Search results for: Five year plan
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1236

Search results for: Five year plan

1146 A Machine Learning Based Framework for Education Levelling in Multicultural Countries: UAE as a Case Study

Authors: Shatha Ghareeb, Rawaa Al-Jumeily, Thar Baker

Abstract:

In Abu Dhabi, there are many different education curriculums where sector of private schools and quality assurance is supervising many private schools in Abu Dhabi for many nationalities. As there are many different education curriculums in Abu Dhabi to meet expats’ needs, there are different requirements for registration and success. In addition, there are different age groups for starting education in each curriculum. In fact, each curriculum has a different number of years, assessment techniques, reassessment rules, and exam boards. Currently, students that transfer curriculums are not being placed in the right year group due to different start and end dates of each academic year and their date of birth for each year group is different for each curriculum and as a result, we find students that are either younger or older for that year group which therefore creates gaps in their learning and performance. In addition, there is not a way of storing student data throughout their academic journey so that schools can track the student learning process. In this paper, we propose to develop a computational framework applicable in multicultural countries such as UAE in which multi-education systems are implemented. The ultimate goal is to use cloud and fog computing technology integrated with Artificial Intelligence techniques of Machine Learning to aid in a smooth transition when assigning students to their year groups, and provide leveling and differentiation information of students who relocate from a particular education curriculum to another, whilst also having the ability to store and access student data from anywhere throughout their academic journey.

Keywords: Admissions, algorithms, cloud computing, differentiation, fog computing, leveling, machine learning.

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1145 A Study on the Planning Criteria of Block-Unit Redevelopment to Improve Residential Environment - Focused on Redevelopment Project in Seoul -

Authors: Hong-Nam Choi, Hyeong-Wook Song, Sungwan Hong, Hong-Kyu Kim

Abstract:

In Korea, elements that decide the quality of residential environment are not only diverse, but show deviation as well. However, people do not consider these elements and instead, they try to settle the uniformed style of residential environment, which focuses on the construction development of apartment housing and business based plans. Recently, block-unit redevelopment is becoming the standout alternative plan of standardize redevelopment projects, but constructions become inefficient because of indefinite planning criteria.

 In conclusion, the following research is about analyzing and categorizing the development method and legal ground of redevelopment project district and plan determinant and applicable standard; the purpose of this study is to become a basis in compatible analysis of planning standards that will happen in the future.

Keywords: Shape Restrictions, Improvement of Reagulation, Diversity of Residential Environment, Classification of Redevelopment Project, Planning Criteria of Redevelopment, Special Architectural District (SAD).

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1144 Dynamics Simulation Approach in Analyzing Pension Expenditure

Authors: Hasimah Sapiri, Anton Abdulbasah Kamil, Razman Mat Tahar, Hanafi Tumin

Abstract:

Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.

Keywords: Demographic and Salary risk, Pension Expenditure, Public Policy, System Dynamics.

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1143 A Memetic Algorithm for an Energy-Costs-Aware Flexible Job-Shop Scheduling Problem

Authors: Christian Böning, Henrik Prinzhorn, Eric C. Hund, Malte Stonis

Abstract:

In this article, the flexible job-shop scheduling problem is extended by consideration of energy costs which arise owing to the power peak, and further decision variables such as work in process and throughput time are incorporated into the objective function. This enables a production plan to be simultaneously optimized in respect of the real arising energy and logistics costs. The energy-costs-aware flexible job-shop scheduling problem (EFJSP) which arises is described mathematically, and a memetic algorithm (MA) is presented as a solution. In the MA, the evolutionary process is supplemented with a local search. Furthermore, repair procedures are used in order to rectify any infeasible solutions that have arisen in the evolutionary process. The potential for lowering the real arising costs of a production plan through consideration of energy consumption levels is highlighted.

Keywords: Energy costs, flexible job-shop scheduling, memetic algorithm, power peak.

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1142 Solar Radiation Studies for Dubai and Sharjah, UAE

Authors: Muhammed A. Ahmed, Sidra A. Shaikh

Abstract:

Global Solar Radiation (H) for Dubai and Sharjah, Latitude 25.25oN, Longitude 55oE and 25.29oN, Longitude 55oE respectively have been studied using sunshine hour data (n) of the areas using various methods. These calculated global solar radiation values are then compared to the measured values presented by NASA. Furthermore, the extraterrestrial (H0), diffuse (Hd) and beam radiation (Hb) are also calculated. The diffuse radiation is calculated using methods proposed by Page and Liu and Jordan (L-J). Diffuse Radiation from the Page method is higher than the L-J method. Moreover, the clearness index (KT) signifies a clear sky almost all year round. Rainy days are hardly a few in a year and limited in the months December to March. The temperature remains between 25oC in winter to 44oC in summer and is desirable for thermal applications of solar energy. From the estimated results, it appears that solar radiation can be utilized very efficiently throughout the year for photovoltaic and thermal applications.

Keywords: Dubai, Sharjah, Global Solar Radiation, Diffuse Radiation

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1141 A Statistical Prediction of Likely Distress in Nigeria Banking Sector Using a Neural Network Approach

Authors: D. A. Farinde

Abstract:

One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.

Keywords: Bank, Bankruptcy, Financial Ratios, Neural Network, Multilayer Perceptron, Predictive Model

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1140 Analysis of Initial Entry-Level Technology Course Impacts on STEM Major Selection

Authors: Ethan Shafer, Timothy Graziano, Jay Fisher

Abstract:

This research seeks to answer whether first-year courses at institutions of higher learning can impact STEM major selection. Unlike many universities, an entry-level technology course (often referred to as CS0) is required for all United States Military Academy (USMA) students–regardless of major–in their first year of attendance. Students at the Academy choose their major at the end of their first year of studies. Through student responses to a multi-semester survey, this paper identifies a number of factors that potentially influence STEM major selection. Student demographic data, pre-existing exposure and access to technology, perceptions of STEM subjects, and initial desire for a STEM major are captured before and after taking a CS0 course. An analysis of factors that contribute to student perception of STEM and major selection are presented. This work provides recommendations and suggestions for institutions currently providing or looking to provide CS0-like courses to their students.

Keywords: STEM major, STEM, pedagogy, digital literacy.

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1139 Waste Management in a Hot Laboratory of Japan Atomic Energy Agency – 1: Overview and Activities in Chemical Processing Facility

Authors: Kazunori Nomura, Hiromichi Ogi, Masaumi Nakahara, Sou Watanabe, Atsuhiro Shibata

Abstract:

Chemical Processing Facility of Japan Atomic Energy Agency is a basic research field for advanced back-end technology developments with using actual high-level radioactive materials such as irradiated fuels from the fast reactor, high-level liquid waste from reprocessing plant. In the nature of a research facility, various kinds of chemical reagents have been offered for fundamental tests. Most of them were treated properly and stored in the liquid waste vessel equipped in the facility, but some were not treated and remained at the experimental space as a kind of legacy waste. It is required to treat the waste in safety. On the other hand, we formulated the Medium- and Long-Term Management Plan of Japan Atomic Energy Agency Facilities. This comprehensive plan considers Chemical Processing Facility as one of the facilities to be decommissioned. Even if the plan is executed, treatment of the “legacy” waste beforehand must be a necessary step for decommissioning operation. Under this circumstance, we launched a collaborative research project called the STRAD project, which stands for Systematic Treatment of Radioactive liquid waste for Decommissioning, in order to develop the treatment processes for wastes of the nuclear research facility. In this project, decomposition methods of chemicals causing a troublesome phenomenon such as corrosion and explosion have been developed and there is a prospect of their decomposition in the facility by simple method. And solidification of aqueous or organic liquid wastes after the decomposition has been studied by adding cement or coagulants. Furthermore, we treated experimental tools of various materials with making an effort to stabilize and to compact them before the package into the waste container. It is expected to decrease the number of transportation of the solid waste and widen the operation space. Some achievements of these studies will be shown in this paper. The project is expected to contribute beneficial waste management outcome that can be shared world widely.

Keywords: Chemical Processing Facility, medium- and long-term management plan of JAEA Facilities, STRAD project, treatment of radioactive waste.

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1138 Emergency Health Management at a South African University

Authors: R. Tandlich, S. Hoossein, K. A. Tagwira, M. M. Marais, T. A. Ludwig, R. P. Chidziva, M. N. Munodawafa, W. M. Wrench

Abstract:

Response to the public health-related emergencies is analysed here for a rural university in South Africa. The structure of the designated emergency plan covers all the phases of the disaster management cycle. The plan contains elements of the vulnerability model and the technocratic model of emergency management. The response structures are vertically and horizontally integrated, while the planning contains elements of scenario-based and functional planning. The available number of medical professionals at the Rhodes University, along with the medical insurance rates, makes the staff and students potentially more medically vulnerable than the South African population. The main improvements of the emergency management are required in the tornado response and the information dissemination during health emergencies. The latter should involve the increased use of social media and e-mails, following the Taylor model of communication. Infrastructure must be improved in the telecommunication sector in the face of unpredictable electricity outages.

Keywords: Public health, Rural university, Taylor model of communication.

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1137 The Sequential Estimation of the Seismoacoustic Source Energy in C-OTDR Monitoring Systems

Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev, Dmitry V. Egorov

Abstract:

The practical efficient approach is suggested for estimation of the seismoacoustic sources energy in C-OTDR monitoring systems. This approach is represents the sequential plan for confidence estimation both the seismoacoustic sources energy, as well the absorption coefficient of the soil. The sequential plan delivers the non-asymptotic guaranteed accuracy of obtained estimates in the form of non-asymptotic confidence regions with prescribed sizes. These confidence regions are valid for a finite sample size when the distributions of the observations are unknown. Thus, suggested estimates are non-asymptotic and nonparametric, and also these estimates guarantee the prescribed estimation accuracy in form of prior prescribed size of confidence regions, and prescribed confidence coefficient value.

Keywords: C-OTDR-system, guaranteed estimates, nonparametric estimation, sequential confidence estimation, multichannel monitoring systems.

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1136 Study of the Effectiveness of Outrigger System for High-Rise Composite Buildings for Cyclonic Region

Authors: S. Fawzia, A. Nasir, T. Fatima

Abstract:

The demands of taller structures are becoming imperative almost everywhere in the world in addition to the challenges of material and labor cost, project time line etc. This paper conducted a study keeping in view the challenging nature of high-rise construction with no generic rules for deflection minimizations and frequency control. The effects of cyclonic wind and provision of outriggers on 28-storey, 42-storey and 57-storey are examined in this paper and certain conclusions are made which would pave way for researchers to conduct further study in this particular area of civil engineering. The results show that plan dimensions have vital impacts on structural heights. Increase of height while keeping the plan dimensions same, leads to the reduction in the lateral rigidity. To achieve required stiffness increase of bracings sizes as well as introduction of additional lateral resisting system such as belt truss and outriggers is required.

Keywords: Cyclonic wind regions, dynamic wind loads, Alongwind effects, Crosswind response, Fundamental frequency of vibration.

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1135 Profile Analysis and Experiences on the Tourism of Jalapão State Park, Tocantins, Brazil

Authors: Veruska C. Dutra, Mary L. G. S. Senna, Felipe S. Spindler

Abstract:

The State Park Jalapão - PEJ proved to be one of the protected areas that has attracted tourists from all over the world with its unique scenic landscapes. Although the region already has a considerable tourist flow, to our knowledge there is a lack of continuity of studies in the region capable of drawing a plan of activities, such as the profile of the tourist and analysis of their experiences in the region, carried out from 2006-2007. Therefore, this study was proposed to know the profile and experiences of tourists visiting the park today, making a connection with the earlier study, in order to generate subsidies to trace improvement actions. We conducted interviews with tourists in the main tourism season 2015. The results show that after eight years of carrying out the first study, there were no changes, highlighting the lack of a tourism plan for the park.

Keywords: Jalapão, profile tourist, level of satisfaction.

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1134 The Development of the Quality Management Processes for the Building and Environment of the Basic Education Schools

Authors: Suppara Charoenpoom

Abstract:

The objectives of this research was to design and develop a quality management of the school buildings and environment. A quantitative and qualitative mixed research methodology was used. The population sample included 14 directors of primary schools. Two research tools were used. The first research tool included an in-depth interview and questionnaire. The second research tool included the Quality Business Process and Quality Work Procedure, and a Key Performance Indicator of each activity. The statistics included mean and standard deviation. The findings for the development of a quality management process of buildings and environment administration of the basic schools consisted of one quality business process (QBP) and seven quality work processes (QWP). The result from the experts’ evaluation revealed that the process and implementation of quality management of the school buildings and environment has passed the inspection process with consensus. This implies that the process of quality management of the school buildings and environment is suitable for implementation. Moreover, the level of agreement in the feasibility of the implementation of this plan had the mean in the range of 0.64-1.00 which suggests the design of the new plan is acceptable.

Keywords: Process, Building, Environment.

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1133 Evaluation of Coastal Erosion in the Jurisdiction of the Municipalities of Puerto Colombia and Tubará, Atlántico, Colombia in Google Earth Engine with Landsat and Sentinel 2 Images

Authors: Francisco Javier Reyes Salazar, Héctor Mauricio Ramírez

Abstract:

The coastal zones are home to mangrove swamps, coral reefs, and seagrass ecosystems, which are the most biodiverse and fragile on the planet. These areas support a great diversity of marine life; they are also extraordinarily important for humans in the provision of food, water, wood, and other associated goods and services; they also contribute to climate regulation. The lack of an automated model that generates information on the dynamics of changes in coastlines and coastal erosion is identified as a central problem. In this paper, coastlines were determined from 1984 to 2020 on the Google Earth Engine platform from Landsat and Sentinel images. Then, we determined the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) and used Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) v5.0. Starting from the 2020 coastline; the 10-year prediction (Year 2031) was determined with the erosion of 238.32 hectares and an accretion of 181.96 hectares. For the 20-year prediction (Year 2041) will be presented an erosion of 544.04 hectares and an accretion of 133.94 hectares. The erosion and accretion of Playa Muelle in the municipality of Puerto Colombia were established, which will register the highest value of erosion. The coverage that presented the greatest change was that of artificialized territories.

Keywords: Coastline, coastal erosion, MNDWI, Google Earth Engine, Colombia.

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1132 Distributed Architecture of an Autonomous Four Rotor Mini-Rotorcraft based on Multi-Agent System

Authors: H. Ifassiouen, H. Medromi, N. E. Radhy

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the recently implemented approach allowing dynamics systems to plan its actions, taking into account the environment perception changes, and to control their execution when uncertainty and incomplete knowledge are the major characteristics of the situated environment [1],[2],[3],[4]. The control distributed architecture has three modules and the approach is related to hierarchical planning: the plan produced by the planner is further refined at the control layer that in turn supervises its execution by a functional level. We propose a new intelligent distributed architecture constituted by: Multi-Agent subsystem of the sensor, of the interpretation and representation of environment [9], of the dynamic localization and of the action. We tested this distributed architecture with dynamic system in the known environment. The autonomous for Rotor Mini Rotorcraft task is described by the primitive actions. The distributed controlbased on multi-agent system is in charge of achieving each task in the best possible way taking into account the context and sensory feedback.

Keywords: Autonomous four rotors helicopter, Control system, Hierarchical planning, Intelligent Distributed Architecture.

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1131 Integrated Water Management for Lafarge Cement-Jordan

Authors: Azzam Hamaideh, Abbas Al-Omari, Michael Sturm

Abstract:

This study aims at implementing integrated water resources management principles to the Lafarge Cement Jordan at Al-Fuhais plant. This was accomplished by conducting water audits at all water consuming units in the plant. Based on the findings of the water audit, an action plan to improve water use efficiency in the plant was proposed. The main elements of which are installing water saving devices, re-use of the treated wastewater, water harvesting, raising the awareness of the employees, and linking the plant to the water demand management unit at the Ministry of Water and Irrigation.

The analysis showed that by implementing the proposed action plan, it is expected that the industrial water demand can be satisfied from non-conventional resources including treated wastewater and harvested water. As a consequence, fresh water can be used to increase the supply to Al-Fuhais city which is expected to reflect positively on the relationship between the factory and the city. 

Keywords: Integrated water resources management, non-conventional water resources, water awareness, water demand management, water harvesting, water saving devices.

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1130 State of the Art: A Study on Fall Detection

Authors: Goh Yongli, Ooi Shih Yin, Pang Ying Han

Abstract:

Unintentional falls are rife throughout the ages and have been the common factor of serious or critical injuries especially for the elderly society. Fortunately, owing to the recent rapid advancement in technology, fall detection system is made possible, enabling detection of falling events for the elderly, monitoring the patient and consequently provides emergency support in the event of falling. This paper presents a review of 3 main categories of fall detection techniques, ranging from year 2005 to year 2010. This paper will be focusing on discussing the techniques alongside with summary and conclusion for them.

Keywords: State of the art, fall detection, wearable devices, ambient analyser, motion detection.

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1129 An Integrated Approach to Child Care Earthquake Preparedness through “Telemachus” Project

Authors: A. Kourou, S. Kyriakopoulos, N. Anyfanti

Abstract:

A lot of children under the age of five spend their daytime hours away from their home, in a kindergarten. Caring for children is a serious subject, and their safety in case of earthquake is the first priority. Being aware of earthquakes helps to prioritize the needs and take the appropriate actions to limit the effects. Earthquakes occurring anywhere at any time require emergency planning. Earthquake planning is a cooperative effort and childcare providers have unique roles and responsibilities. Greece has high seismicity and Ionian Islands Region has the highest seismic activity of the country. Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (EPPO) is a national organization in Greece. The mission of EPPO is the seismic risk reduction by designing an earthquake management program of mitigation and preparedness. Among other actions EPPO has analyzed the needs and requirements of kindergartens on earthquake protection issues and has designed specific activities to familiarize the day care centers staff being prepared for earthquakes.  This research presents the results of a survey that detects the level of earthquake preparedness of kindergartens in all over the country and Ionian Islands too. A closed-form questionnaire of 20 main questions was developed for the survey in order to detect the aspects of participants concerning the earthquake preparedness actions at individual, family and day care environment level. 2668 questionnaires were gathered from March 2014 to May 2019, and analyzed by EPPO’s Department of Education. Moreover, this paper presents the EPPO’s educational activities targeted to the Ionian Islands Region that implemented in the framework of “Telemachus” Project. To provide safe environment for children to learn, and staff to work is the foremost goal of any State, community and kindergarten. This project is funded under the Priority Axis “Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development” of Operational Plan “Ionian Islands 2014-2020”. It is increasingly accepted that emergency preparedness should be thought of as an ongoing process rather than a one-time activity. Creating an earthquake safe daycare environment that facilitates learning is a challenging task. Training, drills, and update of emergency plan should take place throughout the year at kindergartens to identify any gaps and to ensure the emergency procedures. EPPO will continue to work closely with regional and local authorities to actively address the needs of children and kindergartens before, during and after earthquakes.

Keywords: Child care centers, education on earthquake issues, emergency planning, Ionian Islands Region of Greece, kindergartens, preparedness.

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1128 A Robotic “Puppet Master” Application to ASD Therapeutic Support

Authors: Sophie Sakka, Rénald Gaboriau

Abstract:

This paper describes a preliminary work aimed at setting a therapeutic support for autistic teenagers using three humanoid robots NAO shared by ASD (Autism Spectrum Disorder) subjects. The studied population had attended successfully a first year program, and were observed with a second year program using the robots. This paper focuses on the content and the effects of the second year program. The approach is based on a master puppet concept: the subjects program the robots, and use them as an extension for communication. Twenty sessions were organized, alternating ten preparatory sessions and ten robotics programming sessions. During the preparatory sessions, the subjects write a story to be played by the robots. During the robot programming sessions, the subjects program the motions to be realized to make the robot tell the story. The program was concluded by a public performance. The experiment involves five ASD teenagers aged 12-15, who had all attended the first year robotics training. As a result, a progress in voluntary and organized communication skills of the five subjects was observed, leading to improvements in social organization, focus, voluntary communication, programming, reading and writing abilities. The changes observed in the subjects general behavior took place in a short time, and could be observed from one robotics session to the next one. The approach allowed the subjects to draw the limits of their body with respect to the environment, and therefore helped them confronting the world with less anxiety.

Keywords: Autism spectrum disorder, robot, therapeutic support, rob’autism.

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1127 A Case Study of Applying Virtual Prototyping in Construction

Authors: Stephen C. W. Kong

Abstract:

The use of 3D computer-aided design (CAD) models to support construction project planning has been increasing in the previous year. 3D CAD models reveal more planning ideas by visually showing the construction site environment in different stages of the construction process. Using 3D CAD models together with scheduling software to prepare construction plan can identify errors in process sequence and spatial arrangement, which is vital to the success of a construction project. A number of 4D (3D plus time) CAD tools has been developed and utilized in different construction projects due to the awareness of their importance. Virtual prototyping extends the idea of 4D CAD by integrating more features for simulating real construction process. Virtual prototyping originates from the manufacturing industry where production of products such as cars and airplanes are virtually simulated in computer before they are built in the factory. Virtual prototyping integrates 3D CAD, simulation engine, analysis tools (like structural analysis and collision detection), and knowledgebase to streamline the whole product design and production process. In this paper, we present the application of a virtual prototyping software which has been used in a few construction projects in Hong Kong to support construction project planning. Specifically, the paper presents an implementation of virtual prototyping in a residential building project in Hong Kong. The applicability, difficulties and benefits of construction virtual prototyping are examined based on this project.

Keywords: construction project planning, prefabrication, simulation, virtual prototyping.

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1126 Sustainable Development and Kish Island Environment Protection, using Wind Energy

Authors: Amir Gandomkar

Abstract:

Kish Islands in South of Iran is located in coastal water near Hormozgan Province. Based on the wind 3-hour statistics in Kish station, the mean annual windspeed in this Island is 8.6 knot (4.3 m/s). The maximum windspeed recorded in this stations 47 knot (23.5 m/s). In 45.7 percent of recorded times, windspeed has been Zero or less than 8 knot which is not suitable to use the wind energy. But in 54.3 percent of recorded times, windspeed has been more than 8 knot and suitable to use wind energy to run turbines. In 40.2 percent of recorded times, windspeed has been between 8 to 16 knot, in 13 percent of times between 16 to 24 knot and in 1 percent of times it has been higher than 24 knot. In this station, the direction of winds higher than 8 is west and wind direction in Kish station is stable in most times of the year.With regard to high – speed and stable direction winds during the year and also shallow coasts near this is land, it is possible to build offshore wind farms near Kish Island and utilize wind energy produce the electricity required in this Island during most of the year.

Keywords: Kish Island, Wind energy, Offshore wind farm, Windspeed, Wind direction

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1125 Stock Price Forecast by Using Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Authors: Ebrahim Abbasi, Amir Abouec

Abstract:

In this research, the researchers have managed to design a model to investigate the current trend of stock price of the "IRAN KHODRO corporation" at Tehran Stock Exchange by utilizing an Adaptive Neuro - Fuzzy Inference system. For the Longterm Period, a Neuro-Fuzzy with two Triangular membership functions and four independent Variables including trade volume, Dividend Per Share (DPS), Price to Earning Ratio (P/E), and also closing Price and Stock Price fluctuation as an dependent variable are selected as an optimal model. For the short-term Period, a neureo – fuzzy model with two triangular membership functions for the first quarter of a year, two trapezoidal membership functions for the Second quarter of a year, two Gaussian combination membership functions for the third quarter of a year and two trapezoidal membership functions for the fourth quarter of a year were selected as an optimal model for the stock price forecasting. In addition, three independent variables including trade volume, price to earning ratio, closing Stock Price and a dependent variable of stock price fluctuation were selected as an optimal model. The findings of the research demonstrate that the trend of stock price could be forecasted with the lower level of error.

Keywords: Stock Price forecast, membership functions, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, trade volume, P/E, DPS.

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1124 The Trend of Injuries in Building Fire in Tehran from 2002 to 2012

Authors: Mohammadreza Ashouri, Majid Bayatian

Abstract:

Analysis of fire data is a way for the implementation of any plan to improve the level of safety in cities. Such an analysis is able to reveal signs of changes in a given period and can be used as a measure of safety. The information of about 66,341 fires (from 2002 to 2012) released by Tehran Safety Services and Fire-Fighting Organization and data on the population and the number of households provided by Tehran Municipality and the Statistical Yearbook of Iran were extracted. Using the data, the fire changes, the rate of injuries, and mortality rate were determined and analyzed. The rate of injuries and mortality rate of fires per one million population of Tehran were 59.58% and 86.12%, respectively. During the study period, the number of fires and fire stations increased by 104.38% and 102.63%, respectively. Most fires (9.21%) happened in the 4th District of Tehran. The results showed that the recorded fire data have not been systematically planned for fire prevention since one of the ways to reduce injuries caused by fires is to develop a systematic plan for necessary actions in emergency situations. To determine a reliable source for fire prevention, the stages, definitions of working processes and the cause and effect chains should be considered. Therefore, a comprehensive statistical system should be developed for reported and recorded fire data.

Keywords: Fire statistics, fire analysis, accident prevention, Tehran.

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1123 Using Reuse Water for Irrigation Green space of Naein City

Authors: Nasri M., Soleimani A.

Abstract:

Since water resources of desert Naein City are very limited, a approach which saves water resources and meanwhile meets the needs of the greenspace for water is to use city-s sewage wastewater. Proper treatment of Naein-s sewage up to the standards required for green space uses may solve some of the problems of green space development of the city. The present paper closely examines available statistics and information associated with city-s sewage system, and determines complementary stages of sewage treatment facilities of the city. In the present paper, population, per capita water use, and required discharge for various greenspace pieces including different plants are calculated. Moreover, in order to facilitate the application of water resources, a Crude water distribution network apart from drinking water distribution network is designed, and a plan for mixing municipal wells- water with sewage wastewater in proposed mixing tanks is suggested. Hence, following greenspace irrigation reform and complementary plan, per capita greenspace of the city will be increased from current amount of 13.2 square meters to 32 square meters.

Keywords: Sewage Treatment Facility, Wastewater, Greenspace, Distribution Network, Naein City

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1122 Exploiting Machine Learning Techniques for the Enhancement of Acceptance Sampling

Authors: Aikaterini Fountoulaki, Nikos Karacapilidis, Manolis Manatakis

Abstract:

This paper proposes an innovative methodology for Acceptance Sampling by Variables, which is a particular category of Statistical Quality Control dealing with the assurance of products quality. Our contribution lies in the exploitation of machine learning techniques to address the complexity and remedy the drawbacks of existing approaches. More specifically, the proposed methodology exploits Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to aid decision making about the acceptance or rejection of an inspected sample. For any type of inspection, ANNs are trained by data from corresponding tables of a standard-s sampling plan schemes. Once trained, ANNs can give closed-form solutions for any acceptance quality level and sample size, thus leading to an automation of the reading of the sampling plan tables, without any need of compromise with the values of the specific standard chosen each time. The proposed methodology provides enough flexibility to quality control engineers during the inspection of their samples, allowing the consideration of specific needs, while it also reduces the time and the cost required for these inspections. Its applicability and advantages are demonstrated through two numerical examples.

Keywords: Acceptance Sampling, Neural Networks, Statistical Quality Control.

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1121 Assessment of the Adaptive Pushover Analysis Using Displacement-based Loading in Prediction the Seismic Behaviour of the Unsymmetric-Plan Buildings

Authors: M.O. Makhmalbaf, F. Mohajeri Nav, M. Zabihi Samani

Abstract:

The recent drive for use of performance-based methodologies in design and assessment of structures in seismic areas has significantly increased the demand for the development of reliable nonlinear inelastic static pushover analysis tools. As a result, the adaptive pushover methods have been developed during the last decade, which unlike their conventional pushover counterparts, feature the ability to account for the effect that higher modes of vibration and progressive stiffness degradation might have on the distribution of seismic storey forces. Even in advanced pushover methods, little attention has been paid to the Unsymmetric structures. This study evaluates the seismic demands for three dimensional Unsymmetric-Plan buildings determined by the Displacement-based Adaptive Pushover (DAP) analysis, which has been introduced by Antoniou and Pinho [2004]. The capability of DAP procedure in capturing the torsional effects due to the irregularities of the structures, is investigated by comparing its estimates to the exact results, obtained from Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA). Also the capability of the procedure in prediction the seismic behaviour of the structure is discussed.

Keywords: Nonlinear static procedures, Unsymmetric-PlanBuildings, Torsional effects, IDA.

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1120 Two Degree of Freedom Spherical Mechanism Design for Exact Sun Tracking

Authors: Osman Acar

Abstract:

Sun tracking systems are the systems following the sun ray by a right angle or by predetermined certain angle. In this study, we used theoretical trajectory of sun for latitude of central Anatolia in Turkey. A two degree of freedom spherical mechanism was designed to have a large workspace able to follow the sun's theoretical motion by the right angle during the whole year. An inverse kinematic analysis was generated to find the positions of mechanism links for the predicted trajectory. Force and torque analysis were shown for the first day of the year.

Keywords: Sun tracking, theoretical sun trajectory, spherical mechanism, inverse kinematic analysis.

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1119 Dialogue Journals as an EFL Learning Strategy in the Preparatory Year Program: Learners' Attitudes and Perceptions

Authors: Asma Alyahya

Abstract:

This study attempts to elicit the perceptions and attitudes of EFL learners of the Preparatory Year Program at KSU towards dialogue journal writing as an EFL learning strategy. The descriptive research design used incorporated both qualitative and quantitative instruments to accomplish the objectives of the study. A learners’ attitude questionnaire and follow-up interviewswith learners from a randomly selected representative sample of the participants were employed. The participants were 55 female Saudi university students in the Preparatory Year Program at King Saud University. The analysis of the results indicated that the PYP learners had highly positive attitudes towards dialogue journal writing in their EFL classes and positive perceptions of the benefits of the use of dialogue journal writing as an EFL learning strategy. The results also revealed that dialogue journals are considered an effective EFL learning strategy since they fulfill various needs for both learners and instructors. Interestingly, the analysis of the results also revealed that Saudi university level students tend to write about personal topics in their dialogue journals more than academic ones.

Keywords: Dialogue journals, EFL, learning strategy, writing.

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1118 Energy Efficiency and Renewable for Power System in Macedonia

Authors: Tomislav Stambolic, Anton Causevski

Abstract:

The deficit of power supply in Macedonia is almost 30% or reached up to 3000 GWh in a year. The existing thermal and hydro power plants are not enough to cover the power and energy, so the import increases every year. Therefore, in order to have more domestic energy supply, the new trends in renewable and energy efficiency should be implemented in power sector. The paper gives some perspectives for development of the power system in Macedonia, taking into account the growth of electricity demand and in the same time with implementation of renewable and energy efficiency. The development of power system is made for the period up to 2030 with the period of every 5 years.

Keywords: Energy, Power System, Renewable, Efficiency

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1117 An Approach for Data Analysis, Evaluation and Correction: A Case Study from Man-Made River Project in Libya

Authors: Nasser M. Amaitik, Nabil A. Alfagi

Abstract:

The world-s largest Pre-stressed Concrete Cylinder Pipe (PCCP) water supply project had a series of pipe failures which occurred between 1999 and 2001. This has led the Man-Made River Authority (MMRA), the authority in charge of the implementation and operation of the project, to setup a rehabilitation plan for the conveyance system while maintaining the uninterrupted flow of water to consumers. At the same time, MMRA recognized the need for a long term management tool that would facilitate repair and maintenance decisions and enable taking the appropriate preventive measures through continuous monitoring and estimation of the remaining life of each pipe. This management tool is known as the Pipe Risk Management System (PRMS) and now in operation at MMRA. Both the rehabilitation plan and the PRMS require the availability of complete and accurate pipe construction and manufacturing data This paper describes a systematic approach of data collection, analysis, evaluation and correction for the construction and manufacturing data files of phase I pipes which are the platform for the PRMS database and any other related decision support system.

Keywords: Asbuilt, History, IMD, MMRA, PDBMS & PRMS

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