Search results for: Early stage prediction

Authors: J. Modu, J. F. Georgin, L. Briançon, E. Antoinet

Abstract:

Wind turbine gravity foundations are designed to resist overturning failure through gravitational forces resulting from their masses. Owing to the relatively high volume of the cementitious material present, the foundations tend to suffer thermal strains and internal cracking due to high temperatures and temperature gradients depending on factors such as geometry, mix design and level of restraint. This is a result of a fully coupled mechanism commonly known as THMC (Thermo- Hygro - Mechanical - Chemical) coupling whose kinetics peak during the early age of concrete. The focus of this paper is therefore to present and offer a discussion on the temperature and humidity evolutions occurring in mass pours such as wind turbine gravity foundations based on sensor results obtained from the monitoring of an actual wind turbine foundation. To offer prediction of the evolutions, the formulation of a 3D Thermal-Hydro-Chemical (THC) model that is mainly derived from classical fundamental physical laws is also presented and discussed. The THC model can be mathematically fully coupled in Finite Element analyses. In the current study, COMSOL Multi-physics software was used to simulate the 3D THC coupling that occurred in the monitored wind turbine foundation to predict the temperature evolution at five different points within the foundation from time of casting.

Keywords: Early age behavior, reinforced concrete, THC 3D models, wind turbines.

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Authors: Kanokrat Saisaard, Irini Angelidaki, Poonsuk Prasertsan

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The microbial production of ethanol from biodiesel¬derived crude glycerol by Enterobacter aerogenes TISTR1468, under micro-aerobic and anaerobic conditions, was investigated. The experimental results showed that micro-aerobic conditions were more favorable for cellular growth (4.0 g/L DCW), ethanol production (20.7 g/L) as well as the ethanol yield (0.47 g/g glycerol) than anaerobic conditions (1.2 g/L DCW, 6.3 g/L ethanol and 0.72 g/g glycerol, respectively). Crude glycerol (100 g/L) was consumed completely with the rate of 1.80 g/L/h. Two-stage fermentation (combination of micro-aerobic and anaerobic condition) exhibited higher ethanol production (24.5 g/L) than using one-stage fermentation (either micro-aerobic or anaerobic condition. The two- stage configuration, exhibited slightly higher crude glycerol consumption rate (1.81 g/L/h), as well as ethanol yield (0.56 g/g) than the one-stage configuration. Therefore, two-stage process was selected for ethanol production from E. aerogenes TISTR1468 in scale-up studies.

Keywords: crude glycerol, ethanol, micro-aerobic, two-stage, Enterobacter aerogenes

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Authors: Seung Hwan Park, Cheng-Sool Park, Jun Seok Kim, Youngji Yoo, Daewoong An, Jun-Geol Baek

Abstract:

Depending on the big data analysis becomes important, yield prediction using data from the semiconductor process is essential. In general, yield prediction and analysis of the causes of the failure are closely related. The purpose of this study is to analyze pattern affects the final test results using a die map based clustering. Many researches have been conducted using die data from the semiconductor test process. However, analysis has limitation as the test data is less directly related to the final test results. Therefore, this study proposes a framework for analysis through clustering using more detailed data than existing die data. This study consists of three phases. In the first phase, die map is created through fail bit data in each sub-area of die. In the second phase, clustering using map data is performed. And the third stage is to find patterns that affect final test result. Finally, the proposed three steps are applied to actual industrial data and experimental results showed the potential field application.

Keywords: Die-Map Clustering, Feature Extraction, Pattern Recognition, Semiconductor Manufacturing Process.

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Authors: Yu Bin, Zhang Yan

Abstract:

The prediction of transmembrane helical segments (TMHs) in membrane proteins is an important field in the bioinformatics research. In this paper, a new method based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) has been developed to predict the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins. PDB coded as 1KQG was chosen as an example to describe the prediction of the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins by using this method. To access the effect of the method, 80 proteins with known 3D-structure from Mptopo database are chosen at random as the test objects (including 325 TMHs), 308 of which can be predicted accurately, the average predicted accuracy is 96.3%. In addition, the above 80 membrane proteins are divided into 13 groups according to their function and type. In particular, the results of the prediction of TMHs of the 13 groups are satisfying.

Keywords: discrete wavelet transform, hydrophobicity, membrane protein, transmembrane helical segments

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Authors: Asmir Gogic, Aljo Mujcic, Sandra Ibric, Nermin Suljanovic

Abstract:

Ubiquity of natural disasters during last few decades have risen serious questions towards the prediction of such events and human safety. Every disaster regardless its proportion has a precursor which is manifested as a disruption of some environmental parameter such as temperature, humidity, pressure, vibrations and etc. In order to anticipate and monitor those changes, in this paper we propose an overall system for disaster prediction and monitoring, based on wireless sensor network (WSN). Furthermore, we introduce a modified and simplified WSN routing protocol built on the top of the trickle routing algorithm. Routing algorithm was deployed using the bluetooth low energy protocol in order to achieve low power consumption. Performance of the WSN network was analyzed using a real life system implementation. Estimates of the WSN parameters such as battery life time, network size and packet delay are determined. Based on the performance of the WSN network, proposed system can be utilized for disaster monitoring and prediction due to its low power profile and mesh routing feature.

Keywords: Bluetooth low energy, disaster prediction, mesh routing protocols, wireless sensor networks.

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Authors: Emad Amar, Tawfik Khattab, Fatma Zada

Abstract:

Predicting earthquakes is an important issue in the study of geography. Accurate prediction of earthquakes can help people to take effective measures to minimize the loss of personal and economic damage, such as large casualties, destruction of buildings and broken of traffic, occurred within a few seconds. United States Geological Survey (USGS) science organization provides reliable scientific information about Earthquake Existed throughout history & the Preliminary database from the National Center Earthquake Information (NEIC) show some useful factors to predict an earthquake in a seismic area like Aleutian Arc in the U.S. state of Alaska. The main advantage of this prediction method that it does not require any assumption, it makes prediction according to the future evolution of the object's time series. The article compares between simulation data result from trained BP and RBF neural network versus actual output result from the system calculations. Therefore, this article focuses on analysis of data relating to real earthquakes. Evaluation results show better accuracy and higher speed by using radial basis functions (RBF) neural network.

Keywords: BP neural network, Prediction, RBF neural network.

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Authors: B. A. Q. Santos, S. K. O. Ntwampe, G. Muchatibaya

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In this study, the designed dual stage membrane bioreactor (MBR) system was conceptualized for the treatment of cyanide and heavy metals in electroplating wastewater. The design consisted of a primary treatment stage to reduce the impact of fluctuations and the secondary treatment stage to remove the residual cyanide and heavy metal contaminants in the wastewater under alkaline pH conditions. The primary treatment stage contained hydrolyzed Citrus sinensis (C. sinensis) pomace and the secondary treatment stage contained active Aspergillus awamori (A. awamori) biomass, supplemented solely with C. sinensis pomace extract from the hydrolysis process. An average of 76.37%, 95.37%, 93.26 and 94.76% and 99.55%, 99.91%, 99.92% and 99.92% degradation efficiency for total cyanide (T-CN), including the sorption of nickel (Ni), zinc (Zn) and copper (Cu) were observed after the first and second treatment stages, respectively. Furthermore, cyanide conversion by-products degradation was 99.81% and 99.75 for both formate (CHOO-) and ammonium (NH4 +) after the second treatment stage. After the first, second and third regeneration cycles of the C. sinensis pomace in the first treatment stage, Ni, Zn and Cu removal achieved was 99.13%, 99.12% and 99.04% (first regeneration cycle), 98.94%, 98.92% and 98.41% (second regeneration cycle) and 98.46 %, 98.44% and 97.91% (third regeneration cycle), respectively. There was relatively insignificant standard deviation detected in all the measured parameters in the system which indicated reproducibility of the remediation efficiency in this continuous system.

Keywords: Aspergillus awamori, Citrus sinensis pomace, electroplating wastewater remediation, membrane bioreactor.

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Authors: A. M. Pashayev, D. D. Askerov, C. Ardil, R. A. Sadiqov, P. S. Abdullayev

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Researches show that probability-statistical methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation Gas Turbine Engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods is considered. According to the purpose of this problem training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. For GTE technical condition more adequate model making dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients- changes are analysed. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE workand output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stage-by-stage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine technical condition was made.

Keywords: aviation gas turbine engine, technical condition, fuzzy logic, neural networks, fuzzy statistics

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Authors: Renbin Dai, Rana Arslan Ali Khan

Abstract:

The design of Class A and Class AB 2-stage X band Power Amplifier is described in this report. This power amplifier is part of a transceiver used in radar for monitoring iron characteristics in a blast furnace. The circuit was designed using foundry WIN Semiconductors. The specification requires 15dB gain in the linear region, VSWR nearly 1 at input as well as at the output, an output power of 10 dBm and good stable performance in the band 10.9-12.2 GHz. The design was implemented by using inter-stage configuration, the Class A amplifier was chosen for driver stage i.e. the first amplifier focusing on the gain and the output amplifier conducted at Class AB with more emphasis on output power.

Keywords: Power amplifier, Class AB, Class A, MMIC, 2-stage, X band.

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Authors: Yiannis G. Smirlis

Abstract:

The classification and the prediction of efficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is an important issue, especially in large scale problems or when new units frequently enter the under-assessment set. In this paper, we contribute to the subject by proposing a grid structure based on interval segmentations of the range of values for the inputs and outputs. Such intervals combined, define hyper-rectangles that partition the space of the problem. This structure, exploited by Interval DEA models and a dominance relation, acts as a DEA pre-processor, enabling the classification and prediction of efficiency scores, without applying any DEA models.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, interval DEA, efficiency classification, efficiency prediction.

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Authors: Radouane Iqdour, Abdelouhab Zeroual

Abstract:

The Multi-Layered Perceptron (MLP) Neural networks have been very successful in a number of signal processing applications. In this work we have studied the possibilities and the met difficulties in the application of the MLP neural networks for the prediction of daily solar radiation data. We have used the Polack-Ribière algorithm for training the neural networks. A comparison, in term of the statistical indicators, with a linear model most used in literature, is also performed, and the obtained results show that the neural networks are more efficient and gave the best results.

Keywords: Daily solar radiation, Prediction, MLP neural networks, linear model

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Authors: M. Karimpour, L. Hitihamillage, N. Elkhoury, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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Rail transport authorities around the world have been facing a significant challenge when predicting rail infrastructure maintenance work for a long period of time. Generally, maintenance monitoring and prediction is conducted manually. With the restrictions in economy, the rail transport authorities are in pursuit of improved modern methods, which can provide precise prediction of rail maintenance time and location. The expectation from such a method is to develop models to minimize the human error that is strongly related to manual prediction. Such models will help them in understanding how the track degradation occurs overtime under the change in different conditions (e.g. rail load, rail type, rail profile). They need a well-structured technique to identify the precise time that rail tracks fail in order to minimize the maintenance cost/time and secure the vehicles. The rail track characteristics that have been collected over the years will be used in developing rail track degradation prediction models. Since these data have been collected in large volumes and the data collection is done both electronically and manually, it is possible to have some errors. Sometimes these errors make it impossible to use them in prediction model development. This is one of the major drawbacks in rail track degradation prediction. An accurate model can play a key role in the estimation of the long-term behavior of rail tracks. Accurate models increase the track safety and decrease the cost of maintenance in long term. In this research, a short review of rail track degradation prediction models has been discussed before estimating rail track degradation for the curve sections of Melbourne tram track system using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.

Keywords: ANFIS, MGT, Prediction modeling, rail track degradation.

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Authors: Faith-Michael E. Uzoka, Boluwaji A. Akinnuwesi, Taiwo Amoo, Flora Aladi, Stephen Fashoto, Moses Olaniyan, Joseph Osuji

Abstract:

The overarching aim of this study is to develop a soft-computing system for the differential diagnosis of tropical diseases. These conditions are of concern to health bodies, physicians, and the community at large because of their mortality rates, and difficulties in early diagnosis due to the fact that they present with symptoms that overlap, and thus become ‘confusable’. We report on the first phase of our study, which focuses on the development of a fuzzy cognitive map model for early differential diagnosis of tropical diseases. We used malaria as a case disease to show the effectiveness of the FCM technology as an aid to the medical practitioner in the diagnosis of tropical diseases. Our model takes cognizance of manifested symptoms and other non-clinical factors that could contribute to symptoms manifestations. Our model showed 85% accuracy in diagnosis, as against the physicians’ initial hypothesis, which stood at 55% accuracy. It is expected that the next stage of our study will provide a multi-disease, multi-symptom model that also improves efficiency by utilizing a decision support filter that works on an algorithm, which mimics the physician’s diagnosis process.

Keywords: Medical diagnosis, tropical diseases, fuzzy cognitive map, decision support filters, malaria differential diagnosis.

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Authors: Guangbin Wang, Xue Li

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In this paper, we present parallel alternating two-stage methods for solving linear system Ax=b, where A is a symmetric positive definite matrix. And we give some convergence results of these methods for nonsingular linear system.

Keywords: alternating two-stage, convergence, linear system, parallel.

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Authors: Ramandeep S. Sidhu, Sunil Khullar, Parvinder S. Sandhu, R. P. S. Bedi, Kiranbir Kaur

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In this paper, subtractive clustering based fuzzy inference system approach is used for early detection of faults in the function oriented software systems. This approach has been tested with real time defect datasets of NASA software projects named as PC1 and CM1. Both the code based model and joined model (combination of the requirement and code based metrics) of the datasets are used for training and testing of the proposed approach. The performance of the models is recorded in terms of Accuracy, MAE and RMSE values. The performance of the proposed approach is better in case of Joined Model. As evidenced from the results obtained it can be concluded that Clustering and fuzzy logic together provide a simple yet powerful means to model the earlier detection of faults in the function oriented software systems.

Keywords: Subtractive clustering, fuzzy inference system, fault proneness.

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Authors: Mansour A. Mohamed, George G. Karady, Ali M. Yousef

Abstract:

This paper proposes transient angle stability agents to enhance power system stability. The proposed transient angle stability agents divided into two strategy agents. The first strategy agent is a prediction agent that will predict power system instability. According to the prediction agent-s output, the second strategy agent, which is a control agent, is automatically calculating the amount of active power reduction that can stabilize the system and initiating a control action. The control action considered is turbine fast valving. The proposed strategies are applied to a realistic power system, the IEEE 50- generator system. Results show that the proposed technique can be used on-line for power system instability prediction and control.

Keywords: Multi-agents, Fast Valving, Power System Transient Stability, Prediction methods,

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Authors: Surender Kumar Soni, Dhirendra Pratap Singh

Abstract:

Wireless Sensor Networks can be used to monitor the physical phenomenon in such areas where human approach is nearly impossible. Hence the limited power supply is the major constraint of the WSNs due to the use of non-rechargeable batteries in sensor nodes. A lot of researches are going on to reduce the energy consumption of sensor nodes. Energy map can be used with clustering, data dissemination and routing techniques to reduce the power consumption of WSNs. Energy map can also be used to know which part of the network is going to fail in near future. In this paper, Energy map is constructed using the prediction based approach. Adaptive alpha GM(1,1) model is used as the prediction model. GM(1,1) is being used worldwide in many applications for predicting future values of time series using some past values due to its high computational efficiency and accuracy.

Keywords: Adaptive Alpha GM(1, 1) Model, Energy Map, Prediction Based Data Reduction, Wireless Sensor Networks

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Authors: M. Iommi, G. Losco

Abstract:

Current building sector is focused on reduction of energy requirements, on renewable energy generation and on regeneration of existing urban areas. These targets need to be solved with a systemic approach, considering several aspects simultaneously such as climate conditions, lighting conditions, solar radiation, PV potential, etc. The solar access analysis is an already known method to analyze the solar potentials, but in current years, simulation tools have provided more effective opportunities to perform this type of analysis, in particular in the early design stage. Nowadays, the study of the solar access is related to the easiness of the use of simulation tools, in rapid and easy way, during the design process. This study presents a comparison of three simulation tools, from the point of view of the user, with the aim to highlight differences in the easy-to-use of these tools. Using a real urban context as case study, three tools; Ecotect, Townscope and Heliodon, are tested, performing models and simulations and examining the capabilities and output results of solar access analysis. The evaluation of the ease-to-use of these tools is based on some detected parameters and features, such as the types of simulation, requirements of input data, types of results, etc. As a result, a framework is provided in which features and capabilities of each tool are shown. This framework shows the differences among these tools about functions, features and capabilities. The aim of this study is to support users and to improve the integration of simulation tools for solar access with the design process.

Keywords: Solar access analysis, energy building design tools, urban planning, solar potential.

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Authors: Anjan Kumar Kakati, M. Chandrasekaran, Amitava Mandal, Amit Kumar Singh

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End milling process is one of the common metal cutting operations used for machining parts in manufacturing industry. It is usually performed at the final stage in manufacturing a product and surface roughness of the produced job plays an important role. In general, the surface roughness affects wear resistance, ductility, tensile, fatigue strength, etc., for machined parts and cannot be neglected in design. In the present work an experimental investigation of end milling of aluminium alloy with carbide tool is carried out and the effect of different cutting parameters on the response are studied with three-dimensional surface plots. An artificial neural network (ANN) is used to establish the relationship between the surface roughness and the input cutting parameters (i.e., spindle speed, feed, and depth of cut). The Matlab ANN toolbox works on feed forward back propagation algorithm is used for modeling purpose. 3-12-1 network structure having minimum average prediction error found as best network architecture for predicting surface roughness value. The network predicts surface roughness for unseen data and found that the result/prediction is better. For desired surface finish of the component to be produced there are many different combination of cutting parameters are available. The optimum cutting parameter for obtaining desired surface finish, to maximize tool life is predicted. The methodology is demonstrated, number of problems are solved and algorithm is coded in Matlab®.

Keywords: End milling, Surface roughness, Neural networks.

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Authors: Elnasharty M. A., Abou-Ghanema I. I., Sayed-Ahmed A., A. Abo Elnour

Abstract:

The sequential morphologic changes of rabbit duodenal mucosa-submucosa were studied from primodial stage to birth in 15 fetuses and during the early days of life in 21 rabbit newborns till maturity using light, scanning and transmission electron microscopy. Fetal rabbit duodenum develops from a simple tube of stratified epithelium to a tube containing villus and intervillus regions of simple columnar epithelium. By day 21 of gestation, the first rudimentary villi were appeared and by day 24 the first true villi were appeared. The Crypts of Lieberkuhn did not appear until birth. By the first day of postnatal life the duodenal glands appeared. The histological maturity of the rabbit small intestine occurred one month after birth. In conclusion, at all stages, the sequential morphologic changes of the rabbit small intestine developed to meet the structural and physiological demands during the fetal stage to be prepared to extra uterine life.

Keywords: Duodenum, mucosa, submucosa, morphogenesis, rabbit.

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Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

Abstract:

Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: Compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction.

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Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong

Abstract:

In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.

Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, avalanches, cross-correlation, prediction method.

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Authors: Ulas Vural, M. Ergun Okay, E. Mesut Yildiz

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Telecommunication service providers demand accurate and precise prediction of customer churn probabilities to increase the effectiveness of their customer relation services. The large amount of customer data owned by the service providers is suitable for analysis by machine learning methods. In this study, expenditure data of customers are analyzed by using an artificial neural network (ANN). The ANN model is applied to the data of customers with different billing duration. The proposed model successfully predicts the churn probabilities at 83% accuracy for only three months expenditure data and the prediction accuracy increases up to 89% when the nine month data is used. The experiments also show that the accuracy of ANN model increases on an extended feature set with information of the changes on the bill amounts.

Keywords: Customer relationship management, churn prediction, telecom industry, deep learning, Artificial Neural Networks, ANN.

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Authors: Liping Jing, Michael K. Ng, Tieyong Zeng

Abstract:

Microarray data profiles gene expression on a whole genome scale, therefore, it provides a good way to study associations between gene expression and occurrence or progression of cancer. More and more researchers realized that microarray data is helpful to predict cancer sample. However, the high dimension of gene expressions is much larger than the sample size, which makes this task very difficult. Therefore, how to identify the significant genes causing cancer becomes emergency and also a hot and hard research topic. Many feature selection algorithms have been proposed in the past focusing on improving cancer predictive accuracy at the expense of ignoring the correlations between the features. In this work, a novel framework (named by SGS) is presented for stable gene selection and efficient cancer prediction . The proposed framework first performs clustering algorithm to find the gene groups where genes in each group have higher correlation coefficient, and then selects the significant genes in each group with Bayesian Lasso and important gene groups with group Lasso, and finally builds prediction model based on the shrinkage gene space with efficient classification algorithm (such as, SVM, 1NN, Regression and etc.). Experiment results on real world data show that the proposed framework often outperforms the existing feature selection and prediction methods, say SAM, IG and Lasso-type prediction model.

Keywords: Gene Selection, Cancer Prediction, Lasso, Clustering, Classification.

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Authors: Emel Kızılkaya Aydogan, Mihrimah Ozmen, Yılmaz Delice

Abstract:

In recent days, there is a change and the ongoing development of the telecommunications sector in the global market. In this sector, churn analysis techniques are commonly used for analysing why some customers terminate their service subscriptions prematurely. In addition, customer churn is utmost significant in this sector since it causes to important business loss. Many companies make various researches in order to prevent losses while increasing customer loyalty. Although a large quantity of accumulated data is available in this sector, their usefulness is limited by data quality and relevance. In this paper, a cost-sensitive feature selection framework is developed aiming to obtain the feature reducts to predict customer churn. The framework is a cost based optional pre-processing stage to remove redundant features for churn management. In addition, this cost-based feature selection algorithm is applied in a telecommunication company in Turkey and the results obtained with this algorithm.

Keywords: Churn prediction, data mining, decision-theoretic rough set, feature selection.

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Authors: Grzegorz Ulacha, Ryszard Stasiński

Abstract:

In the paper an effective context based lossless coding technique is presented. Three principal and few auxiliary contexts are defined. The predictor adaptation technique is an improved CoBALP algorithm, denoted CoBALP+. Cumulated predictor error combining 8 bias estimators is calculated. It is shown experimentally that indeed, the new technique is time-effective while it outperforms the well known methods having reasonable time complexity, and is inferior only to extremely computationally complex ones.

Keywords: Adaptive prediction, context coding, image losslesscoding, prediction error bias correction.

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

Abstract:

Detection of incipient abnormal events is important to improve safety and reliability of machine operations and reduce losses caused by failures. Improper set-ups or aligning of parts often leads to severe problems in many machines. The construction of prediction models for predicting faulty conditions is quite essential in making decisions on when to perform machine maintenance. This paper presents a multivariate calibration monitoring approach based on the statistical analysis of machine measurement data. The calibration model is used to predict two faulty conditions from historical reference data. This approach utilizes genetic algorithms (GA) based variable selection, and we evaluate the predictive performance of several prediction methods using real data. The results shows that the calibration model based on supervised probabilistic principal component analysis (SPPCA) yielded best performance in this work. By adopting a proper variable selection scheme in calibration models, the prediction performance can be improved by excluding non-informative variables from their model building steps.

Keywords: Prediction, operation monitoring, on-line data, nonlinear statistical methods, empirical model.

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Authors: K. Sreelakshmi, P. Ramakanthkumar

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Predicting short term wind speed is essential in order to prevent systems in-action from the effects of strong winds. It also helps in using wind energy as an alternative source of energy, mainly for Electrical power generation. Wind speed prediction has applications in Military and civilian fields for air traffic control, rocket launch, ship navigation etc. The wind speed in near future depends on the values of other meteorological variables, such as atmospheric pressure, moisture content, humidity, rainfall etc. The values of these parameters are obtained from a nearest weather station and are used to train various forms of neural networks. The trained model of neural networks is validated using a similar set of data. The model is then used to predict the wind speed, using the same meteorological information. This paper reports an Artificial Neural Network model for short term wind speed prediction, which uses back propagation algorithm.

Keywords: Short term wind speed prediction, Neural networks, Back propagation.

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Authors: T. Wuttipornpun, U. Wangrakdiskul, W. Songserm

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This paper aims to develop an algorithm of finite capacity material requirement planning (FCMRP) system for a multistage assembly flow shop. The developed FCMRP system has two main stages. The first stage is to allocate operations to the first and second priority work centers and also determine the sequence of the operations on each work center. The second stage is to determine the optimal start time of each operation by using a linear programming model. Real data from a factory is used to analyze and evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed FCMRP system and also to guarantee a practical solution to the user. There are five performance measures, namely, the total tardiness, the number of tardy orders, the total earliness, the number of early orders, and the average flow-time. The proposed FCMRP system offers an adjustable solution which is a compromised solution among the conflicting performance measures. The user can adjust the weight of each performance measure to obtain the desired performance. The result shows that the combination of FCMRP NP3 and EDD outperforms other combinations in term of overall performance index. The calculation time for the proposed FCMRP system is about 10 minutes which is practical for the planners of the factory.

Keywords: Material requirement planning, Finite capacity, Linear programming, Permutation, Application in industry.

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Authors: Wang Liguang, Zhang Xueqing

Abstract:

The build-operate-transfer (BOT) project delivery system has provided effective routes to mobilize private sector funds, innovative technologies, management skills and operational efficiencies for public infrastructure development and have been widely used in China during the last 20 years. Many BOT projects in China will be smoothly transferred to the government soon and the transfer stage, which is considered as the last stage, must be studied carefully and handled well to achieve the overall success of BOT projects. There will be many issues faced by both the public sector and private sector in the transfer stage of BOT projects, including project post-assessment, technology and documents transfer, personal training and staff transition, etc. and sometimes additional legislation is needed for future operation and management of facilities. However, most previous studies focused on the bidding, financing, and building and operation stages instead of transfer stage. This research identifies nine key issues in the transfer stage of BOT projects through a comprehensive study on three cases in China, and the expert interview and expert discussion meetings are held to validate the key issues and give detail analysis. A proposed framework of transfer management is prepared based on the experiences derived and lessons drawn from the case studies and expert interview and discussions, which is expected to improve the transfer management of BOT projects in practice.

Keywords: BOT project, key issues, transfer management transfer stage.

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