Search results for: Service Interaction Patterns
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2900

Search results for: Service Interaction Patterns

1430 Analysis of Cooperative Learning Behavior Based on the Data of Students' Movement

Authors: Wang Lin, Li Zhiqiang

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the cooperative learning behavior pattern based on the data of students' movement. The study firstly reviewed the cooperative learning theory and its research status, and briefly introduced the k-means clustering algorithm. Then, it used clustering algorithm and mathematical statistics theory to analyze the activity rhythm of individual student and groups in different functional areas, according to the movement data provided by 10 first-year graduate students. It also focused on the analysis of students' behavior in the learning area and explored the law of cooperative learning behavior. The research result showed that the cooperative learning behavior analysis method based on movement data proposed in this paper is feasible. From the results of data analysis, the characteristics of behavior of students and their cooperative learning behavior patterns could be found.

Keywords: Behavior pattern, cooperative learning, data analyze, K-means clustering algorithm.

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1429 2D Gabor Functions and FCMI Algorithm for Flaws Detection in Ultrasonic Images

Authors: Kechida Ahmed, Drai Redouane, Khelil Mohamed

Abstract:

In this paper we present a new approach to detecting a flaw in T.O.F.D (Time Of Flight Diffraction) type ultrasonic image based on texture features. Texture is one of the most important features used in recognizing patterns in an image. The paper describes texture features based on 2D Gabor functions, i.e., Gaussian shaped band-pass filters, with dyadic treatment of the radial spatial frequency range and multiple orientations, which represent an appropriate choice for tasks requiring simultaneous measurement in both space and frequency domains. The most relevant features are used as input data on a Fuzzy c-mean clustering classifier. The classes that exist are only two: 'defects' or 'no defects'. The proposed approach is tested on the T.O.F.D image achieved at the laboratory and on the industrial field.

Keywords: 2D Gabor Functions, flaw detection, fuzzy c-mean clustering, non destructive testing, texture analysis, T.O.F.D Image (Time of Flight Diffraction).

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1428 An Experimental Study of a Self-Supervised Classifier Ensemble

Authors: Neamat El Gayar

Abstract:

Learning using labeled and unlabelled data has received considerable amount of attention in the machine learning community due its potential in reducing the need for expensive labeled data. In this work we present a new method for combining labeled and unlabeled data based on classifier ensembles. The model we propose assumes each classifier in the ensemble observes the input using different set of features. Classifiers are initially trained using some labeled samples. The trained classifiers learn further through labeling the unknown patterns using a teaching signals that is generated using the decision of the classifier ensemble, i.e. the classifiers self-supervise each other. Experiments on a set of object images are presented. Our experiments investigate different classifier models, different fusing techniques, different training sizes and different input features. Experimental results reveal that the proposed self-supervised ensemble learning approach reduces classification error over the single classifier and the traditional ensemble classifier approachs.

Keywords: Multiple Classifier Systems, classifier ensembles, learning using labeled and unlabelled data, K-nearest neighbor classifier, Bayes classifier.

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1427 Spatial Behavioral Model-Based Dynamic Data-Driven Diagram Information Model

Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

Abstract:

Diagram and drawing are important ways to communicate and the reproduce of architectural design, Due to the development of information and communication technology, the professional thinking of architecture and interior design are also change rapidly. In development process of design, diagram always play very important role. This study is based on diagram theories, observe and record interaction between man and objects, objects and space, and space and time in a modern nuclear family. Construct a method for diagram to systematically and visualized describe the space plan of a modern nuclear family toward an intelligent design, to assist designer to retrieve information and review event pattern of past and present.

Keywords: Digital diagram, information model, context aware, data analysis.

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1426 The Influence of Islamic Arts on Omani Weaving Motifs

Authors: Zahra Ahmed Al-Zadjali

Abstract:

The influence of Islam on arts can be found primarily in calligraphy, arabesque designs and architecture. Also, geometric designs were used quite extensively. Muslim craftsmen produced stunning designs based on simple geometric principles and traditional motifs which were used to decorate many surfaces. The idea of interlacing simple rectilinear lines to form the patterns impressed Arabs. Nomads of Persia, Turks and Mongols were equally impressed with the designs so they begin to use them in their homes in carpet weaving. Islamic designs, motifs and colours which were used became common place and served to influence people’s tastes. Modern life style and contemporary products have changed the style of people’s daily lives, however, people still long for the nomadic way of life. This is clearly reflected in people’s homes. In a great many Muslim homes, Islamic decorative motifs can be seen along with traditional ‘Bedouin’ style furnishing, especially in homes of the Arabian Peninsula.

Keywords: Cultural heritage, textile design, Islamic art, motifs.

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1425 Comparative Analysis of Diversity and Similarity Indices with Special Relevance to Vegetations around Sewage Drains

Authors: Ekta Singh

Abstract:

Indices summarizing community structure are used to evaluate fundamental community ecology, species interaction, biogeographical factors, and environmental stress. Some of these indices are insensitive to gross community changes induced by contaminants of pollution. Diversity indices and similarity indices are reviewed considering their ecological application, both theoretical and practical. For some useful indices, empirical equations are given to calculate the expected maximum value of the indices to which the observed values can be related at any combination of sample sizes at the experimental sites. This paper examines the effects of sample size and diversity on the expected values of diversity indices and similarity indices, using various formulae. It has been shown that all indices are strongly affected by sample size and diversity. In some indices, this influence is greater than the others and an attempt has been made to deal with these influences.

Keywords: Biogeographical factors, Diversity Indices, Ecology and Similarity Indices

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1424 Cluster Analysis of Customer Churn in Telecom Industry

Authors: Abbas Al-Refaie

Abstract:

The research examines the factors that affect customer churn (CC) in the Jordanian telecom industry. A total of 700 surveys were distributed. Cluster analysis revealed three main clusters. Results showed that CC and customer satisfaction (CS) were the key determinants in forming the three clusters. In two clusters, the center values of CC were high, indicating that the customers were loyal and SC was expensive and time- and energy-consuming. Still, the mobile service provider (MSP) should enhance its communication (COM), and value added services (VASs), as well as customer complaint management systems (CCMS). Finally, for the third cluster the center of the CC indicates a poor level of loyalty, which facilitates customers churn to another MSP. The results of this study provide valuable feedback for MSP decision makers regarding approaches to improving their performance and reducing CC.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, telecom industry, switching cost, customer churn.

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1423 Automatic Light Control in Domotics using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Carlos Machado, José A. Mendes

Abstract:

Home Automation is a field that, among other subjects, is concerned with the comfort, security and energy requirements of private homes. The configuration of automatic functions in this type of houses is not always simple to its inhabitants requiring the initial setup and regular adjustments. In this work, the ubiquitous computing system vision is used, where the users- action patterns are captured, recorded and used to create the contextawareness that allows the self-configuration of the home automation system. The system will try to free the users from setup adjustments as the home tries to adapt to its inhabitants- real habits. In this paper it is described a completely automated process to determine the light state and act on them, taking in account the users- daily habits. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used as a pattern recognition method, classifying for each moment the light state. The work presented uses data from a real house where a family is actually living.

Keywords: ANN, Home Automation, Neural Systems, PatternRecognition, Ubiquitous Computing.

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1422 Influence and Interaction of Temperature, H2S and pH on Concrete Sewer Pipe Corrosion

Authors: Anna Romanova, Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Morteza A. Alani

Abstract:

Concrete sewer pipes are known to suffer from a process of hydrogen sulfide gas induced sulfuric acid corrosion. This leads to premature pipe degradation, performance failure and collapses which in turn may lead to property and health damage. The above work reports on a field study undertaken in working sewer manholes where the parameters of effluent temperature and pH as well as ambient temperature and concentration of hydrogen sulfide were continuously measured over a period of two months. Early results suggest that effluent pH has no direct effect on hydrogen sulfide build up; on average the effluent temperature is 3.5°C greater than the ambient temperature inside the manhole and also it was observed that hydrogen sulfate concentration increases with increasing temperature.

Keywords: Concrete corrosion, hydrogen sulphide gas, temperature, sewer pipe.

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1421 Fisheries Education in Karnataka: Trends, Current Status, Performance and Prospects

Authors: A. Vinay, Mary Josephine, Shreesha. S. Rao, Dhande Kranthi Kumar, J. Nandini

Abstract:

This paper looks at the development of Fisheries education in Karnataka and the supply of skilled human capital to the sector. The study tries to analyse their job occupancy patterns, Compound Growth Rate (CGR) and forecasts the fisheries graduates supply using the Holt method. In Karnataka, fisheries are one of the neglected allied sectors of agriculture in spite of having enormous scope and potential to contribute to the State's agriculture GDP. The State Government has been negligent in absorbing skilled human capital for the development of fisheries, as there are so many vacant positions in both education institutes, as well as the State fisheries department. CGR and forecasting of fisheries graduates shows a positive growth rate and increasing trend, from which we can understand that by proper utilization of skilled human capital can bring development in the fisheries sector of Karnataka.

Keywords: Compound growth rate, fisheries education, Holt method, skilled human capital.

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1420 Pattern Recognition as an Internalized Motor Programme

Authors: M. Jändel

Abstract:

A new conceptual architecture for low-level neural pattern recognition is presented. The key ideas are that the brain implements support vector machines and that support vectors are represented as memory patterns in competitive queuing memories. A binary classifier is built from two competitive queuing memories holding positive and negative valence training examples respectively. The support vector machine classification function is calculated in synchronized evaluation cycles. The kernel is computed by bisymmetric feed-forward networks feed by sensory input and by competitive queuing memories traversing the complete sequence of support vectors. Temporary summation generates the output classification. It is speculated that perception apparatus in the brain reuses structures that have evolved for enabling fluent execution of prepared action sequences so that pattern recognition is built on internalized motor programmes.

Keywords: Competitive queuing model, Olfactory system, Pattern recognition, Support vector machine, Thalamus

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1419 Towards Cloud Computing Anatomy

Authors: Maria Salama, Mohamed Kouta

Abstract:

Cloud Computing has recently emerged as a compelling paradigm for managing and delivering services over the internet. The rise of Cloud Computing is rapidly changing the landscape of information technology, and ultimately turning the longheld promise of utility computing into a reality. As the development of Cloud Computing paradigm is speedily progressing, concepts, and terminologies are becoming imprecise and ambiguous, as well as different technologies are interfering. Thus, it becomes crucial to clarify the key concepts and definitions. In this paper, we present the anatomy of Cloud Computing, covering its essential concepts, prominent characteristics, its affects, architectural design and key technologies. We differentiate various service and deployment models. Also, significant challenges and risks need are tackled in order to guarantee the long-term success of Cloud Computing. The aim of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the anatomy of Cloud Computing and pave the way for further research in this area.

Keywords: Anatomy, Aspects, Cloud Computing, Challenges.

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1418 Account Management Method with Blind Signature Scheme

Authors: Ryu Watanabe, Yutaka Miyake

Abstract:

Reducing the risk of information leaks is one of the most important functions of identity management systems. To achieve this purpose, Dey et al. have already proposed an account management method for a federated login system using a blind signature scheme. In order to ensure account anonymity for the authentication provider, referred to as an IDP (identity provider), a blind signature scheme is utilized to generate an authentication token on an authentication service and the token is sent to an IDP. However, there is a problem with the proposed system. Malicious users can establish multiple accounts on an IDP by requesting such accounts. As a measure to solve this problem, in this paper, the authors propose an account checking method that is performed before account generation.

Keywords: identity management, blind signature, privacy protection

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1417 Domain-based Key Management Scheme for Active Network

Authors: Jong-Whoi Shin, Soon-Tai Park, Chong-Sun Hwang

Abstract:

Active network was developed to solve the problem of the current sharing-based network–difficulty in applying new technology, service or standard, and duplicated operation at several protocol layers. Active network can transport the packet loaded with the executable codes, which enables to change the state of the network node. However, if the network node is placed in the sharing-based network, security and safety issues should be resolved. To satisfy this requirement, various security aspects are required such as authentication, authorization, confidentiality and integrity. Among these security components, the core factor is the encryption key. As a result, this study is designed to propose the scheme that manages the encryption key, which is used to provide security of the comprehensive active directory, based on the domain.

Keywords: Active Network, Domain-based Key Management, Security Components.

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1416 Identification of Roadway Wavelengths Affecting the Dynamic Responses of Bridges due to Vehicular Loading

Authors: Ghada Karaki

Abstract:

The bridge vibration due to traffic loading has been a subject of extensive research during the last decades. A number of these studies are concerned with the effects of the unevenness of roadways on the dynamic responses of highway bridges. The road unevenness is often described as a random process that constitutes of different wavelengths. Thus, the study focuses on examining the effects of the random description of roadways on the dynamic response and its variance. A new setting of variance based sensitivity analysis is proposed and used to identify and quantify the contributions of the roadway-s wavelengths to the variance of the dynamic response. Furthermore, the effect of the vehicle-s speed on the dynamic response is studied.

Keywords: vehicle bridge interaction, sensitivity analysis, road unevenness, random processes, critical speeds

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1415 HIV Modelling - Parallel Implementation Strategies

Authors: Dimitri Perrin, Heather J. Ruskin, Martin Crane

Abstract:

We report on the development of a model to understand why the range of experience with respect to HIV infection is so diverse, especially with respect to the latency period. To investigate this, an agent-based approach is used to extract highlevel behaviour which cannot be described analytically from the set of interaction rules at the cellular level. A network of independent matrices mimics the chain of lymph nodes. Dealing with massively multi-agent systems requires major computational effort. However, parallelisation methods are a natural consequence and advantage of the multi-agent approach and, using the MPI library, are here implemented, tested and optimized. Our current focus is on the various implementations of the data transfer across the network. Three communications strategies are proposed and tested, showing that the most efficient approach is communication based on the natural lymph-network connectivity.

Keywords: HIV, Immune modelling, MPI, Parallelisation.

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1414 Technology Integrated Education – Shaping the Personality and Social Development of the Young

Authors: R. Ramli, S. Sameon

Abstract:

There has been a strong link between computermediated education and constructivism learning and teaching theory.. Acknowledging how well the constructivism doctrine would work online, it has been established that constructivist views of learning would agreeably correlate with the philosophy of open and distance learning. Asynchronous and synchronous communications have placed online learning on the right track of a constructive learning path. This paper is written based on the social constructivist framework, where knowledge is constructed from social communication and interaction. The study explores the possibility of practicing this theory through incorporating online discussion in the syllabus and the ways it can be implemented to contribute to young people-s personality and social development by addressing some aspects that may contribute to the social problem such as prejudice, ignorance and intolerance.

Keywords: Educational Technology, Internet, Personal Development, Student Exchange

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1413 Parametric Analysis of Water Lily Shaped Split Ring Resonator Loaded Fractal Monopole Antenna for Multiband Applications

Authors: C. Elavarasi, T. Shanmuganantham

Abstract:

A coplanar waveguide (CPW) feed is presented, and comprising a split ring resonator (SRR) loaded fractal with water lily shape is used for multi band applications. The impedance matching of the antenna is determined by the number of Koch curve fractal unit cells. The antenna is designed on a FR4 substrate with a permittivity of εr = 4.4 and size of 14 x 16 x 1.6 mm3 to generate multi resonant mode at 3.8 GHz covering S band, 8.68 GHz at X band, 13.96 GHz at Ku band, and 19.74 GHz at K band with reflection coefficient better than -10 dB. Simulation results show that the antenna exhibits the desired voltage standing wave ratio (VSWR) level and radiation patterns across the wide frequency range. The fundamental parameters of the antenna such as return loss, VSWR, good radiation pattern with reasonable gain across the operating bands are obtained.

Keywords: Monopole antenna, fractal, metamaterial, waterlily shape, split ring resonator, multiband.

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1412 Using Radio Frequency Identification Technology in Supply Chain Management

Authors: Eleonora Tudora, Adriana Alexandru

Abstract:

The radio frequency identification (RFID) is a technology for automatic identification of items, particularly in supply chain, but it is becoming increasingly important for industrial applications. Unlike barcode technology that detects the optical signals reflected from barcode labels, RFID uses radio waves to transmit the information from an RFID tag affixed to the physical object. In contrast to today most often use of this technology in warehouse inventory and supply chain, the focus of this paper is an overview of the structure of RFID systems used by RFID technology and it also presents a solution based on the application of RFID for brand authentication, traceability and tracking, by implementing a production management system and extending its use to traders.

Keywords: RFID, RFID Tag, Electronic Product Code (EPC), EPC network, Object Naming Service (ONS), Authentication, Traceability.

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1411 Wood Species Recognition System

Authors: Bremananth R, Nithya B, Saipriya R

Abstract:

The proposed system identifies the species of the wood using the textural features present in its barks. Each species of a wood has its own unique patterns in its bark, which enabled the proposed system to identify it accurately. Automatic wood recognition system has not yet been well established mainly due to lack of research in this area and the difficulty in obtaining the wood database. In our work, a wood recognition system has been designed based on pre-processing techniques, feature extraction and by correlating the features of those wood species for their classification. Texture classification is a problem that has been studied and tested using different methods due to its valuable usage in various pattern recognition problems, such as wood recognition, rock classification. The most popular technique used for the textural classification is Gray-level Co-occurrence Matrices (GLCM). The features from the enhanced images are thus extracted using the GLCM is correlated, which determines the classification between the various wood species. The result thus obtained shows a high rate of recognition accuracy proving that the techniques used in suitable to be implemented for commercial purposes.

Keywords: Correlation, Grey Level Co-Occurrence Matrix, ProbabilityDensity Function, Wood Recognition.

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1410 Flow Field Analysis of Submerged Horizontal Plate Type Breakwater

Authors: Ke Wang, Zhi-Qiang Zhang, Z. Chen

Abstract:

A submerged horizontal plate type breakwater is pointed out as an efficient wave protection device for cage culture in marine fishery. In order to reveal the wave elimination principle of this type breakwater, boundary element method is utilized to investigate this problem. The flow field and the trajectory of water particles are studied carefully. The flow field analysis shows that: the interaction of incident wave and adverse current above the plate disturbs the water domain drastically. This can slow down the horizontal velocity and vertical velocity of the water particles.

Keywords: boundary element method, plate type breakwater, flow field analysis

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1409 Model Updating-Based Approach for Damage Prognosis in Frames via Modal Residual Force

Authors: Gholamreza Ghodrati Amiri, Mojtaba Jafarian Abyaneh, Ali Zare Hosseinzadeh

Abstract:

This paper presents an effective model updating strategy for damage localization and quantification in frames by defining damage detection problem as an optimization issue. A generalized version of the Modal Residual Force (MRF) is employed for presenting a new damage-sensitive cost function. Then, Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm is utilized for solving suggested inverse problem and the global extremums are reported as damage detection results. The applicability of the presented method is investigated by studying different damage patterns on the benchmark problem of the IASC-ASCE, as well as a planar shear frame structure. The obtained results emphasize good performance of the method not only in free-noise cases, but also when the input data are contaminated with different levels of noises.

Keywords: Frame, grey wolf optimization algorithm, modal residual force, structural damage detection.

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1408 Design Analysis of a Slotted Microstrip Antenna for Wireless Communication

Authors: Norbahiah Misran, Mohammed N. Shakib, Mohammad T. Islam, Baharudin Yatim

Abstract:

In this paper, a new design technique for enhancing bandwidth that improves the performance of a conventional microstrip patch antenna is proposed. This paper presents a novel wideband probe fed inverted slotted microstrip patch antenna. The design adopts contemporary techniques; coaxial probe feeding, inverted patch structure and slotted patch. The composite effect of integrating these techniques and by introducing the proposed patch, offer a low profile, broadband, high gain, and low cross-polarization level. The results for the VSWR, gain and co-and cross-polarization patterns are presented. The antenna operating the band of 1.80-2.36 GHz shows an impedance bandwidth (2:1 VSWR) of 27% and a gain of 10.18 dBi with a gain variation of 1.12 dBi. Good radiation characteristics, including a cross-polarization level in xz-plane less than -42 dB, have been obtained.

Keywords: Slotted antenna, microstrip patch antenna, wideband, coaxial probe fed.

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1407 Challenges for Security in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs)

Authors: Muazzam A. Khan, Ghalib A. Shah, Muhammad Sher

Abstract:

Wireless sensor network is formed with the combination of sensor nodes and sink nodes. Recently Wireless sensor network has attracted attention of the research community. The main application of wireless sensor network is security from different attacks both for mass public and military. However securing these networks, by itself is a critical issue due to many constraints like limited energy, computational power and lower memory. Researchers working in this area have proposed a number of security techniques for this purpose. Still, more work needs to be done.In this paper we provide a detailed discussion on security in wireless sensor networks. This paper will help to identify different obstacles and requirements for security of wireless sensor networks as well as highlight weaknesses of existing techniques.

Keywords: Wireless senor networks (WSNs), security, denial of service, black hole, cryptography, stenography.

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1406 Graphical Password Security Evaluation by Fuzzy AHP

Authors: Arash Habibi Lashkari, Azizah Abdul Manaf, Maslin Masrom

Abstract:

In today's day and age, one of the important topics in information security is authentication. There are several alternatives to text-based authentication of which includes Graphical Password (GP) or Graphical User Authentication (GUA). These methods stems from the fact that humans recognized and remembers images better than alphanumerical text characters. This paper will focus on the security aspect of GP algorithms and what most researchers have been working on trying to define these security features and attributes. The goal of this study is to develop a fuzzy decision model that allows automatic selection of available GP algorithms by taking into considerations the subjective judgments of the decision makers who are more than 50 postgraduate students of computer science. The approach that is being proposed is based on the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) which determines the criteria weight as a linear formula.

Keywords: Graphical Password, Authentication Security, Attack Patterns, Brute force attack, Dictionary attack, Guessing Attack, Spyware attack, Shoulder surfing attack, Social engineering Attack, Password Entropy, Password Space.

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1405 Application of HVOF Thermal Spraying inHigh Speed Gas Compressor Shafts

Authors: M.Jalali Azizpour, S.norouzi, H.mohammadi majd, H.Talebi, A.Ghamari

Abstract:

In this paper, the application of thermal spray coatings in high speed shafts by a revolution up to 23000 RPM has been studied. Gas compressor shafts are worn in contact zone with journal therefore will be undersized. Wear mechanisms of compressor shaft were identified. The predominant wear mechanism is abrasion wear. The worn surface was coated by hard WC-Co cermets using high velocity oxy fuel (HVOF) after preparation. The shafts were in satisfactory service in 8000h period. The metallurgical and Tribological studies has been made on the worn and coated shaft using optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction.

Keywords: Thermal spray, Residual stress, Wear mechanism, HVOF, Gas compressor shafts.

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1404 Hybrid Association Control Scheme and Load Balancing in Wireless LANs

Authors: Chutima Prommak, Airisa Jantaweetip

Abstract:

This paper presents a hybrid association control scheme that can maintain load balancing among access points in the wireless LANs and can satisfy the quality of service requirements of the multimedia traffic applications. The proposed model is mathematically described as a linear programming model. Simulation study and analysis were conducted in order to demonstrate the performance of the proposed hybrid load balancing and association control scheme. Simulation results shows that the proposed scheme outperforms the other schemes in term of the percentage of blocking and the quality of the data transfer rate providing to the multimedia and real-time applications.

Keywords: Association control, Load balancing, Wireless LANs

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1403 Conduction Model Compatible for Multi-Physical Domain Dynamic Investigations: Bond Graph Approach

Authors: A. Zanj, F. He

Abstract:

In the current paper, a domain independent conduction model compatible for multi-physical system dynamic investigations is suggested. By means of a port-based approach, a classical nonlinear conduction model containing physical states is first represented. A compatible discrete configuration of the thermal domain in line with the elastic domain is then generated through the enhancement of the configuration of the conventional thermal element. The presented simulation results of a sample structure indicate that the suggested conductive model can cover a wide range of dynamic behavior of the thermal domain.

Keywords: Multi-physical domain, conduction model, port-based modeling, dynamic interaction, physical modeling.

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1402 Transient Analysis of a Single-Server Queue with Fixed-Size Batch Arrivals

Authors: Vitalice K. Oduol, C. Ardil

Abstract:

The transient analysis of a queuing system with fixed-size batch Poisson arrivals and a single server with exponential service times is presented. The focus of the paper is on the use of the functions that arise in the analysis of the transient behaviour of the queuing system. These functions are shown to be a generalization of the modified Bessel functions of the first kind, with the batch size B as the generalizing parameter. Results for the case of single-packet arrivals are obtained first. The similarities between the two families of functions are then used to obtain results for the general case of batch arrival queue with a batch size larger than one.

Keywords: batch arrivals, generalized Bessel functions, queuetransient analysis, time-varying probabilities.

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1401 Uncertainty of the Brazilian Earth System Model for Solar Radiation

Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

Abstract:

This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: Climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty.

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