Search results for: local polynomial regression
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2375

Search results for: local polynomial regression

995 Solar Energy Generation Based Urban Development: A Case of Jodhpur City

Authors: A. Kumar, V. Devadas

Abstract:

India has the most year-round favorable sunny conditions along with the second-highest solar irradiation in the world, the country holds the potential to become the global solar hub. The solar and wind-based generation capacity has skyrocketed in India with the successful effort of the Ministry of Renewable Energy, whereas the potential of rooftop based solar power generation has yet to be explored for proposed solar cities in India. The research aims to analyze the gap in the energy scenario in Jodhpur City and proposes interventions of solar energy generation systems as a catalyst for urban development. The research is based on the system concept which deals with simulation between the city system as a whole and its interactions between different subsystems. A system-dynamics based mathematical model is developed by identifying the control parameters using regression and correlation analysis to assess the gap in energy sector. The base model validation is done using the past 10 years timeline data collected from secondary sources. Further, energy consumption and solar energy generation-based projection are made for testing different scenarios to conclude the feasibility for maintaining the city level energy independence till 2031.

Keywords: City, consumption, energy, generation.

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994 Housing Rehabilitation as a Means of Urban Regeneration and Population Integration

Authors: Andreas L. Savvides

Abstract:

The proposed paper examines strategies whose aim is to counter the all too often sighted process of abandonment that characterizes contemporary cities. The city of Nicosia in Cyprus is used as an indicative case study, whereby several recent projects are presented as capitalizing on traditional cultural assets to revive the downtown. The reuse of existing building stock as museums, performing arts centers and theaters but also as in the form of various housing typologies is geared to strengthen the ranks of local residents and to spur economic growth. Unlike the examples from the 1960s, the architecture of more recent adaptive reuse for urban regeneration seems to be geared in reinforcing a connection to the city where the buildings often reflect the characteristics of their urban context.

Keywords: Public Housing, Building Rehabilitation, Urban Regeneration, Population Integration

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993 Young People’s Participation in Decision-Making Using Information and Communication Technology

Authors: Marina Diković

Abstract:

By giving personal opinions, suggestions and criticism through e-democracy, young people can reinforce the adoption of decisions which they have an impact on. The purpose of this research was to examine the opinion of university students about the possibility of their decision-making by using information and communication technology (ICT). The questionnaire examined young people's values and behaviour associated with e-democracy and the related decision-making. Students are most active online when it comes to finding information connected with their academic responsibilities, but less frequently take part in democratic processes in society, both at the national and local level. E-democracy as a tool can be learned in programmes of Human Rights Education and Citizenship Education. 

Keywords: Active citizens, e-democracy, information and communication technology, university students.

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992 Power System Security Constrained Economic Dispatch Using Real Coded Quantum Inspired Evolution Algorithm

Authors: A. K. Al-Othman, F. S. Al-Fares, K. M. EL-Nagger

Abstract:

This paper presents a new optimization technique based on quantum computing principles to solve a security constrained power system economic dispatch problem (SCED). The proposed technique is a population-based algorithm, which uses some quantum computing elements in coding and evolving groups of potential solutions to reach the optimum following a partially directed random approach. The SCED problem is formulated as a constrained optimization problem in a way that insures a secure-economic system operation. Real Coded Quantum-Inspired Evolution Algorithm (RQIEA) is then applied to solve the constrained optimization formulation. Simulation results of the proposed approach are compared with those reported in literature. The outcome is very encouraging and proves that RQIEA is very applicable for solving security constrained power system economic dispatch problem (SCED).

Keywords: State Estimation, Fuzzy Linear Regression, FuzzyLinear State Estimator (FLSE) and Measurements Uncertainty.

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991 New Coordinate System for Countries with Big Territories

Authors: Mohammed Sabri Ali Akresh

Abstract:

The modern technologies and developments in computer and Global Positioning System (GPS) as well as Geographic Information System (GIS) and total station TS. This paper presents a new proposal for coordinates system by a harmonic equations “United projections”, which have five projections (Mercator, Lambert, Russell, Lagrange, and compound of projection) in one zone coordinate system width 14 degrees, also it has one degree for overlap between zones, as well as two standards parallels for zone from 10 S to 45 S. Also this paper presents two cases; first case is to compare distances between a new coordinate system and UTM, second case creating local coordinate system for the city of Sydney to measure the distances directly from rectangular coordinates using projection of Mercator, Lambert and UTM.

Keywords: Harmonic equations, coordinate system, projections, algorithms and parallels.

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990 Fast Segmentation for the Piecewise Smooth Mumford-Shah Functional

Authors: Yingjie Zhang

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with an improved algorithm based on the piecewise-smooth Mumford and Shah (MS) functional for an efficient and reliable segmentation. In order to speed up convergence, an additional force, at each time step, is introduced further to drive the evolution of the curves instead of only driven by the extensions of the complementary functions u + and u - . In our scheme, furthermore, the piecewise-constant MS functional is integrated to generate the extra force based on a temporary image that is dynamically created by computing the union of u + and u - during segmenting. Therefore, some drawbacks of the original algorithm, such as smaller objects generated by noise and local minimal problem also are eliminated or improved. The resulting algorithm has been implemented in Matlab and Visual Cµ, and demonstrated efficiently by several cases.

Keywords: Active contours, energy minimization, image segmentation, level sets.

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989 A Note on MHD Flow and Heat Transfer over a Curved Stretching Sheet by Considering Variable Thermal Conductivity

Authors: M. G. Murtaza, E. E. Tzirtzilakis, M. Ferdows

Abstract:

The mixed convective flow of MHD incompressible, steady boundary layer in heat transfer over a curved stretching sheet due to temperature dependent thermal conductivity is studied. We use curvilinear coordinate system in order to describe the governing flow equations. Finite difference solutions with central differencing have been used to solve the transform governing equations. Numerical results for the flow velocity and temperature profiles are presented as a function of the non-dimensional curvature radius. Skin friction coefficient and local Nusselt number at the surface of the curved sheet are discussed as well.

Keywords: Curved stretching sheet, finite difference method, MHD, variable thermal conductivity.

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988 The Impact of Financial Risks on Profitability of Malaysian Commercial Banks: 1996-2005

Authors: Fauziah Hanim Tafri, Zarinah Hamid, Ahamed Kameel Mydin Meera, Mohd Azmi Omar

Abstract:

This paper examines the relationship between financial risks and profitability of the conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia for the period between 1996 and 2005. The measures of profitability that have been used in the study are the return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) while the financial risks are credit risk, interest rate risk and liquidity risks. This study employs panel data regression analysis of Generalised Least Squares of fixed effects and random effects models. It was found that credit risk has a significant impact on ROA and ROE for the conventional as well as the Islamic banks. The relationship between interest rate risk and ROE were found to be weakly significant for the conventional banks and insignificant for the Islamic banks. The effect of interest rate risk on ROA is significant for the conventional banks. Liquidity risk was found to have an insignificant impact on both profitability measures.

Keywords: Credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, market risk, profitability.

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987 Political Finance in Africa: Ethiopia as a Case Study

Authors: Wondwosen Teshome B.

Abstract:

Since 1991 Ethiopia has officially adopted multi-party democracy. At present, there are 89 registered political parties in the country. Though political parties play an important role in the functioning of a democratic government, how to fund them is an issue of major concern. Political parties and individual candidates running for political office have to raise funds for election campaigns, and to survive as political candidates. The aim of this paper is to examine party funding problems in Africa by taking the case of Ethiopia as an example. The paper also evaluates the motives of local and international donors in giving financial and material support to political parties in emerging democracies and assesses the merits and de-merits of their donations.

Keywords: Africa, State funding, Ethiopia, Political finance, Political party, Western donors.

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986 A Comparison of Air Pollution in Developed and Developing Cities: A Case Study of London and Beijing

Authors: S. X. Sun, Q. Wang

Abstract:

With the rapid development of industrialization, countries in different stages of development in the world have gradually begun to pay attention to the impact of air pollution on health and the environment. Air control in developed countries is an effective reference for air control in developing countries. Artificial intelligence and other technologies also play a positive role in the prediction of air pollution. By comparing the annual changes of pollution in London and Beijing, this paper concludes that the pollution in developed cities is relatively low and stable, while the pollution in Beijing is relatively heavy and unstable, but is clearly improving. In addition, by analyzing the changes of major pollutants in Beijing in the past eight years, it is concluded that all pollutants except O3 show a significant downward trend. In addition, all pollutants except O3 have certain correlation. For example, PM10 and PM2.5 have the greatest influence on air quality index (AQI). Python, which is commonly used by artificial intelligence, is used as the main software to establish two models, support vector machine (SVM) and linear regression. By comparing the two models under the same conditions, it is concluded that SVM has higher accuracy in pollution prediction. The results of this study provide valuable reference for pollution control and prediction in developing countries.

Keywords: Air pollution, particulate matter, AQI, correlation coefficient, air pollution prediction.

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985 130 nm CMOS Mixer and VCO for 2.4 GHz Low-power Wireless Personal Area Networks

Authors: Gianluca Cornetta, David J. Santos

Abstract:

This paper describes a 2.4 GHz passive switch mixer and a 5/2.5 GHz voltage-controlled negative Gm oscillator (VCO) with an inversion-mode MOS varactor. Both circuits are implemented using a 1P8M 0.13 μm process. The switch mixer has an input referred 1 dB compression point of -3.89 dBm and a conversion gain of -0.96 dB when the local oscillator power is +2.5 dBm. The VCO consumes only 1.75 mW, while drawing 1.45 mA from a 1.2 V supply voltage. In order to reduce the passives size, the VCO natural oscillation frequency is 5 GHz. A clocked CMOS divideby- two circuit is used for frequency division and quadrature phase generation. The VCO has a -109 dBc/Hz phase noise at 1 MHz frequency offset and a 2.35-2.5 GHz tuning range (after the frequency division), thus complying with ZigBee requirements.

Keywords: Switch Mixers, Varactors, IEEE 802.15.4 (ZigBee), Direct Conversion Receiver, Wireless Sensor Networks.

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984 An Evaluation of Buying Behaviors and Perceptions of Organic Vegetable Consumers in Chiang Mai Province

Authors: Somdech Rungsrisawat

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to study of consumer perception and understanding consumer buying behavior that related between satisfied and factors affecting the purchasing. Methodology can be classified between qualitative and quantitative approaches for the qualitative research were interviews from middlemen who bought organic vegetables, and middlemen related to production and marketing system. A questionnaire was utilized as a tool to collect data. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. The result show the reason to decision buying motives is Fresh products of organic vegetables is the most significant factor on individuals’ income, with a b of –.143, t = –2.470, the price of organic vegetables is the most significant factor on individuals’ income, with a b of .176, t = 2.561, p value = .011. The results show that most people with higher income think about the organic products are expensive and have negative attitudes towards organic vegetable as individuals with low and medium income level. Therefore, household income had a significant influence on the purchasing decision.

Keywords: Consumer behaviors, Consumer perceptions, Organic Vegetable.

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983 A New Approach for Fingerprint Classification based on Minutiae Distribution

Authors: Jayant V Kulkarni, Jayadevan R, Suresh N Mali, Hemant K Abhyankar, Raghunath S Holambe

Abstract:

The paper describes a new approach for fingerprint classification, based on the distribution of local features (minute details or minutiae) of the fingerprints. The main advantage is that fingerprint classification provides an indexing scheme to facilitate efficient matching in a large fingerprint database. A set of rules based on heuristic approach has been proposed. The area around the core point is treated as the area of interest for extracting the minutiae features as there are substantial variations around the core point as compared to the areas away from the core point. The core point in a fingerprint has been located at a point where there is maximum curvature. The experimental results report an overall average accuracy of 86.57 % in fingerprint classification.

Keywords: Minutiae distribution, Minutiae, Classification, Orientation, Heuristic.

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982 Sustainable Traditional Architecture and Urban Planning in Hot-Humid Climate of Iran

Authors: Farnaz Nazem

Abstract:

This paper concentrates on the sustainable traditional architecture and urban planning in hot-humid regions of Iran. In a vast country such as Iran with different climatic zones traditional builders have presented series of logical solutions for human comfort. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate traditional architecture in hothumid climate of Iran as a sample of sustainable architecture. Iranian traditional architecture has been able to response to environmental problems for a long period of time. Its features are based on climatic factors, local construction materials of hot-humid regions and culture. This paper concludes that Iranian traditional architecture can be addressed as a sustainable architecture.

Keywords: Hot-humid climate, Iran, Sustainable Traditional architecture, Urban planning.

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981 Introduction of the Fluid-Structure Coupling into the Force Analysis Technique

Authors: Océane Grosset, Charles Pézerat, Jean-Hugh Thomas, Frédéric Ablitzer

Abstract:

This paper presents a method to take into account the fluid-structure coupling into an inverse method, the Force Analysis Technique (FAT). The FAT method, also called RIFF method (Filtered Windowed Inverse Resolution), allows to identify the force distribution from local vibration field. In order to only identify the external force applied on a structure, it is necessary to quantify the fluid-structure coupling, especially in naval application, where the fluid is heavy. This method can be decomposed in two parts, the first one consists in identifying the fluid-structure coupling and the second one to introduced it in the FAT method to reconstruct the external force. Results of simulations on a plate coupled with a cavity filled with water are presented.

Keywords: Fluid-structure coupling, inverse methods, naval, vibrations.

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980 Towards Sustainable Urban Planning In Times of Climate Change

Authors: Rosalba D'onofrio

Abstract:

It is not easy to imagine how the existing city can be converted to the principles of sustainability, however, the need for innovation, requires a pioneering phase which must address the main problems of rehabilitation of the operating models of the city. Today, however, there is a growing awareness that the identification and implementation of policies and measures to promote the adaptation, resilience and reversibility of the city, require the contribution of our discipline. This breakthrough is present in some recent international experiences of Climate Plans, in which the envisaged measures are closely interwoven with those of urban planning. These experiences, provide some answers principle questions, such as: how the strategies to combat climate can be integrated in the instruments of the local government; what new and specific analysis must be introduced in urban planning in order to understand the issues of urban sustainability, and how the project compares with different spatial scales.

Keywords: Climate change, urban sustainability, urban planning

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979 An Ecological Model for Three Species with Crowley–Martin Functional Response

Authors: Randhir Singh Baghel, Govind Shay Sharma

Abstract:

In this paper, we explore an ecosystem that contains a three-species food chain. The first and second species are in competition with one another for resources. However, the third species plays an important role in providing non-linear Crowley-Martin functional support for the first species. Additionally, the third species consumes the second species in a linear fashion, taking advantage of the available resources. This intricate balance ensures the survival of all three species in the ecosystem. A set of non-linear isolated first-order differential equations establish this model. We examine the system's stability at all potential equilibrium locations using the perturbed technique. Furthermore, by spending a lot of time observing the species in their natural habitat, the numerical illustrations at suitable parameter values for the model are shown.

Keywords: Competition, predator, response function, local stability, numerical simulations.

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978 Forecasting the Fluctuation of Currency Exchange Rate Using Random Forest

Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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977 Development of Autonomous Line-Following Soccer Robots

Authors: A. A. Shafie, M. F. Alias, M. H. Ali

Abstract:

The main objective of this project is to build an autonomous microcontroller-based mobile robot for a local robot soccer competition. The black competition field is equipped with white lines to serve as the guidance path for competing robots. Two prototypes of soccer robot embedded with the Basic Stamp II microcontroller have been developed. Two servo motors are used as the drive train for the first prototype whereas the second prototype uses two DC motors as its drive train. To sense the lines, lightdependent resistors (LDRs) supply the analog inputs for the microcontroller. The performances of both prototypes are evaluated. The DC motor-driven robot has produced better trajectory control over the one using servo motors and has brought the team into the final round.

Keywords: Soccer robot, Obstacle detection, Differential drive, Line following.

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976 An In-Depth Inquiry into the Impact of Poor Teacher-Student Relationships on Chronic Absenteeism in Secondary Schools of West Java Province, Indonesia

Authors: Yenni Anggrayni

Abstract:

The lack of awareness of the significant prevalence of school absenteeism in Indonesia, which ultimately results in high rates of school dropouts, is an unresolved issue. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the root causes of chronic absenteeism qualitatively and quantitatively using the bioecological systems paradigm in secondary schools for any reason. This study used an open-ended questionnaire to collect data from 1,148 students in six West Java Province districts/cities. Univariate and stepwise multiple logistic regression analyses produced a prediction model for the components. Analysis results show that poor teacher-student relationships, bullying by peers or teachers, negative perception of education, and lack of parental involvement in learning activities are the leading causes of chronic absenteeism. Another finding is to promote home-school partnerships to improve school climate and parental involvement in learning to address chronic absenteeism.

Keywords: Bullying, chronic absenteeism, dropout of school, home-school partnerships, parental involvement.

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975 Influence of Heat Transfer on Stability of Newtonian and Non-Newtonian Extending Films

Authors: Olus N. Boratav, Zheming Zheng, Chunfeng Zhou

Abstract:

The stability of Newtonian and Non-Newtonian extending films under local or global heating or cooling conditions are considered. The thickness-averaged mass, momentum and energy equations with convective and radiative heat transfer are derived, both for Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids (Maxwell, PTT and Giesekus models considered). The stability of the system is explored using either eigenvalue analysis or transient simulations. The results showed that the influence of heating and cooling on stability strongly depends on the magnitude of the Peclet number. Examples of stabilization or destabilization of heating or cooling are shown for Pe<< 1, and Pe = O(1) cases, for Newtonian and non-Newtonian flows.

Keywords: Extended films, stability, eigen-analysis for stability, transient response, polymer instability, Non-Newtonian fluids.

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974 Strategic Information in the Game of Go

Authors: Michael Harre, Terry Bossomaier, Ranqing Chu, Allan Snyder

Abstract:

We introduce a novel approach to measuring how humans learn based on techniques from information theory and apply it to the oriental game of Go. We show that the total amount of information observable in human strategies, called the strategic information, remains constant for populations of players of differing skill levels for well studied patterns of play. This is despite the very large amount of knowledge required to progress from the recreational players at one end of our spectrum to the very best and most experienced players in the world at the other and is in contrast to the idea that having more knowledge might imply more 'certainty' in what move to play next. We show this is true for very local up to medium sized board patterns, across a variety of different moves using 80,000 game records. Consequences for theoretical and practical AI are outlined.

Keywords: Board Games, Cognitive Capacity, Decision Theory, Information Theory.

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973 Impact of Normative Institutional Factors on Sustainability Reporting

Authors: L. Dagilienė

Abstract:

The article explores the impact of normative institutional factors on the development of sustainability reporting. The vast majority of research in the scientific literature focuses on mandatory institutional factors, i.e. how public institutions and market regulators affect sustainability reporting. Meanwhile, there is lack of empirical data for the impact of normative institutional factors. The effect of normative factors in this paper is based on the role of non-governmental organizations (NGO) and institutional theory. The case of Global Compact Local Network in the developing country was examined. The research results revealed that in the absence of regulated factors, companies were not active with regard to social disclosures; they presented non-systemized social information of a descriptive nature. Only 10% of sustainability reports were prepared using the GRI methodology. None of the reports were assured by third parties.

Keywords: Institutional theory, normative, sustainability reporting.

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972 Evaluation of Disease Risk Variables in the Control of Bovine Tuberculosis

Authors: Berrin Şentürk

Abstract:

In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: Bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis.

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971 Adaptive Total Variation Based on Feature Scale

Authors: Jianbo Hu, Hongbao Wang

Abstract:

The widely used Total Variation de-noising algorithm can preserve sharp edge, while removing noise. However, since fixed regularization parameter over entire image, small details and textures are often lost in the process. In this paper, we propose a modified Total Variation algorithm to better preserve smaller-scaled features. This is done by allowing an adaptive regularization parameter to control the amount of de-noising in any region of image, according to relative information of local feature scale. Experimental results demonstrate the efficient of the proposed algorithm. Compared with standard Total Variation, our algorithm can better preserve smaller-scaled features and show better performance.

Keywords: Adaptive, de-noising, feature scale, regularizationparameter, Total Variation.

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970 Adaptive Dynamic Time Warping for Variable Structure Pattern Recognition

Authors: S. V. Yendiyarov

Abstract:

Pattern discovery from time series is of fundamental importance. Particularly, when information about the structure of a pattern is not complete, an algorithm to discover specific patterns or shapes automatically from the time series data is necessary. The dynamic time warping is a technique that allows local flexibility in aligning time series. Because of this, it is widely used in many fields such as science, medicine, industry, finance and others. However, a major problem of the dynamic time warping is that it is not able to work with structural changes of a pattern. This problem arises when the structure is influenced by noise, which is a common thing in practice for almost every application. This paper addresses this problem by means of developing a novel technique called adaptive dynamic time warping.

Keywords: Pattern recognition, optimal control, quadratic programming, dynamic programming, dynamic time warping, sintering control.

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969 Geometric Simplification Method of Building Energy Model Based on Building Performance Simulation

Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

Abstract:

In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building. Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that no more than 7% prediction error of annual cooling/heating load will be caused by the geometric simplification for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which means this method is applicable for building performance simulation.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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968 Thermal Analysis of Tibetan Vernacular Building - Case of Lhasa

Authors: Lingjiang Huang, Fangfang Liu

Abstract:

Vernacular building is considered as sustainable in energy consumption and environment and its thermal performance is more and more concerned by researchers. This paper investigates the thermal property of the vernacular building in Lhasa by theoretical analysis on the aspects of building form, envelope and materials etc. The values of thermal resistance and thermal capacity of the envelope are calculated and compared with the current China building code and modern building case. And it is concluded that Lhasa vernacular building meets the current China building code of thermal standards and have better performance in some aspects, which is achieved by various passive means with close response to local climate conditions.

Keywords: Climate, Vernacular Building, Thermal Property, Passive Means

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967 Organic Contribution on Particles Formed on Pacific Ocean: From Phytoplankton Blooms to Climate

Authors: Petri Vaattovaara, Luke Cravigan, Zoran Ristovski, Marc Mallet, Ari Laaksonen, Sarah Lawson, Nick Talbot, Gustavo Olivares, Mike Harvey, Cliff Law

Abstract:

These SOAP project Pacific Ocean measurements reveal that phytoplankton blooms with sunny conditions make possible secondary organic contribution to ultrafine particles size and composition, and thus on cloud formation ability, and finally on climate. This is in agreement with other biologically active region observations about the presence of secondary organics even the exact fraction is also depending on the local marine life (e.g. plankton blooms, seaweeds, corals). An organic contribution is clearly needed to add to CLAW hypothesis.

Keywords: Climate, marine aerosols, phytoplankton, secondary organics, CLAW hypothesis.

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966 Using Statistical Significance and Prediction to Test Long/Short Term Public Services and Patients Cohorts: A Case Study in Scotland

Authors: Sotirios Raptis

Abstract:

Health and Social care (HSc) services planning and scheduling are facing unprecedented challenges, due to the pandemic pressure and also suffer from unplanned spending that is negatively impacted by the global financial crisis. Data-driven approaches can help to improve policies, plan and design services provision schedules using algorithms that assist healthcare managers to face unexpected demands using fewer resources. The paper discusses services packing using statistical significance tests and machine learning (ML) to evaluate demands similarity and coupling. This is achieved by predicting the range of the demand (class) using ML methods such as Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forests (RF), and Logistic Regression (LGR). The significance tests Chi-Squared and Student’s test are used on data over a 39 years span for which data exist for services delivered in Scotland. The demands are associated using probabilities and are parts of statistical hypotheses. These hypotheses, as their NULL part, assume that the target demand is statistically dependent on other services’ demands. This linking is checked using the data. In addition, ML methods are used to linearly predict the above target demands from the statistically found associations and extend the linear dependence of the target’s demand to independent demands forming, thus, groups of services. Statistical tests confirmed ML coupling and made the prediction statistically meaningful and proved that a target service can be matched reliably to other services while ML showed that such marked relationships can also be linear ones. Zero padding was used for missing years records and illustrated better such relationships both for limited years and for the entire span offering long-term data visualizations while limited years periods explained how well patients numbers can be related in short periods of time or that they can change over time as opposed to behaviours across more years. The prediction performance of the associations were measured using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under Curve (AUC) and Accuracy (ACC) as well as the statistical tests Chi-Squared and Student. Co-plots and comparison tables for the RF, CART, and LGR methods as well as the p-value from tests and Information Exchange (IE/MIE) measures are provided showing the relative performance of ML methods and of the statistical tests as well as the behaviour using different learning ratios. The impact of k-neighbours classification (k-NN), Cross-Correlation (CC) and C-Means (CM) first groupings was also studied over limited years and for the entire span. It was found that CART was generally behind RF and LGR but in some interesting cases, LGR reached an AUC = 0 falling below CART, while the ACC was as high as 0.912 showing that ML methods can be confused by zero-padding or by data’s irregularities or by the outliers. On average, 3 linear predictors were sufficient, LGR was found competing well RF and CART followed with the same performance at higher learning ratios. Services were packed only when a significance level (p-value) of their association coefficient was more than 0.05. Social factors relationships were observed between home care services and treatment of old people, low birth weights, alcoholism, drug abuse, and emergency admissions. The work found  that different HSc services can be well packed as plans of limited duration, across various services sectors, learning configurations, as confirmed by using statistical hypotheses.

Keywords: Class, cohorts, data frames, grouping, prediction, probabilities, services.

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