Search results for: Water supply systems.

Authors: Péter Restás, Andrea Czibor, Zsolt Péter Szabó

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Purpose: This article aims to rethink the phenomena of employee behavior as a product of a system. Both organizational culture and Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory emphasize that individual behavior depends on the specific system and the unique organizational culture. These two major theories are both represented in the field of organizational studies; however, they are rarely used together for the comprehensive understanding of workplace behavior. Methodology: By reviewing the literature we use key concepts stemming from organizational culture and CAS theory in order to show the similarities between these theories and create an enriched understanding of employee behavior. Findings: a) Workplace behavior is defined here as social cognition issue. b) Organizations are discussed here as complex systems, and cultures which drive and dictate the cognitive processes of agents in the system. c) Culture gives CAS theory a context which lets us see organizations not just as ever-changing and unpredictable, but as such systems that aim to create and maintain stability by recurring behavior. Conclusion: Applying the knowledge from culture and CAS theory sheds light on our present understanding of employee behavior, also emphasizes the importance of novel ways in organizational research and management.

Keywords: Complex adaptive systems theory, employee behavior, organizational culture, stability.

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Authors: Sachin Vrajlal Rajani, Vivek Pandya, Ankit Suvariya

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Green and renewable energy is getting extraordinary consideration today, because of ecological concerns made by blazing of fossil powers. Photovoltaic and wind power generation are the basic decisions for delivering power in this respects. Producing power by the sun based photovoltaic systems is known to the world, yet control makers may get confounded to pick between on-grid and off-grid systems. In this exploration work, an endeavor is made to compare the off-grid (stand-alone) and on-grid (grid-connected) frameworks. The work presents relative examination, between two distinctive PV frameworks situated at V.V.P. Engineering College, Rajkot. The first framework is 100 kW remain solitary and the second is 60 kW network joined. The real-time parameters compared are; output voltage, load current, power in-flow, power output, performance ratio, yield factor, and capacity factor. The voltage changes and the power variances in both frameworks are given exceptional consideration and the examination is made between the two frameworks to judge the focal points and confinements of both the frameworks.

Keywords: Standalone PV systems, grid connected PV systems, comparison, real time data analysis.

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Authors: Mst Ilme Faridatul, Bo Wu

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Multi-temporal urban land cover mapping is of paramount importance for monitoring urban sprawl and managing the ecological environment. For diversified urban activities, it is challenging to map land covers in a complex urban environment. Spectral indices have proved to be effective for mapping urban land covers. To improve multi-temporal urban land cover classification and mapping, we evaluate the performance of three spectral indices, e.g. modified normalized difference bare-land index (MNDBI), tasseled cap water and vegetation index (TCWVI) and shadow index (ShDI). The MNDBI is developed to evaluate its performance of enhancing urban impervious areas by separating bare lands. A tasseled cap index, TCWVI is developed to evaluate its competence to detect vegetation and water simultaneously. The ShDI is developed to maximize the spectral difference between shadows of skyscrapers and water and enhance water detection. First, this paper presents a comparative analysis of three spectral indices using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM), Thematic Mapper (TM) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) data. Second, optimized thresholds of the spectral indices are imputed to classify land covers, and finally, their performance of enhancing multi-temporal urban land cover mapping is assessed. The results indicate that the spectral indices are competent to enhance multi-temporal urban land cover mapping and achieves an overall classification accuracy of 93-96%.

Keywords: Land cover, mapping, multi-temporal, spectral indices.

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Authors: Alexandru George Floares

Abstract:

Chronic hepatitis B can evolve to cirrhosis and liver cancer. Interferon is the only effective treatment, for carefully selected patients, but it is very expensive. Some of the selection criteria are based on liver biopsy, an invasive, costly and painful medical procedure. Therefore, developing efficient non-invasive selection systems, could be in the patients benefit and also save money. We investigated the possibility to create intelligent systems to assist the Interferon therapeutical decision, mainly by predicting with acceptable accuracy the results of the biopsy. We used a knowledge discovery in integrated medical data - imaging, clinical, and laboratory data. The resulted intelligent systems, tested on 500 patients with chronic hepatitis B, based on C5.0 decision trees and boosting, predict with 100% accuracy the results of the liver biopsy. Also, by integrating the other patients selection criteria, they offer a non-invasive support for the correct Interferon therapeutic decision. To our best knowledge, these decision systems outperformed all similar systems published in the literature, and offer a realistic opportunity to replace liver biopsy in this medical context.

Keywords: Interferon, chronic hepatitis B, intelligent virtualbiopsy.

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Authors: Sachin Kumar, Vivek Tiwari, Goutam Dutta

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The paper investigates parallel channel instabilities of natural circulation boiling water reactor. A thermal-hydraulic model is developed to simulate two-phase flow behavior in the natural circulation boiling water reactor (NCBWR) with the incorporation of ex-core components and recirculation loop such as steam separator, down-comer, lower-horizontal section and upper-horizontal section and then, numerical analysis is carried out for parallel channel instabilities of the reactor undergoing both in-phase and out-of-phase modes of oscillations. To analyze the relative effect on stability of the reactor due to inclusion of various ex-core components and recirculation loop, marginal stable point is obtained at a particular inlet enthalpy of the reactor core without the inclusion of ex-core components and recirculation loop and then with the inclusion of the same. Numerical simulations are also conducted to determine the relative dominance between two modes of oscillations i.e. in-phase and out-of-phase. Simulations are also carried out when the channels are subjected to asymmetric power distribution keeping the inlet enthalpy same.

Keywords: Asymmetric power distribution, Density wave oscillations, In-phase and out-of-phase modes of instabilities, Natural circulation boiling water reactor

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Authors: Warachate Khobjai, Suriyan Sukati, Khemjira Jarmkom, Pattaranut Eakwaropas, Surachai Techaoei

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The propose of this study was to investigate in vitro thrombolytic activity of Zingiber cassumunar Roxb. and Prasaplai, a Thai herbal formulation of Z. cassumunar Roxb. Herbs were extracted with boiling water and concentrated by lyophilization. To observe their thrombolytic potential, an in vitro clot lysis method was applied where streptokinase and sterile distilled water were used as positive and negative controls, respectively. Crude aqueous extracts from Z. cassumunar Roxb. and Prasaplai formula showed significant thrombolytic activity by clot lysis of 17.90% and 25.21%, respectively, compared to the negative control water (5.16%) while the standard streptokinase revealed 64.78% clot lysis. These findings suggest that Z. cassumunar Roxb. exhibits moderate thrombolytic activity and cloud play an important role in the thrombolytic properties of Prasaplai formula. However, further study should be done to observe in vivo clot dissolving potential and to isolate active component(s) of these extracts.

Keywords: Aqueous extract, prasaplai formula, thrombolytic activity, Zingiber cassumunar Roxb.

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Authors: Reza Sedaghati, Mojtaba Hakimzadeh, Abdolmohamad Davodi, Navid Javidtash

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The advent of Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) is giving rise to a new family of power electronic equipment emerging for controlling and optimizing the performance of power system, e.g. STATCOM. Static synchronous Compensator (STATCOM) is a commonly used FACTS device and has been successfully applied in power systems. In this sense, superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) in integration with a static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) is capable of supplying power systems with both active and reactive powers simultaneously and very rapidly, and thus is able to enhance the security dramatically. In this paper the structure and characteristics of the STATCOM/SMES is proposed. In addition, using a proper control scheme, STATCOM/ SMES is tested on an IEEE 3-bus system and more effective performance of the presented STATCOM/SMES compensator is evaluated with alone STATCOM through the dynamic simulation by using PSCAD/EMTDC software.

Keywords: STATCOM/SMES, Oscillation Damping, Control, Power System.

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Authors: Ali M. Alakeel

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Load balancing in distributed computer systems is the process of redistributing the work load among processors in the system to improve system performance. Most of previous research in using fuzzy logic for the purpose of load balancing has only concentrated in utilizing fuzzy logic concepts in describing processors load and tasks execution length. The responsibility of the fuzzy-based load balancing process itself, however, has not been discussed and in most reported work is assumed to be performed in a distributed fashion by all nodes in the network. This paper proposes a new fuzzy dynamic load balancing algorithm for homogenous distributed systems. The proposed algorithm utilizes fuzzy logic in dealing with inaccurate load information, making load distribution decisions, and maintaining overall system stability. In terms of control, we propose a new approach that specifies how, when, and by which node the load balancing is implemented. Our approach is called Centralized-But-Distributed (CBD).

Keywords: Dynamic load balancing, fuzzy logic, distributed systems, algorithm.

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Authors: C. Matasane, C. Dwarika, R. Naidoo

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The mathematical analysis on radiation obtained and the development of the solar photovoltaic (PV) array groundwater pumping is needed in the rural areas of Thohoyandou for sizing and power performance subject to the climate conditions within the area. A simple methodology approach is developed for the directed coupled solar, controller and submersible ground water pump system. The system consists of a PV array, pump controller and submerged pump, battery backup and charger controller. For this reason, the theoretical solar radiation is obtained for optimal predictions and system performance in order to achieve different design and operating parameters. Here the examination of the PV schematic module in a Direct Current (DC) application is used for obtainable maximum solar power energy for water pumping. In this paper, a simple efficient photovoltaic water pumping system is presented with its theoretical studies and mathematical modeling of photovoltaics (PV) system.

Keywords: Renewable energy sources, solar groundwater pumping, theoretical and mathematical analysis of photovoltaic (PV) system, theoretical solar radiation.

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Authors: Imelda Smit

Abstract:

Systems Analysis and Design is a key subject in Information Technology courses, but students do not find it easy to cope with, since it is not “precise" like programming and not exact like Mathematics. It is a subject working with many concepts, modeling ideas into visual representations and then translating the pictures into a real life system. To complicate matters users who are not necessarily familiar with computers need to give their inputs to ensure that they get the system the need. Systems Analysis and Design also covers two fields, namely Analysis, focusing on the analysis of the existing system and Design, focusing on the design of the new system. To be able to test the analysis and design of a system, it is necessary to develop a system or at least a prototype of the system to test the validity of the analysis and design. The skills necessary in each aspect differs vastly. Project Management Skills, Database Knowledge and Object Oriented Principles are all necessary. In the context of a developing country where students enter tertiary education underprepared and the digital divide is alive and well, students need to be motivated to learn the necessary skills, get an opportunity to test it in a “live" but protected environment – within the framework of a university. The purpose of this article is to improve the learning experience in Systems Analysis and Design through reviewing the underlying teaching principles used, the teaching tools implemented, the observations made and the reflections that will influence future developments in Systems Analysis and Design. Action research principles allows the focus to be on a few problematic aspects during a particular semester.

Keywords: Action Research, Project Development, Systems Analysis and Design, Technology in Teaching.

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Authors: Ahmad Salman

Abstract:

Electronic Response Systems such as Kahoot, Poll Everywhere, and Google Classroom are gaining a lot of popularity when surveying audiences in events, meetings, and classroom. The reason is mainly because of the ease of use and the convenience these tools bring since they provide mobile applications with a simple user interface. In this paper, we present a case study on the effectiveness of using Electronic Response Systems on student participation and learning experience in a classroom. We use a polling application for class exercises in two different technology-oriented classes. We evaluate the effectiveness of the usage of the polling applications through statistical analysis of the students performance in these two classes and compare them to the performances of students who took the same classes without using the polling application for class participation. Our results show an increase in the performances of the students who used the Electronic Response System when compared to those who did not by an average of 11%.

Keywords: Interactive learning, classroom technology, electronic response systems, polling applications, learning evaluation.

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Authors: Chen Wu, Lijuan Wang

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Some invariant properties of incomplete information systems homomorphism are studied in this paper. Demand conditions of tolerance class, attribute reduction, indispensable attribute and dispensable attribute being invariant under homomorphism in incomplete information system are revealed and discussed. The existing condition of endohomomorphism on an incomplete information system is also explored. It establishes some theoretical foundations for further investigations on incomplete information systems in rough set theory, like in information systems.

Keywords: Attribute reduction, homomorphism, incomplete information system, rough set, tolerance relation.

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Authors: Samir K. Deshmukh, Mayur M. Tajane

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In this work Membrane Distillation is applied to concentrate orange Juice. Clarified orange juice (11o Brix) obtained from fresh fruits and a sugar solution was subjected to membrane distillation. The experiments were performed on a flat sheet module using orange juice and sucrose solution as feeds. The concentration of a sucrose solution, used as a model fruit juice and also orange juice, was carried out in a direct contact membrane distillation using hydrophobic PTFE membrane of pore size 0.2 μm and porosity 70%. Surface modification of PTFE membrane has been carried out by treating membrane with alcohol and water solution to make it hydrophilic and then hydrophobicity was regained by drying. The influences of the feed temperature, feed concentration, flow rate, operating time on the permeate flux were studied for treated and non treated membrane. In this work treated and non treated membrane were compared in terms of water flux, Within the tested range, MD with surface modified membrane the water flux has been significantly improved by treating the membrane surface.

Keywords: Membrane Distillation, Surface Modification, Orange Juice. Polytetrafluoroethylene.

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Authors: Camila da Silva, Simone Belorte de Andrade, Vitor Augusto dos Santos Garcia, Vladimir Ferreira Cabral, J. Vladimir Oliveira Lúcio Cardozo-Filho

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In the present study, the non-catalytic transesterification of soybean oil in continuous mode using supercritical ethanol were investigated. Experiments were performed in a packed-bed tubular reactor (PBTR) and variable studied were reaction temperature (523 K to 598 K), pressure (10 MPa to 20 MPa), oil to ethanol molar ratio (1:10 to 1:40) and water concentration (0 wt% to 10 wt% in ethanol). Results showed that ethyl esters yields obtained in the PBTR were higher (> 20 wt%) than those verified in a tubular reactor (TR), due to improved mass transfer conditions attained in the PBTR. Results demonstrated that temperature, pressure, oil to ethanol molar ratio and water concentration had a positive effect on fatty acid ethyl esters (FAEE) production in the experimental range investigated, with appreciable reaction yields (90 wt%) achieved at 598 K, 20 MPa, oil to ethanol molar ratio of 1:40 and 10 wt% of water concentration.

Keywords: Packed bed reactor, ethyl esters, continuous process, catalyst-free process.

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

Abstract:

An adaptive nonparametric method is proposed for stable real-time detection of seismoacoustic sources in multichannel C-OTDR systems with a significant number of channels. This method guarantees given upper boundaries for probabilities of Type I and Type II errors. Properties of the proposed method are rigorously proved. The results of practical applications of the proposed method in a real C-OTDR-system are presented in this report.

Keywords: Adaptive detection, change point, interval estimation, guaranteed detection, multichannel monitoring systems.

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Authors: Ondřej Lufinka, Jan Kadeřábek, Juraj Prstek, Jiří Skála, Kamil Kosturik

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This paper deals with the problem of using Autonomous Robotic Platforms (ARP) for the ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) testing in automotive. There are different possibilities of the testing already in development and lately, the ARP are beginning to be used more and more widely. ARP discussed in this paper explores the hardware and software design possibilities related to the field of embedded systems. The paper focuses in its chapters on the introduction of the problem in general, then it describes the proposed prototype concept and its principles from the embedded HW and SW point of view. It talks about the key features that can be used for the innovation of these platforms (e.g., modularity, omnidirectional movement, common and non-traditional sensors used for localization, synchronization of more platforms and cars together or safety mechanisms). In the end, the future possible development of the project is discussed as well.

Keywords: ADAS Systems, autonomous robotic platform, embedded systems, hardware, localization, modularity, multiple robots synchronization, omnidirectional movement, safety mechanisms, software.

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Authors: Ana Paula P. dos Santos, Claudia R. Andrade, Edson L. Zaparoli

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Gas turbine air inlet cooling is a useful method for increasing output for regions where significant power demand and highest electricity prices occur during the warm months. Inlet air cooling increases the power output by taking advantage of the gas turbine-s feature of higher mass flow rate when the compressor inlet temperature decreases. Different methods are available for reducing gas turbine inlet temperature. There are two basic systems currently available for inlet cooling. The first and most cost-effective system is evaporative cooling. Evaporative coolers make use of the evaporation of water to reduce the gas turbine-s inlet air temperature. The second system employs various ways to chill the inlet air. In this method, the cooling medium flows through a heat exchanger located in the inlet duct to remove heat from the inlet air. However, the evaporative cooling is limited by wet-bulb temperature while the chilling can cool the inlet air to temperatures that are lower than the wet bulb temperature. In the present work, a thermodynamic model of a gas turbine is built to calculate heat rate, power output and thermal efficiency at different inlet air temperature conditions. Computational results are compared with ISO conditions herein called "base-case". Therefore, the two cooling methods are implemented and solved for different inlet conditions (inlet temperature and relative humidity). Evaporative cooler and absorption chiller systems results show that when the ambient temperature is extremely high with low relative humidity (requiring a large temperature reduction) the chiller is the more suitable cooling solution. The net increment in the power output as a function of the temperature decrease for each cooling method is also obtained.

Keywords: Absorption chiller, evaporative cooling, gas turbine, turbine inlet cooling.

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Authors: Liyuan Wang, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

In this paper, the design problem of state estimator for neural networks with the mixed time-varying delays are investigated by constructing appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals and using some effective mathematical techniques. In order to derive several conditions to guarantee the estimation error systems to be globally exponential stable, we transform the considered systems into the neural-type time-delay systems. Then with a set of linear inequalities(LMIs), we can obtain the stable criteria. Finally, three numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness and less conservatism of the proposed criterion.

Keywords: State estimator, Neural networks, Globally exponential stability.

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Authors: D. P. Rahardja, M. Rahman Hakim, V. Sri Lestari

Abstract:

An experiment was conducted to elucidate the effects of turmeric powder supplementation on egg production performance of old laying hens (80 weeks of age). There were 40 hens of Hysex Brown strain used in the study. They were caged individually, and randomly divided into 4 treatment groups of diet containing 0 (control), 1, 2 and 4 % oven dried turmeric powder for 3 periods of 4 weeks; Egg production (% hen day) and feed intake of the 4 treatment groups at the commencement of the experiment were not significantly different. In addition to egg production performance (% and egg weight), feed and water intakes were measured daily, and cholesterol content of the whole egg was determined. The results indicated that feed intakes of the hen were significantly lowered when 4% turmeric powder supplemented, while there were no significant changes in water intakes. Egg production were significantly increased and maintained at a higher level by turmeric powder supplementation up to 4% compared with the control, while the weight of eggs were not significantly affected. The research markedly demonstrated that supplementation of turmeric powder up to 4% could improve and maintain egg production performance of the old laying hen at a higher level with a lower cholesterol content. 

Keywords: Curcumin, feed and water intake, old laying hen, egg production.

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Authors: Md. Mahmudul Hasan

Abstract:

Wavelet analysis has some strong advantages over Fourier analysis, as it allows a time-frequency domain analysis, allowing optimal resolution and flexibility. As a result, they have been satisfactorily applied in almost all the fields of communication systems including OFDM which is a strong candidate for next generation of wireless technology. In this paper, the performances of wavelet based Multiuser Multiple Input and Multiple Output Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (MU-MIMO OFDM) systems are analyzed in terms of BER. It has been shown that the wavelet based systems outperform the classical FFT based systems. This analysis also unfolds an interesting result, where wavelet based OFDM system will have a constant error performance using Regularized Channel Inversion (RCI) beamforming for any number of users, and outperforms in all possible scenario in a multiuser environment. An extensive computer simulations show that a PAPR reduction of up to 6.8dB can be obtained with M=64.

Keywords: Wavelet Based OFDM, Optimal Beam-forming, Multiuser MIMO OFDM, Signal to Leakage Ratio.

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Authors: Mohammad Saleh Tavazoei, Mohammad Haeri

Abstract:

This paper presents comparison among methods of determination of the characteristic polynomial coefficients. First, the resultant systems from the methods are compared based on frequency criteria such as the closed loop bandwidth, gain and phase margins. Then the step responses of the resultant systems are compared on the basis of the transient behavior criteria including overshoot, rise time, settling time and error (via IAE, ITAE, ISE and ITSE integral indices). Also relative stability of the systems is compared together. Finally the best choices in regards to the above diverse criteria are presented.

Keywords: Characteristic Polynomial, Transient Response, Filters, Stability.

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Authors: A. Kumar, V. Devadas

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Energy is the basic element for any country’s economic development. India is one of the most populated countries, and is dependent on fossil fuel and nuclear-based energy generation. The energy sector faces huge challenges and is dependent on the import of energy from neighboring countries to fulfill the gap in demand and supply. India has huge setbacks for efficient energy generation, distribution, and consumption, therefore they consume more quantity of energy to produce the same amount of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to the developed countries. Technology and technique use, availability, and affordability in the various sectors are varying according to their economic status. In this paper, an attempt is made to quantify the domestic electrical energy consumption in Jodhpur, India. Survey research methods have been employed and stratified sampling technique-based households were chosen for conducting the investigation. Pre-tested survey schedules are used to investigate the grassroots level study. The collected data are analyzed by employing statistical techniques. Thereafter, a multiple regression model is developed to understand the functions of total electricity consumption in the domestic sector corresponding to other independent variables including electrical appliances, age of the building, household size, education, etc. The study resulted in identifying the governing variable in energy consumption at the household level and their relationship with the efficiency of household-based electrical and energy appliances. The analysis is concluded with the recommendation for optimizing the gap in peak electrical demand and supply in the domestic sector.

Keywords: Appliance, consumption, electricity, households.

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Authors: Mohsen Hayati, Zahra Mohebi

Abstract:

In this paper, the application of neural networks to study the design of short-term temperature forecasting (STTF) Systems for Kermanshah city, west of Iran was explored. One important architecture of neural networks named Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) to model STTF systems is used. Our study based on MLP was trained and tested using ten years (1996-2006) meteorological data. The results show that MLP network has the minimum forecasting error and can be considered as a good method to model the STTF systems.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Forecasting, Weather, Multi-layer perceptron.

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Authors: Yuan L. Lai, Jian H. Chen, Jui P. Hung

Abstract:

This study created new graphical icons and operating functions in a CAD/CAM software system by analyzing icons in some of the popular systems, such as AutoCAD, AlphaCAM, Mastercam and the 1st edition of LiteCAM. These software systems all focused on geometric design and editing, thus how to transmit messages intuitively from icon itself to users is an important function of graphical icons. The primary purpose of this study is to design innovative icons and commands for new software. This study employed the TRIZ method, an innovative design method, to generate new concepts systematically. Through literature review, it then investigated and analyzed the relationship between TRIZ and idea development. Contradiction Matrix and 40 Principles were used to develop an assisting tool suitable for icon design in software development. We first gathered icon samples from the selected CAD/CAM systems. Then grouped these icons by meaningful functions, and compared useful and harmful properties. Finally, we developed new icons for new software systems in order to avoid intellectual property problem.

Keywords: Icon, TRIZ, CAD/CAM.

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Authors: A. Thabet, G. B. H. Frej, M. Boutayeb

Abstract:

This paper presents a design of dynamic feedback control based on observer for a class of large scale Lipschitz nonlinear systems. The use of Differential Mean Value Theorem (DMVT) is to introduce a general condition on the nonlinear functions. To ensure asymptotic stability, sufficient conditions are expressed in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). High performances are shown through real time implementation with ARDUINO Duemilanove board to the one-link flexible joint robot.

Keywords: Feedback stabilization, DMVT, Lipschitz nonlinear systems, nonlinear observer, real time implementation.

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Authors: Hamide Özyürek, Metin Yılmaz

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Standard processes, similar and limited production lines, the production of high direct costs will be more accurate than the use of parts of the traditional cost systems in the literature. However, direct costs, overhead expenses, in turn, decrease the burden of increasingly sophisticated production facilities, a situation that led the researchers to look for the cost of traditional systems of alternative techniques. Variety cost management approaches for example Total quality management (TQM), just-in-time (JIT), benchmarking, kaizen costing, targeting cost, life cycle costs (LLC), activity-based costing (ABC) value engineering have been introduced. Management and cost applications have changed over the past decade and will continue to change. Modern cost systems can provide relevant and accurate cost information. These methods provide the decisions about customer, product and process improvement. The aim of study is to describe and explain the adoption and application of costing systems in SME. This purpose reports on a survey conducted during 2014 small and medium sized enterprises (SME) in Ankara. The survey results were evaluated using SPSS18 package program.

Keywords: Cost Accounting, Costing, Modern Costing Systems, Managerial Accounting.

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Authors: N. Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

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Authors: Bita Payami-Shabestari, Dariush Eslami

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The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy and restrictions including limited warehouse space, budget, and number of orders, average shortage time and maximum permissible shortage. Since the “costs” cannot be predicted with certainty, it is assumed that data behave under uncertain environment. The problem is first formulated into the framework of a bi-objective of multi-product economic production quantity model. Then, the problem is solved with three multi-objective decision-making (MODM) methods. Then following this, three methods had been compared on information on the optimal value of the two objective functions and the central processing unit (CPU) time with the statistical analysis method and the multi-attribute decision-making (MADM). The results are compared with statistical analysis method and the MADM. The results of the study demonstrate that augmented-constraint in terms of optimal value of the two objective functions and the CPU time perform better than global criteria, and goal programming. Sensitivity analysis is done to illustrate the effect of parameter variations on the optimal solution. The contribution of this research is the use of random costs data in developing a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy with several constraints.

Keywords: Economic production quantity, random cost, supply chain management, vendor-managed inventory.

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Authors: Daniel F. García, Adrián Fernández

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Today, computer systems are more and more complex and support growing security risks. The security managers need to find effective security risk assessment methodologies that allow modeling well the increasing complexity of current computer systems but also maintaining low the complexity of the assessment procedure. This paper provides a brief analysis of common security risk assessment methodologies leading to the selection of a proper methodology to fulfill these requirements. Then, a detailed analysis of the most effective methodology is accomplished, presenting numerical examples to demonstrate how easy it is to use.

Keywords: Computer security, qualitative and quantitative methods, risk assessment methodologies, security risk assessment.

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Authors: N. Khatiashvili, Ch. Pirumova, V. Akhobadze

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In the paper the mathematical model of tumor growth is considered. New capillary network formation, which supply cancer cells with the nutrients, is taken into the account. A formula estimating a tumor growth in connection with the number of capillaries is obtained.

Keywords: Differential Equations, Mathematical Models, Vascular Endothelial, Tumor

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