Search results for: variational Bayesian approximation
489 The Profit Trend of Cosmetics Products Using Bootstrap Edgeworth Approximation
Authors: Edlira Donefski, Lorenc Ekonomi, Tina Donefski
Abstract:
Edgeworth approximation is one of the most important statistical methods that has a considered contribution in the reduction of the sum of standard deviation of the independent variables’ coefficients in a Quantile Regression Model. This model estimates the conditional median or other quantiles. In this paper, we have applied approximating statistical methods in an economical problem. We have created and generated a quantile regression model to see how the profit gained is connected with the realized sales of the cosmetic products in a real data, taken from a local business. The Linear Regression of the generated profit and the realized sales was not free of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, so this is the reason that we have used this model instead of Linear Regression. Our aim is to analyze in more details the relation between the variables taken into study: the profit and the finalized sales and how to minimize the standard errors of the independent variable involved in this study, the level of realized sales. The statistical methods that we have applied in our work are Edgeworth Approximation for Independent and Identical distributed (IID) cases, Bootstrap version of the Model and the Edgeworth approximation for Bootstrap Quantile Regression Model. The graphics and the results that we have presented here identify the best approximating model of our study.Keywords: Bootstrap, Edgeworth approximation, independent and Identical distributed, quantile.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 441488 Integrating Low and High Level Object Recognition Steps
Authors: András Barta, István Vajk
Abstract:
In pattern recognition applications the low level segmentation and the high level object recognition are generally considered as two separate steps. The paper presents a method that bridges the gap between the low and the high level object recognition. It is based on a Bayesian network representation and network propagation algorithm. At the low level it uses hierarchical structure of quadratic spline wavelet image bases. The method is demonstrated for a simple circuit diagram component identification problem.Keywords: Object recognition, Bayesian network, Wavelets, Document processing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1485487 On the Parameter of the Burr Type X under Bayesian Principles
Authors: T. N. Sindhu, M. Aslam
Abstract:
A comprehensive Bayesian analysis has been carried out in the context of informative and non-informative priors for the shape parameter of the Burr type X distribution under different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions. Elicitation of hyperparameter through prior predictive approach is also discussed. Also we derive the expression for posterior predictive distributions, predictive intervals and the credible Intervals. As an illustration, comparisons of these estimators are made through simulation study.
Keywords: Credible Intervals, Loss Functions, Posterior Predictive Distributions, Predictive Intervals.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1506486 Integrating Low and High Level Object Recognition Steps by Probabilistic Networks
Authors: András Barta, István Vajk
Abstract:
In pattern recognition applications the low level segmentation and the high level object recognition are generally considered as two separate steps. The paper presents a method that bridges the gap between the low and the high level object recognition. It is based on a Bayesian network representation and network propagation algorithm. At the low level it uses hierarchical structure of quadratic spline wavelet image bases. The method is demonstrated for a simple circuit diagram component identification problem.
Keywords: Object recognition, Bayesian network, Wavelets, Document processing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1671485 Multiresolution Approach to Subpixel Registration by Linear Approximation of PSF
Authors: Erol Seke, Kemal Özkan
Abstract:
Linear approximation of point spread function (PSF) is a new method for determining subpixel translations between images. The problem with the actual algorithm is the inability of determining translations larger than 1 pixel. In this paper a multiresolution technique is proposed to deal with the problem. Its performance is evaluated by comparison with two other well known registration method. In the proposed technique the images are downsampled in order to have a wider view. Progressively decreasing the downsampling rate up to the initial resolution and using linear approximation technique at each step, the algorithm is able to determine translations of several pixels in subpixel levels.
Keywords: Point Spread Function, Subpixel translation, Superresolution, Multiresolution approach.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1663484 Design of Stable IIR Digital Filters with Specified Group Delay Errors
Authors: Yasunori Sugita, Toshinori Yoshikawa
Abstract:
The design problem of Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) digital filters is usually expressed as the minimization problem of the complex magnitude error that includes both the magnitude and phase information. However, the group delay of the filter obtained by solving such design problem may be far from the desired group delay. In this paper, we propose a design method of stable IIR digital filters with prespecified maximum group delay errors. In the proposed method, the approximation problems of the magnitude-phase and group delay are separately defined, and these two approximation problems are alternately solved using successive projections. As a result, the proposed method can design the IIR filters that satisfy the prespecified allowable errors for not only the complex magnitude but also the group delay by alternately executing the coefficient update for the magnitude-phase and the group delay approximation. The usefulness of the proposed method is verified through some examples.Keywords: Filter design, Group delay approximation, Stable IIRfilters, Successive projection method.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1561483 Bayesian Online Learning of Corresponding Points of Objects with Sequential Monte Carlo
Authors: Miika Toivanen, Jouko Lampinen
Abstract:
This paper presents an online method that learns the corresponding points of an object from un-annotated grayscale images containing instances of the object. In the first image being processed, an ensemble of node points is automatically selected which is matched in the subsequent images. A Bayesian posterior distribution for the locations of the nodes in the images is formed. The likelihood is formed from Gabor responses and the prior assumes the mean shape of the node ensemble to be similar in a translation and scale free space. An association model is applied for separating the object nodes and background nodes. The posterior distribution is sampled with Sequential Monte Carlo method. The matched object nodes are inferred to be the corresponding points of the object instances. The results show that our system matches the object nodes as accurately as other methods that train the model with annotated training images.Keywords: Bayesian modeling, Gabor filters, Online learning, Sequential Monte Carlo.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1582482 Inferential Reasoning for Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Mission
Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber
Abstract:
We describe issues bedeviling the coordination of heterogeneous (different sensors carrying agents) multi-agent missions such as belief conflict, situation reasoning, etc. We applied Bayesian and agents' presumptions inferential reasoning to solve the outlined issues with the heterogeneous multi-agent belief variation and situational-base reasoning. Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was used in modeling the agents' belief conflict due to sensor variations. Simulation experiments were designed, and cases from agents’ missions were used in training the BBN using gradient descent and expectation-maximization algorithms. The output network is a well-trained BBN for making inferences for both agents and human experts. We claim that the Bayesian learning algorithm prediction capacity improves by the number of training data and argue that it enhances multi-agents robustness and solve agents’ sensor conflicts.Keywords: Distributed constraint optimization problem, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 640481 A Generalized Sparse Bayesian Learning Algorithm for Near-Field Synthetic Aperture Radar Imaging: By Exploiting Impropriety and Noncircularity
Authors: Pan Long, Bi Dongjie, Li Xifeng, Xie Yongle
Abstract:
The near-field synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging is an advanced nondestructive testing and evaluation (NDT&E) technique. This paper investigates the complex-valued signal processing related to the near-field SAR imaging system, where the measurement data turns out to be noncircular and improper, meaning that the complex-valued data is correlated to its complex conjugate. Furthermore, we discover that the degree of impropriety of the measurement data and that of the target image can be highly correlated in near-field SAR imaging. Based on these observations, A modified generalized sparse Bayesian learning algorithm is proposed, taking impropriety and noncircularity into account. Numerical results show that the proposed algorithm provides performance gain, with the help of noncircular assumption on the signals.Keywords: Complex-valued signal processing, synthetic aperture radar (SAR), 2-D radar imaging, compressive sensing, Sparse Bayesian learning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1525480 A New Approach to Solve Blasius Equation using Parameter Identification of Nonlinear Functions based on the Bees Algorithm (BA)
Authors: E. Assareh, M.A. Behrang, M. Ghalambaz, A.R. Noghrehabadi, A. Ghanbarzadeh
Abstract:
In this paper, a new approach is introduced to solve Blasius equation using parameter identification of a nonlinear function which is used as approximation function. Bees Algorithm (BA) is applied in order to find the adjustable parameters of approximation function regarding minimizing a fitness function including these parameters (i.e. adjustable parameters). These parameters are determined how the approximation function has to satisfy the boundary conditions. In order to demonstrate the presented method, the obtained results are compared with another numerical method. Present method can be easily extended to solve a wide range of problems.Keywords: Bees Algorithm (BA); Approximate Solutions; Blasius Differential Equation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1801479 Generalization Kernel for Geopotential Approximation by Harmonic Splines
Authors: Elena Kotevska
Abstract:
This paper presents a generalization kernel for gravitational potential determination by harmonic splines. It was shown in [10] that the gravitational potential can be approximated using a kernel represented as a Newton integral over the real Earth body. On the other side, the theory of geopotential approximation by harmonic splines uses spherically oriented kernels. The purpose of this paper is to show that in the spherical case both kernels have the same type of representation, which leads us to conclusion that it is possible to consider the kernel represented as a Newton integral over the real Earth body as a kind of generalization of spherically harmonic kernels to real geometries.Keywords: Geopotential, Reproducing Kernel, Approximation, Regular Surface
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1297478 Pragati Node Popularity (PNP) Approach to Identify Congestion Hot Spots in MPLS
Authors: E. Ramaraj, A. Padmapriya
Abstract:
In large Internet backbones, Service Providers typically have to explicitly manage the traffic flows in order to optimize the use of network resources. This process is often referred to as Traffic Engineering (TE). Common objectives of traffic engineering include balance traffic distribution across the network and avoiding congestion hot spots. Raj P H and SVK Raja designed the Bayesian network approach to identify congestion hors pots in MPLS. In this approach for every node in the network the Conditional Probability Distribution (CPD) is specified. Based on the CPD the congestion hot spots are identified. Then the traffic can be distributed so that no link in the network is either over utilized or under utilized. Although the Bayesian network approach has been implemented in operational networks, it has a number of well known scaling issues. This paper proposes a new approach, which we call the Pragati (means Progress) Node Popularity (PNP) approach to identify the congestion hot spots with the network topology alone. In the new Pragati Node Popularity approach, IP routing runs natively over the physical topology rather than depending on the CPD of each node as in Bayesian network. We first illustrate our approach with a simple network, then present a formal analysis of the Pragati Node Popularity approach. Our PNP approach shows that for any given network of Bayesian approach, it exactly identifies the same result with minimum efforts. We further extend the result to a more generic one: for any network topology and even though the network is loopy. A theoretical insight of our result is that the optimal routing is always shortest path routing with respect to some considerations of hot spots in the networks.Keywords: Conditional Probability Distribution, Congestion hotspots, Operational Networks, Traffic Engineering.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1987477 A Parallel Approach for 3D-Variational Data Assimilation on GPUs in Ocean Circulation Models
Authors: Rossella Arcucci, Luisa D’Amore, Simone Celestino, Giuseppe Scotti, Giuliano Laccetti
Abstract:
This work is the first dowel in a rather wide research activity in collaboration with Euro Mediterranean Center for Climate Changes, aimed at introducing scalable approaches in Ocean Circulation Models. We discuss designing and implementation of a parallel algorithm for solving the Variational Data Assimilation (DA) problem on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). The algorithm is based on the fully scalable 3DVar DA model, previously proposed by the authors, which uses a Domain Decomposition approach (we refer to this model as the DD-DA model). We proceed with an incremental porting process consisting of 3 distinct stages: requirements and source code analysis, incremental development of CUDA kernels, testing and optimization. Experiments confirm the theoretic performance analysis based on the so-called scale up factor demonstrating that the DD-DA model can be suitably mapped on GPU architectures.Keywords: Data Assimilation, Parallel Algorithm, GPU architectures, Ocean Models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2010476 Improving Flash Flood Forecasting with a Bayesian Probabilistic Approach: A Case Study on the Posina Basin in Italy
Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya
Abstract:
The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.
Keywords: Flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 748475 Distributed Generator Placement and Sizing in Unbalanced Radial Distribution System
Authors: J. B. V. Subrahmanyam, C. Radhakrishna
Abstract:
To minimize power losses, it is important to determine the location and size of local generators to be placed in unbalanced power distribution systems. On account of some inherent features of unbalanced distribution systems, such as radial structure, large number of nodes, a wide range of X/R ratios, the conventional techniques developed for the transmission systems generally fail on the determination of optimum size and location of distributed generators (DGs). This paper presents a simple method for investigating the problem of contemporaneously choosing best location and size of DG in three-phase unbalanced radial distribution system (URDS) for power loss minimization and to improve the voltage profile of the system. Best location of the DG is determined by using voltage index analysis and size of DG is computed by variational technique algorithm according to available standard size of DGs. This paper presents the results of simulations for 25-bus and IEEE 37- bus Unbalanced Radial Distribution system.Keywords: Distributed generator, unbalanced radial distributionsystem, voltage index analysis, variational algorithm.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3738474 Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Schemes to Model Public Health Services
Authors: Sotirios Raptis
Abstract:
Bayesian reasoning (BR) or Linear (Auto) Regression (AR/LR) can predict different sources of data using priors or other data, and can link social service demands in cohorts, while their consideration in isolation (self-prediction) may lead to service misuse ignoring the context. The paper advocates that BR with Binomial (BD), or Normal (ND) models or raw data (.D) as probabilistic updates can be compared to AR/LR to link services in Scotland and reduce cost by sharing healthcare (HC) resources. Clustering, cross-correlation, along with BR, LR, AR can better predict demand. Insurance companies and policymakers can link such services, and examples include those offered to the elderly, and low-income people, smoking-related services linked to mental health services, or epidemiological weight in children. 22 service packs are used that are published by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019, broken into 110 year series (factors), joined using LR, AR, BR. The Primary component analysis found 11 significant factors, while C-Means (CM) clustering gave five major clusters.
Keywords: Bayesian probability, cohorts, data frames, regression, services, prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 223473 Estimation of Bayesian Sample Size for Binomial Proportions Using Areas P-tolerance with Lowest Posterior Loss
Authors: H. Bevrani, N. Najafi
Abstract:
This paper uses p-tolerance with the lowest posterior loss, quadratic loss function, average length criteria, average coverage criteria, and worst outcome criterion for computing of sample size to estimate proportion in Binomial probability function with Beta prior distribution. The proposed methodology is examined, and its effectiveness is shown.Keywords: Bayesian inference, Beta-binomial Distribution, LPLcriteria, quadratic loss function.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1750472 Bayesian Networks for Earthquake Magnitude Classification in a Early Warning System
Authors: G. Zazzaro, F.M. Pisano, G. Romano
Abstract:
During last decades, worldwide researchers dedicated efforts to develop machine-based seismic Early Warning systems, aiming at reducing the huge human losses and economic damages. The elaboration time of seismic waveforms is to be reduced in order to increase the time interval available for the activation of safety measures. This paper suggests a Data Mining model able to correctly and quickly estimate dangerousness of the running seismic event. Several thousand seismic recordings of Japanese and Italian earthquakes were analyzed and a model was obtained by means of a Bayesian Network (BN), which was tested just over the first recordings of seismic events in order to reduce the decision time and the test results were very satisfactory. The model was integrated within an Early Warning System prototype able to collect and elaborate data from a seismic sensor network, estimate the dangerousness of the running earthquake and take the decision of activating the warning promptly.Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Decision Support System, Magnitude Classification, Seismic Early Warning System
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3598471 Bayesian Inference for Phase Unwrapping Using Conjugate Gradient Method in One and Two Dimensions
Authors: Yohei Saika, Hiroki Sakaematsu, Shota Akiyama
Abstract:
We investigated statistical performance of Bayesian inference using maximum entropy and MAP estimation for several models which approximated wave-fronts in remote sensing using SAR interferometry. Using Monte Carlo simulation for a set of wave-fronts generated by assumed true prior, we found that the method of maximum entropy realized the optimal performance around the Bayes-optimal conditions by using model of the true prior and the likelihood representing optical measurement due to the interferometer. Also, we found that the MAP estimation regarded as a deterministic limit of maximum entropy almost achieved the same performance as the Bayes-optimal solution for the set of wave-fronts. Then, we clarified that the MAP estimation perfectly carried out phase unwrapping without using prior information, and also that the MAP estimation realized accurate phase unwrapping using conjugate gradient (CG) method, if we assumed the model of the true prior appropriately.
Keywords: Bayesian inference using maximum entropy, MAP estimation using conjugate gradient method, SAR interferometry.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1751470 Bond Graph and Bayesian Networks for Reliable Diagnosis
Authors: Abdelaziz Zaidi, Belkacem Ould Bouamama, Moncef Tagina
Abstract:
Bond Graph as a unified multidisciplinary tool is widely used not only for dynamic modelling but also for Fault Detection and Isolation because of its structural and causal proprieties. A binary Fault Signature Matrix is systematically generated but to make the final binary decision is not always feasible because of the problems revealed by such method. The purpose of this paper is introducing a methodology for the improvement of the classical binary method of decision-making, so that the unknown and identical failure signatures can be treated to improve the robustness. This approach consists of associating the evaluated residuals and the components reliability data to build a Hybrid Bayesian Network. This network is used in two distinct inference procedures: one for the continuous part and the other for the discrete part. The continuous nodes of the network are the prior probabilities of the components failures, which are used by the inference procedure on the discrete part to compute the posterior probabilities of the failures. The developed methodology is applied to a real steam generator pilot process.Keywords: Redundancy relations, decision-making, Bond Graph, reliability, Bayesian Networks.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2525469 Feature-Driven Classification of Musical Styles
Authors: A. Buzzanca, G. Castellano, A.M. Fanelli
Abstract:
In this paper we address the problem of musical style classification, which has a number of applications like indexing in musical databases or automatic composition systems. Starting from MIDI files of real-world improvisations, we extract the melody track and cut it into overlapping segments of equal length. From these fragments, some numerical features are extracted as descriptors of style samples. We show that a standard Bayesian classifier can be conveniently employed to build an effective musical style classifier, once this set of features has been extracted from musical data. Preliminary experimental results show the effectiveness of the developed classifier that represents the first component of a musical audio retrieval systemKeywords: Musical style, Bayesian classifier.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1297468 The Error Analysis of An Upwind Difference Approximation for a Singularly Perturbed Problem
Authors: Jiming Yang
Abstract:
An upwind difference approximation is used for a singularly perturbed problem in material science. Based on the discrete Green-s function theory, the error estimate in maximum norm is achieved, which is first-order uniformly convergent with respect to the perturbation parameter. The numerical experimental result is verified the valid of the theoretical analysis.
Keywords: Singularly perturbed, upwind difference, uniform convergence.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1398467 A New Method for Contour Approximation Using Basic Ramer Idea
Authors: Ali Abdrhman Ukasha
Abstract:
This paper presented two new efficient algorithms for contour approximation. The proposed algorithm is compared with Ramer (good quality), Triangle (faster) and Trapezoid (fastest) in this work; which are briefly described. Cartesian co-ordinates of an input contour are processed in such a manner that finally contours is presented by a set of selected vertices of the edge of the contour. In the paper the main idea of the analyzed procedures for contour compression is performed. For comparison, the mean square error and signal-to-noise ratio criterions are used. Computational time of analyzed methods is estimated depending on a number of numerical operations. Experimental results are obtained both in terms of image quality, compression ratios, and speed. The main advantages of the analyzed algorithm is small numbers of the arithmetic operations compared to the existing algorithms.Keywords: Polygonal approximation, Ramer, Triangle and Trapezoid methods.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1805466 Order Statistics-based “Anti-Bayesian“ Parametric Classification for Asymmetric Distributions in the Exponential Family
Authors: A. Thomas, B. John Oommen
Abstract:
Although the field of parametric Pattern Recognition (PR) has been thoroughly studied for over five decades, the use of the Order Statistics (OS) of the distributions to achieve this has not been reported. The pioneering work on using OS for classification was presented in [1] for the Uniform distribution, where it was shown that optimal PR can be achieved in a counter-intuitive manner, diametrically opposed to the Bayesian paradigm, i.e., by comparing the testing sample to a few samples distant from the mean. This must be contrasted with the Bayesian paradigm in which, if we are allowed to compare the testing sample with only a single point in the feature space from each class, the optimal strategy would be to achieve this based on the (Mahalanobis) distance from the corresponding central points, for example, the means. In [2], we showed that the results could be extended for a few symmetric distributions within the exponential family. In this paper, we attempt to extend these results significantly by considering asymmetric distributions within the exponential family, for some of which even the closed form expressions of the cumulative distribution functions are not available. These distributions include the Rayleigh, Gamma and certain Beta distributions. As in [1] and [2], the new scheme, referred to as Classification by Moments of Order Statistics (CMOS), attains an accuracy very close to the optimal Bayes’ bound, as has been shown both theoretically and by rigorous experimental testing.
Keywords: Classification using Order Statistics (OS), Exponential family, Moments of OS
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1529465 Bayesian Network Model for Students- Laboratory Work Performance Assessment: An Empirical Investigation of the Optimal Construction Approach
Authors: Ifeyinwa E. Achumba, Djamel Azzi, Rinat Khusainov
Abstract:
There are three approaches to complete Bayesian Network (BN) model construction: total expert-centred, total datacentred, and semi data-centred. These three approaches constitute the basis of the empirical investigation undertaken and reported in this paper. The objective is to determine, amongst these three approaches, which is the optimal approach for the construction of a BN-based model for the performance assessment of students- laboratory work in a virtual electronic laboratory environment. BN models were constructed using all three approaches, with respect to the focus domain, and compared using a set of optimality criteria. In addition, the impact of the size and source of the training, on the performance of total data-centred and semi data-centred models was investigated. The results of the investigation provide additional insight for BN model constructors and contribute to literature providing supportive evidence for the conceptual feasibility and efficiency of structure and parameter learning from data. In addition, the results highlight other interesting themes.Keywords: Bayesian networks, model construction, parameterlearning, structure learning, performance index, model comparison.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1727464 Study of a BVAR(p) Process Applied to U.S. Commodity Market Data
Authors: Jan Sindelar
Abstract:
The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.
Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1198463 Function Approximation with Radial Basis Function Neural Networks via FIR Filter
Authors: Kyu Chul Lee, Sung Hyun Yoo, Choon Ki Ahn, Myo Taeg Lim
Abstract:
Recent experimental evidences have shown that because of a fast convergence and a nice accuracy, neural networks training via extended kalman filter (EKF) method is widely applied. However, as to an uncertainty of the system dynamics or modeling error, the performance of the method is unreliable. In order to overcome this problem in this paper, a new finite impulse response (FIR) filter based learning algorithm is proposed to train radial basis function neural networks (RBFN) for nonlinear function approximation. Compared to the EKF training method, the proposed FIR filter training method is more robust to those environmental conditions. Furthermore , the number of centers will be considered since it affects the performance of approximation.
Keywords: Extended kalmin filter (EKF), classification problem, radial basis function networks (RBFN), finite impulse response (FIR)filter.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2399462 RANFIS : Rough Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
Authors: Sandeep Chandana, Rene V. Mayorga
Abstract:
The paper presents a new hybridization methodology involving Neural, Fuzzy and Rough Computing. A Rough Sets based approximation technique has been proposed based on a certain Neuro – Fuzzy architecture. A New Rough Neuron composition consisting of a combination of a Lower Bound neuron and a Boundary neuron has also been described. The conventional convergence of error in back propagation has been given away for a new framework based on 'Output Excitation Factor' and an inverse input transfer function. The paper also presents a brief comparison of performances, of the existing Rough Neural Networks and ANFIS architecture against the proposed methodology. It can be observed that the rough approximation based neuro-fuzzy architecture is superior to its counterparts.
Keywords: Boundary neuron, neuro-fuzzy, output excitation factor, RANFIS, rough approximation, rough neural computing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1704461 Health Risk Assessment for Sewer Workers using Bayesian Belief Networks
Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Ken Yeh, Cheng-Wu Chen, Han-Hsi Liang
Abstract:
The sanitary sewerage connection rate becomes an important indicator of advanced cities. Following the construction of sanitary sewerages, the maintenance and management systems are required for keeping pipelines and facilities functioning well. These maintenance tasks often require sewer workers to enter the manholes and the pipelines, which are confined spaces short of natural ventilation and full of hazardous substances. Working in sewers could be easily exposed to a risk of adverse health effects. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) as a higher level of noncarcinogenic health risk assessment of sewer workers. On the basis of the epidemiological studies, the actual hospital attendance records and expert experiences, the BBN is capable of capturing the probabilistic relationships between the hazardous substances in sewers and their adverse health effects, and accordingly inferring the morbidity and mortality of the adverse health effects. The provision of the morbidity and mortality rates of the related diseases is more informative and can alleviate the drawbacks of conventional methods.Keywords: Bayesian belief networks, sanitary sewerage, healthrisk assessment, hazard quotient, target organ-specific hazard index.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1706460 A Model to Study the Effect of Na+ ions on Ca2+diffusion under Rapid Buffering Approximation
Authors: Vikas Tewari, K.R. Pardasani
Abstract:
Calcium is very important for communication among the neurons. It is vital in a number of cell processes such as secretion, cell movement, cell differentiation. To reduce the system of reactiondiffusion equations of [Ca2+] into a single equation, two theories have been proposed one is excess buffer approximation (EBA) other is rapid buffer approximation (RBA). The RBA is more realistic than the EBA as it considers both the mobile and stationary endogenous buffers. It is valid near the mouth of the channel. In this work we have studied the effects of different types of buffers on calcium diffusion under RBA. The novel thing studied is the effect of sodium ions on calcium diffusion. The model has been made realistic by considering factors such as variable [Ca2+], [Na+] sources, sodium-calcium exchange protein(NCX), Sarcolemmal Calcium ATPase pump. The proposed mathematical leads to a system of partial differential equations which has been solved numerically to study the relationships between different parameters such as buffer concentration, buffer disassociation rate, calcium permeability. We have used Forward Time Centred Space (FTCS) approach to solve the system of partial differential equations.Keywords: rapid buffer approximation, sodium-calcium exchangeprotein, Sarcolemmal Calcium ATPase pump, buffer disassociationrate, forward time centred space.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1520