Search results for: risk identification

Authors: Yusoff Y. S., Streftaris, G., Waters, H. R

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Death within 30 days is an important factor to be looked into, as there is a significant risk of deaths immediately following or soon after, myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke. In this paper, we will model the deaths within 30 days following a myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke in the UK. We will see how the probabilities of sudden deaths from MI or stroke have changed over the period 1981-2000. We will model the sudden deaths using a generalized linear model (GLM), fitted using the R statistical package, under a Binomial distribution for the number of sudden deaths. We parameterize our model using the extensive and detailed data from the Framingham Heart Study, adjusted to match UK rates. The results show that there is a reduction for the sudden deaths following a MI over time but no significant improvement for sudden deaths following a stroke.

Keywords: Sudden deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease.

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Authors: M. J. Norashirene, Y. Zakiah, S. Nurdiana, I. Nur Hilwani, M. H. Siti Khairiyah, M. J. Muhamad Arif

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In this study, six bacterial isolates of a slightly thermophilic organism from the Sg. Klah hot spring, Malaysia were successfully isolated and designated as M7T55D1, M7T55D2, M7T55D3, M7T53D1, M7T53D2 and M7T53D3 respectively. The bacterial isolates were screened for their cellulose hydrolytic ability on Carboxymethlycellulose agar medium. The isolated bacterial strains were identified morphologically, biochemically and molecularly with the aid of 16S rDNA sequencing. All of the bacteria showed their optimum growth at a slightly alkaline pH of 7.5 with a temperature of 55°C. All strains were Gram-negative, non-spore forming type, strictly aerobic, catalase-positive and oxidase-positive with the ability to produce thermostable cellulase. Based on BLASTn results, bacterial isolates of M7T55D2 and M7T53D1 gave the highest homology (97%) with similarity to Tepidimonas ignava while isolates M7T55D1, M7T55D3, M7T53D2 and M7T53D3 showed their closest homology (97%-98%) with Tepidimonas thermarum. These cellulolytic thermophiles might have a commercial potential to produce valuable thermostable cellulase.

Keywords: Cellulase, Cellulolytic, Thermophiles, 16S rDNA Gene.

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Authors: Kazeem K. Adewole, Julia M. Race, Steve J. Bull

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The fracture performance of steel wires for civil engineering applications remains a major concern in civil engineering construction and maintenance of wire reinforced structures. The need to employ approaches that simulate micromechanical material processes which characterizes fracture in civil structures has been emphasized recently in the literature. However, choosing from the numerous micromechanics-based fracture models, and identifying their applicability and reliability remains an issue that still needs to be addressed in a greater depth. Laboratory tensile testing and finite element tensile testing simulations with the shear, ductile and Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman’s micromechanics-based models conducted in this work reveal that the shear fracture model is an appropriate fracture model to predict the fracture performance of steel wires used for civil engineering applications. The need to consider the capability of the micromechanics-based fracture model to predict the “cup and cone” fracture exhibited by the wire in choosing the appropriate fracture model is demonstrated.

Keywords: Fracture performance, FE simulation, Shear fracture model, Ductile fracture model, Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman fracture model, Wires.

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Authors: Lenka Hurtalová, Eva Tillová, Mária Chalupová, Juraj Belan, Milan Uhríčik

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The secondary alloy A226 is used for many automotive casting produced by mould casting and high pressure die casting. This alloy has excellent castability, good mechanical properties and cost-effectiveness. Production of primary aluminium alloys belong to heavy source fouling of life environs. The European Union calls for the emission reduction and reduction in energy consumption therefore increase production of recycled (secondary) aluminium cast alloys. The contribution is deal with influence of recycling on the quality of the casting made from A226 in automotive industry. The properties of the casting made from secondary aluminium alloys were compared with the required properties of primary aluminium alloys. The effect of recycling on microstructure was observed using combination different analytical techniques (light microscopy upon black-white etching, scanning electron microscopy - SEM upon deep etching and energy dispersive X-ray analysis - EDX). These techniques were used for the identification of the various structure parameters, which was used to compare secondary alloy microstructure with primary alloy microstructure.

Keywords: A226 secondary aluminium alloy, deep etching, mechanical properties, recycling foundry aluminium alloy.

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Authors: Ryu Watanabe, Yutaka Miyake

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Reducing the risk of information leaks is one of the most important functions of identity management systems. To achieve this purpose, Dey et al. have already proposed an account management method for a federated login system using a blind signature scheme. In order to ensure account anonymity for the authentication provider, referred to as an IDP (identity provider), a blind signature scheme is utilized to generate an authentication token on an authentication service and the token is sent to an IDP. However, there is a problem with the proposed system. Malicious users can establish multiple accounts on an IDP by requesting such accounts. As a measure to solve this problem, in this paper, the authors propose an account checking method that is performed before account generation.

Keywords: identity management, blind signature, privacy protection

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Authors: Li-Li Li, Jinghai Feng, Lixin Song

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This paper evaluates the dividend payments for general claim size distributions in the presence of a dividend barrier. The surplus of a company is modeled using the classical risk process perturbed by diffusion, and in addition, it is assumed to accrue interest at a constant rate. After presenting the integro-differential equation with initial conditions that dividend payments satisfies, the paper derives a useful expression of the dividend payments by employing the theory of Volterra equation. Furthermore, the optimal value of dividend barrier is found. Finally, numerical examples illustrate the optimality of optimal dividend barrier and the effects of parameters on dividend payments.

Keywords: Dividend payout, Integro-differential equation, Jumpdiffusion model, Volterra equation

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Authors: Zaw Tun, Aung Htein Maw

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The nature of wireless ad hoc and sensor networks make them very attractive to attackers. One of the most popular and serious attacks in wireless ad hoc networks is wormhole attack and most proposed protocols to defend against this attack used positioning devices, synchronized clocks, or directional antennas. This paper analyzes the nature of wormhole attack and existing methods of defending mechanism and then proposes round trip time (RTT) and neighbor numbers based wormhole detection mechanism. The consideration of proposed mechanism is the RTT between two successive nodes and those nodes- neighbor number which is needed to compare those values of other successive nodes. The identification of wormhole attacks is based on the two faces. The first consideration is that the transmission time between two wormhole attack affected nodes is considerable higher than that between two normal neighbor nodes. The second detection mechanism is based on the fact that by introducing new links into the network, the adversary increases the number of neighbors of the nodes within its radius. This system does not require any specific hardware, has good performance and little overhead and also does not consume extra energy. The proposed system is designed in ad hoc on-demand distance vector (AODV) routing protocol and analysis and simulations of the proposed system are performed in network simulator (ns-2).

Keywords: AODV, Wormhole attacks, Wireless ad hoc andsensor networks

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Authors: Dehpour A. A., Eslami B., Rezaie S., Hashemian S. F., Shafie F., Kiaie M.

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The aims of study were investigation on chemical composition essential oil and the effect of extract of Coronilla varia on antimicrobial and cytotoxicity activity. The essential oils of Coronilla varia is obtained by hydrodistillation and analyzed by (GC/MS) for determining their chemical composition and identification of their components. Antibacterial activity of plant extract was determined by disc diffusion method and anticancer activity measured by MTT assay. The major components in essential oil were Caryophyllene Oxide (60.19%), Alphacadinol (4.13%) and Homoadantaneca Robexylic Acid (3.31%). The extracts from Coronilla varia had interesting activity against Proteus mirabilis in the concentration of 700 μg/disc and did not show any activity against Staphylococus aureus, Bacillus subtillis, Klebsiella pneumonia and Entrobacter cloacae. The positive control, Ampicillin, Chloramphenicol and Cenphalothin had shown zone of inhibition resistant all bacteria. The ethanol extract of Corohilla varia inhibited on MCF7 cell lines. IC50 0.6(mg/ml) was the optimum concentration of extract from Coronilla varia inhibition of cell line growth. The MCF7 cancer cell line and Proteus mirabilis were more sensitive to Coronilla varia ethanol extract.

Keywords: Coronilla varia, Essential oil, Antibacterial, Anticancer, HeLa cell line.

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Authors: L. Krpalkova, N. O' Mahony, A. Carvalho, S. Campbell, S. Harapanahalli, J. Walsh

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The objective of this study was to determine the effects of environmental stressors on the performance of lactating dairy cows and discuss some future trends. There exists a relationship between the meteorological data and milk yield prediction accuracy in pasture-based dairy systems. New precision technologies are available and are being developed to improve the sustainability of the dairy industry. Some of these technologies focus on welfare of individual animals on dairy farms. These technologies allow the automatic identification of animal behaviour and health events, greatly increasing overall herd health and yield while reducing animal health inspection demands and long-term animal healthcare costs. The data set consisted of records from 489 dairy cows at two dairy farms and temperature measured from the nearest meteorological weather station in 2018. The effects of temperature on milk production and behaviour of animals were analyzed. The statistical results indicate different effects of temperature on milk yield and behaviour. The “comfort zone” for animals is in the range 10 °C to 20 °C. Dairy cows out of this zone had to decrease or increase their metabolic heat production, and it affected their milk production and behaviour.

Keywords: Behaviour, milk yield, temperature, precision technologies.

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Authors: Fauzi Jarushi, Paul Cosentino, Edward Kalajian, Hadeel Dekhn

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At certain depths during large diameter displacement pile driving, rebound well over 0.25 inches was experienced, followed by a small permanent-set during each hammer blow. High pile rebound (HPR) soils may stop the pile driving and results in a limited pile capacity. In some cases, rebound leads to pile damage, delaying the construction project, and the requiring foundations redesign. HPR was evaluated at seven Florida sites, during driving of square precast, prestressed concrete piles driven into saturated, fine silty to clayey sands and sandy clays. Pile Driving Analyzer (PDA) deflection versus time data recorded during installation, was used to develop correlations between cone penetrometer (CPT) pore-water pressures, pile displacements and rebound. At five sites where piles experienced excessive HPR with minimal set, the pore pressure yielded very high positive values of greater than 20 tsf. However, at the site where the pile rebounded, followed by an acceptable permanent-set, the measured pore pressure ranged between 5 and 20 tsf. The pore pressure exhibited values of less than 5 tsf at the site where no rebound was noticed. In summary, direct correlations between CPTu pore pressure and rebound were produced, allowing identification of soils that produce HPR.

Keywords: CPTu, pore water pressure, pile rebound.

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Authors: Amin Almasi

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Reliability assessment and risk analysis of rotating machine rotors in various overload and malfunction situations present challenge to engineers and operators. In this paper a new analytical method for evaluation of rotor under large deformation is addressed. Model is presented in general form to include also composite rotors. Presented simulation procedure is based on variational work method and has capability to account for geometric nonlinearity, large displacement, nonlinear support effect and rotor contacting other machine components. New shape functions are presented which capable to predict accurate nonlinear profile of rotor. The closed form solutions for various operating and malfunction situations are expressed. Analytical simulation results are discussed

Keywords: Large Deformation, Nonlinear, Rotor.

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Authors: G. Tamilpavai, C. Vishnuppriya

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Studying DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) sequence is useful in biological processes and it is applied in the fields such as diagnostic and forensic research. DNA is the hereditary information in human and almost all other organisms. It is passed to their generations. Earlier stage detection of defective DNA sequence may lead to many developments in the field of Bioinformatics. Nowadays various tedious techniques are used to identify defective DNA. The proposed work is to analyze and identify the cancer-causing DNA motif in a given sequence. Initially the human DNA sequence is separated as k-mers using k-mer separation rule. The separated k-mers are clustered using Self Organizing Map (SOM). Using Levenshtein distance measure, cancer associated DNA motif is identified from the k-mer clusters. Experimental results of this work indicate the presence or absence of cancer causing DNA motif. If the cancer associated DNA motif is found in DNA, it is declared as the cancer disease causing DNA sequence. Otherwise the input human DNA is declared as normal sequence. Finally, elapsed time is calculated for finding the presence of cancer causing DNA motif using clustering formation. It is compared with normal process of finding cancer causing DNA motif. Locating cancer associated motif is easier in cluster formation process than the other one. The proposed work will be an initiative aid for finding genetic disease related research.

Keywords: Bioinformatics, cancer motif, DNA, k-mers, Levenshtein distance, SOM.

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Authors: Alexander Dao, Oscar Wambuguh

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Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) is a heterogeneous functional bowel disease that is characterized by chronic visceral abdominal pain and abnormal bowel function and habits. Its multifactorial pathophysiology and mechanisms are still largely a mystery to the contemporary biomedical community, although there are many hypotheses to try to explain IBS’s presumed physiological, psychosocial, genetic, and environmental etiologies. IBS’s symptomatic presentation is varied and divided into four major subtypes: IBS-C, IBS-D, IBS-M, and IBS-U. Given its diverse presentation and unclear mechanisms, diagnosis is done through a combination of positive identification utilizing the “Rome IV Irritable Bowel Syndrome Criteria'' (Rome IV) diagnostic criteria while also excluding other potential conditions with similar symptoms. Treatment of IBS is focused on the management of symptoms using an assortment of pharmaceuticals, lifestyle changes, and dietary changes, with future potential in microbial treatment and psychotherapy as other therapy methods. Its chronic, heterogeneous nature and disruptive gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms are negatively impactful on patients’ daily lives, health systems, and society. However, with a better understanding of the gaps in knowledge and technological advances in IBS’s pathophysiology, management, and treatment options, there is optimism for the millions of people worldwide who are suffering from the debilitating effects of IBS.

Keywords: Irritable bowel syndrome, lifestyle, diet, functional gastrointestinal disorder.

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Authors: Florian Pfeffel, Christoph A. Kexel, Peter Kexel, Maria Ratz

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The parallel usage of different media channels has increased recently owing to technological advances. Second Screen describes the use of a second device by television viewers to consume further content which is related to the program they are watching. This study analysed the characteristics of football spectators regarding their media consumption in relation to Second Screen usage while watching a football match on TV. The existing literature on Second Screen usage is still very limited, especially in the context of particular broadcasting settings such as sport or even more specific such as football matches. Therefore, the primary research objective was to reveal first insights into the user behaviour of football spectators regarding Second Screen services. The survey, which was conducted among German football supporters in 2015, revealed some characteristics such as the identification and involvement into the sports which are related to an increased use of Second Screen services. One important finding for football supporters was that at the time of a match they have a lower parallel media usage compared to other TV broadcastings. Nevertheless, if supporters used a second device while watching a match on TV, then they were using specific Second Screen services. This means they searched for more content related information. The findings on the habits and characteristics of people who are using Second Screen services are relevant for future developments in that area as well as for marketing decisions.

Keywords: Media consumption, second screen, sport marketing, user behaviour.

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Authors: Brigita Altenbaher

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In recent years there has been a continuous increase of axle loads, tonnage, train speed and train length which has increased both the productivity in the rail sector and the risk of rail breaks and derailments. On the other hand, the environmental requirements (e.g. noise reduction) for railway operations will become tighter in the future. In our research we developed a new composite material which does not change braking properties, is capable of taking extremely high pressure loads, reduces noise and is environmentally friendly. Part of our research was also the development of technology which will be able to apply this material to the rail. The result of our research was the system which reduces the wear out significantly and almost completely eliminates the squealing noise at the same time, and by using only one special material.

Keywords: Active protection, composite material, lubrication, noise reduction, reduction at source, railway.

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Authors: Yahia I. Mohamed, Ahmed I. Marzouk, Mohamed A. Yacout

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Aim of this work was to study the genetic basis for oil accumulation in olive fruit via tracking DGAT2 (Diacylglycerol acyltransferase type-2) gene in three Egyptian Origen Olive cultivars namely Toffahi, Hamed and Maraki using molecular marker techniques and bioinformatics tools. Results illustrate that, firstly: specific genomic band of Maraki cultivars was identified as DGAT2 (Diacylglycerol acyltransferase type-2) and identical for this gene in Olea europaea with 100% of similarity. Secondly, differential genomic band of Maraki cultivars which produced from RAPD fingerprinting technique reflected predicted distinguished sequence which identified as DGAT2 (Diacylglycerol acyltransferase type-2) in Fragaria vesca subsp. Vesca with 76% of sequential similarity. Third and finally, specific genomic specific band of Hamed cultivars was identified as two fragments, 1- Olea europaea cultivar Koroneiki diacylglycerol acyltransferase type 2 mRNA, complete cds with two matches regions with 99% or 2- Predicted: Fragaria vesca subsp. vesca diacylglycerol O-acyltransferase 2-like (LOC101313050), mRNA with 86 % of similarity.

Keywords: Olea europaea, fingerprinting, Diacylglycerol acyltransferase type- 2 (DGAT2).

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Authors: Lara L. Barbosa, Marco Imperadori

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This article aims to define strategies for applying innovative technology so that housing in regions subject to floods can be more resilient to disasters. Based on case studies of seven amphibious and floating projects, it proposes design guidelines to implement this practice. Its originality consists of transposing a technology developed for fluctuating buildings for housing types in regions affected by flood disasters. The proposal could be replicated in other contexts, endowing vulnerable households with ability to resist rising water levels after a flood. The results of this study are design guidelines to adapt for houses in areas subject to flooding, contributing to the mitigation of this disaster.

Keywords: Amphibious housing, disaster resilience, floating architecture, flood mitigation, post-disaster reconstruction.

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Authors: Alena Dadova, Katarina Holla, Anna Cidlinova, Linda Makovicka Osvaldova, Jiri Vala, Samuel Kockar

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Occupational health and safety (OHS) is an area in which procedures and applications are constantly evolving and changing through legislation and new directives and guidelines. In this way, the relevant organizations strive to ensure continuous progress and the advantage of up-to-date information to ensure safety and prevent occupational accidents. Three ESENER surveys have been carried out in the European Union, led by the Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA). On the basis of surveys, it was determined how European workplaces manage risks and how they manage the field of safety and health protection at work. Thousands of companies and organizations in the European Union were involved in the surveys. Organizations and businesses were presented with a questionnaire that focused on the following topics: the impact of general risks on the field of OSH and the possibility of their management, psychosocial risks and other factors such as stress, harassment and bullying, and employee participation in OSH procedures. The article is dedicated to the fundamental conclusions from these surveys and their subsequent connection with the strategic intent of the Strategic Framework of European Union for the years 2021-2027. In the conclusion, emerging risks are identified and the EU will soon have to deal with them.

Keywords: ESENER, emerging risks, strategic framework in OSH, EU.

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Authors: P. Chatrabhuti, S. Visessri, T. Charinpanitkul

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Precision irrigation (PI) technology has emerged as a solution to optimize water usage in agriculture, aiming to maximize crop yields while minimizing water waste. Developing a PI for commercialization requires developers to research, synthesize, evaluate, and select appropriate technologies and make use of such information to produce innovative products. The objective of this review is to facilitate innovators by providing them with a summary of existing knowledge and the identification of gaps in research linking to the innovative development of PI. This paper reviews and synthesizes technologies and components relevant to precision irrigation, highlighting its potential benefits and challenges. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) framework is used for the review. As a result of this review, the different technologies have limitations and may only be suitable for specific orchards or spatial settings. The current technologies are readily available in a range of options, from affordable controllers to high-performance systems that are both reliable and precise. Furthermore, the future prospects for incorporating artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques hold promise for advancing autonomous irrigation systems.

Keywords: Innovation synthesis, technology assessment, precision irrigation technologies, precision irrigation components, new product development.

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Authors: Remica Aggarwal, Sanjeet Singh

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The decision to recruit manpower in an organization requires clear identification of the criteria (attributes) that distinguish successful from unsuccessful performance. The choice of appropriate attributes or criteria in different levels of hierarchy in an organization is a multi-criteria decision problem and therefore multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques can be used for prioritization of such attributes. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is one such technique that is widely used for deciding among the complex criteria structure in different levels. In real applications, conventional AHP still cannot reflect the human thinking style as precise data concerning human attributes are quite hard to be extracted. Fuzzy logic offers a systematic base in dealing with situations, which are ambiguous or not well defined. This study aims at defining a methodology to improve the quality of prioritization of an employee-s performance measurement attributes under fuzziness. To do so, a methodology based on the Extent Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is proposed. Within the model, four main attributes such as Subject knowledge and achievements, Research aptitude, Personal qualities and strengths and Management skills with their subattributes are defined. The two approaches conventional AHP approach and the Extent Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process approach have been compared on the same hierarchy structure and criteria set.

Keywords: AHP, Extent analysis method, Fuzzy AHP, Prioritization.

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Authors: C. Ardil

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In this research, the Balkan peninsula countries' developmental integration into European Union represents the strategic economic development objectives of the countries in the region. In order to objectively analyze the level of economic development competition of Balkan Peninsula countries, the mathematical compromise programming technique of multicriteria evaluation is used in this ranking problem. The primary aim of this research is to explain the role and significance of the multicriteria method evaluation using a real example of compromise solutions. Using the mathematical compromise programming technique, twelve countries of the Balkan Peninsula are economically evaluated and mutually compared. The economic development evaluation of the countries is performed according to five evaluation criteria forming the basis for economic development evaluation. The multiattribute model is solved using the mathematical compromise programming technique for producing different Pareto solutions. The results obtained by the multicriteria evaluation gives the possibility of identification and evaluation of the most eminent economic development indicators for each country separately. Finally, in this way, the proposed method has proved to be a successful model for the evaluation of the Balkan peninsula countries' economic development competition.

Keywords: Balkan peninsula countries, standard deviation, multicriteria decision making, mathematical compromise programming, multicriteria decision making, multicriteria analysis, multicriteria decision analysis.

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Authors: Samit Ari, Goutam Saha

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Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been extensively used for classification of heart sounds for its discriminative training ability and easy implementation. However, it suffers from overparameterization if the number of nodes is not chosen properly. In such cases, when the dataset has redundancy within it, ANN is trained along with this redundant information that results in poor validation. Also a larger network means more computational expense resulting more hardware and time related cost. Therefore, an optimum design of neural network is needed towards real-time detection of pathological patterns, if any from heart sound signal. The aims of this work are to (i) select a set of input features that are effective for identification of heart sound signals and (ii) make certain optimum selection of nodes in the hidden layer for a more effective ANN structure. Here, we present an optimization technique that involves Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and QR factorization with column pivoting (QRcp) methodology to optimize empirically chosen over-parameterized ANN structure. Input nodes present in ANN structure is optimized by SVD followed by QRcp while only SVD is required to prune undesirable hidden nodes. The result is presented for classifying 12 common pathological cases and normal heart sound.

Keywords: ANN, Classification of heart diseases, murmurs, optimization, Phonocardiogram, QRcp, SVD.

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Authors: T. Teo, S. W. Lye, Y. F. Li, Z. Zakaria

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Wearable devices such as Electroencephalography (EEG) hold immense potential in the monitoring and assessment of a person’s task engagement. This is especially so in remote or online sites. Research into its use in measuring an individual's cognitive state while performing task activities is therefore expected to increase. Despite the growing number of EEG research into brain functioning activities of a person, key challenges remain in adopting EEG for real-time operations. These include limited portability, long preparation time, high number of channel dimensionality, intrusiveness, as well as level of accuracy in acquiring neurological data. This paper proposes an approach using a 4-6 EEG channels to determine the cognitive states of a subject when undertaking a set of passive and active monitoring tasks of a subject. Air traffic controller (ATC) dynamic-tasks are used as a proxy. The work found that using a developed channel reduction and identifier algorithm, good trend adherence of 89.1% can be obtained between a commercially available brain computer interface (BCI) 14 channel Emotiv EPOC+ EEG headset and that of a carefully selected set of reduced 4-6 channels. The approach can also identify different levels of engagement activities ranging from general monitoring, ad hoc and repeated active monitoring activities involving information search, extraction, and memory activities.

Keywords: Neurophysiology, monitoring, EEG, outliers, electroencephalography.

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Authors: Mohammed El Raey, Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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The spatial-ecological modeling is relating sustainable dispersions with social development. Sustainability with spatial-ecological model gives attention to urban environments in the design review management to comply with Earth’s system. Naturally exchanged patterns of ecosystems have consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy flows and materials in Earth’s system. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) technique is utilized to assess the safety of an industrial complex. The other analytical approach is the Failure-Safe Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for critical components. The plant safety parameters are identified for engineering topology as employed in assessment safety of industrial ecology. In particular, the most severe accidental release of hazardous gaseous is postulated, analyzed and assessment in industrial region. The IAEA-safety assessment procedure is used to account the duration and rate of discharge of liquid chlorine. The ecological model of plume dispersion width and concentration of chlorine gas in the downwind direction is determined using Gaussian Plume Model in urban and rural areas and presented with SURFER®. The prediction of accident consequences is traced in risk contour concentration lines. The local greenhouse effect is predicted with relevant conclusions. The spatial-ecological model is predicted for multiple factors distribution schemes of multi-criteria analysis. The input–output analysis is explored from the spillover effect, and we conducted Monte Carlo simulations for sensitivity analysis. Their unique structure is balanced within “equilibrium patterns”, such as the composite index for biosphere with collective structure of many distributed feedback flows. These dynamic structures are related to have their physical and chemical properties and enable a gradual and prolonged incremental pattern. While this spatial model structure argues from ecology, resource savings, static load design, financial and other pragmatic reasons, the outcomes are not decisive in an artistic/architectural perspective. The hypothesis is deployed to unify analytic and analogical spatial structure in development urban environments using optimization loads as an example of integrated industrial structure where the process is based on engineering topology of systems ecology.

Keywords: Spatial-ecological modeling, spatial structure orientation impact, composite structure, industrial ecology.

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Authors: Juha Korpijärvi, Jari Kortelainen

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The paper presents dynamic programming based model as a planning tool for the maintenance of electric power systems. Every distribution component has an exponential age depending reliability function to model the fault risk. In the moment of time when the fault costs exceed the investment costs of the new component the reinvestment of the component should be made. However, in some cases the overhauling of the old component may be more economical than the reinvestment. The comparison between overhauling and reinvestment is made by optimisation process. The goal of the optimisation process is to find the cost minimising maintenance program for electric power distribution system.

Keywords: Dynamic programming, Electric distribution system, Maintenance

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX, prediction, stock market, time series.

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Authors: F. Gurkalo, K. Poutos

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Earthquakes produce some of the most violent loading situations that a structure can be subjected to and if a structure fails under these loads then inevitably human life is put at risk. One of the most common methods by which a structure fails under seismic loading is at the connection of structural elements. The research presented in this paper investigates the interlock systems as a novel method for building structures. The main objective of this experimental study wasto determine the dynamic characteristics and the seismic behaviour of the proposed structures compared to conventional structural systemsduring seismic motions. Results of this study indicate that the interlock mechanism of the panels influences the behaviour of lateral load-resisting systems of the structures during earthquakes, contributing to better structural flexibility and easier maintenance.

Keywords: Watertower, earthquake, seismic, interlocked panels

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Authors: Abduladim Maitieg, Kevin Lynch, Mark Johnson

Abstract:

The goal of the Libyan Environmental General Authority (EGA) and National Oil Corporation (Department of Health, Safety & Environment) during the last 5 years has been to adopt a common approach to coastal and marine spatial planning. Protection and planning of the coastal zone is a significant for Libya, due to the length of coast and, the high rate of oil export, and spills’ potential negative impacts on coastal and marine habitats. Coastal resource scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term and short-term consequences of oil spill impact and available response options that would provide an integrated perspective on mitigation. To investigate that, this paper reviews the Misratah coastal parameters to present the physical and human controls and attributes of coastal habitats as the first step in understanding how they may be damaged by an oil spill. This paper also investigates costal resources, providing a better understanding of the resources and factors that impact the integrity of the ecosystem. Therefore, the study described the potential spatial distribution of oil spill risk and the coastal resources value, and also created spatial maps of coastal resources and their vulnerability to oil spills along the coast. This study proposes an analysis of coastal resources condition at a local level in the Misratah region of the Mediterranean Sea, considering the implementation of coastal and marine spatial planning over time as an indication of the will to manage urban development. Oil spill contamination analysis and their impact on the coastal resources depend on (1) oil spill sequence, (2) oil spill location, (3) oil spill movement near the coastal area. The resulting maps show natural, socio-economic activity, environmental resources along of the coast, and oil spill location. Moreover, the study provides significant geodatabase information which is required for coastal sensitivity index mapping and coastal management studies. The outcome of study provides the information necessary to set an Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the Misratah shoreline, which can be used for management of coastal resources and setting boundaries for each coastal sensitivity sectors, as well as to help planners measure the impact of oil spills on coastal resources. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were used in order to store and illustrate the spatial convergence of existing socio-economic activities such as fishing, tourism, and the salt industry, and ecosystem components such as sea turtle nesting area, Sabkha habitats, and migratory birds feeding sites. These geodatabases help planners investigate the vulnerability of coastal resources to an oil spill.

Keywords: Coastal and marine spatial planning advancement training, GIS mapping, human uses, ecosystem components, Misratah coast, Libyan, oil spill.

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Authors: A. Hortacsu, A. Tektas

Abstract:

This paper aims to develop a model that assists the international retailer in selecting the country that maximizes the degree of fit between the retailer-s goals and the country characteristics in his initial internationalization move. A two-stage multi criteria decision model is designed integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Goal Programming. Ethical, cultural, geographic and economic proximity are identified as the relevant constructs of the internationalization decision. The constructs are further structured into sub-factors within analytic hierarchy. The model helps the retailer to integrate, rank and weigh a number of hard and soft factors and prioritize the countries accordingly. The model has been implemented on a Turkish luxury goods retailer who was planning to internationalize. Actual entry of the specific retailer in the selected country is a support for the model. Implementation on a single retailer limits the generalizability of the results; however, the emphasis of the paper is on construct identification and model development. The paper enriches the existing literature by proposing a hybrid multi objective decision model which introduces new soft dimensions i.e. perceived distance, ethical proximity, humane orientation to the decision process and facilitates effective decision making.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, culture, ethics, goal programming, retail foreign market selection.

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Authors: Ticiane Rossi, Maurício C. Araújo, José O. Brito, Harold S. Freeman

Abstract:

Natural dyes are gaining interest due their expected low risk to human health and to the environment. In this study, the wash fastness of a natural coloring matter from the liquid waste produced in the steam treatment of eucalyptus wood in textile fabrics was investigated. Specifically, eucalyptus wood extract was used to dye cotton, nylon and wool in an exhaust dyeing process without the addition of the traditional mordanting agents and then submitted to wash fastness analysis. The resulting dyed fabrics were evaluated for color fastness. It was found that wash fastness of dyed fabrics was very good to cotton and excellent to nylon and wool.

Keywords: Eucalyptus, natural dye, textile fibers, wash fastness.

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