Search results for: network data envelopment analysis

Authors: Yuhong Lu

Abstract:

Graves’ Disease (GD), an autoimmune health condition caused by the over reactiveness of the thyroid, affects about 1 in 200 people worldwide. GD is not caused by one specific single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) or gene mutation, but rather determined by multiple factors, each differing from each other. Malfunction of the genes in Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) family tend to play a major role in autoimmune diseases, but other genes, such as LOC101929163, have functions that still remain ambiguous. Currently, little studies were done to study GD, resulting in inconclusive results. This study serves not only to introduce background knowledge about GD, but also to organize and pinpoint the major SNPs and genes that are potentially related to the occurrence of GD in humans. Collected from multiple sources from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) Central, the potential SNPs related to the causes of GD are included in this study. This study has located the genes that are related to those SNPs and closely examines a selected sample. Using the data from this study, scientists will then be able to focus on the most expressed genes in GD patients and develop a treatment for GD.

Keywords: CTLA4, Graves’ Disease, HLA, single nucleotide polymorphism, SNP.

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

Abstract:

Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: Line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity.

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Authors: Rohani Salleh, Mishaliny Sivadahasan Nair, Haryanni Harun

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High employee turnover rate in Malaysia-s retail industry has become a major issue that needs to be addressed. This study determines the levels of job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and turnover intention of employees in a retail company in Malaysia. The relationships between job satisfaction and organizational commitment on turnover intention are also investigated. A questionnaire was developed using Job Descriptive Index, Organizational Commitment Questionnaire, and Lee and Mowday-s turnover intention items and data were collected from 62 respondents. The findings suggested that the respondents were moderately satisfied with job satisfaction facets such as promotion, work itself, co-workers, and supervisors but were unsatisfied with salary. They also had moderate commitment level with considerably high intention to leave the organization. All satisfaction facets (except for co-workers) and organizational commitment were significantly and negatively related to turnover intention. Based on the findings, retention strategies of retail employees were proposed.

Keywords: Job satisfaction, organizational commitment, retail employees, turnover intention.

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Authors: Popa Cosmin, Chiran Aurel

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The study aimed to identify the logical structure of data and particularities of developing and testing a website designed for selling farm products through online auctions. The research is based on a short literature review in the field and exploratory trials of some successful models from other industries, in order to identify the advantages of using such tool, as well as the optimal structure and functionality of an auction portal. In the last part, the study focuses on the results of testing the website by the potential beneficiaries. Conclusions of the study underlines that the particularities of some agricultural products could raise difficulties in the process of selling them through online auctions, but the use of such system it is perceived to bring significant improvements in the supply chain. The results of scientific investigations require a more detailed study regarding the importance of using quality standards for agricultural products sold via online auction, the impact that implementation of an online payment system could have on trade with agricultural products and problems which could arise in using the website in different countries.

Keywords: E-commerce, online auctions, marketing.

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Authors: Jeon Chi-Ho, Lee Jae-Bin, Shim Chang-Su

Abstract:

National bridge inventory in Korea shows that the number of old prestressed concrete (PSC) bridgeover 30 years of service life is rapidly increasing. Recently tendon corrosion is one of the most critical issues in the maintenance of PSC bridges. In this paper, mechanical properties of corroded strands, which were removed from old bridges, were evaluated using tensile test. In the result, the equations to express the mechanical behavior of corroded strand were derived and compared to existing equation. For the decision of tendon replacement, it is necessary to evaluate the effect of corrosion level on strength and ductility of the structure. Considerations on analysis of PSC girders were introduced, and decision making on tendon replacement was also proposed.

Keywords: Prestressed concrete bridge, prestressing steel, corrosion, strength, ductility.

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Authors: Magnus Eriksson, Arif Mahmud

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A novel idea presented in this paper is to combine multihop routing with single-frequency networks (SFNs) for a broadcasting scenario. An SFN is a set of multiple nodes that transmit the same data simultaneously, resulting in transmitter macrodiversity. Two of the most important performance factors of multihop networks, node reachability and routing robustness, are analyzed. Simulation results show that our proposed SFN-D routing algorithm improves the node reachability by 37 percentage points as compared to non-SFN multihop routing. It shows a diversity gain of 3.7 dB, meaning that 3.7 dB lower transmission powers are required for the same reachability. Even better results are possible for larger networks. If an important node becomes inactive, this algorithm can find new routes that a non-SFN scheme would not be able to find. Thus, two of the major problems in multihopping are addressed; achieving robust routing as well as improving node reachability or reducing transmission power.

Keywords: OFDM, single-frequency networks (SFN), DSFN, MANET; multihop routing, transmitter macrodiversity, broadcasting.

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Authors: Barenten Suciu

Abstract:

In this paper, effectiveness of a machine design process is evaluated on the basis of the specific output calculus. Concretely, a screw-worm gear mechanical transmission is designed by using the classical and the 3D-CAD methods. Strength analysis and drawing of the designed parts is substantially aided by employing the SolidWorks software. Quality of the design process is assessed by manufacturing (printing) the parts, and by computing the efficiency, specific load, as well as the specific output (work) of the mechanical transmission. Influence of the stroke, travelling velocity and load on the mechanical output, is emphasized. Optimal design of the mechanical transmission becomes possible by the appropriate usage of the acquired results.

Keywords: Mechanical transmission, design, screw, worm-gear, efficiency, specific output, 3D-printing.

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Authors: Chinlun Lai, Lunjyh Jiang

Abstract:

Due to the heavy burden and pressure of caring for infants, an integrated automatic baby watching system based on IoT smart sensing and deep learning machine vision techniques is proposed in this paper. By monitoring infant body conditions such as heartbeat, breathing, body temperature, sleeping posture, as well as the surrounding conditions such as dangerous/sharp objects, light, noise, humidity and temperature, the proposed system can analyze and predict the obvious/potential dangerous conditions according to observed data and then adopt suitable actions in real time to protect the infant from harm. Thus, reducing the burden of the caregiver and improving safety efficiency of the caring work. The experimental results show that the proposed system works successfully for the infant care work and thus can be implemented in various life fields practically.

Keywords: Baby care system, internet of things, deep learning, machine vision.

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Authors: Michal Natora, Felix Franke, Klaus Obermayer

Abstract:

Linear convolutive filters are fast in calculation and in application, and thus, often used for real-time processing of continuous data streams. In the case of transient signals, a filter has not only to detect the presence of a specific waveform, but to estimate its arrival time as well. In this study, a measure is presented which indicates the performance of detectors in achieving both of these tasks simultaneously. Furthermore, a new sub-class of linear filters within the class of filters which minimize the quadratic response is proposed. The proposed filters are more flexible than the existing ones, like the adaptive matched filter or the minimum power distortionless response beamformer, and prove to be superior with respect to that measure in certain settings. Simulations of a real-time scenario confirm the advantage of these filters as well as the usefulness of the performance measure.

Keywords: Adaptive matched filter, minimum variance distortionless response, beam forming, Capon beam former, linear filters, performance measure.

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Authors: Takayuki Nanashima, Yoshiyuki Higuchi, Masao Ohta, Takashi Kuroda

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As a result of traffic congestion caused by sightseeing and shuttle buses using park-and-ride parking lot near sightseeing spot, the waiting time for tourist increases. In this paper, when bus parking lot near sightseeing spot are overcrowded and full, a model for tourists getting off a bus on a congested road and transfer to the sightseeing spot by foot is proposed and verified. A model of getting off a bus on a congested road when the sightseeing parking lot is overcrowded was considered by the case analysis. As a result, effectiveness of the model of getting off a bus on a congested road could be quantitatively verified for times when parking capacity is exceeded and the bus parking lot next to the sightseeing spot is overcrowded.

Keywords: Transportation demand management, Park-and-ride, Traffic congestion, Tourist satisfaction.

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Authors: Chung-Hsin Huang, Chien-Ching Chiu, Chun Jen Lin

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The electromagnetic imaging of inhomogeneous dielectric cylinders buried in a slab medium by transverse electric (TE) wave illumination is investigated. Dielectric cylinders of unknown permittivities are buried in second space and scattered a group of unrelated waves incident from first space where the scattered field is recorded. By proper arrangement of the various unrelated incident fields, the difficulties of ill-posedness and nonlinearity are circumvented, and the permittivity distribution can be reconstructed through simple matrix operations. The algorithm is based on the moment method and the unrelated illumination method. Numerical results are given to demonstrate the capability of the inverse algorithm. Good reconstruction is obtained even in the presence of additive Gaussian random noise in measured data. In addition, the effect of noise on the reconstruction result is also investigated.

Keywords: Slab Medium, Unrelated Illumination Method, TEWave Illumination, Inhomogeneous Cylinders.

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Authors: Nidal H. Abu-Zahra, Parisa Khoshnoud, Murtatha Jamel, Subhashini Gunashekar

Abstract:

PVC foam-fly ash composites (PVC-FA) are characterized for their structural, morphological, mechanical and thermal properties. The tensile strength of the composites increased modestly with higher fly ash loading, while there was a significant increase in the elastic modulus for the same composites. On the other hand, a decrease in elongation at UTS was observed upon increasing fly ash content due to increased rigidity of the composites. Similarly, the flexural modulus increased as the fly ash loading increased, where the composites containing 25 phr fly ash showed the highest flexural strength. Thermal properties of PVC-fly ash composites were determined by Thermo Gravimetric Analysis (TGA). The microstructural properties were studied by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). SEM results confirm that fly ash particles were mechanically interlocked in PVC matrix with good interfacial interaction with the matrix. Particle agglomeration and debonding was observed in samples containing higher amounts of fly ash.

Keywords: PVC Foam, Polyvinyl Chloride, Rigid PVC, Fly Ash Composites.

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Authors: A. Vilutis, V. Jankauskas

Abstract:

The paper presents the results of the investigation of the dry sliding friction of wood-plastic composites (WPCs) against tungsten carbide-cobalt (WC-Co) hard alloy. The dependence of the dynamic coefficient of friction on the main influencing factors (vertical load, temperature, and sliding distance) was investigated by evaluating their mutual interaction. Multiple regression analysis showed a high polynomial dependence (adjusted R2 > 0.98). The resistance of the composite to thermo-mechanical effects determines how temperature and force factors affect the magnitude of the coefficient of friction. WPC-B composite has the lowest friction and highest resistance compared to WPC-A, while composite and cemented carbide materials wear the least. Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS), based on elemental composition, provided important insights into the friction process.

Keywords: Friction, composite, carbide, temperature.

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Authors: Whee Yen Wong, Kim Yeow Tshai, Chan Wai Lee

Abstract:

There are various approaches to implement quality improvements. Organizations aim for a management standard which is capable of providing customers with quality assurance on their product/service via continuous process improvement. Carefully planned steps are necessary to ensure the right quality improvement methodology (QIM) and business operations are consistent, reliable and truly meet the customers' needs. This paper traces the evolution of QIM in Malaysia-s Information Technology (IT) industry in the past, current and future; and highlights some of the thought of researchers who contributed to the science and practice of quality, and identifies leading methodologies in use today. Some of the misconceptions and mistakes leading to quality system failures will also be examined and discussed. This paper aims to provide a general overview of different types of QIMs available for IT businesses in maximizing business advantages, enhancing product quality, improving process routines and increasing performance earnings.

Keywords: Evolution, Integrating and Aligning, Malaysia's Quality Improvement Methodology, Six Sigma Data Quality Management.

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Authors: Nazym Shedenova, Aigul Beimisheva

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The improvement of quality of life is the main visible integrated indicator of state well-being. More and more states pay attention to define and to achieve social standards of quality of life as social-economic strategy of development. These standards are determinate by state features, complex of needs and interests of individual, family and society. It still remains in open question: “What is middle class" in contemporary Kazakhstan. Appearance of new social standards of quality of life is important indicator of its successful establishment. The middle class as agent of social, politic and economic reforms promotes to improve the quality of life of the country. But if consider a low and a middle stratums of middle class, we can see that high social expectations and real achievements are still significantly different. The article relies on the sociological data, collected during of search of household-s standards of living in Almaty city and Almaty region, and case-study of cottage city “Jana Kuat".

Keywords: the quality of life, the social standards of life, the middle class of Kazakhstan, the economic behavior of households.

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Authors: M. B. Kime

Abstract:

Mass flow measurement is the basis of most technoeconomic formulations in the chemical industry. This calls for reliable and accurate detection of mass flow. Flow measurement laboratory experiments were conducted using various instruments. These consisted of orifice plates, various sized rotameters, wet gas meter and soap bubble meter. This work was aimed at evaluating appropriate operating conditions and accuracy of the aforementioned devices. The experimental data collected were compared to theoretical predictions from Bernoulli’s equation and calibration curves supplied by the instrument’s manufacturers. The results obtained showed that rotameters were more reliable for measuring high and low flow rates; while soap-bubble meters and wet-gas meters were found to be suitable for measuring low flow rates. The laboratory procedures and findings of the actual work can assist engineering students and professionals in conducting their flow measurement laboratory test work.

Keywords: Flow measurement, orifice plates, rotameters, wet gas meter, soap bubble meter.

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Authors: Bin Su

Abstract:

The 'wind-rain' house has a courtyard with glazed roof, which allows more direct sunlight to come into indoor spaces during the winter. The glazed roof can be partially opened or closed and automatically controlled to provide natural ventilation in order to adjust for indoor thermal conditions and the roof area can be shaded by reflective insulation materials during the summer. Two field studies for evaluating indoor thermal conditions of the two 'windrain' houses have been carried out by author in 2009 and 2010. Indoor and outdoor air temperature and relative humidity adjacent to floor and ceiling of the two sample houses were continuously tested at 15-minute intervals, 24 hours a day during the winter months. Based on field study data, this study investigates relationships between building design and indoor thermal condition of the 'windrain' house to improve the future house design for building thermal comfort and energy efficiency

Keywords: Courtyard, house design, indoor thermal comfort, 'wind-rain' house

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Authors: S. M. H. Karimian, F. S. Salehi, H. Alisadeghi

Abstract:

A two-dimensional moving mesh algorithm is developed to simulate the general motion of two rotating bodies with relative translational motion. The grid includes a background grid and two sets of grids around the moving bodies. With this grid arrangement rotational and translational motions of two bodies are handled separately, with no complications. Inter-grid boundaries are determined based on their distances from two bodies. In this method, the overset concept is applied to hybrid grid, and flow variables are interpolated using a simple stencil. To evaluate this moving mesh algorithm unsteady Euler flow is solved for different cases using dual-time method of Jameson. Numerical results show excellent agreement with experimental data and other numerical results. To demonstrate the capability of present algorithm for accurate solution of flow fields around moving bodies, some benchmark problems have been defined in this paper.

Keywords: Moving mesh, Overset grid, Unsteady Euler, Relative motion.

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Authors: Parit Kanjanavirojkul, Kiatwarakorn Keeratishananond, Prapun Suksompong

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We study the performance of compressed beamforming weights feedback technique in generalized triangular decomposition (GTD) based MIMO system. GTD is a beamforming technique that enjoys QoS flexibility. The technique, however, will perform at its optimum only when the full knowledge of channel state information (CSI) is available at the transmitter. This would be impossible in the real system, where there are channel estimation error and limited feedback. We suggest a way to implement the quantized beamforming weights feedback, which can significantly reduce the feedback data, on GTD-based MIMO system and investigate the performance of the system. Interestingly, we found that compressed beamforming weights feedback does not degrade the BER performance of the system at low input power, while the channel estimation error and quantization do. For comparison, GTD is more sensitive to compression and quantization, while SVD is more sensitive to the channel estimation error. We also explore the performance of GTDbased MU-MIMO system, and find that the BER performance starts to degrade largely at around -20 dB channel estimation error.

Keywords: MIMO, MU-MIMO, GTD, Imperfect CSI.

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Authors: Fahad Suleiman

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to study students’ view on mathematics learning in Katsina State Senior Secondary Schools of Nigeria, such as their conceptions of mathematics, attitudes toward mathematics learning, etc. A questionnaire was administered to a random sample of 1,225 senior secondary two (SS II) students of Katsina State in Nigeria. The data collected showed a clear picture of the hurdles that affect the teaching and learning of mathematics in our schools. Problems such as logistics and operational which include shortage of mathematics teachers, non–availability of a mathematics laboratory, etc. were identified. It also depicted the substantial trends of changing views and attitudes toward mathematics across secondary schools. Students’ responses to the conception of mathematics were consistent and they demonstrated some specific characteristics of their views in learning mathematics. This survey has provided useful information regarding students’ needs and aspirations in mathematics learning for curriculum planners and frontline teachers for future curriculum reform and implementation.

Keywords: Attitude, education, mathematics, students.

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Authors: Malika.D Kedir-Talha, Mohammed Mehenni

Abstract:

To improve the characterization of blood flows, we propose a method which makes it possible to use the spectral analysis of the Doppler signals. Our calculation induces a reasonable approximation, the error made on estimated speed reflects the fact that speed depends on the flow conditions as well as on measurement parameters like the bore and the volume flow rate. The estimate of the Doppler signal frequency enables us to determine the maximum Doppler frequencie Fd max as well as the maximum flow speed. The results show that the difference between the estimated frequencies ( Fde ) and the Doppler frequencies ( Fd ) is small, this variation tends to zero for important θ angles and it is proportional to the diameter D. The description of the speed of friction and the coefficient of friction justify the error rate obtained.

Keywords: Doppler frequency, Doppler spectrum, estimate speed, permanent flow.

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Authors: Kalayanee Koonmee

Abstract:

An incentive for performance, as one subsystem of a new performance management system, has been implemented in the Thai public sector since 2004. This research investigates the development of organizational justice in the incentive allocation by comparing the roles of distributive and procedural justice on national personnel-s attitudinal outcomes (incentive satisfaction and job performance) between 2 periods, i.e. 2006 and 2008. The data were collected via self-administered questionnaires completed by national government officers and employees. They were stratified using multistage sampling with 2,600 usable samples or 72.0% response rate in 2006, and 1,969 usable samples or 59.3% in 2008. The findings are: (1) There is no difference in means between the two periods relating to distributive justice, procedural justice, incentive satisfaction and job performance. (2) Distributive justice and procedural justice played more important roles in predicting incentive satisfaction and job performance in 2008 than in 2006.

Keywords: Distributive justice, incentive allocation, proceduraljustice, Thai public sector.

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Authors: A.Marisa, Nor'Aini Yusof

Abstract:

Managers as the key employees have a very important role in maintaining the workforce performance which is critical to the construction companies- success in the future. If motivated employees start with motivated managers probably it would seem plausible if the de-motivated ones start with de-motivated managers. This study aims to analyze the importance of motivated managers to their successes and construction companies- successes. In this study, a quantitative method was used and the study area was in Medan, North Sumatera. Questionnaire survey was distributed directly to construction companies in Medan which are listed in the Construction Services Development Board. A total of 60 managers responded and the completed questionnaires were analyzed using the descriptive analysis. The results indicated that the respondents acknowledge the importance of motivation among themselves to the projects and construction companies- success, implying that it is vital to maintain the motivation and good performance of the workforce.

Keywords: construction companies, managers, motivation

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Authors: N. Gigauri, A. Surmava

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According to observational data, experimental measurements and numerical modelling, the pollution of one of the industrial centers of Georgia, Rustavi City’s atmosphere with micro aerosols are assessed. Monthly, daily and hourly changes of the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 in the city atmosphere are analyzed. It is accepted that PM2.5 concentrations are always lower than PM10 concentrations, but their change curve is the same. In addition, it has been noted that the maximum concentrations of particles in the atmosphere of Rustavi city will be reached at any part of the day, which is determined by the total impact of the traffic flow and industrial facilities. Through numerical modelling, the influence of background western light air, gentle and fresh breeze on the distribution of particulate matter in the atmosphere was calculated. Calculations showed that background light air and gentle breeze lead to an increase the concentrations of microaerosols in the city's atmosphere, while fresh breeze contributes to the dispersion of dusty clouds. As a result, the level of dust in the city is decreasing, but the distribution area is expanding.

Keywords: Air pollution, numerical modeling, experimental measurement, PM2.5, PM10.

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Authors: Sattam Allahawiah, Haroon Altarawneh, Sameer Alamro

Abstract:

Because of its global reach, reduction of time restraints, and ability to reduce costs and increase sales, use of the Internet, the World Wide Web (WWW), and related technologies can be a competitive tool in the arsenal of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Countries the world over are interested in the successful adoption of the Internet by SMEs. Because a vast majority of jobs come from that sector, greater financial success of SMEs translates into greater job growth and, subsequently, higher tax revenue to the government. This research investigated the level of Internet usage for business solutions by small and medium enterprises in Jordan. Through the survey of a random sample of 100 firms with less than 500 employees and from data obtained from this survey that formed the basis for our study, we found that a majority of respondents use the Internet in business activities , the adoption of the Internet as a business tool is limited to a brochure where Web site which primarily provides one way. As such, there wasn't interactive information about the company and its products and services.

Keywords: Internet, SMEs, e-commerce, website, e-business, IT.

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Authors: Kazuaki Maeda

Abstract:

This paper describes a code clone visualization method, called FC graph, and the implementation issues. Code clone detection tools usually show the results in a textual representation. If the results are large, it makes a problem to software maintainers with understanding them. One of the approaches to overcome the situation is visualization of code clone detection results. A scatter plot is a popular approach to the visualization. However, it represents only one-to-one correspondence and it is difficult to find correspondence of code clones over multiple files. FC graph represents correspondence among files, code clones and packages in Java. All nodes in FC graph are positioned using force-directed graph layout, which is dynami- cally calculated to adjust the distances of nodes until stabilizing them. We applied FC graph to some open source programs and visualized the results. In the author’s experience, FC graph is helpful to grasp correspondence of code clones over multiple files and also code clones with in a file.

Keywords: code clone detection, program comprehension, software maintenance, visualization

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Authors: D.T. Mirzarakhmetova

Abstract:

The studying of enzymatic esterification of carboxylic acids and higher alcohols was performed by esterase Saccharomyces cerevisiae in water-organic medium. Investigation of the enzyme specificity to acetic substrates showed the best result with acetic acid in esterification reactions with ethanol whereas within other carboxylic acids the esterification decreased with acids: hexanoic > pentanoic > butyric > decanoic. In relation to higher alcohols C3-C5, esterification increased with alcohols propanol < butanol < amylol. Also it was determined that esterase was more specific to alcohols with branched chain such as isobutyl alcohol and isoamyl alcohol. Data obtained may have important practical implications, for example, for application of yeast esterase in producing various volatile esters as well as in enzymatic transformation of volatile acids and toxic fusel alcohols into volatile esters by providing the production of the high quality alcoholic beverages with redused content of higher alcohols as well as with improved degustational and hygienic properties.

Keywords: enzymes in non-conventional media, esterification, higher alcohols, volatile esters, yeast esterase

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Authors: Morteza Khaleghi, Babak Seyed Aghazadeh, Hosein Bisadi

Abstract:

Oxyhydrogen is a mixture of Hydrogen (H₂) and Oxygen (O₂) gases. Detonative mixtures of oxyhydrogens with various combinations of these two gases were used in Gas Detonation Forming (GDF) to form sheets of mild steel. In die forming experiments, three types of conical dies with apex angles of 60, 90 and 120 degrees were used. Pressure of mixtures inside the chamber before detonation was varied from 3 Bar to 5 Bar to investigate the effect of pre-detonation pressure in the forming process. On each conical die, several experiments with different percentages of Hydrogen were carried out to determine the optimum gaseous mixture. According to our results the best forming process occurred when approximately 50-70%. Hydrogen was employed in the mixture. Furthermore, the experimental results were compared to the ones from FEM analysis. The FEM simulation results of thickness strain, hoop strain, thickness variation and deformed geometry are promising.

Keywords: Sheet metal forming, Gas detonation, FEM, Oxyhydrogen

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Authors: Soma Roychowdhury

Abstract:

This paper deals with a periodic-review substitutable inventory system for a finite and an infinite number of periods. Here an upward substitution structure, a substitution of a more costly item by a less costly one, is assumed, with two products. At the beginning of each period, a stochastic demand comes for the first item only, which is quality-wise better and hence costlier. Whenever an arriving demand finds zero inventory of this product, a fraction of unsatisfied customers goes for its substitutable second item. An optimal ordering policy has been derived for each period. The results are illustrated with numerical examples. A sensitivity analysis has been done to examine how sensitive the optimal solution and the maximum profit are to the values of the discount factor, when there is a large number of periods.

Keywords: Multi-period model, inventory, random demand, upward substitution.

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Authors: M. Cizmesija, N. Erjavec, V. Bahovec

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While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.

Keywords: Balance, Business Survey, Confidence Indicators, Industrial Production, Forecasting.

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