Search results for: Drive test

Authors: Rabindra K. Panda, Gurjeet Singh

Abstract:

The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km² and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km² and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Keywords: Eastern India, long-term variability and trends, Mann-Kendall test, seasonality index, spatio-temporal variation.

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Authors: Chaiyut Sumpavakup, Thanatchai Kulworawanichpong

Abstract:

This paper presents the voltage regulation scheme of D-STATCOM under three-phase faults. It consists of the voltage detection and voltage regulation schemes in the 0dq reference. The proposed control strategy uses the proportional controller in which the proportional gain, kp, is appropriately adjusted by using genetic algorithms. To verify its use, a simplified 4-bus test system is situated by assuming a three-phase fault at bus 4. As a result, the DSTATCOM can resume the load voltage to the desired level within 1.8 ms. This confirms that the proposed voltage regulation scheme performs well under three-phase fault events.

Keywords: D-STATCOM, proportional controller, genetic algorithms.

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Authors: A. Ehsani, A. Karimizadeh, H. Fallahi, A. Jalali

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In an electric power system, spinning reserve requirements can be determined by using deterministic and/or probabilistic measures. Although deterministic methods are usual in many systems, application of probabilistic methods becomes increasingly important in the new environment of the electric power utility industry. This is because of the increased uncertainty associated with competition. In this paper 1) a new probabilistic method is presented which considers the reliability of transmission system in a simplified manner and 2) deterministic and probabilistic methods are compared. The studied methods are applied to the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS).

Keywords: Reliability, Spinning Reserve, Risk, Transmission, Unit Commitment.

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Authors: A. Md. Harunur Rashid B. Md. Keramat Ali Molla C. Tarif Uddin Ahmed

Abstract:

This paper represents the results of long term strength of mortar incorporating Rice Husk Ash (RHA). For these work mortar samples were made according to ASTM standard C 109/C. OPC cement was partially replaced by RHA at 0, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 percent replacement level. After casting all samples were kept in controlled environment and curing was done up to 90 days. Test of mortar was performed on 3, 7, 28, 90, 365 and 700 days. It is noticed that OPC mortar shows better strength at early age than mortar having RHA but at 90 days and onward the picture is different. At 700 days it is observed that mortar containing 20% RHA shows better result than any other samples.

Keywords: OPC, RHA, replacement level, long term, strength.

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Authors: Joon Ho Kim, Duck Su Kim, Tae Kwon Ha

Abstract:

Aluminum/Copper clad sheet has been fabricated using asymmetric extrusion method, which caused severe shear deformation between Al and Cu plate to easily bond to each other. Interfacial microstructure and mechanical properties of Al/Cu clad were studied by scanning electron microscope equipped with energy dispersive X-ray detector, micro-hardness, and tension tests. The asymmetric extrusion bonding was very effective to provide a good interface for atoms diffusion during subsequent annealing. The strength of bonding was higher with the increasing extrusion ratio.

Keywords: Aluminum/Copper clad sheet, Asymmetric extrusion, Interfacial microstructure, Annealing, Tensile test.

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Authors: Serkan Narli

Abstract:

This study aims to specify to what extent students understand topology during the lesson and to determine possible misconceptions. 14 teacher trainees registered at Secondary School Mathematics education department were observed in the topology lessons throughout a semester and data collected at the first topology lesson is presented here. Students- knowledge was evaluated using a written test right before and after the topology lesson. Thus, what the students learnt in terms of the definition and examples of topologic space were specified as well as possible misconceptions. The findings indicated that students did not fully comprehend the topic and misunderstandings were due to insufficient pre-requisite knowledge of abstract mathematical topics and mathematical notation.

Keywords: Mathematics Education, Teacher Education, Topology.

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Authors: Oana Pop, Constantin Barbulescu, Mircea Nemes, Stefan Kilyeni

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The tracing methods determine the contribution the power system sources have in their supplying. The methods can be used to assess the transmission prices, but also to recover the transmission fixed cost. In this paper is presented the influence of the modification of commons structure has on the specific price of transfer. The operator must make use of a few basic principles about allocation. Most tracing methods are based on the proportional sharing principle. In this paper Kirschen method is used. In order to illustrate this method, the 25- bus test system is used, elaborated within the Electrical Power Engineering Department, from Timisoara, Romania.

Keywords: Power systems, P-U bus, P-Q bus, tracing methods.

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Authors: Tomasz Dubiel, Tadeusz Balawender, Mirosław Osetek

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The paper presents the influence of non-metallic inclusions on the multi-stage forging process and the mechanical properties of the dodecagon socket bolt used in the automotive industry. The detected metallurgical defect was so large that it directly influenced the mechanical properties of the bolt and resulted in failure to meet the requirements of the mechanical property class. In order to assess the defect, an X-ray examination and metallographic examination of the defective bolt were performed, showing exogenous non-metallic inclusion. The size of the defect on the cross section was 0.531 mm in width and 1.523 mm in length; the defect was continuous along the entire axis of the bolt. In analysis, a finite element method (FEM) simulation of the multi-stage forging process was designed, taking into account a non-metallic inclusion parallel to the sample axis, reflecting the studied case. The process of defect propagation due to material upset in the head area was analyzed. The final forging stage in shaping the dodecagonal socket and filling the flange area was particularly studied. The effect of the defect was observed to significantly reduce the effective cross-section as a result of the expansion of the defect perpendicular to the axis of the bolt. The mechanical properties of products with and without the defect were analyzed. In the first step, the hardness test confirmed that the required value for the mechanical class 8.8 of both bolt types was obtained. In the second step, the bolts were subjected to a static tensile test. The bolts without the defect gave a positive result, while all 10 bolts with the defect gave a negative result, achieving a tensile strength below the requirements. Tensile strength tests were confirmed by metallographic tests and FEM simulation with perpendicular inclusion spread in the area of the head. The bolts were damaged directly under the bolt head, which is inconsistent with the requirements of ISO 898-1. It has been shown that non-metallic inclusions with orientation in accordance with the axis of the bolt can directly cause loss of functionality and these defects should be detected even before assembling in the machine element.

Keywords: continuous casting, multi-stage forging, non-metallic inclusion, upset bolt head

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Authors: H. El Ayech, A. Trabelsi

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In this article we are going to discuss the improvement of the multi classes- classification problem using multi layer Perceptron. The considered approach consists in breaking down the n-class problem into two-classes- subproblems. The training of each two-class subproblem is made independently; as for the phase of test, we are going to confront a vector that we want to classify to all two classes- models, the elected class will be the strongest one that won-t lose any competition with the other classes. Rates of recognition gotten with the multi class-s approach by two-class-s decomposition are clearly better that those gotten by the simple multi class-s approach.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, letter-recognition, Multi class Classification, Multi Layer Perceptron.

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Authors: Lee Yih Rou, Hishammuddin Asmuni

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Flexible Job Shop Problem (FJSP) is an extension of classical Job Shop Problem (JSP). The FJSP extends the routing flexibility of the JSP, i.e assigning machine to an operation. Thus it makes it more difficult than the JSP. In this study, Cooperative Coevolutionary Genetic Algorithm (CCGA) is presented to solve the FJSP. Makespan (time needed to complete all jobs) is used as the performance evaluation for CCGA. In order to test performance and efficiency of our CCGA the benchmark problems are solved. Computational result shows that the proposed CCGA is comparable with other approaches.

Keywords: Co-evolution, Genetic Algorithm (GA), Flexible JobShop Problem(FJSP)

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Authors: R. Suszynski, K. Wawryn, R. Wirski

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The new concept of two–dimensional (2D) image processing implementation for auto-guiding system is shown in this paper. It is dedicated to astrophotography and operates with astronomy CCD guide cameras or with self-guided dual-detector CCD cameras and ST4 compatible equatorial mounts. This idea was verified by MATLAB model, which was used to test all procedures and data conversions. Next the circuit prototype was implemented at Altera MAX II CPLD device and tested for real astronomical object images. The digital processing speed of CPLD prototype board was sufficient for correct equatorial mount guiding in real-time system.

Keywords: DSO astrophotography, image processing, twodimensionalconvolution method, two-dimensional filtering.

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Authors: Mai Al-Subaie

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This research suggests that women in traditional families of Saudi Arabia are divided into two groups, the one who conforms to the society and the new type of women that has been emerged due to the changing and development of the culture, who do not want to conform to the rules. The factors underlying the differences were explored by using a test and an interview. And that concluded some of the main factors that were a real affect of why some women still want to follow the society and traditional rules, and other want to break free.

Keywords: Conformity, Non-Conformity, Saudi Arabia, Women.

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Authors: S. Ge, T. Wu, HY. Tang, X. Xiao, K. Iramina, W. Wu

Abstract:

It is crucial to quantitatively evaluate the treatment of epilepsy patients. This study was undertaken to test the hypothesis that compared to the healthy control subjects, the epilepsy patients have abnormal resting-state connectivity. In this study, we used the imaginary part of coherency to measure the resting-state connectivity. The analysis results shown that compared to the healthy control subjects, epilepsy patients tend to have abnormal rhythm brain connectivity over their epileptic focus.

Keywords: Coherence, connectivity, resting-state, epilepsy

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Authors: Adekitan I. Aderibigbe, Fakolujo A. Olaosebikan

Abstract:

The parameters of a two-layer soil can be determined by processing resistivity data obtained from resistivity measurements carried out on the soil of interest. The processing usually entails applying the resistivity data as inputs to an optimisation function. This paper proposes an algorithm which utilises the square error as an optimisation function. Resistivity data from previous works were applied to test the accuracy of the new algorithm developed and the result obtained conforms significantly to results from previous works.

 

Keywords: Algorithm, earthing, resistivity, two-layer soil-model.

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Authors: Diana M.L. Wong

Abstract:

This paper presents an integrated case based and rule based reasoning method for car faulty diagnosis. The reasoning method is done through extracting the past cases from the Proton Service Center while comparing with the preset rules to deduce a diagnosis/solution to a car service case. New cases will be stored to the knowledge base. The test cases examples illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed integrated reasoning. It has proven accuracy of similar reasoning if carried out by a service advisor from the service center.

Keywords: component; case based reasoning (CBR), rule basedreasoning (RBR), decision support systems, diagnosis tool.

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Authors: Vinicius R. Domingues, Luan C. S. M. Ozelim

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The statistical study has become indispensable for various fields of knowledge. Not any different, in Geotechnics the study of probabilistic and statistical methods has gained power considering its use in characterizing the uncertainties inherent in soil properties. One of the situations where engineers are constantly faced is the definition of a probability distribution that represents significantly the sampled data. To be able to discard bad distributions, goodness-of-fit tests are necessary. In this paper, three non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests are applied to a data set computationally generated to test the goodness-of-fit of them to a series of known distributions. It is shown that the use of normal distribution does not always provide satisfactory results regarding physical and behavioral representation of the modeled parameters.

Keywords: Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, Cramer-Von-Mises, Nonparametric adherence tests.

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Authors: Koushlendra Kumar Singh, Manish Kumar Bajpai, Rajesh K. Pandey

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The edges of low contrast images are not clearly distinguishable to human eye. It is difficult to find the edges and boundaries in it. The present work encompasses a new approach for low contrast images. The Chebyshev polynomial based fractional order filter has been used for filtering operation on an image. The preprocessing has been performed by this filter on the input image. Laplacian of Gaussian method has been applied on preprocessed image for edge detection. The algorithm has been tested on two test images.

Keywords: Chebyshev polynomials, Fractional order differentiator, Laplacian of Gaussian (LoG) method, Low contrast image.

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Authors: Ľubomír Gajdoš, Martin Šperl

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This study offers a new simple method for assessing an axial part-through crack in a pipe wall. The method utilizes simple approximate expressions for determining the fracture parameters K, J, and employs these parameters to determine critical dimensions of a crack on the basis of equality between the J-integral and the J-based fracture toughness of the pipe steel. The crack tip constraint is taken into account by the so-called plastic constraint factor C, by which the uniaxial yield stress in the J-integral equation is multiplied. The results of the prediction of the fracture condition are verified by burst tests on test pipes.

Keywords: Axial crack, Fracture-mechanics, J integral, Pipeline wall.

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Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Afamefuna J. Ani, Ebere U. Okolo

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This paper seeks to assess the implications of insurance to foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria. Multiple linear regression technique and correlation matrix test were employed to measure the extent to which foreign direct investment was influenced. The result showed that insurance premium (IP), asset size of insurance industry (AS), and total investment of the industry (TI) impacted significantly and positively on foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria. There should be effective risk transfer mechanism and financial intermediation, which gives the investor confidence in the risk management strength of the host country.

Keywords: Foreign direct investment, insurance.

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Authors: Igbakura I. Luga, Alex A. Adikwu

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A comparison of resistance to quinolones was carried out on isolates of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coliO157:H7 from cattle and mecA and nuc genes harbouring Staphylococcus aureus from pigs. The isolates were separately tested in the first and current decades of the 21^st century. The objective was to demonstrate the dissemination of resistance to this frontline class of antibiotic by bacteria from food animals and bring to the limelight the spread of antibiotic resistance in Nigeria. A total of 10 isolates of the E. coli O157:H7 and 9 of mecA and nuc genes harbouring S. aureus were obtained following isolation, biochemical testing, and serological identification using the Remel Wellcolex E. coli O157:H7 test. Shiga toxin-production screening in the E. coli O157:H7 using the verotoxin E. coli reverse passive latex agglutination (VTEC-RPLA) test; and molecular identification of the mecA and nuc genes in S. aureus. Detection of the mecA and nuc genes were carried out using the protocol by the Danish Technical University (DTU) using the following primers mecA-1:5'-GGGATCATAGCGTCATTATTC-3', mecA-2: 5'-AACGATTGTGACACGATAGCC-3', nuc-1: 5'-TCAGCAAATGCATCACAAACAG-3', nuc-2: 5'-CGTAAATGCACTTGCTTCAGG-3' for the mecA and nuc genes, respectively. The nuc genes confirm the S. aureus isolates and the mecA genes as being methicillin-resistant and so pathogenic to man. The fluoroquinolones used in the antibiotic resistance testing were norfloxacin (10 µg) and ciprofloxacin (5 µg) in the E. coli O157:H7 isolates and ciprofloxacin (5 µg) in the S. aureus isolates. Susceptibility was tested using the disk diffusion method on Muller-Hinton agar. Fluoroquinolone resistance was not detected from isolates of E. coli O157:H7 from cattle. However, 44% (4/9) of the S. aureus were resistant to ciprofloxacin. Resistance of up to 44% in isolates of mecA and nuc genes harbouring S. aureus is a compelling evidence for the rapid spread of antibiotic resistance from bacteria in food animals from Nigeria. Ciprofloxacin is the drug of choice for the treatment of Typhoid fever, therefore widespread resistance to it in pathogenic bacteria is of great public health significance. The study concludes that antibiotic resistance in bacteria from food animals is on the increase in Nigeria. The National Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) agency in Nigeria should implement the World Health Organization (WHO) global action plan on antimicrobial resistance. A good starting point can be coordinating the WHO, Office of International Epizootics (OIE), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) tripartite draft antimicrobial resistance monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework in Nigeria.

Keywords: Fluoroquinolone, Nigeria, resistance, Staphylococcus aureus.

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Authors: Robert Cep, Jana Petru, Lenka Cepova, Tomas Zlamal

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Paper is dealing by testing of IN23 ceramic cutting tools at irregular shocks at special fixture - interrupted cut simulator. Standard tests provided at fixture were at regular interrupted cut at 4 slats by 90°. These new tests will be at irregular cut for 1 slat, 2 slats against each other, 2 slats side by side, 3 slats and 4 slats. The main goal is check if irregular shocks have influence at mechanical and thermal shock at tool life of cutting inserts. 

Keywords: Test, Ceramic Cutting Tool, Irregular Interrupted Cut.

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Authors: Mounira RouaÐùnia, Noureddine Doghmane

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In this paper we consider the problem of change detection and non stationary signals tracking. Using parametric estimation of signals based on least square lattice adaptive filters we consider for change detection statistical parametric methods using likelihood ratio and hypothesis tests. In order to track signals dynamics, we introduce a compensation procedure in the adaptive estimation. This will improve the adaptive estimation performances and fasten it-s convergence after changes detection.

Keywords: Change detection, Hypothesis test, likelihood ratioleast square lattice adaptive filters.

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Authors: S. S. Dol

Abstract:

Improvement in vehicle efficiency can reduce global fossil fuels consumptions. For that sole reason, Shell Global Corporation introduces Shell Eco-marathon where student teams require to design, build and test energy-efficient vehicles. Hence, this paper will focus on design processes and the development of a fuel economic vehicle which satisfying the requirements of the competition. In this project, three components are designed and analyzed, which are the body, chassis and powertrain of the vehicle. Optimum design for each component is produced through simulation analysis and theoretical calculation in which improvement is made as the project progresses.

Keywords: Energy efficient vehicle, drag force, chassis, powertrain.

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Authors: Mahfuz Judeh

Abstract:

The main aim of the current study was to examine the effect of emotional intelligence on retention. The study also aimed at analyzing the role of job involvement, as a moderator, in the effect of emotional intelligence on retention. Using data gathered from 241 employees working with hotels and tourism corporations listed in Amman Stock Exchange in Jordan, emotional intelligence, job involvement and retention were measured. Hierarchical regression analyses were used to test the three main hypotheses. Results indicated that retention was related to emotional intelligence. Moreover, the study yielded support for the claim that job involvement had a moderating effect on the relationship between emotional intelligence and retention.

Keywords: Emotional Intelligence, Job Involvement, Jordan, Retention.

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Authors: Daniel Kostrzewa, Henryk Josiński

Abstract:

The expanded Invasive Weed Optimization algorithm (exIWO) is an optimization metaheuristic modelled on the original IWO version created by the researchers from the University of Tehran. The authors of the present paper have extended the exIWO algorithm introducing a set of both deterministic and non-deterministic strategies of individuals’ selection. The goal of the project was to evaluate the exIWO by testing its usefulness for solving some test instances of the traveling salesman problem (TSP) taken from the TSPLIB collection which allows comparing the experimental results with optimal values.

Keywords: Expanded Invasive Weed Optimization algorithm (exIWO), Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP), heuristic approach, inversion operator.

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Authors: A. Páchová

Abstract:

Working memory (WM) can be defined as the system which actively holds information in the mind to do tasks in spite of the distraction. Contrary, short-term memory (STM) is a system that represents the capacity for the active storing of information without distraction. There has been accumulating evidence that these types of memory are related to higher cognition (HC). The aim of this study was to verify the relationship between HC and memory (visual STM and WM, auditory STM and WM). 59 primary school children were tested by intelligence test, mathematical tasks (HC) and memory subtests. We have shown that visual but not auditory memory is a significant predictor of higher cognition. The relevance of these results are discussed.

Keywords: higher cognition, long-term memory, short-term memory, working memory

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Authors: Diriba T. Balcha, Boris Kulig, Oliver Hensel, Eyassu Woldesenbet

Abstract:

Enset fiber is agricultural waste and available in a surplus amount in Ethiopia. However, the hypothesized variation in properties of this fiber due to diversity of its plant source breed, fiber position within plant stem and chemical treatment duration had not proven that its application for the development of composite products is problematic. Currently, limited data are known on the functional properties of the fiber as a potential functional fiber. Thus, an effort is made in this study to narrow the knowledge gaps by characterizing it. The experimental design was conducted using Design-Expert software and the tensile test was conducted on Enset fiber from 10 breeds: Dego, Dirbo, Gishera, Itine, Siskela, Neciho, Yesherkinke, Tuzuma, Ankogena, and Kucharkia. The effects of 5% Na-OH surface treatment duration and fiber location along and across the plant pseudostem was also investigated. The test result shows that the rupture stress variation is not significant among the fibers from 10 Enset breeds. However, strain variation is significant among the fibers from 10 Enset breeds that breed Dego fiber has the highest strain before failure. Surface treated fibers showed improved rupture strength and elastic modulus per 24 hours of treatment duration. Also, the result showed that chemical treatment can deteriorate the load-bearing capacity of the fiber. The raw fiber has the higher load-bearing capacity than the treated fiber. And, it was noted that both the rupture stress and strain increase in the top to bottom gradient, whereas there is no significant variation across the stem. Elastic modulus variation both along and across the stem was insignificant. The rupture stress, elastic modulus, and strain result of Enset fiber are 360.11 ± 181.86 MPa, 12.80 ± 6.85 GPa and 0.04 ± 0.02 mm/mm, respectively. These results show that Enset fiber is comparable to other natural fibers such as abaca, banana, and sisal fibers and can be used as alternatives natural fiber for composites application. Besides, the insignificant variation of properties among breeds and across stem is essential for all breeds and all leaf sheath of the Enset fiber plant for fiber extraction. The use of short natural fiber over the long is preferable to reduce the significant variation of properties along the stem or fiber direction. In conclusion, Enset fiber application for composite product design and development is mechanically feasible.

Keywords: Agricultural waste, chemical treatment, fiber characteristics, natural fiber.

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Authors: J. Ramos, V. Gil, A. F. Torres

Abstract:

In this research (using induction furnace process) nodular iron with three different percentages of copper (residual, 0.5% and 1,2%) was obtained. Chemical analysis was performed by mass spectrometry and microstructures were characterized by Optical Microscopy (ASTM E3) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). The study of mechanical behavior was carried out in a mechanical test machine (ASTM E8) and a Pin on disk tribometer (ASTM G99) was used to assess wear resistance. It is observed that the dissolution of copper in crystal lattice increases the pearlite structure improving the wear and hardness behavior, but producing a contrary effect on the energy absorption.

Keywords: Ferritic and perlite structure, mechanical properties, nodular iron, wear.

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Authors: Feddaoui Amina

Abstract:

This paper aimed to help researchers and international companies to the differences and similarities between IFRS (International financial reporting standards) and UK GAAP or UK accounting principles, and to the accounting changes between standard setting of the International Accounting Standards Board and the Accounting Standards Board in United Kingdom. We will use in this study statistical methods to calculate similarities and difference frequencies between the UK standards and IFRS standards, according to the PricewaterhouseCoopers report in 2005. We will use the one simple test to confirm or refuse our hypothesis. In conclusion, we found that the gap between UK GAAP and IFRS is small.

Keywords: Accounting, UK GAAP, IFRS, similarities, differences.

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Authors: Wan-Yu Liu

Abstract:

To respond to the Kyoto Protocol, the policy of Payment for Environmental Service (PES), which was entitled “Plain Landscape Afforestation Program (PLAP)", was certified by Executive Yuan in Taiwan on 31 August 2001 and has been implementing for six years since 1 January 2002. Although the PLAP has received a lot of positive comments, there are still many difficulties during the process of implementation, such as insufficient technology for afforestation, private landowners- low interests in participating in PLAP, insufficient subsidies, and so on, which are potential threats that hinder the PLAP from moving forward in future. In this paper, selecting Ping-Tung County in Taiwan as a sample region and targeting those private landowners with and without intention to participate in the PLAP, respectively, we conduct an empirical analysis based on the Logit model to investigate the factors that determine whether those private landowners join the PLAP, so as to realize the incentive effects of the PLAP upon the personal decision on afforestation. The possible factors that might determine private landowner-s participation in the PLAP include landowner-s characteristics, cropland characteristics, as well as policy factors. Among them, the policy factors include afforestation subsidy amount (+), duration of afforestation subsidy (+), the rules on adjoining and adjacent areas (+), and so on, which do not reach the remarkable level in statistics though, but the directions of variable signs are consistent with the intuition behind the policy. As for the landowners- characteristics, each of age (+), education level (–), and annual household income (+) variables reaches 10% of the remarkable level in statistics; as for the cropland characteristics, each of cropland area (+), cropland price (–), and the number of cropland parcels (–) reaches 1% of the remarkable level in statistics. In light of the above, the cropland characteristics are the dominate factor that determines the probability of landowner-s participation in the PLAP. In the Logit model established by this paper, the probability of correctly estimating nonparticipants is 98%, the probability of correctly estimating the participants is 71.8%, and the probability for the overall estimation is 95%. In addition, Hosmer-Lemeshow test and omnibus test also revealed that the Logit model in this paper may provide fine goodness of fit and good predictive power in forecasting private landowners- participation in this program. The empirical result of this paper expects to help the implementation of the afforestation programs in Taiwan.

Keywords: Forestry policy, logit, afforestation subsidy, afforestation policy.

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