Search results for: Reliability scenario.

Authors: Noorfakhriah Yaakub, Madzlan Napiah

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Public bus service plays a significant role in our society as people movers and to facilitate travels within towns and districts. The quality of service of public bus is always being regarded as poor, or rather, underestimated as second class means of transportation. Reliability of service, or the ability to deliver service as planned, is one key element in perceiving the quality of bus service and the punctuality index is one of the performance parameters in determining the service reliability. This study concentrates on evaluating the reliability performance of bus operation using punctuality index assessment. A week data for each of six city bus routes is recorded using the on-board methodology to calculate the punctuality index for city bus service in Kota Bharu. The results revealed that the punctuality index for the whole city bus network is 94.25% (LOS B).

Keywords: Punctuality Index, Reliability Performance, Service Performance.

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Authors: K. M. Rabiul Karim

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The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of the Masculine Subordination-to-women Stress Scale (MSS) in the rural Bangladeshi population. The scale was validated using a sample of 342 Bangladeshi married men from 5 northwest villages of the country. Exploratory factor analysis revealed a single-factorial structure of the scale: masculine subordination-to-women stress. The MSS also showed adequate reliability and concurrent validity. It appears that the MSS is a reliable and valid instrument to measure masculine subordination-to-women stress for Bangladeshi men. However, further study of the scale is imperative.

Keywords: Reliability, Validity, Masculine Subordination-to-women Stress, and Bangladeshi Rural Men.

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Authors: Nelson J. Cossa, Narayanan S. Potty, Mohd Shahir Liew, Arazi B. Idrus

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The oil and gas industry has moved towards Load and Resistance Factor Design through API RP2A - LRFD and the recently published international standard, ISO-19902, for design of fixed steel offshore structures. The ISO 19902 is intended to provide a harmonized design practice that offers a balanced structural fitness for the purpose, economy and safety. As part of an ongoing work, the reliability analysis of tubular joints of the jacket structure has been carried out to calibrate the load and resistance factors for the design of offshore platforms in Malaysia, as proposed in the ISO. Probabilistic models have been established for the load effects (wave, wind and current) and the tubular joints strengths. In this study the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), coded in MATLAB Software has been employed to evaluate the reliability index of the typical joints, designed using API RP2A - WSD and ISO 19902.

Keywords: FORM, Reliability Analysis, Tubular Joints

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Authors: Soumia Ichoua

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In this paper, we investigate the strategic stochastic air traffic flow management problem which seeks to balance airspace capacity and demand under weather disruptions. The goal is to reduce the need for myopic tactical decisions that do not account for probabilistic knowledge about the NAS near-future states. We present and discuss a scenario-based modeling approach based on a time-space stochastic process to depict weather disruption occurrences in the NAS. A solution framework is also proposed along with a distributed implementation aimed at overcoming scalability problems. Issues related to this implementation are also discussed.

Keywords: Air traffic management, sample average approximation, scenario-based approach, stochastic capacity.

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Authors: Pradeep Kumar, Abdul Wahid

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Accurate software reliability prediction not only enables developers to improve the quality of software but also provides useful information to help them for planning valuable resources. This paper examines the performance of three well-known data mining techniques (CART, TreeNet and Random Forest) for predicting software reliability. We evaluate and compare the performance of proposed models with Cascade Correlation Neural Network (CCNN) using sixteen empirical databases from the Data and Analysis Center for Software. The goal of our study is to help project managers to concentrate their testing efforts to minimize the software failures in order to improve the reliability of the software systems. Two performance measures, Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) and Mean Absolute Errors (MAE), illustrate that CART model is accurate than the models predicted using Random Forest, TreeNet and CCNN in all datasets used in our study. Finally, we conclude that such methods can help in reliability prediction using real-life failure datasets.

Keywords: Classification, Cascade Correlation Neural Network, Random Forest, Software reliability, TreeNet.

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Authors: K. -H. Yang

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Supplier selection problem is one of the important issues of supply chain problems. Two categories of methodologies include qualitative and quantitative approaches which can be applied to supplier selection problems. However, due to the complexities of the problem and lacking of reliable and quantitative data, qualitative approaches are more than quantitative approaches. This study considers operational cost and supplier’s reliability factor and solves the problem by using a quantitative approach. A mixed integer programming model is the primary analytic tool. Analyses of different scenarios with variable cost and reliability structures show that the effectiveness of this approach to the supplier selection problem.

Keywords: Mixed integer programming, quantitative approach, supplier’s reliability, supplier selection.

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Authors: M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, A. Salehi Dobakhshari

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This paper presents a reliability-based approach to select appropriate wind turbine types for a wind farm considering site-specific wind speed patterns. An actual wind farm in the northern region of Iran with the wind speed registration of one year is studied in this paper. An analytic approach based on total probability theorem is utilized in this paper to model the probabilistic behavior of both turbines- availability and wind speed. Well-known probabilistic reliability indices such as loss of load expectation (LOLE), expected energy not supplied (EENS) and incremental peak load carrying capability (IPLCC) for wind power integration in the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) are examined. The most appropriate turbine type achieving the highest reliability level is chosen for the studied wind farm.

Keywords: Wind Turbine Generator, Wind Farm, Power System Reliability, Wind Turbine Type Selection

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Authors: Kong Fah Tee, Lutfor Rahman Khan, Hongshuang Li

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An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.

Keywords: Underground pipelines, Probability of failure, Reliability and Subset Simulation.

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Authors: Sami W. Tabsh

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The strength of reinforced concrete depends on the member dimensions and material properties. The properties of concrete and steel materials are not constant but random variables. The variability of concrete strength is due to batching errors, variations in mixing, cement quality uncertainties, differences in the degree of compaction and disparity in curing. Similarly, the variability of steel strength is attributed to the manufacturing process, rolling conditions, characteristics of base material, uncertainties in chemical composition, and the microstructure-property relationships. To account for such uncertainties, codes of practice for reinforced concrete design impose resistance factors to ensure structural reliability over the useful life of the structure. In this investigation, the effects of reductions in concrete and reinforcing steel strengths from the nominal values, beyond those accounted for in the structural design codes, on the structural reliability are assessed. The considered limit states are flexure, shear and axial compression based on the ACI 318-11 structural concrete building code. Structural safety is measured in terms of a reliability index. Probabilistic resistance and load models are compiled from the available literature. The study showed that there is a wide variation in the reliability index for reinforced concrete members designed for flexure, shear or axial compression, especially when the live-to-dead load ratio is low. Furthermore, variations in concrete strength have minor effect on the reliability of beams in flexure, moderate effect on the reliability of beams in shear, and sever effect on the reliability of columns in axial compression. On the other hand, changes in steel yield strength have great effect on the reliability of beams in flexure, moderate effect on the reliability of beams in shear, and mild effect on the reliability of columns in axial compression. Based on the outcome, it can be concluded that the reliability of beams is sensitive to changes in the yield strength of the steel reinforcement, whereas the reliability of columns is sensitive to variations in the concrete strength. Since the embedded target reliability in structural design codes results in lower structural safety in beams than in columns, large reductions in material strengths compromise the structural safety of beams much more than they affect columns.

Keywords: Code, flexure, limit states, random variables, reinforced concrete, reliability, reliability index, shear, structural safety.

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Authors: Mehmet Nefes, Selman Demirel, Hasan H. Ertok, Cenk Sen

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A typical reliability engineering problem regarding communication satellites has been considered to determine redundancy allocation scheme of power amplifiers within payload transponder module, whose dominant function is to amplify power levels of the received signals from the Earth, through maximizing reliability against mass, power, and other technical limitations. Adding each redundant power amplifier component increases not only reliability but also hardware, testing, and launch cost of a satellite. This study investigates a multi-objective approach used in order to solve Redundancy Allocation Problem (RAP) for a communication satellite payload transponder, focusing on design cost due to redundancy and reliability factors. The main purpose is to find the optimum power amplifier redundancy configuration satisfying reliability and capacity thresholds simultaneously instead of analyzing respectively or independently. A mathematical model and calculation approach are instituted including objective function definitions, and then, the problem is solved analytically with different input parameters in MATLAB environment. Example results showed that payload capacity and failure rate of power amplifiers have remarkable effects on the solution and also processing time.

Keywords: Communication satellite payload, multi-objective optimization, redundancy allocation problem, reliability, transponder.

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Authors: Osamu Saito

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Commercial infrastructures intended for use as leisure retreats such as golf and ski resorts have been extensively developed in many rural areas of Japan. However, following the burst of the economic bubble in the 1990s, several existing resorts faced tough management decisions and some were forced to close their business. In this study, six alternative management options for restructuring the existing golf courses (park, cemetery, biofuel production, reforestation, pasturing and abandonment) are examined and their environmental and economic impacts are quantitatively assessed. In addition, restructuring scenarios of these options and an ex-ante assessment model are developed. The scenario analysis by Monte Carlo simulation shows a clear trade-off between GHG savings and benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, of which “Restoring Nature" scenario absorbs the most CO2 among the four scenarios considered, but its B/C ratio is the lowest. This study can be used to select or examine options and scenarios of golf course management and rural environmental management policies.

Keywords: golf courses, restructuring and management options, scenario analysis, Tokyo Metropolitan Area.

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Authors: Nadheer A. Shalash, Abu Zaharin Bin Ahmad

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Technological developments in industrial innovations have currently been related to interconnected system assistance and distribution networks. This important in order to enable an electrical load to continue receive power in the event of disconnection of load from the main power grid. This paper represents a method for reliability assessment of interconnected power systems based. The multi-agent system consists of four agents. The first agent was the generator agent to using as connected the generator to the grid depending on the state of the reserve margin and the load demand. The second was a load agent is that located at the load. Meanwhile, the third is so-called "the reverse margin agent" that to limit the reserve margin between 0 - 25% depend on the load and the unit size generator. In the end, calculation reliability Agent can be calculate expected energy not supplied (EENS), loss of load expectation (LOLE) and the effecting of tie line capacity to determine the risk levels Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) can use to evaluated the reliability indices by using the developed JADE package. The results estimated of the reliability interconnection power systems presented in this paper. The overall reliability of power system can be improved. Thus, the market becomes more concentrated against demand increasing and the generation units were operating in relation to reliability indices. 

Keywords: Reliability indices, Load expectation, Reserve margin, Daily load, Probability, Multi-agent system.

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Authors: Hyung-Jin Jang, Kwang-Bok Shin, Sung-Ho Han

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This paper describes the crashworthiness assessment and improvement of tlting train made of sandwich composites. The crashworhiness assessment of tilting train was conducted according to four collision scenarios of the Korean railway safety law. Collision analysis was carried out using explicit finite element analysis code LS-DYNA 3D. The finite element model consists of 3-D finite element model and 1-D equivalent model to save the finite element modeling and calculation time. It found that the crashworthiness analysis results were satisfied with the performance requirements except the crash scenario-2. In order to meet the crashworthiness requirements for crash scenario-2, the stiffness reinforcement for the laminate composite cover and metal frames of cabmask structure were proposed. Consequentially, it has satisfied the requirement for crash scenario-2.

Keywords: Crashworthiness, collision scenario, Korean railway safety law, sandwich composite, tilting train.

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Authors: Ki-Young Kim, Jae-Ho Lim, Deok-Min Kim, Seok-Yoon Kim

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Average current analysis checking the impact of current flow is very important to guarantee the reliability of semiconductor systems. As semiconductor process technologies improve, the coupling capacitance often become bigger than self capacitances. In this paper, we propose an analytic technique for analyzing average current on interconnects in multi-conductor structures. The proposed technique has shown to yield the acceptable errors compared to HSPICE results while providing computational efficiency.

Keywords: current moment, interconnect modeling, reliability analysis, worst-case switching

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Authors: Ekkaluk Eksook, Chutima Prommak

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This paper address the network reliability optimization problem in the optical access network design for the 3G cellular systems. We presents a novel 0-1 integer programming model for designing optical access network topologies comprised of multi-rings with common-edge in order to guarantee always-on services. The results show that the proposed model yields access network topologies with the optimal reliablity and satisfies both network cost limitations and traffic demand requirements.

Keywords: Network Reliability, Topological Network Design, 3G Cellular Networks.

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Authors: Yaşar Baykul, Musa Gürsel, Hacı Sulak, Erhan Ertekin, Ersen Yazıcı, Osman Dülger, Yasin Aslan, Kağan Büyükkarcı

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The reliability of the tools developed to learn the learning styles is essential to find out students- learning styles trustworthily. For this purpose, the psychometric features of Grasha- Riechman Student Learning Style Inventory developed by Grasha was studied to contribute to this field. The study was carried out on 6th, 7th, and 8th graders of 10 primary education schools in Konya. The inventory was applied twice with an interval of one month, and according to the data of this application, the reliability coefficient numbers of the 6 sub-dimensions pointed in the theory of the inventory was found to be medium. Besides, it was found that the inventory does not have a structure with 6 factors for both Mathematics and English courses as represented in the theory.

Keywords: Learning styles, Grasha-Riechmann, reliability, validity.

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Authors: Adrián D. García-Soto, Alejandro Hernández-Martínez, Jesús G. Valdés-Vázquez, Reyna A. Vizguerra-Alvarez

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Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.

Keywords: Structural reliability, reinforced concrete bridges, mixing approaches, point estimate method, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Mansab Ali, Muhammad Khalid Khan

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The advances in wireless communication have opened unlimited horizons but there are some challenges as well. The Nature derived air medium between MS (Mobile Station) and BS (Base Station) is beyond human control and produces channel impairment. The impact of the natural conditions at the air medium is the biggest issue in wireless communication. Natural conditions make reliability more cumbersome; here reliability refers to the efficient recovery of the lost or erroneous data. The SR-ARQ (Selective Repeat-Automatic Repeat Request) protocol is a de facto standard for any wireless technology at the air interface with its standard reliability features. Our focus in this research is on the reliability of the control or feedback signal of the SR-ARQ protocol. The proposed mechanism, RSR-ARQ (Reliable SR-ARQ) is an enhancement of the SR-ARQ protocol that has ensured the reliability of the control signals through channel impairment sensitive mechanism. We have modeled the system under two-state discrete time Markov Channel. The simulation results demonstrate the better recovery of the lost or erroneous data that will increase the overall system performance.

Keywords: ISR-ARQ, MAA, RSR-ARQ, SAA.

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Authors: Carl D. Hays III

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The purpose of this theory paper is to add a reliability indicator to Operating Equipment Effectiveness (OpEE) which is used to evaluate the productivity of machines and equipment with wheels and tracks. OpEE is a derivative of Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) which has been widely used for many decades in factories that manufacture products. OEE has three variables, Availability Rate, Work Rate, and Quality Rate. When OpEE was converted from OEE, the Quality Rate variable was replaced with Travel Rate. Travel Rate is essentially utilization which is a common performance indicator in machines and equipment. OpEE was designed for machines operated in remote locations such as forests, roads, fields, and farms. This theory paper intends to add the Quality Rate variable back to OpEE by including a reliability indicator in the dashboard view. This paper will suggest that the OEE quality variable can be used with a reliability metric and combined with the OpEE score. With this dashboard view of both performance metrics and reliability, fleet managers will have a more complete understanding of equipment productivity and reliability. This view will provide both leading and lagging indicators of performance in machines and equipment. The lagging indicators will indicate the trends and the leading indicators will provide an overall performance score to manage.

Keywords: Operating Equipment Effectiveness, Operating Equipment Effectiveness, IoT, Contamination Monitoring.

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Authors: S. T. Tan, H. Hashim, W. S. Ho, C. T. Lee

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Rapid economic development and population growth in Malaysia had accelerated the generation of solid waste. This issue gives pressure for effective management of municipal solid waste (MSW) to take place in Malaysia due to the increased cost of landfill. This paper discusses optimal planning of waste-to-energy (WTE) using a combinatorial simulation and optimization model through mixed integer linear programming (MILP) approach. The proposed multi-period model is tested in Iskandar Malaysia (IM) as case study for a period of 12 years (2011 -2025) to illustrate the economic potential and tradeoffs involved in this study. In this paper, 3 scenarios have been used to demonstrate the applicability of the model: (1) Incineration scenario (2) Landfill scenario (3) Optimal scenario. The model revealed that the minimum cost of electricity generation from 9,995,855 tonnes of MSW is estimated as USD 387million with a total electricity generation of 50MW /yr in the optimal scenario.

Keywords: Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), optimization, solid waste management (SWM), Waste-to-energy (WTE).

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Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi, Mojtaba Mahdavi

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This paper tries to represent a new method for computing the reliability of a system which is arranged in series or parallel model. In this method we estimate life distribution function of whole structure using the asymptotic Extreme Value (EV) distribution of Type I, or Gumbel theory. We use EV distribution in minimal mode, for estimate the life distribution function of series structure and maximal mode for parallel system. All parameters also are estimated by Moments method. Reliability function and failure (hazard) rate and p-th percentile point of each function are determined. Other important indexes such as Mean Time to Failure (MTTF), Mean Time to repair (MTTR), for non-repairable and renewal systems in both of series and parallel structure will be computed.

Keywords: Reliability, extreme value, parallel, series, lifedistribution

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Authors: Yudha Prambudia, Masaru Nakano

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Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.

Keywords: Energy security, modeling, simulation, system dynamics.

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Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski

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The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life-cycle cost of an electric motor.

Keywords: Initial Cost, Life-cycle cost, Maintenance Cost, Reliability.

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Authors: Seyed Ali Sadat Noori, Elham Sahebi Bazaz

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Topological changes in mobile ad hoc networks frequently render routing paths unusable. Such recurrent path failures have detrimental effects on quality of service. A suitable technique for eliminating this problem is to use multiple backup paths between the source and the destination in the network. This paper proposes an effective and efficient protocol for backup and disjoint path set in ad hoc wireless network. This protocol converges to a highly reliable path set very fast with no message exchange overhead. The paths selection according to this algorithm is beneficial for mobile ad hoc networks, since it produce a set of backup paths with more high reliability. Simulation experiments are conducted to evaluate the performance of our algorithm in terms of route numbers in the path set and its reliability. In order to acquire link reliability estimates, we use link expiration time (LET) between two nodes.

Keywords: Wireless Ad Hoc Networks, Reliability, Routing, Disjoint Path

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Authors: L. Heidari, M. Jalili Ghazizade

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This paper aims to determine the best environmental and economic scenario for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management of the Maku city by using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. The functional elements of this study are collection, transportation, and disposal of MSW in Maku city. Waste composition and density, as two key parameters of MSW, have been determined by field sampling, and then, the other important specifications of MSW like chemical formula, thermal energy and water content were calculated. These data beside other information related to collection and disposal facilities are used as a reliable source of data to assess the environmental impacts of different waste management options, including landfills, composting, recycling and energy recovery. The environmental impact of MSW management options has been investigated in 15 different scenarios by Integrated Waste Management (IWM) software. The photochemical smog, greenhouse gases, acid gases, toxic emissions, and energy consumption of each scenario are measured. Then, the environmental indices of each scenario are specified by weighting these parameters. Economic costs of scenarios have been also compared with each other based on literature. As final result, since the organic materials make more than 80% of the waste, compost can be a suitable method. Although the major part of the remaining 20% of waste can be recycled, due to the high cost of necessary equipment, the landfill option has been suggested. Therefore, the scenario with 80% composting and 20% landfilling is selected as superior environmental and economic scenario. This study shows that, to select a scenario with practical applications, simultaneously environmental and economic aspects of different scenarios must be considered.

Keywords: IWM software, life cycle assessment, Maku, municipal solid waste management.

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Authors: Mehdi Seifbarghy, Sajjad Jalali, Seyed Habib A. Rahmati

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Recently studies in area of supply chain network (SCN) have focused on the disruption issues in distribution systems. Also this paper extends the previous literature by providing a new biobjective model for cost minimization of designing a three echelon SCN across normal and failure scenarios with considering multi capacity option for manufacturers and distribution centers. Moreover, in order to solve the problem by means of LINGO software, novel model will be reformulated through a branch of LP-Metric method called Min-Max approach.

Keywords: Scenario programming, Distribution, Multi-echelon supply chain design, Reliable facility

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Authors: Phakhapong Thanitakul, Worawat Sa-ngiamvibool, Apinan Aurasopon, Saravuth Pothiya

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This paper presents an improved ant colony optimization (IACO) for solving the reliability redundancy allocation problem (RAP) in order to maximize system reliability. To improve the performance of ACO algorithm, two additional techniques, i.e. neighborhood search, and re-initialization process are presented. To show its efficiency and effectiveness, the proposed IACO is applied to solve three RAPs. Additionally, the results of the proposed IACO are compared with those of the conventional heuristic approaches i.e. genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and ant colony optimization (ACO). The experimental results show that the proposed IACO approach is comparatively capable of obtaining higher quality solution and faster computational time.

Keywords: Ant colony optimization, Heuristic algorithm, Mixed-integer nonlinear programming, Redundancy allocation problem, Reliability optimization.

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Authors: Alyaa M. Younes, Nermine Harraz, Mohammad H. Elwany

Abstract:

Lithium ion batteries are currently used for many applications including satellites, electric vehicles and mobile electronics. Their ability to store relatively large amount of energy in a limited space make them most appropriate for critical applications. Evaluation of the life of these batteries and their reliability becomes crucial to the systems they support. Reliability of Li-Ion batteries has been mainly considered based on its lifetime. However, another important factor that can be considered critical in many applications such as in electric vehicles is the cycle duration. The present work presents the results of an experimental investigation on the degradation behavior of a Laptop Li-ion battery (type TKV2V) and the effect of applied load on the battery cycle time. The reliability was evaluated using an accelerated life test. Least squares linear regression with median rank estimation was used to estimate the Weibull distribution parameters needed for the reliability functions estimation. The probability density function, failure rate and reliability function under each of the applied loads were evaluated and compared. An inverse power model is introduced that can predict cycle time at any stress level given.

Keywords: Accelerated life test, inverse power law, lithium ion battery, reliability evaluation, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Khalid M. Albarkoly, Kenneth S. Park

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The substantial development of the construction industry has forced the cement industry, its major support, to focus on achieving maximum productivity to meet the growing demand for this material. This means that the reliability of a cement production system needs to be at the highest level that can be achieved by good maintenance. This paper studies the extent to which the implementation of RCM is needed as a strategy for increasing the reliability of the production systems component can be increased, thus ensuring continuous productivity. In a case study of four Libyan cement factories, 80 employees were surveyed and 12 top and middle managers interviewed. It is evident that these factories usually breakdown more often than once per month which has led to a decline in productivity. In many times they cannot achieve the minimum level of production amount. This has resulted from the poor reliability of their production systems as a result of poor or insufficient maintenance. It has been found that most of the factories’ employees misunderstand maintenance and its importance. The main cause of this problem is the lack of qualified and trained staff, but in addition it has been found that most employees are not found to be motivated as a result of a lack of management support and interest. In response to these findings, it has been suggested that the RCM strategy should be implemented in the four factories. The results show the importance of the development of maintenance strategies through the implementation of RCM in these factories. The purpose of it would be to overcome the problems that could secure the reliability of the production systems. This study could be a useful source of information for academic researchers and the industrial organizations which are still experiencing problems in maintenance practices.

Keywords: Libyan cement industry, maintenance, production, reliability centered maintenance, reliability.

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Authors: Nipun Manirajan, Heeralal Gargama, Sushil Guhe, Manoj Prabhakaran

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In railway industry, train sets are designed based on contractual requirements (mission profile), where reliability targets are measured in terms of mean distance between failures (MDBF). However, during the beginning of revenue services, trains do not achieve the designed mission profile distance (mileage) within the timeframe due to infrastructure constraints, scarcity of commuters or other operational challenges thereby not respecting the original design inputs. Since trains do not run sufficiently and do not achieve the designed mileage within the specified time, car builder has a risk of not achieving the contractual MDBF target. This paper proposes a constant failure rate based model to deal with the situations where mileage accumulation is not a part of the design mission profile. The model provides appropriate MDBF target to be demonstrated based on actual accumulated mileage. A case study of rolling stock running in the field is undertaken to analyze the failure data and MDBF target demonstration during low mileage accumulation. The results of case study prove that with the proposed method, reliability targets are achieved under low mileage accumulation.

Keywords: Mean distance between failures, mileage based reliability, reliability target normalization, rolling stock reliability.

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