradation prediction models. Since these data have been collected in large volumes and the data collection is done both electronically and manually, it is possible to have some errors. Sometimes these errors make it impossible to use them in prediction model development. This is one of the major drawbacks in rail track degradation prediction. An accurate model can play a key role in the estimation of the long-term behavior of rail tracks. Accurate models increase the track safety and decrease the cost of maintenance in long term. In this research, a short review of rail track degradation prediction models has been discussed before estimating rail track degradation for the curve sections of Melbourne tram track system using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.

Keywords: ANFIS, MGT, Prediction modeling, rail track degradation.

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Authors: Mohammadreza Vafaei, Amirali Moradi, Sophia C. Alih

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The method selected for the design of structures not only can affect their seismic vulnerability but also can affect their construction cost. For the design of steel structures, two distinct methods have been introduced by existing codes, namely allowable stress design (ASD) and load resistant factor design (LRFD). This study investigates the effect of using the aforementioned design methods on the seismic vulnerability and construction cost of steel structures. Specifically, a 20-story building equipped with special moment resisting frame and an eccentrically braced system was selected for this study. The building was designed for three different intensities of peak ground acceleration including 0.2 g, 0.25 g, and 0.3 g using the ASD and LRFD methods. The required sizes of beams, columns, and braces were obtained using response spectrum analysis. Then, the designed frames were subjected to nine natural earthquake records which were scaled to the designed response spectrum. For each frame, the base shear, story shears, and inter-story drifts were calculated and then were compared. Results indicated that the LRFD method led to a more economical design for the frames. In addition, the LRFD method resulted in lower base shears and larger inter-story drifts when compared with the ASD method. It was concluded that the application of the LRFD method not only reduced the weights of structural elements but also provided a higher safety margin against seismic actions when compared with the ASD method.

Keywords: Allowable stress design, load resistant factor design, nonlinear time history analysis, seismic vulnerability, steel structures.

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Authors: Talal S. Abdullah, Shahin Mehraban, Geraint Lodwig, Nicholas P. Lavery

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The defining property of Interstitial Free (IF) steels is formability, comprehensively measured using the Lankford coefficient (r-value) on uniaxial tensile test data. The contributing factors supporting this feature are grain size, orientation, and elemental additions. The processes that effectively modulate these factors are the casting procedure, hot rolling, and heat treatment. An existing methodology is well-practised in the steel industry; however, large-scale production and experimentation consume significant proportions of time, money, and material. Introducing small-scale rapid alloy prototyping (RAP) as an alternative process would considerably reduce the drawbacks relative to standard practices. The aim is to finetune the existing fundamental procedures implemented in the industrial plant to adapt to the RAP route. IF material is remelted in the 80-gram coil induction melting (CIM) glovebox. To birth small grains, maximum deformation must be induced onto the cast material during the hot rolling process. The rolled strip must then satisfy the polycrystalline behaviour of the bulk material by displaying a resemblance in microstructure, hardness, and formability to that of the literature and actual plant steel. A successful outcome of this work is that small-scale RAP can achieve target compositions with similar microstructures and statistically consistent mechanical properties which complements and accelerates the development of novel steel grades.

Keywords: Interstitial free, miniaturized tensile specimen, plastic anisotropy, rapid alloy prototyping.

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Authors: Promise A. Azor, Avievie Igodo, Esabai M. Ase

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The paper merged the return of premium clause and voluntary contributions to investigate retirees’ investment plan in a defined contributory (DC) pension scheme with a portfolio comprising of a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price process is described by geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The paper considers additional voluntary contributions paid by members, charge on balance by pension fund administrators and the mortality risk of members of the scheme during the accumulation period by introducing return of premium clause. To achieve this, the Weilbull mortality force function is used to establish the mortality rate of members during accumulation phase. Furthermore, an optimization problem from the Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation is obtained using dynamic programming approach. Also, the Legendre transformation method is used to transform the HJB equation which is a nonlinear partial differential equation to a linear partial differential equation and solves the resultant equation for the value function and the optimal distribution plan under logarithm utility function. Finally, numerical simulations of the impact of some important parameters on the optimal distribution plan were obtained and it was observed that the optimal distribution plan is inversely proportional to the initial fund size, predetermined interest rate, additional voluntary contributions, charge on balance and instantaneous volatility.

Keywords: Legendre transform, logarithm utility, optimal distribution plan, return clause of premium, charge on balance, Weibull mortality function.

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Authors: Aziz, Nur Mardhiyah, Salleh, Hafez

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Implementing Information Technology/ Information System (IT/IS) is critical for every industry as its potential benefits have been to motivate many industries including the Malaysian construction industry to invest in it. To successfully implement IT/IS has become the major concern for every organisation. Identifying the critical success factors (CSFs) has become the main agenda for researchers, academicians and practitioners due to the wide number of failures reported. This research paper seeks to identify the CSFs that influence the successful implementation of IT/IS in construction industry in Malaysia. Limited factors relating to people issue will be highlighted here to showcase some as it becomes one of the major contributing factors to the failure. Three (3) organisations have participated in this study. Semi-structured interviews are employed as they offer sufficient flexibility to ensure that all relevant factors are covered. Several key issues contributing to successful implementations of IT/IS are identified. The results of this study reveal that top management support, communication, user involvement, IT staff roles and responsibility, training/skills, leader/ IT Leader, organisation culture, knowledge/ experience, motivation, awareness, focus and ambition, satisfaction, teamwork/ collaboration, willingness to change, attitude, commitment, management style, interest in IT, employee behaviour towards collaborative environment, trust, interpersonal relationship, personal characteristic and competencies are significantly associated with the successful implementations of IT/IS. It is anticipated that this study will create awareness and contribute to a better understanding amongst construction industry players and will assist them to successfully implement IT/IS.

Keywords: critical success factors, construction industry , IT/IS, people

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Authors: Rakesh Kumar, Fatima Electricwala

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One of the major thrusts of the Bus Rapid Transit System is to reduce the commuter’s dependency on private vehicles and increase the shares of public transport to make urban transportation system environmentally sustainable. In this study, commuter mode choice analysis is performed that examines behavioral responses to the proposed Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS) in Surat, with estimation of the probable shift from private mode to public mode. Further, evaluation of the BRTS scenarios, using Surat’s transportation ecological footprint was done. A multi-modal simulation model was developed in Biogeme environment to explicitly consider private users behaviors and non-linear environmental impact. The data of the different factors (variables) and its impact that might cause modal shift of private mode users to proposed BRTS were collected through home-interview survey using revealed and stated preference approach. A multi modal logit model of mode-choice was then calibrated using the collected data and validated using proposed sample. From this study, a set of perception factors, with reliable and predictable data base, to explain the variation in modal shift behaviour and their impact on Surat’s ecological environment has been identified. A case study of the proposed BRTS connecting the Surat Industrial Hub to the coastal area is provided to illustrate the approach.

Keywords: BRTS, Private Modes, Mode choice models, Ecological footprint.

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Authors: Noor Zainab Habib, Ibrahim Kamaruddin, Madzalan Napiah, Isa Mohd Tan

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This paper presents a research conducted to investigate the effect of mixing process on polypropylene (PP) modified bitumen mixed with well graded aggregate to form modified bituminous concrete mix. Two mode of mixing, namely dry and wet with different concentration of polymer polypropylene was used with 80/100 pen bitumen, to evaluate the bituminous concrete mix properties. Three percentages of polymer varying from 1-3% by the weight of bitumen was used in this study. Three mixes namely control mix, wet mix and dry mix were prepared. Optimum binder content was calculated considering Marshall Stability, flow, air voids and Marshall Quotient at different bitumen content varying from 4% - 6.5% for control, dry and wet mix. Engineering properties thus obtained at the calculated optimum bitumen content revealed that wet mixing process is advantageous in comparison to dry mixing as it increases the stiffness of the mixture with the increase in polymer content in bitumen. Stiffness value for wet mix increases with the increase in polymer content which is beneficial in terms of rutting. 1% PP dry mix also shows enhanced stiffness, with the air void content limited to 4%.The flow behaviour of dry mix doesn't indicate any major difference with the increase in polymer content revealing that polymer acting as an aggregate only without affecting the viscosity of the binder in the mix. Polypropylene (PP) when interacted with 80 pen base bitumen enhances its performance characteristics which were brought about by altered rheological properties of the modified bitumen. The decrease in flow with the increase in binder content reflects the increase in viscosity of binder which induces the plastic flow in the mix. Workability index indicates that wet mix were easy to compact up to desired void ratio in comparison to dry mix samples.

Keywords: Marshall Flow, Marshall Stability, Polymer modified bitumen, Polypropylene, Stiffness.

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Authors: Sushil Kumar Swar, Sanjay Kumar Sharma, Hari Krishan Sharma, Sushil Kumar

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The seriously damaged structures during earthquakes show the need and importance of design of reinforced concrete structures with high ductility. Reinforced concrete beam-column joints have an important function in all structures. Under seismic excitation, the beam column joint region is subjected to horizontal and vertical shear forces whose magnitude is many times higher than the adjacent beam and column. Strength and ductility of structures depends mainly on proper detailing of the reinforcement in beamcolumn joints and the old structures were found ductility deficient. DSP materials are obtained by using high quantities of super plasticizers and high volumes of micro silica. In the case of High Performance Densified Small Particle Concrete (HPDSPC), since concrete is dense even at the micro-structure level, tensile strain would be much higher than that of the conventional SFRC, SIFCON & SIMCON. This in turn will improve cracking behaviour, ductility and energy absorption capacity of composites in addition to durability. The fine fibers used in our mix are 0.3mm diameter and 10 mm which can be easily placed with high percentage. These fibers easily transfer stresses and act as a composite concrete unit to take up extremely high loads with high compressive strength. HPDSPC placed in the beam column joints helps in safety of human life due to prolonged failure.

Keywords: High Performance Densified Small Particle Concrete (HPDSPC), Steel Fıber Reinforced Concrete (SFRC), Slurry Infiltrated Concrete (SIFCON), Slurry Infiltrated Mat Concrete (SIMCON).

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Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

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This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine learning methods, such as Random Forest (RF), are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. RF showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the RF method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods: multiple linear regression and lasso regression method.

Keywords: Cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest.

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Authors: Zachariah Sinkala

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A systems approach model for prostate cancer in prostate duct, as a sub-system of the organism is developed. It is accomplished in two steps. First this research work starts with a nonlinear system of coupled Fokker-Plank equations which models continuous process of the system like motion of cells. Then extended to PDEs that include discontinuous processes like cell mutations, proliferation and deaths. The discontinuous processes is modeled by using intensity poisson processes. The model incorporates the features of the prostate duct. The system of PDEs spatial coordinate is along the proximal distal axis. Its parameters depend on features of the prostate duct. The movement of cells is biased towards distal region and mutations of prostate cancer cells is localized in the proximal region. Numerical solutions of the full system of equations are provided, and are exhibit traveling wave fronts phenomena. This motivates the use of the standard transformation to derive a canonically related system of ODEs for traveling wave solutions. The results obtained show persistence of prostate cancer by showing that the non-negative cone for the traveling wave system is time invariant. The traveling waves have a unique global attractor is proved also. Biologically, the global attractor verifies that evolution of prostate cancer stem cells exhibit the avascular tumor growth. These numerical solutions show that altering prostate stem cell movement or mutation of prostate cancer cells lead to avascular tumor. Conclusion with comments on clinical implications of the model is discussed.

Keywords: Fokker-Plank equations, global attractor, stem cell.

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Authors: Ajay Mandal, Achinta Bera

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Nanoemulsions are a class of emulsions with a droplet size in the range of 50–500 nm and have attracted a great deal of attention in recent years because it is unique characteristics. The physicochemical properties of nanoemulsion suggests that it can be successfully used to recover the residual oil which is trapped in the fine pore of reservoir rock by capillary forces after primary and secondary recovery. Oil-in-water nanoemulsion which can be formed by high-energy emulsification techniques using specific surfactants can reduce oil-water interfacial tension (IFT) by 3-4 orders of magnitude. The present work is aimed on characterization of oil-inwater nanoemulsion in terms of its phase behavior, morphological studies; interfacial energy; ability to reduce the interfacial tension and understanding the mechanisms of mobilization and displacement of entrapped oil blobs by lowering interfacial tension both at the macroscopic and microscopic level. In order to investigate the efficiency of oil-water nanoemulsion in enhanced oil recovery (EOR), experiments were performed to characterize the emulsion in terms of their physicochemical properties and size distribution of the dispersed oil droplet in water phase. Synthetic mineral oil and a series of surfactants were used to prepare oil-in-water emulsions. Characterization of emulsion shows that it follows pseudo-plastic behaviour and drop size of dispersed oil phase follows lognormal distribution. Flooding experiments were also carried out in a sandpack system to evaluate the effectiveness of the nanoemulsion as displacing fluid for enhanced oil recovery. Substantial additional recoveries (more than 25% of original oil in place) over conventional water flooding were obtained in the present investigation.

Keywords: Nanoemulsion, Characterization, Enhanced Oil Recovery, Particle Size Distribution

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Authors: Jin Woo Hwang, Byung Kwan Oh, Yousok Kim, Hyo Seon Park

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As greenhouse effect has been recognized as serious environmental problem of the world, interests in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission which comprises major part of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been increased recently. Since construction industry takes a relatively large portion of total CO₂ emissions of the world, extensive studies about reducing CO₂ emissions in construction and operation of building have been carried out after the 2000s. Also, performance based design (PBD) methodology based on nonlinear analysis has been robustly developed after Northridge Earthquake in 1994 to assure and assess seismic performance of building more exactly because structural engineers recognized that prescriptive code based design approach cannot address inelastic earthquake responses directly and assure performance of building exactly. Although CO₂ emissions and PBD approach are recent rising issues on construction industry and structural engineering, there were few or no researches considering these two issues simultaneously. Thus, the objective of this study is to minimize the CO₂ emissions and cost of building designed by PBD approach in structural design stage considering structural materials. 4 story and 4 span reinforced concrete building optimally designed to minimize CO₂ emissions and cost of building and to satisfy specific seismic performance (collapse prevention in maximum considered earthquake) of building satisfying prescriptive code regulations using non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II). Optimized design result showed that minimized CO₂ emissions and cost of building were acquired satisfying specific seismic performance. Therefore, the methodology proposed in this paper can be used to reduce both CO₂ emissions and cost of building designed by PBD approach.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, performance based design, optimization, sustainable design.

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Authors: Francesca Radice

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It has been observed that violent or coercive behaviour has been apparent from initial conversations on dating apps like Tinder. Child pornography, stalking, and coercive control are some criminal offences from dating apps, including women murdered after finding partners through Tinder. Police databases and predictive policing are novel approaches taken to prevent crime before harm is done. This research will investigate how police databases can be used in a privacy-preserving way to characterise users in terms of their potential for violent crime. Using the COPS database of NSW Police, we will explore how the past criminal record can be interpreted to yield a category of potential danger for each dating app user. It is up to the judgement of each subscriber on what degree of the potential danger they are prepared to enter into. Sentiment analysis is an area where research into natural language processing has made great progress over the last decade. This research will investigate how sentiment analysis can be used to interpret interchanges between dating app users to detect manipulative or coercive sentiments. These can be used to alert law enforcement if continued for a defined number of communications. One of the potential problems of this approach is the potential prejudice a categorisation can cause. Another drawback is the possibility of misinterpreting communications and involving law enforcement without reason. The approach will be thoroughly tested with cross-checks by human readers who verify both the level of danger predicted by the interpretation of the criminal record and the sentiment detected from personal messages. Even if only a few violent crimes can be prevented, the approach will have a tangible value for real people.

Keywords: Sentiment Analysis, data mining, predictive policing, virtual manipulation.

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Authors: M. G. Papoutsidakis, G. Chamilothoris, F. Dailami, N. Larsen, A Pipe

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Due to their high power-to-weight ratio and low cost, pneumatic actuators are attractive for robotics and automation applications; however, achieving fast and accurate control of their position have been known as a complex control problem. A methodology for obtaining high position accuracy with a linear pneumatic actuator is presented. During experimentation with a number of PID classical control approaches over many operations of the pneumatic system, the need for frequent manual re-tuning of the controller could not be eliminated. The reason for this problem is thermal and energy losses inside the cylinder body due to the complex friction forces developed by the piston displacements. Although PD controllers performed very well over short periods, it was necessary in our research project to introduce some form of automatic gain-scheduling to achieve good long-term performance. We chose a fuzzy logic system to do this, which proved to be an easily designed and robust approach. Since the PD approach showed very good behaviour in terms of position accuracy and settling time, it was incorporated into a modified form of the 1st order Tagaki- Sugeno fuzzy method to build an overall controller. This fuzzy gainscheduler uses an input variable which automatically changes the PD gain values of the controller according to the frequency of repeated system operations. Performance of the new controller was significantly improved and the need for manual re-tuning was eliminated without a decrease in performance. The performance of the controller operating with the above method is going to be tested through a high-speed web network (GRID) for research purposes.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, gain scheduling, leaky integrator, pneumatic actuator.

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Authors: Salah R. Al Zaidee, Ali S. Mahdi

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Except for simple problems of statically determinate structures, optimum design problems in structural engineering have implicit objective functions where structural analysis and design are essential within each searching loop. With these implicit functions, the structural engineer is usually enforced to write his/her own computer code for analysis, design, and searching for optimum design among many feasible candidates and cannot take advantage of available software for structural analysis, design, and searching for the optimum solution. The meta-model is a regression model used to transform an implicit objective function into objective one and leads in turn to decouple the structural analysis and design processes from the optimum searching process. With the meta-model, well-known software for structural analysis and design can be used in sequence with optimum searching software. In this paper, the meta-model has been used to develop an explicit objective function for plane steel frames subjected to dead, live, and seismic forces. Frame topology is assumed as predefined based on architectural and functional requirements. Columns and beams sections and different connections details are the main design variables in this study. Columns and beams are grouped to reduce the number of design variables and to make the problem similar to that adopted in engineering practice. Data for the implicit objective function have been generated based on analysis and assessment for many design proposals with CSI SAP software. These data have been used later in SPSS software to develop a pure quadratic nonlinear regression model for the explicit objective function. Good correlations with a coefficient, R², in the range from 0.88 to 0.99 have been noted between the original implicit functions and the corresponding explicit functions generated with meta-model.

Keywords: Meta-modal, objective function, steel frames, seismic analysis, design.

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Authors: Suman Senapati, Goutam Saha

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Real world Speaker Identification (SI) application differs from ideal or laboratory conditions causing perturbations that leads to a mismatch between the training and testing environment and degrade the performance drastically. Many strategies have been adopted to cope with acoustical degradation; wavelet based Bayesian marginal model is one of them. But Bayesian marginal models cannot model the inter-scale statistical dependencies of different wavelet scales. Simple nonlinear estimators for wavelet based denoising assume that the wavelet coefficients in different scales are independent in nature. However wavelet coefficients have significant inter-scale dependency. This paper enhances this inter-scale dependency property by a Circularly Symmetric Probability Density Function (CS-PDF) related to the family of Spherically Invariant Random Processes (SIRPs) in Log Gabor Wavelet (LGW) domain and corresponding joint shrinkage estimator is derived by Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimator. A framework is proposed based on these to denoise speech signal for automatic speaker identification problems. The robustness of the proposed framework is tested for Text Independent Speaker Identification application on 100 speakers of POLYCOST and 100 speakers of YOHO speech database in three different noise environments. Experimental results show that the proposed estimator yields a higher improvement in identification accuracy compared to other estimators on popular Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) based speaker model and Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficient (MFCC) features.

Keywords: Speaker Identification, Log Gabor Wavelet, Bayesian Bivariate Estimator, Circularly Symmetric Probability Density Function, SIRP.

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Authors: Marzieh Imani

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Antoni Gaudi and Santiago Calatrava have reputation for designing bio-inspired creative and technical buildings. Even though they have followed different independent approaches towards design, the source of bio-inspiration seems to be common. Taking a closer look at their projects reveals that Calatrava has been influenced by Gaudi in terms of interpreting nature and applying natural principles into the design process. This research firstly discusses the dialogue between Biomimicry and architecture. This review also explores human/nature discourse during the history by focusing on how nature revealed itself to the fine arts. This is explained by introducing naturalism and romantic style in architecture as the outcome of designers’ inclination towards nature. Reviewing the literature, theoretical background and practical illustration of nature have been included. The most dominant practical aspects of imitating nature are form and function. Nature has been reflected in architectural science resulted in shaping different architectural styles such as organic, green, sustainable, bionic, and biomorphic. By defining a set of common aspects of Gaudi and Calatrava‘s design approach and by considering biomimetic design categories (organism, ecosystem, and behaviour as the main division and form, function, process, material, and construction as subdivisions), Gaudi’s and Calatrava’s project have been analysed. This analysis explores if their design approaches are equivalent or different. Based on this analysis, Gaudi’s architecture can be recognised as biomorphic while Calatrava’s projects are literally biomimetic. Referring to these architects, this review suggests a new set of principles by which a bio-inspired project can be determined either biomorphic or biomimetic.

Keywords: Biomimicry, Calatrava, Gaudi, nature.

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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Authors: Zhongmin Wang, Wudong Fan, Hengshan Zhang, Yimin Zhou

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In data-driven prognostic methods, the prediction accuracy of the estimation for remaining useful life of bearings mainly depends on the performance of health indicators, which are usually fused some statistical features extracted from vibrating signals. However, the existing health indicators have the following two drawbacks: (1) The differnet ranges of the statistical features have the different contributions to construct the health indicators, the expert knowledge is required to extract the features. (2) When convolutional neural networks are utilized to tackle time-frequency features of signals, the time-series of signals are not considered. To overcome these drawbacks, in this study, the method combining convolutional neural network with gated recurrent unit is proposed to extract the time-frequency image features. The extracted features are utilized to construct health indicator and predict remaining useful life of bearings. First, original signals are converted into time-frequency images by using continuous wavelet transform so as to form the original feature sets. Second, with convolutional and pooling layers of convolutional neural networks, the most sensitive features of time-frequency images are selected from the original feature sets. Finally, these selected features are fed into the gated recurrent unit to construct the health indicator. The results state that the proposed method shows the enhance performance than the related studies which have used the same bearing dataset provided by PRONOSTIA.

Keywords: Continuous wavelet transform, convolution neural network, gated recurrent unit, health indicators, remaining useful life.

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Authors: Hsiao-Tien Pao, Yi-Ying Li, Hsin-Chia Fu

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This paper addressed the impacts of energy consumption, economic growth, financial development, and population size on environmental degradation using grey relational analysis (GRA) for China, where foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows is the proxy variable for financial development. The more recent historical data during the period 2004–2011 are used, because the use of very old data for data analysis may not be suitable for rapidly developing countries. The results of the GRA indicate that the linkage effects of energy consumption–emissions and GDP–emissions are ranked first and second, respectively. These reveal that energy consumption and economic growth are strongly correlated with emissions. Higher economic growth requires more energy consumption and increasing environmental pollution. Likewise, more efficient energy use needs a higher level of economic development. Therefore, policies to improve energy efficiency and create a low-carbon economy can reduce emissions without hurting economic growth. The finding of FDI–emissions linkage is ranked third. This indicates that China do not apply weak environmental regulations to attract inward FDI. Furthermore, China’s government in attracting inward FDI should strengthen environmental policy. The finding of population–emissions linkage effect is ranked fourth, implying that population size does not directly affect CO₂ emissions, even though China has the world’s largest population, and Chinese people are very economical use of energy-related products. Overall, the energy conservation, improving efficiency, managing demand, and financial development, which aim at curtailing waste of energy, reducing both energy consumption and emissions, and without loss of the country’s competitiveness, can be adopted for developing economies. The GRA is one of the best way to use a lower data to build a dynamic analysis model.

Keywords: Grey relational analysis, foreign direct investment, CO2 emissions, China.

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Authors: K. V. Geetha, N. R. Mangalambal

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Aim. We have introduced the notion of order to multinormed spaces and countable union spaces and their duals. The topology of bounded convergence is assigned to the dual spaces. The aim of this paper is to develop the theory of ordered topological linear spaces La,b, L(w, z), the dual spaces of ordered multinormed spaces La,b, ordered countable union spaces L(w, z), with the topology of bounded convergence assigned to the dual spaces. We apply Laplace transformation to the ordered linear space of Laplace transformable generalized functions. We ultimately aim at finding solutions to nonhomogeneous nth order linear differential equations with constant coefficients in terms of generalized functions and comparing different solutions evolved out of different initial conditions. Method. The above aim is achieved by • Defining the spaces La,b, L(w, z). • Assigning an order relation on these spaces by identifying a positive cone on them and studying the properties of the cone. • Defining an order relation on the dual spaces La,b, L(w, z) of La,b, L(w, z) and assigning a topology to these dual spaces which makes the order dual and the topological dual the same. • Defining the adjoint of a continuous map on these spaces and studying its behaviour when the topology of bounded convergence is assigned to the dual spaces. • Applying the two-sided Laplace Transformation on the ordered linear space of generalized functions W and studying some properties of the transformation which are used in solving differential equations. Result. The above techniques are applied to solve non-homogeneous n-th order linear differential equations with constant coefficients in terms of generalized functions and to compare different solutions of the differential equation.

Keywords: Laplace transformable generalized function, positive cone, topology of bounded convergence

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Authors: Smaali Assia, Outemzabet Ratiba, Media El Mahdi, Kadi Mohamed

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Films of pure tin oxide SnO2 and in presence of antimony atoms (SnO2-Sb) deposited onto glass substrates have shown a sufficiently high energy gap to be transparent in the visible region, a high electrical mobility and a carrier concentration which displays a good electrical conductivity [1]. In this work, the effects of polycrystalline silicon substrate on the optical properties of pure and Sb doped tin oxide is investigated. We used the APCVD (atmospheric pressure chemical vapour deposition) technique, which is a low-cost and simple technique, under nitrogen ambient, for growing this material. A series of SnO2 and SnO2-Sb have been deposited onto polycrystalline silicon substrates with different contents of antimony atoms at the same conditions of deposition (substrate temperature, flow oxygen, duration and nitrogen atmosphere of the reactor). The effect of the substrate in terms of morphology and nonlinear optical properties, mainly the reflectance, was studied. The reflectance intensity of the device, compared to the reflectance of tin oxide films deposited directly on glass substrate, is clearly reduced on the overall wavelength range. It is obvious that the roughness of the poly-c silicon plays an important role by improving the reflectance and hence the optical parameters. A clear shift in the minimum of the reflectance upon doping level is observed. This minimum corresponds to strong free carrier absorption, resulting in different plasma frequency. This effect is followed by an increase in the reflectance depending of the antimony doping. Applying the extended Drude theory to the combining optical and electrical obtained results these effects are discussed.

Keywords: Doping, oxide, reflectance.

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Authors: Siti Nor Hafizah binti Mohd Zaid, Mohamed Abdel-Maguid, Abdel-Hamid Soliman

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An Advance Driver Assistance System (ADAS) is a computer system on board a vehicle which is used to reduce the risk of vehicular accidents by monitoring factors relating to the driver, vehicle and environment and taking some action when a risk is identified. Much work has been done on assessing vehicle and environmental state but there is still comparatively little published work that tackles the problem of driver state. Visual attention is one such driver state. In fact, some researchers claim that lack of attention is the main cause of accidents as factors such as fatigue, alcohol or drug use, distraction and speeding all impair the driver-s capacity to pay attention to the vehicle and road conditions [1]. This seems to imply that the main cause of accidents is inappropriate driver behaviour in cases where the driver is not giving full attention while driving. The work presented in this paper proposes an ADAS system which uses an image based template matching algorithm to detect if a driver is failing to observe particular windscreen cells. This is achieved by dividing the windscreen into 24 uniform cells (4 rows of 6 columns) and matching video images of the driver-s left eye with eye-gesture templates drawn from images of the driver looking at the centre of each windscreen cell. The main contribution of this paper is to assess the accuracy of this approach using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. The results of our evaluation give a sensitivity value of 84.3% and a specificity value of 85.0% for the eye-gesture template approach indicating that it may be useful for driver point of regard determinations.

Keywords: Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, Eye-Tracking, Hazard Detection.

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Authors: Jan Langebach, Peter Fischer, Christian Karcher

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A numerical study is presented on convective heat transfer in enclosures. The results are addressed to automotive headlights containing new-age light sources like Light Emitting Diodes (LED). The heat transfer from the heat source (LED) to the enclosure walls is investigated for mixed convection as interaction of the forced convection flow from an inlet and an outlet port and the natural convection at the heat source. Unlike existing studies, inlet and outlet port are thermally coupled and do not serve to remove hot fluid. The input power of the heat source is expressed by the Rayleigh number. The internal position of the heat source, the aspect ratio of the enclosure, and the inclination angle of one wall are varied. The results are given in terms of the global Nusselt number and the enclosure Nusselt number that characterize the heat transfer from the source and from the interior fluid to the enclosure walls, respectively. It is found that the heat transfer from the source to the fluid can be maximized if the source is placed in the main stream from the inlet to the outlet port. In this case, the Reynolds number and heat source position have the major impact on the heat transfer. A disadvantageous position has been found where natural and forced convection compete each other. The overall heat transfer from the source to the wall increases with increasing Reynolds number as well as with increasing aspect ratio and decreasing inclination angle. The heat transfer from the interior fluid to the enclosure wall increases upon decreasing the aspect ratio and increasing the inclination angle. This counteracting behaviour is caused by the variation of the area of the enclosure wall. All mixed convection results are compared to the natural convection limit.

Keywords: Enclosure, heat source, heat transfer, mixed convection.

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Authors: Mohamed Elghorab, Vendra C. Madhav Rao, Jennifer X. Wen

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Turbulence modelling is still evolving, and efforts are on to improve and develop numerical methods to simulate the real turbulence structures by using the empirical and experimental information. The monotonically integrated large eddy simulation (MILES) is an attractive approach for modelling turbulence in high Re flows, which is based on the solving of the unfiltered flow equations with no explicit sub-grid scale (SGS) model. In the current work, this approach has been used, and the action of the SGS model has been included implicitly by intrinsic nonlinear high-frequency filters built into the convection discretization schemes. The MILES solver is developed using the opensource CFD OpenFOAM libraries. The role of flux limiters schemes namely, Gamma, superBee, van-Albada and van-Leer, is studied in predicting turbulent statistical quantities for a fully developed channel flow with a friction Reynolds number, Re_T = 180, and compared the numerical predictions with the well-established Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) results for studying the wall generated turbulence. It is inferred from the numerical predictions that Gamma, van-Leer and van-Albada limiters produced more diffusion and overpredicted the velocity profiles, while superBee scheme reproduced velocity profiles and turbulence statistical quantities in good agreement with the reference DNS data in the streamwise direction although it deviated slightly in the spanwise and normal to the wall directions. The simulation results are further discussed in terms of the turbulence intensities and Reynolds stresses averaged in time and space to draw conclusion on the flux limiter schemes performance in OpenFOAM context.

Keywords: Flux limiters, MILES, OpenFOAM, turbulence structures, TVD schemes.

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Authors: Ali Ghaffari, Mansour Nikkhah Bahrami, Hesam Parsa

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In this paper a comprehensive model of a fossil fueled power plant (FFPP) is developed in order to evaluate the performance of a newly designed turbine follower controller. Considering the drawbacks of previous works, an overall model is developed to minimize the error between each subsystem model output and the experimental data obtained at the actual power plant. The developed model is organized in two main subsystems namely; Boiler and Turbine. Considering each FFPP subsystem characteristics, different modeling approaches are developed. For economizer, evaporator, superheater and reheater, first order models are determined based on principles of mass and energy conservation. Simulations verify the accuracy of the developed models. Due to the nonlinear characteristics of attemperator, a new model, based on a genetic-fuzzy systems utilizing Pittsburgh approach is developed showing a promising performance vis-à-vis those derived with other methods like ANFIS. The optimization constraints are handled utilizing penalty functions. The effect of increasing the number of rules and membership functions on the performance of the proposed model is also studied and evaluated. The turbine model is developed based on the equation of adiabatic expansion. Parameters of all evaluated models are tuned by means of evolutionary algorithms. Based on the developed model a fuzzy PI controller is developed. It is then successfully implemented in the turbine follower control strategy of the plant. In this control strategy instead of keeping control parameters constant, they are adjusted on-line with regard to the error and the error rate. It is shown that the response of the system improves significantly. It is also shown that fuel consumption decreases considerably.

Keywords: Attemperator, Evolutionary algorithms, Fossil fuelled power plant (FFPP), Fuzzy set theory, Gain scheduling

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Authors: Ke Zhao, Ballarat Colin Richardson, Jerry Courvisanos, John Crawford

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Climate change has profound consequences for the agriculture of south-eastern Australia and its climate-induced water shortage in the Murray-Darling Basin. Post Keynesian Economics (PKE) macro-dynamics, along with Kaleckian investment and growth theory, are used to develop an ecological-economic system dynamics model of this complex nonlinear river basin system. The Murray- Darling Basin Simulation Model (MDB-SM) uses the principles of PKE to incorporate the fundamental uncertainty of economic behaviors of farmers regarding the investments they make and the climate change they face, particularly as regards water ecosystem services. MDB-SM provides a framework for macroeconomic policies, especially for long-term fiscal policy and for policy directed at the sustainability of agricultural water, as measured by socio-economic well-being considerations, which include sustainable consumption and investment in the river basin. The model can also reproduce other ecological and economic aspects and, for certain parameters and initial values, exhibit endogenous business cycles and ecological sustainability with realistic characteristics. Most importantly, MDBSM provides a platform for the analysis of alternative economic policy scenarios. These results reveal the importance of understanding water ecosystem adaptation under climate change by integrating a PKE macroeconomic analytical framework with the system dynamics modelling approach. Once parameterised and supplied with historical initial values, MDB-SM should prove to be a practical tool to provide alternative long-term policy simulations of agricultural water and socio-economic well-being.

Keywords: Agricultural water, Macroeconomic dynamics, Modeling, Investment dynamics, Sustainability, Unemployment, Economics, Keynesian, Kaleckian.

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Authors: J. Novak, A. Kohoutkova, V. Kristek, J. Vodicka, M. Sramek

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While the use of cast-in-place concrete for an airfield and highway pavement overlay is very common, the application of precast concrete elements is very limited today. The main reasons consist of high production costs and complex structural behavior. Despite that, several precast concrete systems have been developed and tested with the aim to provide a system with rapid construction. The contribution deals with the reinforcement design of a hexagonal element developed for a proposed airfield pavement system. The sub-base course of the system is composed of compacted recycled concrete aggregates and fiber reinforced concrete with recycled aggregates place on top of it. The selected element belongs to a group of precast concrete elements which are being considered for the construction of a surface course. Both high costs of full-scale experiments and the need to investigate various elements force to simulate their behavior in a numerical analysis software by using finite element method instead of performing expensive experiments. The simulation of the selected element was conducted on a nonlinear model in order to obtain such results which could fully compensate results from experiments. The main objective was to design reinforcement of the precast concrete element subject to quasi-static loading from airplanes with respect to geometrical imperfections, manufacturing imperfections, tensile stress in reinforcement, compressive stress in concrete and crack width. The obtained findings demonstrate that the position and the presence of imperfection in a pavement highly affect the stress distribution in the precast concrete element. The precast concrete element should be heavily reinforced to fulfill all the demands. Using under-reinforced concrete elements would lead to the formation of wide cracks and cracks permanently open.

Keywords: Imperfection, numerical simulation, pavement, precast concrete element, reinforcement design, stress analysis.

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Authors: Abinash Tripathy, Girish Muralidharan, Amitava Pramanik, Prosenjit Sen

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Superhydrophobic surfaces are abundant in nature. Several surfaces such as wings of butterfly, legs of water strider, feet of gecko and the lotus leaf show extreme water repellence behaviour. Self-cleaning, stain-free fabrics, spill-resistant protective wears, drag reduction in micro-fluidic devices etc. are few applications of superhydrophobic surfaces. In order to design robust superhydrophobic surface, it is important to understand the interaction of water with superhydrophobic surface textures. In this work, we report a simple coating method for creating large-scale flexible superhydrophobic paper surface. The surface consists of multiple layers of silanized zirconia microparticles decorated with zirconia nanoparticles. Water contact angle as high as 159±1⁰ and contact angle hysteresis less than 8⁰ was observed. Drop impact studies on superhydrophobic paper surface were carried out by impinging water droplet and capturing its dynamics through high speed imaging. During the drop impact, the Weber number was varied from 20 to 80 by altering the impact velocity of the drop and the parameters such as contact time, normalized spread diameter were obtained. In contrast to earlier literature reports, we observed contact time to be dependent on impact velocity on superhydrophobic surface. Total contact time was split into two components as spread time and recoil time. The recoil time was found to be dependent on the impact velocity while the spread time on the surface did not show much variation with the impact velocity. Further, normalized spreading parameter was found to increase with increase in impact velocity.

Keywords: Contact angle, contact angle hysteresis, contact time, superhydrophobic.

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