Search results for: annual repair and maintenance costs

Authors: Mohammed A. Hajeeh

Abstract:

This paper examines the behavior of a system, which upon failure is either replaced with certain probability p or imperfectly repaired with probability q. The system is analyzed using Kolmogorov's forward equations method; the analytical expression for the steady state availability is derived as an indicator of the system’s performance. It is found that the analysis becomes more complex as the number of imperfect repairs increases. It is also observed that the availability increases as the number of states and replacement probability increases. Using such an approach in more complex configurations and in dynamic systems is cumbersome; therefore, it is advisable to resort to simulation or heuristics. In this paper, an example is provided for demonstration.

Keywords: Repairable models, imperfect, availability, exponential distribution.

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Authors: M. Bouguerra, H. Meglouli, I. Habi

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The great majority of the electric installations belong to the first and second category. In order to ensure a high level of reliability of their electric system feeder, two power supply sources are envisaged, one principal, the other of reserve, generally a cold reserve (electric diesel group). The principal source being under operation, its control can be ideal and sure, however for the reserve source being in stop, a preventive maintenance-s which proceeds on time intervals (periodicity) and for well defined lengths of time are envisaged, so that this source will always available in case of the principal source failure. The choice of the periodicity of preventive maintenance of the source of reserve influences directly the reliability of the electric feeder system. On the basis of the semi-markovians processes, the influence of the periodicity of the preventive maintenance of the source of reserve is studied and is given the optimal periodicity.

Keywords: Semi Markovians processes, reliability, optimization, electric network.

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Authors: Efat Lali Dastjerdi, Hassan Sadeghi Naeini, Hadi Sanjari

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One of the important steps in a safety and risk management system is the economical evaluation of occupational accident and diseases costs in order to decrease accidents from reoccurring in the workplace. This study proposed a plausible method for calculating occupational accident costs and illnesses in work place. This method design for cost estimation takes into account both the personnel, organizational level as well as the community level especially intended for an Iranian work place. The research indicates that a using systematic method for calculating costs which also provides risk evaluation can help managers to plan correctly the investment in health and safety measures. Using this method is that not only is it comprehensive, easy and practical and could be applied in practice by a manager within a short period of time but it also shows the importance of accident costs as well as calculates the real cost of an accident and illnesses.

Keywords: ost calculating model, Economics of health and Safety.

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Authors: Sung-Hun Lee, Yun-Seong Lee, Jin-O Kim

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Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is one of most widely used methods in the modern power system to schedule a maintenance cycle and determine the priority of inspection. In order to apply the RCM method to the Smart Grid, a precedence study for the new structure of rearranged system should be performed due to introduction of additional installation such as renewable and sustainable energy resources, energy storage devices and advanced metering infrastructure. This paper proposes a new method to evaluate the priority of maintenance and inspection of the power system facilities in the Smart Grid using the Risk Priority Number. In order to calculate that risk index, it is required that the reliability block diagram should be analyzed for the Smart Grid system. Finally, the feasible technical method is discussed to estimate the risk potential as part of the RCM procedure.

Keywords: Expert System, FMECA, Fuzzy Theory, Reliability Centered Maintenance, Risk Priority Number

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Authors: Tomáš Seidler, Marek Mihola, Denisa Cihlarova

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The article presents analysis results of maps of expected subsidence in undermined areas for road repair management. The analysis was done in the area of Karvina district in the Czech Republic, including undermined areas with ongoing deep mining activities or finished deep mining in years 2003 - 2009. The article discusses the possibilities of local road maintenance authorities to determine areas that will need most repairs in the future with limited data available. Using the expected subsidence maps new map of surface curvature was calculated. Combined with road maps and historical data about repairs the result came for five main categories of undermined areas, proving very simple tool for management.

Keywords: GIS, Map of Subsidence, Road, Undermined Area

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Authors: Prem Singh, Jagdeep Singh

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In an attempt to investigate the performance of single basin solar still for climate conditions of Ludhiana a single basin solar still was designed, fabricated and tested. The energy balance equations for various parts of the still are solved by Gauss-Seidel iteration method. Computer model was made and experimentally validated. The validated computer model was used to estimate the annual distillation yield and performance ratio of the still for Ludhiana. The Theoretical and experimental distillation yield were 4318.79 ml and 3850 ml respectively for the typical day. The predicted distillation yield was 12.5% higher than the experimental yield. The annual distillation yield per square metre aperture area and annual performance ratio for single basin solar still is 1095 litres and 0.43 respectively. The payback period for micro-stepped solar still is 2.5 years.

Keywords: Solar distillation, solar still, single basin, still.

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Authors: E. Ardil, Erdem Uçar, Parvinder S. Sandhu

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As the majority of faults are found in a few of its modules so there is a need to investigate the modules that are affected severely as compared to other modules and proper maintenance need to be done on time especially for the critical applications. In this paper, we have explored the different predictor models to NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in Perl programming language. Different machine learning algorithms belonging to the different learner categories of the WEKA project including Mamdani Based Fuzzy Inference System and Neuro-fuzzy based system have been evaluated for the modeling of maintenance severity or impact of fault severity. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provides relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the maintenance severity prediction of the software.

Keywords: Software Metrics, Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy, SoftwareFaults, Accuracy, MAE, RMSE.

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Authors: George Cristian Gruia, Michal Kavan

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The article describes a case study on one of Czech Republic-s manufacturing middle size enterprises (ME), where due to the European financial crisis, production lines had to be redesigned and optimized in order to minimize the total costs of the production of goods. It is considered an optimization problem of minimizing the total cost of the work load, according to the costs of the possible locations of the workplaces, with an application of the Greedy algorithm and a partial analogy to a Set Packing Problem. The displacement of working tables in a company should be as a one-toone monotone increasing function in order for the total costs of production of the goods to be at minimum. We use a heuristic approach with greedy algorithm for solving this linear optimization problem, regardless the possible greediness which may appear and we apply it in a Czech ME.

Keywords: Czech, greedy algorithm, minimize, total costs.

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Authors: Ainul Akmar Mokhtar, Masdi Muhammad, Hilmi Hussin, Mohd Amin Abdul Majid

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A reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) model has been built for acid gas removal plant for system analysis that will play an important role in any process modifications, if required, for achieving its optimum performance. Due to the complexity of the plant, the model was based on a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) with a Monte Carlo simulation engine. The model has been validated against actual plant data as well as local expert opinions, resulting in an acceptable simulation model. The results from the model showed that the operation and maintenance can be further improved, resulting in reduction of the annual production loss.

Keywords: Acid gas removal plant, RAM model, Reliabilityblock diagram

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Authors: S. B. Jaju, R. R. Lakhe

Abstract:

Quality costs are the costs associated with preventing, finding, and correcting defective work. Since the main language of corporate management is money, quality-related costs act as means of communication between the staff of quality engineering departments and the company managers. The objective of quality engineering is to minimize the total quality cost across the life of product. Quality costs provide a benchmark against which improvement can be measured over time. It provides a rupee-based report on quality improvement efforts. It is an effective tool to identify, prioritize and select quality improvement projects. After reviewing through the literature it was noticed that a simplified methodology for data collection of quality cost in a manufacturing industry was required. The quantified standard methodology is proposed for collecting data of various elements of quality cost categories for manufacturing industry. Also in the light of research carried out so far, it is felt necessary to standardise cost elements in each of the prevention, appraisal, internal failure and external failure costs. . Here an attempt is made to standardise the various cost elements applicable to manufacturing industry and data is collected by using the proposed quantified methodology. This paper discusses the case study carried in luggage manufacturing industry.

Keywords: Quality Costs, PAF model, quantified methodology, Case study.

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Authors: A. Gandomkar, R. Dehghani

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Climate change is a phenomenon has been based on the available evidence from a very long time ago and now its existence is very probable. The speed and nature of climate parameters changes at the middle of twentieth century has been different and its quickness more than the before and its trend changed to some extent comparing to the past. Climate change issue now regarded as not only one of the most common scientific topic but also a social political one, is not a new issue. Climate change is a complicated atmospheric oceanic phenomenon on a global scale and long-term. Precipitation pattern change, fast decrease of snowcovered resources and its rapid melting, increased evaporation, the occurrence of destroying floods, water shortage crisis, severe reduction at the rate of harvesting agricultural products and, so on are all the significant of climate change. To cope with this phenomenon, its consequences and events in which public instruction is the most important but it may be climate that no significant cant and effective action has been done so far. The present article is included a part of one surrey about climate change in Fars. The study area having annually mean temperature 14 and precipitation 320 mm .23 stations inside the basin with a common 37 year statistical period have been applied to the meteorology data (1974-2010). Man-kendal and change factor methods are two statistical methods, applying them, the trend of changes and the annual mean average temperature and the annual minimum mean temperature were studied by using them. Based on time series for each parameter, the annual mean average temperature and the mean of annual maximum temperature have a rising trend so that this trend is clearer to the mean of annual maximum temperature.

Keywords: Climate change, Coefficient Variation, Fars province, Man-Kendal method.

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Authors: Z. Karakus, Z. Ozer

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Nurses are responsible for the care and treatment of individuals, as well as health maintenance and education. Medication administration is an important part of health promotion. The administration of a medicine is a common but important clinical procedure for nurses because of its complex structure. Therefore, medication errors are inevitable for nurses or nursing students. Medication errors can cause ineffective treatment, patient’s prolonged hospital stay, disablement or death. Additionally, medication errors affect the global economy adversely by increasing health costs. Hence, preventing or decreasing of medication errors is a critical and essential issue in nursing. Nurse educators are in pursuit of new teaching methods to teach students significance of medication application. In the light of technological developments of this age, e-learning has started to be accepted as an important teaching method. E-learning is the use of electronic media and information and communication technologies in education. It has advantages such as flexibility of time and place, lower costs, faster delivery and lower environmental impact. Students can make their own schedule and decide the learning method. This study is conducted to determine the impact of e-learning on medication administration of nursing students.

Keywords: E-Learning, Medication Administration, Nursing, Nursing Students.

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Authors: Wei Chen, Cui-you Yao, Yue Qiu

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This paper deals with a portfolio selection problem based on the possibility theory under the assumption that the returns of assets are LR-type fuzzy numbers. A possibilistic portfolio model with transaction costs is proposed, in which the possibilistic mean value of the return is termed measure of investment return, and the possibilistic variance of the return is termed measure of investment risk. Due to considering transaction costs, the existing traditional optimization algorithms usually fail to find the optimal solution efficiently and heuristic algorithms can be the best method. Therefore, a particle swarm optimization is designed to solve the corresponding optimization problem. At last, a numerical example is given to illustrate our proposed effective means and approaches.

Keywords: Possibility theory, portfolio selection, transaction costs, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: Ya-Fen Lee, Yun-Yao Chi

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This paper aims to quantify the impact of natural disaster on tourism by the change of annual visitors to scenic spots. The data of visitors to Alishan, Sun Moon Lake, Sitou and Palace Museum in Taiwan during 1986 to 2012 year is collected, and the trend analysis is used to predict the annual visitors to these scenic spots. The findings show that 1999 Taiwan earthquake had significant effect on the visitors to Alishan, Sun Moon Lake and Sitou with an average impact of 55.75% during 1999 to 2000 year except for Palace Museum. The impact was greater as closer epicenter of 1999 earthquake. And the discovery period of visitors is about 2 to 9 years. Further, the impact of heavy rainfall on Alishan, Taiwan is estimated. As the accumulative rainfall reaches to 500 mm, the impact on visitors can be predicted. 

Keywords: Impact, Natural disaster, tourism, visitors.

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Authors: Dragan D. Stamenkovic, Vladimir M. Popovic

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Warranty is a powerful marketing tool for the manufacturer and a good protection for both the manufacturer and the customer. However, warranty always involves additional costs to the manufacturer, which depend on product reliability characteristics and warranty parameters. This paper presents an approach to optimisation of warranty parameters for known product failure distribution to reduce the warranty costs to the manufacturer while retaining the promotional function of the warranty. Combination free replacement and pro-rata warranty policy is chosen as a model and the length of free replacement period and pro-rata policy period are varied, as well as the coefficients that define the pro-rata cost function. Multiparametric warranty optimisation is done by using genetic algorithm. Obtained results are guideline for the manufacturer to choose the warranty policy that minimises the costs and maximises the profit.

Keywords: costs, genetic algorithm, optimisation, warranty.

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Authors: Pei-Hsing Huang, Wei-Ju Huang

Abstract:

Investment casting is commonly used in the production of metallic components with complex shapes, due to its high dimensional precision, good surface finish, and low cost. However, the process is cumbersome, and the period between trial casting and final production can be very long, thereby limiting business opportunities and competitiveness. In this study, we replaced conventional wax injection with stereolithography (SLA) 3D printing to speed up the trial process and reduce costs. We also used silicone molds to further reduce costs to avoid the high costs imposed by photosensitive resin.

Keywords: Investment casting, stereolithography, wax molding, 3D printing.

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Authors: A. Alseiari, P. Farrell

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Maintenance has evolved into an imperative function, and contributes significantly to efficient and effective equipment performance. Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) is an ideal approach to support the development and implementation of operation performance improvement. It systematically aims to understand the function of equipment, the service quality relationship with equipment and the probable critical equipment failure conditions. Implementation of TPM programmes need strategic planning and there has been little research applied in this area within Middle-East power plants. In the power sector of Abu Dhabi, technologically and strategically, the power industry is extremely important, and it thus needs effective and efficient equipment management support. The aim of this paper is to investigate barriers to successful TPM implementation in the Abu Dhabi power industry. The study has been conducted in the context of a leading power company in the UAE. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 16 employees, including maintenance and operation staff, and senior managers. The findings of this research identified seven key barriers, thus: managerial; organisational; cultural; financial; educational; communications; and auditing. With respect to the understanding of these barriers and obstacles in TPM implementation, the findings can contribute towards improved equipment operations and maintenance in power organisations.

Keywords: Abu Dhabi power industry, TPM implementation, key barriers, organisational culture, critical success factors.

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Authors: Jing Zhang, Lian Wu, Jie-ming Qu, Chun-xue Bai, Mervyn J Merrilees, Peter N Black

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COPD is characterized by loss of elastic fibers from small airways and alveolar walls, with the decrease in elastin increasing with disease severity. It is unclear why there is a lack of repair of elastic fibers. We have examined fibroblasts cultured from lung tissue from normal and COPD subjects to determine if the secretory profile explains lack of tissue repair. In this study, fibroblasts were cultured from lung parenchyma of bronchial carcinoma patients with varying degrees of COPD; controls (non-COPD, n=5), mild COPD (GOLD 1, n=5) and moderate-severe COPD (GOLD 2-3, n=12). Measurements were made of proliferation, senescence-associated beta-galactosidase-1, mRNA expression of IL-6, IL-8, MMP-1, tropoelastin and versican, and protein levels for IL-6, IL-8, PGE2, tropoelastin, insoluble elastin, and versican. It was found that GOLD 2-3 fibroblasts proliferated more slowly (p<0.01) and had higher levels of senescence-associated beta-galactosidase-1 (p<0.001) than controls (non-COPD). GOLD 2-3 fibroblasts showed significant increases in mRNA and/or protein for IL-6, IL-8, MMP-1, PGE2, versican (p<0.01) and tropoelastin (p<0.05). mRNA expression and/or protein levels of tropoelastin (p<0.01), versican (p<0.02), IL-6 (p<0.05) and IL-8 (p<0.05) were negatively correlated with FEV1%. Insoluble elastin was not increased. In summary, fibroblasts from moderate to severe COPD subjects display a secretory phenotype with up-regulation of inflammatory molecules including the matrix proteoglycan versican, and increased soluble, but not insoluble, elastin. Versican inhibits assembly of tropoelastin into insoluble elastin and we conclude that the pro-inflammatory phenotype of COPD fibroblasts it is not compatible with repair elastic fibers.

Keywords: COPD, pulmonary fibroblasts, pro-inflammatory phenotype, versican, elastin

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Authors: Nang Saw Yuzana Kya ing, Wunna Swe

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Photovoltaic (PV) systems provides a viable means of power generation for applications like powering residential appliances, electrification of villages in rural areas, refrigeration and water pumping. Photovoltaic-power generation is reliable. The operation and maintenance costs are very low. Since Myanmar is a land of plentiful sunshine, especially in central and southern regions of the country, the solar energy could hopefully become the final solution to its energy supply problem in rural area.

Keywords: Myanmar, Standalone PV Inverter, PV WaterPumping, Design Analysis, Induction Motor Driving System

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Authors: Toshimi Munehira

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In order to optimize annual IT spending and to reduce the complexity of an entire system architecture, SOA trials have been started. It is common knowledge that to design an SOA system we have to adopt the top-down approach, but in reality silo systems are being made, so these companies cannot reuse newly designed services, and cannot enjoy SOA-s economic benefits. To prevent this situation, we designed a generic SOA development process referred to as the architecture of “mass customization." To define the generic detail development processes, we did a case study on an imaginary company. Through the case study, we could define the practical development processes and found this could vastly reduce updating development costs.

Keywords: SOA, BPM, Generic Model, MassCustomization

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Authors: Magdi M. E. Zumrawi

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It is quite essential to investigate the causes of pavement deterioration in order to select the proper maintenance technique. The objective of this study was to identify factors cause deterioration of recently constructed roads in Khartoum state. A comprehensive literature concerning the factors of road deterioration, common road defects and their causes were reviewed. Three major road projects with different deterioration reasons were selected for this study. The investigation involved field survey and laboratory testing on those projects to examine the existing pavement conditions. The results revealed that the roads investigated experienced severe failures in the forms of cracks, potholes, and rutting in the wheel path. The causes of those failures were found mainly linked to poor drainage, traffic overloading, expansive subgrade soils, and the use of low quality materials in construction. Based on the results, recommendations were provided to help highway engineers in selecting the most effective repair techniques for specific kinds of distresses.

Keywords: Pavement, deterioration, causes, failures.

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Authors: Mehmet Savsar

Abstract:

Reliability and availability of power stations are extremely important in order to achieve a required level of power generation. In particular, in the hot desert climate of Kuwait, reliable power generation is extremely important because of cooling requirements at temperatures exceeding 50-centigrade degrees. In this paper, a particular power plant, named Sabiya Power Plant, which has 8 steam turbines and 13 gas turbine stations, has been studied in detail; extensive data are collected; and availability of station units are determined. Furthermore, a simulation model is developed and used to analyze the effects of different maintenance policies on availability of these stations. The results show that significant improvements can be achieved in power plant availabilities if appropriate maintenance policies are implemented.

Keywords: Power plants, steam turbines, gas turbines, maintenance, availability, simulation.

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Authors: P. Novosad, L. Osuska, M. Tazky, T. Tazky

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Current trends in the building industry are oriented towards the reduction of maintenance costs and the ecological benefits of buildings or building materials. Surface treatment of building materials with photocatalytic active titanium dioxide added into concrete can offer a good solution in this context. Architectural concrete has one disadvantage – dust and fouling keep settling on its surface, diminishing its aesthetic value and increasing maintenance e costs. Concrete surface – silicate material with open porosity – fulfils the conditions of effective photocatalysis, in particular, the self-cleaning properties of surfaces. This modern material is advantageous in particular for direct finishing and architectural concrete applications. If photoactive titanium dioxide is part of the top layers of road concrete on busy roads and the facades of the buildings surrounding these roads, exhaust fumes can be degraded with the aid of sunshine; hence, environmental load will decrease. It is clear that options for removing pollutants like nitrogen oxides (NOx) must be found. Not only do these gases present a health risk, they also cause the degradation of the surfaces of concrete structures. The photocatalytic properties of titanium dioxide can in the long term contribute to the enhanced appearance of surface layers and eliminate harmful pollutants dispersed in the air, and facilitate the conversion of pollutants into less toxic forms (e.g., NOx to HNO₃). This paper describes verification of the photocatalytic properties of titanium dioxide and presents the results of mechanical and physical tests on samples of architectural lightweight self-compacting concretes (LWSCC). The very essence of the use of LWSCC is their rheological ability to seep into otherwise extremely hard accessible or inaccessible construction areas, or sections thereof where concrete compacting will be a problem, or where vibration is completely excluded. They are also able to create a solid monolithic element with a large variety of shapes; the concrete will at the same meet the requirements of both chemical aggression and the influences of the surrounding environment. Due to their viscosity, LWSCCs are able to imprint the formwork elements into their structure and thus create high quality lightweight architectural concretes.

Keywords: Photocatalytic concretes, titanium dioxide, architectural concretes, LWSCC.

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Authors: M. Khatami Rad, N. Jamali, M. Torabizadeh, A. Noshadi

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In this paper, an artificial neural network simulator is employed to carry out diagnosis and prognosis on electric motor as rotating machinery based on predictive maintenance. Vibration data of the primary failed motor including unbalance, misalignment and bearing fault were collected for training the neural network. Neural network training was performed for a variety of inputs and the motor condition was used as the expert training information. The main purpose of applying the neural network as an expert system was to detect the type of failure and applying preventive maintenance. The advantage of this study is for machinery Industries by providing appropriate maintenance that has an essential activity to keep the production process going at all processes in the machinery industry. Proper maintenance is pivotal in order to prevent the possible failures in operating system and increase the availability and effectiveness of a system by analyzing vibration monitoring and developing expert system.

Keywords: Condition based monitoring, expert system, neural network, fault detection, vibration monitoring.

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Authors: S. Dehghan, B. Kiani, A. Kazemi, A. Parizad

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The utilization of renewable energy sources in electric power systems is increasing quickly because of public apprehensions for unpleasant environmental impacts and increase in the energy costs involved with the use of conventional energy sources. Despite the application of these energy sources can considerably diminish the system fuel costs, they can also have significant influence on the system reliability. Therefore an appropriate combination of the system reliability indices level and capital investment costs of system is vital. This paper presents a hybrid wind/photovoltaic plant, with the aim of supplying IEEE reliability test system load pattern while the plant capital investment costs is minimized by applying a hybrid particle swarm optimization (PSO) / harmony search (HS) approach, and the system fulfills the appropriate level of reliability.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, Fuel Cell, HS, Hybrid Power Plant, PSO, Photovoltaic, Reliability.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River.

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Authors: Antonis Sideris, Elias Chlis Kalogeropoulos, Konstantia Moirogiorgou

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The present study proposes a methodology for the efficient daily management of fleet vehicles and construction machinery. The application covers the area of remote monitoring of heavy-duty vehicles operation parameters, where specific sensor data are stored and examined in order to provide information about the vehicle’s health. The vehicle diagnostics allow the user to inspect whether maintenance tasks need to be performed before a fault occurs. A properly designed machine learning model is proposed for the detection of two different types of faults through classification. Cross validation is used and the accuracy of the trained model is checked with the confusion matrix.

Keywords: Fault detection, feature selection, machine learning, predictive maintenance.

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Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis, Akram Khaleghei G.B.

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In this paper, we present a maintenance model of a two-unit series system with economic dependence. Unit#1 which is considered to be more expensive and more important, is subject to condition monitoring (CM) at equidistant, discrete time epochs and unit#2, which is not subject to CM has a general lifetime distribution. The multivariate observation vectors obtained through condition monitoring carry partial information about the hidden state of unit#1, which can be in a healthy or a warning state while operating. Only the failure state is assumed to be observable for both units. The objective is to find an optimal opportunistic maintenance policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the partially observable semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm for finding the optimal policy and the minimum average cost is developed, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Condition-Based Maintenance, Semi-Markov Decision Process, Multivariate Bayesian Control Chart, Partially Observable System, Two-unit System.

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Authors: B. Fahimnia, L.H.S. Luong, R. M. Marian

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The Aggregate Production Plan (APP) is a schedule of the organization-s overall operations over a planning horizon to satisfy demand while minimizing costs. It is the baseline for any further planning and formulating the master production scheduling, resources, capacity and raw material planning. This paper presents a methodology to model the Aggregate Production Planning problem, which is combinatorial in nature, when optimized with Genetic Algorithms. This is done considering a multitude of constraints of contradictory nature and the optimization criterion – overall cost, made up of costs with production, work force, inventory, and subcontracting. A case study of substantial size, used to develop the model, is presented, along with the genetic operators.

Keywords: Aggregate Production Planning, Costs, and Optimization.

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Authors: M. Irannezhad, E. H. N. Gashti, S. Mohammadighavam, M. Zarrini, B. Kløve

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Climate warming would increase rainfall by shifting precipitation falling form from snow to rain, and would accelerate snow cover disappearing by increasing snowpack. Using temperature and precipitation data in the temperature-index snowmelt model, we evaluated variability of snowfall and continuous snow cover duration (CSCD) during 1944-2010 over Pelso, central Finland. Mann- Kendall non-parametric test determined that annual precipitation increased by 2.69 (mm/year, p<0.05) during the study period, but no clear trend in annual temperature. Both annual rainfall and snowfall increased by 1.67 and 0.78 (mm/year, p<0.05), respectively. CSCD was generally about 205 days from 14 October to 6 May. No clear trend was found in CSCD over Pelso. Spearman’s rank correlation showed most significant relationships of annual snowfall with the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, and CSCD with the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) pattern. Increased precipitation with no warming temperature caused the rainfall and snowfall to increase, while no effects on CSCD.

Keywords: Variations, snowfall, snow cover duration, temperature-index snowmelt model, teleconnection patterns.

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