Search results for: Daily probability model

Authors: D. De-León-Escobedo, D. J. Delgado-Hernández, S. Pérez

Abstract:

A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.

Keywords: Expected life-cycle cost, failure probability, slopes failure, storms.

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Authors: Parham Azimi, Hamid Reza Charmchi

Abstract:

In this research, we have developed a new efficient heuristic algorithm for the dynamic facility layout problem with budget constraint (DFLPB). This heuristic algorithm combines two mathematical programming methods such as discrete event simulation and linear integer programming (IP) to obtain a near optimum solution. In the proposed algorithm, the non-linear model of the DFLP has been changed to a pure integer programming (PIP) model. Then, the optimal solution of the PIP model has been used in a simulation model that has been designed in a similar manner as the DFLP for determining the probability of assigning a facility to a location. After a sufficient number of runs, the simulation model obtains near optimum solutions. Finally, to verify the performance of the algorithm, several test problems have been solved. The results show that the proposed algorithm is more efficient in terms of speed and accuracy than other heuristic algorithms presented in previous works found in the literature.

Keywords: Budget constraint, Dynamic facility layout problem, Integer programming, Simulation

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Authors: M. Kargar, F. Gharbalchi

Abstract:

In this paper a new method is suggested for distributed data-mining by the probability patterns. These patterns use decision trees and decision graphs. The patterns are cared to be valid, novel, useful, and understandable. Considering a set of functions, the system reaches to a good pattern or better objectives. By using the suggested method we will be able to extract the useful information from massive and multi-relational data bases.

Keywords: Data-mining, Decision tree, Decision graph, Pattern, Relationship.

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Authors: Andre A. Keller

Abstract:

The optimal control is one of the possible controllers for a dynamic system, having a linear quadratic regulator and using the Pontryagin-s principle or the dynamic programming method . Stochastic disturbances may affect the coefficients (multiplicative disturbances) or the equations (additive disturbances), provided that the shocks are not too great . Nevertheless, this approach encounters difficulties when uncertainties are very important or when the probability calculus is of no help with very imprecise data. The fuzzy logic contributes to a pragmatic solution of such a problem since it operates on fuzzy numbers. A fuzzy controller acts as an artificial decision maker that operates in a closed-loop system in real time. This contribution seeks to explore the tracking problem and control of dynamic macroeconomic models using a fuzzy learning algorithm. A two inputs - single output (TISO) fuzzy model is applied to the linear fluctuation model of Phillips and to the nonlinear growth model of Goodwin.

Keywords: fuzzy control, macroeconomic model, multiplier - accelerator, nonlinear accelerator, stabilization policy.

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Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

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In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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Authors: Vernie C. Convicto, Henry P. Aringa, Wilson I. Barredo

Abstract:

This study presents a conformational model of the helical structures of globular protein particularly ferritin in the framework of white noise path integral formulation by using Associated Legendre functions, Bessel and convolution of Bessel and trigonometric functions as modulating functions. The model incorporates chirality features of proteins and their helix-turn-helix sequence structural motif.

Keywords: Globular protein, modulating function, white noise, winding probability.

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Authors: Weerachi Sarakorn, I-Ming Tang

Abstract:

A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS is developed. In addition to dividing the population into susceptible (high and low risk), exposed, infected, quarantined, diagnosed and recovered classes, we have included a class called untraced. The model simulates the Gompertz curves which are the best representation of the cumulative numbers of probable SARS cases in Hong Kong and Singapore. The values of the parameters in the model which produces the best fit of the observed data for each city are obtained by using a differential evolution algorithm. It is seen that the values for the parameters needed to simulate the observed daily behaviors of the two epidemics are different.

Keywords: SARS, mathematical modelling, differential evolution algorithm.

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Authors: Axay J Mehta, Hema A Mehta, T.C.Manjunath, C. Ardil

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In this paper, the modelling and design of artificial neural network architecture for load forecasting purposes is investigated. The primary pre-requisite for power system planning is to arrive at realistic estimates of future demand of power, which is known as Load Forecasting. Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) helps in determining the economic, reliable and secure operating strategies for power system. The dependence of load on several factors makes the load forecasting a very challenging job. An over estimation of the load may cause premature investment and unnecessary blocking of the capital where as under estimation of load may result in shortage of equipment and circuits. It is always better to plan the system for the load slightly higher than expected one so that no exigency may arise. In this paper, a load-forecasting model is proposed using a multilayer neural network with an appropriately modified back propagation learning algorithm. Once the neural network model is designed and trained, it can forecast the load of the power system 24 hours ahead on daily basis and can also forecast the cumulative load on daily basis. The real load data that is used for the Artificial Neural Network training was taken from LDC, Gujarat Electricity Board, Jambuva, Gujarat, India. The results show that the load forecasting of the ANN model follows the actual load pattern more accurately throughout the forecasted period.

Keywords: Power system, Load forecasting, Neural Network, Neuron, Stabilization, Network structure, Load.

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Authors: Hadia Abdel Aziz, Raghda El Ebrashi

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Business models are shaped by their design space or the environment they are designed to be implemented in. The rapidly changing economic, technological, political, regulatory and market external environment severely affects business logic. This is particularly true for social enterprises whose core mission is to transform their environments, and thus, their whole business logic revolves around the interchange between the enterprise and the environment. The context in which social business operates imposes different business design constraints while at the same time, open up new design opportunities. It is also affected to a great extent by the impact that successful enterprises generate; a continuous loop of interaction that needs to be managed through a dynamic capability in order to generate a lasting powerful impact. This conceptual research synthesizes and analyzes literature on social enterprise, social enterprise business models, business model innovation, business model design, and the open system view theory to propose a new business model design process for social enterprises that takes into account the critical role of environmental factors. This process would help the social enterprise develop a dynamic capability that ensures the alignment of its business model to its environmental context, thus, maximizing its probability of success.

Keywords: Social enterprise, business model, business model design.

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Authors: Fatemeh Mosalman Yazdi

Abstract:

One of the most important requirements for the operation and planning activities of an electrical utility is the prediction of load for the next hour to several days out, known as short term load forecasting. This paper presents the development of an artificial neural network based short-term load forecasting model. The model can forecast daily load profiles with a load time of one day for next 24 hours. In this method can divide days of year with using average temperature. Groups make according linearity rate of curve. Ultimate forecast for each group obtain with considering weekday and weekend. This paper investigates effects of temperature and humidity on consuming curve. For forecasting load curve of holidays at first forecast pick and valley and then the neural network forecast is re-shaped with the new data. The ANN-based load models are trained using hourly historical. Load data and daily historical max/min temperature and humidity data. The results of testing the system on data from Yazd utility are reported.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Holiday forecasting, pickand valley load forecasting, Short-term load-forecasting.

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Authors: Arash Kosari, Ali Araghi

Abstract:

A mathematical model for an optical-fiber communication channel is developed which results in an expression that calculates the throughput and loss of the corresponding link. The data are assumed to be transmitted by using of separate photons with different polarizations. The derived model also shows the dependency of data throughput with length of the channel and depolarization factor. It is observed that absorption of photons affects the throughput in a more intensive way in comparison with that of depolarization. Apart from that, the probability of depolarization and the absorption of radiated photons are obtained.

Keywords: Absorption, data throughput, depolarization, optical fiber.

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Authors: Vijay Shankar, C.S.P. Ojha, K.S. Hari Prasad

Abstract:

Maize and Indian mustard are significant crops in semi-arid climate zones of India. Improved water management requires precise scheduling of irrigation, which in turn requires an accurate computation of daily crop evapotranspiration (ETc). Daily crop evapotranspiration comes as a product of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and the growth stage specific crop coefficients modified for daily variation. The first objective of present study is to develop crop coefficients Kc for Maize and Indian mustard. The estimated values of Kc for maize at the four crop growth stages (initial, development, mid-season, and late season) are 0.55, 1.08, 1.25, and 0.75, respectively, and for Indian mustard the Kc values at the four growth stages are 0.3, 0.6, 1.12, and 0.35, respectively. The second objective of the study is to compute daily crop evapotranspiration from ET0 and crop coefficients. Average daily ETc of maize varied from about 2.5 mm/d in the early growing period to > 6.5 mm/d at mid season. The peak ETc of maize is 8.3 mm/d and it occurred 64 days after sowing at the reproductive growth stage when leaf area index was 4.54. In the case of Indian mustard, average ETc is 1 mm/d at the initial stage, >1.8 mm/d at mid season and achieves a peak value of 2.12 mm/d on 56 days after sowing. Improved schedules of irrigation have been simulated based on daily crop evapo-transpiration and field measured data. Simulation shows a close match between modeled and field moisture status prevalent during crop season.

Keywords: Crop coefficient, Crop evapotranspiration, Field moisture, Irrigation Scheduling

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Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski

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The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life-cycle cost of an electric motor.

Keywords: Initial Cost, Life-cycle cost, Maintenance Cost, Reliability.

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Authors: N. A. Salim, M. M. Othman, I. Musirin, M. S. Serwan

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Hidden failure in a protection system has been recognized as one of the main reasons which may cause to a power system instability leading to a system cascading collapse. This paper presents a computationally systematic approach used to obtain the estimated average probability of a system cascading collapse by considering the effect of probability hidden failure in a protection system. The estimated average probability of a system cascading collapse is then used to determine the severe loading condition contributing to the higher risk of critical system cascading collapse. This information is essential to the system utility since it will assist the operator to determine the highest point of increased system loading condition prior to the event of critical system cascading collapse.

Keywords: Critical system cascading collapse, protection system hidden failure, severe loading condition.

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Authors: Shamsuddin Ahmed, M. G. M. Khan, Biman Prasad, Avlin Prasad

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The focus of this paper is to construct daily time series exchange rate forecast models of Samoan Tala/USD and Tala/AUD during the year 2008 to 2012 with neural network The performance of the models was measured by using varies error functions such as Root Square mean error (RSME), Mean absolute error (MAE), and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Our empirical findings suggest that AR (1) model is an effective tool to forecast the Tala/USD and Tala/AUD.

Keywords: Neural Network Forecasting Model, Autoregressive time series, Exchange rate, Tala/AUD, winters model.

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Authors: A. K. Abd El-Aleem, W. F. Abd El-wahed, N. A. Ismail, F. A. Torkey

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This study suggests a model of a new set of evaluation criteria that will be used to measure the efficiency of real-world E-commerce websites. Evaluation criteria include design, usability and performance for websites, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique has been used to measure the websites efficiency. An efficient Web site is defined as a site that generates the most outputs, using the smallest amount of inputs. Inputs refer to measurements representing the amount of effort required to build, maintain and perform the site. Output is amount of traffic the site generates. These outputs are measured as the average number of daily hits and the average number of daily unique visitors.

Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, E-commerce, Efficiency.

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Authors: Andy Handouyahia, Tony Haddad, Frank Eaton

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Recent quasi-experimental evaluation of the Canadian Active Labour Market Policies (ALMP) by Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC) has provided an opportunity to examine alternative methods to estimating the incremental effects of Employment Benefits and Support Measures (EBSMs) on program participants. The focus of this paper is to assess the efficiency and robustness of inverse probability weighting (IPW) relative to kernel matching (KM) in the estimation of program effects. To accomplish this objective, the authors compare pairs of 1,080 estimates, along with their associated standard errors, to assess which type of estimate is generally more efficient and robust. In the interest of practicality, the authorsalso document the computationaltime it took to produce the IPW and KM estimates, respectively.

Keywords: Treatment effect, causal inference, observational studies, Propensity score based matching, Kernel Matching, Inverse Probability Weighting, Estimation methods for incremental effect.

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Authors: Ethar H. Khalil, Bahaa I. Kazem

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In this work a software simulation model has been proposed for two driven wheels mobile robot path planning; that can navigate in dynamic environment with static distributed obstacles. The work involves utilizing Bezier curve method in a proposed N order matrix form; for engineering the mobile robot path. The Bezier curve drawbacks in this field have been diagnosed. Two directions: Up and Right function has been proposed; Probability Recursive Function (PRF) to overcome those drawbacks. PRF functionality has been developed through a proposed; obstacle detection function, optimization function which has the capability of prediction the optimum path without comparison between all feasible paths, and N order Bezier curve function that ensures the drawing of the obtained path. The simulation results that have been taken showed; the mobile robot travels successfully from starting point and reaching its goal point. All obstacles that are located in its way have been avoided. This navigation is being done successfully using the proposed PRF techniques.

Keywords: Mobile robot, path planning, Bezier curve.

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Authors: R. Kandiah, K. Miyamoto

Abstract:

In Sri Lanka, the Jaffna area is a high drought affected area and depends mainly on groundwater aquifers for water needs. Water for daily activities is extracted from wells. As households manually extract water from the wells, it is not drawn from mid evening to early morning. The water inflow at night provides the maximum water level that decreases during the daytime due to extraction. The storage volume of water in wells is limited or at its lowest level during the dry season. This study analyzes the domestic water budget during the dry season in the Jaffna area. In order to evaluate the water inflow rate into wells, storage volume and extraction volume from wells over time, water pressure is measured at the bottom of three wells, which are located in coastal area denoted as well A, in nonspecific area denoted as well B, and agricultural area denoted as well C. The water quality at the wells A, B, and C, are mostly fresh, modest fresh, and saline respectively. From the monitoring, we can find that the daily inflow amount of water into the wells and daily water extraction depend on each other, that is, higher extraction yields higher inflow. And, in the dry season, the daily inflow volume and the daily extraction volume of each well are almost in balance.

Keywords: Domestic water, water balance, water budget, ground water, shallow well.

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Authors: Kong Fah Tee, Lutfor Rahman Khan, Hongshuang Li

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An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.

Keywords: Underground pipelines, Probability of failure, Reliability and Subset Simulation.

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Authors: Fenglong Guo, Dingcheng Wang

Abstract:

This paper studies ruin probabilities in two discrete-time risk models with premiums, claims and rates of interest modelled by three autoregressive moving average processes. Generalized Lundberg inequalities for ruin probabilities are derived by using recursive technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the applications of these probability inequalities.

Keywords: Lundberg inequality, NWUC, Renewal recursive technique, Ruin probability

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Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: Weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo Simulation, permeability coefficient.

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Authors: Mujtaba Roshan, John A. Schormans

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Quality of Experience (QoE) drives churn in the broadband networks industry, and good QoE plays a large part in the retention of customers. QoE is known to be affected by the Quality of Service (QoS) factors packet loss probability (PLP), delay and delay jitter caused by the network. Earlier results have shown that the relationship between these QoS factors and QoE is non-linear, and may vary from application to application. We use the network emulator Netem as the basis for experimentation, and evaluate how QoE varies as we change the emulated QoS metrics. Focusing on Video-on-Demand, we discovered that the reported QoE may differ widely for users of different age groups, and that the most demanding age group (the youngest) can require an order of magnitude lower PLP to achieve the same QoE than is required by the most widely studied age group of users. We then used a bottleneck TCP model to evaluate the capacity cost of achieving an order of magnitude decrease in PLP, and found it be (almost always) a 3-fold increase in link capacity that was required.

Keywords: Quality of experience, quality of service, packet loss probability, network capacity.

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Authors: Mohammad Rakibul Islam

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In this paper, a Gaussian multiple input multiple output multiple eavesdropper (MIMOME) channel is considered where a transmitter communicates to a receiver in the presence of an eavesdropper. We present a technique for determining the secrecy capacity of the multiple input multiple output (MIMO) channel under Gaussian noise. We transform the degraded MIMOME channel into multiple single input multiple output (SIMO) Gaussian wire-tap channels and then use scalar approach to convert it into two equivalent multiple input single output (MISO) channels. The secrecy capacity model is then developed for the condition where the channel state information (CSI) for main channel only is known to the transmitter. The results show that the secret communication is possible when the eavesdropper channel noise is greater than a cutoff noise level. The outage probability is also analyzed of secrecy capacity is also analyzed. The effect of fading and outage probability is also analyzed.

Keywords: Secrecy capacity, MIMO, wiretap channel, covariance matrix, fading.

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Authors: H. Hosseini, M. Javadi, M. Moghiman, M. H. Ghodsi Rad

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Carbon disulfide is widely used for the production of viscose rayon, rubber, and other organic materials and it is a feedstock for the synthesis of sulfuric acid. The objective of this paper is to analyze possibilities for efficient production of CS2 from sour natural gas reformation (H2SMR) (2H2S+CH4 =CS2 +4H2) . Also, the effect of H2S to CH4 feed ratio and reaction temperature on carbon disulfide production is investigated numerically in a reforming reactor. The chemical reaction model is based on an assumed Probability Density Function (PDF) parameterized by the mean and variance of mixture fraction and β-PDF shape. The results show that the major factors influencing CS2 production are reactor temperature. The yield of carbon disulfide increases with increasing H2S to CH4 feed gas ratio (H2S/CH4≤4). Also the yield of C(s) increases with increasing temperature until the temperature reaches to 1000°K, and then due to increase of CS2 production and consumption of C(s), yield of C(s) drops with further increase in the temperature. The predicted CH4 and H2S conversion and yield of carbon disulfide are in good agreement with result of Huang and TRaissi.

Keywords: Carbon disulfide, sour natural gas, H2SMR, probability density function.

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Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, Woo Young Jung

Abstract:

The failure of roof cladding mostly occurs due to the failing of the connection between claddings and purlins, which is the pull-out of the screw connecting the two parts when the pull-out load, i.e. typhoon, is higher than the resistance of the connection screw. As typhoon disasters in Korea are constantly on the rise, probability risk assessment (PRA) has become a vital tool to evaluate the performance of civil structures. In this study, we attempted to determine the fragility of roof cladding with the screw connection. Experimental study was performed to evaluate the pull-out resistance of screw joints between honeycomb panels and back frames. Subsequently, by means of Monte Carlo Simulation method, probability of failure for these types of roof cladding was determined. The results that the failure of roof cladding was depends on their location on the roof, for example, the edge most panel has the highest probability of failure.

Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, roof cladding, screw pull-out strength, wind fragility

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Authors: HoYoung Son, Ki Young Kim, Woo Young Jung

Abstract:

This study investigated the change of weir structure performances when durability of concrete, which is the main material of weir structure, decreased due to their aging by mean of seismic fragility analysis. In the analysis, it was assumed that the elastic modulus of concrete was reduced by 10% in order to account for their aged deterioration. Additionally, the analysis of seismic fragility was based on Monte Carlo Simulation method combined with a 2D nonlinear finite element in ABAQUS platform with the consideration of deterioration of concrete. Finally, the comparison of seismic fragility of model pre- and post-deterioration was made to study the performance of weir. Results show that the probability of failure in moderate damage for deteriorated model was found to be larger than pre-deterioration model when peak ground acceleration (PGA) passed 0.4 g.

Keywords: Weir, FEM, concrete, fragility, aging.

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Authors: S.K. Satpathy, S.K. Nayak, K. K. Nagwanshi, S. Panda, C. Ardil

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Image restoration involves elimination of noise. Filtering techniques were adopted so far to restore images since last five decades. In this paper, we consider the problem of image restoration degraded by a blur function and corrupted by random noise. A method for reducing additive noise in images by explicit analysis of local image statistics is introduced and compared to other noise reduction methods. The proposed method, which makes use of an a priori noise model, has been evaluated on various types of images. Bayesian based algorithms and technique of image processing have been described and substantiated with experimentation using MATLAB.

Keywords: Image Restoration, Probability DensityFunction (PDF), Neural Networks, Bayesian Classifier.

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Authors: Jaime Martín-de-Nicolás, David Mata-Moya, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores

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Ship detection is nowadays quite an important issue in tasks related to sea traffic control, fishery management and ship search and rescue. Although it has traditionally been carried out by patrol ships or aircrafts, coverage and weather conditions and sea state can become a problem. Synthetic aperture radars can surpass these coverage limitations and work under any climatological condition. A fast CFAR ship detector based on a robust statistical modeling of sea clutter with respect to sea states in SAR images is used. In this paper, the minimum SNR required to obtain a given detection probability with a given false alarm rate for any sea state is determined. A Gaussian target model using real SAR data is considered. Results show that SNR does not depend heavily on the class considered. Provided there is some variation in the backscattering of targets in SAR imagery, the detection probability is limited and a post-processing stage based on morphology would be suitable.

Keywords: SAR, generalized gamma distribution, detection curves, radar detection.

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Authors: Amir Alani, Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Anna Romanova, Asaad Faramarzi

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Pipelines are extensively used engineering structures which convey fluid from one place to another. Most of the time, pipelines are placed underground and are encumbered by soil weight and traffic loads. Corrosion of pipe material is the most common form of pipeline deterioration and should be considered in both the strength and serviceability analysis of pipes. The study in this research focuses on concrete pipes in sewage systems (concrete sewers). This research firstly investigates how to involve the effect of corrosion as a time dependent process of deterioration in the structural and failure analysis of this type of pipe. Then three probabilistic time dependent reliability analysis methods including the first passage probability theory, the gamma distributed degradation model and the Monte Carlo simulation technique are discussed and developed. Sensitivity analysis indexes which can be used to identify the most important parameters that affect pipe failure are also discussed. The reliability analysis methods developed in this paper contribute as rational tools for decision makers with regard to the strengthening and rehabilitation of existing pipelines. The results can be used to obtain a cost-effective strategy for the management of the sewer system.

Keywords: Reliability analysis, service life prediction, Monte Carlo simulation method, first passage probability theory, gamma distributed degradation model.

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