Search results for: Effective summation of series

Authors: Ji-Hye Lee, Jongdeok Kim

Abstract:

This research investigates the use of digital technology namely interactive multimedia in effective art education provided by museum. Several multimedia experience examples created for art education are study case subjected to assistance audiences- learning within the context of existing theory in the field of interactive multimedia.

Keywords: E-learning, Fine Arts, Interactivity, Multimedia

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Authors: H. R. Khodaei, M. Moradi, A. H. Tajik

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The type of foundation commonly used today for berthing dolphins is a set of tubular steel piles with large diameters, which are known as monopiles. The design of these monopiles is based on the theories related with laterally loaded piles. One of the most common methods to analyze and design the piles subjected to lateral loads is the p-y curves. In the present study, centrifuge tests are conducted in order to obtain the p-y curves. Series of tests were designed in order to investigate the scaling laws in the centrifuge for monotonic loading. Also, two important parameters, the embedded depth L of the pile in the soil and free length e of the pile, as well as their ratios were studied via five experimental tests. Finally, the p-y curves of API are presented to be compared with the curves obtained from the tests so that the differences could be demonstrated. The results show that the p-y curves proposed by API highly overestimate the lateral load bearing capacity. It suggests that these curves need correction and modification for each site as the soil conditions change.

Keywords: Centrifuge modeling, monopile, lateral loading, p-y curves.

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Authors: V. R. Ahire, A. Kumar, B. N. Pandey, K. P. Mishra, G. R. Kulkarni

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Radiation therapy is an effective vital strategy used globally in the treatment of cervical cancer. However, radiation efficacy principally depends on the radiosensitivity of the tumor, and not all patient exhibit significant response to irradiation. A radiosensitive tumor is easier to cure than a radioresistant tumor which later advances to local recurrence and metastasis. Herbal polyphenols are gaining attention for exhibiting radiosensitization through various signaling. Current work focuses to study the radiosensitization effect of ellagic acid (EA), on HeLa cells. EA intermediated radiosensitization of HeLa cells was due to the induction γ-H2AX foci formation, G1 phase cell cycle arrest, and loss of reproductive potential, growth inhibition, drop in the mitochondrial membrane potential and protein expression studies that eventually induced apoptosis. Irradiation of HeLa in presence of EA (10 μM) to doses of 2 and 4 Gy γ-radiation produced marked tumor cytotoxicity. EA also demonstrated radio-protective effect on normal cell, NIH3T3 and aided recovery from the radiation damage. Our results advocate EA to be an effective adjuvant for improving cancer radiotherapy as it displays striking tumor cytotoxicity and reduced normal cell damage instigated by irradiation.

Keywords: Apoptotic radiosensitivity, ellagic acid, mitochondrial potential, cell-cycle arrest.

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Authors: R.Mohamad Idris, A.Khairuddin, M.W.Mustafa

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In this paper, a novel method using Bees Algorithm is proposed to determine the optimal allocation of FACTS devices for maximizing the Available Transfer Capability (ATC) of power transactions between source and sink areas in the deregulated power system. The algorithm simultaneously searches the FACTS location, FACTS parameters and FACTS types. Two types of FACTS are simulated in this study namely Thyristor Controlled Series Compensator (TCSC) and Static Var Compensator (SVC). A Repeated Power Flow with FACTS devices including ATC is used to evaluate the feasible ATC value within real and reactive power generation limits, line thermal limits, voltage limits and FACTS operation limits. An IEEE30 bus system is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm as an optimization tool to enhance ATC. A Genetic Algorithm technique is used for validation purposes. The results clearly indicate that the introduction of FACTS devices in a right combination of location and parameters could enhance ATC and Bees Algorithm can be efficiently used for this kind of nonlinear integer optimization.

Keywords: ATC, Bees Algorithm, TCSC, SVC

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Authors: Ivo Jánský, Milan Rippel

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The paper evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004 and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC, FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the ARMA processes with up to two lags and variance with one of GARCH, EGARCH or TARCH processes with up to two lags. The models are estimated on the data from the in-sample period and their forecasting accuracy is evaluated on the out-of-sample data, which are more volatile. The main aim of the paper is to test whether a model estimated on data with lower volatility can be used in periods with higher volatility. The evaluation is based on the conditional coverage test and is performed on each stock index separately. The primary result of the paper is that the volatility is best modelled using a GARCH process and that an ARMA process pattern cannot be found in analyzed time series.

Keywords: VaR, risk analysis, conditional volatility, garch, egarch, tarch, moving average process, autoregressive process

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Ibrahim Dauda Adagye

Abstract:

Effective internal control system in the bursary unit of tertiary educational institutions is geared toward achieving quality teaching, learning and research environment and as well assist the management of the institutions, particularly when decisions are to be made. While internal control system exists in all institutions, the outlined objectives above are far from being achieved. The paper therefore assesses the effectiveness of internal control system in tertiary educational institutions in Nasarawa State, Nigeria with specific focus on the Nasarawa State Polytechnic, Lafia. The study is survey, hence a simple closed ended questionnaire was developed and administered to a sample of twenty seven (27) member staff from the Bursary and the Internal audit unit of the Nasarawa State Polytechnic, Lafia so as to obtain data for analysis purposes and to test the study hypothesis. Responses from the questionnaire were analysed using a simple percentage and chi square. Findings shows that the right people are not assigned to the right job in the department, budget, and management accounting were never used in the institution’s operations and checking of subordinate by their superior officers is not regular. This renders the current internal control structure of the Polytechnic as ineffective and weak. The paper therefore recommends that: transparency should be seen as significant, as the institution work toward meeting its objectives, it therefore means that the right staff be assigned the right job and regular checking of the subordinates by their superiors be ensued.

Keywords: Bursary unit, efficiency, Internal control, tertiary educational institutions.

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Authors: S. Golmohammadi, M. Noorian Bidgoli

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Tunneling progress is a key parameter in the blasting method of tunneling. Taking measures to enhance tunneling advance can limit the progress distance without a supporting system, subsequently reducing or eliminating the risk of damage. This paper focuses on modeling tunneling progress using three main groups of parameters (tunneling geometry, blasting pattern, and rock mass specifications) based on the Rock Engineering Systems (RES) methodology. In the proposed models, four main effective parameters on tunneling progress are considered as inputs (RMR, Q-system, Specific charge of blasting, Area), with progress as the output. Data from 86 blasts conducted at the tailrace tunnel in the Azad Dam, western Iran, were used to evaluate the progress value for each blast. The results indicated that, for the 86 blasts, the progress of the estimated model aligns mostly with the measured progress. This paper presents a method for building the interaction matrix (statistical base) of the RES model. Additionally, a comparison was made between the results of the new RES-based model and a Multi-Linear Regression (MLR) analysis model. In the RES-based model, the effective parameters are RMR (35.62%), Q (28.6%), q (specific charge of blasting) (20.35%), and A (15.42%), respectively, whereas for MLR analysis, the main parameters are RMR, Q (system), q, and A. These findings confirm the superior performance of the RES-based model over the other proposed models.

Keywords: Rock Engineering Systems, tunneling progress, Multi Linear Regression, Specific charge of blasting.

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Authors: Ryad Zemouri, Paul Ciprian Patic

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An adaptive software reliability prediction model using evolutionary connectionist approach based on Recurrent Radial Basis Function architecture is proposed. Based on the currently available software failure time data, Fuzzy Min-Max algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the k Gaussian nodes. The corresponding optimized neural network architecture is iteratively and dynamically reconfigured in real-time as new actual failure time data arrives. The performance of our proposed approach has been tested using sixteen real-time software failure data. Numerical results show that our proposed approach is robust across different software projects, and has a better performance with respect to next-steppredictability compared to existing neural network model for failure time prediction.

Keywords: Neural network, Prediction error, Recurrent RadialBasis Function Network, Reliability prediction.

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Authors: Sheikh Muhammad Azam, Masood-ur-Rehman, Adnan Khalid Bhatti, Nadeem Daudpota

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Very Large and/or computationally complex optimization problems sometimes require parallel or highperformance computing for achieving a reasonable time for computation. One of the most popular and most complicate problems of this family is “Traveling Salesman Problem". In this paper we have introduced a Branch & Bound based algorithm for the solution of such complicated problems. The main focus of the algorithm is to solve the “symmetric traveling salesman problem". We reviewed some of already available algorithms and felt that there is need of new algorithm which should give optimal solution or near to the optimal solution. On the basis of the use of logarithmic sampling, it was found that the proposed algorithm produced a relatively optimal solution for the problem and results excellent performance as compared with the traditional algorithms of this series.

Keywords: Parallel execution, symmetric traveling salesman problem, branch and bound algorithm, logarithmic sampling.

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Authors: Ki-Jin Kim, Sanghoon Park, K. H. Ahn

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A way of generating millimeter wave I/Q signal using inductive resonator matched poly-phase filter is suggested. Normally the poly-phase filter generates quite accurate I/Q phase and magnitude but the loss of the filter is considerable due to series connection of passive RC components. This loss term directly increases system noise figure when the poly-phase filter is used in RF Front-end. The proposed matching method eliminates above mentioned loss and in addition provides gain on the passive filter. The working algorithm is illustrated by mathematical analysis. The generated I/Q signal is used in implementing millimeter wave phase shifter for the 60 GHz communication system to verify its effectiveness. The circuit is fabricated in 90 nm TSMC RF CMOS process under 1.2 V supply voltage. The measurement results showed that the suggested method improved gain by 6.5 dB and noise by 2.3 dB. The summary of the proposed I/Q generation is compared with previous works.

Keywords: Millimeter Wave Circuits, Local Distribution, I/Q Generator.

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Authors: Sidhartha Panda, N. P. Padhy

Abstract:

The application of a Static Synchronous Series Compensator (SSSC) controller to improve the transient stability performance of a power system is thoroughly investigated in this paper. The design problem of SSSC controller is formulated as an optimization problem and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) Technique is employed to search for optimal controller parameters. By minimizing the time-domain based objective function, in which the deviation in the oscillatory rotor angle of the generator is involved; transient stability performance of the system is improved. The proposed controller is tested on a weakly connected power system subjected to different severe disturbances. The non-linear simulation results are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed controller and its ability to provide efficient damping of low frequency oscillations. It is also observed that the proposed SSSC controller improves greatly the voltage profile of the system under severe disturbances.

Keywords: Particle swarm optimization, transient stability, power system oscillations, SSSC.

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Authors: Lae-Jeong Park

Abstract:

The paper presents a method that utilizes figure-ground color segmentation to extract effective global feature in terms of false positive reduction in the head-shoulder detection. Conventional detectors that rely on local features such as HOG due to real-time operation suffer from false positives. Color cue in an input image provides salient information on a global characteristic which is necessary to alleviate the false positives of the local feature based detectors. An effective approach that uses figure-ground color segmentation has been presented in an effort to reduce the false positives in object detection. In this paper, an extended version of the approach is presented that adopts separate multipart foregrounds instead of a single prior foreground and performs the figure-ground color segmentation with each of the foregrounds. The multipart foregrounds include the parts of the head-shoulder shape and additional auxiliary foregrounds being optimized by a search algorithm. A classifier is constructed with the feature that consists of a set of the multiple resulting segmentations. Experimental results show that the presented method can discriminate more false positive than the single prior shape-based classifier as well as detectors with the local features. The improvement is possible because the presented approach can reduce the false positives that have the same colors in the head and shoulder foregrounds.

Keywords: Pedestrian detection, color segmentation, false positives, feature extraction.

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Authors: Y. Bhatt, N. Ghosh, N. Tiwari

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Acreage response function are modeled taking account of expected harvest prices, weather related variables and other non-price variables allowing for partial adjustment possibility. At the outset, based on the literature on price expectation formation, we explored suitable formulations for estimating the farmer’s expected prices. Assuming that farmers form expectations rationally, the prices of food and biofuel crops are modeled using time-series methods for possible ARCH/GARCH effects to account for volatility. The prices projected on the basis of the models are then inserted to proxy for the expected prices in the acreage response functions. Food crop acreages in different growing states are found sensitive to their prices relative to those of one or more of the biofuel crops considered. The required percentage improvement in food crop yields is worked to offset the acreage loss.

Keywords: Acreage response function, biofuel, food security, sustainable development.

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Authors: Jeff Letcher, Dennis Tierney, Haider Raad

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Antennas are devices for transmitting and/or receiving signals which make them a necessary component of any wireless system. In this paper, a thermal deposition technique is utilized as a method to fabricate antenna structures on substrates. Thin-film deposition is achieved by evaporating a source material (metals in our case) in a vacuum which allows vapor particles to travel directly to the target substrate which is encased with a mask that outlines the desired structure. The material then condenses back to solid state. This method is used in comparison to screen printing, chemical etching, and ink jet printing to indicate advantages and disadvantages to the method. The antenna created undergoes various testing of frequency ranges, conductivity, and a series of flexing to indicate the effectiveness of the thermal deposition technique. A single band antenna that is operated at 2.45 GHz intended for wearable and flexible applications was successfully fabricated through this method and tested. It is concluded that thermal deposition presents a feasible technique of producing such antennas.

Keywords: Thermal deposition, wearable antennas, Bluetooth technology, flexible electronics.

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Authors: M. F. R. Zuthi, H. H. Ngo, W. S. Guo, T. T. Nguyen

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A novel sponge submerged membrane bioreactor (SSMBR) was developed to effectively remove organics and nutrients from wastewater. Sponge is introduced within the SSMBR as a medium for the attached growth of biomass. This paper evaluates the effects of new and acclimatized sponges for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) removal from wastewater at different mixed liquor suspended solids- (MLSS) concentration of the sludge. It was observed in a series of experimental studies that the acclimatized sponge performed better than the new sponge whilst the optimum DOC removal could be achieved at 10g/L of MLSS with the acclimatized sponge. Moreover, the paper analyses the relationships between the MLSSsponge/MLSSsludge and the DOC removal efficiency of SSMBR. The results showed a non-linear relationship between the biomass parameters of the sponge and the sludge, and the DOC removal efficiency of SSMBR. A second-order polynomial function could reasonably represent these relationships.

Keywords: Acclimatization, Dissolved organic carbon, Mathematical model, Sponge submerged membrane bioreactor.

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Authors: Chin-Yu Lee, Iau-Teh Wang

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The mountain road slope failures triggered by earthquake activities and torrential rain namely to create the disaster. Province Road No. 24 is a main route to the Wutai Township. The area of the study is located at the mileages between 46K and 47K along the road. However, the road has been suffered frequent damages as a result of landslide and slope failures during typhoon seasons. An understanding of the sliding behaviors in the area appears to be necessary. Slope failures triggered by earthquake activities and heavy rainfalls occur frequently. The study is to understand the mechanism of slope failures and to look for the way to deal with the situation. In order to achieve these objectives, this paper is based on theoretical and structural geology data interpretation program to assess the potential slope sliding behavior. The study showed an intimate relationship between the landslide behavior of the slopes and the stratum materials, based on structural geology analysis method to analysis slope stability and finds the slope safety coefficient to predict the sites of destroyed layer. According to the case study and parameter analyses results, the slope mainly slips direction compared to the site located in the southeast area. Find rainfall to result in the rise of groundwater level is main reason of the landslide mechanism. Future need to set up effective horizontal drain at corrective location, that can effective restrain mountain road slope failures and increase stability of slope.

Keywords: slope stability analysis, Stereographic Projection, wedge Failure.

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Authors: Siti Hamidah, Lee Nian Yian, Azizi Mohd

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Elateriospermum tapos seed (buah perah) is the one of the rich sources of polyunsaturated fatty acids. It contains high percentage of oleic acid which is the important component to develop nervous system and also α-linolenic acid (ALA) which is the precursor of omega-3 fatty acids series to synthesize eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). However, there is less study about this valuable oilseed and exploit its potential. Therefore, this paper is to assess the comparison of physico-chemical properties and fatty composition of perah oil to palm oil and soybean oil. From the comparison, perah oil shows low peroxide value means it has good oxidative stability and also high iodine values shows that it can be used in paint industry. The study shown that perah oil is comparable to palm oil and soybean oil, so it has high potential to be exploited in the oleochemical, pharmaceutical, cosmetics and paint industries.

Keywords: α-linolenic acid, palm oil, perah oil, soybean oil

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Authors: Zayed Freah Zeadat

Abstract:

The wellbeing of urban dwellers is strongly associated with the quality and quantity of green infrastructure. Nevertheless, urban green infrastructure is still lagging in many Arab cities, and Jordan is no exception. The capital city of Jordan, Amman, is becoming more urban dense with limited green spaces. The unplanned urban growth in Amman has caused several environmental problems such as urban heat islands, air pollution and lack of green spaces. This study aims to investigate the most suitable drivers to leverage the implementation of urban green infrastructure in Jordan through qualitative and quantitative analysis. The qualitative research includes an extensive literature review to discuss the most common drivers used internationally to promote urban green infrastructure implementation in the literature. The quantitative study employs a questionnaire survey to rank the suitability of each driver. Consultants, contractors and policymakers were invited to fill the research questionnaire according to their judgments and opinions. Relative Importance Index has been used to calculate the weighted average of all drivers and the Kruskal-Wallis test to check the degree of agreement among groups. This study finds that research participants agreed that indirect financial incentives (i.e., tax reductions, reduction in stormwater utility fee, reduction of interest rate, density bonus etc.) are the most effective incentive policy whilst granting sustainability certificate policy is the least effective driver to ensure widespread of UGI is elements in Jordan.

Keywords: sustainable development, urban green infrastructure, relative importance index, urban Jordan

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Authors: Sahbi Farhani

Abstract:

This study investigates the relationship between external debt and military spending in case of India over the period of 1970–2012. In doing so, we have applied the structural break unit root tests to examine stationarity properties of the variables. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to test whether cointegration exists in presence of structural breaks stemming in the series. Our results indicate the cointegration among external debt, military spending, debt servicing, and economic growth. Moreover, military spending and debt servicing add in external debt. Economic growth helps in lowering external debt. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis and Granger causality test reveal that military spending and economic growth cause external debt. The feedback effect also exists between external debt and debt servicing in case of India.

Keywords: External debt, military spending, ARDL approach, structural breaks, India.

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Authors: Debesh R. Roy

Abstract:

The fundamental issue in understanding the origin and growth mechanism of nanomaterials, from a fundamental unit is a big challenging problem to the scientists. Recently, an immense attention is generated to the researchers for prediction of exceptionally stable atomic cluster units as the building units for future smart materials. The present study is a systematic investigation on the stability and electronic properties of a series of bimetallic (semiconductor-alkaline earth) clusters, viz., BxMg3 (x=1-5) is performed, in search for exceptional and/ or unusual stable motifs. A very popular hybrid exchange-correlation functional, B3LYP along with a higher basis set, viz., 6-31+G[d,p] is employed for this purpose under the density functional formalism. The magic stability among the concerned clusters is explained using the jellium model. It is evident from the present study that the magic stability of B4Mg3 cluster arises due to the jellium shell closure.

Keywords: Atomic Clusters, Density Functional Theory, Jellium Model, Magic Clusters, Smart Nanomaterials.

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Authors: Igor Shardakov, Anton Bykov, Alexey Shestakov, Irina Glot

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This article focuses on the cycle of experimental studies of the formation of cracks and debondings in the concrete reinforced with carbon fiber. This research was carried out in Perm National Research Polytechnic University. A series of CFRP-strengthened RC beams was tested to investigate the influence of preload and crack repairing factors on CFRP debonding. IRT was applied to detect the early stage of IC debonding during the laboratory bending tests. It was found that for the beams strengthened under load after crack injecting, СFRP debonding strain is 4-65% lower than for the preliminary strengthened beams. The beams strengthened under the load had a relative area of debonding of 2 times higher than preliminary strengthened beams. The СFRP debonding strain is weakly dependent on the strength of the concrete substrate. For beams with a transverse wrapping anchorage in support sections FRP debonding is not a failure mode.

Keywords: FRP, RC beams, strengthening, IC debonding, infrared thermography, quality control, non-destructive testing methods.

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Authors: Tadayuki Kyoutani, Shigeyuki Haruyama, Ken Kaminishi, Zefry Darmawan

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Japan’s semiconductor industries have developed greatly in recent years. Many were started from a Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) that found at a good circumstance and now become the prosperous industries in the world. Sustainable growth factors that support the creation of spirit value inside the Japanese company were strongly embedded through performance. Those factors were not clearly defined among each company. A series of literature research conducted to explore quantitative text mining about the definition of sustainable growth factors. Sustainable criteria were developed from previous research to verify the definition of the factors. A typical frame work was proposed as a systematical approach to develop sustainable growth factor in a specific company. Result of approach was review in certain period shows that factors influenced in sustainable growth was importance for the company to achieve the goal.

Keywords: SME, manufacture, sustainable, growth factor.

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Authors: Hatem A. Khater, A. Baith Mohamed, Sara M. Kamel

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Software Development Risks Identification (SDRI), using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), is a proposed technique to identify not only the risk factors but also the causes of the appearance of the risk factors in software development life cycle. The method is based on analyzing the probable causes of software development failures before they become problems and adversely affect a project. It uses Fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine the probability of a particular system level failures that are defined by A Taxonomy for Sources of Software Development Risk to deduce failure analysis in which an undesired state of a system by using Boolean logic to combine a series of lower-level events. The major purpose of this paper is to use the probabilistic calculations of Fault Tree Analysis approach to determine all possible causes that lead to software development risk occurrence

Keywords: Software Development Risks Identification (SDRI), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Taxonomy for Software Development Risks (TSDR), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA).

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Authors: Su-Yan Tang, Wei Zhang, Shan Mei, Yi-Fan Zhu

Abstract:

Network-Centric Air Defense Missile Systems (NCADMS) represents the superior development of the air defense missile systems and has been regarded as one of the major research issues in military domain at present. Due to lack of knowledge and experience on NCADMS, modeling and simulation becomes an effective approach to perform operational analysis, compared with those equation based ones. However, the complex dynamic interactions among entities and flexible architectures of NCADMS put forward new requirements and challenges to the simulation framework and models. ABS (Agent-Based Simulations) explicitly addresses modeling behaviors of heterogeneous individuals. Agents have capability to sense and understand things, make decisions, and act on the environment. They can also cooperate with others dynamically to perform the tasks assigned to them. ABS proves an effective approach to explore the new operational characteristics emerging in NCADMS. In this paper, based on the analysis of network-centric architecture and new cooperative engagement strategies for NCADMS, an agent-based simulation framework by expanding the simulation framework in the so-called System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) was designed. The simulation framework specifies components, relationships and interactions between them, the structure and behavior rules of an agent in NCADMS. Based on scenario simulations, information and decision superiority and operational advantages in NCADMS were analyzed; meanwhile some suggestions were provided for its future development.

Keywords: air defense missile systems, network-centric, agent-based simulation, simulation framework, information superiority, decision superiority, operational advantages

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Authors: M. Cizmesija, N. Erjavec, V. Bahovec

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While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.

Keywords: Balance, Business Survey, Confidence Indicators, Industrial Production, Forecasting.

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Authors: Khoo Shin Yee, Lian Yee Cheng, Ong Zhi Chao, Zubaidah Ismail, Siamak Noroozi

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Structural frequency response testing is accurate in identifying the dynamic characteristic of a machinery structure. In practical perspective, conventional structural frequency response testing such as experimental modal analysis with impulse technique (also known as “impulse testing”) has limitation especially on its long acquisition time. The high acquisition time is mainly due to the redundancy procedure where the engineer has to repeatedly perform the test in 3 directions, namely the axial-, horizontal- and vertical-axis, in order to comprehensively define the dynamic behavior of a 3D structure. This is unfavorable to numerous industries where the downtime cost is high. This study proposes to reduce the testing time by using oblique impact. Theoretically, a single oblique impact can induce significant vibration responses and vibration modes in all the 3 directions. Hence, the acquisition time with the implementation of the oblique impulse technique can be reduced by a factor of three (i.e. for a 3D dynamic system). This study initiates an experimental investigation of impulse testing with oblique excitation. A motor-driven test rig has been used for the testing purpose. Its dynamic characteristic has been identified using the impulse testing with the conventional normal impact and the proposed oblique impact respectively. The results show that the proposed oblique impulse testing is able to obtain all the desired natural frequencies in all 3 directions and thus providing a feasible solution for a fast and time effective way of conducting the impulse testing.

Keywords: Frequency response function, impact testing, modal analysis, oblique angle, oblique impact.

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Authors: É. Kónya, E. Szabó, I. Bata-Vidács, T. Deák, M. Ottucsák, N. Adányi, A. Székács

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Spice paprika is a major spice commodity in the European Union (EU), produced locally and imported from non-EU countries, reported not only for chemical and microbiological contamination, but also for fraud. The effective interaction between producers’ quality management practices and government and EU activities is described on the example of spice paprika production and control in Hungary, a country of leading spice paprika producer and per capita consumer in Europe. To demonstrate the importance of various contamination factors in the Hungarian production and EU trade of spice paprika, several aspects concerning food safety of this commodity are presented. Alerts in the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) of the EU between 2005 and 2013, as well as Hungarian state inspection results on spice paprika in 2004 are discussed, and quality non-compliance claims regarding spice paprika among EU member states are summarized in by means of network analysis. Quality assurance measures established along the spice paprika production technology chain at the leading Hungarian spice paprika manufacturer, Kalocsai Fűszerpaprika Zrt. are surveyed with main critical control points identified. The structure and operation of the Hungarian state food safety inspection system is described. Concerted performance of the latter two quality management systems illustrates the effective interaction between internal (manufacturer) and external (state) quality control measures.

Keywords: Spice paprika, quality control, reporting mechanisms, RASFF, vulnerable points, HACCP, BRC Global Standard.

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Authors: Katleho Daniel Makatjane, Diteboho Lawrence Xaba, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke

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The current study investigates the behaviour of time-varying parameters that are based on the score function of the predictive model density at time t. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. The results revealed that there is high persistence of time-varying, as the location parameter is higher and the skewness parameter implied the departure of scale parameter from the normality with the unconditional parameter as 1.5. The results also revealed that there is a perseverance of the leptokurtic behaviour in stock returns which implies the returns are heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS model. Finally, we proposed further researches specifically to model the existence of time-varying parameters with a more detailed model that encounters the heavy tail distribution of the series and computes the risk measure associated with the returns.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score model, stock returns, time-varying.

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Authors: J. Ranjbarn, A. Alibeigloo

Abstract:

In this paper, we present an analytical method for analysis of nano-scale spherical shell subjected to thermo-mechanical shocks based on nonlocal elasticity theory. Thermo-mechanical properties of nano shpere is assumed to be temperature dependent. Governing partial differential equation of motion is solved analytically by using Laplace transform for time domain and power series for spacial domain. The results in Laplace domain is transferred to time domain by employing the fast inverse Laplace transform (FLIT) method. Accuracy of present approach is assessed by comparing the the numerical results with the results of published work in literature. Furtheremore, the effects of non-local parameter and wall thickness on the dynamic characteristics of the nano-sphere are studied.

Keywords: Nano-scale spherical shell, nonlocal elasticity theory, thermomechanical shock.

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