Search results for: Nonlinear time series analysis

Authors: Khalid M. Aamir, Mohammad A. Maud

Abstract:

Power Spectral Density (PSD) of quasi-stationary processes can be efficiently estimated using the short time Fourier series (STFT). In this paper, an algorithm has been proposed that computes the PSD of quasi-stationary process efficiently using offline autoregressive model order estimation algorithm, recursive parameter estimation technique and modified sliding window discrete Fourier Transform algorithm. The main difference in this algorithm and STFT is that the sliding window (SW) and window for spectral estimation (WSA) are separately defined. WSA is updated and its PSD is computed only when change in statistics is detected in the SW. The computational complexity of the proposed algorithm is found to be lesser than that for standard STFT technique.

Keywords: Power Spectral Density (PSD), quasi-stationarytime series, short time Fourier Transform, Sliding window DFT.

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Authors: Charline David, Alexandre Blondin Massé, Arnaud Zinflou

Abstract:

We present a multiple equation time series approach for the short-term load forecasting applied to the electrical power load consumption for the whole Quebec province, in Canada. More precisely, we take into account three meteorological variables — temperature, cloudiness and wind speed —, and we use meteorological measurements taken at different locations on the territory. Our final model shows an average MAPE score of 1.79% over an 8-years dataset.

Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, special days, time series, multiple equations, parallelization, clustering.

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Authors: S. Farzi

Abstract:

Recently, a lot of attention has been devoted to advanced techniques of system modeling. PNN(polynomial neural network) is a GMDH-type algorithm (Group Method of Data Handling) which is one of the useful method for modeling nonlinear systems but PNN performance depends strongly on the number of input variables and the order of polynomial which are determined by trial and error. In this paper, we introduce GPNN (genetic polynomial neural network) to improve the performance of PNN. GPNN determines the number of input variables and the order of all neurons with GA (genetic algorithm). We use GA to search between all possible values for the number of input variables and the order of polynomial. GPNN performance is obtained by two nonlinear systems. the quadratic equation and the time series Dow Jones stock index are two case studies for obtaining the GPNN performance.

Keywords: GMDH, GPNN, GA, PNN.

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Authors: R. K. Apalowo, D. Chronopoulos

Abstract:

A Finite Element (FE) based scheme is presented for quantifying guided wave interaction with Localised Nonlinear Structural Damage (LNSD) within structures of arbitrary layering and geometric complexity. The through-thickness mode-shape of the structure is obtained through a wave and finite element method. This is applied in a time domain FE simulation in order to generate time harmonic excitation for a specific wave mode. Interaction of the wave with LNSD within the system is computed through an element activation and deactivation iteration. The scheme is validated against experimental measurements and a WFE-FE methodology for calculating wave interaction with damage. Case studies for guided wave interaction with crack and delamination are presented to verify the robustness of the proposed method in classifying and identifying damage.

Keywords: Layered Structures, nonlinear ultrasound, wave interaction with nonlinear damage, wave finite element, finite element.

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Authors: Shan-Jen Cheng, Te-Jen Chang, Kuang-Hsiung Tan, Shou-Ling Kuo

Abstract:

Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is such a time-vary nonlinear dynamic system. The traditional linear modeling approach is hard to estimate structure correctly of PEMFC system. From this reason, this paper presents a nonlinear modeling of the PEMFC using Neural Network Auto-regressive model with eXogenous inputs (NNARX) approach. The multilayer perception (MLP) network is applied to evaluate the structure of the NNARX model of PEMFC. The validity and accuracy of NNARX model are tested by one step ahead relating output voltage to input current from measured experimental of PEMFC. The results show that the obtained nonlinear NNARX model can efficiently approximate the dynamic mode of the PEMFC and model output and system measured output consistently.

Keywords: PEMFC, neural network, nonlinear identification, NNARX.

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Authors: M. Seguini, D. Nedjar

Abstract:

An accuracy nonlinear analysis of a deep beam resting on elastic perfectly plastic soil is carried out in this study. In fact, a nonlinear finite element modeling for large deflection and moderate rotation of Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on linear and nonlinear random soil is investigated. The geometric nonlinear analysis of the beam is based on the theory of von Kàrmàn, where the Newton-Raphson incremental iteration method is implemented in a Matlab code to solve the nonlinear equation of the soil-beam interaction system. However, two analyses (deterministic and probabilistic) are proposed to verify the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed model where the theory of the local average based on the Monte Carlo approach is used to analyze the effect of the spatial variability of the soil properties on the nonlinear beam response. The effect of six main parameters are investigated: the external load, the length of a beam, the coefficient of subgrade reaction of the soil, the Young’s modulus of the beam, the coefficient of variation and the correlation length of the soil’s coefficient of subgrade reaction. A comparison between the beam resting on linear and nonlinear soil models is presented for different beam’s length and external load. Numerical results have been obtained for the combination of the geometric nonlinearity of beam and material nonlinearity of random soil. This comparison highlighted the need of including the material nonlinearity and spatial variability of the soil in the geometric nonlinear analysis, when the beam undergoes large deflections.

Keywords: Finite element method, geometric nonlinearity, material nonlinearity, soil-structure interaction, spatial variability.

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Authors: Xinli Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the nonlinear delay dynamic system xΔ(t) = p(t)f1(y(t)), yΔ(t) = −q(t)f2(x(t − τ )). We obtain some necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of nonoscillatory solutions with special asymptotic properties of the system. We generalize the known results in the literature. One example is given to illustrate the results.

Keywords: Dynamic system, oscillation, time scales, two-dimensional.

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Authors: Jelena R. Pejović, Nina N. Serdar

Abstract:

This paper presents an analysis of the “Performance-Based” seismic design method, in order to overcome the perceived disadvantages and limitations of the existing seismic design approach based on force, in engineering practice. Bearing in mind, the specificity of the earthquake as a load and the fact that the seismic resistance of the structures solely depends on its behaviour in the nonlinear field, traditional seismic design approach based on force and linear analysis is not adequate. “Performance-Based” seismic design method is based on nonlinear analysis and can be used in everyday engineering practice. This paper presents the application of this method to eight-story high reinforced concrete building with combined structural system (reinforced concrete frame structural system in one direction and reinforced concrete ductile wall system in other direction). The nonlinear time-history analysis is performed on the spatial model of the structure using program Perform 3D, where the structure is exposed to forty real earthquake records. For considered building, large number of results were obtained. It was concluded that using this method we could, with a high degree of reliability, evaluate structural behavior under earthquake. It is obtained significant differences in the response of structures to various earthquake records. Also analysis showed that frame structural system had not performed well at the effect of earthquake records on soil like sand and gravel, while a ductile wall system had a satisfactory behavior on different types of soils.

Keywords: Ductile wall, frame system, nonlinear time-history analysis, performance-based methodology, RC building.

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Authors: A. I. Dounis, P. Tiropanis, D. Tseles, G. Nikolaou, G. P. Syrcos

Abstract:

The prediction of meteorological parameters at a meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a comparison between local and global prediction schemes.

Keywords: Fuzzy predictive model, grey model, local andglobal prediction, meteorological forecasting, time series.

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Authors: N. Manoj

Abstract:

The aeroelastic behavior of engine nacelle strake when subjected to unsteady aerodynamic flows is investigated in this paper. Geometric nonlinear characteristics and modal parameters of nacelle strake are studied when it is under dynamic loading condition. Here, an N-S based Finite Volume solver is coupled with Finite Element (FE) based nonlinear structural solver to investigate the nonlinear characteristics of nacelle strake over a range of dynamic pressures at various phases of flight like takeoff, climb, and cruise conditions. The combination of high fidelity models for both aerodynamics and structural dynamics is used to predict the nonlinearities of strake (chine). The methodology adopted for present aeroelastic analysis is partitioned-based time domain coupled CFD and CSD solvers and it is validated by the consideration of experimental and numerical comparison of aeroelastic data for a cropped delta wing model which has a proven record. The present strake geometry is derived from theoretical formulation. The amplitude and frequency obtained from the coupled solver at various dynamic pressures is discussed, which gives a better understanding of its impact on aerodynamic design-sizing of strake.

Keywords: Aeroelasticity, finite volume, geometric nonlinearity, limit cycle oscillations, strake.

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Authors: Wullapa Wongsinlatam

Abstract:

Back propagation algorithm (BP) is a widely used technique in artificial neural network and has been used as a tool for solving the time series problems, such as decreasing training time, maximizing the ability to fall into local minima, and optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias. This paper proposes an improvement of a BP technique which is called IM-COH algorithm (IM-COH). By combining IM-COH algorithm with cuckoo search algorithm (CS), the result is cuckoo search improved control output hidden layer algorithm (CS-IM-COH). This new algorithm has a better ability in optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias than the original BP algorithm. In this research, the algorithm of CS-IM-COH is compared with the original BP, the IM-COH, and the original BP with CS (CS-BP). Furthermore, the selected benchmarks, four time series samples, are shown in this research for illustration. The research shows that the CS-IM-COH algorithm give the best forecasting results compared with the selected samples.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, back propagation algorithm, time series, local minima problem, metaheuristic optimization.

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Authors: M. Pourgholi, V.J.Majd

Abstract:

This paper addresses parameter and state estimation problem in the presence of the perturbation of observer gain bounded input disturbances for the Lipschitz systems that are linear in unknown parameters and nonlinear in states. A new nonlinear adaptive resilient observer is designed, and its stability conditions based on Lyapunov technique are derived. The gain for this observer is derived systematically using linear matrix inequality approach. A numerical example is provided in which the nonlinear terms depend on unmeasured states. The simulation results are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Adaptive observer, linear matrix inequality, nonlinear systems, nonlinear observer, resilient observer, robust estimation.

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Authors: Monika Chuchro

Abstract:

This paper presents a preliminary attempt to apply classification of time series using meta-clusters in order to improve the quality of regression models. In this case, clustering was performed as a method to obtain subgroups of time series data with normal distribution from the inflow into wastewater treatment plant data, composed of several groups differing by mean value. Two simple algorithms, K-mean and EM, were chosen as a clustering method. The Rand index was used to measure the similarity. After simple meta-clustering, a regression model was performed for each subgroups. The final model was a sum of the subgroups models. The quality of the obtained model was compared with the regression model made using the same explanatory variables, but with no clustering of data. Results were compared using determination coefficient (R2), measure of prediction accuracy- mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and comparison on a linear chart. Preliminary results allow us to foresee the potential of the presented technique.

Keywords: Clustering, Data analysis, Data mining, Predictive models.

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Authors: Abderrahmane El Kachani, El Mahjoub Chakir, Anass Ait Laachir, Abdelhamid Niaaniaa, Jamal Zerouaoui, Tarik Jarou

Abstract:

This paper presents a wind turbine based on the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) connected to the utility grid through a shunt active power filter (SAPF). The whole system is controlled by a double nonlinear predictive controller (DNPC). A Taylor series expansion is used to predict the outputs of the system. The control law is calculated by optimization of the cost function. The first nonlinear predictive controller (NPC) is designed to ensure the high performance tracking of the rotor speed and regulate the rotor current of the DFIG, while the second one is designed to control the SAPF in order to compensate the harmonic produces by the three-phase diode bridge supplied by a passive circuit (rd, Ld). As a result, we obtain sinusoidal waveforms of the stator voltage and stator current. The proposed nonlinear predictive controllers (NPCs) are validated via simulation on a 1.5 MW DFIG-based wind turbine connected to an SAPF. The results obtained appear to be satisfactory and promising.

Keywords: Wind power, doubly fed induction generator, shunt active power filter, double nonlinear predictive controller.

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Authors: Hongji Tang, Yanbo Gao, Yue Yu

Abstract:

This paper presents a new nonlinear integral-type sliding surface for synchronizing two different chaotic systems with parametric uncertainty. On the basis of Lyapunov theorem and average dwelling time method, we obtain the control gains of controllers which are derived to achieve chaos synchronization. In order to reduce the gains, the error system is modeled as a switching system. We obtain the sufficient condition drawn for the robust stability of the error dynamics by stability analysis. Then we apply it to guide the design of the controllers. Finally, numerical examples are used to show the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

Keywords: Chaos synchronization, Nonlinear sliding surface, Control gains, Sliding mode control.

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Authors: Tapas Kumar Sinha, Joseph Mathew

Abstract:

Based on the Lagrangian for the Gross –Pitaevskii equation as derived by H. Sakaguchi and B.A Malomed [5] we have derived a double well model for the nonlinear optical lattice. This model explains the various features of nonlinear optical lattices. Further, from this model we obtain and simulate the probability for tunneling from one well to another which agrees with experimental results [4].

Keywords: Double well model, nonlinear optical lattice, Solitons, tunneling.

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Authors: K. Kamalanand, P. Mannar Jawahar

Abstract:

Many systems in the natural world exhibit chaos or non-linear behavior, the complexity of which is so great that they appear to be random. Identification of chaos in experimental data is essential for characterizing the system and for analyzing the predictability of the data under analysis. The Lyapunov exponents provide a quantitative measure of the sensitivity to initial conditions and are the most useful dynamical diagnostic for chaotic systems. However, it is difficult to accurately estimate the Lyapunov exponents of chaotic signals which are corrupted by a random noise. In this work, a method for estimation of Lyapunov exponents from noisy time series using unscented transformation is proposed. The proposed methodology was validated using time series obtained from known chaotic maps. In this paper, the objective of the work, the proposed methodology and validation results are discussed in detail.

Keywords: Lyapunov exponents, unscented transformation, chaos theory, neural networks.

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Authors: Sajjad Farashi

Abstract:

Neurons in the nervous system communicate with each other by producing electrical signals called spikes. To investigate the physiological function of nervous system it is essential to study the activity of neurons by detecting and sorting spikes in the recorded signal. In this paper a method is proposed for considering the spike sorting problem which is based on the nonlinear modeling of spikes using exponential autoregressive model. The genetic algorithm is utilized for model parameter estimation. In this regard some selected model coefficients are used as features for sorting purposes. For optimal selection of model coefficients, self-organizing feature map is used. The results show that modeling of spikes with nonlinear autoregressive model outperforms its linear counterpart. Also the extracted features based on the coefficients of exponential autoregressive model are better than wavelet based extracted features and get more compact and well-separated clusters. In the case of spikes different in small-scale structures where principal component analysis fails to get separated clouds in the feature space, the proposed method can obtain well-separated cluster which removes the necessity of applying complex classifiers.

Keywords: Exponential autoregressive model, Neural data, spike sorting, time series modeling.

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Authors: A. R. Tavakolpour-Saleh, H. Jokar

Abstract:

Liquid level control of conical tank system is known to be a great challenge in many industries such as food processing, hydrometallurgical industries and wastewater treatment plant due to its highly nonlinear characteristics. In this research, an adaptive fuzzy PID control scheme is applied to the problem of liquid level control in a nonlinear tank process. A conical tank process is first modeled and primarily simulated. A PID controller is then applied to the plant model as a suitable benchmark for comparison and the dynamic responses of the control system to different step inputs were investigated. It is found that the conventional PID controller is not able to fulfill the controller design criteria such as desired time constant due to highly nonlinear characteristics of the plant model. Consequently, a nonlinear control strategy based on gain-scheduling adaptive control incorporating a fuzzy logic observer is proposed to accurately control the nonlinear tank system. The simulation results clearly demonstrated the superiority of the proposed adaptive fuzzy control method over the conventional PID controller.

Keywords: Adaptive control, fuzzy logic, conical tank, PID controller.

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Authors: Leila Motamed-Jahromi, Mohsen Hatami, Alireza Keshavarz

Abstract:

This research aims at obtaining the equations of pulse propagation in nonlinear plasmonic waveguides created with As₂S₃ chalcogenide materials. Via utilizing Helmholtz equation and first-order perturbation theory, two components of electric field are determined within frequency domain. Afterwards, the equations are formulated in time domain. The obtained equations include two coupled differential equations that considers nonlinear dispersion.

Keywords: Nonlinear optics, propagation equation, plasmonic waveguide.

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Authors: Hua Cao, Laurent Peyrodie, Olivier Agnani, Cécile Donzé

Abstract:

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a disease which affects the central nervous system and causes balance problem. In clinical, this disorder is usually evaluated using static posturography. Some linear or nonlinear measures, extracted from the posturographic data (i.e. center of pressure, COP) recorded during a balance test, has been used to analyze postural control of MS patients. In this study, the trend (TREND) and the sample entropy (SampEn), two nonlinear parameters were chosen to investigate their relationships with the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score. 40 volunteers with different EDSS scores participated in our experiments with eyes open (EO) and closed (EC). TREND and 2 types of SampEn (SampEn1 and SampEn2) were calculated for each combined COP’s position signal. The results have shown that TREND had a weak negative correlation to EDSS while SampEn2 had a strong positive correlation to EDSS. Compared to TREND and SampEn1, SampEn2 showed a better significant correlation to EDSS and an ability to discriminate the MS patients in the EC case. In addition, the outcome of the study suggests that the multi-dimensional nonlinear analysis could provide some information about the impact of disability progression in MS on dynamics of the COP data.

Keywords: Balance, multiple sclerosis, nonlinear analysis, postural sway.

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Authors: Hossein Kabir, Mojtaba Sadeghi

Abstract:

Finding the linear and nonlinear responses of a typical single-degree-of-freedom system (SDOF) is always being regarded as a time-consuming process. This study attempts to provide modifications in the renowned Newmark method in order to make it more time efficient than it used to be and make it more accurate by modifying the system in its own non-linear state. The efficacy of the presented method is demonstrated by assigning three base excitations such as Tabas 1978, El Centro 1940, and MEXICO CITY/SCT 1985 earthquakes to a SDOF system, that is, SDOF, to compute the strength reduction factor, yield pseudo acceleration, and ductility factor.

Keywords: Single-degree-of-freedom system, linear acceleration method, nonlinear excited system, equivalent displacement method.

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Authors: Indra Budi, Rizal Fathoni Aji, Agus Widodo

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Prediction of future research topics by using time series analysis either statistical or machine learning has been conducted previously by several researchers. Several methods have been proposed to combine the forecasting results into single forecast. These methods use fixed combination of individual forecast to get the final forecast result. In this paper, quite different approach is employed to select the forecasting methods, in which every point to forecast is calculated by using the best methods used by similar validation dataset. The dataset used in the experiment is time series derived from research report in Garuda, which is an online sites belongs to the Ministry of Education in Indonesia, over the past 20 years. The experimental result demonstrates that the proposed method may perform better compared to the fix combination of predictors. In addition, based on the prediction result, we can forecast emerging research topics for the next few years.

Keywords: Combination, emerging topics, ensemble, forecasting, machine learning, prediction, research topics, similarity measure, time series.

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Authors: B. X. Tchomeni, A. A. Alugongo, T. B. Tengen

Abstract:

In this paper, de Laval rotor system has been characterized by a hinge model and its transient response numerically treated for a dynamic solution. The effect of the ensuing non-linear disturbances namely rub and breathing crack is numerically simulated. Subsequently, three analysis methods: Orbit Analysis, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), and Wavelet Transform (WT) are employed to extract features of the vibration signal of the faulty system. An analysis of the system response orbits clearly indicates the perturbations due to the rotor-to-stator contact. The sensitivities of WT to the variation in system speed have been investigated by Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT). The analysis reveals that features of crack, rubs and unbalance in vibration response can be useful for condition monitoring. WT reveals its ability to detect nonlinear signal, and obtained results provide a useful tool method for detecting machinery faults.

Keywords: Continuous wavelet, crack, discrete wavelet, high acceleration, low acceleration, nonlinear, rotor-stator, rub.

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Authors: M. Altekin, R. F. Yükseler

Abstract:

Geometrically nonlinear axisymmetric bending of a shallow spherical shell with a point support at the apex under linearly varying axisymmetric load was investigated numerically. The edge of the shell was assumed to be simply supported or clamped. The solution was obtained by the finite difference and the Newton-Raphson methods. The thickness of the shell was considered to be uniform and the material was assumed to be homogeneous and isotropic. Sensitivity analysis was made for two geometrical parameters. The accuracy of the algorithm was checked by comparing the deflection with the solution of point supported circular plates and good agreement was obtained.

Keywords: Bending, nonlinear, plate, point support, shell.

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Authors: Vivekanandan C., Prabhakar .R., Prema D.

Abstract:

This paper presents the application of discrete-time variable structure control with sliding mode based on the 'reaching law' method for robust control of a 'simple inverted pendulum on moving cart' - a standard nonlinear benchmark system. The controllers designed using the above techniques are completely insensitive to parametric uncertainty and external disturbance. The controller design is carried out using pole placement technique to find state feedback gain matrix , which decides the dynamic behavior of the system during sliding mode. This is followed by feedback gain realization using the control law which is synthesized from 'Gao-s reaching law'. The model of a single inverted pendulum and the discrete variable structure control controller are developed, simulated in MATLAB-SIMULINK and results are presented. The response of this simulation is compared with that of the discrete linear quadratic regulator (DLQR) and the advantages of sliding mode controller over DLQR are also presented

Keywords: Inverted pendulum, Variable Structure, Sliding mode control, Discrete-time systems, Nonlinear systems.

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Authors: Joe Imae, Kenjiro Shinagawa, Tomoaki Kobayashi, Guisheng Zhai

Abstract:

We propose a new approach on how to obtain the approximate solutions of Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) equations. The process of the approximation consists of two steps. The first step is to transform the HJ equations into the virtual time based HJ equations (VT-HJ) by introducing a new idea of ‘virtual-time’. The second step is to construct the approximate solutions of the HJ equations through a computationally iterative procedure based on the VT-HJ equations. It should be noted that the approximate feedback solutions evolve by themselves as the virtual-time goes by. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approximation approach by means of simulations with linear and nonlinear control problems.

Keywords: Nonlinear Control, Optimal Control, Hamilton-Jacobi Equation, Virtual-Time

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Authors: Gilberto Gonzalez-A, Gerardo Jaimes-A

Abstract:

A methodology to design a nonlinear observer in a bond graph approach is proposed. The class of nonlinear observer with multivariable nonlinearities is considered. A junction structure of the bond graph observer is proposed. The proposed methodology to an electrical transformer and a DC motor including the nonlinear saturation is applied. Nonlinear observers for the transformer and DC motor based on multivariable circle criterion in the physical domain are proposed. In order to show the saturation effects on the transformer and DC motor, simulation results are obtained. Finally, the paper describes that convergence of the estimates to the true states is achieved.

Keywords: Bond graph, nonlinear observer, electrical transformer, nonlinear saturation

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Authors: Zixin Liu, Jian Yu, Daoyun Xu

Abstract:

This paper aims to establish a delayed dynamical relationship between payoffs of players in a zero-sum game. By introducing Markovian chain and time delay in the network model, a delayed game network model with sector bounds and slope bounds restriction nonlinear function is first proposed. As a result, a direct dynamical relationship between payoffs of players in a zero-sum game can be illustrated through a delayed singular system. Combined with Finsler-s Lemma and Lyapunov stable theory, a sufficient condition guaranteeing the unique existence and stability of zero-sum game-s Nash equilibrium is derived. One numerical example is presented to illustrate the validity of the main result.

Keywords: Game networks, zero-sum game, delayed singular system, nonlinear perturbation, time delay.

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Authors: Hidetoshi Konno, Akio Suzuki

Abstract:

The paper presented a transient population dynamics of phase singularities in 2D Beeler-Reuter model. Two stochastic modelings are examined: (i) the Master equation approach with the transition rate (i.e., λ(n, t) = λ(t)n and μ(n, t) = μ(t)n) and (ii) the nonlinear Langevin equation approach with a multiplicative noise. The exact general solution of the Master equation with arbitrary time-dependent transition rate is given. Then, the exact solution of the mean field equation for the nonlinear Langevin equation is also given. It is demonstrated that transient population dynamics is successfully identified by the generalized Logistic equation with fractional higher order nonlinear term. It is also demonstrated the necessity of introducing time-dependent transition rate in the master equation approach to incorporate the effect of nonlinearity.

Keywords: Transient population dynamics, Phase singularity, Birth-death process, Non-stationary Master equation, nonlinear Langevin equation, generalized Logistic equation.

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