Search results for: Decision- making Criteria

Authors: N. Hussain, G. Jaffery, A.N. Sabri, S. Hasnain

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The main aim is to perform mutational analysis of CTLA4 gene Exon 1 in SLE patients. A total of 61 SLE patients fulfilling “American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria" and 61 controls were enrolled in this study. The region of CTLA4 gene exon 1 was amplified by using Step-down PCR technique. Extracted DNA of band 354 bp was sequenced to analyze mutations in the exon-1 of CTLA-4 gene. Further, protein sequences were identified from nucleotide sequences of CTLA4 Exon 1 by using Expasy software and through Blast P software it was found that CTLA4 protein sequences of Pakistani SLE patients were similar to that of Chinese SLE population. No variations were found after patients sequences were compared with that of the control sequence. Furthermore it was found that CTLA4 protein sequences of Pakistani SLE patients were similar to that of Chinese SLE population. Thus CTLA4 gene may not be responsible for an autoimmune disease SLE.

Keywords: American College of Rheumatology criteria, autoimmune disease, Cytotoxic T Lymphocyte Antigen-4, Polymerase Chain Reaction, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

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Authors: Ahmed Mateen, Zhu Qingsheng, Faisal Shahzad

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Requirement Engineering (RE) is a part being created for programming structure during the software development lifecycle. Software product line development is a new topic area within the domain of software engineering. It also plays important role in decision making and it is ultimately helpful in rising business environment for productive programming headway. Decisions are central to engineering processes and they hold them together. It is argued that better decisions will lead to better engineering. To achieve better decisions requires that they are understood in detail. In order to address the issues, companies are moving towards Software Product Line Engineering (SPLE) which helps in providing large varieties of products with minimum development effort and cost. This paper proposed a new framework for software product line and compared with other models. The results can help to understand the needs in SPL testing, by identifying points that still require additional investigation. In our future scenario, we will combine this model in a controlled environment with industrial SPL projects which will be the new horizon for SPL process management testing strategies.

Keywords: Requirements engineering, software product lines, scoping, process structure, domain specific language.

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Authors: Aleksandra Aleksandrovna Filimonova, Lev Sergeevich Kazarinov, Tatyana Aleksandrovna Barbasova

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A method of effective planning and control of industrial facility energy consumption is offered. The method allows optimally arranging the management and full control of complex production facilities in accordance with the criteria of minimal technical and economic losses at the forecasting control. The method is based on the optimal construction of the power efficiency characteristics with the prescribed accuracy. The problem of optimal designing of the forecasting model is solved on the basis of three criteria: maximizing the weighted sum of the points of forecasting with the prescribed accuracy; the solving of the problem by the standard principles at the incomplete statistic data on the basis of minimization of the regularized function; minimizing the technical and economic losses due to the forecasting errors.

Keywords: Energy consumption, energy efficiency, energy management system, forecasting model, power efficiency characteristics.

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou

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The decades after the end of the second War provide evidence that infrastructures investments contibute to economic development, on terms of productivity and income growth. In order to force productivity and increase competitiveness the financing of large transport infrastructure projects are on the top of the agenda in strategic planning process. Such a decision may take form some days to some decades and stakeholders as well as decision makers need tools in order to estimate the economic impact on natioanl economy of such an investment. The key question in such decisions is if the effects caused by the new infrastructure could be able to boost economic development on one hand, and create new jobs and activities on the other. This paper deals with the review of estimation of the mega transport infrastructure projects economic effects in economy.

Keywords: Economic impact, transport infrastructure, strategic planning.

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Authors: Dimitra Alexiou

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During the last 10 years, in spite of the economic crisis, the number of tourists arriving in Greece has increased, particularly during the tourist season from April to October. In this paper, the number of annual tourist arrivals is studied to explore their preferences with regard to the month of travel, the selected destinations, as well the amount of money spent. The collected data are processed with statistical methods, yielding numerical and graphical results. From the computation of statistical parameters and the forecasting with exponential smoothing, useful conclusions are arrived at that can be used by the Greek tourism authorities, as well as by tourist organizations, for planning purposes for the coming years. The results of this paper and the computed forecast can also be used for decision making by private tourist enterprises that are investing in Greece. With regard to the statistical methods, the method of Simple Exponential Smoothing of time series of data is employed. The search for a best forecast for 2017 and 2018 provides the value of the smoothing coefficient. For all statistical computations and graphics Microsoft Excel is used.

Keywords: Tourism, statistical methods, exponential smoothing, land spatial planning, economy, Microsoft Excel.

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Authors: Prateep Wajeetongratana

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This study investigates the management accountant’s roles that link with the creation of corporate shared value to enable more effective decision-making and improve the information needs of stakeholders. Mixed method is employed to collect using triangulation for credibility. A quantitative approach is employed to conduct a survey of 200 Thai companies providing annual reports in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The results of the study reveal that environmental and social data incorporated in a corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosure are based on the indicators of the Global Reporting Initiatives (GRI) at a statistically significant level of 0.01. Environmental and social indicators in CSR are associated with environmental and social data disclosed in the annual report to support stakeholders’ and the public’s interests that are addressed and show that a significant relationship between environmental and social in CSR disclosures and the information in annual reports is statistically significant at the 0.01 level.

Keywords: Corporate social responsibility, creating shared value, management accountant’s roles, stock exchange of Thailand.

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Authors: Nooshin Salari, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we propose a condition-based maintenance policy for multi-unit systems considering the existence of economic dependency among units. We consider a system composed of N identical units, where each unit deteriorates independently. Deterioration process of each unit is modeled as a three-state continuous time homogeneous Markov chain with two working states and a failure state. The average production rate of units varies in different working states and demand rate of the system is constant. Units are inspected at equidistant time epochs, and decision regarding performing maintenance is determined by the number of units in the failure state. If the total number of units in the failure state exceeds a critical level, maintenance is initiated, where units in failed state are replaced correctively and deteriorated state units are maintained preventively. Our objective is to determine the optimal number of failed units to initiate maintenance minimizing the long run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. A numerical example is developed to demonstrate the proposed policy and the comparison with the corrective maintenance policy is presented.

Keywords: Reliability, production, maintenance optimization, Semi-Markov Decision Process.

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Authors: Tetsuro Saeki, Yuichi Kato, Shoutarou Mizuno

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STRIM (Statistical Test Rule Induction Method) has been proposed as a method to effectively induct if-then rules from the decision table which is considered as a sample set obtained from the population of interest. Its usefulness has been confirmed by simulation experiments specifying rules in advance, and by comparison with conventional methods. However, scope for future development remains before STRIM can be applied to the analysis of real-world data sets. The first requirement is to determine the size of the dataset needed for inducting true rules, since finding statistically significant rules is the core of the method. The second is to examine the capacity of rule induction from datasets with contaminated attribute values created by missing data and noise, since real-world datasets usually contain such contaminated data. This paper examines the first problem theoretically, in connection with the rule length. The second problem is then examined in a simulation experiment, utilizing the critical size of dataset derived from the first step. The experimental results show that STRIM is highly robust in the analysis of datasets with contaminated attribute values, and hence is applicable to real-world data

Keywords: Rule induction, decision table, missing data, noise.

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Authors: Zhenhuan Zhu, David Mulvaney, Vassilios Chouliaras

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A new genetic algorithm, termed the 'optimum individual monogenetic genetic algorithm' (OIMGA), is presented whose properties have been deliberately designed to be well suited to hardware implementation. Specific design criteria were to ensure fast access to the individuals in the population, to keep the required silicon area for hardware implementation to a minimum and to incorporate flexibility in the structure for the targeting of a range of applications. The first two criteria are met by retaining only the current optimum individual, thereby guaranteeing a small memory requirement that can easily be stored in fast on-chip memory. Also, OIMGA can be easily reconfigured to allow the investigation of problems that normally warrant either large GA populations or individuals many genes in length. Local convergence is achieved in OIMGA by retaining elite individuals, while population diversity is ensured by continually searching for the best individuals in fresh regions of the search space. The results given in this paper demonstrate that both the performance of OIMGA and its convergence time are superior to those of a range of existing hardware GA implementations.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, genetic hardware, machinelearning.

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah, Huda M. Abdul Abbas

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Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.

Keywords: Short term load forecasting, prediction interval, type 2 fuzzy logic systems.

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Authors: Pedro Padilha Gonçalves, Doris C. C. K. Kowaltowski, Benjamin Cleveland

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Trends in education affect schooling, needing incorporation into design concepts to support desired learning processes with appropriate and stimulating environments. A design process for school architecture demands research, debates, reflections, and efficient decision-making methods. This paper presents research on evidence-based design, related to middle schools, based on a systematic literature review and the elaboration of a set of architectural design patterns, through a graphic translation of new concepts for classroom configurations, to support programming debates and the synthesis phase of design. The investigation resulted in nine patterns that configure the concepts of boundaries, flexibility, levels of openness, mindsets, neighborhoods, movement and interaction, territories, opportunities for learning, and sightlines for classrooms. The research is part of a continuous investigation of design methods, on contemporary school architecture to produce an architectural pattern matrix based on scientific information translated into an insightful graphic design language.

Keywords: School architecture, design process, design patterns, evidence-based design.

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Authors: Glenda Minguito, Jenith Banluta

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One of the critical aspects of humanitarian operations is the distribution of relief goods to an affected community. The common assumption is that relief goods are prepositioned during disasters which are not applicable in developing countries like the Philippines. During disasters, the on-the-ground government agencies and responders have to procure, sort, weigh and pack the relief goods. There is a need to review the relief goods preparation as it seriously affects the delivery of necessary aid for human survival. This study also identifies the ideal location of the assembly hub to minimize the distance to the affected community. This paper reveals that location and resources are dependent on the type of disasters encountered at the local level. The Center-of-Gravity method and Multiple Activity Chart were applied in the analysis.

Keywords: Humanitarian supply chain, location decision, resource allocation, local level.

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Authors: Elvan Ender, Murat Zencirkıran

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One of the most important criteria that increase the success of design in landscape architecture is the visual effect. The characteristics that affect visual appearance in plant design vary depending on the phenological periods of the plants. In plants, although different effects are observed in different periods of the year, this effect is felt most prominently in flowering periods. For this reason, knowing the flowering time, duration and flower characteristics should be considered as a factor increasing the success of plant design. In this study, flower characteristics of natural woody plants with attractive flowers have been examined. Because of the variability of these characteristics of plants in the region, consideration of these criteria in the planting design processes in the region may increase the success of the design. At the same time, when species selection is made considering the obtained data, visuality and sustainability of natural species can be possible in Bursa city with planting design.

Keywords: Bursa, flower characteristics, natural plants, planting design.

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Authors: Maziar A. Sharbafi, Caro Lucas, Aida Mohammadinejad, Mostafa Yaghobi

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The Combination of path planning and path following is the main purpose of this paper. This paper describes the developed practical approach to motion control of the MRL small size robots. An intelligent controller is applied to control omni-directional robots motion in simulation and real environment respectively. The Brain Emotional Learning Based Intelligent Controller (BELBIC), based on LQR control is adopted for the omni-directional robots. The contribution of BELBIC in improving the control system performance is shown as application of the emotional learning in a real world problem. Optimizing of the control effort can be achieved in this method too. Next the implicit communication method is used to determine the high level strategies and coordination of the robots. Some simple rules besides using the environment as a memory to improve the coordination between agents make the robots' decision making system. With this simple algorithm our team manifests a desirable cooperation.

Keywords: multi-agent systems (MAS), Emotional learning, MIMO system, BELBIC, LQR, Communication via environment

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Authors: K. N. Penna, J. P. English

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The destruction of the Juukan Gorge rock shelters in 2020 has catalysed impetus within Australian society for a significant change in engagement with Indigenous Peoples, and the approach to Indigenous cultural heritage, both within the Pilbara region and more broadly across Australia. Culture-based and people-centred approaches are inherent to inclusive sustainable development and Free, Prior, Informed Consent, outcomes encouraged by international and local recommendations on the human rights and cultural heritage preservation of Indigenous peoples. In this paper, we present an interpretive model of an evolved process for mining project development, incorporating culture-based and people-centred approaches, based on the Theory U system change method. The evolved process advocates a change in organisational mindset and culture, and a comprehensive understanding of Indigenous Peoples’ culture and values, as the foundations for increasing their influence and achieving mutually beneficial developments.

Keywords: Indigenous Engagement, mining industry, culture-based approach, people-centred approach, Theory U.

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Authors: Beata Czarnacka-Chrobot

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Majority of Business Software Systems (BSS) Development and Enhancement Projects (D&EP) fail to meet criteria of their effectiveness, what leads to the considerable financial losses. One of the fundamental reasons for such projects- exceptionally low success rate are improperly derived estimates for their costs and time. In the case of BSS D&EP these attributes are determined by the work effort, meanwhile reliable and objective effort estimation still appears to be a great challenge to the software engineering. Thus this paper is aimed at presenting the most important synthetic conclusions coming from the author-s own studies concerning the main factors of effective BSS D&EP work effort estimation. Thanks to the rational investment decisions made on the basis of reliable and objective criteria it is possible to reduce losses caused not only by abandoned projects but also by large scale of overrunning the time and costs of BSS D&EP execution.

Keywords: Benchmarking data, business software systems development and enhancement projects, effort estimation, software engineering economics, software functional size measurement.

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Authors: Rossi A. Hassad

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There is widespread emphasis on reform in the teaching of introductory statistics at the college level. Underpinning this reform is a consensus among educators and practitioners that traditional curricular materials and pedagogical strategies have not been effective in promoting statistical literacy, a competency that is becoming increasingly necessary for effective decision-making and evidence-based practice. This paper explains the historical context of, and rationale for reform-oriented teaching of introductory statistics (at the college level) in the health, social and behavioral sciences (evidence-based disciplines). A firm understanding and appreciation of the basis for change in pedagogical approach is important, in order to facilitate commitment to reform, consensus building on appropriate strategies, and adoption and maintenance of best practices. In essence, reform-oriented pedagogy, in this context, is a function of the interaction among content, pedagogy, technology, and assessment. The challenge is to create an appropriate balance among these domains.

Keywords: Reform-oriented, reform, introductory statistics, health, behavioral sciences, evidence-based, psychology, teaching, learning.

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Authors: Mohammad Taghi Taghavifard, Danial Mirheydari

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This paper suggests an algorithm for the evaluation and selection of suppliers. At the beginning, all the needed materials and services used by the organization were identified and categorized with regard to their nature by ABC method. Afterwards, in order to reduce risk factors and maximize the organization's profit, purchase strategies were determined. Then, appropriate criteria were identified for primary evaluation of suppliers applying to the organization. The output of this stage was a list of suppliers qualified by the organization to participate in its tenders. Subsequently, considering a material in particular, appropriate criteria on the ordering of the mentioned material were determined, taking into account the particular materials' specifications as well as the organization's needs. Finally, for the purpose of validation and verification of the proposed model, it was applied to Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC), the qualified suppliers of this Company are ranked by the means of a Hierarchical Fuzzy TOPSIS method. The obtained results show that the proposed algorithm is quite effective, efficient and easy to apply.

Keywords: ABC analysis, Hierarchical Fuzzy TOPSIS, Primary supplier evaluation, Purchasing strategy, supplier selection

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Authors: A. Hol

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Electronic mediums such as websites, feeds, blogs and social media sites are on a daily basis influencing our decision making, are improving our productivity and are shaping futures of many consumers and service/product providers. This research identifies that both customers and business providers heavily rely on smart phone applications. Based on this, mobile applications available on iTunes store were studied. It was identified that fruit and vegetable related applications used by consumers can broadly be categorized into purchase applications, diaries, tracking health applications, trip farm location and cooking applications. On the other hand, applications used by farmers can broadly be classified as: weather tracking, pests / fertilizer applications and general social media applications such as Facebook. To blur this farmer-consumer application divide, our research utilizes Context Specific eTransformation Framework and based on it identifies characteristic future consumer-farmer applications will need to have so that the current divide can be narrowed and consequently better farmerconsumer supply chain link established.

Keywords: Smart Phone Applications, SME, Farmers, Consumer, Fruit and Vegetable, Technology, Business Innovation.

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

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This paper presents a method for the optimal allocation of Distributed generation in distribution systems. In this paper, our aim would be optimal distributed generation allocation for voltage profile improvement and loss reduction in distribution network. Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used as the solving tool, which referring two determined aim; the problem is defined and objective function is introduced. Considering to fitness values sensitivity in genetic algorithm process, there is needed to apply load flow for decision-making. Load flow algorithm is combined appropriately with GA, till access to acceptable results of this operation. We used MATPOWER package for load flow algorithm and composed it with our Genetic Algorithm. The suggested method is programmed under MATLAB software and applied ETAP software for evaluating of results correctness. It was implemented on part of Tehran electricity distributing grid. The resulting operation of this method on some testing system is illuminated improvement of voltage profile and loss reduction indexes.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, Allocation, Voltage Profile, losses, Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Malek Makki

Abstract:

The main purpose of this research study is to assist non-profit organizations (NPOs) to better segment a group of least developing countries and to optimally target the most needier areas, so that the provided aids make positive and lasting differences. We applied international marketing and strategy approaches to segment a sub-group of candidates among a group of 151 countries identified by the UN-G77 list, and furthermore, we point out the areas of priorities. We use reliable and well known criteria on the basis of economics, geography, demography and behavioral. These criteria can be objectively estimated and updated so that a follow-up can be performed to measure the outcomes of any program. We selected 12 socio-economic criteria that complement each other: GDP per capita, GDP growth, industry value added, export per capita, fragile state index, corruption perceived index, environment protection index, ease of doing business index, global competitiveness index, Internet use, public spending on education, and employment rate. A weight was attributed to each variable to highlight the relative importance of each criterion within the country. Care was taken to collect the most recent available data from trusted well-known international organizations (IMF, WB, WEF, and WTO). Construct of equivalence was carried out to compare the same variables across countries. The combination of all these weighted estimated criteria provides us with a global index that represents the level of development per country. An absolute index that combines wars and risks was introduced to exclude or include a country on the basis of conflicts and a collapsing state. The final step applied to the included countries consists of a benchmarking method to select the segment of countries and the percentile of each criterion. The results of this study allowed us to exclude 16 countries for risks and security. We also excluded four countries because they lack reliable and complete data. The other countries were classified per percentile thru their global index, and we identified the needier and the areas where aids are highly required to help any NPO to prioritize the area of implementation. This new concept is based on defined, actionable, accessible and accurate variables by which NPO can implement their program and it can be extended to profit companies to perform their corporate social responsibility acts.

Keywords: Developing countries, International marketing, non-profit organization, segmentation.

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Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Jia-Shen Chen, Han-Hsi Liang, Cheng-Wu Chen, Yung-Shuen Shen

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The purpose of determining impact significance is to place value on impacts. Environmental impact assessment review is a process that judges whether impact significance is acceptable or not in accordance with the scientific facts regarding environmental, ecological and socio-economical impacts described in environmental impact statements (EIS) or environmental impact assessment reports (EIAR). The first aim of this paper is to summarize the criteria of significance evaluation from the past review results and accordingly utilize fuzzy logic to incorporate these criteria into scientific facts. The second aim is to employ data mining technique to construct an EIS or EIAR prediction model for reviewing results which can assist developers to prepare and revise better environmental management plans in advance. The validity of the previous prediction model proposed by authors in 2009 is 92.7%. The enhanced validity in this study can attain 100.0%.

Keywords: Environmental impact assessment review, impactsignificance, fuzzy logic, data mining, classification tree.

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Authors: G. Büyüközkan , O. Feyzioglu, Z. Vardaloglu

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Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) coordinates the various supply chain management activities including production and purchase planning, demand forecasting and inventory replenishment between supply chain trading partners. This study proposes a systematic way of analyzing CPFR supporting factors using fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) approach. FCMs have proven particularly useful for solving problems in which a number of decision variables and uncontrollable variables are causally interrelated. Hence the FCMs of CPFR are created to show the relationships between the factors that influence on effective implementation of CPFR in the supply chain.

Keywords: Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment, fuzzy cognitive map, information sharing, decision synchronization, incentive alignment.

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Authors: A. Elyousfi, A. Tamtaoui, E. Bouyakhf

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The H.264/AVC video coding standard contains a number of advanced features. Ones of the new features introduced in this standard is the multiple intramode prediction. Its function exploits directional spatial correlation with adjacent block for intra prediction. With this new features, intra coding of H.264/AVC offers a considerably higher improvement in coding efficiency compared to other compression standard, but computational complexity is increased significantly when brut force rate distortion optimization (RDO) algorithm is used. In this paper, we propose a new fast intra prediction mode decision method for the complexity reduction of H.264 video coding. for luma intra prediction, the proposed method consists of two step: in the first step, we make the RDO for four mode of intra 4x4 block, based the distribution of RDO cost of those modes and the idea that the fort correlation with adjacent mode, we select the best mode of intra 4x4 block. In the second step, we based the fact that the dominating direction of a smaller block is similar to that of bigger block, the candidate modes of 8x8 blocks and 16x16 macroblocks are determined. So, in case of chroma intra prediction, the variance of the chroma pixel values is much smaller than that of luma ones, since our proposed uses only the mode DC. Experimental results show that the new fast intra mode decision algorithm increases the speed of intra coding significantly with negligible loss of PSNR.

Keywords: Intra prediction, H264/AVC, video coding, encodercomplexity.

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Authors: Yah-Ling Hung

Abstract:

eHealth is undoubtedly emerging as a promising vehicle to provide information for individual self-care management. However, the accessing ability, reading strategies and navigating behavior between higher literacy users and lower literacy users are significantly different. Yet, ways to tailor audiences’ health literacy and develop appropriate eHealth to feed their need become a big challenge. The purpose of this study is to compare the educational effectiveness of eHealth to deliver health knowledge between higher literacy users and lower literacy users, thus establishing useful design strategies of eHealth for users with different level of health literacy. The study was implemented in four stages, the first of which developed a website as the testing media to introduce health care knowledge relating to children’s allergy. Secondly, a reliability and validity test was conducted to make sure that all of the questions in the questionnaire were good indicators. Thirdly, a pre-post knowledge test was conducted with 66 participants, 33 users with higher literacy and 33 users with lower literacy respectively. Finally, a usability evaluation survey was undertaken to explore the criteria used by users with different levels of health literacy to evaluate eHealth. The results demonstrated that the eHealth Intervention in both groups had a positive outcome. There was no significant difference between the effectiveness of eHealth intervention between users with higher literacy and users with lower literacy. However, the average mean of lower literacy group was marginally higher than the average mean of higher literacy group. The findings also showed that the criteria used to evaluate eHealth could be analyzed in terms of the quality of information, appearance, appeal and interaction, but the users with lower literacy have different evaluation criteria from those with higher literacy. This is an interdisciplinary research which proposes the sequential key steps that incorporate the planning, developing and accessing issues that need to be considered when designing eHealth for patients with varying degrees of health literacy.

Keywords: eHealth, health intervention, health literacy, usability evaluation.

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Authors: Mak Kaboudan

Abstract:

A multi-agent system is developed here to predict monthly details of the upcoming peak of the 24th solar magnetic cycle. While studies typically predict the timing and magnitude of cycle peaks using annual data, this one utilizes the unsmoothed monthly sunspot number instead. Monthly numbers display more pronounced fluctuations during periods of strong solar magnetic activity than the annual sunspot numbers. Because strong magnetic activities may cause significant economic damages, predicting monthly variations should provide different and perhaps helpful information for decision-making purposes. The multi-agent system developed here operates in two stages. In the first, it produces twelve predictions of the monthly numbers. In the second, it uses those predictions to deliver a final forecast. Acting as expert agents, genetic programming and neural networks produce the twelve fits and forecasts as well as the final forecast. According to the results obtained, the next peak is predicted to be 156 and is expected to occur in October 2011- with an average of 136 for that year.

Keywords: Computational techniques, discrete wavelet transformations, solar cycle prediction, sunspot numbers.

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Authors: M. Zezou

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This paper focuses on the design of a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) about Content Language Integrated Learning (CLIL) and more specifically about how teachers can use CLIL as an educational approach incorporating technology in their teaching as well. All the four weeks of the MOOC will be presented and a step-by-step analysis of each lesson will be offered. Additionally, the paper includes detailed lesson plans about CLIL lessons with proposed CLIL activities and games in which technology plays a central part. The MOOC is structured based on certain criteria, in order to ensure success, as well as a positive experience that the learners need to have after completing this MOOC. It addresses to all language teachers who would like to implement CLIL into their teaching. In other words, it presents the methodology that needs to be followed so as to successfully carry out a CLIL lesson and achieve the learning objectives set at the beginning of the course. Firstly, in this paper, it is very important to give the definitions of MOOCs and LMOOCs, as well as to explore the difference between a structure-based MOOC (xMOOC) and a connectivist MOOC (cMOOC) and present the criteria of a successful MOOC. Moreover, the notion of CLIL will be explored, as it is necessary to fully understand this concept before moving on to the design of the MOOC. Onwards, the four weeks of the MOOC will be introduced as well as lesson plans will be presented: The type of the activities, the aims of each activity and the methodology that teachers have to follow. Emphasis will be placed on the role of technology in foreign language learning and on the ways in which we can involve technology in teaching a foreign language. Final remarks will be made and a summary of the main points will be offered at the end.

Keywords: Content language integrated learning, connectivist massive open online course, lesson plan, language MOOC, massive open online course criteria, massive open online course, technology, structure-based massive open online course.

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Authors: Danilo López, Johana Hernández, Edwin Rivas

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The use of the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLPNN) technique is presented to estimate the future state of use of a licensed channel by primary users (PUs); this will be useful at the spectral decision stage in cognitive radio networks (CRN) to determine approximately in which time instants of future may secondary users (SUs) opportunistically use the spectral bandwidth to send data through the primary wireless network. To validate the results, sequences of occupancy data of channel were generated by simulation. The results show that the prediction percentage is greater than 60% in some of the tests carried out.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, neural network, prediction, primary user.

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Authors: Nasıf Ekiz, Tara Salih, Sibel Küçüköner, Kemal Fidanboylu

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Continuation of an active call is one of the most important quality measurements in the cellular systems. Handoff process enables a cellular system to provide such a facility by transferring an active call from one cell to another. Different approaches are proposed and applied in order to achieve better handoff service. The principal parameters used to evaluate handoff techniques are: forced termination probability and call blocking probability. The mechanisms such as guard channels and queuing handoff calls decrease the forced termination probability while increasing the call blocking probability. In this paper we present an overview about the issues related to handoff initiation and decision and discuss about different types of handoff techniques available in the literature.

Keywords: Handoff, Forced Termination Probability, Blocking probability, Handoff Initiation, Handoff Decision, Handoff Prioritization Schemes.

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Authors: S. H. Iranmanesh, L. Aliabadi, A. Mollajan

Abstract:

Integrated resilience engineering (IRE) is capable of returning banking systems to the normal state in extensive economic circumstances. In this study, information system of a large bank (with several branches) is assessed and optimized under severe economic conditions. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are employed to achieve the objective of this study. Nine IRE factors are considered to be the outputs, and a dummy variable is defined as the input of the DEA models. A standard questionnaire is designed and distributed among executive managers to be considered as the decision-making units (DMUs). Reliability and validity of the questionnaire is examined based on Cronbach's alpha and t-test. The most appropriate DEA model is determined based on average efficiency and normality test. It is shown that the proposed integrated design provides higher efficiency than the conventional RE design. Results of sensitivity and perturbation analysis indicate that self-organization, fault tolerance, and reporting culture respectively compose about 50 percent of total weight.

Keywords: Banking system, data envelopment analysis, DEA, integrated resilience engineering, IRE, performance evaluation, perturbation analysis.

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