Search results for: Multi-criteria Spatial Analysis

Authors: Anthony Spiteri Staines

Abstract:

This paper examines and compares several of the most common real time methods. These methods are CORE, YSM, MASCOT, JSD, DARTS, RTSAD, ADARTS, CODARTS, HOOD, HRT-HOOD, ROOM, UML, UML-RT. The methods are compared using attributes like i) usability, ii) compositionality and iii) proper RT notations available. Finally some comparison results are given and discussed.

Keywords: Software Engineering Methods, MethodComparison, Real Time Analysis and Design.

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Authors: A.H. Akhaveissy

Abstract:

Nonlinear finite element method and Serendipity eight nodes element are used for determining of ground surface settlement due to tunneling. Linear element with elastic behavior is used for modeling of lining. Modified Generalized plasticity model with nonassociated flow rule is applied for analysis of a tunnel in Sao Paulo – Brazil. The tunnel had analyzed by Lades- model with 16 parameters. In this work modified Generalized Plasticity is used with 10 parameters, also Mohr-Coulomb model is used to analysis the tunnel. The results show good agreement with observed results of field data by modified Generalized Plasticity model than other models. The obtained result by Mohr-Coulomb model shows less settlement than other model due to excavation.

Keywords: Non-associated flow rule, Generalized plasticity, tunnel excavation, Excavation method.

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Authors: Subariah Ibrahim, Mohd Aizaini Maarof

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A generalization of the concepts of Feistel Networks (FN), known as Extended Feistel Network (EFN) is examined. EFN splits the input blocks into n > 2 sub-blocks. Like conventional FN, EFN consists of a series of rounds whereby at least one sub-block is subjected to an F function. The function plays a key role in the diffusion process due to its completeness property. It is also important to note that in EFN the F-function is the most computationally expensive operation in a round. The aim of this paper is to determine a suitable type of EFN for a scalable cipher. This is done by analyzing the threshold number of rounds for different types of EFN to achieve the completeness property as well as the number of F-function required in the network. The work focuses on EFN-Type I, Type II and Type III only. In the analysis it is found that EFN-Type II and Type III diffuses at the same rate and both are faster than Type-I EFN. Since EFN-Type-II uses less F functions as compared to EFN-Type III, therefore Type II is the most suitable EFN for use in a scalable cipher.

Keywords: Cryptography, Extended Feistel Network, Diffusion Analysis.

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of history of obesity for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, family history, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eleven studies of family history and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that family history of obesity is a significant risk factor of overweight and /or obesity in offspring; risk for offspring overweight and/or obesity associated with family history varies depending of the family members included in the analysis; and when family history of obesity is present, the offspring are at greater risk for developing obesity or overweight. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: Childhood obesity, overweight, family history, risk factors, meta-analysis.

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Authors: Sawangjit Sopid

Abstract:

Atrazine, a herbicide widely used in sugarcane and corn production, is a frequently detected groundwater contaminant. An atrazine-degrading bacterium, strain KB02, was obtained from long-term atrazine-treated sugarcane field soils in Kanchanaburi province of Thailand. Strain KB02 had a rod-to-coccus morphological cycle during growth. Sequence analysis of the PCR product indicated that the 16S rRNA gene in strain KB02 was ranging from 97-98% identical to the same region in Klebsiella sp. Based on biochemical, physiological analysis and 16S rDNA sequence analysis of one representative isolate, strain KB02, the isolates belong to the genus Klebsiella in the family Enterobacteriaceae. Interestingly that the various primers for atzA, B and C failed to amplify genomic DNA of strain KB02. Whereas the expected PCR product of atzA, B and C were obtained from the reference strain, Arthrobacter sp. strain KU001.

Keywords: Atrazine, atz gene, Biodegradation, bioremediation, Klebsiella

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Authors: Gulshan Sachdeva, Ram Bilash

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In this paper, the exergy analysis of vapor absorption refrigeration system using LiBr-H2O as working fluid is carried out with the modified Gouy-Stodola approach rather than the classical Gouy-Stodola equation and effect of varying input parameters is also studied on the performance of the system. As the modified approach uses the concept of effective temperature, the mathematical expressions for effective temperature have been formulated and calculated for each component of the system. Various constraints and equations are used to develop program in EES to solve these equations. The main aim of this analysis is to determine the performance of the system and the components having major irreversible loss. Results show that exergy destruction rate is considerable in absorber and generator followed by evaporator and condenser. There is an increase in exergy destruction in generator, absorber and condenser and decrease in the evaporator by the modified approach as compared to the conventional approach. The value of exergy determined by the modified Gouy-Stodola equation deviates maximum i.e. 26% in the generator as compared to the exergy calculated by the classical Gouy-Stodola method.

Keywords: Exergy analysis, Gouy-Stodola, refrigeration, vapor absorption.

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Authors: Souvik Bhattacharyya, Gautam Sanyal

Abstract:

In recent years, everything is trending toward digitalization and with the rapid development of the Internet technologies, digital media needs to be transmitted conveniently over the network. Attacks, misuse or unauthorized access of information is of great concern today which makes the protection of documents through digital media a priority problem. This urges us to devise new data hiding techniques to protect and secure the data of vital significance. In this respect, steganography often comes to the fore as a tool for hiding information. Steganography is a process that involves hiding a message in an appropriate carrier like image or audio. It is of Greek origin and means "covered or hidden writing". The goal of steganography is covert communication. Here the carrier can be sent to a receiver without any one except the authenticated receiver only knows existence of the information. Considerable amount of work has been carried out by different researchers on steganography. In this work the authors propose a novel Steganographic method for hiding information within the spatial domain of the gray scale image. The proposed approach works by selecting the embedding pixels using some mathematical function and then finds the 8 neighborhood of the each selected pixel and map each bit of the secret message in each of the neighbor pixel coordinate position in a specified manner. Before embedding a checking has been done to find out whether the selected pixel or its neighbor lies at the boundary of the image or not. This solution is independent of the nature of the data to be hidden and produces a stego image with minimum degradation.

Keywords: Cover Image, LSB, Pixel Coordinate Position (PCP), Stego Image.

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Authors: Jiming Yang

Abstract:

An upwind difference approximation is used for a singularly perturbed problem in material science. Based on the discrete Green-s function theory, the error estimate in maximum norm is achieved, which is first-order uniformly convergent with respect to the perturbation parameter. The numerical experimental result is verified the valid of the theoretical analysis.

Keywords: Singularly perturbed, upwind difference, uniform convergence.

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Authors: Elise Stephanie Mvodo Meyo, Dapeng Liang

Abstract:

Cassava is one of the top five crops in Cameroon. Its evolution has remained constant since the independence period and the production has more than tripled. It is a crop with multiple industrial capacities but the sector-s business opportunities are underexploited. Using Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats analysis method, this paper examines the cassava actual state. It appraises the sector-s strengths (S), considers suitable measures to strengthen weaknesses (W), evaluates strategies to fully benefit from the sector numerous business opportunities (O) and explore means to convert threats (T) into opportunities. Data were collected from the ministry of agriculture and rural development and different actors. The results show that cassava sector embodies many business opportunities and stands as a raw material provider for many industries but ultimately requires challenges to be tackled appropriately.

Keywords: Business opportunities, cassava sector, rural development, SWOT analysis.

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Authors: Mijoh A. Gbededo, Kapila Liyanage, Sabuj Mallik

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The emerging approaches to sustainable manufacturing are considered to be solution-oriented with the aim of addressing the environmental, economic and social issues holistically. However, the analysis of the interdependencies amongst the three sustainability dimensions has not been fully captured in the literature. In a recent review of approaches to sustainable manufacturing, two categories of techniques are identified: 1) Sustainable Product Development (SPD), and 2) Sustainability Performance Assessment (SPA) techniques. The challenges of the approaches are not only related to the arguments and misconceptions of the relationships between the techniques and sustainable development but also to the inability to capture and integrate the three sustainability dimensions. This requires a clear definition of some of the approaches and a road-map to the development of a holistic approach that supports sustainability decision-making. In this context, eco-innovation, social impact assessment, and life cycle sustainability analysis play an important role. This paper deployed an integrative approach that enabled amalgamation of sustainable manufacturing approaches and the theories of reciprocity and motivation into a holistic simulation-based impact analysis framework. The findings in this research have the potential to guide sustainability analysts to capture the aspects of the three sustainability dimensions into an analytical model. Additionally, the research findings presented can aid the construction of a holistic simulation model of a sustainable manufacturing and support effective decision-making.

Keywords: Life cycle sustainability analysis, sustainable manufacturing, sustainability performance assessment, sustainable product development.

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Authors: N. Boudiaf

Abstract:

One major difficulty that faces developers of concurrent and distributed software is analysis for concurrency based faults like deadlocks. Petri nets are used extensively in the verification of correctness of concurrent programs. ECATNets are a category of algebraic Petri nets based on a sound combination of algebraic abstract types and high-level Petri nets. ECATNets have 'sound' and 'complete' semantics because of their integration in rewriting logic and its programming language Maude. Rewriting logic is considered as one of very powerful logics in terms of description, verification and programming of concurrent systems We proposed previously a method for translating Ada-95 tasking programs to ECATNets formalism (Ada-ECATNet) and we showed that ECATNets formalism provides a more compact translation for Ada programs compared to the other approaches based on simple Petri nets or Colored Petri nets. We showed also previously how the ECATNet formalism offers to Ada many validation and verification tools like simulation, Model Checking, accessibility analysis and static analysis. In this paper, we describe the implementation of our translation of the Ada programs into ECATNets.

Keywords: Ada tasking, Analysis, Automatic Translation, ECATNets, Maude, Rewriting Logic.

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Authors: Phu-Cuong Nguyen, Seung-Eock Kim

Abstract:

This paper presents nonlinear elastic dynamic analysis of 3-D semi-rigid steel frames including geometric and connection nonlinearities. The geometric nonlinearity is considered by using stability functions and updating geometric stiffness matrix. The nonlinear behavior of the steel beam-to-column connection is considered by using a zero-length independent connection element comprising of six translational and rotational springs. The nonlinear dynamic equilibrium equations are solved by the Newmark numerical integration method. The nonlinear time-history analysis results are compared with those of previous studies and commercial SAP2000 software to verify the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed procedure.

Keywords: Geometric nonlinearity, nonlinear time-historyanalysis, semi-rigid connection, stability functions.

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

Abstract:

Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: Control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty.

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Authors: Shun Horikoshi, Tohru Kawabe

Abstract:

This study presents performance analysis results of SMC (Sliding mode control) with changing the chattering functions applied to slip suppression problem of electric vehicles (EVs). In SMC, chattering phenomenon always occurs through high frequency switching of the control inputs. It is undesirable phenomenon and degrade the control performance, since it causes the oscillations of the control inputs. Several studies have been conducted on this problem by introducing some general saturation function. However, study about whether saturation function was really best and the performance analysis when using the other functions, weren’t being done so much. Therefore, in this paper, several candidate functions for SMC are selected and control performance of candidate functions is analyzed. In the analysis, evaluation function based on the trade-off between slip suppression performance and chattering reduction performance is proposed. The analyses are conducted in several numerical simulations of slip suppression problem of EVs. Then, we can see that there is no difference of employed candidate functions in chattering reduction performance. On the other hand, in slip suppression performance, the saturation function is excellent overall. So, we conclude the saturation function is most suitable for slip suppression sliding mode control.

Keywords: Sliding mode control, chattering function, electric vehicle, slip suppression, performance analysis.

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Authors: Mohamed Abdelwahed

Abstract:

The aeration process via injectors is used to combat the lack of oxygen in lakes due to eutrophication. A 3D numerical simulation of the resulting flow using a simplified model is presented. In order to generate the best dynamic in the fluid with respect to the aeration purpose, the optimization of the injectors location is considered. We propose to adapt to this problem the topological sensitivity analysis method which gives the variation of a criterion with respect to the creation of a small hole in the domain. The main idea is to derive the topological sensitivity analysis of the physical model with respect to the insertion of an injector in the fluid flow domain. We propose in this work a topological optimization algorithm based on the studied asymptotic expansion. Finally we present some numerical results, showing the efficiency of our approach

Keywords: Quasi Stokes equations, Numerical simulation, topological optimization, sensitivity analysis.

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Authors: Padmanabhan Balasubramanian, Bashetty Raghavendra

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In this paper, an analysis is presented, which demonstrates the effect pre-logic factoring could have on an automated combinational logic synthesis process succeeding it. The impact of pre-logic factoring for some arbitrary combinatorial circuits synthesized within a FPGA based logic design environment has been analyzed previously. This paper explores a similar effect, but with the non-regenerative logic synthesized using elements of a commercial standard cell library. On an overall basis, the results obtained pertaining to the analysis on a variety of MCNC/IWLS combinational logic benchmark circuits indicate that pre-logic factoring has the potential to facilitate simultaneous power, delay and area optimized synthesis solutions in many cases.

Keywords: Algebraic factoring, Combinational logic synthesis, Standard cells, Low power, Delay optimization, Area reduction.

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Authors: Chun-Yao Lee, Hung-Chi Lin

Abstract:

This paper presents a signal analysis process for improving energy completeness based on the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT). Firstly, the vibration signal of a DC Motor obtained by employing an accelerometer is the model used to analyze the signal. Secondly, the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and Hilbert spectrum of the decomposed signal are obtained by applying HHT. The results of the IMFs constituent and the original signal are compared and the process of energy loss is discussed. Finally, the differences between Wavelet Transform (WT) and HHT in analyzing the signal are compared. The simulated results reveal the analysis process based on HHT is advantageous for the enhancement of energy completeness.

Keywords: Hilbert-Huang transform, Hilbert spectrum, Wavelettransform, Wavelet spectrum, DC Motor.

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Authors: H. B. Kekre, Kavita Patil

Abstract:

This paper describes a novel and effective approach to content-based image retrieval (CBIR) that represents each image in the database by a vector of feature values called “Standard deviation of mean vectors of color distribution of rows and columns of images for CBIR". In many areas of commerce, government, academia, and hospitals, large collections of digital images are being created. This paper describes the approach that uses contents as feature vector for retrieval of similar images. There are several classes of features that are used to specify queries: colour, texture, shape, spatial layout. Colour features are often easily obtained directly from the pixel intensities. In this paper feature extraction is done for the texture descriptor that is 'variance' and 'Variance of Variances'. First standard deviation of each row and column mean is calculated for R, G, and B planes. These six values are obtained for one image which acts as a feature vector. Secondly we calculate variance of the row and column of R, G and B planes of an image. Then six standard deviations of these variance sequences are calculated to form a feature vector of dimension six. We applied our approach to a database of 300 BMP images. We have determined the capability of automatic indexing by analyzing image content: color and texture as features and by applying a similarity measure Euclidean distance.

Keywords: Standard deviation Image retrieval, color distribution, Variance, Variance of Variance, Euclidean distance.

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Authors: N. Gigauri, V. Kukhalashvili, A. Surmava, L. Intskirveli, L. Gverdtsiteli

Abstract:

Tbilisi, a large city of the South Caucasus, is a junction point connecting Asia and Europe, Russia and republics of the Asia Minor. Over the last years, its atmosphere has been experienced an increasing anthropogenic load. Numerical modeling method is used for study of Tbilisi atmospheric air pollution. By means of 3D non-linear non-steady numerical model a peculiarity of city atmosphere pollution is investigated during background western light air. Dust concentration spatial and time changes are determined. There are identified the zones of high, average and less pollution, dust accumulation areas, transfer directions etc. By numerical modeling, there is shown that the process of air pollution by the dust proceeds in four stages, and they depend on the intensity of motor traffic, the micro-relief of the city, and the location of city mains. In the interval of time 06:00-09:00 the intensive growth, 09:00-15:00 a constancy or weak decrease, 18:00-21:00 an increase, and from 21:00 to 06:00 a reduction of the dust concentrations take place. The highly polluted areas are located in the vicinity of the city center and at some peripherical territories of the city, where the maximum dust concentration at 9PM is equal to 2 maximum allowable concentrations. The similar investigations conducted in case of various meteorological situations will enable us to compile the map of background urban pollution and to elaborate practical measures for ambient air protection.

Keywords: Numerical modelling, source of pollution, dust propagation, western light air.

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Authors: Thanomsin Chakreeves, Atichat Preittigun, Ajchara Phu-ang

Abstract:

This paper presents a stakeholder analysis of agricultural drone policies that meet the government's goal of building an agricultural drone ecosystem in Thailand. Firstly, case studies from other countries are reviewed. The stakeholder analysis method and qualitative data from the interviews are then presented including data from the Institute of Innovation and Management, the Office of National Higher Education Science Research and Innovation Policy Council, agricultural entrepreneurs and farmers. Study and interview data are then employed to describe the current ecosystem and to guide the implementation of agricultural drone policies that are suitable for the ecosystem of Thailand. Finally, policy recommendations are then made that the Thai government should adopt in the future.

Keywords: Drone public policy, drone ecosystem, policy development, agricultural drone.

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Authors: P. Sowa

Abstract:

The new idea of analyze of power system failure with use of artificial neural network is proposed. An analysis of the possibility of simulating phenomena accompanying system faults and restitution is described. It was indicated that the universal model for the simulation of phenomena in whole analyzed range does not exist. The main classic method of search of optimal structure and parameter identification are described shortly. The example with results of calculation is shown.

Keywords: Dynamic equivalents, Network reduction, Neural networks, Power system analysis.

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Authors: M.O. Makhmalbaf, F. Mohajeri Nav, M. Zabihi Samani

Abstract:

The recent drive for use of performance-based methodologies in design and assessment of structures in seismic areas has significantly increased the demand for the development of reliable nonlinear inelastic static pushover analysis tools. As a result, the adaptive pushover methods have been developed during the last decade, which unlike their conventional pushover counterparts, feature the ability to account for the effect that higher modes of vibration and progressive stiffness degradation might have on the distribution of seismic storey forces. Even in advanced pushover methods, little attention has been paid to the Unsymmetric structures. This study evaluates the seismic demands for three dimensional Unsymmetric-Plan buildings determined by the Displacement-based Adaptive Pushover (DAP) analysis, which has been introduced by Antoniou and Pinho [2004]. The capability of DAP procedure in capturing the torsional effects due to the irregularities of the structures, is investigated by comparing its estimates to the exact results, obtained from Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA). Also the capability of the procedure in prediction the seismic behaviour of the structure is discussed.

Keywords: Nonlinear static procedures, Unsymmetric-PlanBuildings, Torsional effects, IDA.

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Authors: Md Khairullah, Hai-Xiang Lin, Remus G. Hanea, Arnold W. Heemink

Abstract:

In this paper we describe the design and implementation of a parallel algorithm for data assimilation with ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for oil reservoir history matching problem. The use of large number of observations from time-lapse seismic leads to a large turnaround time for the analysis step, in addition to the time consuming simulations of the realizations. For efficient parallelization it is important to consider parallel computation at the analysis step. Our experiments show that parallelization of the analysis step in addition to the forecast step has good scalability, exploiting the same set of resources with some additional efforts.

Keywords: EnKF, Data assimilation, Parallel computing, Parallel efficiency.

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Authors: Adrian T.

Abstract:

In this paper a three dimensional thermal model of a power toroidal transformer is proposed for both steady-state or transient conditions. The influence of electric current and ambient temperature on the temperature distribution, has been investigated. To validate the three dimensional thermal model, some experimental tests have been done. There is a good correlation between experimental and simulation results.

Keywords: Temperature distribution, thermal analysis, toroidal transformer.

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Authors: J. A. Michline Rupa, S. Ganesh

Abstract:

This paper proposes a backward/forward sweep method to analyze the power flow in radial distribution systems. The distribution system has radial structure and high R/X ratios. So the newton-raphson and fast decoupled methods are failed with distribution system. The proposed method presents a load flow study using backward/forward sweep method, which is one of the most effective methods for the load-flow analysis of the radial distribution system. By using this method, power losses for each bus branch and voltage magnitudes for each bus node are determined. This method has been tested on IEEE 33-bus radial distribution system and effective results are obtained using MATLAB.

Keywords: Backward/Forward sweep method, Distribution system, Load flow analysis.

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Authors: Muhammad Irfan Aziz, Thomas Owens, Uzair Khaleeq uz Zaman

Abstract:

The instantaneous and spatial localization for visually impaired people in dynamically changing environments with unexpected hazards and obstacles, is the most demanding and challenging issue faced by the navigation systems today. Since Bluetooth cannot utilize techniques like Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) and Time of Arrival (TOA), it uses received signal strength indicator (RSSI) to measure Receive Signal Strength (RSS). The measurements using RSSI can be improved significantly by improving the existing methodologies related to RSSI. Therefore, the current paper focuses on proposing an improved method using trilateration for localization of Bluetooth devices for visually impaired people. To validate the method, class 2 Bluetooth devices were used along with the development of a software. Experiments were then conducted to obtain surface plots that showed the signal interferences and other environmental effects. Finally, the results obtained show the surface plots for all Bluetooth modules used along with the strong and weak points depicted as per the color codes in red, yellow and blue. It was concluded that the suggested improved method of measuring RSS using trilateration helped to not only measure signal strength affectively but also highlighted how the signal strength can be influenced by atmospheric conditions such as noise, reflections, etc.

Keywords: Bluetooth, indoor/outdoor localization, received signal strength indicator, visually impaired.

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Authors: Anjana Goen, D. C. Tiwari

Abstract:

Electromyography (EMG) is the study of muscles function through analysis of electrical activity produced from muscles. This electrical activity which is displayed in the form of signal is the result of neuromuscular activation associated with muscle contraction. The most common techniques of EMG signal recording are by using surface and needle/wire electrode where the latter is usually used for interest in deep muscle. This paper will focus on surface electromyogram (SEMG) signal. During SEMG recording, several problems had to been countered such as noise, motion artifact and signal instability. Thus, various signal processing techniques had been implemented to produce a reliable signal for analysis. SEMG signal finds broad application particularly in biomedical field. It had been analyzed and studied for various interests such as neuromuscular disease, enhancement of muscular function and human-computer interface.

Keywords: Evolvable hardware (EHW), Functional Electrical Simulation (FES), Hidden Markov Model (HMM), Hjorth Time Domain (HTD).

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Authors: Azeemsha Thacham Poyil, Nasimudeen KM

Abstract:

This research paper presents some methods to assess the performance of Wigner Ville Distribution for Time-Frequency representation of non-stationary signals, in comparison with the other representations like STFT, Spectrogram etc. The simultaneous timefrequency resolution of WVD is one of the important properties which makes it preferable for analysis and detection of linear FM and transient signals. There are two algorithms proposed here to assess the resolution and to compare the performance of signal detection. First method is based on the measurement of area under timefrequency plot; in case of a linear FM signal analysis. A second method is based on the instantaneous power calculation and is used in case of transient, non-stationary signals. The implementation is explained briefly for both methods with suitable diagrams. The accuracy of the measurements is validated to show the better performance of WVD representation in comparison with STFT and Spectrograms.

Keywords: WVD: Wigner Ville Distribution, STFT: Short Time Fourier Transform, FT: Fourier Transform, TFR: Time-Frequency Representation, FM: Frequency Modulation, LFM Signal: Linear FM Signal, JTFA: Joint time frequency analysis.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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Authors: A. Ince

Abstract:

In this paper, an analytical simplified method for calculating elasto-plastic stresses strains of notched bodies subject to non-proportional loading paths is discussed. The method was based on the Neuber notch correction, which relates the incremental elastic and elastic-plastic strain energy densities at the notch root and the material constitutive relationship. The validity of the method was presented by comparing computed results of the proposed model against finite element numerical data of notched shaft. The comparison showed that the model estimated notch-root elasto-plastic stresses strains with good accuracy using linear-elastic stresses. The prosed model provides more efficient and simple analysis method preferable to expensive experimental component tests and more complex and time consuming incremental non-linear FE analysis. The model is particularly suitable to perform fatigue life and fatigue damage estimates of notched components subjected to nonproportional loading paths.

Keywords: Elasto-plastic, stress-strain, notch analysis, nonprortional loadings, cyclic plasticity, fatigue.

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