Search results for: Military data networks

Authors: Dimitra Alexiou

Abstract:

In an urban area the location allocation of emergency services mobile units, such as ambulances, police patrol cars must be designed so as to achieve a prompt response to demand locations. In this paper the partition of a given urban network into distinct sub-networks is performed such that the vertices in each component are close and simultaneously the sums of the corresponding population in the sub-networks are almost uniform. The objective here is to position appropriately in each sub-network a mobile emergency unit in order to reduce the response time to the demands. A mathematical model in framework of graph theory is developed. In order to clarify the corresponding method a relevant numerical example is presented on a small network.

Keywords: Distances, Emergency Service, Graph Partition, location.

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Authors: Suresh S. Salankar, Balasaheb M. Patre

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Research into the problem of classification of sonar signals has been taken up as a challenging task for the neural networks. This paper investigates the design of an optimal classifier using a Multi layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP NN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM). Results obtained using sonar data sets suggest that SVM classifier perform well in comparison with well-known MLP NN classifier. An average classification accuracy of 91.974% is achieved with SVM classifier and 90.3609% with MLP NN classifier, on the test instances. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve for the proposed SVM classifier on test data set is found as 0.981183, which is very close to unity and this clearly confirms the excellent quality of the proposed classifier. The SVM classifier employed in this paper is implemented using kernel Adatron algorithm is seen to be robust and relatively insensitive to the parameter initialization in comparison to MLP NN.

Keywords: Classification, MLP NN, backpropagation algorithm, SVM, Receiver Operating Characteristics.

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Authors: Truong Quang Dang Khoa, Masahiro Nakagawa

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Chaos and fractals are novel fields of physics and mathematics showing up a new way of universe viewpoint and creating many ideas to solve several present problems. In this paper, a novel algorithm based on the chaotic sequence generator with the highest ability to adapt and reach the global optima is proposed. The adaptive ability of proposal algorithm is flexible in 2 steps. The first one is a breadth-first search and the second one is a depth-first search. The proposal algorithm is examined by 2 functions, the Camel function and the Schaffer function. Furthermore, the proposal algorithm is applied to optimize training Multilayer Neural Networks.

Keywords: learning and evolutionary computing, Chaos Optimization Algorithm, Artificial Neural Networks, nonlinear optimization, intelligent computational technologies.

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Authors: M. Lloret-Climent, J. Nescolarde-Selva

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases. For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in the immediate future.

Keywords: Attractor, invariant set, orbits, tourist variables.

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Authors: Bingquan Shen

Abstract:

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) have demonstrated their effectiveness in synthesizing 3D views of object instances at various viewpoints. Given the problem where one have limited viewpoints of a particular object for classification, we present a pose normalization architecture to transform the object to existing viewpoints in the training dataset before classification to yield better classification performance. We have demonstrated that this Pose Normalization Network (PNN) can capture the style of the target object and is able to re-render it to a desired viewpoint. Moreover, we have shown that the PNN improves the classification result for the 3D chairs dataset and ShapeNet airplanes dataset when given only images at limited viewpoint, as compared to a CNN baseline.

Keywords: Convolutional neural networks, object classification, pose normalization, viewpoint invariant.

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Authors: Gaetano Zazzaro, Angelo Martone, Roberto V. Montaquila, Luigi Pavone

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Seizure is the main factor that affects the quality of life of epileptic patients. The diagnosis of epilepsy, and hence the identification of epileptogenic zone, is commonly made by using continuous Electroencephalogram (EEG) signal monitoring. Seizure identification on EEG signals is made manually by epileptologists and this process is usually very long and error prone. The aim of this paper is to describe an automated method able to detect seizures in EEG signals, using knowledge discovery in database process and data mining methods and algorithms, which can support physicians during the seizure detection process. Our detection method is based on Artificial Neural Network classifier, trained by applying the multilayer perceptron algorithm, and by using a software application, called Training Builder that has been developed for the massive extraction of features from EEG signals. This tool is able to cover all the data preparation steps ranging from signal processing to data analysis techniques, including the sliding window paradigm, the dimensionality reduction algorithms, information theory, and feature selection measures. The final model shows excellent performances, reaching an accuracy of over 99% during tests on data of a single patient retrieved from a publicly available EEG dataset.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Data Mining, Electroencephalogram, Epilepsy, Feature Extraction, Seizure Detection, Signal Processing.

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Authors: Jiann-Ming Wu, Hsiao-Chang Chen, Chun-Chang Wu, Pei-Hsun Hsu

Abstract:

This work explores blind image deconvolution by recursive function approximation based on supervised learning of neural networks, under the assumption that a degraded image is linear convolution of an original source image through a linear shift-invariant (LSI) blurring matrix. Supervised learning of neural networks of radial basis functions (RBF) is employed to construct an embedded recursive function within a blurring image, try to extract non-deterministic component of an original source image, and use them to estimate hyper parameters of a linear image degradation model. Based on the estimated blurring matrix, reconstruction of an original source image from a blurred image is further resolved by an annealed Hopfield neural network. By numerical simulations, the proposed novel method is shown effective for faithful estimation of an unknown blurring matrix and restoration of an original source image.

Keywords: Blind image deconvolution, linear shift-invariant(LSI), linear image degradation model, radial basis functions (rbf), recursive function, annealed Hopfield neural networks.

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Authors: Alaa Al Hawari, Mohammad Khader, Tarek Zayed, Osama Moselhi

Abstract:

Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) is one of the most effective electromagnetic techniques for non-destructive non-invasive subsurface features investigation. Water leak from pipelines is the most common undesirable reason of potable water losses. Rapid detection of such losses is going to enhance the use of the Water Distribution Networks (WDN) and decrease threatens associated with water mains leaks. In this study, GPR approach was developed to detect leaks by implementing an appropriate imaging analyzing strategy based on image refinement, reflection polarity and reflection amplitude that would ease the process of interpreting the collected raw radargram image.

Keywords: Water Networks, Leakage, Water pipelines, Ground Penetrating Radar.

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Authors: Ivaylo I. Atanasov, Evelina N.Pencheva

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This paper presents a mark-up approach to service creation in Next Generation Networks. The approach allows deriving added value from network functions exposed by Parlay/OSA (Open Service Access) interfaces. With OSA interfaces service logic scripts might be executed both on callrelated and call-unrelated events. To illustrate the approach XMLbased language constructions for data and method definitions, flow control, time measuring and supervision and database access are given and an example of OSA application is considered.

Keywords: Service creation, mark-up approach.

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Authors: Fayez Mostafa Alhamoui, Adnan Hadi Mahdi Al- Helali

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The main issue in designing a wireless sensor network (WSN) is the finding of a proper routing protocol that complies with the several requirements of high reliability, short latency, scalability, low power consumption, and many others. This paper proposes a novel routing algorithm that complies with these design requirements. The new routing protocol divides the WSN into several subnetworks and each sub-network is divided into several clusters. This division is designed to reduce the number of radio transmission and hence decreases the power consumption. The network division may be changed dynamically to adapt with the network changes and allows the realization of the design requirements.

Keywords: Wireless sensor networks, routing protocols, ad hoc topology, cluster, sub-network, WSN design requirements.

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Authors: Xingyuan Qu, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem of stability criteria of neural networks (NNs) with two-additive time-varying delay compenents is investigated. The relationship between the time-varying delay and its lower and upper bounds is taken into account when estimating the upper bound of the derivative of Lyapunov functional. As a result, some improved delay stability criteria for NNs with two-additive time-varying delay components are proposed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Delay-dependent stability, time-varying delays, Lyapunov functional, linear matrix inequality (LMI).

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Authors: Daiming Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, by using Mawhin-s continuation theorem of coincidence degree and a method based on delay differential inequality, some sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence and global exponential stability of periodic solutions of cellular neural networks with distributed delays and impulses on time scales. The results of this paper generalized previously known results.

Keywords: Periodic solutions, global exponential stability, coincidence degree, M-matrix.

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Authors: R. Moosazadeh

Abstract:

Among the Ottomans, dress was one of the means of expression of the society to which an individual was belonged, and as much as the cloth of the dress, its color reflected the individual's class. Those cloths, and the type and color of the dresses that were worn in the court, were forbidden to ordinary people. In addition, whatever the person's position was, his/her clothes were changed according to that special time and position. The clothes that were worn on trips and ceremonies were different from ordinary clothes in everyday life. At the time of the Ottoman Empire and the old Turkey, the miniature forms, and historical manuscripts were an indicator of the time of that day, and each of them is used as a document from the history of that time for today. The method used in this study is descriptive-analytical and the data collection procedure has been done through library. In this article, the cloth, shape and form of the Kaftan is considered. Firstly, a summary of the history and an explanation of this style of dressing and the importance of it at that time are considered. Finally, by the completion of this research, some of the findings of this research are mentioned, such as the distinctive features of this style and the process of updating it to use it in the present era.

Keywords: Kaftan, cloth, Ottoman, Turkey.

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Authors: Fatma El-zahraa El-taher, Ayman Taha, Jane Courtney, Susan Mckeever

Abstract:

Understanding road networks plays an important role in navigation applications such as self-driving vehicles and route planning for individual journeys. Intersections of roads are essential components of road networks. Understanding the features of an intersection, from a simple T-junction to larger multi-road junctions is critical to decisions such as crossing roads or selecting safest routes. The identification and profiling of intersections from satellite images is a challenging task. While deep learning approaches offer state-of-the-art in image classification and detection, the availability of training datasets is a bottleneck in this approach. In this paper, a labelled satellite image dataset for the intersection recognition  problem is presented. It consists of 14,692 satellite images of Washington DC, USA. To support other users of the dataset, an automated download and labelling script is provided for dataset replication. The challenges of construction and fine-grained feature labelling of a satellite image dataset are examined, including the issue of how to address features that are spread across multiple images. Finally, the accuracy of detection of intersections in satellite images is evaluated.

Keywords: Satellite images, remote sensing images, data acquisition, autonomous vehicles, robot navigation, route planning, road intersections.

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Authors: J. P. Dubois, H. M. Chiu

Abstract:

In this paper, we study statistical multiplexing of VBR video in ATM networks. ATM promises to provide high speed realtime multi-point to central video transmission for telemedicine applications in rural hospitals and in emergency medical services. Video coders are known to produce variable bit rate (VBR) signals and the effects of aggregating these VBR signals need to be determined in order to design a telemedicine network infrastructure capable of carrying these signals. We first model the VBR video signal and simulate it using a generic continuous-data autoregressive (AR) scheme. We carry out the queueing analysis by the Fluid Approximation Model (FAM) and the Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP). The study has shown a trade off: multiplexing VBR signals reduces burstiness and improves resource utilization, however, the buffer size needs to be increased with an associated economic cost. We also show that the MMPP model and the Fluid Approximation model fit best, respectively, the cell region and the burst region. Therefore, a hybrid MMPP and FAM completely characterizes the overall performance of the ATM statistical multiplexer. The ramifications of this technology are clear: speed, reliability (lower loss rate and jitter), and increased capacity in video transmission for telemedicine. With migration to full IP-based networks still a long way to achieving both high speed and high quality of service, the proposed ATM architecture will remain of significant use for telemedicine.

Keywords: ATM, multiplexing, queueing, telemedicine, VBR.

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Authors: Nima Farkhondeh Jahromi, George Papaefthymiou, Lou van der Sluis

Abstract:

The incorporation of renewable energy sources for the sustainable electricity production is undertaking a more prominent role in electric power systems. Thus, it will be an indispensable incident that the characteristics of future power networks, their prospective stability for instance, get influenced by the imposed features of sustainable energy sources. One of the distinctive attributes of the sustainable energy sources is exhibiting the stochastic behavior. This paper investigates the impacts of this stochastic behavior on the small disturbance rotor angle stability in the upcoming electric power networks. Considering the various types of renewable energy sources and the vast variety of system configurations, the sensitivity analysis can be an efficient breakthrough towards generalizing the effects of new energy sources on the concept of stability. In this paper, the definition of small disturbance angle stability for future power systems and the iterative-stochastic way of its analysis are presented. Also, the effects of system parameters on this type of stability are described by performing a sensitivity analysis for an electric power test system.

Keywords: Power systems stability, Renewable energy sources, Stochastic behavior, Small disturbance rotor angle stability.

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Authors: Yan Yu, Wang Yu, Chen Xintong, Liu Yi, Zhang Yanzhong, Wang Yanji, Chen Xingyu, Zhang Miaocheng, Tong Yi

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Neuromorphic computing based on spiking neural networks (SNNs) has emerged as a promising avenue for building the next generation of intelligent computing systems. Owing to their high-density integration, low power, and outstanding nonlinearity, memristors have attracted emerging attention on achieving SNNs. However, fabricating a low-power and robust memristor-based spiking neuron without extra electrical components is still a challenge for brain-inspired systems. In this work, we demonstrate a TiO2-based threshold switching (TS) memristor to emulate a leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) neuron without auxiliary circuits, used to realize single layer fully connected (FC) SNNs. Moreover, our TiO2-based resistive switching (RS) memristors realize spiking-time-dependent-plasticity (STDP), originating from the Ag diffusion-based filamentary mechanism. This work demonstrates that TiO2-based memristors may provide an efficient method to construct hardware neuromorphic computing systems.

Keywords: Leaky integrate-and-fire, memristor, spiking neural networks, spiking-time-dependent-plasticity.

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Authors: C. Iraklis, G. Evmiridis, A. Iraklis

Abstract:

Renewable energy sources and distributed power generation units already have an important role in electrical power generation. A mixture of different technologies penetrating the electrical grid, adds complexity in the management of distribution networks. High penetration of distributed power generation units creates node over-voltages, huge power losses, unreliable power management, reverse power flow and congestion. This paper presents an optimization algorithm capable of reducing congestion and power losses, both described as a function of weighted sum. Two factors that describe congestion are being proposed. An upgraded selective particle swarm optimization algorithm (SPSO) is used as a solution tool focusing on the technique of network reconfiguration. The upgraded SPSO algorithm is achieved with the addition of a heuristic algorithm specializing in reduction of power losses, with several scenarios being tested. Results show significant improvement in minimization of losses and congestion while achieving very small calculation times.

Keywords: Congestion, distribution networks, loss reduction, particle swarm optimization, smart grid.

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Authors: P.S. Prakash, S. Selvan

Abstract:

Quality of Service (QoS) Routing aims to find path between source and destination satisfying the QoS requirements which efficiently using the network resources and underlying routing algorithm and to fmd low-cost paths that satisfy given QoS constraints. One of the key issues in providing end-to-end QoS guarantees in packet networks is determining feasible path that satisfies a number of QoS constraints. We present a Optimized Multi- Constrained Routing (OMCR) algorithm for the computation of constrained paths for QoS routing in computer networks. OMCR applies distance vector to construct a shortest path for each destination with reference to a given optimization metric, from which a set of feasible paths are derived at each node. OMCR is able to fmd feasible paths as well as optimize the utilization of network resources. OMCR operates with the hop-by-hop, connectionless routing model in IP Internet and does not create any loops while fmding the feasible paths. Nodes running OMCR not necessarily maintaining global view of network state such as topology, resource information and routing updates are sent only to neighboring nodes whereas its counterpart link-state routing method depend on complete network state for constrained path computation and that incurs excessive communication overhead.

Keywords: QoS Routing, Optimization, feasible path, multiple constraints.

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Authors: Hyoup-Sang Yoon

Abstract:

The quality of video transmitted by mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs) can be influenced by several factors, including protocol layers; parameter settings of each protocol. In this paper, we are concerned with understanding the functional relationship between these influential factors and objective video quality in MANETs. We illustrate a systematic statistical design of experiments (DOE) strategy can be used to analyze MANET parameters and performance. Using a 2^k factorial design, we quantify the main and interactive effects of 7 factors on a response metric (i.e., mean opinion score (MOS) calculated by PSNR with Evalvid package) we then develop a first-order linear regression model between the influential factors and the performance metric.

Keywords: Evalvid, full factorial design, mobile ad hoc networks, ns-2.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Roma Jaswal, Sandeep Khimta, Shailendra Singh

Abstract:

As the majority of faults are found in a few of its modules so there is a need to investigate the modules that are affected severely as compared to other modules and proper maintenance need to be done in time especially for the critical applications. As, Neural networks, which have been already applied in software engineering applications to build reliability growth models predict the gross change or reusability metrics. Neural networks are non-linear sophisticated modeling techniques that are able to model complex functions. Neural network techniques are used when exact nature of input and outputs is not known. A key feature is that they learn the relationship between input and output through training. In this present work, various Neural Network Based techniques are explored and comparative analysis is performed for the prediction of level of need of maintenance by predicting level severity of faults present in NASA-s public domain defect dataset. The comparison of different algorithms is made on the basis of Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and Accuracy Values. It is concluded that Generalized Regression Networks is the best algorithm for classification of the software components into different level of severity of impact of the faults. The algorithm can be used to develop model that can be used for identifying modules that are heavily affected by the faults.

Keywords: Neural Network, Software faults, Software Metric.

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Authors: H. Khorashadi-Zadeh, M. R. Aghaebrahimi

Abstract:

A novel application of neural network approach to fault classification and fault location of Medium voltage cables is demonstrated in this paper. Different faults on a protected cable should be classified and located correctly. This paper presents the use of neural networks as a pattern classifier algorithm to perform these tasks. The proposed scheme is insensitive to variation of different parameters such as fault type, fault resistance, and fault inception angle. Studies show that the proposed technique is able to offer high accuracy in both of the fault classification and fault location tasks.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, cable, fault location andfault classification.

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Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Ken Yeh, Cheng-Wu Chen, Han-Hsi Liang

Abstract:

This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) as a higher level of health risk assessment for a dumping site of lead battery smelter factory. On the basis of the epidemiological studies, the actual hospital attendance records and expert experiences, the BBN is capable of capturing the probabilistic relationships between the hazardous substances and their adverse health effects, and accordingly inferring the morbidity of the adverse health effects. The provision of the morbidity rates of the related diseases is more informative and can alleviate the drawbacks of conventional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian belief networks, lead battery smelter factory, health risk assessment.

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Authors: Victor Bodell, Lukas Ekstrom, Somayeh Aghanavesi

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Fuel consumption (FC) is one of the key factors in determining expenses of operating a heavy-duty vehicle. A customer may therefore request an estimate of the FC of a desired vehicle. The modular design of heavy-duty vehicles allows their construction by specifying the building blocks, such as gear box, engine and chassis type. If the combination of building blocks is unprecedented, it is unfeasible to measure the FC, since this would first r equire the construction of the vehicle. This paper proposes a machine learning approach to predict FC. This study uses around 40,000 vehicles specific and o perational e nvironmental c onditions i nformation, such as road slopes and driver profiles. A ll v ehicles h ave d iesel engines and a mileage of more than 20,000 km. The data is used to investigate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms Linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Artificial n eural n etworks (ANN) in predicting fuel consumption for heavy-duty vehicles. Performance of the algorithms is evaluated by reporting the prediction error on both simulated data and operational measurements. The performance of the algorithms is compared using nested cross-validation and statistical hypothesis testing. The statistical evaluation procedure finds that ANNs have the lowest prediction error compared to LR and KNN in estimating fuel consumption on both simulated and operational data. The models have a mean relative prediction error of 0.3% on simulated data, and 4.2% on operational data.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, fuel consumption, machine learning, regression, statistical tests.

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Authors: S. Vidhya, S. Sarumathi, N. Shanthi

Abstract:

Over the past era, there have been a lot of efforts and studies are carried out in growing proficient tools for performing various tasks in big data. Recently big data have gotten a lot of publicity for their good reasons. Due to the large and complex collection of datasets it is difficult to process on traditional data processing applications. This concern turns to be further mandatory for producing various tools in big data. Moreover, the main aim of big data analytics is to utilize the advanced analytic techniques besides very huge, different datasets which contain diverse sizes from terabytes to zettabytes and diverse types such as structured or unstructured and batch or streaming. Big data is useful for data sets where their size or type is away from the capability of traditional relational databases for capturing, managing and processing the data with low-latency. Thus the out coming challenges tend to the occurrence of powerful big data tools. In this survey, a various collection of big data tools are illustrated and also compared with the salient features.

Keywords: Big data, Big data analytics, Business analytics, Data analysis, Data visualization, Data discovery.

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Authors: Mohamed Idris S. Abozaed, Suliman Mohamed Elrajoubi

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Researches and concerns in power quality gained significant momentum in the field of power electronics systems over the last two decades globally. This sudden increase in the number of concerns over power quality problems is a result of the huge increase in the use of non-linear loads. In this paper, power quality evaluation of some distribution networks at Misurata - Libya has been done using a power quality and energy analyzer (Fluke 437 Series II). The results of this evaluation are used to minimize the problems of power quality. The analysis shows the main power quality problems that exist and the level of awareness of power quality issues with the aim of generating a start point which can be used as guidelines for researchers and end users in the field of power systems.

Keywords: Power Quality Disturbances, Power Quality Evaluation, Statistical Analysis.

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Authors: M. Saravanan, M. Madheswaran

Abstract:

Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) clustering architecture enables features like network scalability, communication overhead reduction, and fault tolerance. After clustering, aggregated data is transferred to data sink and reducing unnecessary, redundant data transfer. It reduces nodes transmitting, and so saves energy consumption. Also, it allows scalability for many nodes, reduces communication overhead, and allows efficient use of WSN resources. Clustering based routing methods manage network energy consumption efficiently. Building spanning trees for data collection rooted at a sink node is a fundamental data aggregation method in sensor networks. The problem of determining Cluster Head (CH) optimal number is an NP-Hard problem. In this paper, we combine cluster based routing features for cluster formation and CH selection and use Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) for intra-cluster communication. The proposed method is based on optimizing MST using Simulated Annealing (SA). In this work, normalized values of mobility, delay, and remaining energy are considered for finding optimal MST. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in improving the packet delivery ratio and reducing the end to end delay.

Keywords: Wireless sensor network, clustering, minimum spanning tree, genetic algorithm, low energy adaptive clustering hierarchy, simulated annealing.

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Authors: B. S. Yew, B. L. Ong, R. B. Ahmad

Abstract:

A study on the performance of TCP Vegas versus different TCP variants in homogeneous and heterogeneous wired networks are performed via simulation experiment using network simulator (ns-2). This performance evaluation prepared a comparison medium for the performance evaluation of enhanced-TCP Vegas in wired network and for wireless network. In homogeneous network, the performance of TCP Tahoe, TCP Reno, TCP NewReno, TCP Vegas and TCP SACK are analyzed. In heterogeneous network, the performances of TCP Vegas against TCP variants are analyzed. TCP Vegas outperforms other TCP variants in homogeneous wired network. However, TCP Vegas achieves unfair throughput in heterogeneous wired network.

Keywords: TCP Vegas, Homogeneous, Heterogeneous, WiredNetwork.

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Authors: Steffen C. Eickemeyer, Tim Borcherding, Peter Nyhuis, Hannover

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Planning capacities when regenerating complex investment goods involves particular challenges in that the planning is subject to a large degree of uncertainty regarding load information. Using information fusion – by applying Bayesian Networks – a method is being developed for forecasting the anticipated expenditures (human labor, tool and machinery utilization, time etc.) for regenerating a good. The generated forecasts then later serve as a tool for planning capacities and ensure a greater stability in the planning processes.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, capacity planning, complex investment goods, damages library, forecasting, information fusion, regeneration.

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Authors: Semanur Soyyiğit Kaya, Ercan Eren

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Energy has a prominent role for development of nations. Countries which have energy resources also have strategic power in the international trade of energy since it is essential for all stages of production in the economy. Thus, it is important for countries to analyze the weaknesses and strength of the system. On the other side, international trade is one of the fields that are analyzed as a complex network via network analysis. Complex network is one of the tools to analyze complex systems with heterogeneous agents and interaction between them. A complex network consists of nodes and the interactions between these nodes. Total properties which emerge as a result of these interactions are distinct from the sum of small parts (more or less) in complex systems. Thus, standard approaches to international trade are superficial to analyze these systems. Network analysis provides a new approach to analyze international trade as a network. In this network, countries constitute nodes and trade relations (export or import) constitute edges. It becomes possible to analyze international trade network in terms of high degree indicators which are specific to complex networks such as connectivity, clustering, assortativity/disassortativity, centrality, etc. In this analysis, international trade of crude oil and coal which are types of fossil fuel has been analyzed from 2005 to 2014 via network analysis. First, it has been analyzed in terms of some topological parameters such as density, transitivity, clustering etc. Afterwards, fitness to Pareto distribution has been analyzed via Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Finally, weighted HITS algorithm has been applied to the data as a centrality measure to determine the real prominence of countries in these trade networks. Weighted HITS algorithm is a strong tool to analyze the network by ranking countries with regards to prominence of their trade partners. We have calculated both an export centrality and an import centrality by applying w-HITS algorithm to the data. As a result, impacts of the trading countries have been presented in terms of high-degree indicators.

Keywords: Complex network approach, fossil fuel, international trade, network theory.

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