Search results for: time series.
6277 A New Robust Stability Criterion for Dynamical Neural Networks with Mixed Time Delays
Authors: Guang Zhou, Shouming Zhong
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In this paper, we investigate the problem of the existence, uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for a class of neural networks, the neutral system has mixed time delays and parameter uncertainties. Under the assumption that the activation functions are globally Lipschitz continuous, we drive a new criterion for the robust stability of a class of neural networks with time delays by utilizing the Lyapunov stability theorems and the Homomorphic mapping theorem. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness and the advantage of the proposed main results.
Keywords: Neural networks, Delayed systems, Lyapunov function, Stability analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15756276 Long Term Examination of the Profitability Estimation Focused on Benefits
Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke
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Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14796275 Customization of a Real-Time Operating System Scheduler with Aspect-Oriented Programming
Authors: Kazuki Abe, Myungryun Yoo, Takanori Yokoyama
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Tasks of an application program of an embedded system are managed by the scheduler of a real-time operating system (RTOS). Most RTOSs adopt just fixed priority scheduling, which is not optimal in all cases. Some applications require earliest deadline first (EDF) scheduling, which is an optimal scheduling algorithm. In order to develop an efficient real-time embedded system, the scheduling algorithm of the RTOS should be selectable. The paper presents a method to customize the scheduler using aspectoriented programming. We define aspects to replace the fixed priority scheduling mechanism of an OSEK OS with an EDF scheduling mechanism. By using the aspects, we can customize the scheduler without modifying the original source code. We have applied the aspects to an OSEK OS and get a customized operating system with EDF scheduling. The evaluation results show that the overhead of aspect-oriented programming is small enough.Keywords: aspect-oriented programming, embedded system, operating system, real-time system
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18146274 Physical Parameters for Reliability Evaluation
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This paper presents ageing experiments controlled by the evolution of junction parameters. The deterioration of the device is related to high injection effects which modified the transport mechanisms in the space charge region of the junction. Physical phenomena linked to the degradation of junction parameters that affect the devices reliability are reported and discussed. We have used the method based on numerical analysis of experimental current-voltage characteristic of the junction, in order to extract the electrical parameters. The simultaneous follow-up of the evolutions of the series resistance and of the transition voltage allow us to introduce a new parameter for reliability evaluation.
Keywords: High injection, junction, parameters, reliability
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13636273 A Contractor for the Symmetric Solution Set
Authors: Milan Hladik
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The symmetric solution set Σ sym is the set of all solutions to the linear systems Ax = b, where A is symmetric and lies between some given bounds A and A, and b lies between b and b. We present a contractor for Σ sym, which is an iterative method that starts with some initial enclosure of Σ sym (by means of a cartesian product of intervals) and sequentially makes the enclosure tighter. Our contractor is based on polyhedral approximation and solving a series of linear programs. Even though it does not converge to the optimal bounds in general, it may significantly reduce the overestimation. The efficiency is discussed by a number of numerical experiments.
Keywords: Linear interval systems, solution set, interval matrix, symmetric matrix.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12756272 A Watermarking Scheme for MP3 Audio Files
Authors: Dimitrios Koukopoulos, Yiannis Stamatiou
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In this work, we present for the first time in our perception an efficient digital watermarking scheme for mpeg audio layer 3 files that operates directly in the compressed data domain, while manipulating the time and subband/channel domain. In addition, it does not need the original signal to detect the watermark. Our scheme was implemented taking special care for the efficient usage of the two limited resources of computer systems: time and space. It offers to the industrial user the capability of watermark embedding and detection in time immediately comparable to the real music time of the original audio file that depends on the mpeg compression, while the end user/audience does not face any artifacts or delays hearing the watermarked audio file. Furthermore, it overcomes the disadvantage of algorithms operating in the PCMData domain to be vulnerable to compression/recompression attacks, as it places the watermark in the scale factors domain and not in the digitized sound audio data. The strength of our scheme, that allows it to be used with success in both authentication and copyright protection, relies on the fact that it gives to the users the enhanced capability their ownership of the audio file not to be accomplished simply by detecting the bit pattern that comprises the watermark itself, but by showing that the legal owner knows a hard to compute property of the watermark.Keywords: Audio watermarking, mpeg audio layer 3, hardinstance generation, NP-completeness.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16396271 Development of a Serial Signal Monitoring Program for Educational Purposes
Authors: Jungho Moon, Lae-Jeong Park
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This paper introduces a signal monitoring program developed with a view to helping electrical engineering students get familiar with sensors with digital output. Because the output of digital sensors cannot be simply monitored by a measuring instrument such as an oscilloscope, students tend to have a hard time dealing with digital sensors. The monitoring program runs on a PC and communicates with an MCU that reads the output of digital sensors via an asynchronous communication interface. Receiving the sensor data from the MCU, the monitoring program shows time and/or frequency domain plots of the data in real time. In addition, the monitoring program provides a serial terminal that enables the user to exchange text information with the MCU while the received data is plotted. The user can easily observe the output of digital sensors and configure the digital sensors in real time, which helps students who do not have enough experiences with digital sensors. Though the monitoring program was programmed in the Matlab programming language, it runs without the Matlab since it was compiled as a standalone executable.Keywords: Digital sensor, MATLAB, MCU, signal monitoring program.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21036270 Exploring Value of Time, Shopping Behavior and Shopping Motivation of International Tourists in the Chatuchak Weekend Market
Authors: Chanin Yoopetch, Natcha Toemtemsab
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The purpose of this study was to explore the demographic differences of international tourists according to three main factors, including the value of time, shopping behavior and shopping motivation. The Chatuchak Weekend Market is known as one of the biggest weekend markets in the world. Too little academic studies had been conducted in this area of weekend market, despite its growth and continuous development. In general, both domestic visitors and international tourists are attracted to the perception of cheap and bargaining prices the weekend market. However, systematic research study can provide reliable understanding of the perception of the visitors. This study focused on the group of international tourists who visited the market and aimed to provide better insights based on the differences in their demographic factors. Findings indicated that several differences in value of time, shopping behavior, and shopping motivation were identified by gender, income and age. Research implications and directions for further studies were discussed.Keywords: Value of Time, Shopping Behavior, Shopping Motivation, Chatuchak Weekend Market.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23006269 The Lubrication Regimes Recognition of a Pressure-Fed Journal Bearing by Time and Frequency Domain Analysis of Acoustic Emission Signals
Authors: S. Hosseini, M. Ahmadi Najafabadi, M. Akhlaghi
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The health of the journal bearings is very important in preventing unforeseen breakdowns in rotary machines, and poor lubrication is one of the most important factors for producing the bearing failures. Hydrodynamic lubrication (HL), mixed lubrication (ML), and boundary lubrication (BL) are three regimes of a journal bearing lubrication. This paper uses acoustic emission (AE) measurement technique to correlate features of the AE signals to the three lubrication regimes. The transitions from HL to ML based on operating factors such as rotating speed, load, inlet oil pressure by time domain and time-frequency domain signal analysis techniques are detected, and then metal-to-metal contacts between sliding surfaces of the journal and bearing are identified. It is found that there is a significant difference between theoretical and experimental operating values that are obtained for defining the lubrication regions.Keywords: Acoustic emission technique, pressure fed journal bearing, time and frequency signal analysis, metal-to-metal contact.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7926268 Causes of Final Account Closing Delay: A Theoretical Framework
Authors: Zarabizan Zakaria, Syuhaida Ismail, Aminah Md. Yusof
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Delay can be defined as time overrun or extension of time to complete the project. There are high possibilities that delay issues in final account closing cannot be avoided especially in construction project in Malaysia which is unique and dynamic in the terms of nature of design and technical skill. Delay in final account closing is a situation when the actual planning (time and budget allocation) of a construction project exceeds the planned schedule or on the other hand, final account closing exceeds the time and other provisions specified in the contract. The causes of delay discussed in this paper are appraised from the literature review. There are two main types of delay: excusable delay and non-excusable delay. The literature reviews on the delay in final account closing which is then translated into a theoretical framework are summarized in the context of construction players and academician perspective. It is anticipated that the finding reported in this paper could assist the planning of future strategies and guidelines of final account closing for the betterment of construction projects in Malaysia.
Keywords: Construction industry, construction contract, final account closing, delay.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 46956267 Implementation of Conceptual Real-Time Embedded Functional Design via Drive-by-Wire ECU Development
Authors: A. Ukaew, C. Chauypen
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Design concepts of real-time embedded system can be realized initially by introducing novel design approaches. In this literature, model based design approach and in-the-loop testing were employed early in the conceptual and preliminary phase to formulate design requirements and perform quick real-time verification. The design and analysis methodology includes simulation analysis, model based testing, and in-the-loop testing. The design of conceptual driveby- wire, or DBW, algorithm for electronic control unit, or ECU, was presented to demonstrate the conceptual design process, analysis, and functionality evaluation. The concepts of DBW ECU function can be implemented in the vehicle system to improve electric vehicle, or EV, conversion drivability. However, within a new development process, conceptual ECU functions and parameters are needed to be evaluated. As a result, the testing system was employed to support conceptual DBW ECU functions evaluation. For the current setup, the system components were consisted of actual DBW ECU hardware, electric vehicle models, and control area network or CAN protocol. The vehicle models and CAN bus interface were both implemented as real-time applications where ECU and CAN protocol functionality were verified according to the design requirements. The proposed system could potentially benefit in performing rapid real-time analysis of design parameters for conceptual system or software algorithm development.Keywords: Drive-by-wire ECU, in-the-loop testing, modelbased design, real-time embedded system.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21626266 Removal of Nitrogen Compounds from Industrial Wastewater Using Sequencing Batch Reactor: The Effects of React Time
Authors: Ali W. Alattabi, Khalid S. Hashim, Hassnen M. Jafer, Ali Alzeyadi
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This study was performed to optimise the react time (RT) and study its effects on the removal rates of nitrogen compounds in a sequencing batch reactor (SBR) treating synthetic industrial wastewater. The results showed that increasing the RT from 4 h to 10, 16 and 22 h significantly improved the nitrogen compounds’ removal efficiency, it was increased from 69.5% to 95%, 75.7 to 97% and from 54.2 to 80.1% for NH3-N, NO3-N and NO2-N respectively. The results obtained from this study showed that the RT of 22 h was the optimum for nitrogen compounds removal efficiency.Keywords: Ammonia-nitrogen, retention time, nitrate, nitrite, sequencing batch reactor, sludge characteristics.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10556265 Parameters Estimation of Double Diode Solar Cell Model
Authors: M. R. AlRashidi, K. M. El-Naggar, M. F. AlHajri
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A new technique based on Pattern search optimization is proposed for estimating different solar cell parameters in this paper. The estimated parameters are the generated photocurrent, saturation current, series resistance, shunt resistance, and ideality factor. The proposed approach is tested and validated using double diode model to show its potential. Performance of the developed approach is quite interesting which signifies its potential as a promising estimation tool.
Keywords: Solar Cell, Parameter Estimation, Pattern Search.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 59616264 Comparison of S-transform and Wavelet Transform in Power Quality Analysis
Authors: Mohammad Javad Dehghani
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In the power quality analysis non-stationary nature of voltage distortions require some precise and powerful analytical techniques. The time-frequency representation (TFR) provides a powerful method for identification of the non-stationary of the signals. This paper investigates a comparative study on two techniques for analysis and visualization of voltage distortions with time-varying amplitudes. The techniques include the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), and the S-Transform. Several power quality problems are analyzed using both the discrete wavelet transform and S–transform, showing clearly the advantage of the S– transform in detecting, localizing, and classifying the power quality problems.Keywords: Power quality, S-Transform, Short Time FourierTransform , Wavelet Transform, instantaneous sag, swell.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27976263 Influence of Hydraulic Retention Time on Biogas Production from Frozen Seafood Wastewater using Decanter Cake as Anaerobic Co-digestion Material
Authors: Thaniya Kaosol, Narumol Sohgrathok
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In this research, an anaerobic co-digestion using decanter cake from palm oil mill industry to improve the biogas production from frozen seafood wastewater is studied using Continuously Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR) process. The experiments were conducted in laboratory-scale. The suitable Hydraulic Retention Time (HRT) was observed in CSTR experiments with 24 hours of mixing time using the mechanical mixer. The HRT of CSTR process impacts on the efficiency of biogas production. The best performance for biogas production using CSTR process was the anaerobic codigestion for 20 days of HRT with the maximum methane production rate of 1.86 l/d and the average maximum methane production of 64.6%. The result can be concluded that the decanter cake can improve biogas productivity of frozen seafood wastewater.
Keywords: anaerobic co-digestion, frozen seafood wastewater, decanter cake, biogas, hydraulic retention time
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 46516262 Smart Power Scheduling to Reduce Peak Demand and Cost of Energy in Smart Grid
Authors: Hemant I. Joshi, Vivek J. Pandya
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This paper discusses the simulation and experimental work of small Smart Grid containing ten consumers. Smart Grid is characterized by a two-way flow of real-time information and energy. RTP (Real Time Pricing) based tariff is implemented in this work to reduce peak demand, PAR (peak to average ratio) and cost of energy consumed. In the experimental work described here, working of Smart Plug, HEC (Home Energy Controller), HAN (Home Area Network) and communication link between consumers and utility server are explained. Algorithms for Smart Plug, HEC, and utility server are presented and explained in this work. After receiving the Real Time Price for different time slots of the day, HEC interacts automatically by running an algorithm which is based on Linear Programming Problem (LPP) method to find the optimal energy consumption schedule. Algorithm made for utility server can handle more than one off-peak time period during the day. Simulation and experimental work are carried out for different cases. At the end of this work, comparison between simulation results and experimental results are presented to show the effectiveness of the minimization method adopted.
Keywords: Smart Grid, Real Time Pricing, Peak to Average Ratio, Home Area Network, Home Energy Controller, Smart Plug, Utility Server, Linear Programming Problem.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16696261 Modeling of Material Removal on Machining of Ti-6Al-4V through EDM using Copper Tungsten Electrode and Positive Polarity
Authors: M. M. Rahman, Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, K. Kadirgama M. M. Noor, Rosli A. Bakar
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This paper deals optimized model to investigate the effects of peak current, pulse on time and pulse off time in EDM performance on material removal rate of titanium alloy utilizing copper tungsten as electrode and positive polarity of the electrode. The experiments are carried out on Ti6Al4V. Experiments were conducted by varying the peak current, pulse on time and pulse off time. A mathematical model is developed to correlate the influences of these variables and material removal rate of workpiece. Design of experiments (DOE) method and response surface methodology (RSM) techniques are implemented. The validity test of the fit and adequacy of the proposed models has been carried out through analysis of variance (ANOVA). The obtained results evidence that as the material removal rate increases as peak current and pulse on time increases. The effect of pulse off time on MRR changes with peak ampere. The optimum machining conditions in favor of material removal rate are verified and compared. The optimum machining conditions in favor of material removal rate are estimated and verified with proposed optimized results. It is observed that the developed model is within the limits of the agreeable error (about 4%) when compared to experimental results. This result leads to desirable material removal rate and economical industrial machining to optimize the input parameters.Keywords: Ti-6Al-4V, material removal rate, copper tungsten, positive polarity, RSM.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25226260 Study the Influence of Chemical Treatment on the Compositional Changes and Defect Structures of ZnS Thin Film
Authors: N. Dahbi, D-E. Arafah
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The effect of chemical treatment in CdCl2 on the compositional changes and defect structures of potentially useful ZnS solar cell thin films prepared by vacuum deposition method was studied using the complementary Rutherford backscattering (RBS) and Thermoluminesence (TL) techniques. A series of electron and hole traps are found in the various as deposited samples studied. After treatment, perturbation on the intensity is noted; mobile defect states and charge conversion and/or transfer between defect states are found.Keywords: chemical treatment, defect, glow curve, RBS, thinfilm, thermoluminescence, ZnS, vacuum deposition
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15846259 Evaluation of Optimal Residence Time in a Hot Rolled Reheating Furnace
Authors: Dong-Eun Lee
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To calculate the temperature distribution of the slab in a hot rolled reheating furnace a mathematical model has been developed by considering the thermal radiation in the furnace and transient conduction in the slab. The furnace is modeled as radiating medium with spatially varying temperature. Radiative heat flux within the furnace including the effect of furnace walls, combustion gases, skid beams and buttons is calculated using the FVM and is applied as the boundary condition of the transient conduction equation of the slab. After determining the slab emissivity by comparison between simulation and experimental work, variation of heating characteristics in the slab is investigated in the case of changing furnace temperature with various time and the slab residence time is optimized with this evaluation.Keywords: Reheating Furnace, Thermal Radiation, ResidenceTime, FVM for Radiation
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24836258 Simulation of a Process Design Model for Anaerobic Digestion of Municipal Solid Wastes
Authors: Asok Adak, Debabrata Mazumder, Pratip Bandyopadhyay
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Anaerobic Digestion has become a promising technology for biological transformation of organic fraction of the municipal solid wastes (MSW). In order to represent the kinetic behavior of such biological process and thereby to design a reactor system, development of a mathematical model is essential. Addressing this issue, a simplistic mathematical model has been developed for anaerobic digestion of MSW in a continuous flow reactor unit under homogeneous steady state condition. Upon simulated hydrolysis, the kinetics of biomass growth and substrate utilization rate are assumed to follow first order reaction kinetics. Simulation of this model has been conducted by studying sensitivity of various process variables. The model was simulated using typical kinetic data of anaerobic digestion MSW and typical MSW characteristics of Kolkata. The hydraulic retention time (HRT) and solid retention time (SRT) time were mainly estimated by varying different model parameters like efficiency of reactor, influent substrate concentration and biomass concentration. Consequently, design table and charts have also been prepared for ready use in the actual plant operation.Keywords: Anaerobic digestion, municipal solid waste (MSW), process design model, simulation study, hydraulic retention time(HRT), solid retention time (SRT).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 26646257 The Design of PIP Controller for a Thermal System with Large Time Delay
Authors: Seiyed Hamid Zareh, Atabak Sarrafan, Kambiz Ghaemi Osgouie
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This paper will first describe predictor controllers when the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers are inactive for procedures that have large delay time (LDT) in transfer stage. Therefore in those states, the predictor controllers are better than the PID controllers, then compares three types of predictor controllers. The value of these controller-s parameters are obtained by trial and error method, so here an effort has been made to obtain these parameters by Ziegler-Nichols method. Eventually in this paper Ziegler-Nichols method has been described and finally, a PIP controller has been designed for a thermal system, which circulates hot air to keep the temperature of a chamber constant.Keywords: Proportional-integral-predictive controller, Transferfunction, Delay time, Transport-lag.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17696256 A Value-Oriented Metamodel for Small and Medium Enterprises’ Decision Making
Authors: Romain Ben Taleb, Aurélie Montarnal, Matthieu Lauras, Mathieu Dahan, Romain Miclo
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To be competitive and sustainable, any company has to maximize its value. However, unlike listed companies that can assess their values based on market shares, most Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) which are non-listed cannot have direct and live access to this critical information. Traditional accounting reports only give limited insights to SME decision-makers about the real impact of their day-to-day decisions on the company’s performance and value. Most of the time, an SME’s financial valuation is made one time a year as the associated process is time and resource-consuming, requiring several months and external expertise to be completed. To solve this issue, we propose in this paper a value-oriented metamodel that enables real-time and dynamic assessment of the SME’s value based on the large definition of their assets. These assets cover a wider scope of resources of the company and better account for immaterial assets. The proposal, which is illustrated in a case study, discusses the benefits of incorporating assets in the SME valuation.
Keywords: SME, metamodel, decision support system, financial valuation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3976255 A Fast Sensor Relocation Algorithm in Wireless Sensor Networks
Authors: Yu-Chen Kuo, Shih-Chieh Lin
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Sensor relocation is to repair coverage holes caused by node failures. One way to repair coverage holes is to find redundant nodes to replace faulty nodes. Most researches took a long time to find redundant nodes since they randomly scattered redundant nodes around the sensing field. To record the precise position of sensor nodes, most researches assumed that GPS was installed in sensor nodes. However, high costs and power-consumptions of GPS are heavy burdens for sensor nodes. Thus, we propose a fast sensor relocation algorithm to arrange redundant nodes to form redundant walls without GPS. Redundant walls are constructed in the position where the average distance to each sensor node is the shortest. Redundant walls can guide sensor nodes to find redundant nodes in the minimum time. Simulation results show that our algorithm can find the proper redundant node in the minimum time and reduce the relocation time with low message complexity.Keywords: Coverage, distributed algorithm, sensor relocation, wireless sensor networks.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15456254 Copper Price Prediction Model for Various Economic Situations
Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin
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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.
Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1566253 Open Source Algorithms for 3D Geo-Representation of Subsurface Formations Properties in the Oil and Gas Industry
Authors: Gabriel Quintero
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This paper presents the result of the implementation of a series of algorithms intended to be used for representing in most of the 3D geographic software, even Google Earth, the subsurface formations properties combining 2D charts or 3D plots over a 3D background, allowing everyone to use them, no matter the economic size of the company for which they work. Besides the existence of complex and expensive specialized software for modeling subsurface formations based on the same information provided to this one, the use of this open source development shows a higher and easier usability and good results, limiting the rendered properties and polygons to a basic set of charts and tubes.
Keywords: Chart, earth, formations, subsurface, visualization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19076252 Speeding up Nonlinear Time History Analysis of Base-Isolated Structures Using a Nonlinear Exponential Model
Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino
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The nonlinear time history analysis of seismically base-isolated structures can require a significant computational effort when the behavior of each seismic isolator is predicted by adopting the widely used differential equation Bouc-Wen model. In this paper, a nonlinear exponential model, able to simulate the response of seismic isolation bearings within a relatively large displacements range, is described and adopted in order to reduce the numerical computations and speed up the nonlinear dynamic analysis. Compared to the Bouc-Wen model, the proposed one does not require the numerical solution of a nonlinear differential equation for each time step of the analysis. The seismic response of a 3d base-isolated structure with a lead rubber bearing system subjected to harmonic earthquake excitation is simulated by modeling each isolator using the proposed analytical model. The comparison of the numerical results and computational time with those obtained by modeling the lead rubber bearings using the Bouc-Wen model demonstrates the good accuracy of the proposed model and its capability to reduce significantly the computational effort of the analysis.
Keywords: Base isolation, computational efficiency, nonlinear exponential model, nonlinear time history analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 9616251 Improving Air Temperature Prediction with Artificial Neural Networks
Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom
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The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27036250 Delay-independent Stabilization of Linear Systems with Multiple Time-delays
Authors: Ping He, Heng-You Lan, Gong-Quan Tan
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The multidelays linear control systems described by difference differential equations are often studied in modern control theory. In this paper, the delay-independent stabilization algebraic criteria and the theorem of delay-independent stabilization for linear systems with multiple time-delays are established by using the Lyapunov functional and the Riccati algebra matrix equation in the matrix theory. An illustrative example and the simulation result, show that the approach to linear systems with multiple time-delays is effective.Keywords: Linear system, Delay-independent stabilization, Lyapunovfunctional, Riccati algebra matrix equation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17546249 A Broadcasting Strategy for Interactive Video-on-Demand Services
Authors: Yu-Wei Chen, Li-Ren Han
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In this paper, we employ the approach of linear programming to propose a new interactive broadcast method. In our method, a film S is divided into n equal parts and broadcast via k channels. The user simultaneously downloads these segments from k channels into the user-s set-top-box (STB) and plays them in order. Our method assumes that the initial p segments will not have fast-forwarding capabilities. Every time the user wants to initiate d times fast-forwarding, according to our broadcasting strategy, the necessary segments already saved in the user-s STB or are just download on time for playing. The proposed broadcasting strategy not only allows the user to pause and rewind, but also to fast-forward.Keywords: Broadcasting, Near Video-on-Demand (VOD), Linear Programming, Video-Cassette-Recorder (VCR) Functions, Waiting Time.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17306248 Fast and Efficient Algorithms for Evaluating Uniform and Nonuniform Lagrange and Newton Curves
Authors: Taweechai Nuntawisuttiwong, Natasha Dejdumrong
Abstract:
Newton-Lagrange Interpolations are widely used in numerical analysis. However, it requires a quadratic computational time for their constructions. In computer aided geometric design (CAGD), there are some polynomial curves: Wang-Ball, DP and Dejdumrong curves, which have linear time complexity algorithms. Thus, the computational time for Newton-Lagrange Interpolations can be reduced by applying the algorithms of Wang-Ball, DP and Dejdumrong curves. In order to use Wang-Ball, DP and Dejdumrong algorithms, first, it is necessary to convert Newton-Lagrange polynomials into Wang-Ball, DP or Dejdumrong polynomials. In this work, the algorithms for converting from both uniform and non-uniform Newton-Lagrange polynomials into Wang-Ball, DP and Dejdumrong polynomials are investigated. Thus, the computational time for representing Newton-Lagrange polynomials can be reduced into linear complexity. In addition, the other utilizations of using CAGD curves to modify the Newton-Lagrange curves can be taken.Keywords: Newton interpolation, Lagrange interpolation, linear complexity.
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