Search results for: Structural model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8263

Search results for: Structural model

7153 Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Financial Trading using Intraday Seasonality Observation Model

Authors: A. Kablan

Abstract:

The prediction of financial time series is a very complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed. Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input and has increased the overall performance of the system.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference system, High Frequency Trading, Intraday Seasonality Observation Model.

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7152 An Examination of the Factors Affecting the Adoption of Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning Systems in Egyptian Companies

Authors: Mayar A. Omar, Ismail Gomaa, Heba Badawy, Hosam Moubarak

Abstract:

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) is an integrated system that helps companies in managing their resources. There are two types of ERP systems, the traditional ERP systems, and the cloud ERP systems. Cloud ERP systems were introduced after the development of cloud computing technology. This research aims to identify the factors that affect the adoption of cloud ERP in Egyptian companies. Moreover, the aim of our study is to provide guidance to Egyptian companies in the cloud ERP adoption decision and to participate in increasing the number of the cloud ERP studies that are conducted in the Middle East and in developing countries. There are many factors influencing the adoption of cloud ERP in Egyptian organizations which are discussed and explained in the research. Those factors are examined through combining the Diffusion of Innovation theory (DOI) and technology-organization-environment framework (TOE). Data were collected through a survey that was developed using constructs from the existing studies of cloud computing and cloud ERP technologies and was then modified to fit our research. The analysis of the data was based on Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) using Smart PLS software that was used for the empirical analysis of the research model.

Keywords: cloud computing, cloud ERP systems, DOI, Egypt, SEM, TOE

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7151 Investigating the Effects of Thermal and Surface Energy on the Two-Dimensional Flow Characteristics of Oil in Water Mixture between Two Parallel Plates: A Lattice Boltzmann Method Study

Authors: W. Hasan, H. Farhat

Abstract:

A hybrid quasi-steady thermal lattice Boltzmann model was used to study the combined effects of temperature and contact angle on the movement of slugs and droplets of oil in water (O/W) system flowing between two parallel plates. The model static contact angle due to the deposition of the O/W droplet on a flat surface with simulated hydrophilic characteristic at different fluid temperatures, matched very well the proposed theoretical calculation. Furthermore, the model was used to simulate the dynamic behavior of droplets and slugs deposited on the domain’s upper and lower surfaces, while subjected to parabolic flow conditions. The model accurately simulated the contact angle hysteresis for the dynamic droplets cases. It was also shown that at elevated temperatures the required power to transport the mixture diminished remarkably.

Keywords: Lattice Boltzmann method, Gunstensen model, thermal, contact angle, high viscosity ratio.

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7150 The Current Practices of Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Panels Subjected to Blast Loading

Authors: Palak J. Shukla, Atul K. Desai, Chentankumar D. Modhera

Abstract:

For any country in the world, it has become a priority to protect the critical infrastructure from looming risks of terrorism. In any infrastructure system, the structural elements like lower floors, exterior columns, walls etc. are key elements which are the most susceptible to damage due to blast load. The present study revisits the state of art review of the design and analysis of reinforced concrete panels subjected to blast loading. Various aspects in association with blast loading on structure, i.e. estimation of blast load, experimental works carried out previously, the numerical simulation tools, various material models, etc. are considered for exploring the current practices adopted worldwide. Discussion on various parametric studies to investigate the effect of reinforcement ratios, thickness of slab, different charge weight and standoff distance is also made. It was observed that for the simulation of blast load, CONWEP blast function or equivalent numerical equations were successfully employed by many researchers. The study of literature indicates that the researches were carried out using experimental works and numerical simulation using well known generalized finite element methods, i.e. LS-DYNA, ABAQUS, AUTODYN. Many researchers recommended to use concrete damage model to represent concrete and plastic kinematic material model to represent steel under action of blast loads for most of the numerical simulations. Most of the studies reveal that the increase reinforcement ratio, thickness of slab, standoff distance was resulted in better blast resistance performance of reinforced concrete panel. The study summarizes the various research results and appends the present state of knowledge for the structures exposed to blast loading.

Keywords: Blast phenomenon, experimental methods, material models, numerical methods.

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7149 Prioritization of Customer Order Selection Factors by Utilizing Conjoint Analysis: A Case Study for a Structural Steel Firm

Authors: Burcu Akyildiz, Cigdem Kadaifci, Y. Ilker Topcu, Burc Ulengin

Abstract:

In today’s business environment, companies should  make strategic decisions to gain sustainable competitive advantage.  Order selection is a crucial issue among these decisions especially for  steel production industry. When the companies allocate a high  proportion of their design and production capacities to their ongoing  projects, determining which customer order should be chosen among  the potential orders without exceeding the remaining capacity is the  major critical problem. In this study, it is aimed to identify and  prioritize the evaluation factors for the customer order selection  problem. Conjoint Analysis is used to examine the importance level  of each factor which is determined as the potential profit rate per unit  of time, the compatibility of potential order with available capacity,  the level of potential future order with higher profit, customer credit  of future business opportunity, and the negotiability level of  production schedule for the order.

 

Keywords: Conjoint analysis, order prioritization, profit management, structural steel firm.

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7148 Properties and Approximation Distribution Reductions in Multigranulation Rough Set Model

Authors: Properties, Approximation Distribution Reductions in Multigranulation Rough Set Model

Abstract:

Some properties of approximation sets are studied in multi-granulation optimist model in rough set theory using maximal compatible classes. The relationships between or among lower and upper approximations in single and multiple granulation are compared and discussed. Through designing Boolean functions and discernibility matrices in incomplete information systems, the lower and upper approximation sets and reduction in multi-granulation environments can be found. By using examples, the correctness of computation approach is consolidated. The related conclusions obtained are suitable for further investigating in multiple granulation RSM.

Keywords: Incomplete information system, maximal compatible class, multi-granulation rough set model, reduction.

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7147 A Study on Performance-Based Design Analysis for Vertical Extension of Apartment Units

Authors: Minsun Kim, Ki-Sun Choi, Hyun-Jee Lee, Young-Chan You

Abstract:

There is no reinforcement example for the renovation of the vertical and horizontal extension to existing building structures which is a shear wall type in apartment units in Korea. Among these existing structures, the structures which are shear wall type are rare overseas, while Korea has many shear wall apartment units. Recently, in Korea, a few researchers are trying to confirm the possibility of the vertical extension in existing building with shear walls. This study evaluates the possibility of the renovation by applying performance-based seismic design to existing buildings with shear walls in the analysis phase of the structure. In addition, force-based seismic design, used by general structural engineers in Korea, is carried out to compare the amount of reinforcement of walls, which is a main component of wall structure. As a result, we suggest that performance-based design obtains more economical advantages than force-based seismic design.

Keywords: Vertical extension, performance-based design, renovation, shear wall structure, structural analysis.

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7146 A Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization-Nelder- Mead Algorithm (PSO-NM) for Nelson-Siegel- Svensson Calibration

Authors: Sofia Ayouche, Rachid Ellaia, Rajae Aboulaich

Abstract:

Today, insurers may use the yield curve as an indicator evaluation of the profit or the performance of their portfolios; therefore, they modeled it by one class of model that has the ability to fit and forecast the future term structure of interest rates. This class of model is the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model. Unfortunately, many authors have reported a lot of difficulties when they want to calibrate the model because the optimization problem is not convex and has multiple local optima. In this context, we implement a hybrid Particle Swarm optimization and Nelder Mead algorithm in order to minimize by least squares method, the difference between the zero-coupon curve and the NSS curve.

Keywords: Optimization, zero-coupon curve, Nelson-Siegel- Svensson, Particle Swarm Optimization, Nelder-Mead Algorithm.

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7145 Evaluation of Low-Reducible Sinter in Blast Furnace Technology by Mathematical Model Developed at Centre ENET, VSB – Technical University of Ostrava

Authors: S. Jursová, P. Pustějovská, S. Brožová, J. Bilík

Abstract:

The paper deals with possibilities of interpretation of iron ore reducibility tests. It presents a mathematical model developed at Centre ENET, VŠB – Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic for an evaluation of metallurgical material of blast furnace feedstock such as iron ore, sinter or pellets. According to the data from the test, the model predicts its usage in blast furnace technology and its effects on production parameters of shaft aggregate. At the beginning, the paper sums up the general concept and experience in mathematical modelling of iron ore reduction. It presents basic equation for the calculation and the main parts of the developed model. In the experimental part, there is an example of usage of the mathematical model. The paper describes the usage of data for some predictive calculation. There are presented material, method of carried test of iron ore reducibility. Then there are graphically interpreted effects of used material on carbon consumption, rate of direct reduction and the whole reduction process.

Keywords: Blast furnace technology, iron ore reduction, mathematical model, prediction of iron ore reduction.

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7144 Performance Analysis Model Development for Mae Moh Coal-Fired Power Plant

Authors: Thitiporn Supasri, Natanee Vorayos, Piriya Thongchiew

Abstract:

Electrification is a complex process and governed by various parameters.  Modeling of power plant’s target efficiency or target heat rate is often formulated and compared with the actual values. This comparison not only implies the performance of the power plant but also reflects the energy losses possibly inherited in some of related equipment and processes. The current modeling of Coal-fired Mae Moh power plant was formulated at the first commissioning. Some of equipments were replaced due to its life time. Relatively outdated for 20 years, the utilization of the model is not accomplished. This work has focused on the development of the performance analysis model of aforementioned power plant according to the most updated and current working conditions. The model is more appropriate and shows accuracy in its analysis.  Losses are detected and measures are introduced such that reduction in energy consumption, related cost, and also environment impacts can be anticipated.

Keywords: Performance analysis model, Power plant modeling, Target heat rate, Target efficiency.

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7143 Using Model to Plan of Strategic Objectives

Authors: Terezie Bartusková, Jitka Baňařová, Zuzana Kusněřová

Abstract:

Importance of strategic planning is unquestionable. However, the practical implementation of a strategic plan faces too many obstacles. The aim of the article is explained the importance of strategic planning and to find how companies in Moravian-Silesian Region deal with strategic planning, and to introduce the model, which helps to set strategic goals in financial indicators area. This model should be part of the whole process of strategic planning and can be use to predict the future values of financial indicators of the company with regard to the factor, which influence these indicators.

Keywords: Planning of Potentials, Planning of Strategic Objectives, Portfolio Planning, Significant Factors, Strategic Planning.

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7142 Automatic Flood Prediction Using Rainfall Runoff Model in Moravian-Silesian Region

Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

Abstract:

Rainfall runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15 – May 18 2014). Prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: Flood, HEC-HMS, Prediction, Rainfall – Runoff.

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7141 Factorial Structure and Psychometric Validation of Ecotourism Experiential Value Construct: Insights from Taman Negara National Park, Malaysia

Authors: Rosidah Musa, Rezian-na Muhammad Kassim

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to disentangle and validate the underlying factorial-structure of Ecotourism Experiential Value (EEV) measurement scale and subsequently investigate its psychometric properties. The analysis was based on a sample of 225 eco-tourists, collected at the vicinity of Taman Negara National Park (TNNP) via interviewer-administered questionnaire. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was performed to determine the factorial structure of EEV. Subsequently, to confirm and validate the factorial structure and assess the psychometric properties of EEV, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was executed. In addition, to establish the nomological validity of EEV a structural model was developed to examine the effect of EEV on Total Eco-tourist Experience Quality (TEEQ). It is unveiled that EEV is a secondorder six-factorial structure construct and it scale has adequately met the psychometric criteria, thus could permit interpretation of results confidently. The findings have important implications for future research directions and management of ecotourism destination.

Keywords: ecotourism, experiential value, experience quality, national park,

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7140 Percolation Transition with Hidden Variables in Complex Networks

Authors: Zhanli Zhang, Wei Chen, Xin Jiang, Lili Ma, Shaoting Tang, Zhiming Zheng

Abstract:

A new class of percolation model in complex networks, in which nodes are characterized by hidden variables reflecting the properties of nodes and the occupied probability of each link is determined by the hidden variables of the end nodes, is studied in this paper. By the mean field theory, the analytical expressions for the phase of percolation transition is deduced. It is determined by the distribution of the hidden variables for the nodes and the occupied probability between pairs of them. Moreover, the analytical expressions obtained are checked by means of numerical simulations on a particular model. Besides, the general model can be applied to describe and control practical diffusion models, such as disease diffusion model, scientists cooperation networks, and so on.

Keywords: complex networks, percolation transition, hidden variable, occupied probability.

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7139 Structural Behaviour of Concrete Energy Piles in Thermal Loadings

Authors: E. H. N. Gashti, M. Malaska, K. Kujala

Abstract:

The thermo-mechanical behaviour of concrete energy pile foundations with different single and double U-tube shapes incorporated was analysed using the Comsol Multi-physics package. For the analysis, a 3D numerical model in real scale of the concrete pile and surrounding soil was simulated regarding actual operation of ground heat exchangers (GHE) and the surrounding ambient temperature. Based on initial ground temperature profile measured in situ, tube inlet temperature was considered to range from 6oC to 0oC (during the contraction process) over a 30-day period. Extra thermal stresses and deformations were calculated during the simulations and differences arising from the use of two different systems (single-tube and double-tube) were analysed. The results revealed no significant difference for extra thermal stresses at the centre of the pile in either system. However, displacements over the pile length were found to be up to 1.5-fold higher in the double-tube system than the singletube system.

Keywords: Concrete Energy Piles, Stresses, Displacements, Thermo-mechanical behaviour, Soil-structure interactions.

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7138 Modeling Sustainable Truck Rental Operations Using Closed-Loop Supply Chain Network

Authors: Khaled S. Abdallah, Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed

Abstract:

Moving industries consume numerous resources and dispose masses of used packaging materials. Proper sorting, recycling and disposing the packaging materials is necessary to avoid a sever pollution disaster. This research paper presents a conceptual model to propose sustainable truck rental operations instead of the regular one. An optimization model was developed to select the locations of truck rental centers, collection sites, maintenance and repair sites, and identify the rental fees to be charged for all routes that maximize the total closed supply chain profits. Fixed costs of vehicle purchasing, costs of constructing collection centers and repair centers, as well as the fixed costs paid to use disposal and recycling centers are considered. Operating costs include the truck maintenance, repair costs as well as the cost of recycling and disposing the packing materials, and the costs of relocating the truck are presented in the model. A mixed integer model is developed followed by a simulation model to examine the factors affecting the operation of the model.

Keywords: Modeling, truck rental, supply chains management, simulation.

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7137 Simulation of the Large Hadrons Collisions Using Monte Carlo Tools

Authors: E. Al Daoud

Abstract:

In many cases, theoretical treatments are available for models for which there is no perfect physical realization. In this situation, the only possible test for an approximate theoretical solution is to compare with data generated from a computer simulation. In this paper, Monte Carlo tools are used to study and compare the elementary particles models. All the experiments are implemented using 10000 events, and the simulated energy is 13 TeV. The mean and the curves of several variables are calculated for each model using MadAnalysis 5. Anomalies in the results can be seen in the muons masses of the minimal supersymmetric standard model and the two Higgs doublet model.

Keywords: Feynman rules, hadrons, Lagrangian, Monte Carlo, simulation.

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7136 DEVS Modeling of Network Vulnerability

Authors: Hee Suk Seo, Tae Kyung Kim

Abstract:

As network components grow larger and more diverse, and as securing them on a host-by-host basis grow more difficult, more sites are turning to a network security model. We concentrate on controlling network access to various hosts and the services they offer, rather than on securing them one by one with a network security model. We present how the policy rules from vulnerabilities stored in SVDB (Simulation based Vulnerability Data Base) are inducted, and how to be used in PBN. In the network security environment, each simulation model is hierarchically designed by DEVS (Discrete EVent system Specification) formalism.

Keywords: SVDB, PBN, DEVS, Network security.

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7135 A new Heuristic Algorithm for the Dynamic Facility Layout Problem with Budget Constraint

Authors: Parham Azimi, Hamid Reza Charmchi

Abstract:

In this research, we have developed a new efficient heuristic algorithm for the dynamic facility layout problem with budget constraint (DFLPB). This heuristic algorithm combines two mathematical programming methods such as discrete event simulation and linear integer programming (IP) to obtain a near optimum solution. In the proposed algorithm, the non-linear model of the DFLP has been changed to a pure integer programming (PIP) model. Then, the optimal solution of the PIP model has been used in a simulation model that has been designed in a similar manner as the DFLP for determining the probability of assigning a facility to a location. After a sufficient number of runs, the simulation model obtains near optimum solutions. Finally, to verify the performance of the algorithm, several test problems have been solved. The results show that the proposed algorithm is more efficient in terms of speed and accuracy than other heuristic algorithms presented in previous works found in the literature.

Keywords: Budget constraint, Dynamic facility layout problem, Integer programming, Simulation

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7134 Cartoon Effect and Ambient Illumination Based Depth Perception Assessment of 3D Video

Authors: G. Nur

Abstract:

Monitored 3-Dimensional (3D) video experience can be utilized as “feedback information” to fine tune the service parameters for providing a better service to the demanding 3D service customers. The 3D video experience which includes both video quality and depth perception is influenced by several contextual and content related factors (e.g., ambient illumination condition, content characteristics, etc) due to the complex nature of the 3D video. Therefore, effective factors on this experience should be utilized while assessing it. In this paper, structural information of the depth map sequences of the 3D video is considered as content related factor effective on the depth perception assessment. Cartoon-like filter is utilized to abstract the significant depth levels in the depth map sequences to determine the structural information. Moreover, subjective experiments are conducted using 3D videos associated with cartoon-like depth map sequences to investigate the effectiveness of ambient illumination condition, which is a contextual factor, on depth perception. Using the knowledge gained through this study, 3D video experience metrics can be developed to deliver better service to the 3D video service users. 

Keywords: 3D Video, Ambient Illumination, Cartoon Effect, Depth Perception.

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7133 Procedure Model for Data-Driven Decision Support Regarding the Integration of Renewable Energies into Industrial Energy Management

Authors: M. Graus, K. Westhoff, X. Xu

Abstract:

The climate change causes a change in all aspects of society. While the expansion of renewable energies proceeds, industry could not be convinced based on general studies about the potential of demand side management to reinforce smart grid considerations in their operational business. In this article, a procedure model for a case-specific data-driven decision support for industrial energy management based on a holistic data analytics approach is presented. The model is executed on the example of the strategic decision problem, to integrate the aspect of renewable energies into industrial energy management. This question is induced due to considerations of changing the electricity contract model from a standard rate to volatile energy prices corresponding to the energy spot market which is increasingly more affected by renewable energies. The procedure model corresponds to a data analytics process consisting on a data model, analysis, simulation and optimization step. This procedure will help to quantify the potentials of sustainable production concepts based on the data from a factory. The model is validated with data from a printer in analogy to a simple production machine. The overall goal is to establish smart grid principles for industry via the transformation from knowledge-driven to data-driven decisions within manufacturing companies.

Keywords: Data analytics, green production, industrial energy management, optimization, renewable energies, simulation.

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7132 Normalizing Logarithms of Realized Volatility in an ARFIMA Model

Authors: G. L. C. Yap

Abstract:

Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.

Keywords: Long-memory, Gaussian process, Whittle estimator, normalization, volatility, value-at-risk.

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7131 Upsetting of Tri-Metallic St-Cu-Al and St-Cu60Zn-Al Cylindrical Billets

Authors: Isik Cetintav, Cenk Misirli, Yilmaz Can

Abstract:

This work investigates upsetting of the tri-metallic cylindrical billets both experimentally and analytically with a reduction ratio 30%. Steel, brass, and copper are used for the outer and outmost rings and aluminum for the inner core. Two different models have been designed to show material flow and the cavity took place over the two interfaces during forming after this reduction ratio. Each model has an outmost ring material as steel. Model 1 has an outer ring between the outmost ring and the solid core material as copper and Model 2 has a material as brass. Solid core is aluminum for each model. Billets were upset in press machine by using parallel flat dies. Upsetting load was recorded and compared for models and single billets. To extend the tests and compare with experimental procedure to a wider range of inner core and outer ring geometries, finite element model was performed. ABAQUS software was used for the simulations. The aim is to show how contact between outmost ring, outer ring and the inner core are carried on throughout the upsetting process. Results have shown that, with changing in height, between outmost ring, outer ring and inner core, the Model 1 and Model 2 had very good interaction, and the contact surfaces of models had various interface behaviour. It is also observed that tri-metallic materials have lower weight but better mechanical properties than single materials. This can give an idea for using and producing these new materials for different purposes.

Keywords: Tri-metallic, upsetting, copper, brass, steel, aluminum.

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7130 A Model of a Heat Radiation on a Mould Surface in the Car Industry

Authors: J. Mlýnek, R. Srb

Abstract:

This article is focused on the calculation of heat radiation intensity and its optimization on an aluminum mould surface. The inside of the mould is sprinkled with a special powder and its outside is heated by infra heaters located above the mould surface, up to a temperature of 250°C. By this way artificial leathers in the car industry are produced (e. g. the artificial leather on a car dashboard). A mathematical model of heat radiation of infra heaters on a mould surface is described in this paper. This model allows us to calculate a heat-intensity radiation on the mould surface for the concrete location of infra heaters above the mould surface. It is necessary to ensure approximately the same heat intensity radiation on the mould surface by finding a suitable location for the infra heaters, and in this way the same material structure and color of artificial leather. In the model we have used a genetic algorithm to optimize the radiation intensity on the mould surface. Experimental measured values for the heat radiation intensity by a sensor in the surroundings of an infra heater are used for the calculation procedures. A computational procedure was programmed in language Matlab.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, mathematical model of heat radiation, optimization of radiation intensity, software implementation

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7129 Stepwise Refinement in Executable-UML for Embedded System Design: A Preliminary Study

Authors: Nurul Azma Zakaria, Masahiro Kimura, Noriko Matsumoto, Norihiko Yoshida

Abstract:

The fast growth in complexity coupled with requests for shorter development periods for embedded systems are bringing demands towards a more effective, i.e. higher-abstract, design process for hardaware/software integrated design. In Software Engineering area, Model Driven Architecture (MDA) and Executable UML (xUML) has been accepted to bring further improvement in software design. This paper constructs MDA and xUML stepwise transformations from an abstract specification model to a more concrete implementation model using the refactoring technique for hardaware/software integrated design. This approach provides clear and structured models which enables quick exploration and synthesis, and early stage verification.

Keywords: Hardware/software integrated design, model driven architecture, executable UML, refactoring.

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7128 Fluorescence Spectroscopy of Lysozyme-Silver Nanoparticles Complex

Authors: S. Ashrafpour, T. Tohidi Moghadam, B. Ranjbar

Abstract:

Identifying the nature of protein-nanoparticle interactions and favored binding sites is an important issue in functional characterization of biomolecules and their physiological responses. Herein, interaction of silver nanoparticles with lysozyme as a model protein has been monitored via fluorescence spectroscopy. Formation of complex between the biomolecule and silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) induced a steady state reduction in the fluorescence intensity of protein at different concentrations of nanoparticles. Tryptophan fluorescence quenching spectra suggested that silver nanoparticles act as a foreign quencher, approaching the protein via this residue. Analysis of the Stern-Volmer plot showed quenching constant of 3.73 μM−1. Moreover, a single binding site in lysozyme is suggested to play role during interaction with AgNPs, having low affinity of binding compared to gold nanoparticles. Unfolding studies of lysozyme showed that complex of lysozyme- AgNPs has not undergone structural perturbations compared to the bare protein. Results of this effort will pave the way for utilization of sensitive spectroscopic techniques for rational design of nanobiomaterials in biomedical applications.

Keywords: Nanocarrier, Nanoparticles, Surface Plasmon Resonance, Quenching Fluorescence.

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7127 Probabilistic Model Development for Project Performance Forecasting

Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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7126 A Multiple Linear Regression Model to Predict the Price of Cement in Nigeria

Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R2 of 0.8428 and R2 (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.

Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.

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7125 A Trust Model using Fuzzy Logic in Wireless Sensor Network

Authors: Tae Kyung Kim, Hee Suk Seo

Abstract:

Adapting various sensor devices to communicate within sensor networks empowers us by providing range of possibilities. The sensors in sensor networks need to know their measurable belief of trust for efficient and safe communication. In this paper, we suggested a trust model using fuzzy logic in sensor network. Trust is an aggregation of consensus given a set of past interaction among sensors. We applied our suggested model to sensor networks in order to show how trust mechanisms are involved in communicating algorithm to choose the proper path from source to destination.

Keywords: Fuzzy, Sensor Networks, Trust.

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7124 Development of Risk Assessment and Occupational Safety Management Model for Building Construction Projects

Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

Abstract:

In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: Safety risks assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects.

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