Search results for: Fuzzy forecasting
140 Urban Roads of Bhopal City
Authors: Anshu Gupta
Abstract:
Quality evaluation of urban environment is an integral part of efficient urban environment planning and management. The development of fuzzy set theory (FST) and the introduction of FST to the urban study field attempts to incorporate the gradual variation and avoid loss of information. Urban environmental quality assessment pertain to interpretation and forecast of the urban environmental quality according to the national regulation about the permitted content of contamination for the sake of protecting human health and subsistence environment . A strategic motor vehicle control strategy has to be proposed to mitigate the air pollution in the city. There is no well defined guideline for the assessment of urban air pollution and no systematic study has been reported so far for Indian cities. The methodology adopted may be useful in similar cities of India. Remote sensing & GIS can play significant role in mapping air pollution.Keywords: GIS, Pollution, Remote Sensing, Urban.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2641139 An IM-COH Algorithm Neural Network Optimization with Cuckoo Search Algorithm for Time Series Samples
Authors: Wullapa Wongsinlatam
Abstract:
Back propagation algorithm (BP) is a widely used technique in artificial neural network and has been used as a tool for solving the time series problems, such as decreasing training time, maximizing the ability to fall into local minima, and optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias. This paper proposes an improvement of a BP technique which is called IM-COH algorithm (IM-COH). By combining IM-COH algorithm with cuckoo search algorithm (CS), the result is cuckoo search improved control output hidden layer algorithm (CS-IM-COH). This new algorithm has a better ability in optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias than the original BP algorithm. In this research, the algorithm of CS-IM-COH is compared with the original BP, the IM-COH, and the original BP with CS (CS-BP). Furthermore, the selected benchmarks, four time series samples, are shown in this research for illustration. The research shows that the CS-IM-COH algorithm give the best forecasting results compared with the selected samples.Keywords: Artificial neural networks, back propagation algorithm, time series, local minima problem, metaheuristic optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1094138 Dynamic Self-Scheduling of Pumped-Storage Power Plant in Energy and Ancillary Service Markets Using Sliding Window Technique
Authors: P. Kanakasabapathy, Radhika. S,
Abstract:
In the competitive electricity market environment, the profit of the pumped-storage plant in the energy market can be maximized by operating it as a generator, when market clearing price is high and as a pump, to pump water from lower reservoir to upper reservoir, when the price is low. An optimal self-scheduling plan has been developed for a pumped-storage plant, carried out on weekly basis in order to maximize the profit of the plant, keeping into account of all the major uncertainties such as the sudden ancillary service delivery request and the price forecasting errors. For a pumped storage power plant to operate in a real time market successive self scheduling has to be done by considering the forecast of the day-ahead market and the modified reservoir storage due to the ancillary service request of the previous day. Sliding Window Technique has been used for successive self scheduling to ensure profit for the plant.
Keywords: Ancillary services, BPSO, Power System Economics (Electricity markets), Self-Scheduling, Sliding Window Technique.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2574137 Statistical and Land Planning Study of Tourist Arrivals in Greece during 2005-2016
Authors: Dimitra Alexiou
Abstract:
During the last 10 years, in spite of the economic crisis, the number of tourists arriving in Greece has increased, particularly during the tourist season from April to October. In this paper, the number of annual tourist arrivals is studied to explore their preferences with regard to the month of travel, the selected destinations, as well the amount of money spent. The collected data are processed with statistical methods, yielding numerical and graphical results. From the computation of statistical parameters and the forecasting with exponential smoothing, useful conclusions are arrived at that can be used by the Greek tourism authorities, as well as by tourist organizations, for planning purposes for the coming years. The results of this paper and the computed forecast can also be used for decision making by private tourist enterprises that are investing in Greece. With regard to the statistical methods, the method of Simple Exponential Smoothing of time series of data is employed. The search for a best forecast for 2017 and 2018 provides the value of the smoothing coefficient. For all statistical computations and graphics Microsoft Excel is used.
Keywords: Tourism, statistical methods, exponential smoothing, land spatial planning, economy, Microsoft Excel.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 707136 Variation of Spot Price and Profits of Andhra Pradesh State Grid in Deregulated Environment
Authors: Chava Sunil Kumar, P.S. Subrahmanyan, J. Amarnath
Abstract:
In this paper variation of spot price and total profits of the generating companies- through wholesale electricity trading are discussed with and without Central Generating Stations (CGS) share and seasonal variations are also considered. It demonstrates how proper analysis of generators- efficiencies and capabilities, types of generators owned, fuel costs, transmission losses and settling price variation using the solutions of Optimal Power Flow (OPF), can allow companies to maximize overall revenue. It illustrates how solutions of OPF can be used to maximize companies- revenue under different scenarios. And is also extended to computation of Available Transfer Capability (ATC) is very important to the transmission system security and market forecasting. From these results it is observed that how crucial it is for companies to plan their daily operations and is certainly useful in an online environment of deregulated power system. In this paper above tasks are demonstrated on 124 bus real-life Indian utility power system of Andhra Pradesh State Grid and results have been presented and analyzed.Keywords: OPF, ATC, Electricity Market, Bid, Spot Price
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1814135 A Methodology for Creating a Conceptual Model Under Uncertainty
Authors: Bogdan Walek, Jiri Bartos, Cyril Klimes
Abstract:
This article deals with the conceptual modeling under uncertainty. First, the division of information systems with their definition will be described, focusing on those where the construction of a conceptual model is suitable for the design of future information system database. Furthermore, the disadvantages of the traditional approach in creating a conceptual model and database design will be analyzed. A comprehensive methodology for the creation of a conceptual model based on analysis of client requirements and the selection of a suitable domain model is proposed here. This article presents the expert system used for the construction of a conceptual model and is a suitable tool for database designers to create a conceptual model.
Keywords: Conceptual model, conceptual modeling, database, methodology, uncertainty, information system, entity, attribute, relationship, conceptual domain model, fuzzy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1584134 An Integrated DEMATEL-QFD Model for Medical Supplier Selection
Authors: Mehtap Dursun, Zeynep Şener
Abstract:
Supplier selection is considered as one of the most critical issues encountered by operations and purchasing managers to sharpen the company’s competitive advantage. In this paper, a novel fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making approach integrating quality function deployment (QFD) and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is proposed for supplier selection. The proposed methodology enables to consider the impacts of inner dependence among supplier assessment criteria. A house of quality (HOQ) which translates purchased product features into supplier assessment criteria is built using the weights obtained by DEMATEL approach to determine the desired levels of supplier assessment criteria. Supplier alternatives are ranked by a distance-based method.
Keywords: DEMATEL, Group decision making, QFD, Supplier selection.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2824133 Comparative Study of Line Voltage Stability Indices for Voltage Collapse Forecasting in Power Transmission System
Authors: H. H. Goh, Q. S. Chua, S. W. Lee, B. C. Kok, K. C. Goh, K. T. K. Teo
Abstract:
At present, the evaluation of voltage stability assessment experiences sizeable anxiety in the safe operation of power systems. This is due to the complications of a strain power system. With the snowballing of power demand by the consumers and also the restricted amount of power sources, therefore, the system has to perform at its maximum proficiency. Consequently, the noteworthy to discover the maximum ability boundary prior to voltage collapse should be undertaken. A preliminary warning can be perceived to evade the interruption of power system’s capacity. The effectiveness of line voltage stability indices (LVSI) is differentiated in this paper. The main purpose of the indices used is to predict the proximity of voltage instability of the electric power system. On the other hand, the indices are also able to decide the weakest load buses which are close to voltage collapse in the power system. The line stability indices are assessed using the IEEE 14 bus test system to validate its practicability. Results demonstrated that the implemented indices are practically relevant in predicting the manifestation of voltage collapse in the system. Therefore, essential actions can be taken to dodge the incident from arising.
Keywords: Critical line, line outage, line voltage stability indices (LVSI), maximum loadability, voltage collapse, voltage instability, voltage stability analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4168132 Evaluating Hourly Sulphur Dioxide and Ground Ozone Simulated with the Air Quality Model in Lima, Peru
Authors: Odón R. Sánchez-Ccoyllo, Elizabeth Ayma-Choque, Alan Llacza
Abstract:
Sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and surface-ozone (O₃) concentrations are associated with diseases. The objective of this research is to evaluate the effectiveness of the air-quality Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model with a horizontal resolution of 5 km x 5 km. For this purpose, the measurements of the hourly SO₂ and O₃ concentrations available in three air quality monitoring stations in Lima, Peru were used for the purpose of validating the simulations of the SO₂ and O₃ concentrations obtained with the WRF-Chem model in February 2018. For the quantitative evaluation of the simulations of these gases, statistical techniques were implemented, such as the average of the simulations; the average of the measurements; the Mean Bias (MeB); the Mean Error (MeE); and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results of these statistical metrics indicated that the simulated SO₂ and O₃ values over-predicted the SO₂ and O₃ measurements. For the SO₂ concentration, the MeB values varied from 0.58 to 26.35 µg/m³; the MeE values varied from 8.75 to 26.5 µg/m³; the RMSE values varied from 13.3 to 31.79 µg/m³; while for O₃ concentrations the statistical values of the MeB varied from 37.52 to 56.29 µg/m³; the MeE values varied from 37.54 to 56.70 µg/m³; the RMSE values varied from 43.05 to 69.56 µg/m³.
Keywords: Ground-ozone, Lima, Sulphur dioxide, WRF-Chem.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 366131 Volatility Switching between Two Regimes
Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga
Abstract:
Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behavior of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.
Keywords: Central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2521130 De-noising Infrared Image Using OWA Based Filter
Authors: Ruchika, Munish Vashisht, S. Qamar
Abstract:
Detection of small ship is crucial task in many automatic surveillance systems which are employed for security of maritime boundaries of a country. To address this problem, image de-noising is technique to identify the target ship in between many other ships in the sea. Image de-noising technique needs to extract the ship’s image from sea background for the analysis as the ship’s image may submerge in the background and flooding waves. In this paper, a noise filter is presented that is based on fuzzy linguistic ‘most’ quantifier. Ordered weighted averaging (OWA) function is used to remove salt-pepper noise of ship’s image. Results obtained are in line with the results available by other well-known median filters and OWA based approach shows better performance.
Keywords: Linguistic quantifier, impulse noise, OWA filter, median filter.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 933129 Using Fuzzy Controller in Induction Motor Speed Control with Constant Flux
Authors: Hassan Baghgar Bostan Abad, Ali Yazdian Varjani, Taheri Asghar
Abstract:
Variable speed drives are growing and varying. Drives expanse depend on progress in different part of science like power system, microelectronic, control methods, and so on. Artificial intelligent contains hard computation and soft computation. Artificial intelligent has found high application in most nonlinear systems same as motors drive. Because it has intelligence like human but there are no sentimental against human like angriness and.... Artificial intelligent is used for various points like approximation, control, and monitoring. Because artificial intelligent techniques can use as controller for any system without requirement to system mathematical model, it has been used in electrical drive control. With this manner, efficiency and reliability of drives increase and volume, weight and cost of them decrease.
Keywords: Artificial intelligent, electrical motor, intelligent drive and control,
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2484128 Modern Trends in Foreign Direct Investments in Georgia
Authors: Rusudan Kinkladze, Guguli Kurashvili, Ketevan Chitaladze
Abstract:
Foreign direct investment is a driving force in the development of the interdependent national economies, and the study and analysis of investments is an urgent problem. It is particularly important for transitional economies, such as Georgia, and the study and analysis of investments is an urgent problem. Consequently, the goal of the research is the study and analysis of direct foreign investments in Georgia, and identification and forecasting of modern trends, and covers the period of 2006-2015. The study uses the methods of statistical observation, grouping and analysis, the methods of analytical indicators of time series, trend identification and the predicted values are calculated, as well as various literary and Internet sources relevant to the research. The findings showed that modern investment policy In Georgia is favorable for domestic as well as foreign investors. Georgia is still a net importer of investments. In 2015, the top 10 investing countries was led by Azerbaijan, United Kingdom and Netherlands, and the largest share of FDIs were allocated in the transport and communication sector; the financial sector was the second, followed by the health and social work sector, and the same trend will continue in the future.
Keywords: Foreign Direct Investments, methods, statistics, analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 919127 New Robust Approach of Direct Field Oriented Control of Induction Motor
Authors: T. Benmiloud, A. Omari
Abstract:
This paper presents a new technique of compensation of the effect of variation parameters in the direct field oriented control of induction motor. The proposed method uses an adaptive tuning of the value of synchronous speed to obtain the robustness for the field oriented control. We show that this adaptive tuning allows having robustness for direct field oriented control to changes in rotor resistance, load torque and rotational speed. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is verified by numerical simulations. The numerical validation results of the proposed scheme have presented good performances compared to the usual direct-field oriented control.Keywords: Induction motor, direct field-oriented control, compensation of variation parameters, fuzzy logic controller.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1862126 ANFIS Modeling of the Surface Roughness in Grinding Process
Authors: H. Baseri, G. Alinejad
Abstract:
The objective of this study is to design an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for estimation of surface roughness in grinding process. The Used data have been generated from experimental observations when the wheel has been dressed using a rotary diamond disc dresser. The input parameters of model are dressing speed ratio, dressing depth and dresser cross-feed rate and output parameter is surface roughness. In the experimental procedure the grinding conditions are constant and only the dressing conditions are varied. The comparison of the predicted values and the experimental data indicates that the ANFIS model has a better performance with respect to back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model which has been presented by the authors in previous work for estimation of the surface roughness.Keywords: Grinding, ANFIS, Neural network, Disc dressing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2416125 Examination of Flood Runoff Reproductivity for Different Rainfall Sources in Central Vietnam
Authors: Do Hoai Nam, Keiko Udo, Akira Mano
Abstract:
This paper presents the combination of different precipitation data sets and the distributed hydrological model, in order to examine the flood runoff reproductivity of scattered observation catchments. The precipitation data sets were obtained from observation using rain-gages, satellite based estimate (TRMM), and numerical weather prediction model (NWP), then were coupled with the super tank model. The case study was conducted in three basins (small, medium, and large size) located in Central Vietnam. Calculated hydrographs based on ground observation rainfall showed best fit to measured stream flow, while those obtained from TRMM and NWP showed high uncertainty of peak discharges. However, calculated hydrographs using the adjusted rainfield depicted a promising alternative for the application of TRMM and NWP in flood modeling for scattered observation catchments, especially for the extension of forecast lead time.
Keywords: Flood forecast, rainfall-runoff model, satellite rainfall estimate, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1609124 Research on a Forest Fire Spread Simulation Driven by the Wind Field in Complex Terrain
Authors: Ying Shang, Chencheng Wang
Abstract:
The wind field is the main driving factor for the spread of forest fires. For the simulation results of forest fire spread to be more accurate, it is necessary to obtain more detailed wind field data. Therefore, this paper studied the mountainous fine wind field simulation method coupled with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) to realize the numerical simulation of the wind field in a mountainous area with a scale of 30 m and a small measurement error. Local topographical changes have an important impact on the wind field. Based on the Rothermel fire spread model, a forest fire in Idaho in the western United States was simulated. The historical data proved that the simulation results had a good accuracy. They showed that the fire spread rate will decrease rapidly with time and then reach a steady state. After reaching a steady state, the fire spread growth area will not only be affected by the slope, but will also show a significant quadratic linear positive correlation with the wind speed change.
Keywords: Wind field, numerical simulation, forest fire spread, fire behavior model, complex terrain.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 380123 Model Discovery and Validation for the Qsar Problem using Association Rule Mining
Authors: Luminita Dumitriu, Cristina Segal, Marian Craciun, Adina Cocu, Lucian P. Georgescu
Abstract:
There are several approaches in trying to solve the Quantitative 1Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) problem. These approaches are based either on statistical methods or on predictive data mining. Among the statistical methods, one should consider regression analysis, pattern recognition (such as cluster analysis, factor analysis and principal components analysis) or partial least squares. Predictive data mining techniques use either neural networks, or genetic programming, or neuro-fuzzy knowledge. These approaches have a low explanatory capability or non at all. This paper attempts to establish a new approach in solving QSAR problems using descriptive data mining. This way, the relationship between the chemical properties and the activity of a substance would be comprehensibly modeled.Keywords: association rules, classification, data mining, Quantitative Structure - Activity Relationship.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1788122 A CBR System to New Product Development: An Application for Hearing Devices Design
Authors: J.L. Castro, K. Benghazi, M.V. Hurtado, M. Navarro, J.M. Zurita
Abstract:
Nowadays, quick technological changes force companies to develop innovative products in an increasingly competitive environment. Therefore, how to enhance the time of new product development is very important. This design problem often lacks the exact formula for getting it, and highly depends upon human designers- past experiences. For these reasons, in this work, a Casebased reasoning (CBR) system to assist in new product development is proposed. When a case is recovered from the case base, the system will take into account not only the attribute-s specific value and how important it is. It will also take into account if the attribute has a positive influence over the product development. Hence the manufacturing time will be improved. This information will be introduced as a new concept called “adaptability". An application to this method for hearing instrument new design illustrates the proposed approach.Keywords: Case based reasoning, Fuzzy logic, New product development, Retrieval stage, Similarity.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1478121 PSO-based Possibilistic Portfolio Model with Transaction Costs
Authors: Wei Chen, Cui-you Yao, Yue Qiu
Abstract:
This paper deals with a portfolio selection problem based on the possibility theory under the assumption that the returns of assets are LR-type fuzzy numbers. A possibilistic portfolio model with transaction costs is proposed, in which the possibilistic mean value of the return is termed measure of investment return, and the possibilistic variance of the return is termed measure of investment risk. Due to considering transaction costs, the existing traditional optimization algorithms usually fail to find the optimal solution efficiently and heuristic algorithms can be the best method. Therefore, a particle swarm optimization is designed to solve the corresponding optimization problem. At last, a numerical example is given to illustrate our proposed effective means and approaches.Keywords: Possibility theory, portfolio selection, transaction costs, particle swarm optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1534120 Balancing and Synchronization Control of a Two Wheel Inverted Pendulum Vehicle
Authors: Shiuh-Jer Huang, Shin-Ham Lee, Sheam-Chyun Lin
Abstract:
A two wheel inverted pendulum (TWIP) vehicle is built with two hub DC motors for motion control evaluation. Arduino Nano micro-processor is chosen as the control kernel for this electric test plant. Accelerometer and gyroscope sensors are built in to measure the tilt angle and angular velocity of the inverted pendulum vehicle. Since the TWIP has significantly hub motor dead zone and nonlinear system dynamics characteristics, the vehicle system is difficult to control by traditional model based controller. The intelligent model-free fuzzy sliding mode controller (FSMC) was employed as the main control algorithm. Then, intelligent controllers are designed for TWIP balance control, and two wheels synchronization control purposes.Keywords: Balance control, synchronization control, two wheel inverted pendulum, TWIP.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1591119 A Preliminary Study for Design of Automatic Block Reallocation Algorithm with Genetic Algorithm Method in the Land Consolidation Projects
Authors: Tayfun Çay, Yaşar İnceyol, Abdurrahman Özbeyaz
Abstract:
Land reallocation is one of the most important steps in land consolidation projects. Many different models were proposed for land reallocation in the literature such as Fuzzy Logic, block priority based land reallocation and Spatial Decision Support Systems. A model including four parts is considered for automatic block reallocation with genetic algorithm method in land consolidation projects. These stages are preparing data tables for a project land, determining conditions and constraints of land reallocation, designing command steps and logical flow chart of reallocation algorithm and finally writing program codes of Genetic Algorithm respectively. In this study, we designed the first three steps of the considered model comprising four steps.Keywords: Genetic algorithm, land consolidation, landholding, land reallocation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1907118 Performance of Heterogeneous Autoregressive Models of Realized Volatility: Evidence from U.S. Stock Market
Authors: Petr Seďa
Abstract:
This paper deals with heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility (HAR-RV models) on high-frequency data of stock indices in the USA. Its aim is to capture the behavior of three groups of market participants trading on a daily, weekly and monthly basis and assess their role in predicting the daily realized volatility. The benefits of this work lies mainly in the application of heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility on stock indices in the USA with a special aim to analyze an impact of the global financial crisis on applied models forecasting performance. We use three data sets, the first one from the period before the global financial crisis occurred in the years 2006-2007, the second one from the period when the global financial crisis fully hit the U.S. financial market in 2008-2009 years, and the last period was defined over 2010-2011 years. The model output indicates that estimated realized volatility in the market is very much determined by daily traders and in some cases excludes the impact of those market participants who trade on monthly basis.Keywords: Global financial crisis, heterogeneous autoregressive model, in-sample forecast, realized volatility, U.S. stock market.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2477117 Artificial Neural Networks Modeling in Water Resources Engineering: Infrastructure and Applications
Authors: M. R. Mustafa, M. H. Isa, R. B. Rezaur
Abstract:
The use of artificial neural network (ANN) modeling for prediction and forecasting variables in water resources engineering are being increasing rapidly. Infrastructural applications of ANN in terms of selection of inputs, architecture of networks, training algorithms, and selection of training parameters in different types of neural networks used in water resources engineering have been reported. ANN modeling conducted for water resources engineering variables (river sediment and discharge) published in high impact journals since 2002 to 2011 have been examined and presented in this review. ANN is a vigorous technique to develop immense relationship between the input and output variables, and able to extract complex behavior between the water resources variables such as river sediment and discharge. It can produce robust prediction results for many of the water resources engineering problems by appropriate learning from a set of examples. It is important to have a good understanding of the input and output variables from a statistical analysis of the data before network modeling, which can facilitate to design an efficient network. An appropriate training based ANN model is able to adopt the physical understanding between the variables and may generate more effective results than conventional prediction techniques.Keywords: ANN, discharge, modeling, prediction, sediment,
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 5685116 Evaluating New Service Development Performance Based on Multigranular Linguistic Assessment
Authors: Wen-Pai Wang, Mei-Ching Tang
Abstract:
The service sector continues to grow and the percentage of GDP accounted for by service industries keeps increasing. The growth and importance of service to an economy is not just a phenomenon of advanced economies, service is now a majority of the world gross domestic products. However, the performance evaluation process of new service development problems generally involves uncertain and imprecise data. This paper presents a 2-tuple fuzzy linguistic computing approach to dealing with heterogeneous information and information loss problems while the processes of subjective evaluation integration. The proposed method based on group decision-making scenario to assist business managers in measuring performance of new service development manipulates the heterogeneity integration processes and avoids the information loss effectively.Keywords: Heterogeneity, Multigranular linguistic computing, New service development, Performance evaluation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1544115 Hybrid Modeling Algorithm for Continuous Tamil Speech Recognition
Authors: M. Kalamani, S. Valarmathy, M. Krishnamoorthi
Abstract:
In this paper, Fuzzy C-Means clustering with Expectation Maximization-Gaussian Mixture Model based hybrid modeling algorithm is proposed for Continuous Tamil Speech Recognition. The speech sentences from various speakers are used for training and testing phase and objective measures are between the proposed and existing Continuous Speech Recognition algorithms. From the simulated results, it is observed that the proposed algorithm improves the recognition accuracy and F-measure up to 3% as compared to that of the existing algorithms for the speech signal from various speakers. In addition, it reduces the Word Error Rate, Error Rate and Error up to 4% as compared to that of the existing algorithms. In all aspects, the proposed hybrid modeling for Tamil speech recognition provides the significant improvements for speechto- text conversion in various applications.
Keywords: Speech Segmentation, Feature Extraction, Clustering, HMM, EM-GMM, CSR.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2139114 Empirical and Indian Automotive Equity Portfolio Decision Support
Authors: P. Sankar, P. James Daniel Paul, Siddhant Sahu
Abstract:
A brief review of the empirical studies on the methodology of the stock market decision support would indicate that they are at a threshold of validating the accuracy of the traditional and the fuzzy, artificial neural network and the decision trees. Many researchers have been attempting to compare these models using various data sets worldwide. However, the research community is on the way to the conclusive confidence in the emerged models. This paper attempts to use the automotive sector stock prices from National Stock Exchange (NSE), India and analyze them for the intra-sectorial support for stock market decisions. The study identifies the significant variables and their lags which affect the price of the stocks using OLS analysis and decision tree classifiers.
Keywords: Indian Automotive Sector, Stock Market Decisions, Equity Portfolio Analysis, Decision Tree Classifiers, Statistical Data Analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2036113 Evaluation of Best-Fit Probability Distribution for Prediction of Extreme Hydrologic Phenomena
Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi
Abstract:
The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.
Keywords: Karkheh river, log pearson type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 882112 ANFIS Approach for Locating Faults in Underground Cables
Authors: Magdy B. Eteiba, Wael Ismael Wahba, Shimaa Barakat
Abstract:
This paper presents a fault identification, classification and fault location estimation method based on Discrete Wavelet Transform and Adaptive Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for medium voltage cable in the distribution system.
Different faults and locations are simulated by ATP/EMTP, and then certain selected features of the wavelet transformed signals are used as an input for a training process on the ANFIS. Then an accurate fault classifier and locator algorithm was designed, trained and tested using current samples only. The results obtained from ANFIS output were compared with the real output. From the results, it was found that the percentage error between ANFIS output and real output is less than three percent. Hence, it can be concluded that the proposed technique is able to offer high accuracy in both of the fault classification and fault location.
Keywords: ANFIS, Fault location, Underground Cable, Wavelet Transform.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2741111 A Multi-Criteria Evaluation Incorporating Linguistic Computing for Service Innovation Performance
Authors: Wen-Pai Wang
Abstract:
The growing influence of service industries has prompted greater attention being paid to service operations management. However, service managers often have difficulty articulating the veritable effects of their service innovation. Especially, the performance evaluation process of service innovation problems generally involves uncertain and imprecise data. This paper presents a 2-tuple fuzzy linguistic computing approach to dealing with heterogeneous information and information loss problems while the processes of subjective evaluation integration. The proposed method based on group decision-making scenario to assist business managers in measuring performance of service innovation manipulates the heterogeneity integration processes and avoids the information loss effectively.Keywords: Group decision-making, Heterogeneity, Linguisticcomputing, Multi-criteria, Service innovation
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1570