Search results for: Numerical probability modeling

Authors: L. Hammadi, D. Boukhaloua

Abstract:

In this study, a numerical model was developed to predict cavitation phenomena around a NACA0009 profile. The equations of the Rayleigh-Plesset and modified Rayleigh-Plesset are used to modeling the cavitation by bubble around a NACA0009 profile. The study shows that the distributions of pressures around extrados and intrados of profile for angle of incidence equal zero are the same. The study also shows that the increase in the angle of incidence makes it possible to differentiate the pressures on the intrados and the extrados.

Keywords: Cavitation, NACA0009 profile, flow, pressure coefficient.

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

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Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: Dam, failure, limit-state, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, Taylor.

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Authors: S. Rajabi, M. ArdebiliPoor, M. Shahabadi

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In this paper we propose a method for modeling the correlation between the received signals by two or more antennas operating in a multipath environment. Considering the maximum excess delay in the channel being modeled, an elliptical region surrounding both transmitter and receiver antennas is produced. A number of scatterers are randomly distributed in this region and scatter the incoming waves. The amplitude and phase of incoming waves are computed and used to obtain statistical properties of the received signals. This model has the distinguishable advantage of being applicable for any configuration of antennas. Furthermore the common PDF (Probability Distribution Function) of received wave amplitudes for any pair of antennas can be calculated and used to produce statistical parameters of received signals.

Keywords: MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output), SIMO (Single Input Multiple Output), GBSBEM (Geometrically Based Single Bounce Elliptical Model).

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Authors: M. Shahrokhi, F. Rostami, M.A. Md Said, S. Syafalni

Abstract:

It is essential to have a uniform and calm flow field for a settling tank to have high performance. In general, the recirculation zones always occurred in sedimentation tanks. The presence of these regions may have different effects. The nonuniformity of the velocity field, the short-circuiting at the surface and the motion of the jet at the bed of the tank that occurs because of the recirculation in the sedimentation layer, are affected by the geometry of the tank. There are some ways to decrease the size of these dead zones, which would increase the performance. One of the ways is to use a suitable baffle configuration. In this study, the presence of baffle with different position has been investigated by a finite volume method, with VOF (Volume of Fluid) model. Besides, the k-ε turbulence model is used in the numerical calculations. The results indicate that the best position of the baffle is obtained when the volume of the recirculation region is minimized or is divided to smaller part and the flow field trend to be uniform in the settling zone.

Keywords: Sedimentation tanks, Baffle, Numerical Modeling, VOF, Circulation Zone

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Authors: Ziaddin Daie Koozekanani, Mina Zolfy Lighvan

Abstract:

One of the most challengeable issues in ESL (Electronic System Level) design is the lack of a general modeling scheme for on chip communication architecture. In this paper some of the mostly used methodologies for modeling and representation of on chip communication are investigated. Our goal is studying the existing methods to extract the requirements of a general representation scheme for communication architecture synthesis. The next step, will be introducing a modeling and representation method for being used in automatically synthesis process of on chip communication architecture.

Keywords: Communication architecture, System on Chip, Communication Modeling and Representation

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Authors: Aliakbar Golshani, Seyyed Mehdi Poorhashemi, Mahsa Gharizadeh

Abstract:

The under passing tunnels are strongly influenced by the soils around. There are some complexities in the specification of real soil behavior, owing to the fact that lots of uncertainties exist in soil properties, and additionally, inappropriate soil constitutive models. Such mentioned factors may cause incompatible settlements in numerical analysis with the obtained values in actual construction. This paper aims to report a case study on a specific tunnel constructed by NATM. The tunnel has a depth of 11.4 m, height of 12.2 m, and width of 14.4 m with 2.5 lanes. The numerical modeling was based on a 2D finite element program. The soil material behavior was modeled by hardening soil model. According to the field observations, the numerical estimated settlement at the ground surface was approximately four times more than the measured one, after the entire installation of the initial lining, indicating that some unknown factors affect the values. Consequently, the geotechnical parameters are accurately revised by a numerical back-analysis using laboratory and field test data and based on the obtained monitoring data. The obtained result confirms that typically, the soil parameters are conservatively low-estimated. And additionally, the constitutive models cannot be applied properly for all soil conditions.

Keywords: NATM tunnel, initial lining, field test data, laboratory test data, monitoring data, numerical back-analysis.

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Authors: Mahmoud Zarrini

Abstract:

Avalanche release of snow has been modeled in the present studies. Snow is assumed to be represented by semi-solid and the governing equations have been studied from the concept of continuum approach. The dynamical equations have been solved for two different zones [starting zone and track zone] by using appropriate initial and boundary conditions. Effect of density (ρ), Eddy viscosity (η), Slope angle (θ), Slab depth (R) on the flow parameters have been observed in the present studies. Numerical methods have been employed for computing the non linear differential equations. One of the most interesting and fundamental innovation in the present studies is getting initial condition for the computation of velocity by numerical approach. This information of the velocity has obtained through the concept of fracture mechanics applicable to snow. The results on the flow parameters have found to be in qualitative agreement with the published results.

Keywords: Snow avalanche, fracture mechanics, avalanche velocity, avalanche zones.

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Authors: M. Mahdi, N. Shariatmadari

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An important aspect of planning for shallow tunneling under urban areas is the determination of likely surface movements and interaction with existing structures. Back analysis of built tunnels that their settlements magnitude is available, could aid the designers to have a more accuracy in future projects.

In this paper, one single Tehran Metro Tunnel (at west of Hor square, Jang University Street) was selected. At first, surface settlements of this tunnel were measured in situ. Then this tunnel was modeled using the commercial finite deference software FLAC-3D. Finally, Results of modeling and in situ measurements compared for verification.

Keywords: Shallow Tunnel, Back Analysis, Surface Movement, Numerical Modeling.

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Authors: Charles D. Otine, Samuel B. Kucel, Lena Trojer

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Selecting the data modeling technique for an information system is determined by the objective of the resultant data model. Dimensional modeling is the preferred modeling technique for data destined for data warehouses and data mining, presenting data models that ease analysis and queries which are in contrast with entity relationship modeling. The establishment of data warehouses as components of information system landscapes in many organizations has subsequently led to the development of dimensional modeling. This has been significantly more developed and reported for the commercial database management systems as compared to the open sources thereby making it less affordable for those in resource constrained settings. This paper presents dimensional modeling of HIV patient information using open source modeling tools. It aims to take advantage of the fact that the most affected regions by the HIV virus are also heavily resource constrained (sub-Saharan Africa) whereas having large quantities of HIV data. Two HIV data source systems were studied to identify appropriate dimensions and facts these were then modeled using two open source dimensional modeling tools. Use of open source would reduce the software costs for dimensional modeling and in turn make data warehousing and data mining more feasible even for those in resource constrained settings but with data available.

Keywords: About Database, Data Mining, Data warehouse, Dimensional Modeling, Open Source.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh river, log pearson type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares.

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Authors: Sa-aat Niwitpong

Abstract:

Recent articles have addressed the problem to construct the confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution where the parameter space is restricted, see for example Wang [Confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution with restricted parameter space. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Vol. 78, No. 9, 2008, 829–841.], we derived, in this paper, analytic expressions of the coverage probability and the expected length of confidence interval for the normal mean when the whole parameter space is bounded. We also construct the confidence interval for the normal variance with restricted parameter for the first time and its coverage probability and expected length are also mathematically derived. As a result, one can use these criteria to assess the confidence interval for the normal mean and variance when the parameter space is restricted without the back up from simulation experiments.

Keywords: Confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, restricted parameter space.

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Authors: S. Saadi, S. Benissaad, S. Poncet, Y. Kabar

Abstract:

In photovoltaic (PV) cells, most of the absorbed solar radiation cannot be converted into electricity. A large amount of solar radiation is converted to heat, which should be dissipated by any cooling techniques. In the present study, the cooling is achieved by inserting triangular ribs in the duct. A comprehensive two-dimensional thermo-fluid model for the effective cooling of PV cells has been developed. It has been first carefully validated against experimental and numerical results available in the literature. A parametric analysis was then carried out about the influence of the number and size of the ribs, wind speed, solar irradiance and inlet fluid velocity on the average solar cell and outlet air temperatures as well as the thermal and electrical efficiencies of the module. Results indicated that the use of triangular ribbed channels is a very effective cooling technique, which significantly reduces the average temperature of the PV cell, especially when increasing the number of ribs.

Keywords: Effective cooling, numerical modeling, photovoltaic cell, triangular ribs.

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Authors: A. A. Jafari, A. M. Khoshnood, J. Roshanian

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Attitude control of aerospace system with liquid containers may face to a problem associate with fuel sloshing. The sloshing phenomena can degrade the stability of control system and in the worst case, interaction between the attitude control system and fuel vibration leading to resonance. In this paper, a full process of nonlinear dynamic modeling of an aerospace launch vehicle with fuel sloshing is given. Then, a new control system based on model reference adaptive filter is proposed and its algorithm is extracted. This controller implemented on the main attitude control system. Finally, numerical simulation of nonlinear model and control system is carried out to examine the performance of the new controller. Results of simulations show that the inconvenient effects of the fuel sloshing by augmenting this control system are reduced and attitude control system performs, satisfactorily.

Keywords: nonlinear dynamic modeling, fuel sloshing, vibration control, model reference, adaptive filter

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar

Abstract:

Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a holistic documentation process for operational visualization, design coordination, estimation and project scheduling. BIM software defines objects parametrically and it is a tool for virtual reality. Primary advantage of implementing BIM is the visual coordination of the building structure and systems such as Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing (MEP) and it also identifies the possible conflicts between the building systems. This paper is an attempt to develop a risk based BIM model which would highlight the primary advantages of application of BIM pertaining to urban infrastructure transportation project. It has been observed that about 40% of the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) companies use BIM but primarily for their outsourced projects. Also, 65% of the respondents agree that BIM would be used quiet strongly for future construction projects in India. The 3D models developed with Revit 2015 software would reduce co-ordination problems amongst the architects, structural engineers, contractors and building service providers (MEP). Integration of risk management along with BIM would provide enhanced co-ordination, collaboration and high probability of successful completion of the complex infrastructure transportation project within stipulated time and cost frame.

Keywords: Building information modeling (BIM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail.

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Authors: Gun Yung Go, Man Young Kim

Abstract:

Worldwide interests for the renewable energy are increasing due to environmental and climate changes from traditional petroleum related energy sources. To account for these social needs, ligneous biomass energy is considered as one of the environmentally friend energy solutions. The wood torrefaction process is a feasible method to improve the properties of the biomass fuel and makes the wood have low moisture, lower smoke emission and increased heating value. In this work, therefore, the moisture evaporation model which largely affects energy efficiency of ligneous biomass through moisture contents and heating value relative to its weight is studied with numerical modeling approach by analyzing the effects of torrefaction furnace temperature. The results show that the temperature and moisture fraction of wood decrease by increasing the furnace temperature. When the torrefaction temperature is lower than 423K, there were little changes of the moisture fraction in the wood. Also, it can be found that charcoal is produced more slowly when the torrefaction temperature is lower than 573K.

Keywords: Modeling, Torrefaction, Biomass, Moisture Fraction, Charcoal.

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

Abstract:

Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.

Keywords: Gediz Basin, goodness-of-fit tests, Minimum flows, probability distribution.

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

Abstract:

Model updating method has received increasing attention in damage detection structures based on measured modal parameters. Therefore, a probability-based damage detection (PBDD) procedure based on a model updating procedure is presented in this paper, in which a one-stage model-based damage identification technique based on the dynamic features of a structure is investigated. The presented framework uses a finite element updating method with a Monte Carlo simulation that considers the uncertainty caused by measurement noise. Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) is used as the main algorithm for model updating. Ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM) is a multiagent algorithm based on the ideal gas molecular movement. Ideal gas molecules disperse rapidly in different directions and cover all the space inside. This is embedded in the high speed of molecules, collisions between them and with the surrounding barriers. In IGMM algorithm to accomplish the optimal solutions, the initial population of gas molecules is randomly generated and the governing equations related to the velocity of gas molecules and collisions between those are utilized. In this paper, an enhanced version of IGMM, which removes unchanged variables after specified iterations, is developed. The proposed method is implemented on two numerical examples in the field of structural damage detection. The results show that the proposed method can perform well and competitive in PBDD of structures.

Keywords: Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement, ideal gas molecular movement, model updating method, probability-based damage detection, uncertainty quantification.

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Authors: Wang Wen-long, Li Hua, Pan Sha

Abstract:

Eight difference schemes and five limiters are applied to numerical computation of Riemann problem. The resolution of discontinuities of each scheme produced is compared. Numerical dissipation and its estimation are discussed. The result shows that the numerical dissipation of each scheme is vital to improve scheme-s accuracy and stability. MUSCL methodology is an effective approach to increase computational efficiency and resolution. Limiter should be selected appropriately by balancing compressive and diffusive performance.

Keywords: Scheme; Limiter, Numerical simulation, Riemannproblem.

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Authors: N. Gigauri, A. Surmava

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According to observational data, experimental measurements and numerical modelling, the pollution of one of the industrial centers of Georgia, Rustavi City’s atmosphere with micro aerosols are assessed. Monthly, daily and hourly changes of the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 in the city atmosphere are analyzed. It is accepted that PM2.5 concentrations are always lower than PM10 concentrations, but their change curve is the same. In addition, it has been noted that the maximum concentrations of particles in the atmosphere of Rustavi city will be reached at any part of the day, which is determined by the total impact of the traffic flow and industrial facilities. Through numerical modelling, the influence of background western light air, gentle and fresh breeze on the distribution of particulate matter in the atmosphere was calculated. Calculations showed that background light air and gentle breeze lead to an increase the concentrations of microaerosols in the city's atmosphere, while fresh breeze contributes to the dispersion of dusty clouds. As a result, the level of dust in the city is decreasing, but the distribution area is expanding.

Keywords: Air pollution, numerical modeling, experimental measurement, PM2.5, PM10.

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Authors: Jaime Martín-de-Nicolás, David Mata-Moya, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores

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Ship detection is nowadays quite an important issue in tasks related to sea traffic control, fishery management and ship search and rescue. Although it has traditionally been carried out by patrol ships or aircrafts, coverage and weather conditions and sea state can become a problem. Synthetic aperture radars can surpass these coverage limitations and work under any climatological condition. A fast CFAR ship detector based on a robust statistical modeling of sea clutter with respect to sea states in SAR images is used. In this paper, the minimum SNR required to obtain a given detection probability with a given false alarm rate for any sea state is determined. A Gaussian target model using real SAR data is considered. Results show that SNR does not depend heavily on the class considered. Provided there is some variation in the backscattering of targets in SAR imagery, the detection probability is limited and a post-processing stage based on morphology would be suitable.

Keywords: SAR, generalized gamma distribution, detection curves, radar detection.

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Authors: Carla E. O. de Moraes, Gladson O. Antunes, Mauro A. Rincon

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The aim of this paper is to study the internal stabilization of the Bernoulli-Euler equation numerically. For this, we consider a square plate subjected to a feedback/damping force distributed only in a subdomain. An algorithm for obtaining an approximate solution to this problem was proposed and implemented. The numerical method used was the Finite Difference Method. Numerical simulations were performed and showed the behavior of the solution, confirming the theoretical results that have already been proved in the literature. In addition, we studied the validation of the numerical scheme proposed, followed by an analysis of the numerical error; and we conducted a study on the decay of the energy associated.

Keywords: Bernoulli-Euler Plate Equation, Numerical Simulations, Stability, Energy Decay, Finite Difference Method.

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Authors: Bilal Barakeh

Abstract:

In this paper we discuss the effect of unbounded particle interaction operator on particle growth and we study how this can address the choice of appropriate time steps of the numerical simulation. We provide also rigorous mathematical proofs showing that large particles become dominating with increasing time while small particles contribute negligibly. Second, we discuss the efficiency of the algorithm by performing numerical simulations tests and by comparing the simulated solutions with some known analytic solutions to the Smoluchowski equation.

Keywords: Stochastic processes, coagulation of particles, numerical scheme.

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Authors: Saemee Jun, Dong-Hyeon Shin, Tae-Sang Ahn, Hyung-Joon Kim

Abstract:

Building loss estimation methodologies which have been advanced considerably in recent decades are usually used to estimate socio and economic impacts resulting from seismic structural damage. In accordance with these methods, this paper presents the evaluation of an annual loss probability of a reinforced concrete moment resisting frame designed according to Korean Building Code. The annual loss probability is defined by (1) a fragility curve obtained from a capacity spectrum method which is similar to a method adopted from HAZUS, and (2) a seismic hazard curve derived from annual frequencies of exceedance per peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragilities are computed to calculate the annual loss probability of a certain structure using functions depending on structural capacity, seismic demand, structural response and the probability of exceeding damage state thresholds. This study carried out a nonlinear static analysis to obtain the capacity of a RC moment resisting frame selected as a prototype building. The analysis results show that the probability of being extensive structural damage in the prototype building is expected to 0.01% in a year.

Keywords: Expected annual loss, Loss estimation, RC structure, Fragility analysis.

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Authors: Gozel Judakova, Markus Bause

Abstract:

We present and analyze reliable numerical techniques for simulating complex flow and transport phenomena related to natural gas transportation in pipelines. Such kind of problems are of high interest in the field of petroleum and environmental engineering. Modeling and understanding natural gas flow and transformation processes during transportation is important for the sake of physical realism and the design and operation of pipeline systems. In our approach a two fluid flow model based on a system of coupled hyperbolic conservation laws is considered for describing natural gas flow undergoing hydratization. The accurate numerical approximation of two-phase gas flow remains subject of strong interest in the scientific community. Such hyperbolic problems are characterized by solutions with steep gradients or discontinuities, and their approximation by standard finite element techniques typically gives rise to spurious oscillations and numerical artefacts. Recently, stabilized and discontinuous Galerkin finite element techniques have attracted researchers’ interest. They are highly adapted to the hyperbolic nature of our two-phase flow model. In the presentation a streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin approach and a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for the numerical approximation of our flow model of two coupled systems of Euler equations are presented. Then the efficiency and reliability of stabilized continuous and discontinous finite element methods for the approximation is carefully analyzed and the potential of the either classes of numerical schemes is investigated. In particular, standard benchmark problems of two-phase flow like the shock tube problem are used for the comparative numerical study.

Keywords: Discontinuous Galerkin method, Euler system, inviscid two-fluid model, streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin method, two-phase flow.

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Authors: Bharadwaj Kadiyala, Sunitha V

Abstract:

Most routing protocols (DSR, AODV etc.) that have been designed for wireless adhoc networks incorporate the broadcasting operation in their route discovery scheme. Probabilistic broadcasting techniques have been developed to optimize the broadcast operation which is otherwise very expensive in terms of the redundancy and the traffic it generates. In this paper we have explored percolation theory to gain a different perspective on probabilistic broadcasting schemes which have been actively researched in the recent years. This theory has helped us estimate the value of broadcast probability in a wireless adhoc network as a function of the size of the network. We also show that, operating at those optimal values of broadcast probability there is at least 25-30% reduction in packet regeneration during successful broadcasting.

Keywords: Crossover length, Percolation, Probabilistic broadcast, Wireless adhoc networks

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Authors: Chaudhuri Manoj Kumar Swain, Susmita Das

Abstract:

This paper explores a detailed procedure of predicting a path loss (PL) model and its application in estimating the coverage probability in a WiMAX network. For this a hybrid approach is followed in predicting an empirical PL model of a 2.65 GHz WiMAX network deployed in a suburban environment. Data collection, statistical analysis, and regression analysis are the phases of operations incorporated in this approach and the importance of each of these phases has been discussed properly. The procedure of collecting data such as received signal strength indicator (RSSI) through experimental set up is demonstrated. From the collected data set, empirical PL and RSSI models are predicted with regression technique. Furthermore, with the aid of the predicted PL model, essential parameters such as PL exponent as well as the coverage probability of the network are evaluated. This research work may assist in the process of deployment and optimisation of any cellular network significantly.

Keywords: WiMAX, RSSI, path loss, coverage probability, regression analysis.

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Authors: Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi

Abstract:

This article considers the problem of evaluating infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability under a given compound Poisson surplus process by approximating the claim size distribution by a finite mixture exponential, say Hyperexponential, distribution. It restates the infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability as a solvable ordinary differential equation (or a partial differential equation). Application of our findings has been given through a simulation study.

Keywords: Ruin probability, compound Poisson processes, mixture exponential (hyperexponential) distribution, heavy-tailed distributions.

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Authors: Tsair-Fwu Lee , Hui-Min Ting , Pei-Ju Chao, Jing-Chuan Jiang, Min-Yuan Chao, Wen-Cheng Chen, Long-Chang Chen, Jia-Ming Wu

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to derive parameters estimating for the Lyman–Kutcher–Burman (LKB) normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model using analysis of scintigraphy assessments and quality of life (QoL) measurement questionnaires for the parotid gland (xerostomia). In total, 31 patients with head-and-neck (HN) cancer were enrolled. Salivary excretion factor (SEF) and EORTC QLQ-H&N35 questionnaires datasets are used for the NTCP modeling to describe the incidence of grade 4 xerostomia. Assuming that n= 1, NTCP fitted parameters are given as TD50= 43.6 Gy, m= 0.18 in SEF analysis, and as TD50= 44.1 Gy, m= 0.11 in QoL measurements, respectively. SEF and QoL datasets can validate the Quantitative Analyses of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) guidelines well, resulting in NPV-s of 100% for the both datasets and suggests that the QUANTEC 25/20Gy gland-spared guidelines are suitable for clinical used for the HN cohort to effectively avoid xerostomia.

Keywords: HN, NTCP, SEF, QoL, QUANTEC

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Authors: R. May, K. Jinno, I. Yusoff

Abstract:

The paper aims at evaluating the effects of heavy groundwater withdrawal and artificial groundwater recharge of an ex-mining pond to the aquifer system of the Langat Basin through the three-dimensional (3D) numerical modeling. Many mining sites have been left behind from the massive mining exploitations in Malaysia during the England colonization era and from the last few decades. These sites are able to accommodate more than a million cubic meters of water from precipitation, runoff, groundwater, and river. Most of the time, the mining sites are turned into ponds for recreational activities. In the current study, an artificial groundwater recharge from an ex-mining pond in the Langat Basin was proposed due to its capacity to store >50 million m3 of water. The location of the pond is near the Langat River and opposite a steel company where >4 million gallons of groundwater is withdrawn on a daily basis. The 3D numerical simulation was developed using the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS). The calibrated model (error about 0.7 m) was utilized to simulate two scenarios (1) Case 1: artificial recharge pond with no pumping and (2) Case 2: artificial pond with pumping. The results showed that in Case 1, the pond played a very important role in supplying additional water to the aquifer and river. About 90,916 m3/d of water from the pond, 1,173 m3/d from the Langat River, and 67,424 m3/d from the direct recharge of precipitation infiltrated into the aquifer system. In Case 2, due to the abstraction of groundwater from a company, it caused a steep depression around the wells, river, and pond. The result of the water budget showed an increase rate of inflow in the pond and river with 92,493m3/d and 3,881m3/d respectively. The outcome of the current study provides useful information of the aquifer behavior of the Langat Basin.

Keywords: Groundwater and surface water interaction, groundwater modeling, GMS, artificial recharge pond, ex-mining site.

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Authors: Marasovic Branka, Aljinovic Zdravka, Poklepovic Tea

Abstract:

Numerical methods like binomial and trinomial trees and finite difference methods can be used to price a wide range of options contracts for which there are no known analytical solutions. American options are the most famous of that kind of options. Besides numerical methods, American options can be valued with the approximation formulas, like Bjerksund-Stensland formulas from 1993 and 2002. When the value of American option is approximated by Bjerksund-Stensland formulas, the computer time spent to carry out that calculation is very short. The computer time spent using numerical methods can vary from less than one second to several minutes or even hours. However to be able to conduct a comparative analysis of numerical methods and Bjerksund-Stensland formulas, we will limit computer calculation time of numerical method to less than one second. Therefore, we ask the question: Which method will be most accurate at nearly the same computer calculation time?

Keywords: Bjerksund and Stensland approximations, Computational analysis, Finance, Options pricing, Numerical methods.

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